18/05/2015 The Evolving Employment Structure: Some Observations Labour Market Policy Symposium Royal Irish Academy, 19th May 2015 Dr Micheál Collins NERI (Nevin Economic Research Institute) Dublin mcollins@NERInstitute.net @ MLGCollins www.NERInstitute.net Outline 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Employment Trends Employment: recovery & decline Long-Term Unemployment Low Pay Precarious Work Employment, Activation & Public Services 1 18/05/2015 1. Employment Trends 2 18/05/2015 Number of People not in the Labour Force Year (Q4) No. 2007Q4 1,283,100 2008Q4 1,331,800 2009Q4 1,400,700 2010Q4 1,430,800 2011Q4 1,433,200 2012Q4 1,453,000 2013Q4 1,434,300 2014Q4 1,449,300 2. Employment & Recovery 3 18/05/2015 3. Long‐Term Unemployment • The defining public policy issue of the next decade • not yet…. • Implications: o retraining o getting construction/Investment going o CE schemes • distant unemployed role • role in broader societal sense 4 18/05/2015 4. Low Pay • Recent NERI QEO and forthcoming paper o first detailed examination of hourly earnings in Ireland since 1990s o 2013 data o Representing 1,345,000 employees 5 18/05/2015 Approximately: • 345,000 employees below €11.45 per hour • 400,000 employees below €12.20 per hour Who are the low paid? o Of all those who are low paid: • 60% women • 34% aged 18-29; 28% 30-39yrs; 20% 40-49yrs… • 25% in wholesale and retail sector • 17% in accommodation and food sector • 44% work 35hrs+ ; 25% work less than 20hrs • 84% permanent workers 6 18/05/2015 5. Precarious Work • A growing trend o across the labour force o previously low skilled / low paid o but, spreading upwards… • Data deficits • Small insights: o QNHS Q4 2014: 446,500 part-time workers of whom 115,500 were underemployed o Live Register March 2014: 71,404 casual and part-time workers on the register (2.5% of total LF) o FIS data Approx.: • 5% of all households with employee income • 10% of all children 7 18/05/2015 6. Emp., Activation & Pub. Services • Joining up the dots… • Living Wage Technical Group experience… • Judging earnings from the perspective of adequacy throws up a no. of issues for low earning groups: o mainly linked to public service provision o Childcare & Housing… o not appropriate for employers to carry the cost for these broader societal deficits/decisions… o impede participation (single parents, low income families, women…) o necessitates ongoing state subsidisation of employment The Evolving Employment Structure: Some Observations Labour Market Policy Symposium Royal Irish Academy, 19th May 2015 Dr Micheál Collins NERI (Nevin Economic Research Institute) Dublin mcollins@NERInstitute.net @ MLGCollins www.NERInstitute.net 8