1. finance
2. bank

Strategy, 2 April 2015
2Q15 Thailand Strategy
Selective Buys
Public Investment Is Key As Volatility Continues
Macro
Risks
Growth
Value
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1
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1
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1
1
GDP (Yearly)
Source: NESDB, RHB Estimates
GDP (Quarterly)
GDP
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15F
2Q15F
3Q15F
4Q15F
y-o-y
-0.5
0.4
0.6
2.3
2.2
3.3
3.9
4.3
q-o-q
-1.4
-3.7
-0.3
7.9
-1.5
-2.6
0.4
8.3
Source: NESDB, RHB Estimates
Top picks
% upside
26/03/15
TP (THB)
AP
18.44
7.05
8.35
CENTEL
32.28
31.75
42.00
MINT
16.79
34.25
40.00
STEC
53.66
20.50
31.50
Source: RHB
Unless otherwise mentioned, all share price data as at close on
26 March 2015
Veena Naidu License No. 24418, 66 2862 9752
veena.na@rhbgroup.com
See important disclosures at the end of this report
The Thai market gave back all its gains YTD. It started the year at 1,496
and peaked at 1,619, a +8.2% growth by mid-February. During March,
after the weak economic numbers and negative export growth, the SET
Index began its decline and is currently trading back at around 1,500
where it started. Near term the Index level will be determined by the
1Q15 earnings results and we expect the SET Index to be range bound
between 1,450-1,480pts to 1,550-1,580pts.
 The execution of public investment is key in 2Q15.Our economic
team currently estimates the 2015 GDP growth at 3.4% and forecasts
the 1H15 economic growth will continue to be weak with negative QoQ
growth. The pickup is expected to happen in 2H15. A break above
1,660pts for the SET would depend on a strong economic turnaround in
2H15 (an over 4% annual GDP growth), fast-tracking of infrastructure
projects and stabilizing agricultural prices. However, conditions that may
lead the index to go below 1,400pts would be lower-than-expected GDP
growth (below 3%), a continued slide in agricultural prices which in turn
would hurt rural consumption and further delays in the execution of
infrastructure jobs, exacerbated by political problems.
 Fiscal disbursement has speeded up but it is still below the
government‟s forecast. Investment budget during the 4 months of fiscal
year 2015 (Oct 2014 to Jan 2015) has reached 25% vs 30% target.
However, on the infrastructure projects not much has happened.
 Hopes are on the approval of infrastructure projects. We expect
BangpaIn-Nakornrachsrima motorway and three double-track projects
(Jira junction-Khonkaen, Prachuapkirikhan-Chumpon, Cha Choeng Sao
- Kang Koi) totaling c.THB115.7bn to be up for bids in 1H15. These
projects acquired the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) approval
and are ready for the bidding and auction process. Additionally, we
expect the bidding of MRT Orange Lines and the first stage of the
Phase 2 expansion of Suvarnabhumi Airport to begin in late 2H15 as
the route of MRT Orange Line has been changed and it currently needs
to reacquire EIA approval. We expect the bidding of Suvarnabhumi
Airport Phase II project to begin in Aug 2015 at the earliest as it is still
being reviewed by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO). If
the government can push through the bidding of the above projects, it
may give the investment community more confidence.
 The completion of the new constitution will reduce the political
heat. The final draft of the constitution is anticipated to be completed by
the end of April with the approval from the cabinet around August. We
expect this process to continue to be an overhang on the market during
April. However, the focus will shift to election on approval of the
constitution, reducing political concerns.
 Ex-energy-petrochemical and aviation consensus earnings
forecast of 15% in 2015F are at risk as the economy weakens further.
The results for 1Q15 earnings of the listed companies will determine the
SET Index level near term. Banking and consumer sectors earnings will
determine the health of the underlying economy.
 For 2Q15, we prefer 3 sectors: contractor, hospitality and selective
property. Top Pick in the contractor sector is Sino-Thai‟s (STEC TB,
BUY, TP: THB31.50). In the hospitality sector we like Central Plaza
Hotel (CENTEL TB, BUY, TP: THB42.00) and Minor International (MINT
TB, BUY, TP: THB40.00) due to the recovery in tourists arrival +19%
YoY. In the property sector, we prefer AP Thailand (AP TB, BUY, TP:
THB8.35) due to its exposure to the mid to high end properties with
improving margins.
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1
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
We Forecast a 2015 GDP Growth Of 3.4%
Public investment is key to 2015 growth
Following the weak January performance, our economic team has revised Thailand‟s
2015 GDP growth number down from 4.0% to 3.4%. RHB forecasts that 1H15
economic growth will continue to be weak with negative QoQ growth. The pickup is
expected to happen in 2H15. The recent collapse in exports growth -4.8% during the
first two months of 2015 have led to consensus downgrading Thailand‟s 2015 GDP
growth forecast from 4% to around 3%. The domestic consumption which accounts
for about 50-51% of GDP remains weak due to depressed farm prices and high
household debt. Private investment has also been muted YTD as capacity utilization
is low at 60%. Thus, the key to growth remains public investments. The two areas on
public investments are the disbursement of the fiscal budget and the execution of the
infrastructure projects.
Fiscal disbursement has speeded up but it is still below the government‟s forecast.
Investment budget during the 4 months of fiscal year 2015 (Oct 2014 to Jan 2015)
has reached 25% vs 30% target. However, on the infrastructure projects not much
has happened.
Hopes are on the approval of infrastructure projects. We expect BangpaInNakornrachsrima motorway and three double-track projects (Jira junction-Khonkaen,
Prachuapkirikhan-Chumpon, Cha Choeng Sao- Kang Koi) totaling c.THB115.7bn to
be up for bids in 1H15. These projects acquired the Environmental Impact
Assessment (EIA) approval and are ready for the bidding and auction process.
Additionally, we expect the bidding of MRT Orange Lines and the first stage of the
Phase 2 expansion of Suvarnabhumi Airport to begin in late 2H15 as the route of
MRT Orange Line has been changed and it currently needs to reacquire EIA
approval. We expect the bidding of Suvarnabhumi Airport Phase II project to begin in
Aug 2015 at the earliest as it is still being reviewed by the National Council for Peace
and Order (NCPO). If the government can push through the bidding of the above
projects, it may give the investment community more confidence.
Figure 1 : GDP by demand aggregate (1988=100)
----------------2013---------------1Q
2Q
3Q
---------------2014---------------
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
2013
2014
2015F
4Q
% growth in real terms
GDP
Consumption
5.4
2.9
2.7
0.6
-0.5
0.4
0.6
2.3
2.9
0.7
3.4
Public
Private
Fixed Capital
2.9
4.4
5.8
18.8
2.9
7.6
2.5
4.7
15.4
2.0
7.3
-1.2
-6.3
-16.2
-3.1
0.8
-4.1
-11.4
-4.7
-13.2
4.2
-3.0
-9.3
-16.6
-7.4
2.1
0.2
-6.9
-6.7
-7.0
0.4
2.2
2.9
-0.8
3.9
5.5
1.9
3.2
-0.3
4.1
4.9
0.3
-2.0
1.3
-2.8
2.8
0.3
-2.8
-6.1
-1.9
4.0
3.0
5.1
5.2
5.0
8.3
8.1
2.9
4.5
3.8
0.8
2.0
-3.5
-0.5
-8.6
-0.6
-9.0
-3.8
-1.1
4.9
-0.3
4.2
2.3
0.0
-4.8
3.2
5.2
5.0
3.8
0.1
-3.2
-6.3
-5.5
3.0
-1.6
1.4
-2.6
3.9
2013
2014
2015F
Public
Private
Goods & Services
Exports
Imports
Agg. Domestic
Source: National Economic & Social Development Board
F = RHBRI’s Forecasts
Figure 2: GDP by industrial origin (1988=100)
----------------2013---------------1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
---------------2014--------------1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
% growth in real terms
GDP
5.4
2.9
2.7
0.6
-0.5
0.4
0.6
2.3
2.9
0.7
3.4
Agriculture , forestry & fishing
0.8
2.5
-0.3
2.1
1.4
4.2
1.6
-1.6
1.4
1.1
2.1
Manufacturing
4.9
-1.1
-0.5
-2.8
-2.7
-1.6
-0.7
0.7
0.1
-1.1
4.4
Mining & quarrying
10.4
4.4
-2.4
-2.5
-1.5
-0.6
-0.8
0.8
2.2
-0.5
2.4
Construction
10.5
5.0
-2.2
-8.5
-11.9
-3.2
-2.7
3.7
1.0
-3.8
3.6
Services
6.4
6.5
6.6
4.2
1.8
1.5
1.4
4.1
5.9
2.2
3.1
Source: National Economic & Social Development Board
See important disclosures at the end of this report
F = RHBRI’s Forecasts
2
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
2015 earnings forecast of 15% are at risk
2015 earnings are expected to show a strong recovery of 35% YoY growth due to the
rebound in earnings of refineries and petrochemical. However, ex-energypetrochemical and aviation consensus earnings forecast growth of 15% is at risk as
the economy may weaken further. The previews of 1Q15 earnings of the listed
companies will determine the evolution of the SET Index near term. Banking and
consumer sectors earnings will determine the health of the underlying economy.
Figure 3: 2015 Earnings to rebound strongly from low base
Earnings
2013
2014
2015F
Agro&Food
5,607.4
21,177.0
24,025.6
28,453.4
-49.76%
-53.05%
277.66%
13.45%
18.43%
Auto
2,573.1
2,137.8
1,829.7
2,130.5
18.00%
68.12%
-16.92%
-14.41%
16.44%
Bank
185,589.0
189,796.0
210,199.0
238,781.0
20.77%
28.08%
2.27%
10.75%
13.60%
ConMat
2016F 2012 Growth 2013 Growth 2014 Growth 2015F Growth 2016F Growth
1,752.6
1,648.5
1,616.0
1,776.0
5.86%
-2.79%
-5.94%
-1.97%
9.90%
Commerce
Information & Commu
Energy
Media
Healthcare
Industrial Estate
Residential Property
Construction
28,579.5
58,047.0
183,149.2
9,798.7
9,503.7
8,731.0
29,623.2
4,609.0
28,495.3
69,911.1
99,682.7
7,893.3
10,738.9
8,005.0
37,053.7
4,122.0
34,649.1
84,261.0
179,322.6
8,448.7
12,513.8
7,319.0
39,636.0
4,656.0
42,060.7
92,308.0
192,721.9
9,434.3
14,755.5
8,285.3
41,186.0
5,572.0
31.59%
5.91%
3.23%
30.74%
70.65%
130.12%
22.53%
-16.78%
6.32%
2.78%
-11.38%
16.69%
-17.60%
64.89%
21.88%
80.89%
-0.29%
20.44%
-45.57%
-19.45%
13.00%
-8.32%
25.08%
-10.57%
21.60%
20.53%
79.89%
7.04%
16.53%
-8.57%
6.97%
12.95%
21.39%
9.55%
7.47%
11.67%
17.91%
13.20%
3.91%
19.67%
Petrochem
Transportation
Tourism
Market total
Total
34,466.0
19,497.0
10,927.0 - 6,440.0
12,653.0
12,650.0
585,609.4 506,368.4
585,609.4 506,368.4
37,540.0
21,065.0
15,658.8
682,740.3
682,740.3
41,374.0
27,740.0
18,131.0
764,709.6
764,709.6
-19.43%
N.A.
82.73%
11.02%
11.02%
-6.19%
-12.42%
14.13%
4.09%
4.09%
-43.43%
N.A.
-0.02%
-13.53%
-13.53%
92.54%
N.A.
23.78%
34.83%
34.83%
10.21%
31.69%
15.79%
12.01%
12.01%
34.83%
20.32%
14.88%
12.01%
13.90%
7.94%
Earnings Growth
Earnings Growth (exc. Energy and Petrochem)
Earnings Growth (exc. Energy and Petrochem,Transportation)
4.09%
15.29%
11.87%
-13.53%
5.22%
6.97%
The market is trading at reasonable valuation of 12.9x 2015 and 11.5x 2016
Source: RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
3
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Figure 4: Our earnings forecasts are in line with consensus forecasts.
Source: Bloomberg
The completion of the new constitution will reduce the political heat
The final draft of the constitution is anticipated to be completed by the end of April. At
the same time, the drafters will be formulating the organic bills. The Constitution is to
be promulgated in September and the organic laws can be submitted to the National
Legislative Assembly by October or November. Royal approval for the laws is likely to
come in December, so the next election could be announced in Jan 2016.
Politicians have been vocal in their protests against the new constitution. The key
controversial areas in the constitution are:

The Prime Minister can by appointed under special circumstances;

The senate will be fully appointed; and

The new electoral system will lead to smaller parties implying that
governments will be formed through a coalition of parties.
The criticisms of the constitution will continue until the final draft is ready towards the
end of April. On completion the cabinet approval of the new constitution will not be a
problem as the upper and lower houses are all appointed by the military junta. Our
belief is that until the final draft is completed, political uncertainty will continue to be
an overhang on the market during the month of April. However, the focus will shift to
the next election on approval of the constitution reducing political concerns. Thus we
expect political concerns to ease off by the end of April.
Policy rate remains low
On 11 March, the Bank of Thailand‟s (BOT) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
reduced the key policy rate (1-Day Bilateral Repurchase Rate) by 25 basis points to
the lowest in more than four years at 1.75% (see Figure 15). The interest rate cut
was the first in a year, since slashing it by 25 basis points in March last year.
Figure 5: MPC rate
Source: Bank of Thailand
See important disclosures at the end of this report
4
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
No deflationary pressure as core inflation remains positive
On the inflationary front, the headline inflation declined and turned negative in the
January-February 2015 period (Figure 6), due to low global oil prices. Nonetheless,
the prices of most goods and services continued to rise, reflected by the positive core
inflation. Looking ahead, the central bank expects inflationary pressure to remain at a
low level, close to the committee‟s assessment at the last meeting. Overall financial
stability remains sound, but there is a need to closely monitor the potential risk buildup associated with search-for-yield behavior amid an extended period of low
domestic interest rate environment.
Thailand‟s headline consumer prices fell for the second consecutive month in
February by 0.5% y-o-y, after dropping by 0.4% in January and compared with +0.6%
in December, as lower energy prices in recent months translated to lower prices of
food & beverages. This was made worse by soft domestic demand. The core inflation
rate, which excludes 138 items from the raw food and energy segments, moderated
to 1.4% y-o-y in February, from +1.6% in January and compared to +1.7% in
December.
Going forward, inflation is expected to remain on a downward trend in 1H 2015, on
account of falling global oil prices in late 2014 that led to lower gasoline prices in
recent months. Given the sharp fall in oil prices in recent months, we lower our
inflation rate forecast to 1.0% for 2015, compared to our previous estimate of +1.3%
and moderating from +1.9% in 2014.
Figure 6: CPI monthly
Figure 7: CPI yearly
Source: Bank of Thailand, Bloomberg
Source: Bank of Thailand, Bloomberg
Thai currency has been resilient
The THB closed last year at USD/THB 32.87. YTD, the currency has appreciated
approximately 1.41% vs the USD. Thailand‟s current account position for 2015 is
expected to be in a surplus of 2.8% of GDP, thus supporting the currency.
Figure 8: Exchange rate evolution
Source: Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report
5
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Tourism has rebounded strongly
Figure 9: Number of tourists yearly
Source: Tourism Authority of Thailand
Excess liquidity in the domestic market limits downside risk
Liquidity in the Thai market is high as can be seen in Figure 12 and money supply
(M2) growth continues to be strong. Total asset size of Thailand‟s mutual funds – as
at Dec 2014 – stood at THB3.8trn, up 24.7% YoY (Figure 10). By comparison, total
deposits at Thai banks increased 6.6% YoY in 2014 to THB11.7trn. Government
pension and social security funds‟ assets, as at Dec 2014, stood at THB492bn and
THB1.16trn respectively (Figure 11).
Figure 10: Thailand’s total deposits and mutual fund
assets as at Dec 2014
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 12: Money Supply (M2), M-o-M
Source: Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Figure 11: Government pension and social security funds’ assets
as at Dec 2014
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 13: Annual Current A/C Balance
Source: Bloomberg
6
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Foreign investors remain net sellers in the Thai market
Foreign investors‟ holdings in Thai shares (with NVDRs) have declined to 27.5% in
2013 and 23% YTD. The current holding position of foreign investors is one of the
lowest since 2006, thus limiting downside outflow of funds from the market.
Figure 14: Investors Types (Yearly)
Source: SETSMART
Figure 15: Investor Types (Monthly)
(THBbn)
Local Institutes
ProprietaryTrading
Foreign Investors
Local Investors
Date
Value(THB bn)
Value(THB bn)
Value(THB bn)
Value(THB bn)
Net
Net
Net
Net
Jan-14
3.48
-0.52
-13.67
10.71
Feb-14
14.15
1.02
-21.38
6.21
Mar-15
-3.67
2.63
14.25
-13.22
Apr-15
3.13
-0.01
15.87
-18.99
May-15
18.01
1.64
-35.76
16.11
Jun-15
6.82
2.92
-0.36
-9.38
Jul-15
-15.16
1.46
13.77
-0.07
Aug-15
10.10
1.37
2.40
-13.86
Sep-15
-5.43
-0.51
21.12
-15.17
Oct-15
12.35
-3.89
-16.14
7.69
Nov-15
3.60
10.52
11.05
-25.17
Dec-15
24.05
-13.04
-27.74
16.72
Jan-15
9.78
8.26
-4.30
-13.75
Feb-15
-3.53
-1.63
-6.90
12.06
Mar-15
-4.88
-6.84
3.88
7.84
YTD
1.37
-0.21
-7.32
6.15
Source: SETSMART
Figure 16: % Foreign Shareholding Thailand
Source: Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report
7
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Thailand market PER trending up due to change in the composition of
the SET market cap
Due to the changes in the composition of Thailand market cap, we do not expect
Thailand market to trade at the previous average PER of 10-12x. The Energy and
Petrochemical sectors which used to account for 34.5% of Thailand market cap have
now declined to 18.7% (Figure 19). For the high PER sectors like commerce and
retailers, the market cap has doubled from 4% in 2008 to 8% current. The healthcare
sector market cap increased from 1.7% in 2008 to the current 3.7%. The transport
sector market cap has expanded from 2.4% in 2008 to the current 5.8%. Thus due to
the declining low PER commodity-related counters to bigger presentations of high
PER counters like hospitality and commerce, we believe that there is a structural
change in the composition of the market leading to higher PER of the market.
Figure 17: SET index/Forward P/E
Figure 18: SET Index/Forward P/BV
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Figure 19: Index Weight
SET Index
Weight 2008
Weight
2011
Current
Weight
vs 2008
vs 2011
Bank and Finance
14.9
17.8
17.5
2.6
-0.3
Energy and PetroChem
34.5
25.7
18.7
-15.8
-7.0
Telco
11.4
10.0
12.8
1.4
2.8
Commerce
4.1
7.0
8.0
3.9
1.0
Property
6.5
5.6
6.8
0.3
1.2
Con Mat
5.6
6.2
5.8
0.2
-0.4
Transport
2.4
2.4
5.8
3.4
3.4
Food
2.7
5.8
5.9
3.2
0.1
Healthcare
1.7
2.5
3.7
2.0
1.2
Media
2.3
1.9
1.9
-0.4
0.1
Sector
Source: RHB, Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report
8
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Residential Sector- Selective Buys
2014 Wrap-Up

Most developers missed their 2014 presales targets. Sector full-year
presales stood at around THB180bn (-16% YoY), but still 8% below their
target of THB194bn. Five of the eight major listed developers missed their
2014 guidance, mainly due to: i) soft demand during 1H14 amid the political
turmoil, and ii) delays in launches of new projects from 4Q14 to 2015.

Asian Property PCL (AP TB, BUY, TP: THB8.35), Land and House (LH
TB, NEUTRAL, TP: THB11.00) and Ananda Development (ANAN TB,
BUY, TP: THB4.80) could meet their presales target.

Tight expense control and divestment gains are keys to 2014 sector
earnings growth. Sector revenue grew only 10% YoY (landed property
12%, condo: 8%) while the gross margin improved 0.8 ppt. Bottom line rose
by 26% YoY, from: i) a tight SG&A expense-to-sales ratio, and ii) divestment
gains.

Sansiri PCL (SIRI TB, BUY, TP: THB2.60), Ananda Development and
Supalai PCL (SPALI TB, NEUTRAL, TP: THB27.00), were top three
developers with the best 2014 earnings growth of 76%, 60% and 55%,
respectively

Factors that put pressure to the sector: i) poor upcountry demand,
ii) high rejection/cancellation, iii) delay in the approval of EIA (Environmental
Impact Assessment) license

Industry trend: i) M&A and backdoor listing for mid to small developers,
ii) joint venture large-size condominium project, iii) most condominium
development now starts after receiving EIA license
Figure 20: Annual Presales trend
Figure 21: Annual Sector Earnings
(THBm)
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
200 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Company data
SPALI
SIRI
QH
PS
LPN
LH
AP
Source: Company data
Figure 22: 2014 Earnings: Actual vs Estimates
Source: Company Data, RHB Estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
9
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
2015 Residential Property Outlook

Better macro environment. GDP is set to rebound from a low base of
0.7% in 2014 to 3.4% in 2015F. Property market is around 70% correlated
to GDP.

Guidance presales growth of 25% YoY. Sansiri PCL leads the pack,
followed by Asian Property PCL and Quality House (QH TB, BUY, TP:
THB5.50). Presales ytd have grown substantially from a low base in 1Q14
amid political turmoil.

Modest core profit growth of 18% YoY based on revenue growth of 10%
and potential margins improvement from declining development cost and
tight expense control. Bottom line (excl. any extra gains) is estimated at 5%
YoY.

Residential prices on the uptrend while costs have been declining.
The rate of residential prices increase dipped to 3% in 2012 before rising
6% in 2013 and 7% in 2014. Building material price index has been stable
while interest rate is on the downtrend. Land cost seems to weaken
recently as the upcoming new tax on vacant land may result in more supply
of raw land.

The start-up of public investment

Asset monetization to continue

Risks. i) upcountry demand has yet to recover, ii) high
rejection/cancellation, iii) an oversupply of condominiums in provinces, and
iv) unclear upcoming property tax effective probably in 2017 on unused land
and property priced more than THB3m/unit.
Figure 23: New launches, New completed residential
and GDP
Source: Industry Data, RHB Estimates
Figure 24: Change in residential prices vs costs
Source: Industry Data, RHB Estimates
Figure 25: Residential prices trend
Source: Industry Data, RHB Estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
10
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Valuations and recommendation

Trailing PE is around its mean level. And every developer under our
coverage now trades at its mean level

Less upbeat on the large cap developers. From their 2015 guidance and
earning prospect, large cap developers like Land and House, Pruksa Real
Estate (PS TB, NEUTRAL, TP: THB35.50) and Supalai PCL look unexciting
with a single digit presales and profit growth. Mid to low end developers like
Pruksa Real Estate, Supalai PCL and LPN Development (LPN TB, BUY,
TP: THB22.80) have been hit by weak demand and high
rejection/cancellation rate.

Bullish on developers with rooms to improve their efficiency like Asian
Property PCL, Quality House and Sansiri PCL. Sansiri is ready for a
comeback after a successful financial engineering and business
restructuring last year. These three target at mid to high-end segment and
their guidance for presales and new launches are more aggressive than
industry‟s average.
Figure 26: Residential PE and SD
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Figure 27: Valuation Table
Source: Company Data, RHB Estimates, SETSMART
* Recurring net profit, # Pre-extra items profit
See important disclosures at the end of this report
11
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
See important disclosures at the end of this report

Ananda Development (ANAN TB, BUY, TP: THB4.2)
•
2015F profit is likely to be flat from a high base in 2014.
•
2016F profit to rebound given the completion of its first JV condo project
•
Prime beneficiary of urban lifestyle and expansion of Bangkok‟s mass transit
system.

L.P.N Development (LPN TB, BUY, TP: THB22.8)
•
Set to register the strongest 2015F EPS growth of 33%. 85% of 2015F sales
already in hand as backlog.
•
Recover from a low base of 2014.

Asian Property PCL (AP TB, BUY, TP: THB8.3)
•
Successful biz restructuring and efficiency improvement in 2014. Upbeat
2015 guidance for presales and new launches.
•
Hidden value for projects waiting for re-development such as Sk39,
Ngamwongwan and Sathorn
•
Trading at 7.8x 2015F PE, the lowest among peers.

Sansiri Public Company Limited (SIRI TB, BUY, TP: THB2.60)
•
A meaningful turnaround in 2014 after its financial engineering (net gearing
now at 1.5x) and biz restructuring.
•
Strong brandname, large backlog, rooms to improve net margin which is
below industry‟s average.
•
New partnership deal with BTS and others
•
High exposure in the weak upcountry market

Quality House (QH TB, BUY, TP: THB5.5)
•
2015 presales, revenue and earnings to grow at least 20% YoY.
•
Rooms for gross margins improvement
•
New gen management adds value and improve brand image

Pruksa Real Estate (PS TB, NEUTRAL, TP: THB35.5)
•
Market leader by presales, new launches and revenue
•
Modest 2015 guidance
•
Target at mid to low end which is being hit by high household debt and slow
economy
•
Single digit EPS growth

Land and House PCL (LH TB, NEUTRAL, TP: THB11.0)
•
Below industry average 2014-15 EPS growth given a huge dilution effect
from the conversion of 2b warrants
•
Unexciting 2015 target and earnings outlook
•
Upside from asset divestment into REIT and sale of non-core investment.

Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI TB, NEUTRAL, TP: THB27)
•
Net profit growth to normalize in 2015
•
Unexciting 2015 guidance and earnings outlook
•
Developer with the largest exposure to the upcountry market where demand
is not so strong
12
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Developers’ P/E and SD
Figure 28: AP TB : P/E and SD
Figure 29: SIRI TB: P/E and SD
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Figure 30: QH TB: P/E and SD
Figure 31: LPN TB: P/E and SD
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Figure 32: LH TB: P/E and SD
Figure 33: PS TB: P/E and SD
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Figure 34: SPALI TB: P/E and SD
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
See important disclosures at the end of this report
13
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Industrial Estate Sector- Neutral

Sluggish 2014. The sector‟s full-year results weakened YoY in terms of
revenue (-6%) and earnings (-18%). Amata Corporation (AMATA TB, BUY,
TP: THB21.00) had the best earnings growth (+47% YoY) on healthy high
margin land transfers. Rojna Industrial Park (ROJNA TB, BUY, TP:
THB10.30) came in second with earnings growth of 27% YoY, given a
turnaround in its business. Others saw more than 30% plunge in their
earnings.

Operating environment remains tough in 2015. The recovery in the
private investment index has been slow despite a surge in value of
investments applying for Board of Investment privileges to THB2.2trn (2013:
THB1.0trn).

New investments from auto and electronics & electrical are returning at a
slow pace, given that overall capacity utilisation stands at 60%. This should
result in a weak demand for industrial land. Profit on the core business
hence, is likely to be sluggish given small outstanding backlog. Poor land
sales during 2014 will lead to weak land transfer and revenue in 2015.

An expansion of retailers, modern trade and consumer products into the
upcountry region ahead of the ASEAN Economic Community remains
healthy and ought to help to fuel demand for warehouses and logistics
centres.

Figure 35: BOI application vs Land sales
Source: Board of Investment, Company data, RHB estimate
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Sales of assets and extra items will fuel 2015 growth. Despite
unexciting top-down outlook, we believe each stock has its own catalyst.
Rojna Industrial Park‟s core earnings already normalised in 2014 after it was
hit hard by floods at end-2011. WHA Corporation‟s (WHA TB, Trading Buy,
TP: THB38.00) deal to take over Hemaraj is expected to be finalised by end2Q15. Thereafter, WHA Corporation‟s will become Thailand‟s largest fully
integrated IE developers and series of asset sale are likely to be seen.
Amata Corporation sets to monetise its rental asset into THB4.5bn REIT and
list its subsidiary, Amata VN, in 2015
Figure 36: Market share of IE developers
Source: Industry Data, RHB Estimates
14
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Figure 37: Breakdown of industries applying for BOI incentives
Source: Board of Investment (BOI)
Amata Corporation and Ticon Industrial (TICON TB, NEUTRAL, TP:THB19.50)
trade below their long term mean P/BV, HEMRAJ trades above +1SD level while
ROJNA trades at its mean level

Amata Corporation (AMATA TB, BUY, TP: THB21.00). We like Amata for
its cheap valuations trading below its means P/B of 2.9x and 35% discount
to its NAV of THB25 (from 13000 rai of landbank). Asset monetisation via
REIT and the listing of Amata VN potentially boost its growth upside in 2015.

WHA Corporation‟s (WHA TB, Trading Buy, TP: THB38.00) deal to take a
majority stake in Hemraj Land and Development (HEMRAJ TB, NEUTRAL,
TP: THB4.50) at THB4.5 (on par with our NAV calculation and equivalent to
3x P/BV) is expected to be finalized by 2Q15. Thereafter, WHA could
become Thailand‟s largest fully integrated IE developer and we expect
series of asset monetization via REITs from both companies worth a
combined value of at least THB28bn between now and 2017. This will result
in huge divestment gains.
Figure 38: Industrial Estate P/B and SD
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Figure 39: Valuation Table
EFAHeading2 Lorem Ipsum Dolar Sit Amet
EFABodyText. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Proin
Source: RHB Estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
15
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Industrial Estate Developers’ P/BV And SD
Figure 40: AMATA TB: P/BV and SD
Figure 41: HEMRAJ TB : P/BV and SD
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Figure 42: WHA TB: P/BV and SD
P/B(x)
Figure 43: ROJNA TB: P/BV and SD
WHA's P/B and SD
16
14
+2SD 13.4x
12
+1SD 11.5x
+Mean 9.5x
10
-1SD 8x
8
-2SD 6x
6
4
2
0
Mar-13
Jul-13
Dec-13
May-14
Oct-14
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Mar-15
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Figure 44: TICON TB: P/BV and SD
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
See important disclosures at the end of this report
16
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Media Sector Coming From a Difficult 2014
Year 2014 was difficult; sector revenue was flat YoY while EBIT and earnings
declined 25% and 26% respectively – mainly on a 10% YoY dip in overall advertising
spending, 1H14‟s political turmoil and massive initial costs in setting up digital TV
businesses.
Figure 45: Sector revenue, net profit and net margin
Source: Company Data

Impact from a change in the TV broadcasting structure. The commercial
operations of 24 digital TV channels (analogue platform: four operators)
since mid-2014 put pressure on listed TV operators, particularly amid the
weak advertising expenditure (adex) outlook. TV operators saw a 3% dip in
revenue but a 32% plunge in earnings, mainly due to an acceleration of
costs/expenses in starting up digital channels.

Overall adex dipped 10% YoY. TV adex declined 8% YoY; mass media
adex slipped 9% YoY while below the line media adex declined 11% YoY.

Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB, BUY, TP: THB34.40) managed to grow its
2014 bottomline. While the TV operators were adversely hit, Major
Cineplex (MAJOR TB, BUY, TP: THB34.40) grew its revenue (12% YoY)
and EBIT (15% YoY) thanks to a healthy cinema revenue and a THB110m
movie rights sale to new digital TV operator Mono29. Outdoor media firm
VGI, on the other hand, saw a 5% and 13% dip in revenue and earnings
respectively.
Figure 46: TV operators: BEC, MCOT, RS and WORK
Source: Company Data
Figure 47: Other media operators: MAJOR, VGI
Source: Company Data
See important disclosures at the end of this report
17
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
2015 Outlook

Expect a turnaround from 2014’s low base for new digital TV operators
like Workpoint (WORK TB, BUY, TP: THB50.00) and RS Public Company
Limited (RS TB, BUY, TP: THB10.50) which are likely to see a meaningful
pickup in their earnings amid their improving TV ratings. Workpoint‟s ratings
put it in third while RS Public Company Limited is around fourth or fifth.

Negative on BEC World (BEC TB, SELL, TP: THB36.40). Amid tough
competition, BEC World‟s TV rating has been decelerating since the
commercial operations of the digital TV channels in mid-2014. Its 2014
earnings declined 21% YoY to THB4.4bn and we expect this trend to
continue into 2015 as its earnings may decline further by 5% YoY.

Upbeat on Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB, BUY, TP: THB34.40) given its
resilient earnings outlook for 2014-16F. A better operating environment, a
good number of potential box office hits and 80-100 new screens will be its
main growth catalysts this year. In addition, its valuations are still below the
media sector and commerce sector average.
Figure 48: Valuation Table
Company Name
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
Yield (%)
Dec-15F
Dec-15F
Dec-15F
Price
Target
Rating
BEC World
THB45.75
THB36.40
23.2
10.9
2.1
SELL
Major Cineplex Group PCL
THB30.00
THB34.40
20.5
4.0
4.1
BUY
RS PCL
THB20.20
THB10.50
33.9
10.5
2.1
BUY
VGI Global Media PCL
THB11.90
THB10.10
33.4
17.3
2.4
SELL
Workpoint Entertainment PCL
THB65.00
THB50.00
92.2
6.8
0.8
BUY
* Under Review for RS and Workpoint
Source: RHB
Figure 49: Ratings for digital TV players ranked 1-5
Source: Industry Data
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Figure 50: Ratings for digital TV players ranked 3-10
Source: Industry Data
18
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Media Sector – P/BV And SD
Figure 51: Media Sector: P/BV and SD
Figure 52: BEC TB : P/BV and SD
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Figure 53: MAJOR TB: P/BV and SD
Figure 54: WORK TB: P/BV and SD
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Figure 55: RS TB: P/BV and SD
Figure 56: VGI TB: P/BV and SD
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
See important disclosures at the end of this report
19
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Banks – Neutral, Gradual Recovery With Downside Risks

We expect GDP growth of 3.4% for 2015F (2014: +0.7%), which is lower
than BoT‟s 4%, due to weak exports, subdued domestic demand and
slower-than-expected public spending

Banks are targeting high single-digit loan growth in 2015 (2014: 5%). We
forecast +8% YoY with increase led mainly by private investments while
infra spending would only be felt from 2H15

Banks expect relatively stable NIMs in 2015. Growing expectations of rate
cut; a modest 25bps cut would not have a significant negative impact on
NIMs

NPLs peaked in 4Q14 (2014: +4%; 2015F: +9%) but credit cost to remain
elevated in 2015. We expect credit cost to remain at 2014‟s level of 73bps.

Sector earnings may grow by 10.5% in 2015F (2014: +4%) with downside
risks coming from (i) weaker-than-expected economic recovery; and
(ii) renewed political unrest

For the most part of 2014, sector multiples were above trend supported by
expectations of stronger earnings in 2015. Given still weak exports and
growing concerns that the military government is moving slower-thanexpected, sector valuations could de-rate back to the mean should
economic growth remain sluggish in the quarters ahead.

Against a backdrop of volatile external economies and the still fragile
domestic economy, we prefer banks with resilient asset quality and stronger
execution on fee income strategies. Our preferred picks are Kasikorn
Bank (KBANL TB, BUY, TP: THB 261.00) and Bangkok Bank (BBL TB,
BUY, TP: THB212.20)
Figure 57: Valuation Table
Source: RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
20
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Banks Estimates: 2015F Core Earnings + 10.5%, PIOP +10%
Figure 73: TH Banks
Source: BoT, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
21
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
TH Banks: Focus Charts
Figure 59: System Loans – Growth Drivers
Figure 58: System Loan Growth vs. Real GDP Growth
Real GDP (% YoY)
35
21.2%
W'sale & retail
Others
Fin. & insurance
P. Consumption
30
20%
16.3%
20
10.5%
7.5%
4.9%
3.4%
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-09
Dec-09
-5
-10
Jun-08
0
Dec-08
2015F
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
0%
2004
10
5
0.7%
Jun-07
2.9%
1.7%
Dec-07
5%
15
Jun-06
6.5%
4.6%
Dec-06
8.6%
Jun-05
10.0%
10%
25
Dec-05
11.8% 12.2%
Dec-04
15%
-5%
Mfg
Real est
(%)
System Loans (% YoY)
25%
Source: BOT, Company data
Source: BOT, Company data
Figure 61: TH Banks – NIM relatively stable in 2014
Figure 60: System Loan-to-Deposit Ratio
Loan Growth (% yoy)
(%)
LDR % (RHS)
(%)
25
130
20
120
Policy rate (RHS)
KBank
SCB
(%)
4.5
BBL
KTB
(%)
4.0
3.86
4.0
110
15
3.5
3.0
3.5
100
2.5
3.0
10
2.0
90
1.0
4Q14
1Q14
2Q13
3Q12
4Q11
1Q11
0.5
2Q10
1.5
3Q09
70
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
0
1.5
2.26
2.0
4Q08
80
2.5
1Q08
5
Source: BOT, Company data
Source: BOT, Company data
Figure 62: TH Banks – NPLs stabilising since 4Q14
Figure 63: TH Banks – Annualised Credit Cost, Quarterly Trend
(THB bn)
BBL
KBank
KTB
SCB
(bps)
300
110
100
BBL
KBank
KTB
SCB
250
90
80
200
70
150
60
100
50
40
50
30
See important disclosures at the end of this report
4Q14
1Q14
2Q13
3Q12
4Q11
1Q11
2Q10
3Q09
4Q08
1Q08
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
-
20
Source: RHB Estimates, SETSMART
22
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Figure 64: TH Banks – 2014 Non-II impacted by lower loan-related fees
BBL
(%)
KBank
KTB
SCB
50
45
41.2%
40
38.6%
35
29.6%
30
25
20
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015F
Source: BOT, Company data
Figure 65: Annualised credit cost, yearly trend
BBL
KBANK
KTB
SCB
FY11
88.0
64.0
101.0
56.0
FY12
47.0
66.0
103.0
66.0
FY13
51.0
85.0
76.0
83.0
FY14
49.1
96.0
75.7
75.2
FY15F
51.3
95.3
73.3
76.7
FY16F
50.3
90.0
71.4
73.2
Source :Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
23
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
TH Banks: Valuation Charts
Figure 66: BBL – 12-mth Fwd Consensus P/E
Figure 67: KTB – 12-mth Fwd Consensus P/E
Source: Bloomberg, RHB
Source: Bloomberg, RHB
Figure 68: KBank – 12-mth Fwd Consensus P/E
Figure 69: SCB – 12-mth Fwd Consensus P/E
Source: Bloomberg, RHB
Source: Bloomberg, RHB
Figure 70: KKP – 12-mth Fwd Consensus P/E
Source: Bloomberg, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Figure 71: TCAP – 12-mth Fwd Consensus P/E
Source: Bloomberg, RHB
24
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Figure 72: TISCO – 12-mth Fwd Consensus P/E
Figure 73: TMB – 12-mth Fwd Consensus P/E
Source: Bloomberg, RHB
Source: Bloomberg, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
25
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Energy Sector – Overweight, Strong Turnaround In Earnings

Our Brent crude oil average price assumption is USD72.50/bbl for
2015F and USD80/bbl for 2016F. We anticipate stronger crude oil price in
2H15 as the oversupply of crude oil is expected to improve by then. OPEC
expects there will be a surplus of 1.13mbpd in 2015, with 1.83mbpd of
surplus supply in 1H15, therefore 2H15 is expected at 0.43mbpd. Note that
Thailand uses Dubai crude oil as its main benchmark and the Brent crude oil
price usually trades at a USD2-4/bbl premium to the Dubai crude oil price.

The outlook for other commodities has not changed significantly since
our last quarter‟s review. We remain bullish on olefins and olefins
derivatives. Aromatics (PX and BZ) spreads are expected to remain weak
as more supply enters the market. Refining spreads over the next twelve
months are expected to soften relative to last year, albeit, 1Q15 spreads
should still see some positive benefits of the relatively softer crude oil price.
We believe that crude oil prices have bottomed out in mid-January at
USD45/bbl. As such, listed refinery and petrochemicals companies should
be able to post positive earnings relative to 4Q14.

Our top BUYs are PTT Public Company Limited (PTT TB, BUY, TP:
THB378.00), PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB, BUY, TP: THB 73.00)
and Thai Oil (TOP TB, BUY, TP:THB 59.50). PTT Public Company
Limited‟s divestment of assets should boost its valuation this year. For PTT
Global Chemical, we believe that US and Indonesia petrochemical complex
investment possibilities should provide some positive catalyst to share
prices this year. Thai Oil as Thailand‟s largest refinery should benefit the
most in terms of stock gains when crude oil price rises. We remain
NEUTRAL on PTT Exploration and Production as higher costs and subdued
sales volume growth have weighed down its attractiveness. Bangchak
Petroleum (BCP TB, NEUTRAL, TP: THB29.50) is also a NEUTRAL as its
major shareholder looks to divest out of this company. IRPC Public
Company Limited (IRPC TB, SELL,TP: THB3.17) remains a SELL as its
core operations just barely break-even, under current economics.
Figure 74: Valuation Table
Stocks
Mkt Cap
(USD m)
PTT
PTTGC
PTTEP
TOP
BCP
IVL
28,746
7,583
13,414
3,369.14
1,335
3,757
Net Profit (Btm)
2013
93,000
33,140
56,186
9,317
4,652
1,326
2014
56,000
15,036
21,490
-4,026
712
4,461
FY2015
107,000
32,867
33,732
7,974
4,980
4,673
EPS (Bt)
FY2016
109,000
35,410
44,057
7,770
5,060
5,964
2013
32.55
7.35
14.15
4.57
3.38
0.28
2014
19.6
3.33
5.41
-1.97
0.52
0.93
FY2015
37.45
7.29
8.5
3.91
3.62
0.97
PER
FY2016
38.15
7.85
11.1
3.81
3.67
1.24
2013
10.2
7.55
7.88
11.93
9.47
93.49
2014
16.94
16.64
20.6
-27.62
61.88
27.79
PB
FY2015
8.87
7.61
13.12
13.94
8.85
26.53
FY2016
9
7.4
10.4
13.9
0.01
0.01
2013
1.39
1.05
1.15
1.22
1.27
2.05
2014
1.36
1.04
1.07
1.34
1.32
1.97
FY2015
1.24
0.96
1.02
1.28
1.21
1.89
FY2016
1.15
0.93
0.97
1.23
1.12
14.37
Source: RHB
Figure 75: Oil price forecast
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
2015
(Ave)
RHB
60.0
70.0
80.0
80.0
72.5
RHB PTTGC (as of Feb 2015)
50.9
51.5
56.5
62.2
55.3
RHB PTTGC (as of Jan 2015)
43.0
41.0
56.0
72.0
53.0
Oil price forecast
PTTEP
55.0
Wood Mackenzie
59.0
Bloomberg
63.9
Source: RB, PTTGC, PTTEP, Wood MacKenzie, Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report
26
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Figure 76: PTT TB / Forward P/BV
Figure 77: PTTGC TB / Forward P/BV
Source: Bloomberg
Source :Bloomberg
Figure 78: PTTEP TB / Forward P/BV
Figure 79: TOP TB / Forward P/BV
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 80: BCP TB / Forward P/BV
Figure 81: IVL TB / Forward P/BV
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
See important disclosures at the end of this report
27
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Thailand Aviation - Neutral
Figure 82:
(THB/RPK)
•
Intensifying competition would cap yield growth. In our view, Thailand‟s
aviation landscape is bound to be more competitive in 2015 on the back of
new carriers being set up in Thailand and around the region. This could cap
the yield recovery for Thai carriers, as they fight for market share.
Furthermore, the abolishment of fuel surcharges also suggests that overall
yields could actually nudge lower by as much as 1% although this will be
outweighed by the significant downside in unit costs given the sharp drop in
jet fuel.
•
4QFY14 earnings review. 4QFY14 earnings disappointed across the
board save for Asia Aviation (AAV TB, SELL, TP: THB4.43). The major
disappointment came from Thai Airways (THAI TB, TRADING BUY,
TP:THB20.6), where yields barely recovered, coupled with its high costs
base as it benefited little from the slump in jet fuel prices given its high
hedging position locked in.
•
Jet fuel price slump a bonus. The slump in jet fuel prices offers a big
boost to earnings despite the sub-par growth in yields. A USD1 change in jet
fuel prices from our base case assumptions could inversely impact earnings
in FY15/FY16 respectively by 5%/3% for Nok Airlines (NOK TB, BUY, TP:
THB16.0) and 3%/3% for Asia Aviation. Given the smaller base in earnings,
the impact on Thai Airways would be much larger, at 91%/13% respectively.
Unfortunately, for Thai Airways, it has locked in at high jet fuel prices into
2015/2016 and as such would not benefit as much as other carriers from the
plunge in oil prices. Carriers with low breakeven load factors (notably Asia
Aviation), given their low-cost structure, could possibly take advantage of
this, ie lowering their air fares to win more market share.
•
NEUTRAL maintained. Despite the stronger earnings prospects in FY15
coming from a very low base, stocks in the Thai aviation sector have priced
in perfection in earnings, notably Asia Aviation and Airports of Thailand
(AOT TB, BUY, TP: THB245.00) given its lofty valuation. Nok Airlines is our
only BUY, given its attractive FY15 P/E and dividend yields. We also like
Thai Airways as its earnings turnaround could gain traction on its
commitment to cut costs and boost productivity. We remain NEUTRAL on
the Thailand aviation sector citing the competitive landscape.
Overall yields for Thai based carriers
Figure 83: % chg YoY on overall yields for Thai based carriers
4.0
15%
3.5
10%
3.0
5%
Nok Air
Thai Airways
4Q2014
3Q2014
2Q2014
1Q2014
4Q2013
3Q2013
2Q2013
1Q2013
4Q2012
3Q2012
2Q2012
1Q2012
4Q2011
-25%
3Q2011
-20%
-
2Q2011
-15%
0.5
1Q2011
-10%
1.0
4Q2010
1.5
3Q2010
-5%
2Q2010
0%
2.0
1Q2010
2.5
Thai AirAsia (Asia Aviation)
Source: Company data
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Nok Air
Thai Airways
Thai AirAsia (Asia Aviation)
Source: Company data
28
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Figure 84: Valuation Table
Market Cap
(USDm )
FV (local
currency)
Recom m endation
Core EPS
grow th
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/B
ROE (%)
FY14F
FY15F
FY14F
FY15F
FY14F
FY15F
FY14F
FY15F
Dividend yield
FY14F
FY15F
FY14F
FY15F
Thai based carriers
Asia Aviation
766.7
4.43
SELL
-80%
658%
114.67
15.13
27.59
7.42
1.28
1.19
1%
8%
0.0%
0.0%
Thai Airw ays International
844.2
20.6
BUY
1009%
na
na
40.43
38.72
8.17
0.67
0.51
-32%
1%
0.0%
0.0%
Nok Airlines Co Ltd
268.6
16
BUY
-147%
na
na
11.41
na
8.02
2.32
2.01
-11%
19%
0.0%
4.2%
Malaysian based carriers
AirAsia
AirAsia X
1,817.6
3.45
BUY
-40%
193%
24.54
11.59
7.85
1.47
1.25
-2%
22%
0.0%
3.2%
318.0
0.52 (ex rights)
NEUTRAL
300%
-100%
na
na
8.38
na
7.85
1.68
1.61
-44%
1%
0.0%
0.0%
13,198.3
251
SELL
17%
30%
35.28
27.04
19.41
15.94
4.43
4.03
13%
16%
1.1%
1.5%
2,588.9
7.35 (ex rights)
BUY
-69%
17%
82.84
70.77
15.63
13.20
1.26
1.23
11%
2%
1.8%
1.9%
ASEAN airports
Airports of Thailand
Malaysia Airports Holdings
Source: RHB
th
Market cap and price multiples as of 6 March 2015 closing
See important disclosures at the end of this report
29
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Contractor Sector– Neutral

Sector operating profit slipped 5.6% YoY. FY14 sector‟s operating profit
declined to THB4.08bn (-5.6% YoY) from THB4.32bn in FY13 as
government infrastructure projects were delayed due to the political unrests
in 1H14. The company only recognised income from projects in its current
orderbook. CH Karnchang‟s (CK TB, NEUTRAL, TP: THB27.60) operating
profit dropped by 19.2% YoY to THB1.56bn, as the company completed the
construction of the MRT Purple Line in 3Q14 and GPM declined to 9.2% in
FY14 from 10.5% in FY13.

Expect moderate earnings growth in FY15. We expect CH Karnchang
and Sino-Thai‟s (STEC TB, BUY, TP: THB31.50) earnings to grow slightly
by 6.8% and 4.9% respectively as there were not many large government
infrastructure projects up for bid in FY14 and the company will likely
continue to recognise revenue from the projects currently on hand. As such,
we expect sector earnings to grow 11.4% YoY to THB3.64bn, supported by
the current orderbook of c.THB168bn.

Accumulate on weaknesses to capture 2016 double digit earnings
growth. Although we are Neutral on the sector, we recommend
accumulating the stocks on share price weakness given many megainfrastructure lining up for bids in 2015 and sector large orderbook of
THB168bn. We expect two MRT and two dual track projects totaling 128bn
to be up for grab this year. Moreover, we expect two motorway projects
totaling 98.9bn to be up for bid this year as well.
Figure 85: Construction revenue was flat in FY14
Figure 86: Orderbook comparison of major construction
Source: Company data, RHB
Source: Company data, RHB
Projects up for grabs in FY15
See important disclosures at the end of this report

We expect two electric mass transit lines (Pink and Orange Lines) and two
double-track project (Jira junction-Khonkaen) totaling c.THB128.38bn to be
up for bids in FY15. We also anticipate the Suvarnabhumi Airport Phase II
and two motorway projects totaling c.THB147.36bn to be up for bids in this
year as well.

E-auction for the double track project (Chachoengsao-Kang Koi) is still
under reviewed by the NCPO. However, we expect the review process to be
completed by 1Q15 and bid results to be announced within 1H15. The
construction is likely to begin in early 1H15.

According to the media, the board of the Airports of Thailand has approved
the plan for the first stage of the Phase 2 expansion of Suvarnabhumi airport
that is estimated to cost a total of THB48.56bn. The project will comprise
three stages: i) construction of midfield satellite terminal, aprons and tunnel
(THB39.04bn), ii) extension on the east-side of the existing passenger
terminal building (THB7.08bn), iii) system design and construction of utilities
(THB2.56bn). We expect the bidding to begin in Aug 2015 at the earliest.
30
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Figure 87: Seven mega projects up for grabs in FY15
Project
MRT
Double Track
Motorw ay
Airport
Value(THBbn)
Process
Orange Line (Cultural Center-Minburi)
82.6
Pink Line (Kaerai-Minburi)
21.08
Jira junction-Khonkaen
24.7
Aw aiting for E-Auction Bidding Process
Cha Choeng Sao- Kang Koi
11.3
EIA Approved&aw aiting cabinet approval
BangpaIn-Nakornrachsrima
84.6
Pattaya-Maptaphut
14.2
Suvarnabhumi Airport Phase II
48.56
Total
Under Tender Preparation
Aw aiting for design approval by DOH
Aw aiting for NCPO approval
287.04
Source: Ministry of Transport, RHB
Figure 88: Valuation Table
E a rn in g s g ro w t h ( % ) E P S ( T H B ) E P S ( T H B )
P E (x)
P E (x)
P / B (x)
P / B ( x )Y ie ld ( % )Y ie ld ( % ) C u rr p ric e
2 0 15 F
2 0 16 F
Re c
2 0 15 F
2 0 16 F
2 0 15 F
2 0 16 F
2 0 15 F
2 0 16 F
2 0 16 F
THB
THB
S TEC
4 .9
10 .3
1.0
1.2
2 3 .5
2 1.3
4 .1
3 .7
2 .1
2 .3
2 4 .6
3 1.5
Buy
UNIQ
4 2 .1
5 5 .0
0 .7
1.0
2 1.8
14 .1
2 .5
2 .2
0 .9
1.4
14 .4
14 .0
Ne u tra l
6 .8
2 0 .0
0 .8
0 .9
3 4 .3
2 8 .6
2 .2
2 .1
0 .9
1.0
2 7 .0
2 7 .6
Ne u tra l
S RICHA
2 1.2
6 .9
3 .4
3 .6
9 .5
8 .9
3 .6
3 .2
7 .4
7 .9
3 2 .0
3 7 .0
Buy
S A MA RT
2 0 .5
2 .3
1.8
1.8
19 .7
19 .2
3 .7
3 .2
2 .5
2 .6
3 5 .0
2 9 .4 Ta ke p ro fit
DEMCO
6 6 .6
3 1.8
0 .8
1.0
17 .6
13 .4
2 .5
2 .2
2 .6
3 .4
13 .4
15 .3
Ne u tra l
16 .1
9 .6
3 .7
4 .1
10 .6
9 .7
2 .8
2 .6
6 .6
7 .2
3 9 .5
3 9 .5
Ne u tra l
CK
A IT
2 0 15 F
TP
Source: RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
31
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction (STEC)
TP:THB31.50, Market Cap: US$1,215m, Average Turnover: US$7.0m

Record high orderbook in FY15. Given Sino-Thai‟s (STEC TB, BUY, TP:
THB31.50) THB50bn-strong orderbook as of Dec 2014 and upcoming
infrastructure project, we expect STEC‟s orderbook to reach a record high
level this year of around THB58bn . We expects Pink and Orange Lines and
one double track projects (Jira junction-Khonkaen), totaling c. THB 130bn,
to be up for bid in FY15. Moreover, we expect Suvarnabhumi Airport Phase
II (THB48bn) to be up for bid in 2H15 at the latest. We believe Sino-Thai
Engineering will likely win at least 15%, or c.THB27bn-35bn of this
upcoming project

Double digit earnings growth expected in 2016: Although Sino-Thai‟s
earnings growth is likely to be relatively flat in 2015, we expect its 2016
earnings to grow by 15% y-o-y, support by revenue recognition from the
construction of SPPs power plant, Parliament building and Dark Green Line
MRT. Moreover, we believe the company is set to benefit from new gas
power plant construction investment as the concessions for 25 small power
producers (SPPs) with total capacity of 2,908 megawatts will start running
out from 2017 to 2020.
Figure 89: STEC’s orderbook expected to reach record high level
Source: Company Data
Figure 90: Forecast and Valuation
Forecasts and Valuations
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
Total turnover (THBm)
19,872
22,294
21,652
22,359
24,900
Reported net profit (THBm)
1,165
1,674
1,521
1,576
1,761
Recurring net profit (THBm)
1,165
1,439
1,521
1,576
1,761
Recurring net profit growth (%)
28.9
23.6
5.6
3.6
11.7
Recurring EPS (THB)
0.98
1.06
1.00
1.03
1.15
DPS (THB)
0.55
0.57
0.50
0.52
0.58
Recurring P/E (x)
26.5
24.5
26.1
25.2
22.5
P/B (x)
5.20
5.20
4.73
4.33
3.95
P/CF (x)
7.2
13.1
18.8
17.2
Dividend Yield (%)
2.1
2.2
1.9
2.0
2.2
9.07
8.76
9.56
9.35
8.39
EV/EBITDA (x)
Return on average equity (%)
Net debt to equity (%)
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
20.1
net cash
24.7
net cash
na
19.0
net cash
18.0
18.3
net cash
net cash
(5.2)
5.9
Source: RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
32
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Unique Engineering (UNIQ)
TP:THB14.00, Market Cap: US$498 Average Turnover: US$7.65m

No longer cheap: Although the company is one of the beneficiary of the
government infrastructure investment plan, we believe the share price has
factored most of the positive news flow already as the share price has
surged 138% since 2013 and is now trading at a valuation of 22.6x FY15
P/E 22.6, in-line with its peers.

Orderbook declined 14.2% YoY to THB24bn at end of FY14 as many
government infrastructure projects were delayed in FY14. We expect
orderbook to recover to its previous record high level in FY15 as we expect
it to win c. THB20bn worth of government infrastructure projects in FY15.
Note that there is a potential downside risk to our earnings forecast if the
construction of MRT Dark Green Line and extension work for Red Line
Grand Station are delayed.
Figure 91: Unique’s orderbook
Source: Company Data
Figure 92: Forecast and Valuation
Forecasts and Valuations
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
Total turnover (THBm)
4,014
6,715
8,109
13,733
18,857
Reported net profit (THBm)
(228)
587
502
714
1,107
Recurring net profit (THBm)
(228)
587
502
714
1,107
(14.4)
42.2
55.0
Recurring net profit growth (%)
Recurring EPS (THB)
DPS (THB)
Recurring P/E (x)
(286.4)
na
(0.35)
0.81
0.54
0.66
1.02
0.00
0.06
0.12
0.13
0.20
18.4
27.6
22.6
14.5
2.85
2.59
2.27
2.8
6.7
1.4
na
P/B (x)
4.84
4.46
P/CF (x)
58.8
7.9
0.0
0.4
0.8
0.9
83.6
10.2
8.9
6.1
4.2
(12.6)
25.1
12.2
12.0
16.6
44.7
87.8
67.7
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Return on average equity (%)
Net debt to equity (%)
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
na
net cash
net cash
(39.4)
(6.0)
Source: RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
33
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
CH Karnchang PCL (CK)
TP:THB26.8, Market Cap: US$1,443m, Average Turnover: US$14.2m

Orderbook to pick up in FY15. As at end-FY14, CH Karnchang‟s
orderbook dropped to THB99bn (-11.61% YoY) as government
infrastructure projects were delayed due to political unrest in 1H14.
However, we expect the company to win at least 20%, or c.THB35bn-45bn
of the upcoming projects in FY15. Moreover, we expect the company to
sign the Nam Bak hydro power plant project in Laos (THB17bn) in FY15. As
such, we estimate the company orderbook to recover to its record high level
of c. THB120bn at the end of FY15.

Moderate earning growth in FY15. We expect the company earnings to
only grow by 5-8% YoY in FY15. We believe the share price has factored in
most of the positive news flow about the government infrastructure projects
already and there is limited upside potential to our TP as the company is
now trading at a demanding valuation of 2.4x P/BV, which is +1 SD above
the stock‟s average -year mean.
Figure 93: CK’s orderbook
Source: Company Data
Figure 94: Forecast and Valuation
Forecasts and Valuations
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
Total turnover (THBm)
20,824
32,677
35,597
38,915
40,854
Reported net profit (THBm)
583
7,674
2,294
1,475
1,597
Recurring net profit (THBm)
73
1,430
1,303
1,475
1,597
1847.5
(8.9)
13.1
8.3
Recurring net profit growth (%)
na
Recurring EPS (THB)
0.04
0.87
0.78
0.87
0.94
DPS (THB)
0.25
0.40
0.23
0.26
0.28
624
32
36
32
29
5.58
2.77
2.54
2.41
2.28
Recurring P/E (x)
P/B (x)
P/CF (x)
517
Dividend Yield (%)
0.9
EV/EBITDA (x)
Return on average equity (%)
Net debt to equity (%)
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
35
42
48
1.5
na
0.8
0.9
1.0
(9.5)
9.9
11.1
10.9
11.7
8.0
62.0
13.1
7.8
8.0
274.0
199.5
173.2
161.6
151.2
14.5
19.4
Source: RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
34
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Figure 95: STEC TB
Figure 96: CK TB
(X)
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Aug-05
+2SD:2.8X
+1SD:2.2X
Mean:1.7x
-1SD:1.1X
-2SD:0.6X
Feb-08
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Figure 97: SAMART TB
Figure 98: DEMCO TB
Feb-13 Mar15
(x)
30
(X
25
25
20
+2SD:20.6
+2SD:16.6
20
+1SD:13.
15
+1SD:15.2
15
Mean:10.7x
10
-1SD:7.8X
10
-2SD:4.8X
5
Mean:9.9
-1SD:4.5X
5
0
Jul-05
Aug-10
Jan-08
Jul-10
Jan-13
Mar-15
0
Mar-07
Nov-09
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Figure 99: AIT TB
Figure 100: SRICHA TB
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Jul-12
Mar15
35
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Thailand Telecoms - Overweight

We are OVERWEIGHT on the sector premised on: i) Digital Economy Policy
including 4G auction (1.8GHz) and National Broadband Policy and ii) the
sector rotation thesis as it‟s laggard performance vis-à-vis the others

Industry service revenue is projected to grow by 5-7% YoY in 2015, driven
by double digit mobile data growth.

Explosive mobile internet/data growth (FY14: +28.6% YoY) due to
affordably priced low-to-mid tier smartphones, attractive handset subsidies
and 3G data bundled packages

The regulatory savings from the 3G licensing framework (5.25% license fee
vs. 25-30% concession fee) should more than offset higher marketing
expenses, driving the decent double digit sector earnings growth

Top sector pick: Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB, BUY,
TP:THB27 .00) as its transformation to „Digital Life Service Provider‟ and
fixed-broadband should offer robust long-term growth. We also like Jasmine
International (JAS TB, BUY, TP:THB10.00) for exposure to the fixed
broadband in upcountry (15% household penetration rate).

Key downside risks for the sector : (i) regulatory changes, (ii) intense
competition in prepaid market and (iii) higher than expected capex

Key upside risks : (i) stronger than expected macroeconomic recovery and
(ii) lower than expected capex
Figure 101: Valuation Table
Source: Company data, RHB estimates ^ closing share price as at Mar 6
Impact of per-second billing structure
Telco industry profile

Service revenue – 70% prepaid : 30% postpaid

Prepaid revenue – 60% voice : 40% non-voice

Postpaid revenue – 45% voice : 55% non-voice

Subscribers – 87% prepaid : 13% postpaid
Impact on Advanced Info Service

AIS‟ subscribers could potentially see more savings being in the
upcountry region (>85%)

Upcountry prepaid users are more price-sensitive

Maximum minutes saved per month approx. 50mins

AIS FY15‟s net profit would drop by 1. -12.2%
Impact on Total Access Communication (DTAC TB, BUY, TP: THB129.00)

DTAC subscribers would have less minutes saved with maximum
savings of approx. 40mins / month

DTAC FY15‟s net profit would decline by 3.4-25.8%

DTAC will see larger impact given its higher voice yield (ARPM) vs AIS
(THB1.05 vs. 0.78 per minute
Actual impact would be minimal in the longer-term given the acceleration in
data revenues and as more subscribers switch to post-paid plans
See important disclosures at the end of this report
36
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Figure 102: Advanced Info Services (AIS)
Source: Company Data, RHB Estimates
Figure 103: Total Access Communication (DTAC)
Source: Company Data, RHB Estimates
Regulatory Developments
Latest developments

The switch to a „per second‟ billing structure will impact the telcos earnings
directly, while the shift to a “per KB” billing will impact data revenues, albeit
marginally

Planned 4G auction for the 1800/900MHz spectrum (initially slated for Aug
and Nov 2014) is expected to held in 3Q-4Q‟15

The reserve price for 1800MHz was previously fixed at THB11.6bn
(THB464m/MHz), a 3% premium to the reserve price of THB450m/MHz for
the 3G 2100MHz spectrum in 2012

The reforms at CAT Telecom and TOT Plc. are key priorities. SOEs should
be “Self-Sufficient” post the concession expiry

SOEs will move toward “Infrastructure Sharing” model to utilize the
concession-expired towers which is also a part of their restructuring process
What is “Digital Economy Policy” ?

Create National Broadband by installing broadband infrastructure with a
budget of THB80bn within 3 years

Target broadband access covering 80% population by end 2015 and up to
95% by end 2020
Our thoughts on regulatory
See important disclosures at the end of this report

We think the billing shift would effect less than expected as the new „per
second‟ packages were more expensive

Advanced Info Service and Total Access Communication are front-runners
for additional spectrum as their existing 1800MHz under concession have in
theory „expired‟. Advanced Info Service‟s 900MHz will be expiring in Sept
2015

We believe the 4G auctions will take place this year as the Deputy Prime
ministry insisted. However, we do not rule out further delays beyond 2015. If
37
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
the auctions postpone, Advanced Info Service might have bandwidth
constraints issue

Every telcos will be awarded and spectrum ownership should be equivalent
Mobile industry developments
Big pictures

Competition has shifted from low-to-mid tier 3rd-party models to in-house
branded handsets with bundled data offers

Telcos are mainly focused on upcountry prepaid subscribers to stimulate
usage with budget THB500-700 model

Intense price competition with the focus on 3G bundling initiatives resulting
in negative handset margins

Data monetization is a key to reverse declining ARPU trend. A shifting to
data „tier-pricing‟ model from „unlimited‟ data plan could take 1 -24 months
Advance Info Service

Transform into „Digital Life Service‟ provider driven by Mobile, fixed
broadband and digital contents

Focus on ramping up its 3G network capacity by installing more base
stations and Super WiFi (30x of 3G speed)

Still no plan for 4G launch due to its spectrum constraint (15MHz of 2.1GHz
left after Sept 2015)

Possible back up plans if auctions postpone including TOT Plc bandwidth
rental and using small cell/cell splitting

Utilize all bandwidth (15MHz) of 2.1GHz for 3G service while 900MHz
reserve only for 2G service

15,000 base stations are under dispute with TOT Plc and another 1,500 with
CAT Telecom
Total Access Communication

„Lars-Ake Norling‟ the former Digi‟s CEO was named as new DTAC‟s CEO
effective April 1

Promote „Internet for All‟ strategy by offering cheapest data packages
among Telcos and Infrastructure sharing

New postpaid plans introduced (unlimited voice with limited data) to shift
industry practice to data tier-pricing model

Focus on network quality improvement by installing 6,500 more 3G/4G base
stations

Allocate 5MHz more bandwidth on 2.1GHz spectrum for 4G services (total
10MHz bandwidth)

11,000 base stations are under dispute with CAT, and signed MOU with
CAT Telecom to i) set up infrastructure sharing joint ventures and ii) transfer
back 25MHz of unused 1,800MHz spectrum to CAT Telecom
True Corporation (TRUE TB, SELL, TP: THB10.40)
See important disclosures at the end of this report

Announced the elimination of deficit after the major restructuring plan in
2013

Collaborate with China Mobile by i) offering 4G handset supported 5
modes/14 bands including China Mobile TD-LTE and ii) low-cost roaming
between Thailand, China and Hong Kong.

We believe that more asset divestment is on the way, from both newly-build
fiber optic network and base stations

Divestment 5.2% in TRUEIF in 1Q14 for funding its operation and possible
divest 10% more if needed

Utilize 10MHz on 2.1GHz spectrum for 4G while operate 3G service mainly
on 850MHz spectrum

7,500 towers are under dispute with CAT Telecom
38
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Figure 104: Telcos 3G and 4G capex spending
Source: Company data
Mobile Industry Statistics
Figure 105: Post/Pre paid subscribers and penetration rate
Figure 106: Mobile revenue market Share
Source: Company data
Source: Company data
Figure 107: Non-voice revenue (THBm) and growth (RHS)
Figure 108: % Regulatory Cost to Service revenue ex. IC
Source Company data
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Source: Company data
39
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Figure 109: Mobile EBITDA Margin
Figure 110: Non – voice revenue contribution
Source: Company data
Source: Company data
Figure 111: Blended ARPU (y-o-y)
Figure 112: Non – voice revenue Market Share (%)
Source Company data
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Source: Company data
40
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Advance Info Service PCL

Digital Life Service transformation is a key driver for long-term growth

Leading share of revenue, EBITDA and subscribers in the market - Widest
3G population coverage of 97%

40.8m 3G subs @ end-4Q14 or 3G penetration of 92.1% with 3G revenue
making up 90% of 4Q14 service revenue

Expect service revenue growth of 4% in 2015, supported by improving
economic sentiment and 29% data growth

Fixed Broadband (FBB) roll out in 2015 with 1m homes passes at a cost of
THB4.6bn – target 80k subs in 2015

Spectrum auction delays could impact its competitive position in the market
(the only operator which has yet to roll out 4G

Back up plans to ramp up capacity: (i) cell splitting and small cells, (ii)
bandwidth rental from TOT Plc

Robust FY14-FY16 CAGR of 14% for core earnings and 23.8% projected for
non-voice revenue

Underleveraged balance sheet – D/E ratio of 0.5x; Net debt/EBITDA of 0.2x.
Dividend yields at 6-7% for FY15/16

BUY with FV of THB279 (WACC: 8.9%, TG: 1.5%)

Key risks: i) irrational competition, ii) higher than expected capex & iii)
regulatory changes
Figure 113: Advance Chart
Advanced Info Services (ADVANC TB)
Price Close
Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)
260
115
250
109
240
104
230
98
220
92
210
86
200
81
190
40
35
30
Source: Company
25
20
15
10
5
75
Data, RHB Estimates
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
149,859
151,662
34,883
Nov-14
148,728
36,274
36,034
43,830
48,099
34,883
36,274
36,697
43,830
48,099
Recurring net profit growth (%)
31.1
4.0
1.2
19.4
9.7
Recurring EPS (THB)
11.7
12.2
12.3
14.7
16.2
DPS (THB)
10.9
12.1
11.7
14.7
16.2
Recurring P/E (x)
20.0
19.3
19.0
15.9
14.5
P/B (x)
16.1
15.3
14.9
13.7
13.2
P/CF (x)
13.8
13.7
11.3
11.6
10.7
4.6
5.2
5.0
6.3
6.9
EV/EBITDA (x)
11.4
11.2
10.9
9.5
9.2
Return on average equity (%)
84.5
81.4
77.9
89.7
92.5
25.3
40.1
78.3
84.5
6.8
0.2
Reported net profit (THBm)
Recurring net profit (THBm)
Dividend Yield (%)
Net debt to equity (%)
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
net cash
Jan-15
Dec-14
146,811
Jul-14
Dec-13
141,568
Total turnover (THBm)
May-14
Forecasts and Valuations
Mar-14
Dec-12
Sep-14
Vol m
Figure 114: Forecast and Valuation
Source: Company Data, RHB Estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
41
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Total Access Communication

Has the biggest chunk of spectrum among the mobile operators (75MHz)

“Internet For All” strategy to drive stronger internet adoption and offer best
value for data top-up

Invest an additional THB5bn capex for 4,369 more 3G/4G base stations
within 1Q15

Attempting to claw back prepaid market share via localized marketing for
specific regions eg. mobile swap campaign

Data monetization might take longer than expected from intense
competition

Looking to reduce longer-term capex by renting 100-500 towers from
TRUEIF

MOU with CAT Telecom for infrastructure sharing after concession ends
and the return of the unused 25MHz of 1.8GHz spectrum

3G subs of 20.2m @ 4Q14 or 3G penetration of 72% – RHB targets 24m
by end-2015

Projected 2014-2016 CAGR of 11% for core earnings and 19.4% for nonvoice revenue

BUY with FV of THB129 (WACC: 10.2%, TG: 1.50%)- stock pays quarterly
dividends with attractive dividend yield of >6%

Key risks include : (i) stronger than expected competition and (ii) regulatory
changes
Figure 115: DTAC Chart
Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)
Price Close
Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)
137
119
127
109
117
99
107
89
97
79
87
69
77
20
59
Source: 18
Company Data, RHB Estimates
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
Forecasts
2 and
Recurring net profit (THBm)
Dec-14
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
94,617
90,414
93,626
96,666
10,729
11,388
13,302
11,278
10,569
Jan-15
Dec-13
89,497
Nov-14
May-14
Mar-14
Reported net profit (THBm)
Dec-12
Sep-14
Valuations
Total turnover (THBm)
Jul-14
Vol m
Figure 116: Forecast and Valuation
11,235
11,843
10,607
11,267
13,181
Recurring net profit growth (%)
(8.4)
5.4
(10.4)
6.2
17.0
Recurring EPS (THB)
4.74
5.00
4.48
4.76
5.57
DPS (THB)
5.06
3.72
6.91
4.90
5.34
Recurring P/E (x)
17.4
16.5
18.4
17.3
14.8
P/B (x)
5.59
5.61
5.99
6.60
6.37
P/CF (x)
8.95
8.11
6.89
9.55
7.29
6.1
4.5
8.4
5.9
6.5
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.14
7.29
7.11
7.07
6.38
Return on average equity (%)
32.3
30.3
31.8
36.6
44.1
Net debt to equity (%)
73.0
74.4
77.3
135.5
137.2
(25.5)
(23.0)
Dividend Yield (%)
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
Source: Company Data, RHB Estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
42
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
True Corp

Only telcos that offer quad services: mobile, landline, fixed broadband and
cable TV

China mobile hold 18% stake in True, in return True received THB52bn
cash to pay off their long-term debt

Par value reduction (from THB10.00 to THB4.00) to eliminate THB63bn
deficit on balance sheet

Expect strongest FY15‟s revenue growth of . % and lowest regulatory fee
due to a wholesale agreement with CAT Telecom

ARPU trending up due to better data monetization with the non-voice
revenue contribution at 46.6% in 4Q14

Overvalue in term of EV/EBITDA and P/E and have no dividend

Positive core earnings in 2014 due to tax shield (THB2bn) and revaluation
on TRUEIF (THB6bn)

Low EBITDA margin on its mobile business only 5.4% VS. AIS and DTAC at
43.8% and 27.8%respectively

3G subs of 21.9m @ 4Q14 or 3G penetration of 92.6% – RHB target 22.5m
by end-2015

Projected 2014-2016 CAGR of 7.7% for revenue and 17.3% for non-voice
revenue

SELL with FV of THB10.40 (WACC: 10.4%, TG: 3.00%)

Key risks include : (i) stronger than expected competition, (ii) earnings
volatility and (iii) regulatory changes
Figure 117: True chart
True Corp (TRUE TB)
Price Close
Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)
16.9
14.9
207
12.9
181
10.9
154
8.9
127
6.9
101
4.9
2
74
Source: Company
Data, RHB Estimates
1
Forecast and Valuation
Vol bn
Figure
1
1
1
118:
1
126,714
1,426
5,124
4,254
5,860
5,455
4,554
(6.9)
(16.5)
0.30
0.22
0.19
46.4
62.7
75.1
4.9
4.5
4.3
10.6
13.7
12.0
Reported net profit (THBm)
Recurring net profit (THBm)
Recurring net profit growth (%)
Recurring EPS (THB)
Recurring P/E (x)
(7,433)
(6,636)
(11,376)
21.9
71.4
(0.46)
(0.78)
na
P/B (x)
15.1
P/CF (x)
69.0
EV/EBITDA (x)
(9,062)
na
49.5
na
Jan-15
Dec-16F
119,352
Nov-14
Dec-15F
109,215
Sep-14
Dec-14
96,214
Jul-14
Dec-13
89,382
May-14
Dec-12
Total turnover (THBm)
Mar-14
Forecasts and Valuations
na
na
17.6
(33.8)
11.8
12.5
Return on average equity (%)
(43.6)
(104.0)
3.8
7.0
5.5
Net debt to equity (%)
671.2
1536.7
52.5
48.4
56.3
47.8
0.0
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
Source: Company Data, RHB Estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
43
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Jasmine International

Fastest growing fixed broadband (FBB) operator in Thailand with ~ 35%
share in upcountry areas

Thailand‟s low FBB household penetration of 27. % (15% upcountry)
augurs well for Jasmine

FTTx services available in 76 provinces with 46.6k subs at 4Q14

Infrastructure fund (JASIF) listed in Mar 2015 with the company booking
additional profits of THB20bn and special THB1.50 dividend

Incurred THB274m in provisions in 3Q14 arising from total creditor‟s claims
of THB1.86bn

ADSL subs of 1.63m @ 4Q14 or 29.9% market share – targeting 2m by end
2015

Projected 2014-2016 CAGR of 13.5% for broadband business revenue

BUY with FV of THB10.00 (WACC: 11.3%, TG: 2%)

Key risks include : (i) legal case with TT&T, (ii) potential THB1.86bn claims
filed by creditors & (iii) competition from new entrants
Figure 119: Jasmine Chart
Jasmine International (JAS TB)
Price Close
Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)
9.40
119
8.90
110
8.40
102
7.90
93
7.40
85
6.90
76
6.40
68
5.90
1000
59
Source: 900
Company Data, RHB Estimates
800
700
600
Figure500
120: Forecast and
400
300and Valuations
Forecasts
200
Total turnover
100 (THBm)
Valuation
Dec-16F
13,697
15,592
1,911
3,038
3,271
17,587
4,801
2,333
3,194
3,657
3,997
4,649
79.1
36.9
14.5
9.3
16.3
Recurring EPS (THB)
0.32
0.45
0.51
0.57
0.66
DPS (THB)
0.03
0.09
0.25
1.65
0.29
Recurring P/E (x)
21.4
15.5
13.6
12.3
10.5
P/B (x)
5.47
4.46
3.93
2.60
2.27
P/CF (x)
13.5
10.5
20.1
1.7
7.1
0.4
1.4
3.6
23.7
4.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
11.0
8.9
7.9
3.9
3.1
Return on average equity (%)
23.4
30.1
27.5
112.4
23.9
Net debt to equity (%)
28.7
9.9
21.3
Recurring net profit (THBm)
Recurring net profit growth (%)
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Reported net profit (THBm)
Dividend Yield (%)
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
Jan-15
Dec-15F
12,268
Nov-14
Dec-14
11,123
Sep-14
Dec-13
10,369
Vol m
Dec-12
net cash
net cash
(11.6)
(6.8)
Source: Company Data, RHB Estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
44
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Figure 121: ADVANC P/E
Figure 122 ADVANC EV/EBITDA
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Figure 123: DTAC P/E
Figure 124: DTAC EV/EBITDA
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Figure 125: TRUE EV/EBITDA
Figure 126: JMART P/E
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Figure 127: JAS P/E
Figure 128: JAS EV/EBITDA
Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Total Access)
See important disclosures at the end of this report
45
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Healthcare - Neutral

We are NEUTRAL due to this sector‟s expensive valuations but recommend
selective buys on various stocks.

Industry revenue is projected to grow by 10-13% YoY in 2015, anticipating
better consumer sentiment.

Resilient comeback. After the political riot stopped in 2Q14, healthcare
sector‟s earnings recovered back to normal level in 3Q14.

Medical tourism, aging population, urbanization are the key growth drivers
for Thailand‟s healthcare spending per capita currently at only 3.9%
compared to Asian countries‟ average of 4.4%.

Bangkok Dusit (BDMS TB, BUY, TP: THB24.20) is dominating the
healthcare sector with its 40 hospital network.

Healthcare index is trading at a premium above 1SD (18.1x) EV/EBITDA at
20.1x and a premium over SET at .1x due to sector‟s defensive
characteristic. In term of P/E, the sector currently trades at 240% over its
long-term mean (13.3x).

Top sector pick: Bangkok Dusit as it benefits from economy of scale from its
hospital networks consolidation.

Key downside risks for the sector: (i) regulatory changes, (ii) intense
competition in prepaid market and (iii) higher than expected capex.

Key upside risks: (i) stronger than expected macroeconomic recovery and
(ii) epidemic in Thailand.
Figure 129: Valuation Table
Source: Company data, RHB estimates ^ closing share price as at Mar 6
See important disclosures at the end of this report
46
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Mega Lifescienses (MEGA TB, BUY,TP: THB19.30)

Long-term play for Indochina pharmacy market. Branded business
expansion in Indochina & African market boost long-term growth

Solid distribution business in CMV, with robust growth of 23% and 24% in
Myanmar and Cambodia

Lower overhead cost and capex going forward as branded sales normalized
and new factory capacity ramping up

Low medical expenses per capita in Myanmar and Vietnam at USD6.0 and
USD23.8 vs. Thailand USD58.90

Awareness in healthy trend as Thai consumer moving into aging society and
spend more on pharmaceutical & nutraceutical products

The revenue grew 16.4% CAGR10-14 and expect to Double both revenue
and profit by 2019

Expect FY14-16F core earnings growth of 13.6% driven by its branded
business expansion in Indochina

BUY with FV of THB19.30 (FY15 P/E 22.8x)

Key risks: (i) weaker-than-expected economic growth and (ii) fluctuating
gross margins
Figure 130: Mega Chart
Mega Lifesciences PCL (MEGA TB)
Price Close
Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)
26.0
117
24.0
105
22.0
94
20.0
82
18.0
70
16.0
59
14.0
14
47
Source: Company
Data, RHB Estimates
12
10
8
Figure 131:
Valuation summary
6
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
7,730
8,469
9,629
537
624
548
630
707
571
624
548
630
707
19.8
9.3
(12.2)
15.0
12.3
Recurring EPS (THB)
1.66
0.88
0.68
0.73
0.82
DPS (THB)
0.21
1.13
0.28
0.36
0.41
Recurring P/E (x)
10.0
19.1
24.6
22.9
20.4
P/B (x)
6.73
3.37
3.63
3.37
3.11
44
490
313
23
29
1.3
6.8
1.7
2.2
2.4
14.1
Recurring net profit (THBm)
Recurring net profit growth (%)
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Reported net profit (THBm)
P/CF (x)
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Jan-15
Dec-14
7,034
2 (THBm)
Total turnover
Sep-14
Dec-13
5,965
Vol m
Dec-12
Nov-14
Forecasts4and Valuations
8.5
13.8
17.3
16.3
Return on average equity (%)
36.0
23.2
14.3
15.2
Net debt to equity (%)
49.4
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
net cash
net cash
15.8
net cash
net cash
(9.6)
(14.8)
Source: Company Data, RHB Estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
47
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Healthcare – P/E, EV/EBITDA and SD
Figure 132: Thai Healthcare Sector
Figure 133: Thai Healthcare Sector
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Figure 134: MEGA P/E
Figure 135: MEGA EV/EBITDA
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
48
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Retail - Neutral

The retail sector is under pressure from poor upcountry economy.

High household debt levels exacerbated by low agricultural prices further
weighs down on recovery in the upcountry region.

Most companies guided for consumer demand to remain flattish in1H15 and
improve in 2H15.

Staple products business would be the first to reap benefit, while
discretionary products will see slower recovery.
Figure 136: Recommendation
Source:
Figure 137: Household debt to GDP in ASEAN
%
100
90
87
84
80
75
70
60
50
40
30
20
13
10
7
6
Indonesia
Philippines
0
Malaysia
Thailand
Singapore
Vietnam
Source: Moody's Investor Service, Sep 2014
See important disclosures at the end of this report
49
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Top BUY – BIG C (BIGC TB, BUY, TP THB265.00)
Industry and company developments

Expect staple demand to see faster improvement during economic recovery
– BIG C is one of the few retailers to show positive SSSG in 4Q14.

New mini Big C distribution centre and Cross Dock Facility to see full year of
cost benefits in FY15F.

Expansion shift from large format to Mini Big C format which is less capex
intensive.

Competition to ease with Tesco facing uncertainly and slowing expansion.

Opportunities to expand in overseas market, specifically in Indochina.
Valuation

DCF-derived TP of THB 265.00 implying 25x FY15F P/E

Dividend yield of 2 – 3%
Figure 138: Valuation Table
Forecasts and Valuations
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
Dec-17F
118,177
121,845
130,691
141,796
151,571
Reported net profit (THBm)
6,976
7,235
8,688
9,543
10,759
Recurring net profit (THBm)
6,976
7,235
8,688
9,543
10,759
14.8
3.7
20.1
9.8
12.7
8.5
8.8
10.5
11.6
13.0
DPS (THB)
2.24
2.55
3.15
3.46
3.91
Recurring P/E (x)
27.1
26.1
21.7
19.8
17.6
P/B (x)
5.10
4.48
3.92
3.44
3.03
14.5
12.6
11.8
Total turnover (THBm)
Recurring net profit growth (%)
Recurring EPS (THB)
P/CF (x)
0.7
Dividend Yield (%)
1.0
1.1
1.4
1.5
1.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
15.8
14.6
12.9
11.6
10.2
Return on average equity (%)
20.3
18.3
19.2
18.5
Net debt to equity (%)
51.7
31.4
20.9
5.9
net cash
4.9
2.1
1.2
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
na
18.3
Source: Company data, RHB
Figure 139: Net gearing trend
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
50
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Top SELL – ROBINS DEPARTMENT STORE (ROBINS TB, SELL, TP THB41.70)
Industry and company developments

Recovery in discretionary products demand remains weak; 4Q14 SSSG was
-6.1%.

Expect slow reception of Robinson‟s new private brand strategy to bring in
new brands to sell exclusively its departmental store

Target to increase 4-5 stores per year in Thailand but any expansion in
Vietnam would be through franchise model until the government grant
operating license

Expect net gearing to increase to 15% to fund expansion capex
Valuation

TP THB41.70 based on 21.5x FY15F P/E in line with regional peer average

Expect EPS to grow at 15.1% CAGR over next three years, coming off from
a low base in FY14.
Figure 140: Valuation Table
Forecasts and Valuations
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15F
Dec-16F
Dec-17F
Total turnover (THBm)
25,600
25,754
28,565
33,090
38,253
Reported net profit (THBm)
1,986
1,927
2,160
2,563
2,942
Recurring net profit (THBm)
1,986
1,927
2,160
2,563
2,942
Recurring net profit growth (%)
19.8
(2.9)
12.0
18.7
14.8
Recurring EPS (THB)
1.79
1.74
1.94
2.31
2.65
DPS (THB)
0.90
0.90
1.01
1.20
1.37
Recurring P/E (x)
26.8
27.7
24.7
20.8
18.1
P/B (x)
4.70
4.35
3.97
3.59
3.24
P/CF (x)
16.5
15.4
15.0
10.3
9.0
1.9
1.9
2.1
2.5
2.9
EV/EBITDA (x)
13.9
13.9
12.2
10.4
9.1
Return on average equity (%)
18.3
16.3
16.8
18.1
18.8
Dividend Yield (%)
Net debt to equity (%)
net cash
Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%)
6.3
15.0
13.9
14.3
(7.7)
(10.0)
(15.6)
Source: Company data, RHB
Figure 141: Store count assumption
Source: Company data, RHB
See important disclosures at the end of this report
51
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Consumer Sector - Neutral
Figure 142: SET commerce index: P/E and SD
Figure 143: BIGC TB: P/E and SD
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Figure 144: CPALL TB: P/E and SD
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Figure 146: CPN TB: P/E and SD
Figure 145: CPF TB: P/E and SD
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Figure 147: GLOBAL TB: P/E and SD
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Total Access)
See important disclosures at the end of this report
52
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Figure 148: HMPRO TB: P/E and SD
Figure 149: MC TB: P/E and SD
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Figure 150: ROBINS TB: P/E and SD
Figure 151: TUF TB: P/E and SD
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Total Access)
See important disclosures at the end of this report
53
Strategy - Thailand
2 April 2015
Hospitality Sector- Overweight
Figure 152: SET hotel index: P/E and SD
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Figure 154: MINT TB: P/E and SD
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
See important disclosures at the end of this report
Figure 153: CENTEL TB: P/E and SD
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
Figure 155: ERW TB: P/E and SD
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Estimates
54
RHB Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage
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55
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56
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a)
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a)
Thailand
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57
Indonesia
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58
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59
Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2014
Excellent
BAFS
BCP
BTS
CPN
EGCO
GRAMMY
HANA
INTUCH
IRPC
IVL
KBANK
KKP
KTB
MINT
PSL
PTT
PTTEP
PTTGC
SAMART
SAMTEL
SAT
SC
SCB
SE-ED
SIM
SPALI
TISCO
TMB
TOP
Very Good
AAV
ACAP
ADVANC
ANAN
AOT
ASIMAR
ASK
ASP
BANPU
BAY
BBL
BECL
BIGC
BKI
BLA
BMCL
BROOK
CENTEL
CFRESH
CIMBT
CK
CNT
CPF
CSL
DELTA
DRT
DTAC
DTC
EASTW
EE
ERW
GBX
GC
GFPT
GUNKUL
HEMRAJ
HMPRO
ICC
KCE
KSL
LANNA
LH
LHBANK
LOXLEY
LPN
MACO
MC
MCOT
NBC
NCH
NINE
NKI
NMG
NSI
OCC
OFM
PAP
PE
PG
PHOL
PJW
PM
PPS
PR
PRANDA
PS
PT
QH
RATCH
ROBINS
RS
S&J
SAMCO
SCC
SINGER
SIS
SITHAI
SNC
SNP
SPI
SSF
SSI
SSSC
STA
SVI
TCAP
TF
THAI
THANI
THCOM
TIP
TIPCO
TK
TKT
TNITY
TNL
TOG
TRC
TRUE
TSTE
TSTH
TTA
TTW
TVO
UAC
VGI
VNT
WACOAL
Good
2S
AF
AH
AHC
AIT
AJ
AKP
AKR
AMANAH
AMARIN
AMATA
AP
APCO
APCS
AQUA
ARIP
AS
ASIA
AYUD
BEAUTY
BEC
BFIT
BH
BJC
BJCHI
BOL
BTNC
BWG
CCET
CGD
CGS
CHOW
CI
CKP
CM
CMR
CSC
CSP
CSS
DCC
DEMCO
DNA
EA
ESSO
FE
FORTH
FPI
GENCO
GL
GLOBAL
GLOW
GOLD
HOTPOT
HTC
HTECH
HYDRO
IFS
IHL
INET
IRC
IRCP
ITD
KBS
KGI
KKC
KTC
L&E
LRH
LST
MAJOR
MAKRO
MATCH
MBK
MBKET
MEGA
MFC
MFEC
MJD
MODERN
MONO
MOONG
MPG
MTI
NC
NTV
NUSA
NWR
NYT
OGC
OISHI
PACE
PATO
PB
PDI
PICO
PPM
PPP
PREB
PRG
PRIN
PTG
QLT
QTC
RCL
SABINA
SALEE
SCBLIF
SCCC
SCG
SEAFCO
SEAOIL
SFP
SIAM
SIRI
SKR
SMG
SMK
SMPC
SMT
SOLAR
SPC
SPCG
SPPT
SST
STANLY
STEC
STPI
SUC
SWC
SYMC
SYNEX
SYNTEC
TASCO
TBSP
TEAM
TFD
TFI
THANA
THIP
THREL
TIC
TICON
TIW
TKS
TLUXE
TMI
TMT
TNDT
TPC
TPCORP
TRT
TRU
TSC
TTCL
TUF
TVD
TWFP
UMI
UP
UPF
UPOIC
UT
UV
UWC
VIH
WAVE
WHA
WIN
WINNER
YUASA
ZMICO
IOD (IOD Disclaimer)
การเปิดเผลผลการสารวจของสมาคมส่งเสริมสถาบันกรรมการบริษัทไทย (IOD) ในเรื่องการกากับดูแลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นี้เป็นการ
ดาเนินการตามนโยบายของสานักงานคณะกรรมการกากับหลักทรัพย์และตลาดหลักทรัพย์ โดยการสารวจของ IOD เป็นการสารวจและประเมินจากข้อมูลของบรษัทจด
ทะเบียนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยและตลาดหลักทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะและเป็นข้อมูลที่ผลู้ งทุนทั่วไปสามารถเข้าถึงได้ ดังนั้นผลสารวจ
ดังกล่าวจึงเป็นการนาเสนอในมุมมองของบุคคลภายนอกโดยไม่ได้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบัติและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมูลภายในในการประเมิน
อนึ่ง ผลการสารวจดังกล่าว เป็นผลการสารวจ ณ วันที่ปรากฎในรายงานการกากับดูและกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเท่านั้น ดังนั้นผลการสารวจจึงอาจ
เปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทัง้ นี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี โอเอส เค จากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการสารวจดังกล่าวแต่อย่างใด