PV Retail Sales Growth Slowed Down to 6.2% in April
快讯：汽车行业
Harry Chen 陈欢瑜
+86 755 23976683
chenhuanyu@gtjas.com
8 May 2015
PV Retail Sales Growth Slowed Down to 6.2% in April
4月份乘用车零售增长放缓到6.2%
China passenger vehicle (“PV”) sales growth slowed down to 6.2%. According to the China Passenger Cars
Association (“CPCA”),broad-sense PV retail sales were1.610 million units, up 6.2% YoY but down9.7% MoM in April of
2015. Sales of MPVs and SUVs increased 19.6% YoY and 56.3% YoY, respectively, while that of sedans and
cross-overs decreased 6.6% YoY and 14.7% YoY, respectively. Excluding cross-overs, the sales of narrow-sense PVs
increased 8.6% YoY but dropped 9.2% MoM. Broad-sense PV retail sales increased 12.3% YoY in the first 4 months of
2015.
April retail sales were affected by share market and May sales are expected to remain slow. PV retail sales
slowed down in April, worse than our forecasts. The expectation of bull-market in China has changed the asset
allocation of the family, which postponed the demand of buying PVs. Even though China stock market was under
correction, the expectation of bull-market will not change which continued to depress vehicle sales. We expect PV sales
to increase 5% YoY in April.
Inventory exceeded safety level and discount value continued to increase rapidly in April. Inventory ratio of car
GTJA Research 国泰君安研究
Flash Note: Automobile Sector
dealers increased 0.1 ppt MoM to 1.6, according to WAYS Consulting, which suggested that the inventory level has
already exceeded the upper band of safety level. According to I.S. Engine Consulting Ltd, car dealers’ discount rate
increased 0.1 ppt MoM and 1.4 ppt YoY to 7.7%. Discount value continued to remain high and increased 20.6% YoY
due to greater discount offered by JVs automakers since their sales were lower than expected in the first couple of
Sector View: Short term downside risk is expected to increase. We expect auto stocks to face greater downside risk
during off peak season. Investor should consider buying auto stocks in July.
4 月份的乘用车零售销售同比增长放缓到 6.2％。根据中国乘联会的统计显示，2015 年 4 月份广义乘用车的零售销售量为 161.0 万辆，
同比增长 6.2%，环比下滑 9.7%。其中 MPV 和 SUV 销售同比增长 19.6%和 56.3%，而轿车和交叉型乘用车销售同比下降 6.6%和 21.1%。
除了微客以外的狭义乘用车销售同比增长 8.6%，环比下滑 9.2%。前 4 个月广义乘用车零售销售同比增长 12.3%。
4 月份零售受股市影响，预计 5 月份销售维持较低速增长。4 月份乘用车零售销售增幅放缓，差于我们预期，主要是因为牛市的预期改变
Automobile Sector 汽车行业
months.
了家庭的资产配置，导致购车需求被押后。尽管国内股市最近在调整，但是大家仍对未来牛市抱有期望，因此购车需求仍受到压抑。预
计 5 月份的乘用车销售同比增长 5%。
4 月库存水平过高，折扣额持续大幅提高。根据威尔森的数据显示，4 月份经销商库存系数为 1.6，环比增加 0.1 个点，超过了安全警戒
线的上限，库存水平已经过高。根据安路勤的数据显示，4 月的零售端的折扣率为 7.7%，环比增加 0.1 个百分点，同比提高 1.4 个百分
点。优惠额同比大幅提高 20.6%，主要是因为前几个月合资企业的销售低于预期，期望加大优惠额度来刺激需求。
行业看法：短期股价下行风险加大。我们预计汽车股在淡季期间将有更大下行的风险，投资者可以考虑 7 月份再介入这个行业。
Flash Note
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Monthly Retail
Sales
913,102
161,687
438,804
1,513,593
96,445
1,610,038
YoY (%) of
Retail Sales
-6.6%
19.6%
56.3%
8.6%
-21.1%
6.2%
MoM (%) of
Retail Sales
-9.3%
-18.9%
-5.0%
-9.2%
-15.8%
-9.7%
2015 YTD
YoY Growth
1.4%
21.2%
63.1%
15.4%
-22.2%
12.3%
8 May 2015
Table-1: PV Production, Wholesale and Retail-sale
Monthly
Monthly
Production
Wholesales
Sedan
981,824
942,425
MPV
184,606
165,427
SUV
482,448
496,071
PV (narrow sense)
1,648,878
1,603,923
Cross-over
103,343
97,794
PV (broad sense)
1,752,221
1,701,717
Source: CPCA, Guotai Junan International.
Figure-2: Monthly sales growth of Sedan, MPV, SUV and
Sense)
Cross-over
Source:CPCA, Guotai Junan International.
Source: CPCA, Guotai Junan International.
Figure-3: Discount Rate Of Dealers
Figure-4: Inventory Ratio of Dealers
Source: I.S. Engine, Guotai Junan International.
Source: WAYS Consulting, Guotai Junan International.
Flash Note
Automobile Sector 汽车行业
Figure-1:Monthly Retail Sales and Growth of PV (Broad
Seethe last page for disclaimer
Page 2 of 3
Company Rating Definition
The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
Rating
Definition
Buy
Relative Performance>15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.
Relative Performance is 5% to 15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.
Accumulate
Neutral
Relative Performance is -5% to 5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral.
Reduce
Relative Performance is -5% to -15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sell
Relative Performance <-15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
8 May 2015
Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months
Sector Rating Definition
The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months
Rating
Outperform
Definition
Relative Performance >5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable.
Neutral
Relative Performance is -5% to 5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral.
Underperform
Relative Performance<-5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
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Automobile Sector 汽车行业
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