DOE Distribution Transformer Efficiency Regulation Evaluation of Impact on the Industry Carlos Gaytan Manager of Engineering Distribution Transformers April 29, 2008 Agenda Efficiency Calculations Impact on Materials Impact on Manufacturers Impact on Customers Customer Purchasing Practices Outstanding Issues / Concerns Summary and Next Steps 2 proprietary information © Prolec GE Efficiency Calculations Efficiency = Power OUT / Power IN 100 * kVA* 0.5 % EFF kVA* 0.5 (( NL LL * 0.91* 0.52 ) / 1000) Where: %EFF = Efficiency means the ratio of the useful power to the total power input; for DOE Rule it is calculated at 50% Load kVA = Transformer Capacity in kilo Volt Ampere NL = No Load (Core) Losses corrected to 20°C LL = Load Losses corrected to 85°C 0.91 = Load Loss Temperature correction from 85°C to 55°C 3 proprietary information © Prolec GE Efficiency Calculations No Load Loss Impact 25 kVA 1 Phase Designs having the same Total Losses at 100% Load / 85°C 99.20 Efficiency @ 100% Load / 85°C Efficiency @ 50% Load / 55°C NL/LL= 0.182 99.10 DOE Minimum Efficiency Tr ansformer Efficiency (%) 99.00 98.91% 98.90 98.80 100 * kVA* 0.5 % EFF kVA* 0.5 (( NL LL * 0.91* 0.52 ) / 1000) 98.70 98.60 98.50 98.44% 98.40 98.30 98.20 98.10 98.00 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 NL / LL Ratio (85°C) %EFF 100 x kVA x 0.5/[kVA x 0.5 ((NL LL x 0.91 x 0.52 )/1000)] No Load Losses represent a critical portion of the Transformer Efficiency 4 proprietary information © Prolec GE Efficiency Calculations Examples of No Load Loss Impact Two 25 kVA 1-Phase Designs with Same Efficiency at 100% Load are evaluated at 50% load (DOE basis): • Design #1: NL=75W, LL=325W, TL=400W (NL/LL=0.23) % EFF 100 * 25 * 0.5 25 * 0.5 ((75 325 * 0.91* 0.52 ) / 1000) %EFF 98.82% Does Not Meet DOE Rule of 98.91% • Design #2: NL=55W, LL=345W, TL=400W (NL/LL=0.16) 100 * 25 * 0.5 % EFF 25 * 0.5 ((55 345 * 0.91* 0.52 ) / 1000) %EFF 98.94% Meets DOE Rule of 98.91% 5 proprietary information © Prolec GE Efficiency Calculations Load Loss Impact 99.50 25 kVA Single Phase Designs Effic @100% & 85°C Effic. @ 50% & 55 °C 99.30 DOE 99.10 Efficiency 98.90 98.70 98.50 98.30 98.10 97.90 97.70 97.50 Load Losses 6 proprietary information © Prolec GE Efficiency Calculations Efficiency vs Losses Loss Differential for 0.01 Percent Change in Efficiency Single Phase 10 to 833 kVA and Three Phase 15 to 2500 kVA % Reduction of Losses needed for 0.01 increment in Efficiency 2.5 2 1.5 1 Delta (%) 1Ph Delta (%) 3Ph 0.5 0 98.00 98.20 98.40 98.60 98.80 Efficiency 7 99.00 99.20 99.40 99.60 proprietary information © Prolec GE Efficiency Calculations Percent of available designs that meet DOE Rule 60 50 Percent 40 30 20 10 0 10 15 25 37.5 50 75 100 167 kVA Rating Around 50% of present designs available already meet the Efficiency Levels of the DOE Rule 8 proprietary information © Prolec GE Impact on Materials Core Material: • Silicon Steel – M5(12 mil), M4(11 mil), M3 and M0H (9 mil), M2(7 mil) As efficiency of material improves total market volume decreases Worldwide limited supply of Grain Oriented Silicon Steel 5-year cost increase = 65% M3, M2 or better grades will become the most popular for DOE compliance • Amorphous Metal Supply is tight, price flat in last 5 years Not an option for a significant conversion from Silicon Steel Conductor Material: • Copper Wire 5-year cost increase = 240% Preferred material for High Voltage Windings • Aluminum 5-year cost increase = 20% Preferred for LV windings; limited application for HV windings 9 proprietary information © Prolec GE Impact on Materials Published Typical Losses of different Core Materials At 1.5 Tesla / 60 Hz, (except for SA1 which is at 1.3 Tesla) 1.4 1.2 “M3 or Better” Grade Required to Meet DOE M6, 14 mil 1.27 M5 12 mil M4, 11 mil 1 Losses (W/kg) M3, 9 mil M2, 7 mil 1.09 1.00 M0H, 9 mil 0.8 0.89 0.84 0.82 0.6 0.4 SA1 (Amorphous) 1 mil 0.30 0.2 0 1 Core Material 10 proprietary information © Prolec GE Impact on Materials 2007 World Installed Production of Grain Oriented Silicon Steel* EBG/India 0% Viz Stal Russia 17% East Europe 2% NIPPON STEEL Japan 13% JFE Japan 9% Acesita Brazil 2% POSCO S.Korea 12% Allegheny USA 4% AK Steel USA 15% Wuhan/China 13% Cogent/W. Eur. 4% TKES/W. Eur. 12% Total = 2.1 Million (MT) 11 * Data Courtesy of Sumitomo Corporation proprietary information © Prolec GE Impact on Materials 2007 World Installed Production of Hi B Silicon Steel* Posco S. Korea 23% Nippon SC Japan 32% COGENT W. Eur. 1% AK Steel USA 8% JFE Japan 19% TKES/ W. Eur. 17% Total = 0.64 Million (MT) 12 * Data Courtesy of Sumitomo Corporation proprietary information © Prolec GE Impact on Materials World Installed Capacity of Grain Oriented Silicon Steel* Acesita (Thousands of MT) 40 2500 Alsco 90 AKS Russia 320 Other European 2000 40 TKES 90 Baoshang 30 Wuhan 1500 380 304 80 Posco 30 Japan 80 30 80 114 270 330 230 330 230 111 250 160 310 111 1000 110 100 240 250 250 75 120 400 400 400 2004 2005 2006 13 400 200 0 130 0 60 40 200 0 230 500 250 310 410 250 440 0 Year 2007 13 75%+ of Growth in Capacity in Asia; intended for domestic market * Data Courtesy of Sumitomo Corporation Proj 2008 proprietary information © Prolec GE Impact on Manufacturers Manufacturer Key Issues: • Amorphous Material Possible difficulty of access to the technology; limited sourcing options The high level of capital equipment investment required (rendering obsolete a large portion of the equipment used in the liquid-immersed industry, particularly core-cutting equipment and annealing furnaces) • Core steel price volatility and uncertainty • Dimensional and physical constraints Meeting DOE efficiency standard and their customers’ dimensional and physical constraints simultaneously 14 proprietary information © Prolec GE Impact on Manufacturers Manufacturer Key Issues: •Backsliding Market may move from a highly customized market, to a commoditized market Customized designs become less common •Testing Methods and Systems Manufacturing Process capabilities with Max. target Std. Deviation of 4% The bigger the sample size, the closer the mean has to be to the Required Efficiency Test Equipment Accuracy •Design Optimization Customers’ response to DOE Rule Will buyers purchase on Minimum Efficiency only or include a TOC evaluation? Design optimization processes will change in response to purchasing practices 15 proprietary information © Prolec GE Impact on Customers • For this rulemaking, DOE identified rural electric cooperatives and municipal utilities as transformer consumer subgroups that could be disproportionately affected • NRECA commented that standards may encourage some utilities to stop evaluating transformer purchases for efficiency because the small differences between the energy savings and costs of evaluated and standard compliant transformers may no longer justify the cost of performing evaluations • Impact to Customers of DOE efficiency standard will be proportional to their present purchasing practice 16 proprietary information © Prolec GE Impact on Customers DOE Impact on Designs Quoted • For Non-Evaluated Market: Expected Price Increase of 15% to 20% Weight Difference of –5% to +10% • For Mid-Evaluated Segment (e.g., A=$3.00; B=$1.00): Expected Price Increase of 5% to 10% Weight Difference of 0% to +5% • For High-Evaluated Segment (e.g., A>$4.50; B>$1.50): Typical current offerings meet or exceed DOE minimum efficiencies %EFF 100 x kVA x 0.5/[kVA x 0.5 ((NL LL x 0.91 x 0.52 )/1000)] Equivalent A & B factors will be driven by NL/LL ratio to meet DOE Min. Efficiency 17 proprietary information © Prolec GE Customer Purchasing Practices Current Purchasing Practices: • Non-Evaluated Decision based on Lowest Price meeting ANSI/IEEE Standards Leads to Low Efficiencies • Total Owning Cost (TOC) Loss Evaluation TOC = (NL × A) + (LL × B) + Price where: o TOC = total owning cost ($), o NL = no-load loss (Watts), o A = equivalent first-cost of no-load losses ($/Watt), o LL = load loss at the transformer’s rated load (Watts), o B = equivalent first-cost of load losses ($/Watt), and o Price = bid price (retail price)($). TOC with Band of Equivalence (BoE) • Efficiency Standards Evolution Energy Star ® NEMA TP 1 18 proprietary information © Prolec GE Customer Purchasing Practices TOC and Band of Equivalence (BoE) Concepts $ Cost of Losses Transformer Cost Total Owning Cost 3% BoE A higher TOC due to a 3% BoE, leads us to a ... Lowest TOC Design ... lower First Cost Transformer, roughly 4-6% $ $ ~4 - 6 % lower First Cost Total Losses 19 proprietary information © Prolec GE Customer Purchasing Practices Purchasing Practices in a DOE Rule environment: • For Non-Evaluated Segment: DOE Min. Efficiency will result in lower loss designs Purchase on lowest price from compliant bids? • For Mid-Evaluated Segment (e.g., A=$3.00; B=$1.00): DOE Min. Efficiency will typically result in lower loss design Purchase Lowest Price only, or TOC, or TOC with BoE? • For High-Evaluated Segment (e.g., A>$4.50; B>$1.50): Some DOE designs could result in less efficient, higher TOC units Customers may choose to continue with TOC evaluations 20 proprietary information © Prolec GE Outstanding Issues / Concerns • Multiple winding connections Dual Voltage 120/240 V on the secondary. • Efficiency must be measured on the winding connection that produces the highest losses. • This requirement imposes a significant additional burden on manufacturers 21 proprietary information © Prolec GE Summary and Next Steps From a Manufacturer’s Perspective: • Understand how customers will purchase in a DOE standards environment • Impact on Design Optimization Programs based on minimum efficiency and lowest material cost • Review of standard materials • Impact of global supply chain • Flexibility of manufacturing and test processes • IEEE Transformer Committee – assess impact on total industry 22 proprietary information © Prolec GE Thank You! Carlos Gaytan Manager of Engineering Distribution Transformers Email: carlos.gaytan@ge.com April 29, 2008 23 proprietary information © Prolec GE Bibliography. 10 CFR 431 Part III Energy Conservation Program for Commercial Equipment: Distribution Transformers Energy Conservation Standards; Final Rule. Issued Oct 12, 2007 10 CFR 431 Part III Energy Conservation Program for Commercial Equipment: Test Procedures for Distribution Transformers; Final Rule. Issued Apr 27, 2006 EERE Appliances and Commercial Equipment Standards, Distribution Transformers Web Page, last consulted on 12th Feb 2008. http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/distribution_transformers. html EERE Appliances and Commercial Equipment Standards, Technical Supporting Documentation for Final Rule (Distribution Transformers) http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/distribution_transformers _fr_tsd.html AK Steel Product Catalog, 2007 Personal communications with NEMA. Report on Global Production of Silicon Steel by Sumitomo Corporation 24 proprietary information © Prolec GE
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