1. No category

The Week Ahead
April 6-10, 2015
CIBC World Markets Inc.
CIBC
World
Markets
•
Population (billions)
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
Forecast
0.8
China
0.6
India
0.4
PO Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada
M5J 2S8
Corp
300
Madison
Avenue,
New
York,
NY
10017
•
•
•
Bloomberg @ CIBC
(212)
856-4000,
•
2050
http://research.cibcwm.
com/res/Eco/EcoResearch.
html
That’s going to be critical if Modi is to
achieve another of his objectives, which is
to follow China’s example by becoming a
major manufacturing hub. India’s earlier
economic wins were in services, where ports,
Follow the People: India to Surpass China
2040
Modi came to office with a reformist
agenda. His government’s first budget
wasn’t quite a shock and awe document,
but took steps towards tax reform (including
a GST), pledged to address the underground
“black money” economy, and started on the
road to developing the infrastructure needed
in a modern economy. Still, there’s much to
be done in terms of improving the country’s
networks for electric power and sanitation,
removing land access impediments to such
projects, and other major reforms.
2030
“...the economic
opportunity that
India could represent
for Canada deserves
a longer look.”
Our Indo-Canadian business community
has useful links to its home country, but the
trade data suggest that we have yet to really
capitalize on them. Let’s hope that as Mr.
Modi comes to town, we do more than just
create political photo ops, and use this as an
opportunity to get moving on Canada-India
trade. We’ll need more than just a cheaper
loonie to shift growth from housing and
debt-financed consumption to trade and
capital spending.
2020
For those with more foresight, the economic
opportunity that India could represent for
Canada deserves a longer look. In terms
of emerging markets, it’s been all about
China, which is not only by far the largest
such economy, but the only one that has
really seen much in the way of growth as a
destination for Canadian exports. But India
actually outgrew China in the fourth quarter,
has been easing interest rates, and looking
ahead, its bulging population suggests that
India could have more promise (Chart).
Nick Exarhos
(416) 956-6527
nick.exarhos@cibc.ca
For Canadian business, even though India
is now saying it wants to be a net exporter
of high-value-added goods down the road,
the materials, engineering and even financial
services needed for an infrastructure take-off
should not be overlooked. Canada recently
renewed negotiations towards a “CanadaIndia Comprehensive Economic Partnership
Agreement”. But these talks have dragged
on since 2010, with little to show for them.
2010
Andrew Grantham
(416) 956-3219
andrew.grantham@cibc.ca
roads, and rails aren’t major issues. A “Make
in India” plan will stumble if a growing
workforce isn’t accompanied by reliable
electricity and transportation networks.
2000
Benjamin Tal
(416) 956-3698
benjamin.tal@cibc.ca
In the coming days, India will have its 15
minutes of fame in Canada’s business press.
Not because it’s suddenly a key player in
Canada’s trade, as only 0.7% of our exports
are destined there, but because Prime
Minister Modi is scheduled for an official visit
on April 14-16, after which the subcontinent
will no doubt move to the occasional back
page reference.
1990
Avery Shenfeld
(416) 594-7356
avery.shenfeld@cibc.ca
by Avery Shenfeld
1980
ECONOMICS
Mr Modi Comes to Town
(416) 594-7000
(800)
999-6726
Friday
April 10
Thursday
April 9
Wednesday
April 8
Tuesday
April 7
Monday
April 6
`
(Mar) (L)
CIBC
(Mar) (M)
(Mar) (H)
(Mar) (H)
NOVA SCOTIA BUDGET
8:15 AM
HOUSING STARTS SAAR
8:30 AM
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
EMPLOYMENT CHANGE
6.8%
5.0K
188K
2.7%
H, M, L = High, Medium or Low Significance
(Feb) (M)
(Feb) (L)
8:30 AM
BUILDING PERMITS M/M
NEW HOUSING PRICES M/M
AUCTION: 5-YR CANADAS $3.3B
AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $5.9B, 6-M BILLS $2.3B, 1-YR BILLS $2.3B
CASH MANAGEMENT BUYBACK (Jun'15 - Jun'16) - $1.0B
10:30 AM
BoC Business Outlook and Senior Loan Officer Surveys
10:00 AM
IVEY PMI
CANADA
0.1%
6.8%
-1.0K
156K
-12.9%
-0.1%
49.7
Prior
(Mar)
10:00 AM
ISM - NON-MANUFACTURING
(Feb)
(Apr 3)
2:00 PM
TREASURY BUDGET
8:30 AM
IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M
10:00 AM
WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M
8:30 AM
CONTINUING CLAIMS
INITIAL CLAIMS
(Mar)
(Mar)
(Feb)
(Mar 28)
(Apr4)
Speaker: 9:30 AM William C. Dudley (New York, Vice Chairman)
AUCTION: 30-YR TREASURIES $13B (prev)
2:00 PM
Minutes of Mar 17-18th FOMC Meeting
7:00 AM
MBA-APPLICATIONS
Speaker: 8:50 AM Narayana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis)
AUCTION: 10-YR TREASURIES $21B (prev)
3:00 PM
CONSUMER CREDIT
Speaker: 8:30 AM William C. Dudley (New York, Vice Chairman)
AUCTION: 4-WEEK BILLS $40B (prev)
AUCTION: 3-YR TREASURIES $24B (prev)
(Mar)
(Mar)
9:45 AM
MARKIT US COMPOSITE PMI Final
MARKIT US SERVICES PMI Final
AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $24B, 6-M BILLS $24B
UNITED STATES
(L)
(L)
(L)
(L)
(H)
(L)
(L)
(M)
(L)
(L)
Speaker: 12:20 PM Narayana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis)
Speaker: 8:30 AM Jeff Lacker (Richmond)
SAAR = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Consensus Source: Bloomberg
Consensus
CIBC
-$43.0B
-0.5%
0.1%
2405K
286K
$13.5B
56.8
Consensus
-$192.3B
0.4%
0.2%
2325K
268K
4.6%
$11.6B
56.9
58.5
58.6
Prior
Week Ahead Calendar And Forecast
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—April 6-10, 2015
Week Ahead’s Market Call
by Nick Exarhos and Andrew Grantham
In Canada, the next issue of the Bank of Canada’s business outlook survey is due out
on Monday, its release having gained importance since the official survey of business
investment intentions has been delayed until the summer. The week ends with
Canadian employment figures for March, where we expect a lacklustre 5K reading
to keep the unemployment rate steady at 6.8%. That stability will mask what could
be more concentrated provincial weakness out west, where we have already seen a
deterioration in employment. Housing starts for March, also due on Friday, should see
a bounce back to 188K after a weather-related dip in February.
In the US, markets will have plenty of time to digest the non-farm payrolls release as
they re-open after Easter, with nothing in terms of major data releases on the menu
for next week. The minutes from the last FOMC meeting will give further clues as to
what hurdles the US economy still has to negotiate before policymakers begin a liftoff on rate hikes.
3
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—April 6-10, 2015
Week Ahead’s Key Canadian Number:
Labour Force Survey—March
100
(Friday, 8:30 a.m.)
Nick Exarhos (416) 956-5427
Employment
Unemployment Rate
CIBC MktPrior
Canadian Employment
000s
8.0
50
7.5
0
7.0
-50
6.5
-100
Feb-13
5.0K na-1K
6.8%
na
6.8%
%
Aug-13
Feb-14
Month/Month Chg (L)
Aug-14
6.0
Feb-15
Jobless Rate (R)
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
the unemployment rate have already started to slip.
Developments out west will be an important detail in the
next report that we’ll keep an eye on.
Last month’s Labour Force Survey didn’t provide many
fireworks, with the 1K drop not far from our expectations
for a humdrum 5K retrenchment. We favour somewhat
of a repeat performance in March. Despite the softening
economic backdrop, employment likely increased by 5K, a
lacklustre reading, but perhaps just good enough to leave
the unemployment rate steady at 6.8%.
F o re c a s t I m p l i c a t i o n s — T h o u g h t h e n a t i o n a l
unemployment rate won’t see a dramatic increase, a
widening in the output gap would suggest that we head
near, or slightly above, 7% on the unemployment rate
some time this year.
We’re not likely to be so lucky further out in the year, as
budget cutbacks are more fully felt in private payrolls.
But we remain mindful that much of the weakness in
the labour market will be a regional story, not a national
one. We’ve already seen cracks in employment in Alberta
and Saskatchewan, where top of the class grades on
Market Impact—We don’t have the consensus at the
time of writing, but given other recent news, we doubt
that markets will be shocked by a lacklustre hiring figure.
Other Canadian Releases:
Housing Starts—March
(Friday, 8:15 a.m.)
Colder-than-normal weather in February had housing
starts slip beneath the level that residential building
intentions would have suggested. But for March, an
unused backlog of permits should be a reason for starts
to snap back to 188K, not far from the pace which is likely
to persist for the year as a whole.
Lower interest rates and demographic forces leave us
sanguine on housing prospects in Canada for 2015, but
since the trend is sideways, the economy won’t be able to
rely much on residential investment as a growth catalyst.
For building permits data due out on Thursday, we’re
calling for a 2.7% increase in February, after a sizeable
drop the prior month.
4
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—April 6-10, 2015
There are no US Key Numbers this week.
5
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—April 6-10, 2015
Equity Insights
Nick Exarhos
S&P Earnings Story Still Intact Ex-Energy
Q1 Expected EPS Growth Goes Negative (L),
But Forecasted Trend in Earnings Ex-Energy Still Higher (R)
Jan-15
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Blended Forward 12-mo
Earnings Expectations
120
Index 2013=100
118
116
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
S&P 500
100
Ex-Energy
98
Jan-13
22-Mar
12-Mar
20-Feb
02-Mar
31-Jan
10-Feb
01-Jan
21-Jan
15Q1 Estimated
YoY EPS Growth (%)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
11-Jan
As the first quarter has come to a close, the juggernaut
that was to be the US economy hasn’t been unscathed
from continued softness abroad and a surging exchange
rate which has further hamstrung American exports.
A stronger greenback has also dampened repatriated
foreign earnings for members of the S&P, one reason
why forecasts on quarterly earnings have come down
dramatically. However, we aren’t yet ready to paint
everything black. Though the S&P 500 isn’t as oily as
the TSX, the collapse in crude has also played a role in
weighing down expected earnings stateside. Stripping out
the energy sector, the earnings trend for US-listed firms
appears to have weathered the Q1 storm better than
some of the headlines would have suggested.
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
US Consumers Saving, For Now
US Savings Rate Higher,
But Now Back In Line With Longer-Term Average
There are also reasons to believe that as spring rolls
around, economic activity may see a quicker-thanexpected thaw. Though the consumer has disappointed,
with households pocketing savings at the pumps instead
of spending them at the mall, we may be poised to see
better days ahead for retailing. The savings rate has
zoomed higher recently, but it now appears to be in line
with levels that prevailed before the 2013 changes in
the tax code which had whipsawed saving and spending
decisions. With new jobs steadily accumulating, and
more meaningful wage gains likely to soon follow, the
consumer could be the key in making up for a slow start
in 2015.
Savings Rate (% of Disposable Income)
11
10
Tax Changes
9
8
7
6
5
Avg '10 to mid-'12
4
Jan-15
Sep-14
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
3
Source: BEA, CIBC
TSX vs S&P Dividend Payouts
Though dividend cuts have dominated recently as the
fall in oil has depleted energy company revenues, there
are still some sectors in the Toronto Composite that are
better positioned to deliver cashflows to investors than
their counterparts stateside. Comparing dividend payout
ratios, amounts paid out of earnings from Canada’s
telecoms trail what’s being shared with holders in the
US, ditto for consumer staples. But dividend hikes from
Canadian consumer names, along with companies from
other TSX sectors, could be an important selling point
for investors as they insulate their portfolios from pain in
the energy sector. That will be increasingly important as
maintaining current distributions from energy companies
will be reliant on an eventual rebound in oil prices.
TSX and S&P 500 Payout Ratios By Sector
Dividend Payout Ratio (% Earnings)
Utilities
Energy
Financials
Industrials
TSX
S&P 500
Infotech
Cons Staples
Telecoms
Cons Disc
0
6
50
100
150
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—April 6-10, 2015
Currency Currents
Andrew Grantham
Canadian Trade—Diversity Deteriorates
Trade Not Diversifying Away From US (L),
as Exports to Key EM’s Deteriorate (R)
A weaker C$ should be supporting Canadian exports
not just to the US but also more broadly. Unfortunately,
over the past year that doesn’t appear to have been the
case. The US, which accounts for around three-quarters
of Canadian exports in any given month, has accounted
for a similar proportion of the growth over the past 12
months as well. We highlighted a while ago that the only
emerging market that was becoming more important for
Canada’s trade was China—and it appears that a slowing
there has hurt exports. Unfortunately, there hasn’t been
much improvement in trade to other emerging markets
to compensate. That’s one chip on the side of looking for
a bit more downside for the loonie while oil is still soft.
Share of US in
Cdn Exports
80%
Change in Past Yr (Mn)
800
75%
400
70%
0
-400
65%
-800
-1200
Prop. Chg Past
Year
Prop. of Exports
60%
Brazil
China
HK
India
Indonesia
Mexico
S. Korea
Taiwan
-1600
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
QE Shifts Euro Away From Economic Reality
Euro-US$ Diverges From Economic Surprise Indexes
1.6
100
1.5
50
1.4
0
1.3
Mar-15
Mar-13
Mar-12
Sep-14
1
Mar-14
-150
Sep-13
1.1
Sep-12
1.2
Sep-11
-50
-100
EZ Surprise Index Minus US Surprise Index (L)
EURUSD (R)
Source: Bloomberg, Citi, CIBC
USDJPY at Levels Similar to 2004-07 (L),
But Export Growth Nowhere Near That Period (R)
Not Much to Show For Yen Weakness
130
USDJPY
8
120
4
100
90
2
80
0
70
-2
Feb-15
Jul-13
Dec-11
Oct-08
May-10
Mar-07
Aug-05
60
7
Y/Y Growth Real
Exports (%)
6
110
Jan-04
The yen has slumped by more than 35% over the past
three years or so against the US$, and depreciated
appreciably against other major currencies as well. Yet
so far there’s still little to show for it in terms of exports.
Admittedly, export volumes have stopped falling, as was
the case in the early part of the global recovery when the
yen was much stronger. However, a mere 0.5% rise for
2014 vs 2013, is a far cry from the 6% or so increases
that were being seen between 2004-07 when the yen
was at similar levels. Part of that is weakness in global
demand growth relative to that period, but there may still
be a case for the yen to depreciate further to make Japan
more competitive in the global landscape as well.
150
Mar-11
Just looking at the change in the euro over the past 3-6
months and you’d have thought that the economy was
back in recession. It’s true, the situation is still pretty
bleak in many countries. But the trend is improving, and
generally beating downbeat expectations. As a result, the
EURUSD exchange rate and relative difference between
the surprise indexes in the two countries has diverged
widely. That doesn’t mean that the euro will strengthen
rapidly from here, as part of the reason for previous
economic disappointments was that the euro was
overvalued at a 1.30-1.40 rate. But the encouraging trend
within the economy should limit downside pressure in the
near term and position us for a modest strengthening in
the euro towards year-end.
-4
Avg '04- Avg '1107
13
2014
Source: Bloomberg, SBJ, CIBC
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—April 6-10, 2015
CANADIAN RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
March/April 2015
MONDAY
TUESDAY
30
INDUSTRIAL PRICES
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
DEC -1.6-0.4
JAN -0.3-2.1
FEB
1.8-1.6
WEDNESDAY
31
THURSDAY
FRIDAY
2
1
GDP BY INDUSTRY
8:30 AM
(2002$)
GDPIND.PROD.
MM
NOV-0.2 -0.8
DEC0.3 0.4
JAN-0.1 0.4
MERCHANDISE TRADE
8:30 AM
$MN
12 MO.
BALANCE
DEC -9864,553
JAN -1,4753,016
FEB
-9841,394
3
GOOD FRIDAY
(HOLIDAY)
(Markets Closed)
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT,
EARNINGS & HOURS
8:30 AM
7
6
INTERNATIONAL
RESERVES
8:15 AM
$BN
$BN
CHANGELEVEL
JAN 0.13774.8
FEB-0.06974.8
MAR
9
8
NEW HOUSING PRICE
INDEX
8:30 AM
BUILDING PERMITS ($)
8:30 AM M
M
(RES)(NON-RES)
DEC
1.515.0
JAN
-7.0-22.8
FEB
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
SURVEY
8:30 AM
Nova Scotia
Provincial Budget
IVEY PURCHASING
MANAGERS’ INDEX
10:00 AM
13
14
16
15
SURVEY OF
MANUFACTURING
8:30 AM
SHIPMENTS
M
Y
DEC 1.65.0
JAN -1.72.9
FEB
Bank of Canada
Interest Rate Announcement
Bank of Canada
Monetary Policy Report
21
LABOUR
FORCE SURVEY
8:30 AM
AVG
EMPLOYUNEMP HRLY
(HSHOLD) RATEEARN
MY%Y
JAN0.20.7 6.62.1
FEB0.00.7 6.81.7
MAR
17
RETAIL TRADE
8:30 AM (Current$)
MY
DEC -1.84.0
JAN -1.71.2
FEB
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
JAN -0.21.0
FEB 0.91.0
MAR
INT’L TRANSACTIONS
IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET
8:30 AM
BONDS MONEY S
TOCKSTOT
MARKET
DEC-8.5 2.0 -7.0 -13.5
JAN
10.5
-5.81.05.7
FEB
BoC Governor Poloz and
Sr. Dep. Gov. Wilkins
attend press conference at
11:15 AM ET
20
10
HOUSING STARTS
8:15 AM
000’s (AR)
TOTAL SINGLES
JAN187 57
FEB156 55
MAR
22
23
24
30
1
WHOLESALE TRADE
8:30 AM
Canadian Federal Budget
27
28
29
INDUSTRIAL PRICES
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
JAN -0.3-2.1
FEB
1.8-1.6
MAR
GDP BY INDUSTRY
8:30 AM
(2002$)
GDPIND.PROD.
MM
DEC0.3 0.4
JAN-0.1 0.4
FEB
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT,
EARNINGS & HOURS
8:30 AM
WAGE SETTLEMENTS
10:00 AM (%)
PVT. PUB.TOT.
JAN 2.3 1.41.6
FEB 2.5 2.02.0
MAR
Manitoba
Provincial Budget
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets Inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical
data: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Human Resources Development Canada and the Bank of Canada.
8
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—April 6-10, 2015
U.S. RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
March/April 2015
MONDAY
TUESDAY
WEDNESDAY
31
30
THURSDAY
GOODS &
SERV. BALANCE (BOP) $B
8:30 AM GDS SERV TOT
DEC -65.0 19.4-45.6
JAN -62.5 19.9-42.7
FEB -55.5 19.7-35.4
S&P/CASE-SHILLER
HOUSE PRICE INDEX
9:00 AM
ISM MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM COMP.
PRICES
INDEXINDEX
CHICAGO PMI
9:45 AM
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
10:00 AM
2,5,7-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
JAN
FEB
MAR
53.535.0
52.935.0
51.539.0
LIGHT VEHICLES
SALES MIL (AR)
Y
JAN
16.5538.9
FEB
16.1655.4
MAR
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
FACTORY ORDERS
10:00 AM M(SA)
Y(NSA)
DEC -3.5-3.7
JAN -0.2-2.3
FEB
3
GOOD FRIDAY
(HOLIDAY)
(Stock Market Closed)
EMPLOY. SITUATION
8:30 AM
NON- CIVAVG
FARMUNEMP HRLY
PAYROLL RATE EARN
(000s)M
%
Y
JAN
2395.72.0
FEB
2955.51.6
MAR
3,10-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
7
6
2
1
ADP SURVEY
8:15 AM
PERS. INC & OUT.
10:00 AM SAVING
INCOMECONS RATE
M MAR
DEC0.3 -0.3 4.9
JAN0.4-0.2 5.5
FEB0.10.15.8
FRIDAY
9
8
10
ISM NON-MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM
CONSUMER CREDIT
3:00 PM
3-Yr NOTE AUCTION
FOMC Minutes
TREASURY BUDGET
2:00 PM
10-Yr NOTE AUCTION
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
13
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
14
RETAIL SALES
8:30 AM
M
Y
JAN -0.83.6
FEB -0.61.7
MAR
PPI (FINISHED GOODS)
8:30 AM M (SA)
Y (NSA)
JAN -2.1-3.1
FEB -0.1-3.4
MAR
30-Yr BOND AUCTION
16
15
CAPACITY UTIL/
IND. PROD.
9:15 AM LEV
M
Y
JAN 79.1-0.3 4.3
FEB 78.90.1 3.4
MAR
HOUSING
STARTS
8:30 AMMIL (AR)
M
JAN 1.065-2.0
FEB 0.897-15.8
MAR
Beige Book
NET CAPITAL INFLOWS TICS
4:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX
10:00 PM
3,10-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
20
30-Yr BOND SETTLEMENT
21
27
28
NEW HOME SALES
10:00 AM
8:30 AM (AR)
REAL IMPLICIT
GDPDEFLATOR
14:Q3(F)5.0
1.4
14:Q4(F)2.2
0.2
15:Q1(A)
ECI
8:30 AMWAGES &
TOTALSALARY BEN.
14:Q3
0.70.80.6
14:Q4
0.60.50.6
15:Q1
CHICAGO PMI
9:45 AM
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
10:00 AM
FOMC Rate Decision
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
LEADING INDICATOR
10:00 AM
24
DURABLE
GOODS ORDERS
8:30 AM
M
Y
JAN 2.04.7
FEB -1.40.6
MAR
30
29
GDP
S&P/CASE-SHILLER
HOUSE PRICE INDEX
9:00 AM
23
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (P)
9:55 AM
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
22
EXISTING HOME SALES
10:00 AM
17
CPI
8:30 AM M(SA)
Y (NSA)
JAN -1.10.0
FEB -1.00.4
MAR
PERS. INC & OUT.
10:00 AM SAVING
INCOMECONS RATE
M MAR
JAN0.4-0.2 5.5
FEB0.40.15.8
MAR
1
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (F)
9:55 AM
ISM MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM COMP.
PRICES
INDEXINDEX
FEB
MAR
APR
52.935.0
51.539.0
LIGHT VEHICLES
SALES MIL (AR)
Y
JAN
16.5538.9
FEB
16.1655.4
MAR
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical
data: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Federal Reserve Board.
9
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—April 6-10, 2015
This report is issued and approved for distribution by (a) in Canada, CIBC World Markets Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, the Toronto Stock Exchange, the TSX
Venture Exchange and a Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund, (b) in the United Kingdom, CIBC World Markets plc, which is regulated by the Financial Services Authority, and (c) in Australia, CIBC
Australia Limited, a member of the Australian Stock Exchange and regulated by the ASIC (collectively, “CIBC”) and (d) in the United States either by (i) CIBC World Markets Inc. for distribution only to U.S. Major
Institutional Investors (“MII”) (as such term is defined in SEC Rule 15a-6) or (ii) CIBC World Markets Corp., a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. U.S. MIIs receiving this report from CIBC World
Markets Inc. (the Canadian broker-dealer) are required to effect transactions (other than negotiating their terms) in securities discussed in the report through CIBC World Markets Corp. (the U.S. broker-dealer).
This report is provided, for informational purposes only, to institutional investor and retail clients of CIBC World Markets Inc. in Canada, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities
discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. This document and any of the products and information contained herein are not intended for the use of private investors
in the United Kingdom. Such investors will not be able to enter into agreements or purchase products mentioned herein from CIBC World Markets plc. The comments and views expressed in this document are
meant for the general interests of wholesale clients of CIBC Australia Limited.
This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of CIBC. Before making an investment decision on the basis of any information
contained in this report, the recipient should consider whether such information is appropriate given the recipient’s particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. CIBC suggests that, prior to
acting on any information contained herein, you contact one of our client advisers in your jurisdiction to discuss your particular circumstances. Since the levels and bases of taxation can change, any reference in
this report to the impact of taxation should not be construed as offering tax advice; as with any transaction having potential tax implications, clients should consult with their own tax advisors. Past performance
is not a guarantee of future results.
The information and any statistical data contained herein were obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that they are accurate or complete, and they should not be relied
upon as such. All estimates and opinions expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.
This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, Internet web sites. CIBC has not reviewed the linked Internet web site of any third party and takes no responsibility for the contents thereof. Each
such address or hyperlink is provided solely for the recipient’s convenience and information, and the content of linked third-party web sites is not in any way incorporated into this document. Recipients who
choose to access such third-party web sites or follow such hyperlinks do so at their own risk.
© 2015 CIBC World Markets Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized use, distribution, duplication or disclosure without the prior written permission of CIBC World Markets Inc. is prohibited by law and may result
in prosecution.
10