Remote Sensing of Environment 164 (2015) 43–56 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Remote Sensing of Environment journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rse Long-term remote monitoring of total suspended matter concentration in Lake Taihu using 250 m MODIS-Aqua data Kun Shi a, Yunlin Zhang a,⁎, Guangwei Zhu a, Xiaohan Liu a,b, Yongqiang Zhou a,b, Hai Xu a, Boqiang Qin a, Ge Liu c, Yunmei Li c a Taihu Lake Laboratory Ecosystem Research Station, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China b University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China c Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210046, China a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 13 October 2014 Received in revised form 11 February 2015 Accepted 25 February 2015 Available online xxxx Keywords: MODIS Lake Taihu Total suspended matter Wind-induced resuspension Shallow turbid lake a b s t r a c t We have developed and validated a robust empirical model for estimating the concentrations of total suspended matter (TSM) in Lake Taihu (China), a large turbid inland water body. This model was generated using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS-Aqua) medium-resolution (250 m) data gathered from 2003 to 2013 and in situ data collected from a number of cruise surveys. A strong significant correlate relationship between the in situ TSM data and the atmospherically corrected MODIS-Aqua remote sensing reflectance at the 645 nm band (Rrs(645)) was found (R2 = 0.70, p b 0.001, n = 150). From these data, a local TSM model was developed for Lake Taihu. Long-term TSM distribution maps retrieved from the MODIS-Aqua data demonstrated marked temporal and spatial variations. Temporally, significant lower TSM was found in summer and autumn than in winter and spring (p b 0.005, t-test). The significant seasonal variability could be attributed to sediment resuspension due to changes in the wind speed between different seasons. Lake Taihu also experiences large inter-annual variations that are primarily caused by changes in wind force over the region. In particular, the TSM in Lake Taihu from 2006 to 2008 was relatively lower than in other years, which could be explained by the lower mean wind speed during these years compared to the other years. Spatially, the TSM in the Open area, especially in the southern part of this region, was consistently higher than in other sub-regions of Lake Taihu. The coverage of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) generally characterized East Lake Taihu as a region with a relatively lower TSM. Lake topographic conditions, SAV, and runoff discharge jointly contributed to the spatial variations in TSM. © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Total suspended matter (TSM) primarily consists of algal and nonalgal organic detritus, living non-algal organisms, degrading phytoplankton cells, and mineral sediments (Binding, Jerome, Bukata, & Booty, 2008; Shi, Li, Li, & Lu, 2013). TSM plays a critical role in many aspects of lake ecology such as the ecological function of the lake and its biogeochemical cycle (Doxaran et al., 2014). TSM can directly affect light attenuation and vertical distribution (Zhang, Zhang, Ma, Feng, & Le, 2007) and therefore affect phytoplankton productivity (Liu, Zhang, Yin, Wang, & Qin, 2013) and submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) distribution and growth (Chen, Hu, & Muller-Karger, 2007; Miller & McKee, 2004). Moreover, TSM also affects nutrient dynamics (Zhu et al., 2013) and the transport of micropollutants, heavy metals, and other materials (Nguyen, Leermakers, Osan, Torok, & Baeyens, 2005). Therefore, ⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +86 25 86882198; fax: +86 25 57714759. E-mail address: ylzhang@niglas.ac.cn (Y. Zhang). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2015.02.029 0034-4257/© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. acquiring accurate information regarding the TSM distribution patterns contributes greatly to the understanding of lake ecosystem dynamics and the development of effective and quantitative monitoring schemes of aquatic environments, thus improving water quality management (Zhang, Shi, Liu, Zhou, & Qin, 2014). Traditionally, TSM in lake waters has been obtained by cruise samples. The use of a limited number of measurements through traditional point sampling to represent the overall temporal and spatial distribution of the biological parameters has proven to be problematic in lake waters with high spatial and temporal variations in the biogeochemical environment, especially for lakes with large spatial scales. Since the launch of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) in 1973, satellite image data have been used by the ocean color community to acquire the distribution of TSM at large spatial scales, with better spatial distribution and temporal resolution than was obtained from the traditional measurements. Consequently, there is considerable interest in the use of remote sensing methods to obtain synoptic maps of TSM in lake waters, which has become a popular topic in the field of limnology. 44 K. Shi et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 164 (2015) 43–56 Over the past three decades, numerous studies have demonstrated that the TSM distribution in open sea and inland waters can be mapped from various types of satellite remote sensing data, such as the Seaviewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS), and Landsat TM/ETM/ETM+ (Miller & McKee, 2004; Morel, 2001; Nechad, Ruddick, & Park, 2010; Zhang, Dong, Cui, Xue, & Zhang, 2014). With very short revisit time (near-daily coverage), MODIS sensor, on board Aqua platform, launched in May 2002, has two bands that observe the Earth at relatively fine spatial resolution (250 m) (Band 1: 645 nm, from 620–670 nm; Band 2: 859 nm, from 841–876 nm). These two bands have sufficient sensitivity to detect a wide range of variations in water color properties in coastal and inland case-II waters (Chen et al., 2007; Shi, Wang, & Jiang, 2013). The MODIS-Aqua 645 nm band has been widely applied in numerous previous studies to developing TSM estimation models for inland and coastal turbid waters (Feng, Hu, Chen, & Song, 2014; Miller & McKee, 2004; Petus et al., 2014). For example, by employing the MODIS-Aqua 645 nm band, Feng et al. (2014) developed a local TSM estimation model for characterizing the spatial and temporal variations in TSM in the Yangtze Estuary and its adjacent coastal waters, where TSM concentrations covered a large range from 1–1000 mg/L. Ondrusek et al. (2012) suggested that the 645 nm band had a great potential application for estimating TSM in the Chesapeake Bay, where TSM ranges from 6–60 mg/L. This band was also successfully used to estimate TSM in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, the Mississippi River Delta, and the Mississippi Sound, where TSM was lower than 60 mg/L (Miller & McKee, 2004). Moreover, this band has also been widely used in inland and coastal turbid waters to derive Kd(PAR) and turbidity, two measures that are considered surrogates of TSM (Chen et al., 2007; Hu et al., 2004; Shi & Wang, 2010; Son & Wang, 2012; Wang, Shi, & Tang, 2011). Wang, Son, and Harding (2009) developed a new Kd(490) model that combined the current empirical or semi-empirical algorithms for open oceans and the semi-empirical Kd(490) model for turbid coastal waters by utilizing the MODIS-Aqua 645 nm band. This model was then widely used to characterize Kd(490) variations in inland (Wang et al., 2011) and coastal waters (Shi, Wang, et al., 2013; Son & Wang, 2012). These studies demonstrate the great potential usability of the MODIS-Aqua 645 nm to develop TSM estimation models from MODIS-Aqua data acquired for turbid inland and coastal waters. Lake Taihu is a typical large eutrophic shallow lake, with a maximum depth of no more than 3 m and an average depth of only 1.9 m (Liu, Zhang, Wang, & Zhou, 2014; Qin, Xu, Wu, Luo, & Zhang, 2007); the water area of this lake is approximately 2230 km2. The waters of Taihu Lake are consistently extremely turbid and are characterized by high and varying TSM due to terrestrial inputs and sediment resuspension (Wang et al., 2011). In a previous study, we developed a TSM estimation model based on a single band of MERIS image data and investigated the spatial and temporal variations of TSM in Lake Taihu (Zhang, Shi, et al., 2014). The MERIS imagery had fine spatial (full resolution: 300 m) and spectral resolution and a short revisit time (neardaily coverage), and therefore was thought to be an ideal satellite image dataset for monitoring TSM in inland lake waters. However, the sensor has been discontinued since April 2012. Moreover, the amount of the MERIS image data used in our previous study was so insufficient that there were some uncertainties for the temporal–spatial pattern of the TSM distribution because TSM exhibits large variations over very short time periods (Zhang, Shi, et al., 2014). To continuously monitor the TSM in Lake Taihu, this study attempted to develop a TSM estimation model using the MODIS-Aqua 645 nm band data because these data have great potential for monitoring TSM in inland and coastal waters (Feng et al., 2014; Miller & McKee, 2004; Petus et al., 2014). Until now, no report has been systematically conducted to acquire the longterm TSM distribution patterns for Lake Taihu using MODIS imagery data. However, the long-term TSM distribution patterns for this lake are markedly essential for environmental evaluations and ecological conservation planning. This study was motivated by the need for an easily operational model for r remotely sensed estimations of TSM from MODIS imagery data and by the lack of high spatial and temporal resolution TSM data from Lake Taihu. Therefore, we sought to address these two needs. The aims of the present study are to (1) develop a model to estimate TSM for a shallow and extreme turbid inland lake water based on the MODIS-Aqua 645 nm band, (2) generate maps of TSM data with high spatial and temporal resolution, and (3) subsequently use the derived TSM products from the 2003–2013 MODIS imagery data to characterize the long-term TSM distribution patterns in Lake Taihu. 2. Materials and methods 2.1. Sampling sites and schedule The in situ dataset in this study contained 2432 water samples and 62 Rrs(λ) measurements that were collected from two sources (Table 1). First, from January 2003 to December 2013, a total of 2432 water samples were collected from a long-term monthly observations plan (LMOP) performed by the Lake Taihu Laboratory Ecosystem Research (TLLER) team. Second, a total of 62 Rrs(λ) measurements were collected from Lake Taihu in November 2007 (5 Rrs(λ) measurements), November 2008 (14 Rrs(λ) measurements), May 2010 (7 Rrs(λ) measurements), May (26 Rrs(λ) measurements) and August 2013 (10 Rrs(λ) measurements). The spatial distribution of all sampling sites in Lake Taihu can be found in Fig. 1. The detailed information about the sampling is listed in Table 1. To reveal the spatial variations of the TSM in the varied aquatic environments of Lake Taihu, we divided this lake into six sub-regions: Meiliang Bay, Zhushan Bai, Gonghu Bay, Open area, Xukou Bay, and East Lake Taihu (Fig. 1). 2.2. Measurement of bio-optical parameters Chlorophyll a (Chla) concentration was used to assess the performance of our proposed TSM estimation model. Optical properties of Lake Taihu could be affected by Chla due to its absorption and scattering (Shi, Li, et al., 2013), and therefore, Chla may have some impacts on the performance of our proposed TSM estimation model. We used Whatman GF/F fiberglass filters (an averaged pore size of 0.7 μm) to filter water samples. Chla were extracted using 90% ethanol at 80 °C from the filtered fiberglass and spectrophotometrically analyzed to measure the absorption densities at 750 nm and 665 nm. The Chla content could be calculated from the absorption densities at the two wavelengths (Jespersen & Christoffersen, 1987). The in situ TSM was obtained by filtering water samples (100–500 ml according to the amount of particles) using 0.7 μm pore size-Whatman GF/F fiberglass filters which had been pre-combusted at 550 °C for four hours; the filters were subsequently dried at 105 °C and weighed using an electrobalance with an accuracy of 0.01 mg. Using a Li-Cor 192SA underwater quantum sensor (Li-cor, Inc., Lincoln, NE) connected to a Li-Cor 1400 data logger (http://www.licor. com), the downwelling photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) Table 1 Information about the sampling cruises. Sampling period Number of samples Measurements 2003–2004 (monthly) 2005–2013 (monthly) November 11–21, 2007 November 10–21, 2008 May 12, 2010 May 5–14, 2013 August 7–8, 2013 272 2160 5 14 7 26 10 TSM, SDD TSM, SDD, Kd(PAR) Rrs Rrs Rrs Rrs Rrs K. Shi et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 164 (2015) 43–56 45 Fig. 1. Distributions of sampling sites. (a) indicates the monthly cruises from 2003 to 2013; THL00–THL09 sites are for odd-numbered months from 2003–2004 and THL00–THL13 sites are for even-numbered months during these years; sites THL00–THL17 (except sites THL02, THL09, THL11–12, and THL15) are for the second two months of each season from 2005–2013, and sites THLL00–THLL32 (except THLL02) are for the last month of each season during these years. (b) Indicates the second source of the in situ data set used in this study. measurements were collected just below the water surface (0 m) and at six additional depths (0.2, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, and 2.0 m) on the sunny side of the boat. The Li-Cor 192SA was installed in a stabilizing frame that assured the proper orientation of the sensor to minimize shading effects. Using the instantaneous mode of the Li-1400 data logger, which was configured to display 15-second running averages of 1-second measurements, three PAR values were recorded for each depth at 1-minute intervals and the mean value was considered the PAR intensity for that depth. The diffuse attenuation coefficient of PAR (Kd(PAR)) could be calculated from nonlinear regression of the underwater irradiance profile (cf. Shi, Zhang, Liu, Wang, & Qin, 2014). Only Kd(PAR) values calculated from regressions with R2 ≥ 0.99 were accepted. We used a standard 30-cm diameter Secchi disk to measure the Secchi disk depth (SDD). 2.3. Remote sensing reflectance measurement We used an ASD (Analytical Spectral Devices) field spectrometer (Analytical Devices, Inc., Boulder, CO) to measure the total downwelling and upwelling radiance. The instrument had a viewing field of 25° and a sensitivity range from 350 to 1050 nm in 1.58 nm increments with 512 wavelengths. The “above-water method” was used to measure the spectra from the water surface (Tang, Tiang, Wang, Wang, & Song, 2004). An optical fiber was positioned at a height of approximately 0.3 m above the water surface and each spectrum was sampled 90° azimuthally from the Sun and at a nadir viewing angle of 40°. The radiance spectra of the reference panel, the water, and the sky were measured ten times for each site. The spectra at each sampling site were averaged to obtain Rrs(λ). In the process of extracting Rrs(λ), the skylight reflectance at the air–water surface was 2.2% for calm weather, 2.5% for wind speeds of up to 5 m/s, and 2.6%–2.8% for wind speeds of approximately 10 m/s, and the reflectance of the gray panel was accurately calibrated to 30% (Mobley, 1994). 2.4. Remote sensing data and meteorological data Remote sensing data collected by MODIS-Aqua were used to achieve sufficient spatial and temporal coverage of Lake Taihu. The MODIS-Aqua data were acquired at high frequency (1 image per day) since 2002 and are freely available. These data have a maximum spatial resolution of 250 nm (the first two bands) and allow for the monitoring of Lake Taihu over multi-annual time periods at medium-resolution. The MODIS-Aqua level 0 data (raw digital counts) from 2003 to 2013 were obtained from the U.S. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC, http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/). We used SeaDAS 6.0 to produce the calibrated at-sensor radiance from the level 0 MODIS-Aqua data. There were more than 4000 data granules covering this study region from January 2003 to December 2013. Among these granules, 1109 scenes with high quality were selected after visual examination to exclude those significantly affected by clouds, sun glint, and thick aerosols. Fig. 2 gives the temporal distribution of the MODIS-Aqua scenes used in this study. Overall, there was at least one image in any given month to assure that monthly changes in the TSM could be captured. The monthly mean wind speed data from 2003 to 2013 were acquired from the nearest meteorological station to Lake Taihu (Dongshan meteorological station, Fig. 1). The data were downloaded from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System (http://cdc.c.a.gov. cn/). A detailed introduction to these data and the Dongshan meteorological station can be found in our previous studies (Shi et al., 2014; Zhang, Shi, et al., 2014). 2.5. Atmospheric correction method Traditional methods for atmospheric correction of the MODIS data collected over the water surface are based on the assumption that the water reflectance in the near-infrared bands can be considered zero (Wang, Son, Zhang, & Shi, 2013). However, this method may lead to large errors for optically complex inland waters, especially for extremely turbid waters because reflectance in the near-infrared bands is much greater than zero (Wang et al., 2011). An approach for atmospheric correction for the MERIS data collected over land was developed based on dense vegetation targets by Guanter, Gonzalez-Sanpedro, and Moreno (2007). The application of this approach to retrieving aerosol loading and water reflectance data from the MERIS data over optically complex inland waters was previously tested (Guanter et al., 2010). Calculating the reflectance of close-to-land water pixels through spatial extension of atmospheric parameters derived over neighboring land pixels can 46 K. Shi et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 164 (2015) 43–56 Fig. 2. Temporal distributions of the MODIS-Aqua scenes used in this study. avoid the spectral response of the water constituents (Guanter et al., 2010). Thus, we selected this atmospheric method, which was originally developed for land, to derive the water reflectance from the MODISAqua data over Lake Taihu. Several previous studies (Guanter et al., 2010; Levy, Remer, Mattoo, Vermote, & Kaufman, 2007) have indicated that the surface reflectance of dense vegetation at 470 nm (close to 469 nm) is significantly correlated with the reflectance from the top of atmosphere of dense vegetation at shortwave infrared bands (SWIR) (1240 and 2200 nm). This is because shortwave infrared bands can be free of aerosol effects. Based on these relationships, the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) at 470 nm and its contributions to the reflectance from the top of the atmosphere could be extracted using a radiative transfer model (Guanter et al., 2010). Finally, the water surface reflectance could be derived by subtracting the contributions of aerosol from the total reflectance from the top of the atmosphere. Several steps were needed for this approach in performing the atmospheric correction of the MODIS-Aqua data over Lake Taihu: (1) the selection of dense dark vegetation targets, (2) the calculation of the surface reflectance at 469 nm, (3) an inversion of the aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (AOD550), and (4) the retrieval of the water Rrs(λ) from the MODIS-Aqua data (Guanter, Gomez-Chova, & Moreno, 2008; Guanter et al., 2007, 2010; Levy et al., 2007). 2.6. Comparison of satellite and in situ data Ideally, the satellite data and in situ data should be concurrent within a period determined by the hourly variation of the process being measured. We set the criterion for matching the satellite data and the in situ observations to ≤3 h (the time interval between the in situ measurements and their corresponding MODIS-Aqua data) to minimize the effects of the temporal difference between the in situ and MODIS-Aqua measurements. Among all the collected samples, our criterion produced 300 in situ TSM measurements-satellite derived Rrs and 62 in situ Rrs -satellite derived Rrs “matches” of data, i.e., data pairs of the MODISAqua images and the in situ data collected represented by the same pixel. It should be noted that the match between the MODIS-Aqua derived data and the Rrs(645) value measured in situ were used for assessing the performance of the atmospheric correction method. mathematical functions. To further understand the applicability of the model to estimating the TSM from the MODIS-Aqua data, we assessed the model's performance using the independent validation dataset consisting of 150 in situ TSM measurements. To validate the model, we used values for the in situ measurements of TSM ranging from 13.9 mg/L to 301.3 mg/L, with an average of 48.9 mg/L (S.D. = 36.4 mg/L). The MODIS-Aqua measurements from 2003 to 2013 for Lake Taihu were acquired to generate the water remote sensing reflectance using the atmospheric correction method mentioned in Section 2.5. These satellite image data were then used to derive spatial and temporal TSM distributions using the developed model from which the monthly mean, seasonal mean and annual mean TSM products for Lake Taihu were produced. 2.8. Statistical analysis and accuracy assessment Statistical analyses that included calculations of the average, maximum, and minimum values and linear and non-linear regressions were performed using the SPSS 17.0 software (Statistical Program for Social Sciences). Correlation analysis was used to investigate the relationships between the variables. Significance levels were reported to be significant (p b 0.05) or not significant (p N 0.05). The accuracy of the algorithms was assessed by calculating the relative error (RE), the mean absolute percent error (MAPE), and the rootmean-square error (RMSE) between the measured and predicted values (Shi et al., 2014). 3. Results 3.1. Water optical and biogeochemical conditions Overall, the concentrations of the water constituents measured from each sampling site in Lake Taihu presented large spatial and temporal variability (Fig. 3 and Table 2). The average TSM during the sampling period was 54.2 mg/L (S.D. = 47.7 mg/L), with a maximum of 343.9 mg/L 2.7. Development and validation of the TSM model We randomly divided the 300 TSM-satellite derived Rrs “matches” of the data into two parts: 150 pairs were used to develop a TSM estimation model, and 150 pairs were used to validate the model. The calibration dataset contained 150 samples, with the in situ measurements for TSM ranging from 15.8 mg/L to 218.6 mg/L and averaging 47.6 mg/L ((S.D. (Standard deviation)) = 26.7 mg/L). In this study, we tried to use the five types of mathematical functions (linear, logarithmic, exponential, power law, and quadratic) to express the relationships between the MODIS-Aqua derived Rrs(645) and the TSM. The optimized model could be determined by assessing the performance of these Fig. 3. Frequency distribution and cumulative percentages of TSM measured in situ in Lake Taihu from 2003–2013. K. Shi et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 164 (2015) 43–56 Table 2 Statistics of water quality and optical parameters in Lake Taihu from the in situ data gathered during 2003 and 2013. Spring Summer Autumn Winter Overall Statistics TSM (mg/L) Chla (ug/L) SDD (m) Kd(PAR) (m−1) Minimum Maximum Mean S.D. Minimum Maximum Mean S.D. Minimum Maximum Mean S.D. Minimum Maximum Mean S.D. Minimum Maximum Mean S.D. 2.7 325.9 58.4 47.4 1.7 343.9 50.4 39.9 1.8 299.8 49.7 39.2 3.3 311.4 56.8 50.7 1.7 343.9 54.2 47.7 0.6 189.7 14.9 19.0 0.9 491.2 33.5 46.1 0.8 527.3 28.0 48.1 1.2 70.3 10.4 9.2 0.6 527.3 23.3 87.5 0.0 2.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.5 0.4 0.3 0.8 17.1 4.7 2.8 0.7 17.7 4.4 2.4 0.7 21.5 4.5 2.7 0.9 18.4 4.8 3.1 0.7 21.5 4.6 2.8 and a minimum of 1.7 mg/L (Fig. 3 and Table 2). Of all the samples, over 60% of the samples had TSM values of more than 30 mg/L (Fig. 3). Generally, the average TSM values in the spring (58.4 mg/L, S.D. = 47.4 mg/L) and winter (56.8 mg/L, S.D. = 50.7 mg/L) were larger than those in the autumn (49.7 mg/L, S.D. = 39.2 mg/L) and summer (50.4 mg/L, S.D. = 39.9 mg/L). The average values over the four seasons are considerably higher for Lake Taihu than for other bodies of water (Park & Latrubesse, 2014; Zhang, Dong, et al., 2014), demonstrating that the sediments in this large shallow lake are vulnerable to suspension, resulting in relatively high concentrations of TSM in the water column. Thus, Lake Taihu could be considered an extremely turbid inland water. Fig. 4. MAPE of MODIS-Aqua atmospheric correction at 412 nm, 443 nm, 469 nm, 488 nm, 531 nm, 555 nm, 645 nm and 859 nm (a), and the comparison between the Rrs(645) measured in situ and derived from the MODIS-Aqua data (b). 47 The concentration of Chla exhibited a very wide range of 0.6 to 527.3 μg/L, with an average of 23.3 μg/L (S.D. = 87.5 μg/L). The highest average Chla value was reasonably found in the summer (33.5 μg/L, S.D. = 46.1 μg/L), whereas the lowest average value was observed in the winter (10.4 μg/L, S.D. = 9.2 μg/L). The highest average Chla value in Lake Taihu corresponded to strong phytoplankton blooms, occurring in the summer (Hu et al., 2010; Shi et al., 2014). The high Chla level in Lake Taihu indicated that this water was under hypertrophic conditions (Qin et al., 2007). Both Kd(PAR) and SDD showed large variations in Lake Taihu: Kd(PAR) ranged from 0.7 m−1 to 21.5 m−1, with an average of 4.6 m−1 (S.D.−2.8 m−1), and SDD ranged from 0 m to 2.5 m, with an average of 0.4 m (S.D. = 0.3 m). The low SDD and high Kd(PAR) values were characteristics of a typical shallow and extremely turbid inland body of water, where the high TSM induced by sediment resuspension noticeably increased the light attenuation and decreased water clarity. There exhibited strong correlation between TSM and Kd(PAR) (R2 = 0.79; p b 0.001), and between TSM and SDD (R2 = 0.73; p b 0.001), suggesting a key role of TSM in the optical environment in Lake Taihu. 3.2. Rrs(645) derived from MODIS-Aqua data compared with in situ measurements The accuracy of the atmospheric correction was evaluated through the comparison of the MODIS-Aqua derived and in situ measurements of Rrs(λ) (Fig. 4). These matches were spectrally resampled using the spectral response function of the MODIS bands. Overall, the atmospheric correction performed well for Lake Taihu. Fig. 4 shows the relative errors between the MODIS-Aqua derived and in situ measurement of Rrs(λ) at the selected seven MODIS-Aqua Fig. 5. Calibration (a) and validation (b) of the proposed model for estimating TSM in turbid Lake Taihu. Rrs(645) was derived from the MODIS-Aqua data using atmospheric correction. 48 K. Shi et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 164 (2015) 43–56 bands, including the in situ Rrs(λ) data measured in Lake Taihu for five different time periods: November 11–21, 2007 (11 measurements), November 10–21 (14 measurements), 2008, May 12, 2010 (7 measurements), May 5–14, 2013 (26 measurements), and August 7–8, 2013 (10 measurements). The relative errors at 412 nm, 443 nm, 488 nm, 531 nm, 555 nm, and 645 nm were less than 30%; the largest relative error appeared at 859 nm (N90%), whereas the lowest relative error was found at 645 nm (b12%, RMSE = 0.004). Comparisons between the MODIS-Aqua derived and the in situ measured Rrs(645) data showed that these values were in good agreement, with a highly significant linear relationship (R2 = 0.77; p b 0.001) (Fig. 4). The MODIS-Aqua derived and in situ measured Rrs(645) values were evenly distributed along the 1:1 line (Fig. 4). These results indicated that the atmospheric correction method is only suitable for wavelengths ≥ 645 nm. For shorter wavelengths, the method requires improvement. In summary, the validation results demonstrated that the atmospheric correction method based on land targets can produce reasonably good water Rrs(λ) data for inland Lake Taihu from the MODIS-Aqua data. The best performance of the atmospheric correction method at 645 nm is encouraging and clearly demonstrates that the MODIS-Aqua derived Rrs(645) data could be used for remotely sensed estimations of the concentrations of water constituents, such as the TSM (Doxaran et al., 2014; Wang et al., 2009, 2011; Zhang, Dong, et al., 2014). 3.3. Model development and validation Correlation analysis showed that there was a significant positive correlation between the in situ measured TSM and the MODIS-Aqua derived Rrs(λ). The MODIS-Aqua derived Rrs(645) exhibited a strong correlation with the in situ TSM measurements (R2 = 0.70; p b 0.001). The noticeably high correlation between the in situ measurement of TSM and the MODIS-Aqua derived Rrs(645) was similar to the findings of numerous previous studies (Feng et al., 2014; Miller & McKee, 2004; Ondrusek et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2011, 2013; Zhang, Dong, et al., 2014). Among the five types of mathematical functions (linear, logarithmic, exponential, power law, and quadratic) we used to establish the relationships between MODIS-Aqua derived Rrs(645) data and the in situ TSM calibration dataset, the exponential function gave the best precision with the highest determination coefficient (R2 = 0.70; p b 0.001) and the lowest MAPE (23%) and RMSE (14.3 mg/L) (Fig. 5). The developed model based on the MODIS-Aqua derived Rrs(645) data were defined by Eq. (1): TSM ¼ 9:65 exp½58:81 ðRrs ð645Þ: ð1Þ The proposed model performed well in the validation dataset (Fig. 5). The RE of the proposed model for the validation dataset varied from 0.3% to 65%, with a MAPE value of 24.6% (RMSE = 14.0 mg/L). The Fig. 6. Maps of the MODIS-Aqua derived TSM for four seasons in Lake Taihu generated using the proposed model. K. Shi et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 164 (2015) 43–56 relative errors of 46% and 83% for the validation samples used in the proposed model were below 20% and below 40%, respectively. Comparisons between the TSM measured in situ and the TSM estimated using the model based on the MODIS-Aqua data proposed in this study 49 showed that these values were in good agreement, with a highly significant linear relationship (R2 = 0.80; p b 0.001) (Fig. 5). The in situ and estimated TSM values were evenly distributed along the 1:1 line (Fig. 5). These results indicated that the proposed model based on the Fig. 7. MODIS-Aqua derived (2003–2013) monthly mean TSM in Lake Taihu from January to December. 50 K. Shi et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 164 (2015) 43–56 MODIS-Aqua derived Rrs(645) data could be used with satisfactory performance to retrieve the TSM for the validation dataset in this extremely turbid inland water. The relationships between the validation RE of the model and Chla and between the RE and Chla/TSM were determined and used to examine the factors affecting the model performance. There was no statistically significant relationships between the RE and Chla (R2 = 0.02), or between the RE and Chla/TSM (R2 = 0.002), indicating that the model performance was not sensitive to these factors. In summary, a TSM retrieval model based on MODIS-Aqua was established and validated for Lake Taihu, exhibiting good performance. The proposed model could have satisfactory performance in the extremely turbid waters of other similar shallow turbid lakes (Volpe, Silvestri, & Marani, 2011). Thus, our proposed model could be used to map the long-term TSM distribution patterns for Lake Taihu from all available MODIS-Aqua image data collected from 2003 and 2013, facilitating the study of the spatial and temporal changes of TSM in this water. 3.4. Temporal variations of TSM 3.4.1. Seasonal variations Figs. 6 and 7 respectively provide the seasonal and monthly means of the MODIS-Aqua derived TSM products in Lake Taihu using our proposed model. Generally, the waters in Lake Taihu were characterized by high TSM in all four seasons. There was strong seasonal variability in TSM over the entire lake. Overall, the waters in the entire lake were more turbid (i.e., high TSM) in the spring (March to May) and winter (December to February) seasons than in the summer (June to August) and autumn (September to November) seasons. The TSM values significantly increased in spring compared to autumn (p b 0.005, t-test), and the mean values in the entire lake for spring and autumn were 61.8 mg/L and 47.5 mg/L, respectively. The highest mean TSM value (65.6 mg/L) for the entire lake was found in March, whereas the lowest mean TSM value (44.1 mg/L) appeared in September. These results are in agreement with the findings in the study by Wang et al., 2011, which demonstrated that the Kd(490) derived from the MODIS-Aqua data (diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm, an indicator of TSM) for Lake Taihu in the spring and winter were generally higher than the Kd(490) value in the summer and autumn. Time series of the seasonal averages of the MODIS-Aqua derived TSM values from 2003 to 2013 were constructed for the six regions (Meiliang Bay, Open area, Xukou Bay, Zhushan Bay, Gonghu Bay, and East Lake Taihu) and the entire lake by spatially and temporally averaging all valid pixels over the water for each region (Fig. 8). In the spatial distribution, the highest TSM values appeared in the Open area, Fig. 8. MODIS-Aqua derived seasonal time series (2003–2013) of TSM for the regions of (a) Meiliang Bay, (b) Zhushan Bay, (c) Open area, (d) Gonghu Bay, (e) Xukou Bay, (f) East Lake Taihu, and (g) the entire lake. K. Shi et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 164 (2015) 43–56 especially in the southern part of this region, while lower values were found in Meilang Bay, Zhushan Bay, Xukou Bay, Gonghu Bay and particularly East Lake Taihu during all seasons. The seasonal patterns of the 51 MODIS-Aqua derived TSM distribution for the Open area, East Lake Taihu, Xukou Bay, and Gonghu Bay were generally similar to those of the entire lake, showing higher values in the winter and spring seasons Fig. 9. Annual mean TSM distributions of Lake Taihu from 2003 to 2013. 52 K. Shi et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 164 (2015) 43–56 and lower values in the summer and autumn seasons. Some interesting characteristics are shown in the seasonal pattern of MODIS-Aqua derived TSM for Meiliang Bay and Zhushan Bay, where the waters were dominated by algae particles. In fact, these two regions have different seasonal patterns of TSM; in particular, the two regions have opposite highs in TSM variations. For Meiliang Bay and Zhushan Bay, peak concentrations of TSM appeared in the summer and autumn seasons, while the peak concentrations of TSM for the other four regions in Lake Taihu occurred in the spring and winter seasons, reflecting the effects of algae on TSM variations in Meiliang Bay and Zhushan Bay. This is because the primary mechanisms for significant TSM seasonal variations are different: the TSM in the waters of Meiliang Bay and Zhushan Bay were dominated by phytoplankton and thus the phytoplankton biomass was a main factor controlling the TSM variations; by contrast, the main contributor to the TSM in the other four regions was windinduced sediment re-suspension. Peaks in the amount of phytoplankton biomass in Meiliang Bay and Zhushan Bay generally appeared in the summer and autumn seasons (Hu et al., 2010; Wang et al., 2011, 2013), eventually leading to a high TSM in the summer and autumn seasons for these two regions. 3.4.2. Inter-annual variations The annual means of the MODIS-Aqua derived TSM maps for Lake Taihu are presented in Fig. 9, demonstrating the inter-annual changes in the TSM from 2003 to 2013. The lowest annual mean TSM value was 48.5 mg/L in 2003 and the highest value was 57.1 mg/L in 2005, revealing that Lake Taihu experienced moderate spatial and inter-annual variations in the TSM. The TSM in Lake Taihu from 2003 to 2013 experienced three markedly different inter-annual variations: TSM simply increased from 2003 to 2005, decreased sharply in 2006 to 2008, and then started to increase from 2009 to 2013 (Fig. 10). Lower wind speeds in 2006 to 2008 than usual (Hu et al., 2010) resulted in the significantly lower TSM values in Lake Taihu from 2006 to 2008 than in the periods of 2003 to 2005 and 2009 to 2013 (t-test, p b 0.005). The low TSM could result in more light penetration into the water column and thus was conducive to cyanobacteria growth in Lake Taihu. The time-series presented both significant spatial and inter-annual variability from 2003 to 2013 (t-test, p b 0.005) (Fig. 10). Overall, the TSM in the entire lake varied widely, from 11.7 mg/L in October, 2006 to 108 mg/L in December, 2012, with a long-term mean of 54.1 mg/L (S.D. = 19.2 mg/L). The TSM in East Lake Taihu was generally the lowest among the six regions from 2003 to 2006; however, from 2007 to 2013, Zhushan Bay was the region with the lowest TSM. The TSM in the Open area was consistently higher than in other five regions, ranging from 10.7 mg/L in January, 2003 to 131.9 mg/L in November, 2013, with a long-term mean of 59.9 mg/L (S.D. = 23.3 mg/L). The long-term mean values for TSM in Meiliang Bay, Xukou Bay, Zhushan Bay, Gonghu Bay, and East Lake Taihu were 45.6 mg/L (S.D. = 24.4 mg/L), 46.9 mg/L (S.D. = 23.3 mg/L), 37.1 mg/L (S.D. = 24.0 mg/L), 44.0 mg/L (S.D. = 21.2 mg/L), and 37.0 mg/L (S.D. = 23.9 mg/L), respectively. Fig. 11. TSM spatial distribution in Lake Taihu averaged from all TSM estimates from the MODIS-Aqua data gathered from 2003–2013 (a) and spatial S.D. distribution in Lake Taihu based on all TSM estimates from MODIS-Aqua data gathered from 2003–2013 (b). 3.5. Spatial distribution characterization of TSM The MODIS-Aqua derived TSM data from 2003 to 2013 were averaged to calculate the regional TSM distribution for Lake Taihu Fig. 10. MODIS-Aqua derived annual mean TSM for the six sub-regions of Lake Taihu and the entire lake. K. Shi et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 164 (2015) 43–56 53 (Fig. 11(a)). The TSM was highest in the southern part of the Open area, followed by the middle part of the Open area. In Meiliang Bay, the TSM increased from the inner to the outer regions. These results are in agreement with several previous studies (Liu et al., 2013, 2014; Wang et al., 2013). The spatial distribution of the S.D. values was also calculated from the MODIS-Aqua derived TSM values between 2003 and 2013 (Fig. 11(b)). The S.D. of the TSM values ranged from 10 mg/L in East Lake Taihu to 80 mg/L in the Open area, with an average of 41.3 mg/L, suggesting a substantial spatial variation in the TSM. The largest S.D. values were found in the southern parts of the Open area and East Lake Taihu, whereas the lowest values were found in the northern part of the Open area, near Meiliang Bay and Xukou Bay. The variations of the TSM in the southern parts of the Open area and East Lake Taihu were larger than in the other regions of Lake Taihu. 4. Discussion 4.1. Characteristics of TSM and its role in the water optical environment from the in situ data During the sampling periods evaluated in the present study, the in situ TSM values were high, ranging from 1.7 mg/L to 343.9 mg/L and averaging 54.2 mg/L (S.D. = 47.7 mg/L). These results were similar to previous studies in Lake Taihu (Wu et al., 2013; Zhang, Shi, et al., 2014) and indicate that Lake Taihu is an extremely turbid body of water. TSM in Lake Taihu was obviously higher than that of open sea waters (Binding et al., 2008) and slightly turbid estuaries (Vantrepotte, Loisel, Dessailly, & Mériaux, 2012), though the composition of TSM may differ between Lake Taihu and open sea water. The TSM in Lake Taihu is dominated by inorganic suspended matter (Qin et al., 2007), whereas in open sea, the primary TSM component is phytoplankton particles (Brown, Huot, Werdell, Gentili, & Claustre, 2008). These differences would result in the apparent difference in optical properties between open sea and inland turbid waters, consequently leading to the conclusion that the models developed for estimating TSM in open sea water are not suitable for turbid inland waters. In turbid inland and coastal waters, the TSM, photosynthetic pigments, and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) are responsible for the inherent optical properties of the water, such as total absorption and scattering (Babin, Morel, Fournier-Sicre, Fell, & Stramski, 2003; Babin, Stramski, et al., 2003; Zhang et al., 2007). For instance, TSM contributes to the total absorption coefficient at 550 nm in the waters, from a minimum of less than 27% in Lake Dianchi (China) to a maximum of approximately 79% in Lake Taihu, where phytoplankton is prevalent and where TSM originates from wind-induced bottom resuspension (Shi, Li, et al., 2013). Previous studies of inland and coastal turbid waters have shown that TSM has noticeable impacts on water transparency, Kd(PAR), euphotic depth, and remote sensing reflectance that are directly related to the inherent optical properties of water in inland turbid waters (Wang, Sun, Li, Le, & Huang, 2010; Zhang et al., 2007). For example, the Kd(PAR) for the Florida Bay, USA (a shallow inner shelf lagoon) was more closely related to the TSM than to the concentration of Chla (Phlips, Lynch, & Badylak, 1995). The significantly correlated relationships between TSM and SDD and between TSM and Kd(PAR), which was derived from a large number of field measurements taking in Lake Taihu, confirmed that TSM plays a key role in Kd(PAR) and SDD variations in this body of water (Fig. 12). Understanding the relationships between TSM and the optical parameters can facilitate the development of models for estimating these optical parameters from remote sensing data. After determining the role of TSM in the water optical properties, the corresponding appropriate models for estimating related optical parameters such as Kd(PAR) and SDD can be developed using the TSM model. Fig. 12. Relationships between TSM and Kd(PAR) (a) and between TSM and SDD (b). 4.2. Factors affecting the spatial and temporal changes of TSM We have shown that TSM in Lake Taihu has obvious spatial and temporal variations that can be explained by a few environmental factors and meteorological conditions. With a very large dynamic ratio (the square root of the surface area divided by the average water depth) of 25.6 km/m (Shi et al., 2014), TSM in Lake Taihu is greatly determined by wind-induced sediment resuspension. The spatial distribution pattern of TSM in Lake Taihu is affected by several factors that could significantly affect the impact of the wind in this lake, such as the lake topography and SAV (Zhang, Shi, et al., 2014). In addition, sediment deposited by the major input river is another important factor affecting the spatial distribution pattern of TSM in Lake Taihu. To investigate the effect of wind-driven sediment resuspension on the spatial distribution of TSM in Lake Taihu, we calculated the distance between each pixel and the lake shore in four directions (N, E, S, and W) and then performed a correlated analysis between the MODIS derived TSM and the distance. The result (Fig. 13) showed the existence of a significant positive linear relationship between the TSM and the sum of the distance to the north and to the east shore, meaning that the TSM in the western and southern parts of Lake Taihu (corresponding to the Open area) is higher than the TSM in the north and east parts of the lake. This result is in agreement with our findings that higher TSM was found in the Open area compared to the other regions of Lake Taihu. The dominant wind directions in Lake Taihu were found to be NNW and ESE, resulting in longer wind fetches for north and west parts of Lake Taihu than for other parts. Longer wind fetches result in stronger wind forces and thus more sediment resuspension in the north and west parts of Lake Taihu. In the littoral zones and lake bays, such as Zhushan Bay and Meiliang Bay, the wind fetches were shorter than in the Open area, decreasing the power of wind waves and therefore causing the lower TSM in these areas relative to the Open area. Therefore, wind-driven sediment resuspension expressing using disturbance index could largely explain the spatial variations in the TSM in 54 K. Shi et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 164 (2015) 43–56 Fig. 13. Relationship of TSM to the distance sum between each pixel to the north and to the east shore. Lake Taihu. The findings are in agreement with our previous study (Zhang, Shi, et al., 2014). Several studies have suggested that SAV could affect the TSM spatial distribution in Lake Taihu, with most of the SAV being distributed in Gonghu Bay, Xukou Bay, and East Lake Taihu (Liu et al., 2013; Qin et al., 2007; Zhang, Shi, et al., 2014). As shown in Fig. 12(b), the TSM (b 40 mg/L) in Gonghu Bay, Xukou Bay, and East Lake Taihu was much lower than that in the Open area (N60 mg/L). The SAV has the functions of water filtration, water purification, wind-induced wave abatement, and restraining sediment resuspension (Zhang, Shi, et al., 2014), and therefore would cause the low TSM in the waters with large amounts of SAV. Gonghu Bay, Xukou Bay, and East Lake Taihu are three typical macrophyte-dominated water regions in Lake Taihu, characterized by abundant submerged vegetation communities and thus have reasonably lower TSM than the Open area. Extremely high TSM was found in the southern part of the Open area, which could be explained in part by sediment brought by the Tiaoxi River (Fig. 12(b)). The Tiaoxi River is the greatest inflowing river, and its outlet mouth into Lake Taihu is near the southern part of the Open area. In a single year, the inflowing discharge from the Tiaoxi River can reach 2.7 billion m3, contributing approximately 60% of the total inputs from inflowing rivers into Lake Taihu (Liu et al., 2011). This indicates that a large amount of materials may be brought into the southern part of the Open area in Lake Taihu via the Tiaoxi River, which would significantly increase the TSM in this area (Fig. 12(b)). The impacts of inflowing discharge from the Xiaoxi River on the TSM in Lake Taihu were particularly obvious after strong rainfall events occurred in this area. For example, Fig. 14 demonstrates the TSM spatial distribution in Lake Taihu on October 10, 2013, showing that an extremely high amount of TSM (128 mg/L) was found in the southern part of the Open area, which was highly associated to one strong rainfall event occurring on October 8, 2013. This strong rainfall event could markedly increase the runoff discharge from the Tiaoxi River and thus lead to the extremely high TSM in the southern part of the Open area. It should be noted that the input of sediments from the Tiaoxi River seem to influence the TSM only in the southern part of the Open area, but has a minimal or negligible impact in the other regions of Lake Taihu. Clearly, lake topography, SAV, and inflowing rivers are the three most important factors determining the TSM spatial variations in Lake Taihu, though the impacts of lake topography and SAV on the spatial distribution of TSM arise through manipulating wind force distributions by these two factors. Of course, other factors such as physical properties and the composition of bottom sediment may also affect the TSM spatial distribution in Lake Taihu. However, these factors were not discussed in this study due to a lack of studies regarding the physical properties and composition of the bottom sediment in Lake Taihu. These will be further investigated in a future study. Fig. 14. MODIS-Aqua derived TSM spatial distribution in Lake Taihu on October 10, 2013 after a strong rainfall event occurring in this area. Many previous studies have suggested that winds are the most important factor affecting the temporal variations of TSM through sediment resuspension in large and shallow lakes and estuaries (Chen et al., 2007; Feng et al., 2014). In Tampa Bay (USA), the stronger wind speed resulted in higher TSM resuspension, leading to higher turbidity in the dry season and especially during March–April (Chen et al., 2007). The significant seasonal fluctuations in the TSM of Lake Taihu can also be attributed to seasonal variations of wind force or winddriven sediment resuspension (Zhang, Shi, et al., 2014). The strongest and weakest wind forces in Lake Taihu were found in the spring and autumn seasons, respectively (Shi et al., 2014). Stronger winds led to more sediment resuspension in the spring season, which would lead to a higher TSM in the spring than in the other seasons. The MODIS-Aqua derived TSM images showed that Lake Taihu experienced significant interannual variations in TSM. The observed inter-annual variations in the TSM of Lake Taihu are consistent with changes in wind force (Fig. 15), and a lower TSM coincided with lower wind speeds. The TSM in Lake Taihu from 2006–2008 was relatively lower than in other years, which could be explained by the slightly lower mean wind speed during this period compared to other years (Fig. 15). 4.3. Implications for Lake Taihu water quality monitoring and ecosystem restoration Regrettably, in the past, the significantly major challenge in satellite remote sensing of water quality of Lake Taihu, a large and shallow turbid Lake, was the lack of a reliable model to relate the satellite signal to the water quality parameters. The atmospheric correction method used in SeaDAS is not suitable for turbid inland waters as the water-leaving reflectance in the near-infrared bands (MODIS-Aqua 748 nm and 869 nm bands) is significantly more than zero (Li et al., 2012). An iterative atmospheric correction method based on the assumption of black water in SWIR at 1240 nm, 1640 nm, and 2130 nm developed by Wang et al. (2011) could work for this lake. This method uses a large amount of black strips that appear in the MODIS 1640 nm band, meaning that it is impossible to obtain TSM data in the black strips of the daily images. Our results indicated that the atmospheric correction method based on land performed well for the MODIS-Aqua data acquired from this turbid lake, especially in the MODIS-Aqua 645 nm band that has been widely used to measure the TSM from turbid inland and coastal waters (Feng et al., 2014; Miller & McKee, 2004; Petus et al., 2014). K. Shi et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 164 (2015) 43–56 55 Fig. 15. Monthly mean MODIS-Aqua derived TSM and wind speeds measured at Dongshan meteorological station from 2003–2013. For the first time, marked temporal and spatial variations in the TSM of Lake Taihu and their driving factors were clearly revealed and qualified via the rigorous analysis of an 11-year MODIS-Aqua time series used in this study. It is difficult to characterize these TSM variations using traditional ship-based field surveys due to the size and complex water environments of Lake Taihu. Overall, the success of this effort can be attributed to three factors: (I) the frequent and synoptic available coverage of the MODIS-Aqua images at 250 m spatial resolution for Lake Taihu; (II) a valid atmospheric correction that led to the validated TSM estimation model for a large, dynamic TSM range; and (III) the sufficient number of in situ measurements that allowed for the successful development of the TSM estimation. Our study clearly suggested that the temporal and spatial variations in TSM were controlled by one external factor (discharge sediment from inflowing rivers), and two internal factors (lake topography and SAV) that are related to winds or wind-induced sediment resuspension. Thus, to fully understand the variations in TSM, both the sediment load from inflowing river runoff and wind-driven resuspension events need to be considered in developing an optimal management plan for Lake Taihu. Understanding the impacts of river runoff on TSM in Lake Taihu has an important significance for the assessment of the role of external pollution sources brought by river inflow into Lake Taihu, because inflowing rivers can introduce a large amount of sediment containing high amounts of nutrients and other pollutants into Lake Taihu. On the other hand, SAV could improve the water quality by providing nutrient uptake and decreasing the TSM. Thus, exploring the relationship between TSM and SAV distributions is very important for ecosystem restoration efforts in Lake Taihu that rely on an aquatic vegetation planting method. The long-term TSM monitoring provided in this study will allow us to acquire enough data to study this relationship. The findings and the approach in this study demonstrated significant implications for the long-term monitoring of TSM in Lake Taihu. Not only can these results help management decision-making, they can be used for assessing management effectiveness. This is particularly important in a changing climate, as it is usually difficult to investigate the causal factors leading to environmental changes without continuous and long-term assessment. Therefore, we recommend that future Lake Taihu monitoring plans include satellite water color remote sensing to aid the interpretation of spatial and temporal patterns of some important water quality parameters, such as SDD and Chla. 5. Summary and conclusions This study addressed two technical challenges in documenting and understanding the long-term TSM distribution variations in Lake Taihu, from 2003 to 2013. The technical challenges are that (a) there isn't a good atmospheric correction for inland waters and (b) there isn't a good empirical model for TSM in Lake Taihu. The goal of this study was to address these issues, which was achieved by (I) the application of an atmospheric correction to the MODIS-Aqua medium- resolution data and (II) the construction of a TSM estimation model for deriving the temporal and spatial distribution patterns of TSM. A customized MODIS-Aqua 645 nm band based model was firstly developed and validated to retrieve the concentration of TSM in Lake Taihu. The model was then implemented to derive the spatial and temporal TSM distribution patterns in Lake Taihu and to quantify their daily, seasonal and inter-annual variations from 2003 to 2013. First, marked temporal and spatial variations were found in this study. The significant seasonal variability between the summer and autumn seasons (lower TSM) and the spring and winter seasons (higher TSM) could be attributed to changes in the wind speeds between the different seasons. Lake Taihu also experiences large inter-annual variations that are primarily caused by the changes in wind force over the region. In particular, the TSM in Lake Taihu from 2006–2008 was relatively lower than in the other years, which could be explained by the slightly lower mean wind speed during these years compared to the other years. Spatially, TSM in the Open area, especially in the southern part of this region, was consistently higher than in other sub-regions of Lake Taihu. Lake topographic conditions, SAV, and runoff discharge from the Tiaoxi River contributed to the spatial variations in TSM. The experience learned from this study could be used in the next generation of satellite data, such as the Sentinel-3 OLCI (Ocean Land Color Imager) data, to derive TSM spatial and temporal distributions in Lake Taihu. The characteristics of the upcoming Sentinel-3 OLCI are similar to those of MERIS (e.g., spatial full resolution 300 m), with numerous improvements (21 bands, high SNR, and shorter revisit time). The Sentinel-3 OLCI bands are optimized to measure water color over the open ocean, coastal zones, and inland waters. Up to eleven bands (central wavelength N 700 nm) are appropriate for developing TSM estimation models, which hopefully demonstrate new potentials and challenges for assessing TSM variations in Lake Taihu and other turbid inland waters. Acknowledgments This study was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41325001, 41301376 and 41271355), the Key Program Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. NIGLAS2012135003), and the Provincial Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu in China (Nos. BK2012050 and BK20141515). 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