January 18, 2010 KSE INDEX: SIDEWAYS AGILITY: SIDEWAY RANGE .KWSE – DAY CHART AGLT.KW – DAY CHART DEMAND, SUPPLY AND DIRECTION - HOW TO USE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Name [RIC] Daily Q.KWSE 04/05/2010 - 24/01/2011 (GMT) Weekly QBKME.KW 02/07/2006 - 13/03/2011 (GMT) 771.5 Kuw ait Stock Exchange Index [.KWSE} Last/ Close 6,915.00 Trend Short Long Term Term UP UP 0.550 1.240 0.950 0.700 0.760 0.540 UP UP FLAT UP UP UP 1.440 1.860 FLAT UP Support First Resistance Second First Second 6,612.00 6,317.00 7,108.00 7,573.00 UP FLAT DOWN UP UP UP 0.550 1.100 0.880 0.680 0.700 0.540 0.475 0.930 0.780 0.640 0.580 0.500 0.630 1.260 0.980 0.720 0.820 0.580 ….. 0.710 1.420 1.080 0.760 0.940 0.620 FLAT UP 1.420 1.720 1.280 1.200 1.560 1.990 1.700 2.340 0.375 FLAT FLAT 0.480 FLAT FLAT 0.465 UP UP 0.355 UP UP 0.091 UP DOWN 0.265 FLAT FLAT 0.192 DOWN DOWN 0.345 0.476 0.340 0.320 0.084 0.260 0.143 0.299 0.430 0.296 0.280 0.082 0.233 0.100 0.422 0.590 0.490 0.360 0.096 0.295 0.210 0.520 0.700 0.540 0.400 0.108 0.330 0.280 Banks EMA, Q.KWSE, Last Trade(Last), 21 17/01/2011, 6,928.32 EMA, Q.KWSE, Last Trade(Last), 55 17/01/2011, 6,915.48 BarHLC, Q.KWSE, Last Trade 17/01/2011, 6,925.1, 6,899.7, 6,915 7,129.06 Price KWD 7,100 7,000 6,900 6,763.64 BarHLC, QBKME.KW, Last Trade 23/01/2011, 760, 740, 760 EMA, QBKME.KW, Last Trade(Last), 21 23/01/2011, 665.6 EMA, QBKME.KW, Last Trade(Last), 55 23/01/2011, 586.5 Price KWf 700.2 550 Gulf Bank [GBKK.KW] Kuw ait Finance House (KFH) [KFIN.KW] Commercial Bank of Kuw ait (COBK) [CBKK.KW] Al Ahli Bank of Kuw ait [ABKK.KW} Ahli United Bank (AUB) [BKME.KW] Burgan Bank [BURG.KW] 500 Telecom 450 Mobile Telecommunications Company [ZAIN.KW] National Mobile Telecommunications (Wataniya) [NMTC.KW] 650 Bullish 600 579.5 6,800 6,700 6,600 6,500 426 6,400 6,317.03 Volume KWD RSI, Q.KWSE, Last Trade(Last), 14, Exponential 17/01/2011, 39.306 400M Vol, Q.KWSE, Last Trade 17/01/2011, 182.375M 300M 200M .12 Others 350 Value KWD 60 40 20 .1234 400 .123 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 0614 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 21 29 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 August 2010 Sep 10 October 2010 Nov 10 December 2010 January 2011 • KSE Index [.KWSE: 6,915.00 points] The Index is losing strength. Failure to make it to the resistance of 7,2 points means a nose dive to lower levels. Support is at 6,76 points. Traders can sell the rallies. Investors: Reduce/Hold. • Argan Real Estate [ARGK.KW: KD0.192] the price is testing resistance levels. A close above KD.2 triggers a re-entry signal and means a potential climb to KD.28. The trend is flat. Traders: Take some profits at current levels. Investors: Hold. • Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait [ABKK.KW: KD0.700] the stock is testing the resistance found at KD.7. The trend is up. Traders: Enter during the dips. Support is at KD.7. Investors: Add/Hold. 318.5 .1 Volume KWf RSI, QBKME.KW, Last Trade(Last), 14, Exponential 23/01/2011, 68.52 10M Vol, QBKME.KW, Last Trade .1234 23/01/2011, 660,000 Q3 Q4 2006 Q1 Q2 Q3 2007 Q4 Q1 Value KWf 30 .123 Q2 Q3 2008 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2010 Q4 Q1 2011 • Ahli United Bank (AUB) [BKME.KW: KD0.760] broke the resistance of KD.7 upwards and is searching for a peak. The trend is up. Buy the dips. Low-cost entry-levels are found at KD.6. Stop loss at KD.6. Investors: Add/Hold. • Salhiah Real Estate [SREK.KW: KD0.265] the price is going through a correction. Resistance is at KD.2 upwards. Traders can re-enter during the dips. Enter close to the support of KD.26. Investors: Hold. • United Real Estate [UREK.KW: KD0.091] the price broke the resistance levels of KD.8 upwards. The trend is gently rising. Traders: Buy the dips. Investors: Hold. Commercial Facilities (CFC) [FACI.KW] Agility [AGLT.KW] KIPCO [KPRO.KW] National Industries (NIG) [NIND.KW] United Real Estate [UREK.KW] Salhiah Real Estate [SREK.KW] Argan Real Estate [ARGK.KW] • Combining Technical & Fundamental Analysis Investors can combine TA with FA for fine tuning their investment decisions. FA and asset allocation are building blocks for creating an investment portfolio/fund. TA is used to maximize gains/losses through trading the minor zigzag moves during a bull/bear trend. Technical trading signals do not weaken the validity of the fundamental buy/sell recommendations. • Trend Direction The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use a range of MA’s between & period moving averages, combined with accurately drawn trend lines (which ever is more reliable) to determine the direction of the short and long term trends. • Investment Horizon (As an approximate guideline, and not a rule) Time horizon for traders/short term trend is - weeks, and - months for investors/long. • Trading Tactics According to your investment horizon watch the direction of the trend. During down trends, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels. During up trends, investors attempt buying close to support levels. • Support & Resistance The table indicates horizontal S&R levels, and can be used for the longer term. The text observes rising and falling S&R points. 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