South.East.Australian.Program Preparing.fisheries.for.climate.change SNAPPER fact sheet Temperatures.recorded.off.the.east.coast.of.Tasmania.over.the.last. 7j.years.have.shown.that.this.region.is.warming.at.2V8.times.the. global.averageV. Over.the.next.centuryQ.the.marine.systems.of.southWeast.Australia.are. expected.to.continue.exhibiting.some.of.the.largest.climateWdriven. changes.in.the.Southern.HemisphereQ.with.substantial.changes.to. ecosystemsV.The.subsequent.flowWon.effects.to.communities.and. businesses.will.dependQ.in.partQ.on.how.well.fishing.industries.and. resource.managers.can.adapt.to.these.challengesV. Snapper.was.one.of.four.case.study.fisheries.selected.to.identify.the.likely.effects.of.climate.change.on. fisheries.in.southWeast.AustraliaQ.and.to.evaluate.how.well.fishery.assessment.and.management. frameworks.may.perform.given.expected.future.environmental.changeV . The fishery ....Snapper.qChrysophrys auratusk.is.a. largeQ.longWlivedQ.demersal.finfish. species.that.is.distributed.throughout. coastal.waters.around.the.southern.two. thirds.of.the.Australian.mainlandV.The. species.supports.significant.commercial. and.recreational.fisheries.in.each.of.the. mainland.states.of.QldQ.NSWQ.VicQ.SA. and.WAV. . In.the.different.commercial.fisheries.and. jurisdictionsQ.snapper.are.targeted.with. a.number.of.different.gear.types.that. include.handlinesQ.longlinesQ.haul.seinesQ. fish.traps.and.demersal.trawlsV..In. recent.yearsQ.the.national.annual. commercial.catch.has.varied.from.1Q6jj. to.6Qjjj.tV..The.commercial.sector. dominates.catches.in.SA.and.NSWQ.and the.recreational.sector.dominates. catches.in.Queensland.and.VictoriaV... The.various.StateWbased.fisheries.are. managed.independently.of.each.other. through.different.regulationsV About the case study ....Snapper.was.selected.as.a.case. study.species.to.examine.the.likely. effects.of.climate.change.because.of.its. high.commercial.value.and.recreational. significanceQ.and.because.it.is. distributed.over.a.broad.latitudinal. rangeV..FurthermoreQ.it.was.considered. that.this.case.study.would.provide. useful.insight.into.how.fisheries.can. adapt.to.change.when.there.are. changes.in.the.distribution.of.speciesV Two.significant.vulnerabilities.of. snapper.to.climate.change.were. identifiedV..FirstQ.the.number.of.new. individuals.surviving.and.entering.the. fishery.each.year.qnew.recruitsk.in.SA. and.Vic.is.highly.variable.and. ultimately.drives.population.biomass. and.fishery.productivityV..ConsequentlyQ. for.this.project.we.considered. environmental.variables.that.are.likely. to.be.influenced.by.climate.change.and. that.might.impact.recruitment.dynamicsV.. The.second.potential.vulnerability.to. climate.change.relates.to.the. considerable.latitudinal.variation.in.the. timing.of.the.reproductive.season.of. snapper.for.which.the.environmental. cues.remain.poorly.understoodV.. Key effects of climate change qqqqRecruitmentqvariabilityqofqsnapperqisqnowqthoughtqtoqbeqdrivenqbyq variableqsurvivorshipqofqtheqearlyqstageqlarvaeNqqInterQannualq variabilityqofqsuchqsurvivorshipqisqhoweverqnotqaqsimpleqrelationshipq withqphysicalqfactorsNqqVariousqenvironmentalqfactorsqincludingqwaterq temperature0qriverqflow0qassociatedqnutrientqinputqregimesqandq planktonqfoodqchainqdynamicsqinteractqtoqdetermineqtheqoptimalqtimeq periodsqforqlarvalqsurvivalqandqsurvivalqratesNqTheqcomplexityqofqthisq systemqcomplicatesqtheqpossibilityqofqdevelopingqsufficientq understandingqtoqpredictqtheqconsequencesqofqclimateqchangeqonq recruitmentqdynamicsN q Ourqreviewqofqsnapperqspawningqbehaviourqinqrelationqtoqseaqsurfaceq temperatureq°SSTCqshowedqthatqsnapperqgenerallyqspawnqwhenqSSTqisq betweenqF8qtoqPP°CNqqThisqtemperatureqrangeqlargelyqcorrespondsqtoq theqexperimentallyqdeterminedqrangeqofqphysiologicalqtolerancesqforq survivalqofqsnapperqeggsqandqlarvaeNq Wequsedqforecastqmodelingqtoqassessqhowqtheqtemporalqwindowqforq thisqoptimalqspawningqtemperatureqregimeqmayqchangeqatqdifferentq placesqoverqtheqnextq5HqyearsNqqTheqresultsqindicatedqthatqinqtheqfutureq forqregionsqsuchqasqQld0qnorthernqNSW0qandqtheqnorthernqgulfsqofqSA0q thereqmayqbeqnoqperiodqduringqtheqyearqwhenqtheqSSTqfallsqwithinqtheq toleratedqtemperatureqrangeNqqThisqmayqmeanqthatqsnapperqcannotq maintainqviable0qselfQrecruitingqpopulationsqinqtheseqregionsNq q Inqcontrast0qSSTqregimesqinqnorthernqandqeasternqTasmaniaqareq predictedqtoqbecomeqmoreqsuitableqforqsnapperqspawningqasqtheseq regionsqcontinueqtoqwarmNqqConsequently0qinqtheqfutureqtheqbroadQ scaleqpatternsqofqdistributionqandqabundanceqofqsnapperqdownqtheq eastqcoastqofqAustraliaqmayqwellqchangeqdueqtoqtheqchangesqinqSSTq regimes0qasqaqdirectqconsequenceqofqtheqphysiologicalqtoleranceq rangesqofqtheqeggsqandqlarvaeNqq Key unknowns in regard to climate change qqqqCommercialqfisheryqmonitoringqprogramsqareqestablishedqinqeachq ofqtheqmainlandqstates0qcollectingqcommercialqcatchqandqeffortqdataNqq Ifqmaintained0qtheseqshouldqbeqsufficientqtoqdetectqsignificantqchangesq inqtheqdistributionqandqabundanceqofqsnapperqthatqmayqresultqfromq temporalqorqspatialqchangesqinqspawningqsuccessN qq However0qmonitoringqwouldqneedqtoqbeqintroducedqtoqdetectq predictedqincreasesqinqabundanceqinqTasmanianqwatersNqFurthermore0q thereqisqlimitedqdataqonqreproductionqofqsnapperqalongqtheqcentralq andqsouthernqNSWqcoast0qanqareaqwhereqsnapperqreproduction0q biomassqandqfishingqopportunitiesqcouldqpotentiallyqincreaseqinqtheq futureqdueqtoqchangesqinqSSTqregimesN Inqtheqbayqandqgulfqspawningqstocksq°iNeNqSAqandqwesternqVictoriaQ PortqPhillipCqenhancedqcollectionqofqdataqrelatingqtoqtheqdynamicsqinq nutrientqsupply0qplanktonqassemblagesqandqsnapperqrecruitmentqareq necessaryqforqtheqmonitoringqofqeffectsqofqclimateqchangeqonq recruitmentqvariabilityqandqultimatelyqstockqproductivityNqItqisqlikelyqqq thatjmorejadvancedjapproachesj includingjecosystemjorjbiophysicalj modelsjwilljbejrequiredjtojmakej predictionsjonjclimatejeffectsjonj snapperjrecruitmentjregimesjinj thesejshelteredjwaterjspawningj andjnurseryjareas.j Responding to change Existingjcapacityjforjthejfisheryj tojadapt jjjjjThejmostjlikelyjeffectsjofjclimatej changejarejchangesjinjdistributionjandj abundancejofjadultjsnapperjthatjwillj affectjfisheryjproductivityjatjjlocaljasj welljasjlargerjspatialjscales.jjThej tractablejadaptationsjtojsuchjchangesj arejlimitedjbutjinclude:jshiftingjfishingj operationsjtojnewjtimesjorjplaces;j increasejorjdecreasejtargetjeffortj appropriately;jorjifjoperatingjinjaj multi-speciesjfishery,jshiftjeffortjontoj otherjspecies.jAjbarrierjtojadaptionj mayjincludejmulti-jurisdictionalj management,jforjexamplejifjfishersj cannotjfollowjshiftsjinjsnapperj distributionjacrossjStatejborders.jjj Optionsjforjimprovingjfisheryj assessmentjframeworks Therejarejajnumberjofjoptionsjforj improvingjassessmentjframeworksjforj snapper.jjThesejinclude: establishingjajmeansjbyjwhichj monitoring,jassessmentjandj managementjofjcrossjurisdictionaljsnapperjstocksjcanj bejachieved establishingjfisheryjindependentj measuresjofjfishablejbiomass,j andjthereforejmovingjawayjfromj indicatorsjthatjarejsubjectjtojthej influencejofjfisherjbehavior,jandj changesjinjfishjbehaviorjandj distribution betterjmonitoringjofjthejcatchjandj effortjbyjthejrecreationaljsector j developingjharvestjstrategiesjthatj involvejbothjthejrecreationaljandj commercialjsectorsjandjtakejintoj accountjsocio-economicjobjectivesj asjwelljasjbiologicaljsustainabilityj andjenvironmentaljeffectsjonj productivity. Possiblejplannedjadaptationsj tojconsiderjinjthejfuture Tojbetterjpreparejforjfuturej changes,jitjmayjbejbeneficialjto: implementjsingle-stock,jcrossjurisdictionaljassessmentsjforj thejappropriatejstocks increasejmonitoringjtojallowj detectionjofjchangesjinjpatternsj ofjdistributionjandjabundance,j suchjasjinjTasmanianjwatersjandj tojmanagejsuchjstocksj appropriatelyjtojallowj establishmentjofjbreedingj populations.jMonitoringjofjthej broaderjecosystemjshouldjalsoj bejconsideredjtojallowj understandingjofjhowjsnapperj arejfittingjintojthejexistingj ecosystem. undertakejre-stockingjofjareasj thatjhavejbeenjnegativelyj impactedj)i.e.jprolongedjperiodsj ofjrecruitmentjfailure) implementjmeasuresjtojprotectjorj enhancejparticularlyjsignificantj areasjofjhabitatjorjenhancej habitatsjwithjartificialjreefsjinj otherjareasjwherejappropriate. qqqqq Barriers to change qqqqEstablishingqcross-jurisdictionalqregulationsqwillqbeqdifficult,qstockingqorqrestockingqisqexpensiveqandqmayqalsoqcreateqissuesqwithqgeneticsqandqpossibleq disease.qqAdditionalqmonitoringqorqintroducingqfisheryqindependentqmonitoringqisq alsoqexpensiveqandqsoqanyqplannedqchangesqtoqassessmentqorqmonitoringq frameworksqwillqneedqtoqbeqcarefullyqconsideredqbyqallqstakeholdersqinvolved.qqq Knowledge/data requirements into the future qqqqFurtherqinvestigationsqofqrecruitmentqvariabilityqareqrequiredqtoqenhanceqourq understandingqofqtheqcomplexqinteractionsqbetweenqbiologicalqprocessesqandqtheq biologicalqandqphysicalqenvironment.qqThen,qinqorderqtoqbetterqunderstandqtheq effectsqofqclimateqchange,qweqwillqneedqbetterqpredictionsqofqrainfall,qandqriverq flowqregimesqforqplacesqlikeqPortqPhillipqBay.qSuchqpredictionsqwouldqthenqbequsedq asqinputqtoqbiophysicalqmodelsqthatqareqcurrentlyqunderqdevelopmentqtoqprovideq betterqquantitativeqmeasuresqofqtheqeffectsqofqvariableqclimateqonqrecruitmentqandq fisheryqproductivity.qForqtheqeastqcoastqstockq(withqoceanicqspawning),qimprovedq oceanographicqforecastqmodellingqisqimportantqforqunderstandingqtheqimplicationsq ofqchangesqinqtheqEastqAustralianqCurrentqtoqlarvalqdispersal,qsurvivalqandqregionalq recruitmentqpatterns.qq http:44frdc7com7au4environment4climate_change4I Ensuring that the fisheries of south-east Australia adapt effectively to climate change will require robust scientific understanding and the development of management systems that will allow negative impacts to be mitigated and opportunities that arise to be seized. PaulIHamer8IDEPI Paul7Hamer@depi7vic7gov7au 26fIMI5_58I/_88 http:44www7redmap7org7au4 AnthonyIFowler8IPIRSA0SARDI Anthony7Fowler@sa7gov7au 26fI8I8_/7I54M_ GrettaIPecl8IIMAS Gretta7Pecl@utas7edu7au 26fIMI6__7I7_77 PhotoIcredits:I AnthonyIFowler8I ElsaIGärtner8II PaulIHamer8I AndrewIPender8I RickIStuart0 SmithIandI SARDI