Challenges of URBANIZATION in Sub‐Saharan Africa and the role of universities Dr. Joan Clos United Nations Under‐Secretary‐General and UN‐HABITAT Executive Director www.unhabitat.org 2 The XXI century: an unprecedented process of URBANIZATION World Population Growth (in billions) Number of years to add each billion (year) First Billion Unknown (1800) Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Source: UN 130 (1930) 30 (1960) 15 (1975) 12 (1987) 12 (1999) 14 (2013) 14 (2027) 21 (2048) Urban challenges are larger in LDCs Billions 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Developing Regions 3 2 1 Developed Regions 0 1950 Source: UN 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Developing world is urbanizing more rapidly Over 50 % Reaching 50% Least Urbanized 6 Urbanization has regional character 85 Urban Population 82 76 Percent 74 61 55 54 53 47 42 37 37 29 17 15 World Africa Asia 1950 Source: UN 2000 Latin America and the Caribbean 2030 More Developed Regions East Africa major cities Cities income per capita (USD) Urban challenges to face: north/south/west/east developing/developed Concurrent trends & urban impacts There are 4 issues with long‐term and deep impact on urbanization in the developed and developing worlds: •Differential impacts of climate change •Differential urban growth •Differential urban demographics •Not so different urban social impact • Developed World Developing World (more than 30,000 USD per capita) (less than 1,000 USD per capita) Climate change: • Cities are sources of high level emissions of CO2 • Urban growth: Low urban growth Urban population diminishing in big cities 13 Climate change: Highest impact due to climate change in vulnerable and poor cities (floods, droughts, famines…) • Urban growth: Urban population increasing at unprecedented rate Developing World Developed World (less than 1,000 USD per capita) (more than 30,000 USD per capita) • Demographic Shift: • A growing youth population, potential economic asset. High rates of urbanization with low levels of industrialization Aging population Growing cost of old age services • Social impact: Growing inequalities Youth unemployment High political impact of immigration coming from developing countries Financial crisis of the welfare services Low economic growth 14 Demographic shift: • Social impact: Growing inequalities Youth unemployment High social impact of emigration to develop countries (brain drain) Endemic urban poverty, manifested as slum formation and resort to informal low value economy Fast economic growth The urban failure: the lost of generations The challenge of slums 1 billion people living in slums •Sub‐Saharan Africa: 62% of the total •South Asia: 43% •East Asia: 37% •Latin America and the Caribbean: 27% The way forward: New world, new conditions, new urban paradigm The XIX century model • The XIX century model of urbanization was driven by the hygienist movement (Paris, Amsterdam, Vienna, Barcelona, NY, Chicago, San Francisco, Delhi, Shanghai, …) • Attention given to water and sanitation, drainage and better smell and air quality as improvement of the first Dickensian industrial city. The improvement of the poor conditions of labour population • Promoted by progressive political movements. The socialists, labour parties, Fabians and liberals. The XX century model • The modern city movement (congress CIAM 1933 and the functional city – Le Corbussier): • • • • • • Separation of car from people… The superblock (village like, self‐contained, romantic view…) Zoning… Specialized uses… Suburbia model Very high demand of mobility • Initially supported by socialists and communists The XX century model The XX century model The post World War II model • The “mutation” of the modern city ideal. The success of the modern city after WWII. The car based economy: the CAR BASED CITY. • Commercially very successful, industrialized production of the city, real estate friendly. Suburbia, specialization zoning and very low density. • High use of green as a “decorative” and “softening” of the model. • Loss of the grammar of urban planning. Loss of cultural identity and values. Unhappiness about the city. Homogeneity of the model (similarities of forms everywhere) • Universally supported by all political parties. Overall and general consensus. The post World War II model Recreational Residential Business district Industrial TechnologicalP ark Commercial The post World War II model The post World War II model A new Urban Paradigm XXI century: need of a new urban paradigm Paradigm change Sustainable Urban Planning & Design • Better Planning & Design with optimal density and diversity • Plan in advance and to the scale of expected growth • Planning starts with the street & public space, water & sanitation , energy supply, urban mobility and other basic services • Avoid urban development on steep slopes, water beds, quake prone zones and other risky areas • Avoid zoning as much as possible • Preservation of the land mosaics The urban economy Promote Urban Economy • Economies of Urbanization: Economic value generated by location near urban services and common goods. • Economies of Agglomeration: Economic value generated by the proximity and diversity of factors of production, diminishing transactions costs, favouring specialization. Massive increase of productivity. The new urban model Why the change of urban paradigm is so difficult? Land markets (successful commercially) Low level of regulation High architectural creativity (singular buildings, icons…) Apparently “green” city, but not an ecological model at all (high emission of green gas houses) The problems: Based on a very cheap energy price which allows for a lot of mobility, the model is UNSUSTAINABLE. This is not a question of opinion, but a question of energy prices. The new urban model THE NEED OF CITY ENLARGEMENTS Good words… if it is well planned DENSITY DIVERSITY MOBILITY PRACTICAL LEGAL INSTRUMENTS EQUITY EFFICIENCY Universities as the best place to elaborate the new paradigm. The hope is in the universities of the developing countries. New generations… your turn! www.unhabitat.org 40