תמחור דינמי מכרזים ומכירות פומביות Auctions!
תמחור דינמי מכרזים ומכירות פומביות !Auctions פרופ' שיזף רפאלי ביה"ס לניהול והמרכז לחקר האינטרנט אוניברסיטת חיפה http://bit.ly/SheizafDynamicPricing sheizaf@rafaeli.net http://rafaeli.net ראשי פרקים :מה נלמד? מהם תמחור דינמי ,מכרז ,ומכירות פומביות? למה הם חשובים? אסימטריה בכוח :קביעת כללים ,מחיר ומידע. טקסונומיה :אנגלי ,הולנדי ,מכרז ,ויקרי. Valuation, Reserve price קללת הזוכה ,יללת המפסיד מכרזים כפולים והפוכים ואחרים צליפות ,קנוניות ,הוגנות ,אמון הציבור. נפתח בחידה ובבדיחה חידה :איך מחלקים עוגה בין ילדים כך שנשיג צדק מירבי ונמזער את כמות הדמעות? Riddle: How does one equitably divide a cake among several children והבדיחה? ?And the joke אתמול הייתי בסופרמרקט השכונתי Visited the local supermarket מצאתי קופסה של פסוליה )שעועית( והורדתי אותה מהמדף לעגלת הקניות Found a can of beans הקופאית העבירה במכשיר הקורא בברקוד... The cashier passed it through the reader הכל מקיח !?! תמחור דינמי מכרזים ומכירות פומביות !Auctions פרופ' שיזף רפאלי Prof. Sheizaf Rafaeli )“Buy Me, Buy You” (BMBY חישובי ארנונה יווניים ?מתי מכרזים הם הכלי המתאים When are Auctions used? Auctions are useful when – selling a commodity of undetermined quality; – the goods do not have a fixed or determined market value, in other words, when a seller is unsure of the price he can get. Choosing to sell an item by auctioning it off is – more flexible than setting a fixed price; – less time-consuming and expensive than negotiating a price. Auctions can be used – for single items such as a work of art; – and for multiple units of a homogeneous item such as gold or Treasury securities. • האיכות לא ידועה • המחיר לא ידוע • הגמישות רצויה • הזמן לוחץ )מכרזים מהירים (יותר ממו"מ • שימושי גם לפריטים בודדים • וגם לצברים של פרטים Auctions Everything is (becoming?) negotiable. Auctio = increase, ()יוסף (but not all auctions are about increasing prices!) Auctions are useful for price discovery Auctions are useful to move merchandise quickly Is everything auctionable? הכל הופך מקיח מכרזים ומכירות פומביות מכרזים ומכירות פומביות משמשים לגילוי המחיר הנכון מכרזים ומכירות פומביות משמשים להנעה מהירה האם אפשר למכור הכל ?במכרזים ומכירות פומביות Projected Growth in Revenues from C2C Auctions and B2C Dynamic Pricing SOURCE: Based on data from eMarketer, Inc., 2005; Forrester Research, 2005; authors’ estimates. תמחור דינמי Dynamic Pricing http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fiamazon2jan02,1,6024678.story?coll=la-headlines-business Amazon mystery: pricing of books A Times reporter finds fluctuating costs for his obscure chosen titles at the Internet retailer. By David Streitfeld Times Staff Writer January 2, 2007 Imagine this: You go to a bookstore, browse, choose a couple of volumes. But you don't want to carry the books around. So you ask the clerk to hold the tomes until Saturday, when you'll come back to buy them. When you return, the bookseller hands you the items but advises you that he's raised the prices. "I knew you were hot to buy them," the clerk says, "so I figured I could make a few extra bucks." That's what it feels like online bookseller Amazon.com Inc. has been doing to me. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-amazon2jan02,1,6024678.story?coll=la-headlines-business Amazon mystery: pricing of books A Times reporter finds fluctuating costs for his obscure chosen titles at the Internet retailer. By David Streitfeld Times Staff Writer January 2, 2007 Imagine this: You go to a bookstore, browse, choose a couple of volumes. But you don't want to carry the books around. So you ask the clerk to hold the tomes until Saturday, when you'll come back to buy them. When you return, the bookseller hands you the items but advises you that he's raised the prices. "I knew you were hot to buy them," the clerk says, "so I figured I could make a few extra bucks." That's what it feels like online bookseller Amazon.com Inc. has been doing to me. On Nov. 6, seeking to boost my dubious culinary skills, I decided to buy "The Cast Iron Skillet Cookbook." I went to Amazon and placed the book in my electronic shopping cart but got distracted and never finished the transaction. The next day, I signed on to Amazon again. A pop-up message informed me that the price had increased from $11.02 to $11.53. This seemed odd. In physical stores, prices of books are usually fixed, immune to fluctuation by season or whim. Indeed, they're one of the few consumer items that come with a printed price from the manufacturer. Although the electronic world provides much greater latitude in pricing, as a longtime Amazon watcher I had never seen such an abrupt and unexplained price change. The cookbook, published two years ago by a regional press named Sasquatch Books, is decidedly obscure. Amazon's bestseller list gave it a ranking in the 18,000 neighborhood. I checked with friends, who accessed their own Amazon accounts. They determined that the price was now $11.53 for them too. Was it conceivable that Amazon, seeing the only prospective customer in sight reaching for his wallet, decided to raise the price just a bit — enough to help its bottom line but not enough to scare him off? I decided on a test. I added a bunch of books, most of them newly published, most of them obscure, to my shopping baskets with both Amazon and its British affiliate, Amazon.co.uk. On Dec. 15, I checked my shopping baskets. Nine of the U.S. books had increased in price; three had decreased. At the British branch, nine had increased and none had decreased. The increases were modest — often about 5%, sometimes less. But, as with "The Cast Iron Skillet Cookbook," they were perplexing. Why would the journals of novelist John Fowles, published two months ago to widespread apathy, increase by $1.05? An Amazon spokesman said the company wasn't trying to make a few extra bucks off me during the holidays, but that it otherwise wouldn't talk about its pricing strategies. "Prices change," spokesman Sean Sundwall said. "Prices go up, prices go down." Sucharita Mulpuru, an e-commerce analyst at Forrester Research Inc., wondered whether Amazon was going down the path of dynamic pricing. Dynamic pricing involves selling identical material for different amounts based on the customer's willingness to pay. In the physical world it's a common feature. Want to fly to Paris tomorrow? It's going to cost lots more than if you can wait a few weeks. But there's also the risk of alienating customers. In 1999, Coca-Cola Co. was reported to be testing a vending machine that would charge more for its soft drinks in hot weather than in mild. "It's fair that it should be more expensive," then-Chairman Douglas Ivester said. What seemed fair to him seemed like price gouging to others. Coke promptly denied it was considering such a plan. In 2000, Amazon was found to be charging people different prices for the same DVD. Amazon said it was doing this randomly, but there was another outcry and the company apologized. Robert M. Weiss, a Chicago lawyer who has co-written an academic study of dynamic pricing, said that letting prices fluctuate almost as if books were stocks had obvious advantages for Amazon's inventory control and profit margins. But its customers might feel manipulated. "It might seem fairer if the consumer also had the ability to negotiate," Weiss said. A week before Christmas, when I signed on to Amazon again, I was informed of another round of price changes for the books in my basket. The price of "The Jack Vance Treasury," a book that won't be available until late January, was lowered by 38 cents. But if I was going to stuff a stocking with the "Complete Poetry of Cesar Vallejo," it was going to cost me $2.50 more. Amazon spokesman Sundwall noted that the company disclosed the price changes. "We're not trying to hide anything," he said. But this notice comes via a temporary message at the top of the shopping basket. Click your mouse once, and it disappears for good. The price change for "Gonzo," a deluxe memorial to iconoclastic rebel Hunter S. Thompson issued by L.A.'s Ammo Books, was too big for anyone to miss. On Dec. 26, Amazon raised it from $225 to $300. Steve Crist, the publisher, said he didn't know exactly what the bookseller was doing, but made it clear that none of the $75 increase was due to him. "As Amazon's stock of 'Gonzo' dwindles, I imagine it sees an opportunity to achieve a higher profit on its remaining copies," Crist said. * david.streitfeld@latimes.com Copyright 2007 Los Angeles Times | http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424127887323777204578189391813881534-lMyQjAxMTAyMDIwMzEyNDMyWj.html מכרזים ומכירות פומביות Auctions ? הגדרותdefinitions? A competition-based method of allocating scarce goods. An auction offers the advantage of simplicity in determining marketbased prices. It is efficient in the sense that it usually ensures that – resources accrue to those who value them most highly; – sellers receive the collective assessment of the value. Often, the auctioneer is not owner but agent. Rules set by seller, price set by bidder. Most efficient, purest of markets . Are auctions the most fair mechanism? שיטה מבוססת תחרות להקצאת טובין ושרותים הנמצאים במחסור שיטה יעילה במיוחד לא תמיד המוכר הוא הבעלים הכללים נקבעים על ידי ,המוכר המחיר נקבע על ידי הקונה ? האם זאת השיטה ההוגנת ביותר מכרזים מאד נפוצים במסחר בין עסקים Auctions very popular in B2B בואו נשחק "כסף למכירה במכרז" Let’s play the “auction a dollar” game • רוצים לקנות 20שקל בשקל? ?Wanna buy a dollar (shekel) for a nickel • כל אחד יכול להשתתף. • זוכה מי שמציע Anyone can play. Highest bidder gets it. את הסכום הגבוה ביותר Both highest and second highest bidder pay. • המציע הגבוה וגם השני בגובה Payment to occur online, in view of class. משלמים בפועל. All bids are public, audible and not sealed, in • אספקת הסכום הנמכר והתשלום view of class. ייעשו בפומבי ,לעיני כל הכיתה No union, monopoly or “rings” allowed. • כל ההצעות תהיינה ציבוריות, נשמעות בקול רם, !TIME IS MONEY לעיני ואוזני כל הכיתה ,ולא חתומות. • לא תתקבלנה הצעות מן הצד, או "מתחת לשולחן". • נדרשים שקט מוחלט וחל איסור על התאגדות .כללי השוק החופשי ייאכפו. • Time is Money Auction Terminology Anonymity - Open (Cry) or Sealed Bid Secrecy - is inventory amount disclosed everyone pay the same price, or what they bid? Confidentiality - are participant(s) and winner(s) identities revealed Timing - pre-specified closing time, interval, price-determined, etc. Valuation Discriminative? - does Restrictions Increments Reserve price Internet Auctions Kumar and Feldman IBM Research : http://www.ibm.com/iac/papers/auction_fp.pdf מושגים מרכזיים במכרזים Auction Terminology Valuation הערכת מחיר פרטית או ציבורית? ?Discriminative מכרז מפלה? Restrictions הגבלות Increments מדרגות השתתפות מינימום Reserve price מחיר מינימאלי – Anonymity אנונימיות – Confidentiality חשיפת זהויות הזוכים Secrecyחשיפת היקפי המלאי – Timing תזמון הסיום (הערכות שווי )פרטיות וציבוריות Valuations Reasons for bidding in the auction: למה להשתתף – Wish to acquire goods for personal consumption (wine or art); – Wish to acquire items for resale or commercial use. Private valuation הערכת שווי פרטית – Goods are acquired goods for personal consumption; – The bidder makes his own private valuation of the item for sale. – All bidders have private valuations and tend to keep that information private. » There would be little point in an auction if the seller knew already how much the highest valuation of an object will be. (הערכות שווי )פרטיות וציבוריות Valuations Common valuation הערכת שווי משותפת – Goods are acquired goods for resale or commercial use; – An individual bid is predicated not only upon a private valuation reached independently, but also upon an estimate of future valuations of later buyers. Each bidder of this type tries (using the same measurements) to guess the ultimate price of the item. – The item is really worth the same to all, but the exact amount is unknown Example – Purchasing land for its mineral rights » Each bidder has different information and a different valuation, but each must guess what price the land might ultimately bring. טקסונומיה )מיון( של סוגי מכרזים Taxonomy of Auctions William Vickrey [Vickrey] established the basic taxonomy of auctions based upon the order in which prices are quoted and the manner in which bids are tendered. He established four major (one sided) auction types: ,מיון מכרזים לארבעה סוגים עקריים ,על פי עליה או ירידה במחיר .ואופן ההגשה של ההצעות .מכרז אנגלי עולה ופומבי – English: Ascending-price, open-cry; – Dutch: descending-price, open-cry, – First-price, sealed bid, – Vickrey or second-price, sealed bid. .מכרז הולנדי יורד ופומבי מכרז,מכירה לא פומבית . סודי,מחיר ראשון סודי,מכרז ויקרי מחיר שני טקסונומיה )מיון( של סוגי מכרזים Taxonomy of Auctions Classification אנגלי English הולנדי Dutch Seller announces reserve price or some low opening bid. Bidding increases progressively until demand falls. Winning bidder pays highest valuation. Bidder may re-assess evaluation during auction. Seller announces very high opening bid. Bid is lowered progressively until demand rises to match supply. טקסונומיה )מיון( של סוגי מכרזים Taxonomy of Auctions Classification (cot..) ,מכירה לא פומבית מכרז Bids submitted in written form with no knowledge of bids of others. Winner pays the exact amount he bid. First-price, sealed bid or discriminatory מכרז ויקרי Vickrey Bids submitted in written form with no knowledge of the bids of others. Winner pays the second-highest amount bid. המכרז האנגלי English Auction Private vs. Common valuation Audible bids, open outcry, ascending price reserve price, “knocked down” Roles of anonymity and experience המכרז ההולנדי Dutch Auctions Descending price, Later winners pay less Flowers,fish, credit, and antiques עתיקות, אשראי, פרחים,דגים המכרז ההולנדי והאנגלי --הדמייה סימולציה :כוחה של פסיכולוגיה Seller could (?) receive top price. ”Think about auction “frenzy מה עם הפסיכולוגיה? Try the psychology Take the Dutch descending auction flower market simulation challenge, at: http://auctions.rafaeli.net http://http://research.haifa.ac.il/~avinoy /auction/ קללת הזוכה,המכרז האנגלי English Auction, Winner’s Curse Naming problems (in financial community: English is sealed, Dutch is something else) קללת הזוכה Winner’s Curse: The winner actually bids the furthest from the average bid, which is the best estimate of the item’s actual worth (reasonable information). Do you really want to hire the employee passed over by all others? John Glenn’s story. "פתרון ל"קללת הזוכה מכרזי ויקרי Named for William Vickrey (called “Dutch Auction” in the financial community) Highest bidder wins, but pays only the price offered by second bidder ,זוכה המציע הגבוה משלם את המחיר השני Sealing is imperative. ! סודיות קריטית "רכישות קבוצתיות" Reserve Price A reserve price is the minimum price that would enable the sale to occur. When a reserve price is not met, the item is not sold. Sometimes the auctioneer will maintain secrecy about the reserve price, and he must start the bidding without revealing the lowest acceptable price. One possible explanation for the secrecy is to thwart rings. A ring is subsets of bidders who have banded together and agree not to outbid each other, thus effectively lowering the winning bid. אסטרטגיות של מכרזים Auction Strategies תורת המשחקים בשרות החלטות במכרזים ומכירות פומביות מהי ההחלטה הרציונאלית? תגובותיהם של משתתפים ,בהתאם לחוקי המכרז החלטות מנהלי המכרז בבחירת הכללים שלו צריך לנסות לחזות התנהגות של אחרים ,ולנסות לברר את כמות המידע שברשותם English Strategy In a private-value English auction, a player's best strategy is to bid a small amount more than the previous high bid until he reaches his valuation and then stop. This is optimal because he always wants to buy an object if the price is less than its value to him, but he wants to pay the lowest possible price. Bidding always ends when the price reaches the valuation of the player with the second-highest valuation. English Strategy (cot..) An advantage to English auctions is that a bidder gains information. He can observe and see not only that other players drop out, but also the price at which the competition abandons the bidding. That tells a bidder a great deal about the valuations of others and allows a bidder to revise his valuation. A player's strategy is his series of bids as a function of – his value; – his prior estimate of the other players' valuations; – the past bids of other players. His bid can be updated as information changes. Disadvantages of English Auction The key to any successful auction (from a seller's point of view) is the effect of competition among the potential buyers. In an English auction, the underbidder usually forces the bid up by one small step at a time. Often a successful bidder acquires an object for considerably less than his maximum valuation simply because he need only increase each bid by a small increment. – the seller does not necessarily receive maximum value. Other auction types may be superior to the English auction for this reason (at least from the seller's perspective). Auction Strategies Dutch Strategy At some point in advance, the bidder must decide the maximum amount he will bid (the same problem as that facing a bidder in a sealed-bid auction) . The decision is based upon – his own valuation of the object; – his prior beliefs about the valuations of other bidders. This auction type is strategically equivalent to first-price sealed auction because no relevant information is disclosed in the course of the auction, only at the end when it is too late. מכירות )לא( פומביות ומכרזים חסומים ?אפליה A bidding period followed by a resolution phase “Discriminatory” when more than one item sold, at varying prices. First Price- Sealed Bid Sealed (not open-outcry like the English or Dutch varieties) and thus hidden from other bidders. A winning bidder pays exactly the amount he bid. Usually, (but not always) each participant is allowed one bid which means that bid preparation is especially important. a sealed-bid format has two distinct periods – a bidding period in which participants submit their bids; – a resolution phase in which the bids are opened and the winner is determined (sometimes the winner is not announced). Multiple Items in a First-Price, Sealed Bid Auction When multiple units are being auctioned, the auction is called "discriminatory" because not all winning bidders pay the same amount. In a first-price auction (one unit up for sale) each bidder submits one bid in ignorance of all other bids. The highest bidder wins and pays the amount he bid. In a "discriminatory” auction, sealed bids are sorted from high to low, and items are awarded at highest bid price until the supply is exhausted. Winning bidders can (and usually do) pay different prices. Bidding Strategy From a bidder's point of view, a high bid raises the probability of winning but lowers the profit if the bidder is victorious. A good strategy is to shade a bid downward closer to market consensus, a strategy that also helps to avoid winner's curse. First Price, Sealed Bid Strategy It is difficult to specify a single strategy because a profitmaximizing bid depends upon the actions of others. The tradeoff is between bidding high and winning more often, and bidding low and benefiting more if the bid wins (bigger profit margin). Most bidders attempt to shade their bids to move closer to market consensus. This also helps to avoid winner's curse. "פתרון ל"קללת הזוכה מכרזי ויקרי The uniform second-price auction is commonly called the Vickrey auction. The bids are sealed, and each bidder is ignorant of other bids. The item is awarded to highest bidder at a price equal to the second-highest bid (or highest unsuccessful bid). – winner pays less than the highest bid. Example – Suppose bidder A bids $10, bidder B bids $15, and bidder C offers $20, bidder C would win, however he would only pay the price of the second-highest bid, namely $15. ביי- וגם של אי, בתימחור של גוגל,משמש במכרזים של ממשלות "פתרון ל"קללת הזוכה מכרזי ויקרי When auctioning multiple units, all winning bidders pay for the items at the same price – the highest losing price. It seems obvious that a seller would make more money by using a first-price auction, but, in fact, that has been shown to be untrue. Bidders fully understand the rules and modify their bids as circumstances dictate. Bid adjustment In the case of a Vickrey auction, bidders adjust upward. No one is deterred out of fear that he will pay too high a price. Aggressive bidders receive sure and certain awards but pay a price closer to market consensus. The price that winning bidder pays is determined by competitors' bids alone and does not depend upon any action the bidder undertakes. Less bid shading occurs because people don't fear winner's curse. Bidders are less inclined to compare notes before an auction. Vickery Strategy The dominant strategy for a bidder in a Vickrey (secondprice) auction is to submit a bid equal to his true reservation price because he then accepts all offers below his reservation bid and none that are above. (according to Paul Milgrom) A participant who bids less is more likely to lose the auction and all that strategy accomplishes is to lower the chance of victory. Bidding high carries the risk of winner's curse. Neither affects the price paid if he wins. Vickery Strategy (cont.) When each bidder adopts a strategy of bidding his true price, the outcome is that the item is awarded to the bidder with the highest valuation at a price equal to the second highest valuation. The existence of a dominant strategy means that bidder can determine his own sealed bid without regard for the actions of others. So a second-price auction duplicates the principal characteristics of an English auction. A potential drawback is that this system requires total honesty from the auctioneer(s). If the auctioneer is not trustworthy, he could open the bids, find the winner and insert a new bid just barely under that to ensure higher revenues. Auction types: Double Auctions Both bidders and sellers submit “bids”, “asks”. Has roots in haggling Offers are ranked. Double dutch auction runs two sequential clocks. Probably very attractive when computerized. ?מהו מכרז הפוך What is a Reverse Auction? בהם הספקים,מכרזים הפוכים הם מכרזים במחיר יורד מורידים מחיר באופן הדרגתי ומתמשך Reverse Auctions are “downward price” auctions in which suppliers continue to lower their prices until the auction closes. Buyers watch as competitors lower price in real time. Synopsis A New Pricing Tool: Market will likely drive prices down. Choice can be on price or best value. Request for Proposal Analyze Proposals for Responsibility Responsiveness Reverse Auction Choose winning proposal Award Contract Award Contract מכרז טיפוסי נמכר למרבה במחיר! קונה 1 קונה 2 מוכר קונה 3 קונה 4 שוק תחרותי במיוחד מכרז הפוך מוכר 4 מוכר 3 מוכר 2 מתווך קונה מוכר 1 Reverse Auctions מכרזים הפוכים …Achieving Savings On-Line Suppliers $ GCN Illustration by Michael J. Bechetti DOD and Other Federal Agencies Reverse Auctions Priceline.com מדוע מכרזים הפוכים? מייעל את תהליך הרכש • מגדיל את ההשתתפות ומאפשר גישה לספקים • ושווקים חדשים יעילות תפעולית • שקיפות בתהליך הרכש • מגדיל את המודיעין העסקי וההבנה לגבי השוק • חסכון כספי גדול! • Items Commercial Industry has Auctioned Surplus Assets Chemicals Food Ingredients Road Salt Home & Personal Care Vitamin Premix Ferroalloy Molten Sulfur Chlorine & Caustic Soda Sulfuric Acid Packaging Pallets Corrugated Polymer Bags Labels Injection Molded Plastics Folding Cartons Packaging Adhesive Plastics Blow Molded Plastic Injection Molded Plastics Die Cut Foam Conduit Molded Rubber Electronics Computer Monitors Switches Resistors Capacitors Printed Circuit Boards Insulators Control Panel Assemblies Electro-Mechanical Transformers Solenoids Wire Harnesses Services Car Rental Temporary Services Telecom Installation Ground Transportation Machine Tool Repair Construction Site Prep Ocean Freight US Broker Services Construction Services Security Guard Services Tax Prep Services Hotel Rooms Aerospace Parts Locomotives Stamping Presses Construction Equipment Equipment Fork Lifts Broaching Machines Mobile Equipment Earth Moving Equipment Top Plates Valves Injection Molding Machines Bridge Crane Cutting Tools Miscellaneous Lumber Tempered Safety Glass Promotional Items Crankshaft Gages PC Peripherals Pipes, Valves & Fittings Metals Aluminum Steel Titanium Metal Castings Commercial Machinings Aerospace Machinings Metal Stampings Springs Magnesium Copper Electrical Steel Aerospace Metals Service Center Metals Cold Headed Components Specialty Forgings Fasteners Stainless Steel Metal Forging Wire Mesh Energy Coal Electricity Diesel Fuel Other auction types Simultaneous bidding (Japanese) Haphazard (random) order Handshake (Chinese) format Whisper Candle-light (time-interval) Silent Swiss (with regrets!) תובנות ממחקר התנהגותי על מכרזים Seller and Consumer Behavior at Auctions Seller profits: function of arrival rate, auction length, and number of units at auction Auction prices not necessarily the lowest Reasons include herd behavior (tendency to gravitate toward, and bid for, auction listing with one or more existing bids) Unintended results of participating in auctions: Winner’s regret Seller’s lament Loser’s lament Consumer trust also an important motivating factor in auctions When Auction Markets Fail: Fraud and Abuse in Auctions Auction markets are particularly prone to fraud 2005 IC3 statistics: 81% of Internet fraud complaints concerned online auctions Median lost: $200 Most common fraudulent payment mechanism: money orders and credit cards Sniping http://www.esnipe.com http://www.BidNip.com http://www.auctionstealer.com http://auctionblitz.com Auctions could be trouble... הונאות וקנוניות Auction Collusion and Tricks According to Fraud.org, online auctions were the #1 source (68%) of complaints in some years. עוד הונאות וקנוניות לאחרונה משתפר מעט קנוניות וטריקים Auction Collusion and Tricks ALL auction types can •כל שיטות המכרזים be manipulated (ניתנות לתפלול )מניפולציה Serious problem with trust •בעיה אמתית עם אמון Hence need for escrow, credit, evaluation and •לכן נדרשים כלים שונים של performance data on ונתונים על המשתתפים,•נאמנות participants. •תפקידם וסכנתם של Rings, cartels and ' וכו, אכיפה,קרטלים enforcement "צליפה" במכרזים sniping הונאה במכרזים כללי המכרז Understand how the auction works. Ask about delivery, returns, warranties and service. זהות הקונה,זהות המוכר Check out the seller. Check out buyers and shills. Traceroute? זהירות מיוחדת כשמדובר באנשים פרטיים Be especially careful if the seller is a private individual. חשיבותה של כתובת פיזית Get a physical address and other identifying information. שיטות מתוחכמות שרות, אחריות, החזרות,הובלה זהירות עם אוספים Be wary of claims about collectibles. שימוש בשכל ישר Use common sense to guide you. !אמצעי תשלום Pay the safest way. לא להתבייש להתלונן Let the auction site know if you have a problem. It is their business. Shilling, sniping, rings, Escrow, Credit. Performance data Make use of http://www.ftc.gov, http://www.fraud.org Online Auction trust, ratings and User Profiles ?ומה לא מוכרים במכרזים מקוונים Some other things for auction Blood, kidneys, wombs, virginity, soul Auction resources http://www.internetauctionlist.com/ the internet auction list http://www.AuctionAnything.com http://www.ebay.com Auction resources Frictionless Commerce? MySimon BotSpot DealPilot, Nextag.com Froogle.com for price comparison and haggling Israeli auction sites, agents in auctions http://www.michraz-Ilmedina.co.il http://www.2bid.co.il http://www.netaction.co.il http://www.4sale.co.il/ http://www.vshop.co.il/ http://www.10bid.com/ http://www.priceit.co.il/ http://www.olsale.co.il/ http://www.rusure.com/ http://www.bigdeal.co.il/ http://www.salestorm.co.il/ Conclusions Online auctions are becoming extremely popular because – retailing is moving away from a fixed-price paradigm to negotiation to be able to follow their customers’ valuations; – online auctions have wide geographic reach; – automated negotiations are cheaper and faster. It is also a vibrant research area since the research on automated negotiations and their idiosyncrasies has just started. Benefits of Auctions Liquidity Price discovery Price transparency Market efficiency Lower transaction costs Consumer aggregation Network effects Risks and Costs of Auctions for Consumers and Businesses Delayed consumption costs Monitoring costs Possible solutions include: Fixed pricing Watch lists Proxy bidding Equipment costs Trust risks Possible solution—rating systems (not always successful) Fulfillment costs – Internet Auction Basics Internet auctions are different from traditional auctions Tend to go on much longer (usually a week) Have a variable number of bidders who come and go from auction arena Market power and bias in dynamically priced markets Where number of buyers and sellers is few or equal: neutral Where one or small number of sellers and many buyers: seller bias Where many sellers and few buyers: buyer bias Internet Auction Basics (cont’d) Price Allocation Rules – – Uniform pricing rule: Multiple winners who all pay the same price Discriminatory pricing rule: Winners pay different amount depending on what they bid Bias in Dynamically Priced Markets Types of Auctions English auctions: Easiest to understand and most common Single item up for sale to single seller Highest bidder wins Traditional Dutch auction Uses a clock visible to all that displays starting price, ticks down until buyer stops it Dutch Internet auction Public ascending price, multiple units Final price is lowest successful bid, which sets price for all higher bidders Types of Auctions (cont’d) Name Your Own Price Auctions Pioneered by Priceline Users specify what they are willing to pay for goods or services and multiple providers bid for their business Prices do not descend and are fixed Types of Auctions (cont’d) Group Buying Auctions (Demand Aggregators) Facilitate group buying of products at dynamically adjusted discount prices based on high volume purchases Based on two principles • Sellers are more likely to offer discounts to buyers purchasing in volume • Buyers increase their purchases as prices fall Professional Service Auctions—Elance.com Auction Aggregators—use Web crawlers to search thousands of Web auction sites and accumulate information on products, bids, auction duration, etc. Unlicensed aggregators opposed by eBay When to Use Auctions (And For What) In Business Factors to consider: Type of product Product life cycle Channel management Type of auction Initial pricing Bid increments Auction length Number of items Price allocation rule Closed vs. open bidding Auction Solution Providers for Business Some provide software that enable firm to host auctions on their own Web site Some have developed tools that allow a business to transfer information from its product database directly to multiple auction sites automatically תוצאת אמת בהטמעת מכרזים 60% Promotional Items Plastic Shopping Baskets Photo Film Plastic Sheet Protectors Cameras 40% 36% 30% 20% 22% 20% 10% 6% 0% Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 תוצאת אמת בהטמעת מכרזים Bar Code Supplies Paint Markers Safety Supplies 48% 40% $405,000 Savings 30% 29% 21% 20% 10% 0% Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 תוצאת אמת בהטמעת מכרזים Pump Repair Stand-by Generator 40% Conference Services AV Equipment Printing Signs & Banners PVC Conduit 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Day 10 11 12 11 12 13 14 15 תוצאת אמת בהטמעת מכרזים Saved $6 Million Over 3 Events = 42% Average Savings 49% Business Cards Stationary Supplies Promotional Items 40% 44% 30% 26% 20% 10% 0% Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 חוק סימון מוצרים :מנהל מחקר וכלכלה בתמ"ת http://www.moital.gov.il/NR/exeres/800833FA-109D-4837-8A22-00244D1D6AA0.htm ""בולשיט" לעומת "בול http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF3ybaPR1N8 (eBay shows off auction app for the iPhone) שונאים אתeBay http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDwQiErBj_M http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/createpdf.cfm?articleid=1245 Knowledge@wharton What Consumers -- and Retailers -- Should Know about Dynamic Pricing ראשי פרקים :מה למדנו? מהם תמחור דינמי ,מכרז ,ומכירות פומביות? למה הם חשובים? אסימטריה בכוח :קביעת כללים ,מחיר ומידע. טקסונומיה :אנגלי ,הולנדי ,מכרז ,ויקרי. Valuation, Reserve price קללת הזוכה ,יללת המפסיד מכרזים כפולים והפוכים ואחרים צליפות ,קנוניות ,הוגנות ,אמון הציבור. תודה שאלות ותגובות ?QUESTIONS פרופ' שיזף רפאלי ביה"ס לניהול והמרכז לחקר חברת המידע אוניברסיטת חיפה http://bit.ly/SheizafDynamicPricing sheizaf@rafaeli.net http://rafaeli.net סגור חלון האח המרושע של eBay אתר Swoopoפורץ למוח האנושי ומנצל את מה שכלכלנים מכנים "שקר העלויות המושקעות" טים הארפורד 28/3/2010 בעל טור ב"ניו-יורק טיימס" כינה אותו "שטני"; הבלוגר ג'ף אטווד טוען שמדובר ב"תוכנית העסקית הקרובה ביותר לרשע טהור ומזוקק שראיתי בחיי"; בלוגר שלישי הגדיר אותו "פריצה מרושעת למוח האנושי" .המושא של כל השנאה הזאת הוא אתר בשם Swoopo,או "האח התאום והמרושע )עוד יותר( של eBay",כפי שכינה אותו עורך מגזין ITכלשהו. אתר Swoopoמנהל מכירות פומביות בסגנון "שלם-לפי-הצעה" -כל הצעת מחיר שמוגשת עולה כסף .התוצאה היא שכל מי שמשתתף במכרז משלם סכום כלשהו; אמנם הזוכה מקבל עסקה משתלמת ,אך מציעי ההצעות האחרות מפסידים .חוקי המכרזים משתנים ,אך לרוב כל הצעה עולה למציע 60סנטים ,וכל הצעה שמוגשת מעלה את המחיר הסופי ב 12-סנטים בלבד. לדוגמה ,קונסולת משחקים בשווי 500דולר נמכרת באתר ב 240-דולר .ההצעה המנצחת ,הצעת 240הדולר ,היא ההצעה ה2,000- במספר; Swoopoזוכה להכנסה בסך 240דולר מההצעה המנצחת ,ועוד 1,200דולר מההצעות האחרות שהוגשו ,וכל זאת כאמור עבור קונסולה השווה 500דולר .במכרזים אחרים באתר כל הצעה שמוגשת מעלה את מחיר הסחורה בסנט אחד בלבד ,שיטה שמשמעותה הפסדים כבדים למשתתפים האחרים במכרז. ריצ'רד תאלר ,כלכלן התנהגותי ובעל טור ב"ניו-יורק טיימס" ,בדק 26מכרזים שבהם הציע אתר Swoopoצ'קים של 1,000דולר. ההכנסה הממוצעת מכל צ'ק היתה 2,452דולר ,כך שהתגובות שהוזכרו בפתיחה אינן ממש מפתיעות. כאשר שמעתי על Swoopo,הדבר הראשון שעלה על דעתי לא היה רשע טהור ,אלא כלי ניתוח כלכלי עלום בשם תיאוריית שקילות ההכנסה .התיאוריה ,שאותה פיתח זוכה פרס נובל וויליאם ויקרי ,מוכיחה כי כשהנחות מסוימות מתקיימות ,אפשר לצפות שכל המכרזים יגייסו את אותו הסכום .כך אפשר לנהל מכירה פומבית "קלאסית"; מכירה פומבית בסגנון "הצעה יורדת והולכת"; ואף להתעקש שכל משתתף במכרז יעביר את מלוא סכום הכסף שהוא מציע כבר בכניסה .ועדיין ,ויקרי מתעקש שההכנסה הצפויה תהיה תמיד זהה. כדי להבין את העיקרון ,דמיינו מכרז שבו החוק ה"מרושע" קובע כי הזוכה חייב לשלם פי שניים מהסכום שהציע .מובן שבמצב זה כל המשתתפים במכרז פשוט יציעו מחצית הסכום שהתכוונו לשלם .ההצעה הזוכה מוכפלת -והתוצאה הסופית אינה משתנה .תיאוריית שקילות ההכנסה היא הוכחה כללית יותר של רעיון מוכר :חוקים "מרושעים" פשוט מעודדים זהירות יתר אך אינם מכניסים יותר כסף. ועדיין .התיאוריה של ויקרי מניחה הנחות מסוימות ,ואחת מהן היא ,למשל ,שההצעות רציונליות .אתר Swoopoעשוי למשוך ,במקום זאת ,הצעות מטופשות .תאלר בחן 26מכרזים בלבד ,אבל מחקרים אחרים בדקו אלפי מכרזים .מחקר נוסף מצא שמשתתפי מכרז בלתי רציונליים -ואולי פשוט חובבי סיכונים -נוטים להתרכז בקונסולות משחקים .ההצעות במכרזים אחרים נראות רציונליות -ולא מאוד רווחיות. נד אוגנבליק ,מאוניברסיטת סטנפורד ,אסף מידע רב יותר והגיע למסקנה נחרצת :לדעתו ,הפריט המצוי בSwoopo -מגייס הכנסה הגבוהה בכ 50%-ממחירו באמזון .נכון ,אין מדובר בשולי רווח עצומים ,אך ההפרש בכל זאת מרשים. שני המחקרים מסיקים שמכרזים רבים בSwoopo (-ואולי אפילו רובם( אינם רווחיים ,אך האתר מקזז את ההפסדים על-ידי מכרזים אחרים ,רווחיים יותר .ייתכן שהאתר אכן מהווה "פריצה למוח האנושי". אוגנבליק אפילו זיהה באיזה סוג פריצה מדובר :מהלך המנצל את מה שכלכלנים מכנים "שקר העלויות המושקעות" .המשתתפים נשאבים למכרז ,חשים מחוייבים בגלל הצעות שהגישו ,ושעלו להם כבר כסף ,מסרבים לצאת ממנו. רשע טהור? הייתי מצמיד את התואר הזה דווקא למכונות הימורים .אבל אני גם לא מתכוון לשחק באתר Swoopooבקרוב.
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