Opening Bell

Opening Bell
November 20, 2014
US CPI YoY, US initial jobless claims, US
continuing claims, HSBC China Manufacturing
PMI, Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Index Movement (past one month)
25000
Key Developments
11-Nov
3-Nov
BSE (RHS)
• The Coal Ministry has released draft guidelines for allocation of
proposed coal blocks. The due date for auction is February 11, 2015
while allocation will be completed by March 16, 2015
• Wipro has hired Herve Sortais as GM and country head for France to
pursue new business opportunities and grow Wipro's brand visibility
• The US Food & Drug Administration (FDA) has been conducting an
unannounced inspection of Dr Reddy’s Laboratories’ unit at
Visakhapatnam since Tuesday. The unit, meant for formulations,
supplies to the European Union and US markets
• JSW Steel along with an Algerian company has submitted final bids
to acquire Italian Steel maker Lucchini
• Tata Power’s renewable energy subsidiary is in talks to invest in wind
energy firm, revving up deal activity in this sector as it seeks to
achieve its goal of adding as much as 300 MW to its portfolio
annually
• Larson and Toubro and Japanese firm Sojitz Corporation have jointly
won a railway electrification contract from the Railway Ministry
valued at | 2633 crore
Sensex
Nifty
19-Nov
26000
7600
17-Nov
27000
7800
13-Nov
28000
8000
7-Nov
29000
8200
30-Oct
30000
8400
28-Oct
8600
23-Oct
Markets Yesterday
• Domestic markets closed negative after the RBI governor’s comment
hinting that a rate cut may not happen soon enough amid prevailing
caution ahead of the release of FOMC minutes this week
• US markets closed negative after a volatile day following the release
of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's October monetary policy
meeting and on account of a report from the Commerce Department
showing a drop in housing starts
Today’s Highlights
21-Oct
Market Outlook
• The Indian market is expected to open flattish amid a muted trend
across global and other Asian markets. However, positive global
sentiments such as snap elections and a delay in tax hike in Japan
raising hopes for new stimulus, bodes well for the Indian markets.
NSE (LHS)
Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd)
28,033 28,163
-0.5
0.6
32.4
17.9
8,382
8,382
0.0
0.7
33.0
17.8
Institutional Activity
FII (| cr)
DII (| cr)
CY12
127,034
-55,841
CY13
112,221
-73,832
YTD CY14
95,217
-35,625
Yesterday Last 5 Days
72
2,203
-491
-2,227
World Indices – Monthly performance
Nikkei
17,292
19.0%
Nasdaq
4,676
9.8%
Dow Jones
17,686
8.0%
NSE
8,382
7.7%
BSE
28,033
7.4%
Germany
9,473
7.0%
U.K.
6,697
6.1%
France
4,266
5.8%
Shanghai
2,445
4.7%
Kospi
1,955
3.5%
Nifty Heat Map
Dr Reddy
HUL
United
Spirits
Hindalco
Maruti
RIL
Cipla
ACC
BHEL
Sesa
Sterlite
3,523.1
2.6%
760.2
1.1%
2,761.3
0.1%
154.8
-0.4%
3,343.4
-0.6%
978.2
-1.1%
599.2
-1.4%
1,463.1
-1.6%
249.1
-2.0%
240.4
-2.7%
HCL Tech
HDFC Ltd
Lupin
Tata
power
ITC
Grasim
Ind
NMDC
ONGC
PNB
GAIL
1,631.2
1.9%
1,117.2
1.0%
1,449.4
0.1%
88.5
-0.4%
367.9
-0.6%
3,558.1
-1.1%
149.4
-1.5%
384.2
-1.7%
963.1
-2.1%
477.3
-2.7%
DLF
L&T
ICICI Bank
TCS
141.2
1.8%
1,658.6
0.9%
1,682.9
0.1%
2,573.8
-0.5%
Kotak
Bank
1,077.6
Power
Grid
146.7
Bank of
Baroda
1,040.1
NTPC
IDFC
Cairn
India
-0.7%
-1.1%
-1.5%
144.2
-1.8%
158.7
-2.2%
261.2
-2.7%
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Tech M.
Bharti
Airtel
Infosys
Hero
Moto
Axis Bank
SBI
M&M
2,627.3
1.2%
401.8
0.6%
4,173.4
-0.2%
3,000.4
-0.6%
470.2
-0.8%
291.1
-1.2%
1,245.0
-1.6%
Sun
Pharma
850.1
Tata
Motors
529.5
JSPL
-1.9%
-2.2%
152.0
-3.1%
Bajaj Auto
BPCL
Wipro
2,675.0
1.2%
721.6
0.2%
564.9
-0.2%
HDFC
Bank
926.6
Indusind
Bank
715.5
Ultratech
Coal India
-0.6%
-0.9%
2,494.8
-1.4%
347.1
-1.6%
Ambuja
Cement
222.2
Asian
Paints
683.1
Tata Steel
-2.0%
-2.5%
471.0
-3.2%
Markets Today
Commodities
Gold (|/10 gm)
Silver (|/kg)
Crude ($/barrel)
Copper ($/tonne)
Currency
USD/INR
EUR/USD
USD/YEN
ADRs
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Tata Motors
Infosys
Dr Reddys Labs
Close
Previous
Change (%) MTD(%) YTD(%)
26,214
35,974
78.1
6755
26,529
36,223
78.1
6705
-1.2
-0.7
0.0
0.7
2.1
1.0
-9.0
-0.1
-4.8
-17.1
-29.5
-8.4
61.96
1.25
118.15
61.75
1.26
117.97
0.3
-0.1
0.2
-1.0
0.1
-4.9
-0.3
-8.7
-10.9
52.4
58.6
46.7
67.2
56.8
52.6
58.5
47.2
67.3
56.3
-0.4
0.2
-1.0
-0.2
0.9
7.6
NA
11.0
8.5
15.2
52.8
NA
53.1
19.0
37.1
Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)
Sectoral Index
Sector
3,849
18,440
5000
3,658
18,293
10000
3,399
17,094
15000
12-Nov
13-Nov
14-Nov
17-Nov
18-Nov
19-Nov
0
BSE Cash
NSE Cash
NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore)
13-Nov
14-Nov
0
225,092
12-Nov
100000
181,904
200000
205,601
300000
17-Nov
18-Nov
19-Nov
NSE Derivative
Sectoral Performance – Monthly Returns (%)
Close
Previous
Change
% Change
Volume
Auto
18907.3
19030.0
-122.7
-0.6
1333000
Banks
20130.6
20262.5
-131.9
-0.7
2474000
BSE Small Cap
11368.6
11443.2
-74.6
-0.7
102407000
Capital Goods
5101000
16138.6
16171.1
-32.5
-0.2
Consumer Durables
9745.4
9865.8
-120.4
-1.2
646000
FMCG
7733.2
7749.5
-16.3
-0.2
1107000
14797.9
14787.2
10.7
0.1
1927000
Healthcare
20000
3,459
18,128
Prior Values
4,388.26bln IN
-7.8bln $
28.9bln $
315.13bln $
5.70%
4.50%
43.2bln $
0.40%
-1.40%
-34.6bln $
14.25bln $
3.50%
1.30%
2.38%
2.84%
4.00%
8.00%
7.00%
180,966
Latest Values
4.70%
2.50%
2.50%
2.70%
0.43%
1.77%
2.43%
-
3,532
17,096
Release Date
28-Nov
24~05Dec
14-Nov
21-Nov
28-Nov
30-May
14-Nov
12-Nov
12-Nov
24~05Dec
14-Nov
14-Nov
14-Nov
14-Nov
14-Nov
2-Dec
2-Dec
2-Dec
205,894
Period
Oct
Q3
Oct
w/e
Q2
12M
Oct
Sep
Sep
Q3
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
N/A
N/A
N/A
3,654
17,402
Key Domestic Economic Indicator
Fed Fiscal Deficit
Current Account
Exports - USD
FX Reserves, USD Final
GDP Quarterly yy
GDP Annual
Imports - USD
Industrial Output yy
Manufacturing Output
Trade Deficit - RBI
Trade Deficit Govt - USD
WPI Food yy
WPI Fuel yy
WPI Inflation yy
WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio
RBI Repo Rate
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
184,838
Key Data Points
IT
10864.1
10841.7
22.4
0.2
946000
Metals
11205.7
11450.3
-244.6
-2.1
4392000
Mid Cap
10210.6
10275.3
-64.7
-0.6
58209000
Oil & Gas
10747.8
10894.6
-146.8
-1.3
1812000
Power
2145.0
2184.3
-39.4
-1.8
10833000
PSU
8217.7
8343.6
-126.0
-1.5
14980000
Real Estate
1648.4
1664.9
-16.6
-1.0
11874000
Real Estate
Capital Goods
Auto
Banks
BSE Small
Mid Cap
Healthcare
Power
IT
FMCG
Consumer
PSU
Metals
Oil & Gas
15.3
13.3
11.1
10.4
10.2
10.1
9.9
7.8
7.2
5.8
5.0
4.6
3.3
2.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
(%)
15.0
20.0
News
View
The government may allow ONGC to raise its This move will be negative for Cairn as it
stake in the Rajasthan block from 30% to 50%
will reduce its stake from 70% to 50%.
ONGC has the right to increase the stake
at the time of PSC, which will expire in
2020. It may also impact Cairn's future
investments and, hence, production in
the block
Impact
Key News for Today
Company/Industry
Cairn India
Kotak Bank and As per news articles, Kotak Mahindra Bank is ING Vysya Bank's current market cap is |
ING Vysya Bank
expected to acquire ING Vyasya Bank with swap 14480 crore. This is positive for both
ratio of 2:2.5 valuing the latter at | 16500 crore
banks as with the merger, Kotak Bank will
reduce its promoter stake by around 7%
to 33% and get synergies of presence in
southern india. Parent ING has also got a
strong exit benefiting ING Vysya Bank's
current shareholders
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Key News for Today
Shipbuilding
industry
The government plans to set up a | 1500-crore The fund is expected to be handled by
fund for the shipbuilding industry
Exim Bank. The fund will finance projects
related to construction, refitting and
repair of ships. As the shipbuilding
industry is reeling under paucity of funds,
this dedicated amount will prove to be a
breather
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Sensex Chart
Technical Outlook
We said, "Weakness below the Grey support
line could open up negative options..." The
index started 131 points higher but breaking
below the Grey support line later resulted in a
net loss of 130 points or 0.4%. Most sectors
ended flat to negative but the metal, power
and PSU indices shaved off 1.5-2% each. The
A/D ratio also turned negative to end at 1:3.
The action formed a Bear candle comprising
the biggest intra-day shave-off in the last 20days. The index broke below the Grey support
line, and is now testing the lower Blue channel
at about 27925. Watch if this support holds.
Weakness continuing below the channel could
test the two-week lows of 27739-65, which is
the next crucial support.
Pivot Points
CNX Nifty Technical Picture
Index/Stocks
SENSEX
NIFTY
ACC
ADANI ENTER.
ADANI POWER
ADITYA BIRLA
ALLAHABAD BANK
ANDHRA BANK
APOLLO HOSPITALS
APOLLO TYRES
ARVIND
ASHOK LEYLAND
ASIAN PAINTS
AUROBINDO PHARMA
BAJAJ AUTO
BOB
BOI
BATA INDIA
Close
28032.85
8382.30
1463.05
482.50
46.35
1769.05
118.40
86.25
1210.10
225.10
295.50
52.75
683.10
1122.30
2674.95
1040.05
280.30
1304.95
S1
27899.55
8343.30
1447.35
472.70
45.40
1749.25
115.10
84.35
1199.75
221.00
294.65
51.90
671.95
1101.10
2672.45
1025.40
276.10
1288.35
S2
27858.85
8331.50
1441.50
469.40
45.10
1743.50
114.25
83.70
1179.25
219.80
292.20
51.35
666.75
1090.65
2662.15
1020.30
274.25
1279.60
R1
28064.80
8390.90
1467.35
484.65
46.65
1776.40
119.00
86.95
1240.75
226.65
299.55
53.00
684.70
1124.50
2693.00
1040.85
281.60
1308.30
R2
28147.45
8414.70
1477.35
490.65
47.30
1790.00
120.95
88.25
1252.50
229.45
302.05
53.55
691.05
1136.25
2703.45
1048.60
284.40
1318.25
Nifty Call – Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) – November 2014
8000
8100
8200
8300
8400
8500
8600
8700
8800
150.0
111
100
103
121
37
91
97
30
50.0
115
87
33
15
0.0
Call
50.0
Put
Intraday
Rangebound
0
8350-8320
8410-8440
0
0
100.0
150.0
Advances
1201
530
BSE
NSE
Declines
1861
1007
Unchanged
93
56
Daily Technical Calls
1. Buy Tech Mahindra in range of 2632.00 - 2635.00
2. Sell ACC below 1464.00
*All recommendations are of November Future
See Momentum Pick for more details
Sell LICHF Nov Fut at 409.00-410.00
View: Bearish
Strategy: Sell Future
Target 1: 406.50
Target 2: 402.20
Stop Loss: 413.50
Market Lot: 1000
CMP : 412
See Daily Derivatives for more details
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
Short Term
Up
8180
8180
8650
8256
7431
Advances / Declines
Buy ARVMIL Nov Fut at 294.00-295.00
View: Bullish
Strategy: Buy Future
Target 1: 297.50
Target 2: 302.50
Stop Loss: 291.00
Market Lot: 1000
CMP : 296
16
21
100.0
Nifty
Trend
Trend Reversal
Support
Resistance
20 Days EMA
200 days EMA
Intraday Derivative Strategy
29
4
1
0
Trend
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
+ve
-ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
Results/Events Calendar
27
October
Monday
Kajaria Ceramics, HUL
Eight Infra. Ind. India
Markit US PMI
0
0
03
November
Monday
Dabur
Bank of India
HSBC India Manu. PMI
HSBC China Manu. PMI
Markit US Manu. PMI
10
November
Monday
Apollo Tyres, Ipca Labs
Motherson Sumi, TV Today
Page Industries, Dena Bank
Shree Cement
Graphite India
17
November
Monday
Eurozone Trade Balance
US Industrial Prod. MoM
0
0
0
24
November
Monday
Markit US Service PMI
Markit US Composite PMI
0
0
0
28
29
October
Tuesday
Nestle India, Lupin
Jubilant Life
VST Industries
0
0
04
Dr. Reddy's Lab, TechM
CONCOR
Sesa Sterlite
Industrial Prod. Japan
Fed QE3 Pace
05
November
Tuesday
V-Guard, Aban Offshore
Gujrat Pipavav Port
Thermax, Pidilite Industries
Chennai Petroleum
US Trade Balance
11
12
Tuesday
NRB Bearings
Powergrid, Bosch Limited
Amara Raja Batteries
Maharashtra Seamless
0
18
19
Tuesday
25
26
November
Tuesday
UK GDP YoY
US New Home Sales
0
0
0
US GDP Annualized QoQ
0
0
0
0
Major Economic Events this week
Date
17-Nov
17-Nov
17-Nov
17-Nov
18-Nov
18-Nov
19-Nov
Date
20-Nov
20-Nov
20-Nov
20-Nov
Event
Trade Balance SA
Industrial Production MoM
Exports YoY
Imports YoY
CPI YoY
PPI Final Demand YoY
ECB Current Account SA
0
0
0
0
0
November
Saturday
Coal India
Jaiprakash Power
0
0
0
November
Friday
15
November
22
November
29
November
Saturday
0
0
0
0
0
November
Friday
Saturday
0
0
0
0
0
28
Thursday
08
Friday
0
0
0
0
0
November
Saturday
November
Friday
Japan Industrial production
EC CPI Core YoY
0
0
0
Saturday
0
0
0
0
0
Bulk Deals
Country
EC
US
IN
IN
UK
US
EC
Event
Country
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI CH
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI EC
Eurozone Services PMI
EC
Eurozone Composite PMI
EC
20-Nov Initial Jobless Claims
20-Nov CPI YoY
20-Nov Continuing Claims
27
November
21
Thursday
November
Godrej Consumer
Tata Communications
Divi's Labs, DCB Bank
Atul Auto, JK Cement
China Manufacturing PMI
November
Cox & Kings, Tata Motors
CESC, PTC India, ONGC
GE Shipping, SBI, JK Tyres
Sadbhav Engg, BHEL, FSL
Pipavav Def., Future Retail
November
US CPI YoY
US Initial Jobless Claims
US Continuing Claims
HSBC China Manu. PMI
Markit Eurozone Manu. PMI
Wednesday
14
Thursday
20
November
Friday
Navneet Education
L&T, AIA Engineering
Bank Of Baroda, Sun TV
Petronet LNG, Jet Airways
City Union, Syndicate Bank
November
Tata Power, Sun Pharma
SCI, Bajaj Elec., Ashoka
Balkrishna Ind., Hindalco
United Spirits, NBCC, SAIL
MRPL, Hathway Cable,IOCL
Wednesday
ECB Current Account
0
0
0
0
UK CPI YoY
US PPI YoY
0
0
0
13
November
07
Thursday
01
October
M&M, NMDC, PVR, NTPC
Transport Corp of India
Gateway Distripark, KEC Int.
GAIL, ITC
India Fiscal Deficit
November
Cadila, Aurobindo Pharma
Ashok Leyland, Talwalkars
UK Industrial Prod. YoY
UK Manufacturing Prod. YoY
0
Wednesday
Eicher Motors, Tata Steel
Apollo Hos., BPCL, Eros
Natco Pharma, India Cement
Oil India, IGL, Siyaram Silk
Sobha Dev., JAL, HEG, J&K
November
06
November
31
October
Thursday
NHPC, eClerx, Titan
Bharti Airtel, Glenmark, EIH
Ajanta Ph., Taj GVK, Castrol
Maruti Suzuki, Yes Bank
ACC, Ambuja, JK Laxmi
Wednesday
Torrent Pharma, IRB Infra
FAG Bearings, Gulf Oil Lub.
Shoppers Stop, Bata India
Escorts, Heidelberg Cement
Essel Propack, Accelya Kale
November
30
October
Wednesday
US
US
US
Period
Sep
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Sep
Actual Expected
17.7B
16.0B
-0.10%
0.20%
-5.00%
-3.60%
-1.30%
1.20%
1.50%
1.30%
30.0B
--
Period Expected Previous
Nov
50.3
50.4
Nov
50.9
50.6
Nov
52.4
52.3
Nov
52.3
52.1
Nov
Oct
8-Nov
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research
----
290K
1.70%
2392K
No. of
shares Price (|)
Company
BSE*
Atul Auto
Emed.com Technologies
ITD Cementation
NSE*
Bhartiya Intl Limited
Client Name
Type
Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund
Lan Finance Private Ltd.
HDFC Mutual Fund
Buy
Buy
Buy
175,000
23,000
119,000
397.1
36.8
419.0
Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte
Buy
274,048
400.0
ITD Cementation
HDFC Infrastructure Fund
Buy
119,000
419.0
Amrutajan Health Ltd
Adihemshree Financial
Sell
75,000
325.0
Surya Pharmaceutical Ltd
IFCI Ltd.
Sell
1,524,710
0.4
Recent Releases
Date
Report
19 November 14
Result Update – Entertainment Network
19 November 14
Result Update- Butterfly Gandhimathi
19 November 14
Result Update- Cox & Kings
19 November 14
Result Update- page Industries
19 November 14
Result Update- India Cement
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Perspective
Product
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US markets, major headlines, technical view,
derivatives statistics, economic indicators,
commodities, market indicators, domestic &
global events.
Features four stocks & Nifty view with a
trading outlook for the day based on shortterm technical trends considering key
technical indicators & statistical information.
Trading strategy for a day in the futures &
options segment based on news events,
market trends, technical & other factors
governing movements in stocks.
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frame
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BTST Calls
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Based on short-term technical trends and
stock specific news/news expectations.
Based on short-term technical trends and
stock specific news/news expectations.
Based on short-term technical trends and
stock specific news/news expectations.
Provides simplified derivative strategies such
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Derivative
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Weekly & Monthly recommendations
Weekly Calls
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Technical trends for a week considering key
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Features stocks with a trading outlook for a
week based on short-term technical trends
considering key technical indicators &
statistical information.
Trading opportunities in futures & options
segment based on data analysis, overall
market trend, volatility & open interest
positions of securities.
Nifty outlook for the month based on F&O
data, FII activity, Heavyweights OI analysis
along with statistical inputs.
Derivatives outlook on global equity indices,
currencies and commodities. Also,
elaborating the likely impact on the Indian
bourses.
Trading outlook for a month based on
medium-term technical trends considering
key technical indicators & statistical
information.
Medium & Long term recommendations
Tecno Funda
On basis of Technical and Fundamental
whenever opportunity occurs we give these
Pick/Technical
calls
Deliver Call
Positional Derivatives
Stocks on the move
Identifying Out-performers/Under-performers
vis a vis index along with positional
recommendation on Stocks/Nifty.
Covers stocks, which are likely to show
significant upward movement in the next 15
days due to change in trader sentiment.
Detailed Company
Report
Fundamental report understanding the
business model and future prospects of the
company & valuations.
Equity Model
Portfolio
High Dividend
Yield Stocks
A portfolio based on your risk appetite: large
cap, midcap and diversified
Features high dividend yielding stocks for
assured returns on investment
Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
iClick-2-Gain
Weekly
1-7 days
5%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Weekly
1-7 days
4 – 5%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page
Weekly
1-7 days
4 – 5%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page
Monthly
30 days
-
Trading Page
Monthly
30 days
-
Trading Page
Monthly
30 days
10%
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iClick-2-Invest
Not regularly
recommended
3 months
20%
Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN
Fortnightly
Fortnightly – every
alternate Wednesday
> 7-15
days
5 – 7%
When published
> 1 year
> 20% &
above
Quarterly
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain
Pankaj Pandey
Head – Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com
Disclaimer
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consent of ICICI Securities Ltd (I-Sec). The author may be holding a small number of shares/position in the above-referred companies as on date of
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This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been
made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used
or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this
report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your
specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their
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ICICI Securities has been assigned an advisory mandate by Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited with regard to Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited’s
acquisition of Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited. This report is prepared on the basis of publicly available information.
ICICI Securities has received an investment banking mandate from Government of India for disinvestment in ONGC. This report is prepared based
on publicly available information.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research