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R B C W E A LT H M A N A G E M E N T
GLOBAL INSIGHT
W E E K L Y
N OV E M B E R 1 4 , 2 0 1 4
A C LO S E R LO O K
Tech: Out With the Old, In With the New
Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco
Companies that dominate the technology sector in coming years may be quite different than the
companies that led just a few years ago. Investors should align portfolios accordingly.
Seismic shifts are occurring within the global technology
sector. It is transitioning from a PC-centric world (“old tech”)
to a mobile- and cloud-centric world (“new tech”).
The Coming Surge in Mobile Data Traffic
Is Transforming the Technology Sector
Forecast Global Mobile Data Traffic in Exabytes (1 EB = 1 Billion Gigabytes)
This is upending not only how we communicate and consume
information, but also is changing the composition of the tech
sector.
200
For more than two decades, the sector has been dominated
by companies geared toward PCs. But as the PC market share
dwindled from 83% of the personal device market in 2006 to
33% in 2013 (and dropping), many of those companies have
become laggards.
120
On the other side, companies geared toward “new tech”—
mobile data (including video), innovative personal devices, big
data, and cloud computing—are fast becoming the leaders.
Many “new tech” firms will likely benefit from the explosion in
global mobile data traffic that is expected to occur within this
decade. While it should surge roughly 70% from 2013 to 2014,
it could skyrocket more than 900% by 2018 (see chart).
With that data surge and advancements in other emerging
tech areas, we expect creative destruction to rear its head.
Companies that aren’t positioned properly—those still aligned
with the “old tech” PC-centric world—should find their growth
rates and relevance diminished.
Click here for authors’ contact information.
For Important Disclosures, see page 6.
180
190.3
160
140
129.7
100
80
84.0
60
40
20
0
52.2
17.9
2013
31.1
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Source - RBC Capital Markets, Cisco VNI Report (2014). Data includes mobile video streaming.
M A R K ET P U L S E
3
U.S. M&A headed for a record-breaking year?
3
Time for caution with Canadian preferred shares
3
Euro area GDP growth inches its way back
4
Does Shinzo Abe have a trick up his sleeve?
Adjust Portfolios Toward “New Tech”
This certainly has major implications for investment
portfolios.
RBC Capital Markets LLC Chief U.S. Market Strategist Jonathan
Golub believes it’s important for investors to distinguish
between “old” and “new” tech stocks. He is “quite positive on
new tech and new economy companies” and would bias tech
holdings in portfolios toward these types of stocks.
Specifically, he favors companies that are well-positioned to
capitalize on advancements in the following subsectors: data
storage, devices, Internet, semiconductors, and software.
Cloud software plays seem particularly attractive considering
growth in cloud center data traffic is expected to greatly exceed
non-cloud traffic (see chart).
Cloud Data Center Traffic Is Expected
to Grow Faster Than Non-Cloud Traffic
Global Data Traffic in Zettabytes (1 ZB = 1 Trillion Gigabytes)
Cloud Traffic
Non-Cloud Traffic
5.3
4.2
3.2
2.4
1.8
1.2
1.4
2012
1.6
2013E
1.8
2014E
2.2
2.0
2015E
2016E
2.4
2017E
Source - RBC Capital Markets, Gartner
We believe it’s prudent to scrutinize tech holdings within
portfolios and align them more toward “new tech” to take
advantage of these seismic shifts. In our view, “new tech”
stocks seem positioned to outperform over the longer term,
while “old tech” stocks are at risk of underperforming or
languishing.
W H AT ’ S M O V I N G M A R K ET S
Keep an Eye on Russia and Ukraine
The oil market continues to inflict pain on energy investors.
As WTI and Brent crude oil fell roughly 4% for the week, the
U.S. and Canadian energy sectors declined 2.0% and 1.5%,
respectively.
Uncertainty about whether OPEC will cut production at its
November 27 meeting weighed on the oil market, as did Mexico’s
disclosure it has hedged 2015 production at $76.40/bbl.
RBC Capital Markets LLC Technical Analyst Bob Dickey believes
it could take months or quarters for energy stocks to bottom and
form a base that would provide a timely buying opportunity.
Separately, ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine
are on our radar. Skirmishes between the Novorossiya (antiKiev) army and Ukrainian forces have occurred almost daily
in eastern Ukraine since the so-called ceasefire agreement in
early September. The Russian and Ukrainian currencies have
been hit hard as more market participants come to realize the
strife is unlikely to end anytime soon (see chart).
Recent Tensions Between Russia and Ukraine
Have Pressured Their Currencies Further
YTD % Change in Currencies vs. the U.S. Dollar
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
Russian Ruble
-45%
-50%
Ukrainian Hryvnia
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 11/13/14
This conflict could create volatility for global equity markets
if: (1) a full-throttle civil war resumes, (2) tit-for-tat sanctions
escalate, or (3) Russia’s financial strains mount.
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
November 14, 2014
2
Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco; Alana Awad – Toronto
■
■
■
■
Merger & acquisition (M&A) activity picked up as Warren
Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway agreed to buy Procter &
Gamble’s Duracell battery unit in a stock swap valued at
$4.7B. Also, news agencies reported preliminary merger
discussions between oil services giants Halliburton and
Baker Hughes and between toy company Hasbro and
motion picture firm DreamWorks.
U.S. M&A volume has surged 57% versus last year to
$1.77T. Year-end deals could push the total above the $1.84T
all-time high reached in 2007. We view this as a sign that
corporate boards have confidence in the economy. On a
sector basis, consumer non-cyclicals, communications, and
energy have recorded the highest volume levels so far this
year.
In fixed income, as oil prices have dropped in recent
months, we have seen the relative spread on U.S. dollar
high yield energy names move significantly wider
compared to the broader high yield market. On average,
high yield energy names currently trade roughly 200 basis
points (bps) wider than the overall market compared to a
year-to-date average of 77 bps (see chart).
U.S. High Yield Energy Sector Spread vs. U.S. High Yield Spread
705
105
655
100
605
199 bps
555
95
spread
90
505
46 bps
spread
455
Price ($)
■
The U.S. equity market has a pre-holiday feel to it
even though the holidays are still weeks away. Volume is
subdued, the Q3 earnings season is largely over, and market
participants are searching for catalysts. Furthermore,
following the S&P 500’s 9.5% surge since the mid-October
low, sentiment is complacent.
Energy High Yield Names Trade Much Wider Than the Market
Spread (bps)
U N I T E D S T AT E S
85
405
80
355
305
Jul 2014
Aug 2014
Sep 2014
Oct 2014
Nov 2014
75
Crude Oil (right axis)
US High Yield Index Spread (left axis)
US High Yield Energy Index Spread (left axis)
Source - RBC Dominion Securities, Bloomberg; data through 11/13/14
has been challenged by the number of moving parts on the
story and uncertainty with respect to how lower interchange
fees will impact the company.
■
Bond investors are struggling to balance decent North
American data with the uncertainty of the eurozone,
Japanese, and Chinese economies. The 5- to 30-year
component of the Government of Canada curve traded
marginally higher by 2–3 bps. The Canadian dollar
recovered from its 5-year low, strengthening by CA$0.01.
■
The Canadian Preferred Share Total Return Index
continues to touch new highs and we worry that valuations
are looking stretched. Investors should hold high coupon
perpetual preferred shares as the large dividend would
likely cushion losses should the market correct. Be wary
of securities trading at a large premium to the call price
as issuers are beginning to redeem higher coupon issues.
Patient investors that refrain from adding exposure to this
market may be rewarded as a correction could emerge.
Entry into the high yield energy space should be made
with caution. The possibility for further spread widening
is likely if oil prices remain low or decline further. Investors
should look for specific instances of oversold, higher-quality
names for investment opportunities.
CANADA
Patrick McAllister & Eric Lafortune – Toronto
■
■
The S&P/TSX Composite continued to edge higher and
now sits roughly 8% above the low ebb of the September–
October correction. While the materials and energy subindexes are over 15% and 20% below their 52-week highs,
respectively, the balance of the 10 sector sub-indexes are
generally within 2% of their respective highs.
Shares in Aimia lagged after management delivered
preliminary 2015 guidance that disappointed investors
who were hoping for higher growth from the company’s
core Aeroplan platform. Visibility on normalized earnings
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
EUROPE
Frédérique Carrier & Davide Boglietti – London
■
European equity markets finished the week in positive
territory, but close to the previous week’s levels. The STOXX
Europe 600 increased 0.1% to 335.63. The uncertain
outlook for commodity prices was again the main reason
for the energy and commodity sectors’ poor performance
and their negative contribution to the market’s
performance. The telecom sector was the best performer,
thanks to better-than-expected results from Vodafone in
November 14, 2014
3
most of the European countries where it operates. Other
defensive sectors, including health care, outperformed the
market.
■
■
Germany and France Move Back to Positive QoQ GDP Growth;
Eurozone Grows by 0.2%
Quarter-Over-Quarter % Change in GDP Growth
Euro area GDP increased by 0.2% q/q in Q3, better than the
0.1% the market expected. Mixed trends were again seen
among eurozone countries. The main positive news came
from France, where the economy increased by 0.3% q/q.
This was predominantly due to higher public consumption,
while investments and consumer demand remained
anaemic. Germany avoided recession, with growth of 0.1%
q/q, while Italy was confirmed to be back in technical
recession after the economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in Q3
on the heels of a decline of 0.2% in Q2.
Mark Carney, Bank of England (BoE) governor, presented
weak forecasts for U.K. inflation in the BoE’s quarterly
report. Falling commodity prices and cheaper imports have
continued to depress inflation figures that could probably
fall below 1% in the next six months before creeping up
to the 2% target the BoE hopes to reach by the end of the
forecast period in 2017.
0.3
■
Japanese stocks, benefitting recently from a further selloff in the yen, which has been remarkably weak against
the dollar, received a somewhat unexpected boost on
unconfirmed reports that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may
call a snap election in December, two years earlier than
his current term is due to end. If so, this might be a move
to extend his mandate while his popularity rating remains
relatively high. One reason for the positive equity reaction
was a report that another hike in Japan’s sales tax may be
postponed to 2017. The tax was raised earlier in the year to
8% from 5%.
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
0.2
Q4 2013
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Q1 2014
-0.2
Q2 2014
-0.1
Q3 2014
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg
■
China’s economic growth target, currently at 7.5%, may
be set to a lower level in 2015. Reports suggest the central
leading group for financial and economic affairs has discussed
targets of 7%, 7.3%, and 7.5%. Data for October showed a
slower economy. Industrial production rose by 7.7% y/y,
among the lowest readings since 2009. China Development
Bank forecast the economy to grow by 7.4% in 2014.
■
South Korea kept its benchmark rate at 2%, having lowered
the rate in August and October. The competitiveness of the
country’s exports has been undermined by the persistent
weakness of the yen. Indonesia kept its benchmark rate at
7.5% in the central bank’s first decision since President Joko
Widodo took office.
■
Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher
Kent noted that Fed tightening may result in “a further
depreciation of the Australian dollar, which remains above
most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given
the substantial declines in commodity prices.” However, he
also noted that “growth will continue to be a bit below trend
for a time, picking up gradually to be a bit above trend pace
by 2016.”
Jay Roberts – Hong Kong
Asian equities rose during the week. The MSCI AC Asia
Pacific Index has recovered approximately half of the
losses incurred during the steep sell-off in September and
early October. The index is flat for the year.
0.4
0 0
A S I A PA C I F I C
■
Eurozone
Germany
France
Italy
Q3 2014 Street Consensus
0.8
November 14, 2014
4
M A R K ET S C O R E C A R D
Data as of November 14, 2014
Equities (local currency)
Level
S&P 500
1 Week
MTD
YTD
12 Mos
Govt Bonds (bps chg)
Yield
1 Week
MTD
YTD
12 Mos
2,039.82
0.4%
1.1%
10.4%
13.9%
U.S. 2-Yr Tsy
0.512%
1.3
2.1
13.2
22.2
17,634.74
0.3%
1.4%
6.4%
11.1%
U.S. 10-Yr Tsy
2.319%
2.1
-1.7
-71.0
-37.1
NASDAQ
4,688.54
1.2%
1.2%
12.3%
18.0%
Canada 2-Yr
1.011%
-0.9
-1.2
-12.6
-9.5
Russell 2000
1,173.80
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
5.6%
Canada 10-Yr
2.036%
0.9
-1.2
-72.2
-51.8
S&P/TSX Comp
14,843.10
1.0%
1.6%
9.0%
10.5%
U.K. 2-Yr
0.565%
-7.2
-9.0
0.1
12.1
FTSE All Share
3,555.51
1.3%
1.5%
-1.5%
0.2%
U.K. 10-Yr
2.116%
-8.6
-13.1
-90.6
-63.9
Dow Industrials (DJIA)
STOXX Europe 600
335.63
0.1%
-0.3%
2.2%
4.1%
Germany 2-Yr
-0.043%
1.7
1.3
-25.6
-14.8
9,252.94
-0.4%
-0.8%
-3.1%
1.1%
Germany 10-Yr
0.785%
-3.2
-5.6
-114.4
-91.6
24,087.38
2.3%
0.4%
3.4%
6.4%
2,478.82
2.5%
2.4%
17.1%
18.0%
Nikkei 225
17,490.83
3.6%
6.6%
7.4%
17.6%
India Sensex
28,046.66
0.6%
0.6%
32.5%
37.5%
3,315.67
0.9%
1.3%
4.7%
3.9%
Brazil Ibovespa
51,772.40
-2.7%
-5.2%
0.5%
-3.1%
Mexican Bolsa IPC
43,372.01
-2.8%
-3.7%
-15.8%
7.6%
Commodities (USD)
Price
German DAX
Hang Seng
Shanghai Comp
Singapore Straits Times
Gold (spot $/oz)
MTD
YTD
12 Mos
Rate
U.S. Dollar Index
87.53
1 Week
MTD
YTD
12 Mos
-0.1%
0.7%
9.4%
8.0%
CAD/USD
0.89
0.4%
-0.1%
-5.8%
-7.2%
USD/CAD
1.13
-0.4%
0.2%
6.2%
7.8%
EUR/USD
1.25
0.6%
0.0%
-8.9%
-6.9%
GBP/USD
1.57
-1.2%
-2.0%
-5.3%
-2.5%
AUD/USD
0.88
1.3%
-0.5%
-1.9%
-6.1%
USD/CHF
0.96
-0.7%
-0.4%
7.4%
4.6%
1,189.23
1.0%
1.3%
-1.4%
-7.6%
USD/JPY
116.24
1.4%
3.5%
10.4%
16.2%
16.31
3.3%
0.9%
-16.2%
-21.5%
EUR/JPY
145.60
2.0%
3.5%
0.6%
8.2%
Silver (spot $/oz)
Copper ($/ton)
1 Week
Currencies
6,724.50
-1.0%
-0.5%
-8.8%
-3.8%
EUR/GBP
0.80
1.8%
2.1%
-3.7%
-4.6%
Oil (WTI spot/bbl)
75.82
-3.6%
-5.9%
-23.0%
-19.1%
EUR/CHF
1.20
-0.2%
-0.4%
-2.1%
-2.6%
Oil (Brent spot/bbl)
79.65
-4.5%
-7.2%
-28.1%
-26.6%
USD/SGD
1.30
0.6%
0.9%
2.7%
3.9%
4.06
-7.9%
4.9%
-3.9%
12.7%
USD/CNY
6.13
0.1%
0.3%
1.3%
0.6%
325.37
4.2%
2.1%
-7.5%
-10.6%
USD/BRL
2.60
1.7%
5.0%
10.1%
12.4%
Natural Gas ($/mmBtu)
Agriculture Index
Source - Bloomberg. Note: Equity returns do not include dividends, except for the German DAX. Bond yields in local currencies. Copper and Agriculture Index data as of Thursday’s close.
Dollar Index measures USD vs. six major currencies. Currency rates reflect market convention (CAD/USD is the exception). Currency returns quoted in terms of the first currency in each
pairing. Data as of 9:34 pm GMT 11/14/14.
Examples of how to interpret currency data: CAD/USD 0.89 means 1 Canadian dollar will buy 0.89 U.S. dollar. CAD/USD -7.2% return means the Canadian dollar fell 7.2% vs. the U.S.
dollar year to date. USD/JPY 116.24 means 1 U.S. dollar will buy 116.24 yen. USD/JPY 16.2% return means the U.S. dollar rose 16.2% vs. the yen year to date.
U P CO M I N G EV E N TS
SUN, NOV 16
TUE, NOV 18
WED, NOV 19, cont.
THU, NOV 20, cont.
Japan Q3 GDP (2.2% q/q ann.)
Eurozone ZEW Surveys
Japan Trade Balance (-¥1043.7B)
Germany/France Markit PMIs
Japan Dept. Store Sales
Germany ZEW Surveys
Eurozone ECB Current Acct.
U.S. Markit Manuf. PMI (56.5)
MON, NOV 17
U.K. RPI (2.3% y/y)
BoE MPC meeting minutes
U.S. CPI (1.6% y/y, core 1.8% y/y)
China Property Prices
U.K. CPI (1.2% y/y, core 1.6% y/y)
Fed meeting minutes
U.S. Existing Home Sales (5.15M)
Eurozone Trade Balance
U.S. PPI (1.2% y/y)
THU, NOV 20
U.S. Leading Index (0.5% m/m)
U.S. Industrial Prod. (0.2% m/m)
WED, NOV 19
Eurozone Markit Manuf. PMI (50.9)
FRI, NOV 21
Canada Int'l Security Trans.
China HSBC Manuf. PMI
Eurozone Markit Services PMI (52.4)
Canada CPI (2.0% y/y, core 2.2% y/y)
Canada Existing Home Sales
BoJ meeting
Eurozone Markit Comp. PMI (52.3)
All data reflect Bloomberg consensus forecasts where available
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
November 14, 2014
5
AUTHORS
Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco, United States
kelly.bogdanov@rbc.com; RBC Capital Markets, LLC.
regardless of a firm’s own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC
ratings of Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP) and Underperform (U)
most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings
are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as
described below).
Patrick McAllister – Toronto, Canada
patrick.mcallister@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Alana Awad – Toronto, Canada
alana.awad@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Eric Lafortune – Toronto, Canada
eric.lafortune@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Frédérique Carrier – London, United Kingdom
frederique.carrier@rbc.com; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd.
Davide Boglietti – London, United Kingdom
davide.boglietti@rbc.com; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd.
Jay Roberts – Hong Kong, China
jay.roberts@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
D I S C LO S U R E S A N D D I S C L A I M E R
Analyst Certification
All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the
responsible analyst(s) about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No
part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by
the responsible analyst(s) in this report.
Important Disclosures
In the U.S., RBC Wealth Management is comprised of RBC Capital Markets, LLC.
In Canada, RBC Wealth Management includes, without limitation, RBC Dominion
Securities Inc., which is a foreign affiliate of RBC Capital Markets, LLC. This report
has been prepared by RBC Capital Markets, LLC. Alana Awad, Patrick McAllister,
and Jay Roberts, employees of RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate RBC
Dominion Securities Inc.; and Davide Boglietti and Frédérique Carrier, employees of
RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate Royal Bank of Canada Investment
Management (UK) Limited; contributed to the preparation of this publication.
These individuals are not registered with or qualified as research analysts with
the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and, since they are not
associated persons of RBC Wealth Management, they may not be subject to NASD
Rule 2711 and Incorporated NYSE Rule 472 governing communications with subject
companies, the making of public appearances, and the trading of securities in
accounts held by research analysts.
In the event that this is a compendium report (covers six or more companies), RBC
Wealth Management may choose to provide important disclosure information
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References to a Recommended List in the recommendation history chart may
include one or more recommended lists or model portfolios maintained by RBC
Wealth Management or one of its affiliates. RBC Wealth Management recommended
lists include a former list called the Prime Opportunity List (RL 3), the Guided
Portfolio: Prime Income (RL 6), the Guided Portfolio: Large Cap (RL 7), the Guided
Portfolio: Dividend Growth (RL 8), the Guided Portfolio: Midcap 111 (RL9), the
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RBC Capital Markets recommended lists include the Strategy Focus List and the
Fundamental Equity Weightings (FEW) portfolios. The abbreviation ‘RL On’ means
the date a security was placed on a Recommended List. The abbreviation ‘RL Off’
means the date a security was removed from a Recommended List.
Distribution of Ratings
For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms
to assign ratings to one of three rating categories - Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell -
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
Rating
Distribution of Ratings - RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Research
As of September 30, 2014
Investment Banking Services
Provided During Past 12 Months
Count
Percent
Count
Percent
Buy [Top Pick & Outperform]
Hold [Sector Perform]
Sell [Underperform]
858
683
98
52.35
41.67
5.98
308
151
8
35.90
22.11
8.16
Explanation of RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Rating System
An analyst’s “sector” is the universe of companies for which the analyst provides
research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned to a particular stock represents
solely the analyst’s view of how that stock will perform over the next 12 months
relative to the analyst’s sector average. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC ratings of
Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP), and Underperform (U) most closely
correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the
same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described below).
Ratings:
Top Pick (TP): Represents analyst’s best idea in the sector; expected to provide
significant absolute total return over 12 months with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Outperform (O): Expected to materially outperform sector average over
12 months.
Sector Perform (SP): Returns expected to be in line with sector average over
12 months.
Underperform (U): Returns expected to be materially below sector average over
12 months.
Risk Rating:
As of March 31, 2013, RBC Capital Markets, LLC suspends its Average and Above
Average risk ratings. The Speculative risk rating reflects a security’s lower level of
financial or operating predictability, illiquid share trading volumes, high balance
sheet leverage, or limited operating history that result in a higher expectation of
financial and/or stock price volatility.
Valuation and Price Target Impediments
When RBC Wealth Management assigns a value to a company in a research report,
FINRA Rules and NYSE Rules (as incorporated into the FINRA Rulebook) require
that the basis for the valuation and the impediments to obtaining that valuation
be described. Where applicable, this information is included in the text of our
research in the sections entitled “Valuation” and “Price Target Impediment”,
respectively.
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received
compensation that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of
RBC Capital Markets, LLC, and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been
generated by investment banking activities of the member companies of RBC
Capital Markets, LLC and its affiliates.
Other Disclosures
Prepared with the assistance of our national research sources. RBC Wealth
Management prepared this report and takes sole responsibility for its content
and distribution. The content may have been based, at least in part, on material
provided by our third-party correspondent research services. Our third-party
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nor has it been informed of its publication. Our third-party correspondent may
from time to time have long or short positions in, effect transactions in, and make
markets in securities referred to herein. Our third-party correspondent may from
time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment
banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report.
November 14, 2014
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