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BDT MONTHLY TECHNICAL REPORT
7 November 2014
CURRENCY MARKETS
US DOLLAR INDEX
The long term view on the US Dollar remains bullish against the major currencies. After
breaking out of a first major retracement at the end of October, the upward move has pushed
through the first resistance at 88.0 and now targets 89.0, previous all-time high, last seen in
2010. Trend indicators are bullish. The recent retracement area has now become a formidable
support are.
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USDZAR
The USDZAR remains low inside the upward sloping channel, so this chart has plenty upside
potential within the channel. First resistance is found at around 11.38. I expect resistance at
11.38 to be challenged during November. Major trend line support is found around 10.90.
CBOT CORN
Dec14Corn is expected to trade within the 360 – 380 price band at least until Options close-out
on the 21st of November. We may even have a brief push up to 395 during November. The
upward trend witnessed during October has one more upward leg to go before reaching
maturity. I expect this market to edge higher until the end of November, but expect weakness to
follow going into December.
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CBOT HARD RED WINTER WHEAT
Dec14HRW remains bearish at the start of November, but resistance at 600 is of huge interest.
A breach of this level during November will trigger buying interest which could lift this contract
by $1 a bushel targeting levels around 700. I would adopt a neutral view on this contract during
November.
CBOT SOYBEANS
Nov14Soybeans is targeting resistance at 1055. This contract will find solid overhead
resistance in the 1055 – 1100 area. I expect this contract to enter this reistance area during
November, but a reversal will follow towards the end of the month going into December.
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CBOT SOY MEAL
Dec14Soy Meal experienced an unusual blow-out in October due to serious supply issues. I
expect to see the retracement to continue during the first half of November targeting lower
levels around 350 (50% retracement), maybe even the 340 level. This contract finds comfort
around the 350 level.
SOUTH AFRICAN FUTURES EXCHANGE
DEC14WM
Dec14WM is in an upward leg early November. I expect this contract to gravitate towards the
2000 level during November. Heavy resistance is found around 2000. I would however caution
against a possible sell-off to follow the current 5th and final leg of this upward trend. Such a selloff is expected towards the end of the month and may retrace back to major support found at
around 1700.
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SAFEX DEC14 YM
Dec14YM is in an upward sloping channel and is busy developing the 5 th and final leg of the
current upward market. The 2050 level is in sight and a 2100 is possible.
SAFEX DEC14 WHEAT
The Dec14Wheat contract shows long term trend support at 3500 and then subsequent support
/ resistance levels at 3600, 3690 and 3870. During October the red resistance level at 3690 is
of interest as well as the rising trend support line now found at around 3660. At this point the
bullish bias is hanging on a thread. A drop through support at 3660 will be confirmed by a close
below 3650 during the early part of October and will then bring the 3500 level into view.
SAFEX DEC14SOYABEANS
Dec14Soyabeans is high inside a downward sloping channel. Channel resistance is found
around 5250. Another downward leg is expected before this bear market reaches maturity.
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SAFEX SUNFLOWERSEED
The SUNS continuous graph is shown below. The Long term upward trend remains intact since
being tested in early September. A drop below long term support at around 4200 will be
significant.
The next graph focuses on the Dec14SUNs contract. Here we see two major downward legs
within the bear channel. Another downward leg targeting the bottom end of the channel is
possible during October before maturity of the bear market is reached. Solid support is found
around 4200. A breach of resistance at 4600 will confirm an end to the bear market and will
attract technical buying interest. At this stage the upward leg within the channel is intact and the
short term technical picture remains bullish. Short term trend support is found at around 4500.
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P a g e |7
Market Report prepared by Johann Reinecke
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