1. No category

The Week Ahead
June 8-12, 2015
Canadian Bonds: What Happened Last Time?
by Avery Shenfeld
Economics
Avery Shenfeld
(416) 594-7356
avery.shenfeld@cibc.ca
Benjamin Tal
(416) 956-3698
benjamin.tal@cibc.ca
Andrew Grantham
(416) 956-3219
andrew.grantham@cibc.ca
Royce Mendes
(416) 594-7354
royce.mendes@cibc.ca
Nick Exarhos
(416) 956-6527
nick.exarhos@cibc.ca
“Canadian 10-year
rates fell from mid2003 to Q2 2005
even as Treasury
yields headed
higher...”
http://research.
cibcwm.com/res/Eco/
EcoResearch.html
If past is prologue, our bearish stance on
Canadian long bonds might be a bit too
harsh, at least for the next few quarters.
Put Canadian and US 10-year rates on a
longer-term chart, and they look like twins.
If you had an advance peek at where longer
Treasuries were headed, you would almost
invariably get the call on Canadian rates
right. But there was one notable exception
to the rule, and although it was just over
a decade ago, it might be somewhat
instructive for what lies ahead.
The bursting of the tech bubble led the US
into recession in 2001, and monetary easing
saw the Fed still cutting the funds rate into
early 2003. In contrast, a smaller tech sector
meant that the hit to the Canadian economy
was much milder, and after easing policy
rates through 2001, the Bank of Canada
tightened ahead of the Fed in 2002 to early
2003, opening up a gap in short rates. If that
has a familiar ring to it, it’s because it’s an
exact parallel to Canada’s milder recession
in 2008, and the BoC’s decision to hike rates
while the Fed was still easing in 2010.
The next chapter also echoes across the
decade. Come 2003, disappointments in
Canadian growth had the BoC cutting rates
in 2003-04, shrinking the positive spread
to fed funds. Fed hikes in 2004 as the US
economy rebounded closed the gap in short
rates vs Canada by February 2005. With soft
oil prices being more of a dent to Canada’s
economy, we similarly expect the next year
and a half to see Fed hikes eliminate the gap
to overnight rates in Canada.
Divergent developments at the front end
were enough to see a rare departure from
the normal near-perfect linkage in the
direction of bond yields. Canadian 10-year
rates fell from mid-2003 to Q2 2005 even as
Treasury yields headed higher (Chart).
Will history repeat itself in the coming few
quarters if the Fed tightens while the BoC
stands pat? That’s less likely for two key
reasons. First, unlike what lies ahead, the
Fed wasn’t just nudging rates higher after
mid-2004, but hiking by about 3% in the
space of a year. And second, Canadian 10year rates started the historical example at
roughly 1% above comparable Treasuries,
rather than the -57 bp spread we’ve already
built in.
As a result, if Treasuries still face a sell-off
on better US growth and a Fed tightening
before year end, an outright rally will be
a much tougher row to hoe for Canadian
10-year bonds. Still, spreads could get much
more negative than they are already, perhaps
even more than the -75 bps we’ve projected.
At a minimum, it’s going to be safer to put
long duration positions on in Canada rather
than in the US dollar market if, as we expect,
US GDP figures come into better line with
the healthy American jobs figures we’re still
racking up.
7.0 %
Canada-US 10-Year Yields
6.5
6.0
5.5
divergence
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
Oct-99
Canada
Jun-01
Feb-03
US
Oct-04
Jun-06
CIBC World Markets Inc. • PO Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 • Bloomberg @ CIBC • (416) 594-7000
C I B C W o r l d M a r k e t s C o r p • 3 0 0 M a d i s o n A v e n u e , N e w Yo r k , N Y 1 0 0 1 7 • ( 2 1 2 ) 8 5 6 - 4 0 0 0 , ( 8 0 0 ) 9 9 9 - 6 7 2 6
Friday
June 12
Thursday
June 11
Wednesday
June 10
Tuesday
June 9
Monday
June 8
`
(Apr) (M)
8:30 AM
BUILDING PERMITS M/M
-5.0%
196K
CIBC
H, M, L = High, Medium or Low Significance
(H)
(M)
(M)
(M)
(M)
(L)
(H)
(H)
(H)
(L)
(L)
(L)
(L)
(L)
(L)
(L)
Consensus Source: Bloomberg
(Jun P)
10:00 AM
MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT
SAAR = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
(May)
(May)
(May)
(May)
(Apr)
10:00 AM
BUSINESS INVENTORIES M/M
8:30 AM
PPI M/M
PPI M/M (core)
PPI Y/Y
PPI Y/Y (core)
(May)
(May)
(May)
(May)
8:30 AM
RETAIL SALES M/M
RETAIL SALES (X-AUTOS) M/M
RETAIL SALES CONTROL GROUP M/M
IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M
(May 30)
(Jun 6)
(Apr)
10:00 AM
BUSINESS INVENTORIES M/M
8:30 AM
CONTINUING CLAIMS
INITIAL CLAIMS
(Jun 5)
(May)
2:00 PM
TREASURY BUDGET
7:00 AM
MBA-APPLICATIONS
83.6%
0.0%
(Apr)
10:00 AM
WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M
AUCTION: 4-WEEK BILLS $35B (prev)
AUCTION: 3-YR TREASURIES $24
AUCTION: 3-M BILLS $24B, 6-M BILLS $24B
UNITED STATES
8:30 AM
CAPACITY UTILIZATION
NEW HOUSING PRICES M/M
(Q1) (L)
(Apr) (L)
11.6%
183K
Prior
AUCTION: 10-YR TREASURIES $24B (prev)
187K
Consensus
AUCTION: 2-YR CANADAS $xxB
Speaker: 4:15 PM Carolyn Wilkins (Sr. Deputy Gov.)
CASH MANAGEMENT BUYBACK (Jun'16 - Sep'16) - $0.5B
(May) (M)
8:15 AM
HOUSING STARTS SAAR
CANADA
0.5%
0.2%
-1.1%
0.7%
1.5%
0.9%
0.6%
CIBC
91.2
0.4%
0.1%
-1.1%
0.7%
0.2%
1.1%
0.7%
0.5%
1.0%
0.2%
-$97.5B
0.2%
Consensus
90.7
-0.4%
-0.2%
-1.3%
0.8%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.3%
2196K
276K
0.1%
-7.6%
$156.7B
0.1%
Prior
Week Ahead Calendar And Forecast
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 8-12, 2015
Week Ahead’s Market Call
by Avery Shenfeld
In the US, we’re looking for a barnburner retail sales report for May, or the equivalent in a
revision to April, to give the demand side of the economy something more in line with the
booming jobs trend. Auto sales will help, but if Americans were buying big ticket durables
like vehicles, perhaps they were also unleashing some of their spending power elsewhere. The
rest of the week is light on market-moving news, although the Greek situation will continue
to play out.
In Canada, housing starts could nudge up to the higher end of their recent range, but
permits could head the other way, with the two results thereby cancelling out in terms of
their market implications. BoC Deputy Governor Wilkins will be the first Canadian central
banker to speak after the mixed news of weakness in Q1 GDP and April trade, but strength
in May hiring.
3
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 8-12, 2015
Week Ahead’s Key Canadian Number:
215
Housing Starts—May
Housing Starts
000s
(Monday, 8:15 a.m.)
190
Nick Exarhos (416) 956-6527
165
Housing Starts
Housing Starts
140
May-13
CIBC MktPrior
6mma
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-16F
196K 187K 183K
Source: Statistics Canada, CIBC
Forecast Implications—We are looking for a sideways
trend in housing starts for the rest of 2015 and into 2016.
Though residential investment won’t be a drag, don’t look
for it to be major growth catalyst in the quarters ahead.
Although other parts of the Canadian economy have
braved choppier waters, the housing market has been
well anchored. That’s partly been due to the stillaccommodative interest rate setting supporting appetites
for new and existing housing, the former evidenced in
the permit data. There, a flat trend has prevailed for the
past several years centred around an implied 190K or so
building pace.
Market Impact—The market doesn’t usually react
to housing starts and homebuilding isn’t at this point
contributing much to GDP growth.
After starts registered a slightly soft 183K in April, the
stock of unused permits should help see starts rebound
to 196K in May. Building permits for April are due out
later in the morning on the same day, and should see a
5% drop on the month after a double-digit percentage
gain in March.
4
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 8-12, 2015
Week Ahead’s Key US Number:
2.0
Retail Sales—May
%
%
US Retail Sales
1.5
(Thursday, 8:30 a.m.)
6
1.0
Andrew Grantham (416) 956-3219
0.5
4
0.0
Retail Sales
Retail Sales – ex auto
Retail Sales – control group
2
-0.5
CIBCMkt Prior
1.5%1.1%0.0%
0.9% 0.7% 0.1%
0.6% 0.5% 0.0%
-1.0
8
May-14
Sep-14
m/m % chg. (L)
Jan-15
0
May-15F
y/y % chg. (R)
Is this finally the turnaround we’ve been looking for?
For our forecast of a strong bounce in Q2 GDP, we
certainly hope so. US consumer spending has been a
serial disappointment in recent months, having failed
to rebound after what was supposed to be a weatherrelated slowdown over the winter. The good news is that
early signs for May are positive—in particular the surge in
unit auto sales to a new post-recession high
Forecast Implications—We need a sharp bounce in
US retail sales to keep us on track for the 3% growth
we currently forecast for Q2 GDP. And the surge in auto
sales is an encouraging sign that we may get it. With
savings replenished and gasoline prices still well below
year-ago levels, we expect to see stronger numbers for
retailing and wider consumer spending carrying on into
the second half of the year as well.
And just because consumers were hitting the car lots, it
doesn’t mean that they weren’t spending at the malls as
well. In fact, core retail sales have a positive correlation
with auto sales, even in non-recessionary periods. Given
recent encouraging news on the housing sector, look for
consumers to start running down pent-up demand on
furniture, appliances etc. in the months ahead.
Market Impact—We are above consensus across the
board, which would be supportive for the US$ and
consumer-related stocks and negative for fixed income.
In these often revised figures, watch for any change in
April’s growth rate to also shape market sentiment.
5
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 8-12, 2015
Equity Insights
Nick Exarhos
Easier Rate Environment to Cushion Cdn Equities
TSX More Skewed to Interest Rate Sensitive Sectors (L);
Canadian Rates to Move More Gently (R)
Despite the May jobs surge, Q1’s growth disappointments
have stretched out the potential timeline of a tightening
cycle. That stands in stark contrast with what’s happening
south of the border, where an expected second quarter
bounce—anchored by a strong retail sales report next
week—should see the Fed raise rates by September.
That will see the Canadian bond market outperform
Treasuries, while also cushioning the TSX, which has a
heavier weighting in interest rate sensitive sectors (i.e.,
financials, utilities, telecoms, and consumer discretionary)
than the S&P 500.
50
Market Cap Weight in
IR Sensitive Sectors (%)
45
35
40
30
35
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
Earnings Expectations a Bit Lofty
While a smaller climb in the discount rate will be helpful,
the Canadian economic slowdown, to say nothing of
the fall in the broader commodity complex, will weigh
on the earnings performance of the Toronto Composite.
Our top-down model of TSX earnings points to roughly
6% year-on-year earnings growth for the next twelve
months. The market, however, seems to have set loftier
goals. Consensus has placed earnings growth at around
20%, a pace not far from where it stood earlier in
the year. Swapping the consensus growth forecast for
our model’s, and market valuation seems a bit more
stretched. Stronger global growth, higher commodity
prices—particularly for oil and lumber—and a healthier
domestic economy will enable calendar ’16 earnings to
leap by 18%. Equities may be in for an uneven ride in the
next few months, as earnings disappointments are traded
off against an improving medium-term outlook.
Fcst Change in 10-year Rates
(now to Jun-16, bps)
40
TSX
S&P 500
0
Cda
USA
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
CIBC Top-Down Model Points to Slower Earnings Growth (L),
Suggesting Richer Valuations on Broader Market (R)
TSX Forward 12mo Earnings
(Growth, YoY %)
22.5
20.0
TSX Forward 12-mo PE
22
20
17.5
15.0
18
12.5
16
10.0
14
7.5
12
5.0
2.5
0.0
10
CIBC Model Consensus
w/
Consensus
w/ CIBC
Model
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
Banks Beat, Street Shrugs
Capital Markets Driving Canadian Bank Revenues (L),
But Are a More Volatile Stream (R)
Capital Markets
Share of Total Revs (%)
6
12
10
8
6
4
2
CapMkts
Wealth &
Insurance
0
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Q2-15
19.5
19.0
18.5
18.0
17.5
17.0
16.5
16.0
15.5
15.0
14.5
QoQ Standard Dev.
(%, since 2010)
P&C
Banks posted across the board beats, but investors
weren’t ready to throw wreaths at the feet of Bay Street
CEOs. Much like we saw last quarter, strength in capital
markets drove most of the positive results, pushing that
segment’s share of overall revenues toward levels not seen
in years. Revenues in that business line—recently driven
by a boom in issuance and the increased uncertainty in
financial markets which have filliped trading volumes—
tend to be lumpy in nature, with quarter-on-quarter
volatility there three times the magnitude of P&C
revenues. Look for healthier readings on the Canadian
economy late this year and into next to catalyze the more
reliable segments of bank earnings, and lead to a more
meaningful turn higher in shares.
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 8-12, 2015
Currency Currents
Andrew Grantham and Royce Mendes
Canada Losing Share
Trade Trends Diverge
120
Over the past couple of years, Canadian non-energy
exports have trended almost in lockstep with US imports.
Canada may not have been gaining market share in
the US, but the weaker C$ meant that it was no longer
losing it either. However, in recent months trends have
diverged. One reason was the surge in international
imports to the US as ships were finally unloaded after the
port strike. But even after that impact subsided in April,
US non-energy imports were running higher than our
exports. As previously discussed, that could be because
the manufacturing sector is already running into capacity
constraints. We’ll get new figures on that front next week
to see if there was any significant capacity improvement.
Bringing investment back to manufacturing is one reason
Governor Poloz seems happy for the C$ to remain around
or below the 80 cent (1.25 USDCAD) mark.
Index (Jan'13=100)
115
110
105
100
95
90
US Ex-Petroleum Import Volumes
85
Cdn Ex-Energy Export Volumes
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
80
Source: Statistics Canada, Bloomberg, CIBC
Retail Releases Not Good For US$ Recently (L), Strong Auto
Sales Doesn’t Take Away Growth From Other Areas (R)
0.4
Correlation: Auto and
Core Retail Sales
0.2
0.0
-0.4
May 13th
Apr 14th
Mar 12th
Feb 12th
Jan 14th
Dec 11th
-1.2
-0.2
2009-
0.0
-0.8
2002-07
0.4
If US consumers finally start buying, you should be buying
the US$. Recent retail sales releases have fallen below
consensus, with the greenback often seeing heavy losses
on those days. However, early indications for May look
good. Unit auto sales surged, and ex-auto sales typically
have a positive correlation to monthly changes at the car
lots, even after excluding recessions. We’ll need to see
a strong retail sales release to hit our Q2 GDP forecast,
thereby adding to expectations for Fed hikes and boosting
the US$ in the process.
Chg in US$ Index on
Days of Retail Sales
Releases
1992-2001
0.8
Buying Into the US$
-0.4
Source: Bloomberg, BEA, CIBC
Surprise EUR Strength May Not Last
Wider Bond Spreads to Pressure EUR Lower
2.0
After almost a year of depreciating versus the USD, can
the recent strength in the EUR continue? It seems unlikely.
The spread between US and German bond yields looks
set to widen again, this time driven by higher US rates.
Tighter monetary policy on the horizon in the US will
cause markets to wake up to the reality that longer-term
Treasury yields need to start moving higher. In contrast,
in the euro area, zero interest rate policies are expected
to prevail well into 2017 and, consequently, place a cap
on bond yields. That divergence will increase flows into
the dollar, at least until the Fed takes a pause on the path
to higher rates.
0.90
1.00
1.5
1.10
1.20
1.0
1.30
1.40
0.5
Jan-2014
Jul-2014
Jan-2015
Jul-2015
1.50
US-German 10-Year Spread (%)
EURUSD (Reverse)
7
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 8-12, 2015
CANADIAN RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
June/July 2015
MONDAY
TUESDAY
1
WEDNESDAY
2
THURSDAY
9
LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY
8:30 AM
11
12
CAPACITY UTILIZATION
8:30 AM
LEVEL (%)
TOTALMANUF.
14:Q383.2 83.4
14:Q483.6 83.7
15:Q1
NEW HOUSING PRICE
INDEX
8:30 AM
Bank of Canada
Governor Poloz & Sr Dep
Gov speak after Financial
System Review
@ 11:15 AM ET
Bank of Canada
Sr. Dep. Governor Wilkins
speaks in Montreal
at 4:15 PM ET
22
5
LABOUR
FORCE SURVEY
8:30 AM
AVG
EMPLOYUNEMP HRLY
(HSHOLD) RATEEARN
MY%Y
MAR
0.20.8 6.81.9
APR
-0.10.8 6.82.4
MAY
0.31.1 6.82.9
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
SURVEY
8:30 AM
BUILDING PERMITS ($)
8:30 AM M
M
(RES)(NON-RES)
FEB
2.2-5.0
MAR 6.622.1
APR
SURVEY OF
MANUFACTURING
8:30 AM
SHIPMENTS
M
Y
FEB -2.2-2.4
MAR 2.90.3
APR
IVEY PURCHASING
MANAGERS’ INDEX
10:00 AM
10
HOUSING STARTS
8:15 AM
000’s (AR)
TOTAL SINGLES
MAR190 52
APR183 59
MAY
15
4
3
INTERNATIONAL
RESERVES
8:15 AM
$BN
$BN
CHANGELEVEL
MAR 2.91377.7
APR 0.16277.8
MAY-0.574 77.3
MERCHANDISE TRADE
8:30 AM
$MN
12 MO.
BALANCE
FEB-2,042 529
MAR -3,853-4,624
APR -2,974-7,725
8
FRIDAY
16
INT’L TRANSACTIONS
IN SECURITIES C$BN, NET
8:30 AM
BONDS MONEY S
TOCKSTOT
MARKET
FEB
9.9
-2.21.69.4
MAR21.0 -5.3
6.8 22.5
APR
17
18
WHOLESALE TRADE
8:30 AM
19
RETAIL TRADE
8:30 AM (Current$)
MY
FEB 1.52.4
MAR 0.73.1
APR
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
MAR
0.71.2
APR
-0.10.8
MAY
23
24
25
26
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT,
EARNINGS & HOURS
8:30 AM
29
INDUSTRIAL PRICES
8:30 AM
M(NSA)
Y
MAR 0.2-1.8
APR -0.9-2.4
MAY
30
GDP BY INDUSTRY
8:30 AM
(2002$)
GDPIND.PROD.
MM
FEB-0.1-0.7
MAR-0.2 -1.2
APR
1
2
3
CANADA DAY
(HOLIDAY)
(Markets Closed)
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets Inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Human Resources Development Canada and the Bank of Canada.
8
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 8-12, 2015
U.S. RELEASE AND EVENT DATES
June/July 2015
MONDAY
TUESDAY
WEDNESDAY
2
1
PERS. INC & OUT.
8:30 AM SAVING
INCOMECONS RATE
M MAR
FEB0.40.15.7
MAR
0.00.55.2
APR0.40.05.6
ISM MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM COMP.
PRICES
INDEXINDEX
MAR
APR
MAY
51.539.0
51.540.5
52.849.5
2,5,7-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
FACTORY ORDERS
10:00 AM M(SA)
Y(NSA)
FEB -1.0-6.5
MAR 2.2-5.2
APR -0.4-6.4
LIGHT VEHICLES
SALES MIL (AR)
Y
MAR
17.0703.9
APR
16.4583.1
MAY
17.7146.3
THURSDAY
GOODS &
SERV. BALANCE (BOP) $B
8:30 AM GDS SERV TOT
FEB -57.0 19.8-37.2
MAR -70.0 19.4-50.6
APR -60.7 19.8-40.9
ISM NON-MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM
Beige Book
3, 10-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
3-Yr BOND ANNOUNCEMENT
10
TREASURY BUDGET
2:00 PM
10-Yr NOTE AUCTION
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
17
HOUSING
STARTS
8:30 AMMIL (AR)
M
MAR0.944 4.9
APR 1.13520.2
MAY
11
22
EXISTING HOME SALES
10:00 AM
Fed Chair Yellen speaks
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
BUSINESS INVENTORIES
10:00 AM
30-Yr BOND AUCTION
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (P)
9:55 AM
18
CPI
M(SA)
Y
(NSA)
MAR0.2 -0.1
APR
0.1
1.2
MAY
CURRENT ACCOUNT BAL.
8:30 AM
19
23
DURABLE
GOODS ORDERS
8:30 AM
M
Y
MAR 5.1-0.7
APR -0.5-2.3
MAY
NEW HOME SALES
10:00 AM
2-Yr NOTE AUCTION
24
GDP
8:30 AM (AR)
REAL IMPLICIT
GDPDEFLATOR
14:Q4(F)2.2
0.2
15:Q1(P)-0.7
-0.1
15:Q1(F)
CORPORATE PROFITS
8:30 AM
5-Yr NOTE AUCTION
CONSUMER CREDIT
3:00 PM
2,5,7-Yr NOTE SETTLEMENT
2,5,7-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
25
PERS. INC & OUT.
8:30 AM SAVING
INCOMECONS RATE
M MAR
MAR
0.00.55.2
APR0.40.05.6
MAY
26
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (F)
9:55 AM
7-Yr NOTE AUCTION
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
30
S&P/CASE-SHILLER
HOUSE PRICE INDEX
9:00 AM
CHICAGO PMI
9:45 AM
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX
10:00 PM
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
29
12
PPI
8:30 AM M (SA)
Y (NSA)
MAR0.2 -0.8
APR-0.4 -1.3
MAY
LEADING INDICATOR
10:00 AM
FOMC Rate Decision
NET CAPITAL INFLOWS TICS
4:00 PM
CONSUMER CREDIT
3:00 PM
RETAIL SALES
8:30 AM
M
Y
MAR 1.11.7
APR 0.00.9
MAY
8:30 AM
CAPACITY UTIL/
IND. PROD.
9:15 AM LEV
M
Y
MAR 78.6-0.3 2.3
APR 78.2-0.3 1.9
MAY
5
EMPLOY. SITUATION
8:30 AM
NON- CIVAVG
FARMUNEMP HRLY
PAYROLL RATE EARN
(000s)M
%
Y
MAR
1195.51.9
APR
2215.41.9
MAY
2805.52.0
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
16
15
NON-FARM
PRODUCTIVITY
8:30 AM Q/Q (AR)
Y/Y
14:Q4 (R)
-2.1
-0.1
15:Q1 (R)
-3.1
0.3
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
9
3-Yr NOTE AUCTION
4
3
ADP SURVEY
8:15 AM
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
8
FRIDAY
1
ADP SURVEY
8:15 AM
ISM MFG SURVEY
10:00 AM COMP.
PRICES
INDEXINDEX
APR
MAY
JUN
51.540.5
52.849.5
LIGHT VEHICLES
SALES MIL (AR)
Y
APR
16.4583.1
MAY
17.7146.3
JUN
2
EMPLOY. SITUATION
8:30 AM
NON- CIVAVG
FARMUNEMP HRLY
PAYROLL RATE EARN
(000s)M
%
Y
APR
2215.41.9
MAY
2805.52.0
JUN
3
INDEPENDENCE DAY OBSERVED
(HOLIDAY)
(Markets Closed, Banks Open)
FACTORY ORDERS
10:00 AM M(SA)
Y(NSA)
MAR 2.2-5.2
APR -0.4-6.4
MAY
3, 10-Yr NOTE ANNOUNCEMENT
3-Yr BOND ANNOUNCEMENT
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (8:30)
BOT (9:00) REDBOOK (8:55)
All data seasonally adjusted except where noted “NSA”. M: per cent change from previous month. Q: per cent change from previous quarter at annual rates. Y: per cent change
from year earlier. AR: Annual Rate. YTD: Year to date. Release dates are provided by sources outside CIBC World Markets inc. Dates are subject to change. Sources for historical data: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Federal Reserve Board.
9
CIBC World Markets Inc.
The Week Ahead—June 8-12, 2015
This report is issued and approved for distribution by (a) in Canada, CIBC World Markets Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, the Toronto Stock Exchange, the TSX Venture
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