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2015 CONTAINER SHIPPING
OUTLOOK
By Mario O. Moreno
Economist, JOC, IHS
Weak 2015 Outlook for U.S. Container Trade
• 2015 imports forecast downgraded on severity of West Coast port
congestion, weak January volume
• Imports demand fundamentals, however, are sound: US economic
expansion will continue driven by consumer spending and
homebuilding
• 2015 exports forecast downgraded on lingering effects from west
coast ports congestion, strong dollar, weak demand from emerging
Asia, Japan, Europe
• Economic activity in top-market China will continue to decelerate in
2015, restrained by imbalances in credit, housing
Adverse effects from
West Coast port
congestion to restrain
imports growth in 2015
•
U.S. Imports via Ocean Container
In Millions of TEUs and Annual Growth
Imports (LHS)
19.5
U.S. imports forecast to grow
only 1.7% in 2015, downgraded
from +6.8% on adverse effects
from West Coast port
congestion
Source: JOC Container Shipping Outlook
19.0
•
•
January imports down 9.3%
YoY; February volume expected
to be dissapointing
17.5
Diverted cargo: rerouting to
Canadian, Mexican ports
16.5
Demand fundamentals are
solid: strengthening economy,
strong dollar
19.3
19.0
6.0%
17.0
7.0%
6.0%
18.5
5.0%
17.9
18.0
•
YoY Growth (RHS)
4.0%
17.4
16.9
2.7%
3.2%
3.0%
2.7%
1.7%
2.0%
16.0
1.0%
15.5
0.0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
3
2015f
The US economic expansion will continue
• Accelerations in consumer spending and homebuilding will boost
real GDP growth from 2.4% in 2014 to 3.0% in 2015.
• Consumers will step up spending in response to lower energy prices
and robust gains in employment, real income, and net worth – a
positive for imports.
• The recovery in homebuilding will gain momentum as labor markets
improve and credit standards ease.
• A strong dollar, sharp cutbacks in energy-related investments, will be
restraints on economic growth.
• Interest rates expected to move upwards over the next three years
as monetary accommodation is gradually withdrawn.
Durable goods lead growth in US consumer
spending
Real Consumer Spending
US housing starts will continue to recover in
response to growth in employment and income
Housing Starts
Despite Tentative
Labor Agreement,
Damage to 1Q Volume
is Done
•
•
•
US imports from FE Asia
forecast to grow only 1.6% in
2015, downgraded from +6.8%
China’s manufacturing
industries restructuring from
cheap and fast production to
higher value-added, more
sophisticated manufacturing
By end of 2015, China will
account for 64.7% of total
inbound trade from FEA, merely
unchanged from 2007
U.S. Imports from Far East Asia To
Decelerate the Pace in 2015
Forecast
20%
FE Asia
China
Vietnam
Source: JOC Container Shipping Outlook
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
5.7%
4%
1.6%
2%
•
Imports from Vietnam will
continue to grow at much faster
pace on lower sourcing costs
0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
U.S. Exports via Ocean Container
Second Straight Down
Year for US exports
•
•
•
U.S. exports forecast to decline
4.4% in 2015, downgraded from
-0.1% on lingering effects from
West Coast port congestion
Business lost for lack of
dependability
In Millions of TEUs and Annual Growth
Exports (LHS)
12.4
12.2
12.0
YoY Growth (RHS)
8.0%
Source: JOC Container Shipping Outlook
12.2
6.6%
11.9
6.0%
11.9
11.9
11.8
2.7%
2.0%
11.6
Dollar expected to gain 10% of
value on average this year over
2014 average
11.4
0.0%
11.4
Global economy, exc. NAFTA,
will pick up in 2015 bolstered by
lower oil prices, accommodative
monetary policies.
0.0%
-2.0%
-2.4%
11.2
•
4.0%
11.0
-4.0%
-4.4%
10.8
-6.0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
8
2015f
A gradual acceleration in the global economy
• The global economy, excluding NAFTA, is forecast to expand 2.8%
in 2015, supported by lower oil prices and accommodative monetary
policies
• The Eurozone’s modest recovery is gaining momentum, aided by
monetary stimulus, euro depreciation, and pent-up demand.
• South America’s economic growth has slowed, with Argentina and
Venezuela in recession and Brazil stagnating
• Uneven growth paths in the Asia-Pacific region
U.S. Exports to Far East Asia to
Decline for 2nd Straight Year
Soft Demand from
China, Japan to
Restrain Growth in ‘15
•
•
•
•
US exports to FE Asia forecast
to decline 4.9% in 2015
China’s growth will slow to 6.5%
in 2015, restrained by
imbalances in credit, housing,
and industrial markets
By end of 2015, China will
account for 43.6% of total
outbound trade to FEA, up
strongly by 9.0% from 2007
Exports to Japan forecast to
decline for 4th consecutive year
as its economy continues to
travel a slow growth path
Forecast
15%
FE Asia
China
Japan
Source: JOC Container Shipping Outlook
10%
5%
0%
-3.0%
-5%
-4.9%
-10%
-15%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Summary
1. Despite tentative labor agreement, damage to 1Q volume is
done.
2. U.S. imports forecast to modestly expand in 2015 on
improving economy, but restrained by adverse effects from
severe West Coast port congestion.
3. The US expansion is led by domestic demand, as consumer
spending and residential construction accelerate.
4. U.S. exports forecast to decline for second straight year in
2015 on rising dollar, lingering effects from West Coast labor
dispute, soft demand from emerging markets.
5. Uneven growth paths in the Asia-Pacific region: China’s
locomotive role in the region is diminishing.
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