BIG FUTURE 2025 VÆKSTSEMINAR 25. JUNI 2014 GLADSAXE OG FREDERICIA VELKOMMEN TIL BIG FUTURE 2025 VÆKSTSEMINAR NIELS DUEDAHL - CEO, SE OG INITIATIVTAGER TIL BIG FUTURE 2025 RASMUS PLOUGMANN - DIREKTØR, SE BIG BLUE ORDSTYRER CARSTEN BECK, FORSKNINGSCHEF INSTITUTTET FOR FREMTIDSFORSKNING BIG FUTURE VÆKSTSEMINAR 25. JUNI 2024 PROGRAM FG 08:00 08:30 Gladsaxe og Fredericia Fredericia Tjek ind og kaffe med croissant Velkomst og introduktion af BIG FUTURE v. Niels Duedahl, CEO SE 08:45 Gladsaxe Megatrends og tendenser v. Carsten Beck, Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning 09:10 Gladsaxe Holdbare forretninger øger værdien mest v. Ditlev Engel 09:45 10:00 Gladsaxe og Fredericia Fredericia Pause og netværk Case: Ardagh Group Sustainability Strategy v. Steffen Seehausen, Group Sustainability Manager, Ardagh Group 10:35 Gladsaxe Case: Carlsberg - Hvor langtidsholdbar er vores forretning? v. Jan Breinholt, VP Procurement Europe, Carlsberg A/S 11:10 11:25 11:50 Gladsaxe og Fredericia Fredericia Fredericia Pause og netværk Holdbar produktivitet v. Steen Hildebrandt, professor Aarhus Universitet Resilience and the organisation v. Jeffery Saunders IFF 12:15 Gladsaxe Opsamling og afrunding v. Carsten Beck, IFF 12:25 Fredericia Tak for i dag v. Niels Duedahl 12:30 Gladsaxe og Fredericia Frokost to go – mulighed for netværk GROUP: BIG FUTURE 2025 WWW.BIGFUTURE.DK SEKRETARIAT@BIGFUTURE.DK MEGATRENDS OG TENDENSER CARSTEN BECK, FORSKNINGSCHEF INSTITUTTET FOR FREMTIDSFORSKNING AGENDA BIG FUTURE 2025 PROCES OUTCOME TRENDS 1. KEY FINDINGS USIKKERHEDER SCENARIE BYGNING KONKLUSION OG ANBEFALING 14/8 8/10 3/12 21/1 11/3 DYBDEINTERVIEW OG NEWSFEED LEDELSESRAPPORT TBD ER VIRKSOMHEDERNE PARATE TIL FREMTIDEN? INDUSTRIES 1991-2001 AND IN 2001-2011 GODMORGEN DANMARK GODMORGEN DANSKERE DET ER NU! MINDSET • GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS INDIVIDUALIZATION GLOBALIZATION COMMERCIALIZATION HEALTH & WELLNESS IMMATERIALISM RESSOURCES MEGATRENDS Drivers for Change ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES DIGITALIZATION IT SOCIETY NETWORK ORGANISATION POPULATION DEVELOPMENT ACCELERATING PACE OF (AGING) CHANGES KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY URBANIZATION 24-HOUR SOCIETY DEN FUNDAMENTALE DRIVKRAFT - OG DET GÅR HURTIGT DET HANDLER OM FORANDRINGER OG VÆKST VI HAR BRUG FOR SCENARIER VIRKSOMHEDERNE SKAL GØRE PLADS TIL FREMTIDEN MULIGHEDER! INDSIGTER FRA VÆKSTPANELET PART 1 I HVOR HØJ GRAD VURDERER DU, AT RESSOURCE-OPTIMERING OG SIKKERHED I FORSYNINGER BLIVER ET VIGTIGT INDSATSOMRÅDE FOR DIN VIRKSOMHED FREM MOD 2025? 38 36 19 5 3 INDSIGTER FRA VÆKSTPANELET PART 2 HVILKE KONKURRENCEPARAMETRE I FORHOLD TIL NUVÆRENDE OG POTENTIELLE KUNDER VIL DU VURDERE SOM DE DOMINERENDE FREM MOD 2025? 47 51 3 18 66 18 34 38 27 7 INDSIGTER FRA VÆKSTPANELET PART 3 HVILKE RAMMEVILKÅR OG TENDENSER I OMVERDENEN VIL DU VURDERE FÅR STØRST BETYDNING FOR DIN VIRKSOMHED FREM MOD 2025? 41 45 12 20 24 41 29 38 9 16 16 38 SPØRGSMÅL? 3 MINUTTER Bemærk, at du efter seminaret vil modtage en email med links til alle slides HOLDBARE FORRETNINGER ØGER VÆRDIEN MEST DITLEV ENGEL FORMAND FOR ADVISORY BOARD, BIG FUTURE 2025 HVAD ER BIG FUTURE 2025? HVORFOR ER BIG FUTURE 2025 RELEVANT FOR DEN ENKELTE VIRKSOMHED? BIG FUTURES VHV MODEL HVORFOR VHV NU? FREMTIDEN • • • • • • Kilde: Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning DEN GLOBALE MIDDELKLASSE - DINE KUNDER • • • Kilde: Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning MANGE DANSKERE ER BANGE FOR FREMTIDEN • • Kilde: Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning – Tidssyn 2014 VHV I RISIKO PERSPEKTIV VHV I RISIKO PERSPEKTIV FØRSTE SPØRGSMÅL TIL ENHVER CEO: AMBITIONEN: BIG FUTURES VHV-CHECKLISTE FRA MIN KRYSTALKUGLE TIL DIN VÆRKTØJSKASSE § SAMMENTÆNK DIN VIRKSOMHEDS VÆRDISKABELSE! MIN DEFINITION PÅ DET GRØNNE § HOLDBARHED HANDLER OM PRODUKTIVITET FREMTIDENS VINDERE - HAR STRATEGIER FOR FLG. 5 HOVEDOMRÅDER: • • • • • Kilde: Oxford Economics § VÆRDISKABELSEN FORØGES MARKANT VED GENTAGELSE AF TRANSAKTIONERNE - BILLIGT OG INTEGRERET DIN VIRKSOMHEDS VÆRDISKABELSE SKAL ALTSÅ KOMME FRA ANDET END SELVE PRODUKTET UDSKIFTNINGSRATEN I FORTUNE 1000 80 % 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1973-1983 1983-1993 1993-2003 2003-2013 Kilde: Nathan Furr, Big Business ... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April 2011 http://www.tlnt.com/2010/07/28/so-long-and-farewell-lon-youre-simply-part-of-the-ceo-trend/ “TESLA TOPS $30 BILLION AS MORGAN STANLEY BOOSTS OUTLOOK” VÆRDISKABELSEN MELLEM GM OG TESLA OMSÆTNING 2013 • GENERAL MOTORS: 155.4 Milliarder USD – Indtjening 8.6 milliarder USD • TESLA: 2 milliarder USD – Tab på 74 millioner USD VÆRDI PÅ BØRSEN • GENERAL MOTORS : 58 milliarder USD • TESLA : 30 milliarder USD Værdiskabelse i VHV-modellen: Unik holdbarhed har en enorm værdi set fra et investorsynspunkt – tænker I sådan hos jer ? ET TESLA-EKSEMPEL PÅ SAMMENTÆNKNING AF FREMADRETTET VÆRDISKABELSE: Kilde Financial Times 23. Juni 2014: Just what has Elon Musk given away? Henry Ford, the grandfather of the car industry and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, its current saviour (or enfant terrible depending on your point of view and stockholding) had similar views on spreading warm and fuzzy love around with rivals. “If everyone is moving forward together, then success takes care of itself,” Ford once said. “A business that makes nothing but money is a poor business,” another Ford pronouncement, is certainly a view shared by Musk – who has said making electric cars successful is more important to him than making his company successful. Many reckon that Musk’s act of generosity will not amount to commercial suicide. Some commentators even think that its a cunning business ploy dressed up as altruism — if everyone copies Tesla’s designs, he can sell them his batteries, which is where the big money is. -“You can’t connect the dots looking forward; You can only connect them looking backwards” KONKLUSION VORES FÆLLES VHV-UDFORDRING skal løses via: SAMMENTÆNKNING I VÆRDIKÆDEN og DIT LEDERSKAB SPØRGSMÅL? 3 MINUTTER Bemærk, at du efter seminaret vil modtage en email med links til alle slides PAUSE Bemærk, at du efter seminaret vil modtage en email med links til alle slides CASE: ARDAGH GROUP SUSTAINABILITY STRATEGY STEFFEN SEEHAUSEN GROUP SUSTAINABILITY MANAGER, ARDAGH GROUP Ardagh Group Sustainability Strategy Big future 2025 vækst seminar 25.06.2014 54 Ardagh Group Overview 55 Our Vision Our vision is to be the preferred packaging partner to the world's leading brands. We will achieve this by: - Delivering customer innovation - Providing an inspirational environment for our people - Creating sustainable value for our business 56 Global Footprint Ardagh Group operates globally through two business segments; Glass and Metal packaging. In both segments, the Group has secured leading positions in the key end markets it serves. Americas 57 Europe Metal 9 Metal 45 Glass 16 Glass 20 Asia Pacific Metal 8 Ardagh Group Footprint Glass Metal GROUP €2.8bn €2.0bn €4.8bn Production Facilities 36 62** 98 Countries 8 23 24 Sales* * Sales including VNA and after divestment ** Including two metal facilities currently under construction in North America 58 Facts & Figures 59 €4.8bn 35 bn 20,000 100 + Group Revenue Containers Employees Locations Worldwide 60 Key Group Customers 61 Sustainability Strategy 62 Global Core Issues - Materials on earth limited - Scarcity for oil based products - Limited availability for clean water - Increasing world population and parallel increased expectations for living standards - Growing energy and material demand - Growing demand for water & food - Aging people - Increasing waste volumes -Global warming -Social Imbalance 63 Specific Drivers for Ardagh Heavily increased expectations from customers • Energy & Emission reduction • Product and process innovation • Social & Ethical control • Product Stewardship Increasing legal requirements • Carbon Emissions reduction • Resource efficiency roadmap • Air quality requirements • Product stewardship requirements • Waste legislation, etc. 64 Specific Drivers for Ardagh Public image • Long term “permit to operate” with stakeholders Enhancing internal processes • Sustainability to drive culture, efficiency, innovation and control Enhancing external governmental & regulatory affairs • Driving position of the Industry • Better responsiveness to legislative changes • Better planning security for the business 65 Strategic Process SWOT Assessment Structures & Programmes Policies (ENV & CSR) Targets Monitoring & Reporting 66 Strategy Elements 67 Example: Ardagh Glass Holmegaard - 68 Founded: Taken over by: Employees: Numbers of furnaces: Annual production: Managememt system: Holmegaard Glasværks 1825 PLM 1997 / Rexam 1999 / Ardagh 2007 320 2 approx. 700 mill. pcs. – 180 t tons ISO 50001 (Energy), ISO 9001, ISO 14001, OHSAS 18001, ISO 22000 Example: Ardagh Glass Holmegaard Community Involvement Project: Waste Gas Heat Recovery – In our process: 3.000 MWh/a • • – Supply to external: 18.000 MWh / a • • • 69 Drying and preheating Room and sanitary heating District heat (1000 homes) Neighbour industries etc. Over 3.000 t CO2 saved (vs. decentralised heating) 70 SPØRGSMÅL? 3 MINUTTER Bemærk, at du efter seminaret vil modtage en email med links til alle slides CASE: HVOR LANGTIDSHOLDBAR ER VORES FORRETNING? JAN BREINHOLT VP PROCUREMENT EUROPE, CARLSBERG A/S Hvor langtidsholdbar er vores forretning? Jan Breinholt, VP Procurement, Carlsberg Group BIG FUTURE Gladsaxe 25 June 2014 Carlsberg Group i dag Nr. 4 Fjerdestørste internationale brygger 500 øl brands 119,7 m hektoliter øl solgt in 2013 100 m flasker per dag 66,6 mia DKK Netto omsætning i 2013 9,8 mia DKK EBIT i 2013 +15% EPS vækst (CAGR) fra 2005 til 2013 74 Udvalgte faktorer der påvirker vores langsigtede bæredygtighed Konkurrenter Ejerstruktur Markeder Brands Produkter Omdømme Emballage Regulering Råvarer Energi & CO2 75 EJERSTRUKTUR: Carlsbergfondet har vist sig at være en styrke Free float Carlsbergfondet 30% af aktiekapitalen 75% af stemmerne 70% af aktiekapitalen 25% af stemmerne Carlsberg A/S Børsnoteret på Nasdaq OMX Copenhagen 100% • Værn mod overtagelse • Ambitiøs og risikovillig Carlsberg Breweries A/S • Køb af Orkla (2004) • Køb af S&N (2008) • Ændring af fundats for at øge kapitalberedskab gennem aktieemmission Datterselskaber 76 KONKURRENCEN: Vi tager del i konsolideringen af den globale ølindustri • Vi ønsker at være en betydende aktør på de markeder, hvor vi har besluttet at være • Det meste af den vestlige verden er fuldt konsolideret – de store lokale bryggerier ejes af en af de fire globale bryggere • To større akkvisitioner: Orkla (2001 and 2004); S&N (2008) 77 MARKEDER: Balance mellem modne markeder og vækstmarkeder Vesteuropa Østeuropa Asien 41 35 24 (2009: 44%) (2009: 13%) 36 17 (2009: 52%) (2009: 7%) Group 2013 % af samlet ølvolumen (2009: 43%) 2013 % af EBIT 47 (2009: 41%) Full year result ended 31 December 2013 78 BRANDS: +500 forskellige brands i Carlsberg Group PRODUKTET: Øl er core – men vi ser på relaterede kategorier 80 OMDØMME: Udfordringer og muligheder for øl-kategorien SANDT TYPISKE OPFATTELSER AF ØL Med til at bringe folk sammen ved uofficielle anledninger, som f.eks. sport VORES MISSION “At skabe en opfattelse af øl som en socialt accepteret, lav-alkoholisk drikkevare, produceret af naturlige råvarer af ansvarlige og dedikerede bryggere” FALSK En unik tørstslukker Lavet med kunstige tilsætningsstoffer – ikke naturligt Har ingen sundhedsfremmende egenskaber – i modsætning til vin 81 REGULERING: Regulering og afgifter er blandt de vigtigste rammevilkår for vores forretning Højere afgifter • Ikke et effektivt redskab til at reducere alkoholmisbrug • Hyppigt brugt som element til at dække budgetunderskud Salgs- og markedsføringsbegrænsninger • Fælles spilleregler afgørende • Strenge interne og industriregulerede standarder sikrer ansvarlig markedsføring • Forbud forhindrer ikke uansvarlig adfærd Pludselige regulatoriske ændringer • Gennemsigtighed og forudsigelighed afgørende • Rusland som eksempel Vi arbejder målrettet med myndigheder og politikere over hele verden 82 RÅVARER: Maltbyg • Maltbyg udgør kun 1% af verdens produktion af kornprodukter • Klimaforandringer har reduceret maltudbyttet • Stigende behov for fødevareproduktion • Voksende forbrug i Asien Strategi • Integration bagud i forsyningskæden • Uddannelse af landbrug i vækstregioner mht. optimal gødning, optimering af udbytte • Udvikling af nye hårdføre bygsorter • Direkte kontakt til landbrug, for at sikre forsyning + sikre bæredygtig produktion, lokalt miljø og lokal økonomi 83 RÅVARER: Vand er en kritisk ressource • Vandmangel er en stigende udfordring – specielt i vores vækstmarkeder • Carlsberg Group gns. 2013: 3,3 liter/liter (best in class) • Stigende produktion => stigende vandforbrug • Løbende reduktion af relativt forbrug IMPROVE EFFICIENCY DEVELOP NEW TECHNOLOGIES RESEARCH NEW VARIETIES WORK WITH OTHERS 84 ENERGI OG CO2: Løbende forbedring af nøgletal • Tilgængelighed og pris på energi vil være konstante udfordringer • Konstant fokus på øget energieffektivitet • Carlsberg er i dag førende blandt de globale bryggere mht. energi- og CO2 effektivitet (kg CO2 / hl) • Konstant pres fra myndigheder og andre stakeholders for at skifte til renere energikilder • Visse vækstmarkeder har i realiteten kun få alternativer til kul i dag IMPROVE EFFICIENCY USE BY-PRODUCTS AS ENERGY SOURCE INVEST IN RENEWABLE ENERGY 85 EMBALLAGE: End-to-end CO2 effekt – emballage tegner sig for 45% 86 Sustainable packaging 87 Cradle to cradle • Cradle to Cradle® konceptet indebærer, at produktet er designet, så materialer kan genbruges i stedet for at blive til affald • Produkter kan indgå enten i en “biosfære” eller en “teknosfære” 88 EMBALLAGE: Samarbejde med udvalgte leverandører mhp. at udvikle næste generation emballage gennem Carlsberg Circular Community Cans Glass bottles Card board Coatings Shrink wrap PET kegs 89 EMBALLAGE: Aluminumsdåser kan genbruges igen og igen… 90 EMBALLAGE: …eller de kan blive til noget andet… 91 Konklusion Konkurrenter Ejerstruktur Markeder Brands Produkter Omdømme Emballage Regulering Råvarer Energi & CO2 92 Læs mere online www.carlsberggroup.com 93 Tak for opmærksomheden 94 SPØRGSMÅL? 3 MINUTTER Bemærk, at du efter seminaret vil modtage en email med links til alle slides PAUSE Bemærk, at du efter seminaret vil modtage en email med links til alle slides HOLDBAR PRODUKTIVITET STEEN HILDEBRANDT PROFESSOR, AARHUS UNIVERSITET SPØRGSMÅL? 3 MINUTTER Bemærk, at du efter seminaret vil modtage en email med links til alle slides RESILIENCE AND THE ORGANIZATION JEFF SAUNDERS HEAD OF STRATEGY AND INNOVATION, COPENHAGEN INSTITUTE FOR FUTURE STUDIES Resilience and the organization Jeffrey Saunders jss@cifs.dk 25 June 2014 At least 70% of the Fortune 1000 will be replaced by 2024 Companies respond by: • Changing workplace strategies continuously • Cutting costs, working longer hours • Seeking protection in networks • Increasing flexibility and shifting assets into managed cash flow through ”freedom from ownership” • Changing to a ”resilience” mindset Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business ... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April 2011 http://www.tlnt.com/2010/07/28/so-long-and-farewell-lon-youre-simply-part-of-the-ceo-trend/; Harvard Business Review’s, Cracking the Code of Change, and Gallup Business Journal’s, Most Change Initiatives Fail – But They Don’t Have To, Resilience requires a new mode of thinking • Looking backwards at your data won’t show ”black swans” or ”tail risks” • Experts are too locked into a certain way of thinking to challenge what they are seeing • Many managers are not competent enough to look beyond data • To have a chance to see disaster coming, you have to look beyond the data, ask challenging questions and be “future savvy” • To act when the unexpected happens, requires leadership and the right organizational culture – it requires resilience Significance Resilience and what kills organizations Resource Availability Political Risk Business Interruption Δ Customer Preference Reputation Competitor Shifts Innovation Technology Shifts Δ Economic Conditions Regulation Terrorism Interest rates Foreign Exchange Hazards Credit Risk Compliance Likelihood Source: Torben Juul Andersen, SRM, 2006 Resilience – the ability to mitigate and bounce back from the impact of shocks The Future of People The Future of Security Resilience The Future of Supply The Future of Supply What are the future resource constraints? The Future of Safety What new safety challenges do new technologies introduce? The Future of Security What are the new challenges and how do we marshal the resources to solve them? The Future of Safety The Future of People How do we develop the right skill-sets and attitudes in our populations? Resilient organizations • Explore: Develop multidisciplinary approach to the study and exploration on a constant basis • Execute: Enact the business plan with upmost efficiency and effectiveness • Engage: Employees and stakeholders in ways that best exemplify organizations’ strategies and need for agility Source: Photo Poptech, Climate Resilience Lab - Nairobi, Kenya, 2012 Approach to resilience will be affected by an organization’s need for strategic agility and position in a value network “Classical Type of strategic agility “Leader” “Adaptive” “Visionary” Characteristics Organization sets goal, defends position Organization can shape industry’s development by placing “big bets” Organization must constantly refine goals and tactics Organizations can affect and be effected by high innovation rates Ability to plan High High Low Low Execution v. agility Execution high, agility low Execution high, agility medium. Must be able to divest quickly and efficiently if “bets” go wrong Agility high. Willing to pay a divestment premium Agility, high risk-taking Approach to leadership Strong managers and hierarchy Strong leader focused on results and teams that compete against each other Employee engagement and collaboration Approaches to resilience Analytical opportunity seeking Brand enhancement, Focus on risk mitigation Analytical opportunity seeking Brand enhancement, desire to be best in class Employee involvement Top-down initiatives meet bottom-up engagement Innovative risk takers Testing, willing to try new arrangements, strong openness to external involvement Partner involvement Focus on untested, groundbreaking solutions Approaches to outsourcing Policy-driven, focus on standardization, efficiency, risk mitigation Analytical, performancebased collaboration, “acquisitional” Team-orientation and interest in ”how” services are delivered Source: CIFS; ISS 2020 Vision: NWOW, 2013, Competing Values Framework, 1990, BCG’s strategic agility, 2012. Partnering, testing, willing to try new arrangements, strong openness to external involvement Making Resilience ‘Smarter’ - Configurable components for calibration (example from military) Cooperation Start with ‘less critical’ functions to begin with; then as system gains momentum, build-up functions, including relating to criteria such as their ‘criticality’. Overcoming obstacles (i) More realistic (lower) level of ambition; (ii) Derive a more credible catalogue of minimum capability requirements --> greater consensus; then these (iii) Serve as an incentive to align priorities with collective (iv) Structurally and culturally, “islands of cooperation” should be developed between organizations with common interests Prioritization Start broadly with general priorities, then over time - as trust, standardised best practices, etc., develops/build up increasingly add narrower, more specific, priorities Specialization (I) - role and task sharing Specialization (II) pooling and sharing (e.g. relating to equipment, assets, etc.) 107 Employees’ innovative abilities Create resilience within your organization – How would you describe your organization? Lush undergrowth and colossus with feet of clay The higher level! Organizational arthritis The management has the employees behind them ... way behind 70% percent of the company doesn’t get when CEO talks strategy and doesn’t care Management’s innovative abilities Source: Model, CIFS. Harvard Business Review’s, Cracking the Code of Change, and Gallup Business Journal’s, Most Change Initiatives Fail – But They Don’t Have To, Harvard Business Review article, “When CEOs Talk Strategy, Is Anyone Listening?” and “When CEOs Talk, 70% of The Company Doesn't Get It.” Resilience and the organization Jeffrey Saunders jss@cifs.dk SPØRGSMÅL? 3 MINUTTER Bemærk, at du efter seminaret vil modtage en email med links til alle slides OPSAMLING & AFRUNDING Bemærk, at du efter seminaret vil modtage en email med links til alle slides TAK FOR I DAG
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