Comparisons are odious? Peru’s Economic Outlook and Comparison to Its Regional Peers
November 2014
Comparisons are odious?
Peru’s Economic Outlook and Comparison to Its Regional
Peers
Munir Jalil
Chief Economist
Andean Region
munir.jalil@citi.com
+57 1 639 41 95
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Peru
Source: Citi Research & Bloomberg
2
Area:
Population (2013E):
30.1MM
Nominal GDP (2012):
US$199Bn
Nominal GDP (2013E):
US$210Bn
Nominal GDP (2014E):
US$217Bn
GDP per Capita (2012):
US$6,712
GDP per Capita (2013E):
US$6,960
GDP per Capita (2014E):
US$7,075
Real GDP Growth (2013E):
5.8%
Real GDP Growth (2014E):
2.5%
CPI (2013):
2.9%
CPI (2014E):
3.1%
Exports FOB (2013E):
$42.2Bn
Exports FOB (2014E):
$37.0Bn
Imports CIF (2013E):
$42.2Bn
Imports CIF (2014E):
$39.7Bn
FDI (2013E):
$9.3Bn
FDI (2014E):
$8.0Bn
1,285,216 sq km
Some Macroeconomic Forecasts
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F
Summary Data
Nominal GDP, USD bn
Nominal GDP, local currency bn
Economic Activity
Real GDP, yoy avg
Real Investment Growth % yoy
Real Consumption Growth % yoy
Prices, Money & Credit
CPI, % yoy (Citi estimates)
CPI, % avg
Balance of Payments, USD bn
Current account
% of GDP
Trade balance
Exports
Imports
Public Finances, % of GDP
Public Debt
107
336
127
371
127
382
153
435
176
486
199
526
208
563
207
584
224
628
8.5
31.3
8.0
9.1 1.0 8.5
29.4 -22.9 38.8
8.6 4.1 8.2
6.5
12.9
5.8
6.0
12.3
6.4
5.8
10.5
5.5
2.5
0.1
4.7
3.8
3.5
5.1
2.9
2.8
3.1
3.2
2.5
2.5
3.9
1.8
6.7
5.8
0.2
2.9
2.1
1.5
4.7
3.4
2.6
3.7
1.5
1.4
8.5
28.1
19.6
-5.3
-4.2
2.6
31.0
28.4
-0.6
-0.5
6.1
27.1
21.0
-3.5
-2.3
7.0
35.8
28.8
-3.2
-1.8
9.2
46.4
37.2
-6.3
-3.2
5.2
46.4
41.1
-9.1 -11.8 -11.7
-4.4 -5.7 -5.2
0.0 -2.7 -2.4
42.2 37.0 38.8
42.2 39.7 41.2
29.8
24.1
27.2
23.5
21.8
19.9
17.4
17.4
17.0
3
Source: Citi Research
Source: National statistics center or central bank of each country & Citi Research
Jun-10
-2%
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-09
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
0%
Jun-14
Jun-09
Dec-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Dec-07
Jun-07
2%
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
10%
Dec-08
Jun-08
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
Jun-09
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-06
Dec-06
12%
Dec-08
Jun-08
Dec-07
Jun-07
Dec-06
4.28%
Dec-06
Colombia
Jun-06
-2%
Dec-05
-4%
Jun-06
4%
Dec-05
-2%
Dec-05
6%
Jun-05
4%
Jun-05
10%
Dec-04
6%
Jun-05
1.66%
Jun-04
12%
Dec-04
8%
Jun-04
0%
Jun-14
2%
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
Peru
Dec-04
Jun-04
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Jun-08
Dec-07
Jun-07
Dec-06
Jun-06
Dec-05
Jun-05
Dec-04
14%
Dec-08
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Jun-08
Dec-07
Jun-07
Dec-06
Jun-06
Dec-05
Jun-05
Dec-04
Jun-04
Jun-04
Economic Growth %YoY
Chile
10%
8%
1.94%
Mexico
1.56%
Brasil
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-0.82%
-4%
4
65%
65%
60%
60%
55%
55%
50%
50%
70%
% of GDP
Colombia
70%
Source: National statistics center or central bank of each country & Citi Research
% of GDP
Dec-13
Apr-13
Aug-12
Dec-11
Apr-11
Aug-10
50%
Dec-09
50%
Apr-09
Peru
Aug-08
55%
Dec-07
55%
Apr-07
60%
Aug-06
60%
Dec-05
61.2%
Apr-05
70%
Aug-04
65%
Dec-03
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
70%
% of GDP
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Evolution of private consumption
% of GDP
Chile
67.2%
65%
Mexico
65.21%
67.90%
5
Jun-05
11.33%
% of GDP
16.68%
14%
8%
Dec-03
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Peru
15%
14%
14%
13%
13%
11%
11%
10%
10%
9%
9%
8%
8%
Colombia
15%
12%
10%
10%
9%
Source: National statistics center or central bank of each country & Citi Research
Dec-03
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
18%
Jun-14
12%
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
% of GDP
Jun-08
Dec-07
Jun-07
Dec-06
Jun-06
Dec-05
20%
Dec-04
Dec-03
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
15%
Jun-04
Dec-03
Evolution of government consumption
% of GDP
% of GDP
Chile
12%
11.84%
Mexico
14%
16%
13%
12%
11%
11.12%
8%
6
Source: National statistics center or central bank of each country & Citi Research
Jun-14
Nov-13
10%
Apr-13
10%
Sep-12
15%
Feb-12
15%
Jul-11
20%
Dec-10
20%
May-10
25%
Oct-09
25%
Mar-09
30%
Jun-14
Nov-13
Apr-13
Sep-12
Feb-12
Jul-11
Dec-10
May-10
Oct-09
Mar-09
Aug-08
Jan-08
Jun-07
Nov-06
Apr-06
Sep-05
Feb-05
Peru
Aug-08
Colombia
Jan-08
28.56%
Jun-07
10%
Nov-06
10%
Apr-06
15%
Sep-05
15%
Feb-05
20%
Jul-04
27.89%
Jul-04
20%
Dec-03
Jun-14
% of GDP
Dec-03
% of GDP
Jun-14
Nov-13
Apr-13
Sep-12
Feb-12
Jul-11
Dec-10
May-10
Oct-09
Mar-09
Aug-08
Jan-08
Jun-07
Nov-06
Apr-06
Sep-05
Feb-05
25%
Nov-13
Apr-13
Sep-12
Feb-12
Jul-11
Dec-10
May-10
Oct-09
Mar-09
Aug-08
Jan-08
Jun-07
Nov-06
Apr-06
Sep-05
Feb-05
30%
Jul-04
Dec-03
30%
Jul-04
Dec-03
Gross fixed capital formation
Chile
30%
25%
24.70%
% of GDP
Mexico
21.20%
7
Exports composition by product
Peru
Chile
26.6%
52.53%
37.74%
1.9%
4.0%
12.3%
55.1%
Mining
Oil and Derivatives
Fishing
Agriculture
9.73%
Other Exports
Mining
Agricultural , forestry and fisheries
Colombia
Industry
Mexico
29.6%
1.35%
84.05%
3.06%
55.2%
0.8%
11.54%
5.1%
9.3%
Oil and derivatives
Coal
Coffee
Ferronickel
Other Exports
Manufactures
Oil
Agricultural
Extractive (Non-Oil)
8
Source: National statistics center or central bank of each country & Citi Research
Oil & Derivatives
Source: National statistics center or central bank of each country & Citi Research
10%
Apr-14
Sep-13
Feb-13
Jul-12
Dec-11
May-11
Oct-10
Mar-10
Aug-09
Oil
60%
5%
0%
Oil Exports
9
Apr-14
Sep-13
Feb-13
Jul-12
Dec-11
May-11
Oct-10
Mar-10
Aug-09
Jan-09
Jun-08
% of total
exports
Jan-09
Nov-07
Apr-07
Sep-06
Feb-06
Jul-05
Peru
Jun-08
% of total
exports
Nov-07
54.0%
Apr-07
25%
Sep-06
Colombia
Feb-06
% of total
exports
Dec-04
0%
Jul-05
10%
May-04
14.57%
Dec-04
30%
Oct-03
40%
70%
Oct-03
50.20%
80%
May-04
Mar-03
64.77%
Mar-03
20%
Jun-14
50%
Apr-14
Sep-13
Feb-13
Jul-12
Dec-11
May-11
Oct-10
Mar-10
Aug-09
Jan-09
Jun-08
60%
Sep-13
Dec-12
Mar-12
Jun-11
Sep-10
Mining
Dec-09
Mar-09
Jun-08
Oil & Mining
Sep-07
Dec-06
Nov-07
Apr-07
Sep-06
Feb-06
Jul-05
Dec-04
May-04
% of total
exports
Mar-06
Jun-05
Sep-04
Dec-03
Mar-03
Jun-02
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Sep-01
70%
Oct-03
Mar-03
80%
Dec-00
Mar-00
Oil & mining exports over time
Chile
55.76%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Mining Exports
Mexico
20%
15%
10.79%
80
10
70
0
Source: National statistics center or central bank of each country & Citi Research
10
Sep-14
Sep-13
Sep-12
Sep-11
Sep-10
Sep-09
Sep-08
Sep-07
Sep-06
Sep-05
Sep-04
100
Sep-14
Sep-13
90
Sep-12
100
Sep-11
40
Sep-10
110
Sep-09
120
Sep-08
50
Sep-07
130
Sep-03
160
Sep-06
60
Sep-02
Peru
Sep-05
Colombia
Sep-04
140
154.6
Sep-03
150
Sep-02
50
Sep-01
60
Sep-01
70
Sep-00
80
Sep-00
90
Sep-99
99.6
Sep-99
Sep-98
110
Sep-98
100
Sep-14
Sep-13
Sep-12
Sep-11
Sep-10
Sep-09
Sep-08
Sep-07
160
Sep-06
120
Sep-05
170
Sep-04
Sep-03
Sep-02
Sep-01
Sep-00
Sep-99
Sep-98
Terms of Trade
Chile
140
120
111.4
80
60
40
20
0
70
Mexico
55.8
30
20
Copper Production
140
Thousands Fine
Metric Tons
US$ cents per
pound
Peru
120
500
450
400
100
350
300
80
250
60
200
150
40
100
20
50
0
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
0
Copper production (FMT)
LME Copper Price
600
Thousands Fine
Metric Tons
Chile
US$ cents per
pound
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
500
400
300
200
100
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
0
Copper Production
Source: INEI, Cochilco & Citi Research
LME Copper price
11
How much of the commodities’ boom was saved
and how it was used
Marginal propensity to save revenues
stemming from commodities
Savings’ use as a ratio of extraordinary
income
150
1
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
100
Capital
Activos Externos
50
0
Venezuela
Peru
Paraguay
Ecuador
Colombia
Chile
Brasil
Bolivia
-50
-100
Ahorro marginal de Ingresos de bienes basicos
Source “Alder, G; Magud, N. 2013.“Four Decades of Terms of Trade Booms: Saving-Invesment
Patterns and New Metric of Income Windfall” .WP 13/103. FMI
Primary surplus or deficit of the Central Government
0%
5%
% of GDP
Brazil
Peru
% of GDP
-1%
4%
-2%
3%
2%
-3%
1%
0%
10%
% of GDP
Chile
8%
-1%
6%
4%
2%
0%
5%
Colombia
% of GDP
4%
-2%
-4%
-6%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
5%
% of GDP
Mexico
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
*Accumulated value until June
13
Source: National statistics center or central bank of each country & Citi Research
Current Account Balance
4
Peru
% of GDP
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-6.78
-8
2
Colombia
% of GDP
% of GDP
-3.42
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% of GDP
1
0.0
0
-0.5
-1
-1.0
-2
-1.5
-3
-2.0
-4
-2.5
-4.3
-5
Chile
Mexico
-2.08
2014*
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
-3.0
14
Source: National statistics center or central bank of each country & Citi Research
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