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Analyzing Forest
Products Markets
and Forecasting Log
Prices in the PNW
March 25, 2015
DoubleTree Hotel • Portland, OR
Analyzing Forest Products
Markets and Forecasting
Log Prices in the PNW
March 25, 2015
DoubleTree Hotel • Portland, OR
Instructor: Dr. Brooks Mendell, Forisk, Athens, GA
Who Should Attend?
Anyone who wants a detailed process to understand, track, and
analyze the dynamics of local wood baskets and regional forest
product markets. Previous participants include forestry consultants and analysts, timberland owners and investors, wood
procurement professionals, bioenergy managers, finance and
accounting professionals and attorneys.
What is the Course About?
This course reviews a process of systematically evaluating and
tracking local wood raw material markets and regional forest
product markets for investing in and managing timberlands
and wood-using facilities. It provides a process for prioritizing questions, aggregating data, conducting analysis and
communicating results and recommendations. The process
has evolved through hundreds of Forisk engagements and
dozens of research studies focused on breaking down local
wood baskets and timber markets for a range of questions
and clients.
These skills help mitigate risk and increase the opportunities
for returns through reducing errors, prioritizing resource
allocation and highlighting unanswered questions. In addition, they lower costs through enabling firms to save time
and conduct internally the analyses required for timber and
wood-related capital allocation decisions.
Workshop Agenda
8:00
Instructor introduction and course overview
8:15
Timber Market Frameworks: What are We Trying to
Answer? What are the Tools of the Trade?
8:45
Defining “Operable” and “Analyzable” Markets: Group
exercise on drafting geographic wood and timber markets. How do we account for size, location, operations
and data collection?
9:30Break
9:45
Detailing Wood Demand and Competition: Assessing the
location, size, type, status and risk of existing woodusing facilities.
10:45
Screening Wood Bioenergy Projects: How do we screen
bioenergy projects for analysis of local wood markets?
About the Instructor
Dr. Brooks Mendell is President at Forisk, where he leads the firm’s
research program. He has over twenty years of operating, research,
and consulting experience in forest business, bioenergy and finance.
His experience includes roles in harvest operations and wood procurement with Weyerhaeuser, in management consulting with Accenture
and in academia at the University of Georgia. A Fulbright Scholar,
Dr. Mendell publishes analysis of timber markets, forest business and
operations, and wood bioenergy. His forestry-related books include
“Loving Trees is Not Enough”, “Forest Finance Simplified”, and “Wood
for Bioenergy” (co-authored with Amanda Lang). Dr. Mendell earned
BS and MS degrees at M.I.T., an MBA at the University of California at
Berkeley, and a PhD in Forest Finance at UGA.
11:30Lunch
12:15
Analyzing and Forecasting Stumpage and Delivered
Prices: Identifying, organizing and analyzing basinspecific stumpage and delivered prices. Group exercise
on estimating future prices.
2:15Break
2:30
Estimating Supply Chain Issues: Evaluating logging
capacity, transportation and rail lines, and port access.
3:30
Compiling and Communicating Final Results: Confirming final results and recommendations, producing
final deliverables and communicating technical information and results.
4:00
Session adjourns.
March 25, 2015 • DoubleTree Hotel • Portland, OR
Learn a proven process
to understand, track
and analyze the
dynamics of your
local wood baskets
and regional forest
products markets.
REGISTRATION FORM
NAME
ORGANIZATION AND AFFILIATION
ADDRESS
CITY, STATE, ZIP
PLEASE LIST ANY SPECIAL DIETARY NEEDS:
EMAIL TEL
Registration
Payment Method
AMOUNT
ON of BEFORE March 18, 2015$580
1. Please make check payable to:
WFCA • 4033 SW Canyon Rd. • Portland OR 97221
503-226-4562 • 888-722-9416 • FAX: 226-2515
AFTER March 18, 2015$680
Questions?
Call 888-722-9416 or 503-226-4562
or amanda@westernforestry.org
Western Forestry and Conservation Association
4033 SW Canyon Rd. • Portland, OR 97221
503-226-4562, 888-722-9416 FAX: 503-226-2515
Register at: www.westernforestry.org
2. Purchase order #
3. Charge to:
MC VISAAmEx
(please circle)
Account #
Expiration Date
Security Code
(on back of card)
4. Register online at www.westernforestry.org
March 25, 2015 • DoubleTree Hotel • Portland, OR
Meeting Location
Group Discount
The workshop will be held at the DoubleTree Hotel Lloyd Center at
1000 NE Multnomah St. in Portland, OR. The hotel can be reached at:
503-281-6111. The DoubleTree is at the Lloyd Center/NE 11th Avenue
stop on the Portland light rail MAX system.
Register 3 or more people from your organization and get 10% off
each person’s registration fee. To redeem the group discount, please
fill out one registration form per person and send one payment per
group. Please send all registration forms and payment at one time.
Lodging
Cancellations
No block of rooms has been set aside for the meeting. Adjacent hotels
to the DoubleTree include: Quality Inn Downtown Convention Center,
(503) 233-7933 and Residence Inn Portland Lloyd Center, 503-2881400.
Registration
The registration fee is $580 if received by March 18 or $680 after
March 18. The registration fee includes a book of the speaker’s
PowerPoint slides, lunch and the Forest Finance Simplified textbook.
Checks should be made payable to Western Forestry and Conservation Association. Purchase orders, VISA/MasterCard, and American
Express are accepted. Tax id # 930-331-712.
Cancellations received by March 18, 2015 are subject to a 15% service
charge. Cancellations received after that time will be charged the
entire registration fee, but substitutions are always welcome.
Continuing Education Credits
Workshop attendees are eligible for 6.5 Cat 1 CFE credits through the
Society of American Foresters.
Registration questions?
Call Amanda at (888) 722-9416 or (503) 226-4562
or amanda@westernforestry.org
Western Forestry and Conservation Association
4033 SW Canyon Rd., Portland, OR 97221
503-226-4562 | 888-722-9416 | Fax: 503-226-2515
Analyzing
Forest Products
Markets and
Forecasting
Log Prices in
the PNW
March 25, 2015
DoubleTree Hotel
Portland, OR
R eg i ster o nl i ne at w ww.we s t e r n f o r e s t r y.o r g