Market Snapshot* DJIA 17875.42 -5.42 4910.23 -7.07 S&P 500 2076.33 -4.28 10-Year 1.8936% 3/32 Nasdaq 30-Year Euro Tuesday, April 07, 2015 Nymex Crude Source: SIX Telekurs, ICAP plc Stocks U.S. stocks declined, continuing a pattern of erratic behavior where gains and losses fail to last more than one or two sessions. Investors and traders say market attention has turned to corporate results. First-quarter earnings are expected to decline due to a stronger dollar and its effect on profits at large multinational companies, and weaker commodity prices and their impact on energy companies. In all, analysts expect earnings at S&P 500 companies to fall 4.9% from a year earlier, according to FactSet. Treasurys Long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds strengthened on Tuesday as buyers stepped in following a recent selloff. Bond prices had fallen since the start of Monday as higher stocks and new debt supply sapped demand for haven assets. Yet weaker prices--which sent yields higher--attracted fresh buying interest. Forex The dollar rose against the euro and the yen for a second straight day, undoing the damage a weak U.S. jobs report wrought, as investors returned to their outlook for a stronger U.S. economy and higher interest rates. The euro dropped 0.7% to $1.0851, falling 1.1% since Friday. The dollar climbed 0.7% to Y120.31, on pace for its highest close since March 19. 23/32 -0.0124 $53.98 +1.84 *preliminary values subject to adjustments Tomorrow’s Headlines FedEx to Buy TNT Express for $4.8B FedEx Corp. on Tuesday said it agreed to buy Dutch package-delivery company TNT Express NV for $4.8 billion in an all-cash deal, making an end run around rival United Parcel Service Inc. and positioning itself for a big boost from the booming European e-commerce business. FedEx already has a sizable air-express delivery operation in Europe, but it lags behind in the ground-delivery business. Acquiring TNT would give it an established door-to-door rood network in Europe that connects more than 40 countries, saving the U.S.-based company the time and money required to build one from scratch. “The combination of FedEx’s existing network and TNT’s broad ground-based network will offer tremendous opportunities for us as a result of enhanced coverage, a broader portfolio, obviously, better pickup and delivery cost; and, obviously we’re very excited about those opportunities,” said T. Michael Glenn, FedEx’s executive vice president of market development, on a conference call with analysts. But the FedEx-TNT deal is subject to approval by European Union regulators. In January 2013, EU regulators quashed an effort by UPS to acquire TNT for about $7 billion, unraveling an agreement that was about a year in the making. Then, as now, executives of both companies were sure that regulators would green-light the deal. FedEx officials said on Tuesday’s conference call that things are different this time around. FedEx has a smaller footprint in Europe than UPS and overlaps less with TNT’s existing business. They said their merger would create a stronger competitor to UPS and Deutsche Post DHL Group’s DHL unit, the market’s dominant players. continued on page 2 Tomorrow’s Calendar 7:00 a.m. Commodities The benchmark U.S. oil price jumped to a 2015 high on Tuesday on fresh signs that the nation's production is on the brink of a decline. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday that U.S. crude-oil output, which hit a 42year high in March, would peak in April and May before falling from June to September. The forecast comes a day after analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted peak production would come this month. 2.53% $1.08175 04/03 MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey Market Composite Index (previous 457), Cur Chg (previous +4.6%), Purchase Index (S.A.) (previous 188.9), Cur Chg (previous +5.7%), Refinance Index (previous 2008.7), Cur Chg (previous +3.9%) 9:30 a.m. IMF Global Financial Stability Report analytical chapters 10:00 a.m. Feb Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment 10:30 a.m. 04/03 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude Oil Stocks (previous 471.44M), (Net Change) (previous +4.77M), Gasoline Stocks (previous 229.13M), (Net Change) (previous -4.26M), Distillate Stocks (previous 127.17M), (Net Change) (previous +1.33M), Refinery Usage (previous 89.4%), Total Products Supplied (previous 19.48M), Total Products Supplied (Net Change) (previous +0.78M) 11:00 a.m. IMF Fiscal Monitor analytical chapters 2:00 p.m. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast Copyright © Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. www.dowjones.com page 1 Tuesday, April 07, 2015 4 p.m. ET Tomorrow’s Headlines Most Fed officials expect to begin raising interest rates in 2015 as the economy improves, though the precise timing of the first increase remains uncertain. continued Informatica Taken Private in $5.3B Deal Informatica Corp. agreed to be bought by Permira Advisers LLC and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board for $5.3 billion in the largest leveraged buyout so far this year. Permira and CPPIB will pay $48.75 a share for the Redwood City, Calif., data-software company, according to a statement confirming an earlier report in The Wall Street Journal. The per-share price is about 6% above the company’s closing price Monday of $45.83. Shares of Informatica had risen in anticipation of a possible deal as private-equity groups vied in an auction of the company. The Journal reported in January that the company was working with investment bankers and had made contact with potential buyers. Informatica helps companies organize and analyze broad swaths of information, tapping the growing demand for help with managing what is known as big data. The company had revenue of around $1 billion in 2014, up about 11%. Also in January, Elliott Management Corp. revealed that it owned about 8% of Informatica. The hedge fund said it saw the company as “significantly undervalued” and that it had initiated talks with Informatica’s management and board of directors regarding “steps to maximize shareholder value.” Elliott said in February that it had lifted its stake to 9.4%. Obama To Present Climate Change as Public-Health Hazard President Barack Obama will make the case that climate change is hazardous to public health as the White House launches an initiative aimed at addressing its effects on communities. The president will highlight the link between climate change and public health during a round-table discussion Tuesday afternoon at Howard University. The event and the White House’s rollout of several other actions are intended to convey the urgent need to prepare for and reduce the consequences of climate change, administration officials said. Kocherlakota: Fed Should Be ‘Extraordinarily Patient’ The Federal Reserve should be “extraordinarily patient” and hold off on raising interest rates until the second half of 2016, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said Tuesday. The U.S. central bank “can only achieve its congressionally mandated price and employment goals by being extraordinarily patient in reducing the level of monetary accommodation,” Mr. Kocherlakota said in remarks prepared for delivery in Bismarck, N.D. “Under my current outlook, I continue to believe that it would be a mistake to raise the target range for the fed funds rate in 2015.” But Mr. Kocherlakota, a vocal advocate for aggressive stimulus who is set to leave office in early 2016, has repeatedly argued against raising interest rates this year. In his remarks on Tuesday, he said it would be “appropriate” for the Fed to “defer the initial interest-rate increase until the second half of 2016,” and then raise the benchmark federal funds rate to roughly 2% by the end of 2017. That is a more gradual rise than most officials expect; in March, the median of policy makers’ projection for the fed-funds rate at the end of 2017 was 3.125%. Berkshire To Buy Stake in Axalta Coating Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has agreed to buy an 8.7% stake in paint maker Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. from private-equity firm Carlyle Group LP. Carlyle, which currently holds a 74.1% controlling stake in the company, according to FactSet, recently announced plans to pare back its stake in Axalta through a secondary offering of 40 million shares. Carlyle bought Axalta from DuPont Co. in 2013 in a $4.9 billion deal and took the company public in November in a $1 billion offering that priced at $19.50 a share. Carlyle said it would sell 20 million shares to an affiliate of Berkshire for $560 million through a private placement. The price of $28 a share is just below Axalta’s closing price of $28.33 a share on Monday. Berkshire, which also owns paint company Benjamin Moore & Co., will become Axalta’s largest shareholder behind Carlyle. Steven Cohen’s Firm Appoints New Advisory Board Steven A. Cohen’s investment firm appointed a new external advisory board, according to a person familiar with the matter, the latest public attempt by the firm to demonstrate tighter oversight after its predecessor admitted to insider trading. The six-person board includes former New York City schools chancellor Joel Klein, ex-Hearst Corp. Chief Executive Victor Ganzi and Yale School of Management lecturer Richard Foster, the person said. Mr. Klein is now chief executive officer at Amplify, which, like The Wall Street Journal, is owned by News Corp. SEC Charges Former Giants Player with Fraud The Securities and Exchange Commission announced fraud charges Tuesday against former New York Giants player William “Will” D. Allen and his business partner for allegedly operating a Ponzi scheme that raised more than $31 million by claiming to make loans to professional athletes. Copyright © Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. www.dowjones.com continued on page 3 page 2 Tuesday, April 07, 2015 4 p.m. ET Tomorrow’s Headlines The recovery of remains has been slow, with workers able to uncover only as many as two graves each day, said Mr. Tamimi, head of the operations room for general security for the Iraqi cabinet. continued According to the SEC’s complaint, which was unsealed late Monday, Mr. Allen and his business partner Susan C. Daub, a financial professional, claimed to make loans to professional athletes who were short of cash. Boeing Edges Out Airbus for New Plane Orders Boeing Co. edged out rival Airbus Group NV in first quarter jetliner net order bookings, with the U.S. plane maker also delivering more aircraft. Airbus booked 84 new orders in March to bring its first quarter gross deals for 2015 to 121 aircraft, the Toulousebased company on Tuesday said in a statement. That was ahead of Boeing, though the European manufacturer also suffered 20 jet cancellations in the three months leaving its net bookings nine aircraft behind Boeing’s 110 net order intake over the same period. Volkswagen To Expand Tennesee Plant Volkswagen AG intends to increase the size of its Chattanooga, Tenn., assembly plant despite slumping sales. The company has won approval from local government authorities to increase the expansion of its body shop by 130,153-square feet to accommodate current and future production needs, factory spokesman Scott Wilson confirmed by email Tuesday. “Taking this action now saves money while giving us flexibility,” Mr. Wilson said. “This decision extends the already under construction building a bit further out.” The expansion will boost the original body-shop size by another 25%. Construction on the shop began in January. Orange in Talks to Sell 80% In Dailymotion Orange SA on Tuesday agreed to enter into exclusive talks to sell a majority stake in video-streaming site Dailymotion to Vivendi SA, a deal that looks set to end the telecommunications operator’s protracted and politically sensitive hunt for a partner to develop the site. In a joint statement, the companies said Vivendi has offered to buy 80% in Dailymotion for EUR217 million ($235 million). Orange will keep the remaining 20% stake if the companies reach a deal at the end of the exclusive talks, the groups said. The deal with Vivendi would assure that French companies retain control of Dailymotion after the French government twice prevented Orange from selling a stake in the site to a foreign company. Ball: US Seeks More Information On Rexam Deal Ball Corp. said the U.S. Federal Trade Commission has requested additional information regarding Ball’s GBP4.4 billion ($6.7 billion) deal to buy Rexam PLC. Ball said this second request is a standard part of the regulatory process. Broomfield, Colorado-based Ball is a 135year-old company famous for its glass canning jars. Canmaker Rexam is based in the U.K. Shares, which have been up about 5% this year through Monday’s close, fell 0.8% in morning trading. The move comes as VW struggles with declining U.S. vehicles sales because of a lack of crossovers and sport-utility vehicles in its American portfolio. VW’s March sales dropped 18% to 30,025 vehicles from the same period a year earlier. Sales have fallen 9.3% year to date through the end of March. The deal announced in February, if approved, would create one of the world’s biggest consumer-packaging suppliers. Ball’s purchase would combine two of the world’s largest can makers, which together with Philadelphia-based Crown Holdings Inc. account for more than 60% of global beverage-can volumes and close to 90% in Europe and the Americas, according to Rexam’s website. Rexam’s customers include Coca-Cola Co. and PepsiCo Inc. Iraqi Teams Exhume Dozens Of Bodies From Tikrit Graves Hedge-Fund Manager Challenges Jazz Pharma Patent Iraqi forensics teams on Tuesday exhumed from mass graves the remains of dozens of men thought to be among the estimated 1,700 Iraqi air force cadets massacred by Islamic State forces last year, in yet another grisly reminder of the atrocities committed by the extremist group. Hedge-fund manager Kyle Bass filed a patent challenge late Monday against Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC and its narcolepsy drug Xyrem. Thirty-seven bodies were recovered from 11 graves in Tikrit, said Mohammed al-Tamimi, who is helping lead the investigation. The exhumations come just days after government forces recaptured the city from Islamic State fighters following a month-long battle. The challenge was the latest salvo in Mr. Bass’s new battle against pharmaceutical companies that he believes host spurious patents to keep drug prices artificially high. The challenge was filed in the name of the Coalition for Affordable Drugs, an organization partly controlled by Mr. Bass. Xyrem had sales of $778.58 million last year, which represented 66.4% of the company’s total revenues. Copyright © Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. www.dowjones.com page 3 Tuesday, April 07, 2015 4 p.m. ET Copyright Dow Jones & Co., Inc. Talking Points Tomorrow's News Today is made available as a complimentary service to Dow Jones News Service paying subscribers. No further redistribution is permitted without written permission from Dow Jones. Tomorrow’s News Today is intended to provide factual information, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Dow Jones is not a registered investment adviser, and under no circumstances shall any of the information provided be construed as a buy or sell recommendation or investment advice of any kind. Bankers Strike Out On Their Own Want to send a co-branded daily version to your valued clients? Dow Jones offers subscribing firms the opportunity to co-brand Tomorrow's News Today for redistribution to their clients. If your firm is interested in co-branding, please contact us at service@dowjones.com or 1.800.223.2274. A veteran Wall Street banker, Guy Phillips never gave much thought to how companies paid employees until he left his senior position at UBS AG to start his own wealth-advisory firm. Setting up a payroll system was just part of a steep learning curve for the 48year-old Mr. Phillips, who since he launched NuOrion Partners in 2013 has had to educate himself on everything from health insurance to the optimal color palettes for business cards. He spent part of a family vacation in Beverly Hills, Calif., browsing shops on Rodeo Drive for inspiration on designing a “luxe” website. “I know more now about fonts than I ever have in my life,” he said. The financial crisis rocked and reshaped Wall Street, forcing many people to reassess their careers. Since then, a steady stream of executives has left Wall Street firms and multimillion-dollar salaries to hang out their own shingles. But for many, the allure of autonomy quickly gives way to everyday realities that can be jarring. Some begin to wrestle with existential questions, weighing the value of financial security against professional fulfillment. Others simply struggle to transition from a relatively coddled life of chauffeured town cars and teams of junior staffers to days filled managing the books and picking the office furniture. Gerry Cardinale, former co-head of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Americas private-equity investing business who started RedBird Capital Partners in 2013, compared the experience to bungee-jumping off a bridge. “After 20 years of being at Goldman, I was scared,” he said. The securities industry cut 28,000 jobs in New York alone during the financial crisis in 2008-2009, according to a March report by the state comptroller. Even after an uptick last year, employment is 11% lower than before the crisis as a wobbly economy and new regulations aimed at reducing risk hobbled big global banks, forcing them to cut jobs and pay. Some senior bankers who decided to go it alone said they were driven to their decisions in an atmosphere of uncertainty and low morale. Mr. Phillips said he left because he saw an opportunity in the wealth-advisory industry that he felt large banks couldn’t seize because they were hamstrung by bigger problems. “Banks used to be pretty entrepreneurial,” said Mr. Phillips, whose NuOrion Partners caters to rich families looking to make direct investments. “But now, banks don’t value an entrepreneurial approach. So anyone who is that wants to get out.” Many bankers who leave Wall Street do so with significant resources. They often have assets and savings squirreled away from years of working at high-paying jobs. Still, the jump from Wall Street to entrepreneurship, and any potential fall, can be steep. Unlike in Silicon Valley, where entrepreneurs benefit from an ingrained startup culture and network of venture-capital backers, Wall Street exiles often launch startups midcareer and without an equivalent institutional framework. Blackstone Group LP co-founder Stephen Schwarzman recently told students at a Harvard Business School event that entrepreneurship in finance is an apprenticeship, and it takes years to get the skills required to start a new firm. Only those with something unique to offer should go solo, he said, according to a person who heard him speak. Many Wall Street exiles end up dipping into their savings to fund ventures. Recruiters said the average initial investment for finance-industry startups is at least $2 million, before employee costs. As a result, bankers’ second starts are rarely splashy affairs. Some call on past connections and seek out freebies where they can, borrowing executive assistants from investors, working out of a coffee shop or a friend’s office. continued on page 5 Copyright © Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. www.dowjones.com page 4 Tuesday, April 07, 2015 4 p.m. ET Talking Points continued Milton Berlinski, a founding member of Goldman Sachs’s financial institutions investment-banking group, hopped from one work location to another as he figured out what he wanted to do after he left the bank in 2012. IMF: Labor Force Getting Too Old In West Time is running out for policy makers in the world’s largest economies to return to a healthier growth path. That is the latest warning from the International Monetary Fund, which said in a new report Tuesday that aging populations and sluggish advances in worker productivity are quickly binding the global economy to a bleaker, low-growth fate. Potential growth—the ability of economies to expand based on the available labor supply, know-how and capital—fell in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. While central banks offered years of cheap money, many governments failed to use the easier financial conditions to restructure their economies. As a result, the IMF said it sees stagnating growth potential in the next five years. “Increasing potential output will need to be a policy priority in major advanced and emerging market economies,” the IMF said in an analytical chapter of the fund’s latest World Economic Outlook. The report, due to be published in full on April 14, sets a gloomy tone for the annual meetings of the world’s finance ministers and central bankers in Washington later in the week. Potential output in advanced economies largely led by the U.S. should increase marginally to an average of 1.6% through the remainder of the decade as some of the effects of the crisis wear off, the fund said. That is up 0.3 percentage point from the six years after the crisis but well below the 2.2% recorded before the financial meltdown. The IMF calculates the growth capacity of major emergingmarket economies will shrink by nearly two percentage points from precrisis levels to an average of 5.2% through 2020, with a hefty portion of that write-down coming from China. Shrinking labor pools are a major culprit, the fund said. In Germany and Japan, for example, the working-age population is expected to shrivel by around 0.2% a year over the next five years. That problem is compounded by a labor pool that is aging faster than the number of youth entering the workforce. It is a similar problem in the world’s largest emerging-market economies. Over the past 25 years, Brazil’s fertility rate has fallen from an average of nearly three children per woman to fewer than two. China’s government has long enforced a one-child policy for much of the population. In Russia, the working-age population is contracting. Copyright © Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. www.dowjones.com page 5
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