Disaster Advances Vol. 7 (12) December 2014 Satellite-based Detection of Compounding Column of Ozone and Thermal Infrared Precursor Behavior to Earthquake Occurrence Pirasteh S.* and Li Jonathan Department of Geography and Environmental Management, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1, CANADA *s2pirast@uwaterloo.ca spectrometer can detect environmental parameters like atmospheric compounds. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) has spectral resolution more than 100 times than the previous IR sounder22. It is using thermal infrared bands ranging from 3.7 µm - 15.4 µm and the visible bands ranging from 0.4 µm - 1.0 µm. Abstract The theory exploring mechanism of the earthquake occurrence has been an intriguing part of research interest for scientists so far. Compounding of physical phenomena of pre-earthquake thermal infrared (TIR) and the column ozone (O3) concentration anomaly has been attempted for the Bam earthquake occurred on December 26, 2003 in Iran. Thermal infrared satellite data analysis revealed the land surface temperature (LST) rise ranging from 5°–10°C in and around epicenter areas. In addition, the research showed a significance anomaly of ozone concentration (column density) between 15 Du to 25 Du, few days prior to the main shock and after the shock. The study shows that a promising correlation between land surface temperature and column density for ozone (O3) can be established. Randel et al32 analyzed the anomalous environmental parameters such as ozone (O3). The ozone molecules in this atmospheric layer observe wavelength of the ultraviolet radiation18. Durante of life on the earth depends upon concentration of molecules of ozone in the stratosphere layer. In atmosphere mainly in troposphere, ozone is affected by Radon (-222Rn) and is librated before the main shock of an earthquake38,39. Using long term anomaly of Radon gas can support estimation concentration of other atmospheric gases such as CO2, CH4 and N2O40. In addition, Gorny et al15 used a satellite-based method to indicate seismic activity of central Asia region. They suggested that any abnormal infrared radiations detected from satellites could be expression of a seismic activity. The thermal anomalies started developing about 1–5 days prior to the main event depending upon the magnitude and focal depth and disappeared after the main shock. Monitoring of radioactive radiations and reactionary hypothesis of gases before and after quake in conjunction with TIR, probably could give us a clue to understand near real time earthquake forecasting in the region. However, the statement can be improved and expressed to release of heat and gases on the earth's surface and atmosphere depending on magnitude and focal depth of the earthquake and metrological condition of the area3. Accordingly, based on the technological growth of the world, scientists and researchers carried out various approaches toward understanding of the earthquakes in Iran and India,10,27-29 in China and Japan,36 Italy35 and USA.24 Keywords: Earthquake precursor, Thermal Infrared, Column Ozone, LST. The earth’s emissivity can unfold many unknown natural processes associated with earthquakes. Any thermal anomalies and gas concentration anomalies in tectonically active regions that is occurring on the land surface can be monitored regularly. In contrast, any abnormalities, when other meteorological conditions, are normal may be an indication for an impending earthquake. For example, a thermal rise in a tectonically active area can be expressed in building stresses and reflect the earth’s crust and release of heat and gases on the earth's surface. Thus, this research centres on finding a clue for occurrence of the earthquakes by combining the land surface temperature (LST) and concentration of column of ozone (O3) anomalies as to be expressed the signatures of a pre-earthquake. Introduction Iran is one of the seismic active regions and prone to earthquake in the world26. The evolving techniques of remote sensing have the potential to contribute and assist human research studies in evaluating natural processes and events occurring daily on the earth’s surface on a global basis. Space technology is increasingly becoming an important and valuable tool for earthquake studies and post-earthquake damage assessment1. Thermal infrared region of the electromagnetic radiation (EMR) of the NOAA-AVHRR and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on board the Aqua Satellite can be used for monitoring atmospheric component in understanding the behavior of the earthquakes. This will give us a clue to find the secrets of the earthquake occurrence by analyzing the earth's surface components. A high spectral resolution Tectonic and Study Area According to Ali et al2 and Pirasteh et al28,29, the Iranian plateau was formed 35 million years ago by opposite forces 32 Disaster Advances Vol. 7 (12) December 2014 of the Arabian plate and the Eurasia plate in the southwest and northeast directions respectively. In other words, the mechanical deformation of the study area is the result of collision between the Arabian plate and Eurasia that formed Zagros Mountains with geologic-structural features such as folds, faults and lineaments. The rise of Zagros Mountains is in conjunction with fault movements at depth of the Earth. The tectonic activities take place in the central east area of Iran along faults which are in North-South and Northwest-Southeast directional trends. illustrates the LST of the region in daytime and red colourfilled star symbol on the map indicates the day of the earthquake whereas unfilled colour star represents location of the impending earthquake epicentre of December 26, 2003. The normal temperature of the area is 22°C-25°C in December. However, the temperature has been seen on the map close to the earthquake occurrence time to be about 29°C to 31°C which is abnormal. Tectonically, the Bam is a part of the Lut-e-Zangi Ahmad desert5,9 with hot summers ranging from 46oC to 50oC and winters with below freezing temperatures. Bam and Naiband faults are two prone active faults (i.e. North-South trend) in the region. The Kuh Banan fault (i.e. NorthwestSoutheast) and the Gowk fault (i.e. North-South) are at conjunction with Naiband fault and it continues towards the Jebal Barez mountains in the Southwest of Bam. The Lut sub-plate is one of the stable sub-plates in Iran and before the earthquake. Bam is situated in the south western parts of Iran, located at 29.004°N and 58.337°E (Figure1). On the December 26, 2003, the earthquake with 6.6 magnitude and high intensity shocked Bam and killed about 30,000 people and nearly about 85% of buildings got destroyed. The focal depth was 10km and very close to the epicenter, near the ancient 2000-year-old city of Bam. The right-lateral strike-slip fault motion on the N–S trending Bam fault developed the Bam earthquake. Figure 1: The location of Bam in Iran and Middle East On the other side, chemical reaction of uranium sources with dilute sulfuric acid (H2SO4) at or near the center of the earth generates huge amount of energy, pressure and gases17,31. The fluxes of hot permanent matters and huge energy (heat) and pressure under the earth’s crusts cause plate tectonic movements and cracks19. In addition, during this natural nuclear fission in the interior of the earth, gases and radiations (alpha, beta and gamma) are emitted and released under the earth’s crust and fluxed upward20. Land Surface Temperature and Column of Ozone (O3) Anomalies Observation: Thermal infrared (TIR) emitted from the earth's surface is received by satellite and further it can be used to understand in prior to earthquakes12. Let us express any abnormal variations in thermal and temperature to be defined as "thermal anomaly" and "temperature anomaly" respectively. Geologists believe that a tectonic activity and fault movement produce stresses and friction generating gases on the earth's crust and the earth's surface which generate an earthquake zone. The energy from the earth releases and gets transformed in the form of low-frequency electromagnetic emission, earthquake lights, magnetic lights, magnetic field anomalies, gases such as ozone, heat and land surface anomalies. The consequent radioactivity generates alpha (α), beta (β) and gamma (γ) radiation liberated during earthquakes. Radioactive gases migrate with other permanent gases such as CH4, CO, CO2 and SO2 and precede the occurrence of a main earthquake shock19,33. Alpha particle is an energy that can migrate up to 30 cm above the earth surface.11 During earthquakes activity, molecules of ozone (O3) in the atmosphere are attacked and ionized to deform to a new form by energy of alpha16,23. Pulinets and Ouzounov30 have suggested that “Radon action on atmospheric gases is similar to the cosmic rays effects in upper layers of atmosphere”. This ionization process is represented in the mathematical sequence (Equation 1 and Figure 4). In other words, when molecules of ozone (O3) are charged by energy of alpha particle, they lose one electron. The significant changes in land surface temperature of the region being as an indicator for interpreting impending earthquake associated with release of gases such as O3 to determine the anomalies will prompt us to identifying a near real time earthquake. A series of the NOAA-AVHRR dataset for LST maps of the Bam earthquake (Figure 2) shows that there has been a significant rise in LST which appeared before the devastating earthquake of December 26, 2003. Figure 2 33 Disaster Advances Vol. 7 (12) December 2014 α ~ O3 = O3+. + eα ~ O3+. = O2+ O+. α ~ O2 = O2+. + eα ~ O2+. = O+. + O+. (1) where α is alpha energy and particle, O3 is a molecule of ozone and O2 is a molecule of oxygen and e- is an electron. O+ is an unstable radical atom of oxygen that lost a electron. Land surface temperature (LST) is one of the key parameters for monitoring the behavior of the earthquake occurrence before and after the quake. The physical properties of the LST can be used on regional and global scales, combining the result to concentration of column ozone (O3) to find the correlation between the build-up disappearance of the elements and pre-earthquake. Methodology Basically, the research has been attempted via two approaches to determine the influences of the deformed energy released on the earth's surface in the form of temperature and O3. Then both the approaches were combined and correlated to determine the relationships between surface deformation in Bam and appearance of the TIR and concentration of ozone (O3) anomalies. We believe that coupling of the TIR and AIRS using remote sensing and geologic techniques interpretation will enhance understanding of the impending earthquakes for near-real time estimation. Figure 2: Land surface temperature (LST) time series map of Iran before and after the earthquake (on December 26, 2003) in Bam extracted from NOAAAVHRR 238U 4.5*10-9 a Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is able to quantitatively measure ozone twice daily in a global observation between 9.55 μm and 10.26μm in 166 channels with a spatial resolution 1° by 1°. The AIRS spectrum consists of 2378 channels spanning 3.7 μm to 15.4 μm with a spectral resolution of ∆λ/λ = 1/1200, where Δλ is the smallest difference in wavelengths that can be distinguished at a wavelength of λ. α 234Th 234 Pa 1.18 m α β 24.1 d 230Th 7.52 *104 a 218Po 3.05 m α 234U β 2.5*105 a 228Ra α 1602 a α 26.8 m β α 214Po α 210Ti β Remotely sensed map based on latitude and longitude with respect to the time-averaged global 1° ×1° daily level 3 product of ozone acquired by the AIRS was analyzed to ascertain the amount of O3 for the days preceding and after the Bam earthquake. The data was combined with the land surface temperature (LST) from NOAA-AVHRR to learn about the correlations of the both parameters in order to understand the near real time earthquake in future. In addition, the digital image processing (DIP) was carried out on NOAA-AVHRR in conjunction to the satellite digital image processed data for producing LST maps in ENVI environment. 214 Bi 19.7 m 1.32m 3.83 d β 214Pb α 222Ra 1.6*10 -1s 210Pb 22.3 a β 210B 5.02 d β 210Po 138 d α 206Pb Stable The data for daytime and nighttime were collected from few days prior to the earthquake (i.e. December 18, 2003) to a day after the main shock (i.e. December 27, 2003). The data for the same period of the year for 2004 was also Figure 3: Uranium and its daughters like Radon undergo a natural random decaying process.3 Half-life; year (a), day (d), m (minute) and second (s) 34 Disaster Advances Vol. 7 (12) December 2014 digitally processed in order to define the abnormality of the thermal precursor. channels used to study the variation of the column ozone gas released due to stresses and movement of Naiband and Bam faults before and after the quake. Potentiality, AIRS instrument has ability to detect ozone in different channels, and can support monitoring O3 precursor for a near-real time earthquake. Basically, LST maps were produced based on split window algorithm8 and further compared with existing maps to validate the study precision. In this model, we used the differential absorption effect in bands 4 and 5 of the satellite image for atmospheric correction attenuation that mainly is caused by water vapor absorption. The NOAAAVHRR sensor images have a high spatial (1.1 km) with temporal (four scenes daily per satellite) resolution. Results and Discussion The land surface temperature (LST): This research explored the use of remote sensing techniques in detecting the change of thermal regime. It can perhaps provide important clue to some impending earthquake activity by using remote sensing techniques as presented in this research. If earthquakes forewarn us before they strike, it is of more importance that we understand and pick up the clues. Satellite based radiometers (e.g. NOAA-AVHRR and AIRS etc.) which detect the thermal emission and gases originating from the earth's surface and earth's crust due to faults movements and tectonic activities in the form of heat and gas can be used to study any thermal anomalies developing near surface of the earth. Such satellite-derived detection of land surface temperature (LST) anomaly related to an earthquake is an important breakthrough for earthquake research. The combination of LST and O3 data few days before preceding the main quake and a day after the quake was analyzed. The data (Table 1) for December 24, 25, 26 and 27, 2003 were analyzed and compared to the LST of the region for the same days (Figure 2). In addition, the ozone data for 20, 21, 22 and 24 December 2003 are recorded in our database designed research road map for the future studies. We could find a remarkable correlation between the two parameters only for these days. However, LST and column ozone (O3) were determined to explore the potential of the remote sensing techniques and AIRS sensor for earthquake forecasting. Figure 5 depicts the daily observation of the column of ozone (O3) from the processed AIRS infrared sounder Table 1 Semivariogram/covariance modeling for case study Data Day 24 (before Ozone Samples Mean Value 159 242.9 Mean root square 11.68 Regression function 0.906 * x + main shock) 23.146 (DU) Model:733.7*Gaussian (738530) +197.23*Nugget 25(before 182 264.68 5.22 main shock) 0.967 * x + 8.692 Model:417.76*Gaussian(698160)+36.396*Nugget 26 (Main 191 244.64 7.769 0.925 * x + shock) 18.576 Model:705.73*Tetraspherical(927630)+32.082*Nugget 27(after main 141 250.38 6.573 shock) 0.869 * x + 32.818 Model:368.99*Spherical(518360)+0*Nugget 35 Disaster Advances Vol. 7 (12) December 2014 temperature came to the normal position. The digital processing and interpretation of nighttime NOAA-AVHRR data for the year 2004 from the same days of the occurrence of Bam earthquake showed there has not been such abnormal behavior of the LST. - E - E - E E Alpha Particle and Radiation - Nucleus E The Column of Ozone (O3): This research tried to enhance the O3 anomalies detecting from the satellite images using AIRS before the main shock of an earthquake can be used to monitor understanding of a near real time earthquake occurrence. This paper presented O3 anomalies as an indicator preceding the earthquakes in conjunction with LST parameter. It is seen that the mean ozone (Du) was increased from December 20, 2003 to December 24, 2003 between 2 Du to 13 Du. On December 26, 2003 a significant change was observed and it reached to 231.882 Du which is abnormal and could be picked up as an indicator for occurrence of the Bam earthquake. - E - E Figure 4: Atom lost one electron by alpha particle and radiation activity However, the next day after the main shock mean ozone increased to 256.254 Du. The column ozone density anomaly three days in prior to the main shock is about 20 Du which is extremely abnormal (Figure 7 a, b, c and d). In addition, the figures showed that the column of ozone decreased from southwest to northeast. As we mentioned, Bam area is a part of the Iranian plateau that is mainly influenced by the tectonic activities from Arabian plate. Now, if we consider the tectonic behavior of the region, the figures revealed that the column of ozone gradually decreased from the path of the Arabian plate toward Bam's earthquake epicenter. Thus, this paper believes that this is a strong relationship between geological deformations in Bam and appearance of TIR and O3 anomalies. The directional changes of the ozone column density in tectonic Bam area addressed both earthquake's activities and radioactive gas emission before the main shock and its realm. Figure 5: Mean ozone (Du) of Bam earthquake before and after the shock The study showed that the average temperature few days prior to the occurrence of Bam earthquake was about 5°C to 10°C (Figure 6) and at places it was abnormal as compared to the same days for previous year. On December 21, 2003, the temperature was between 22°C to 25°C. The increment of the temperature continued for a day to two days before the main shock and it reached to about 32°C during December 24 and 25, 2003. The study shows that the first thermal anomaly appeared on December 21, 2003 with around 7°C–13°C increase in surface temperature relative to the temperature of about two to three days before which is higher than the normal temperature. However, it is 7°C–8°C higher than the normal temperature in the epicenter region around that period of the year. On December 22, 2003 the temperature was decreased and back to normal temperature. The earthquake occurred on December 26, 2003, one to five days after the thermal peak on December 24, 2003. Now, this study believes that monitoring the column of ozone (O3) can be evaluated as a precursor model for understanding a near real time earthquake occurrence. In other words, these elements reflex effect and intensity of inner forces in the forms of both radioactive gases and direction of huge heat on the earth during tectonic hazards like earthquake. The LST and Column Ozone (O3) Comparison: The LST anomaly based on thermal infrared satellite data as a precursor has been found during earthquakes in Bam, Iran during December 20, 2003 to December 29, 2003. It is seen that the concentration of column ozone (O3) has decreased significantly about 30 DU (Table 2). The peak land surface temperature (LST) was observed about one to two days before the main shock in the region. The study showed a remarkable correlation between the build-up of the thermal and column density of ozone (O3) anomalies. The data for night time of NOAA-AVHRR was analyzed to show that on December 26, 2003 the temperature was at the highest peak and a day after on December 27, 2003 the 36 Disaster Advances Vol. 7 (12) December 2014 a b d e g c f h Legend Figure 6: NOAA-AVHRR nighttime data for Bam earthquake December 26, 2013. Showing LST on a) December 18, 2003, b) December 21, 2003, c) December 22, 2003, d) December 23, 2003, e) December 24, 2003, f) December 25, 2003, g) December 26, 2003 [epicenter 6.6 magnitude] and h) December 27, 2003. 37 Disaster Advances Vol. 7 (12) December 2014 Figure 7a): The column of Ozone on 24.12.2003 Figure 7b): The column of Ozone on 25.12.2003 Figure 7c): The column of Ozone on 26.12.2003 Figure 7d): The column of Ozone on 27.12.2003 ** The black line is profile of the column ozone according to path of tectonic forces, Satar shows geographic situation of main shock on Bam’s earthquake and faults It is seen that a day to two days in prior to the main shock, the land surface temperature (LST) is increased whereas the density of the column ozone is decreased. It is interesting to mention that on December 26, 2003, the column density of ozone is significantly decreased as compared to the two to three days before the main shock; while land surface temperature (LST) detected from NOAA-AVHRR daytime showed increment. However, both the land surface temperature (LST) and O3 anomalies are depending on the tectonic activities and geological deformation occurred due to the movement of Bam and Naiband faults near to the epicenter of the Bam's earthquake. column density was identified within the epicenter of Bam area. This is interpreted to be associated with release of energy in the form of heat and O3 due to the massive movement of the Naiband and Bam faults. Ozone (O3) is an extremely unstable gas in the atmosphere especially in troposphere and is being reacted and ionized by radioactive particles that can result in varying anomalies in the atmosphere during earthquake activity. Earthquake precursor study by space technology emphasis on monitoring land surface temperature and gases like the column ozone can further develop understanding mechanism of earthquakes in establishing a proper disaster management vision for mitigation and preparedness for reducing earthquake damages. In addition, the study has established a correlation of the column ozone gas and the variation of its presents in the days preceding and after the quake. This research believes in using the information collected from earth observation space-borne satellite images and integrating with ground stations data, it may be possible to monitor to establish an algorithm and a model for near real time earthquake estimation. The interpolation Conclusion We conducted land surface temperature (LST) and O3 preearthquake monitoring to investigate the behavior of temperature and column density of ozone of Bam earthquake occurred on December 26, 2003 which destructed many buildings and killed people and gave us a good lesson to prepare for future disasters (Figure 8). The anomalies correspond to find a clue for the future earthquakes. A significant and distinctive thermal and 38 Disaster Advances Vol. 7 (12) December 2014 of spatial data on tectonic zones daily and globally can also recognize the direction of inner huge energy before main shock earthquakes. conditions and tectonic active regions like British Columbia in Canada. If we combine land surface temperature and O3 with other geological-geophysical data and evidences, we may be able to improve determining of an earthquake precursor for near-real time prediction and develop an algorithm that possibly help in development of earthquakes forecasting. Thus, this study encourages the researchers to develop an algorithm and a model based on the land surface temperature (LST), density of column ozone O3, geologic factors, focal depth and magnitude of the pre-earthquakes. The uncertainty of this algorithm can be evaluated by using the probabilistic models and monitoring the future quakes. Table 2 Correlation between mean ozone (Du) and LST Date 20/12/2003 21/12/2003 22/12/2003 23/12/2003 24/12/2003 25/12/2003 26/12/2003 27/12/2003 Mean Ozone (Du) 248.455 247.886 251.063 261.21 250.463 246.789 231.882 256.254 LST °C 13-18 22-25 23-28 25-31 29-32 25-30 14-20 21-25 References 1. Adams B. J. and Huyck C. K., Application of high-resolution optical satellite imagery for post-earthquake damage assessment: The 2003 Boumerdes (Algeria) and Bam (Iran) earthquakes, Research Progress and Accomplishments 2003-2004, Buffalo, MCEER (2004) 2. 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