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Global Economic Briefing:
Central Bank Balance Sheets
Yardeni Research, Inc.
October 14, 2014
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333
aquintana@yardeni.com
Please visit our sites at
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thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Fed Balance Sheet
Fed Assets
Fed Bond Purchases
Federal Reserve Repo Balances
ECB Balance Sheet
Bank of England
Bank of Japan
PBOC Balance Sheet
US Treasuries & Agencies Held by Central Banks
October 14, 2014 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Figure 1.
16
15
TOTAL ASSETS OF MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS
(all in trillions of US dollars)
Sep
Aug
14
13
Total
Assets (14.3)
12
1.5
BOJ
Total (1.3)
1.0
11
10
9
Sep
8
.5
7
Excluding
PBOC (8.9)
6
5
4
.0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
4.8 *Includes US, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and PBOC.
FED
4.4
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
.6
BOE
Aug
Sep
4.0
Total (4.4)
.5
Total (0.5)
3.6
3.2
.4
2.8
2.4
.3
2.0
1.6
.2
2009
4.3
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
ECB
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5.7
PBOC
Aug
4.0
5.2
Total (2.6)
3.7
Total (5.4)
4.7
3.4
4.2
3.1
3.7
2.8
Sep
3.2
2.5
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2.2
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2.7
2015
Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 1 / October 14, 2014 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
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Fed Balance Sheet
Figure 2.
4.5
4.0
FED’S ASSETS*
10/8
(trillion dollars)
5.0
FED’S LIABILITIES*
(trillion dollars)
10/8
4.5
3.5
4.0
3.0
3.5
2.5
3.0
2.0
2.5
US Treasuries +
Agency Debt +
MBS
1.5
2.0
Total
Liquidity Facilities
1.0
1.5
.5
1.0
.0
.5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.7
3.0
10/8
10/8
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.1
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.2
.9
US Treasury Securities
.6
.9
Reserve Balances
with Fed
(Depository Institutions’
Deposits at Fed)
Agency Debt + MBS
.3
.6
.3
.0
.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
.8
1.28
10/8
1.24
1.20
.6
.4
1.16
1.12
Central Bank
Liquidity Swaps
1.08
1.04
Other Loans
1.00
.2
.96
.92
Federal Reserve Notes
.88
10/8
.0
.84
.80
yardeni.com
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
*Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesdays.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
2015
2008
2009
2010
Page 2 / October 14, 2014 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
2011
2012
2013
2014
.76
2015
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Fed Assets
Figure 3.
4.8
4.4
FED’S
ASSETS*
(trillion dollars)
4.8
QE1
QE2
10/8
QE3 & QE4
4.4
4.0
4.0
3.6
Total Assets
3.6
3.2
US Treasuries
+ Agency Debt
+ MBS
3.2
2.8
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.6
1.2
1.2
.8
.8
yardeni.com
.4
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
.4
2015
Note: QE1 (announced 11/25/08) = Fed buys $1.24tn in mortgage securities. QE2 (announced 11/3/10) = Fed buys $600bn in Treasuries.
QE3 (announced 9/13/12) = Fed buys $40bn/month in mortgage securities (to infinity and beyond). QE4 (announced 12/12/12) = Fed buys $45bn/month
in Treasuries. See detailed CHRONOLOGY. http://www.yardeni.com/fedcenter/FedsQuantitativeEasing.aspx
http://www.yardeni.com/fedcenter/FedsQuantitativeEasing.aspx
* Average of daily figures for
weeks ending Wednesday.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Figure 4.
2.6
2.4
FED’S
ASSETS*
(trillion dollars)
2.6
10/8
QE1
QE2
2.4
QE3 & QE4
2.2
2.2
US Treasury
Securities
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.8
Agency Debt +
MBS
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
.8
.8
.6
.6
.4
.4
.2
.2
yardeni.com
.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
.0
2015
Note: QE1 (announced 11/25/08) = Fed buys $1.24tn in mortgage securities. QE2 (announced 11/3/10) = Fed buys $600bn in Treasuries.
QE3 (announced 9/13/12) = Fed buys $40bn/month in mortgage securities (to infinity and beyond). QE4 (announced 12/12/12) = Fed buys $45bn/month
in Treasuries. See detailed CHRONOLOGY. http://www.yardeni.com/fedcenter/FedsQuantitativeEasing.aspx
http://www.yardeni.com/fedcenter/FedsQuantitativeEasing.aspx
* Average of daily figures for
weeks ending Wednesday.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Page 3 / October 14, 2014 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
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Fed Bond Purchases
Figure 5.
300
300
FED NET PURCHASES OF US TREASURY & US AGENCY BONDS + MBS
(monthly change, billion dollars)
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
Sep
0
0
-50
-50
2009
150
50
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
150
FED NET PURCHASES OF US TREASURY BONDS
100
100
50
50
Sep
0
0
-50
-50
2009
200
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
200
FED NET PURCHASES OF US AGENCY BONDS + MBS
150
150
100
100
50
50
Sep
0
0
yardeni.com
-50
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-50
2014
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Page 4 / October 14, 2014 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
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Federal Reserve Repo Balances
Figure 6.
400
400
FEDERAL RESERVE REPO BALANCES
(monthly change, thousands, sa)
300
300
Sep
200
200
100
100
yardeni.com
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
2014
Source: Federal Reserve.
Page 5 / October 14, 2014 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
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ECB Balance Sheet
Figure 7.
3200
3000
2800
TOTAL ASSETS
SELECTED LIABILITIES
(billion euros)
(billion euros)
1400
1200
1000
Euro Area Credit
Institutions in Euro
Deposit Facility
2600
2400
800
600
2200
10/10
2000
400
1800
10/10
1600
200
0
1400
1200
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
200
1350
Liabilities to Other
Euro Area
Residents
in Euro
1250
1150
1050
950
Lending to Euro Area
Credit Institutions in Euro
180
160
140
120
850
750
10/10
650
100
80
550
10/10
60
450
350
40
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
800
1000
10/10
600
Securities of Euro Area
Residents in Euro
10/10
Bank Notes
in Circulation
900
400
800
General Govt Debt
Denominated in Euro
200
700
0
600
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
800
1100
Foreign Reserves
Including Gold
600
Miscellaneous
Liabilities*
1000
900
10/3
800
400
10/10
Claims on Euro Area
Residents in
Foreign Currency
200
600
500
yardeni.com
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
700
2012
2013
2014
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
400
2015
*Total liabilities minus sum of lending to euro area credit institutions in euro, liabilities to other euro area residents in euro, and bank notes in circulation.
Source: European Central Bank.
Page 6 / October 14, 2014 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
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Bank of England
Figure 8.
450
425
400
375
350
325
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
UK: TOTAL ASSETS
350
RESERVE BALANCES
(billion pounds)
Sep
Sep
250
200
150
100
50
75
0
2008
20
300
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
BONDS & OTHER SECURITIES ACQUIRED VIA
MARKET TRANSACTIONS
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
SHORT-TERM OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS
100
80
Sep
15
60
40
10
20
Sep
0
5
2008
200
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
SHORT-TERM OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
150
OTHER LIABILITIES
180
160
140
Short-Term
Open Market Operations
120
100
100
Longer term reverse repo
80
60
Sep
40
50
20
Sep
0
yardeni.com
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
2015
Source: Bank of England.
Page 7 / October 14, 2014 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Bank of Japan
Figure 9.
150
150
JAPAN: RESERVE BALANCES
AT BOJ
Z
Sep
(trillion yen, reserve adjusted)
100
yardeni.com
100
50
50
0
0
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy.
Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy.
Source: Bank of Japan.
Figure 10.
10
10
JAPAN: INTEREST RATES
Z
(percent)
10-Year
Government
Bond Yield
8
8
Bank of Japan
Overnight Rate
6
6
4
4
2
2
10/17
0
-2
0
yardeni.com
89
90
91
-2
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy.
Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy.
Source: Bank of Japan.
Page 8 / October 14, 2014 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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PBOC Balance Sheet
Figure 11.
6.2
5.7
5.2
4.7
4.2
3.7
3.2
PBOC ASSETS
6.2
5.7
5.2
4.7
4.2
3.7
3.2
Aug
(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)
2.7
2.7
2.2
2.2
1.7
1.7
1.2
1.2
.7
.7
Total Assets (5.4)
Foreign Exchange Assets (4.4)
Nongold International Reserves
Held by China (IMF data) (4.0)
yardeni.com
.2
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
.2
2015
Source: People’s Bank of China and IMF.
Figure 12.
85
80
85
PBOC ASSETS
Aug
(percent)
80
Foreign Exchange Held/Total PBOC Assets
75
75
70
70
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
yardeni.com
35
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
35
2015
Source: People’s Bank of China and IMF.
Page 9 / October 14, 2014 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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US Treasuries & Agencies Held by Central Banks
Figure 13.
3400
3200
3400
US TREASURIES HELD BY FED & FOREIGN OFFICIAL ACCOUNTS
3200
(billion dollars)
3000
10/8 3000
2800
2800
2600
Held by Fed
2600
2400
Foreign Official
Dollar Reserves*
2400
2200
2200
2000
2000
1800
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
yardeni.com
400
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
400
2014
* Held by foreign official institutions at the Fed. Average of week ending Wednesday.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Table H.4.1.
Figure 14.
2005
2005
US AGENCIES HELD BY FED & FOREIGN OFFICIAL ACCOUNTS
(billion dollars)
Held by Fed
1505
1505
Foreign Official Dollar Reserves*
1005
1005
505
505
5/14
yardeni.com
5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
5
2014
* Held by foreign official institutions at the Fed. Average of week ending Wednesday.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Table H.4.1.
Page 10 / October 14, 2014 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets
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