Kenneth Karlsson Systems Analysis Division
Kenneth Karlsson Systems Analysis Division DTU Management Engineering Journalist seminar 6/10-2015 DTU historie Establishment Lyngby Campus 1829 1962 Den Polytekniske Læreanstalt 1974 Autonomy & mergers 1994 1995 2001 2007 2013 Relocation initiated DTU Act & autonomy HC Ørsted Chemistry Øster Voldgade Inauguration of new campus Merger with: Danish National Space Center Danish Institute for Food and Veterinary Research Danish Institute for Fisheries Research Mech. Eng. Sølvgade Merger with DIA Danish Transport Research Institute 2 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark DTU Management Engineering DTU Business UNEP DTU Partnership Management Science Quantitative Sustainability Assessment Systems Analysis Production and Service Management Technology & Innovation Management Administration Head of Department & Deputy Head of Department 3 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark System Analysis Division ■ Energy Systems Analysis (ESY) ■ ■ ■ ■ Poul Erik Morthorst Global and regional energy system optimisation models (all sectors) Integration of intermittent renewables in energy systems GIS prepossessing tools Quantitative scenario analysis Kenneth Karlsson ■ Energy Economics and Regulation (EER) ■ Analyses of regulatory frameworks and market designs that facilitate the ■ ■ ■ transition towards larger share of renewable energy in the energy system, energy savings, and climate change Coupling of markets and flexibility options Economic and social aspects of wind integration Demand behaviour based on technical/economic or econometric models Klaus Skytte ■ Climate Change and Sustainable Development ■ Integrated analyses of climate change mitigation options, renewable ■ ■ ■ 4 energy deployment, bio-economy and smart cities Behavioural and institutional drivers of investments in energy savings Improving modelling of regional climate change and extreme events Decision making tools for climate change impacts and adaptation DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Simon Bolwig Overskrifter ■ Fremtidens energisystem er stærkt integreret og kobler el, gas, brændsel, fjernvarmesystemer og lagre ■ Er el-forsyningssikkerheden i Danmark truet? ■ Vind er den billigste måde at producere el på i Danmark ■ Et 100% VE baseret energisystem i Danmark og Norden er realistisk uden væsentlige ekstra omkostninger for samfundet (Klimakommissionen, IDA2050, CEESA, NETP, etc….) ■ Nordisk og Europæisk samarbejde inden for energiforskning ■ Klimaeffekter og tilpasning ■ Energibesparelser 5 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Fremtidens energisystem er integreret 6 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Forsyningssikkerhed 7 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark El transmissionsforbindelser 8 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Transmissionsledninger som back-up 9 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Fælles metode til beregning af forsyningssikkerhed (SISYFOS) 10 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Landvind er billigst ! Energistyrelsen 1. juli 2014 (marts 2015) J.nr. 4005/4007-0015 Klima og energiøkonomi Ref: RIN/JLUN 11 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Beregning i energisystemmodellen TIMES-DTU Basis scenario (uden afgifter) Basis scenario (med afgifter) 12 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark "Wind 2050": Håndtering af kontroverser omkring vindkraft http://www.wind2050.dk/ 13 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark TIMES-DK/DTU (klar til brug sidst i oktober 2015) DTU E4SMA DEA IntERACT is funded in the Danish Energy Agreement and is housed by the Danish Energy Agency (DEA): http://www.ens.dk/en/info/facts-figures/scenariosanalyses-models/models/interact 14 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark DEA Ny model for Danmark Finland Two versions: Norway Sweden Germany 15 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark TIMES-DK stand-alone All power trade are modelled with exogenous price profiles for each region (except DK East and DK West) TIMES-NordPool Same as in TIMES-DK stand-alone except that the power supply system are modelled for Norway, Finland and Sweden thus given endogenous investments and power prices in these regions TIMES-DTU/DK: Modelstruktur 16 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Resultater for alle sektorer på en gang 17 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Nordisk Samarbejde NETP2013 og NETP2016 18 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark NETP - andel af CO2 udledt pr. produceret el 19 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Flowdiagram fra NETP2013 20 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark 21 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Analyse set up i NETP2016 IEA beregninger VTT i Finland DTU og Ea Energianalyse 22 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Balmorelmodellen ■ • • • Balmorel model Power and district heating Programmed in GAMS Least cost optimisation based on framework conditions ■ Optimises • Dispatch of power plants • Investments • Generation capacity • Transmission capacity • Storage ■ Geographical scope • Nordics and Baltic sea region + third countries 23 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Timesimuleringer med Balmorel Operation of the Nordic power system during two weeks with high wind penetration in autumn for 2030. 24 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Timesimuleringer med Balmorel Import (positive) and export (negative) to the Nordic power system during two weeks with high wind penetration in autumn for 2030. 25 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark TOP-NEST Energi til Bæredygtig Vejtransport i de Nordiske Lande 26 Elbiler og energisystemet ■ Politikker som tilgodeser elbilbrugere i den daglige mobilitet, f.eks. gratis parkering og brug af busbaner kan fremme brugen af elbiler ■ Et CO2-baseret afgiftssystem vil tilgodese elbiler ; langtrækkende politikker på elbilområdet efterspørges af branchen så investeringsrisici mindskes ■ En høj andel af elbiler vil reducere de samfundsøkonomiske omkostninger ved omstilling til et CO2 neutralt energi system (ift. baseline) ■ Elbiler kan bidrage til at balancere den variable produktion af vedvarende energi med elforbruget, men ikke så meget som hydrogenbiler 27 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Nyregistrerede elbiler i Norge Hydrogenbiler og energisystemet ■ En høj andel af hydrogenbiler kan bidrage til det fleksible energisystem og dermed en høj andel af fluktuerende, vedvarende energiformer ■ Men det kræver store investeringer i ny produktionskapacitet for electriciet fordi produktionen af H2 skaber øget efterspørgsel efter el (ift. andre scenarier - hhv høj andel af el og blandede teknologier) ■ Det er vigtigere at opnå en høj efficiens af H2 produktionen (blå linje) end at reducere investeringsomkostninger i H2 produktionsapparatet (rød linje) ■ Innovationsindsatser frem til 2050 bør fokusere på efficens 28 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Flex4RES Flexibility for Variable Renewable Energy Integration in the Nordic Energy System Integrating a high share of variable renewable energy through enhanced energy market interaction Identify and assess regulatory and technical pathways towards coherent Nordic energy systems in 2050 based on strong interaction between different energy markets that ensure resilience, sustainability and efficiency. Nordic Energy Research Flagship project September 2015 - March 2019 29 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark SHIFT -Sustainable Horizons in Future Transport 30 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark WP0 Management and dissemination WP1 Transport Demand, behavior and modal shift (congestion, modal choice, passenger, freight) Passenger and freight transport demand on modes Travel distance and time, no. of trips User interface Post Doc 1 Post Doc 2 User costs for transport technologies Available future transport technologies Transport demand divided on distance and modes (pkm, tkm) Accepted travel time Fuel chain costs, fuel prices Transport technology mix (fuel type, efficiency etc.) TIMES-DK Policy measures and targets Technology assessment Evaluation of scenario results Policies Assumptions Results Soft-Link of models Advanced transport module PhD 1 Participatory methods LTM Infra Structure and planning Investments in infrastructure WP4 Stakeholder involvement Frame work conditions (fuel prices, resources) Technology databases (biofuel production etc.) Translating assumptions to model variables Iterating modelling system until convergence WP3 (power, heat, industry, Fuel production PhD 2 buildings, transport) PhD 3 and transport WP2 TIMES-DK energy system model with pathways advanced transport module 31 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Fuel production technologies www.COMETSproject.dk Betyder det noget at Danmark har været i front på VE, marked og fjernvarme? 32 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Cooperation on RES support auctions AURES: Auctions for Renewable Energy Support: Effective use and efficient implementation options 3-year H2020 project, 8 partners from 7 EU countries, 1.6mEUR, DTU is coordinator Cases on future RES support auction implementations 5 cases 5-7 meetings per case 4 regional workshops policy making support right where it happens joint analysis on pressing issues knowledge generation about processes 33 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark EU-projekt om fjernvarme http://www.progressheat.eu/ 34 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark REEEM - Role of technologies in an energy efficient economy – model-based analysis of policy measures and transformation pathways to a sustainable energy system 35 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Kobling af EU energiunion og SET plan 36 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Climate change adaptation & mitigation ■ Planning for adaptation & mitigation should ■ ■ ■ ■ Take a holistic and integrated approach Consider the full range of factors/uncertai nties e.g. ■ Climate projections/scenarios ■ Land-use, socio-economic conditions ■ Impacts / damage assessment ■ Behavioural aspects: Risk aversion ■ Economics e.g. discounting ■ Adaptation and mitigation options … Explore benefits and co-benefits Be robust Damage model Climate + 37 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Climate + damage + … = Energibesparelser ■ SAVE-E projekt ■ Adfærd ■ barrierer ■ Demand response ■ Forbrugsprofiler og hvordan de kan påvirkes ■ Bygningsmodeller - hvor er det billigst at lave varmebesparelser? 38 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Coupled regional modelling tools Novel regional earth system modelling tools are needed ■ to assess the impacts of climate change e.g. extreme events at the temporal and spatial scales relevant to decision-makers and engineers ■ to understand the critical links and interactions (nexus) between climate, water, land use and society e.g. ■ access to water for power production ■ links between water use and energy/agriculture (e.g., water for irrigation of biofuels) ■ availability of drinking water One-way Two-way Regional climate model Distributed hydrology model Human and natural systems 39 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark Land surface model Tak for opmærksomheden Kenneth Karlsson Seniorforsker Gruppeleder Energisystemanalyse Afdelingen for Systemanalyse DTU Management Engineering Produktionstorvet Bygning 426 2800 Kongens Lyngby Telefon: +45 21328733 Mail: keka@dtu.dk 40 DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
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