A VALUE DRIVEN FOCUS INVESTOR UPDATE DECEMBER 2014 TSX-V: PNE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS Certain statements contained in this release include statements which contain words such as “anticipate”, “could”, “should”, “expect”, “seek”, “may”, “intend”, “likely”, “will”, “believe” and similar expressions, statements relating to matters that are not historical facts, and such statements of our beliefs, intentions and expectations about development, results and events which will or may occur in the future, constitute “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation and are based on certain assumptions and analysis made by us derived from our experience and perceptions. In particular, this presentation contains statements regarding the operational, economic and financial impacts of the acquisition of the shallow gas assets in Southern Alberta and Southern Saskatchewan (the “Shallow Gas Assets”) that closed October 1, 2014 (the “Shallow Gas Transaction”) and the acquisition of the liquids rich assets in the Carrot Creek/Edson areas of Alberta (the “Carrot Creek/Edson Assets”) that closed August 7, 2014 (the “Carrot Creek/Edson Transaction”) to Pine Cliff Energy Ltd. (“Pine Cliff” of the “Company”), the potential growth opportunities on the Shallow Gas Assets or the Carrot Creek/Edson Assets, other anticipated benefits to Pine Cliff of the Shallow Gas Transaction and the Carrot Creek/Edson Transaction and information regarding Pine Cliff on a pro forma basis; the terms and amount of Pine Cliff's revolving demand credit facility; the amount drawn on Pine Cliff's revolving demand credit facility; current and pro forma production values; expected decline rates; the strategy of the Company and the ability of the Company to execute on this strategy; expected cash provided by operations; future returns on share price; future capital expenditures, including the amount, timing and nature thereof; oil and natural gas prices and demand; cash flow leverage to natural gas prices; expected cash provided by operations; expansion and other development trends of the oil and gas industry; reserve and resource volumes; business strategy and outlook; expansion and growth of our business and operations; maintenance of existing customer, supplier and partner relationships; supply channels; accounting policies; credit risks; and other such matters. As such, many factors could cause the performance or achievement of Pine Cliff to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements that may be expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Because of the risks, uncertainties and assumptions contained herein, readers should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Any data, graphs or information in this presentation that have been compiled by a third party has been credited to that third party and Pine Cliff does not take responsibility for the accuracy of such information. In addition, statements relating to "reserves" are by their nature forward-looking information, as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions that the reserves described can be profitably produced in the future. The recovery and reserves estimates provided herein are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be recovered. Pine Cliff cautions that its future oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids production, revenues, cash flows, liquidity, plans for future operations, expenses, outlook for oil and natural gas prices, timing and amount of future capital expenditures, and other forward-looking information is subject to all of the risks and uncertainties normally incident to the exploration for and development and production and sale of oil and gas. Certain information contained herein is based on information and internal estimates provided to Pine Cliff by the vendor of the Carrot Creek/Edson Assets to Velvet Energy Ltd. Although Pine Cliff believes such information is accurate and reliable, at this time such information has not been verified by any independent sources and Pine Cliff does not make any representations as to the accuracy of such estimates. All such forward-looking information is based on certain assumptions and analyses made by us in light of our experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors we believe are appropriate in the circumstances. The risks, uncertainties, and assumptions are difficult to predict and may affect operations, and may include, without limitation: foreign exchange fluctuations; equipment and labour shortages and inflationary costs; general economic conditions; industry conditions; changes in applicable environmental, taxation and other laws and regulations as well as how such laws and regulations are interpreted and enforced; the ability of oil and natural gas companies to raise capital; the effect of weather conditions on operations and facilities; the existence of operating risks; volatility of oil and natural gas prices; oil and gas product supply and demand; risks inherent in the ability to generate sufficient cash flow from operations to meet current and future obligations; increased competition; stock market volatility; opportunities available to or pursued by us; and other factors, many of which are beyond our control. The foregoing factors are not exhaustive. Actual results, performance or achievements could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, this forward-looking information and, accordingly, no assurance can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking information will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so, what benefits will be derived therefrom. Except as required by law, Pine Cliff disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The forward-looking information contained herein is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. This presentation contains the term barrels of oil equivalent (“boe”) which has been calculated on the basis of six thousand cubic feet of gas to one barrel of oil. This conversion ratio is based on energy equivalence primarily at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. The term boe may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. -1- CORPORATE PROFILE MARKET CAPITALIZATION NOW $410 MILLION(1) Listing TSX-V: PNE Average Daily Volume(2) 1.0 million 52-Week Trading Range $0.96 to $2.13 Shares Issued(3) 233.7 million Directors and Officers Ownership(4) 16.4% 2014 Production Exit Guidance 11,900-12,100 boe/d 2014 Production Mix 95% natural gas Corporate Production Decline Rate <15% Working Interest Ownership ~90% Production Operatorship ~90% 2014 Capital Expenditure Guidance $13.6 million Bank Line Drawn(5) ~$57 million (1) Market capitalization as at November 28, 2014 with a closing price of $1.76 daily trading volumes for October 1 to November 30, 2014 (3) In addition, there are 15.9 million stock options issued (6.8% of outstanding shares) (4) On a fully diluted basis (5) As at October 1, 2014 (2) Average -2- A VALUE DRIVEN FOCUS Long-term view of sustainable shareholder value creation, with a focus to acquire strong assets at accretive valuations High insider ownership aligns interest with shareholders Discipline Financial Flexibility Long-Term Value Creation Experience Low operating cost, low decline production and increasing drilling inventories are priorities Balance sheet strength gives us flexibility for future transactions We have completed four financings since November 2012, each at a higher price than the previous financing Opportunity Our team has an exceptional track record of delivering superior long-term results for stakeholders Our team has decades of transaction execution experience -3- A UNIQUE, COUNTER-CYCLICAL STRATEGY BUILDING A FAMILIAR MODEL • Pine Cliff’s Chairman and largest shareholder, George Fink, served the same roles with both Bonterra Energy and Comaplex Minerals • • • Four out of five of Pine Cliff’s board of directors also served on the boards and management teams of Bonterra and Comaplex Bonterra (TSX: BNE) has gone from $0.20 per share in 1998 to $43.30 per share on November 28, 2014, while paying over $30.00 of dividends per share. A $20,000 investment in 1998 would equate to almost $8 million today (including dividends and share appreciation) Comaplex went from $0.60 per share in 1994 to $10.32 per share in 2010 when it was sold • We have a long-term view of value creation, therefore our focus is to acquire assets that are non-core to their owners at good valuations • • • Similar to Bonterra’s origin with oil assets in 1998 Despite natural gas pricing fluctuations in the past three years, we have remained disciplined in our approach Management will continue to seek assets that will add sustainable value to our portfolio Pine Cliff Return(1) Bonterra Return Combined Share Price $76.03 Share Price $10.32 Comaplex Return Share Price Dividend $1.76 $43.30 $32.73 2011 (1) Pine $0.60 $0.20 $0.17 2012 2013 Nov-14 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Nov-14 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Cliff return is presented since the change in strategic focus of the company and management appointment on December 21, 2011 -4- 2010 KEY MILESTONES A TRACK RECORD OF SUCCESSFUL EXECUTION SINCE JANUARY 2012 $488,000,000 $448,000,000 $408,000,000 $368,000,000 Market Cap Phil Hodge appointed President and CEO; George Fink appointed Executive Chairman Completed rights offering and private placement for gross proceeds of $2.9M Share Price Closed acquisition of Realized its security and additional Southern AB assets became the sole and operatorship for $13.3M shareholder of Skope Energy Closed private placement for net proceeds of $5.4M at $0.70 /share Closed acquisition of additional 52% WI in the Monogram Unit for $34M $328,000,000 $288,000,000 $248,000,000 Purchased the debt and security for Skope Energy Acquired the Carrot Creek assets for $23.5M $208,000,000 $168,000,000 Closed acquisition of Geomark Exploration Ltd. Completed common share offering for gross proceeds of $25.1M at $0.88 /sh Oct 1: Closed Shallow Gas Asset acquisition for $100M Sept 23: Closed equity offering for gross proceeds of $60.1M at $2.05/sh Aug 7: Completed Carrot Creek / Edson Asset acquisition for $33.3M $2.67 $2.17 Closed common share offering for gross proceeds of $20.0M at $1.10/sh $1.67 $1.17 $128,000,000 $0.67 $88,000,000 $48,000,000 $8,000,000 $0.17 -5- INNOVATIVE & ACCRETIVE ACQUISITIONS 100 BOE/D TO 12,000 BOE/D IN LESS THAN THREE YEARS Transaction Transaction Metrics Flowing P+P PNE Price at Announcement Date Announcement Transaction Production P+P Date ($MM) (boe/d) (mmboe) ($/boe/d) ($/boe) ($/sh) Carrot Creek/Edson Transaction 29-Jul-14 $33.3 970 4.0 $34,278 $8.31 $1.86 Shallow Gas Transaction 17-Jul-14 $100.0 5,300 15.5 $18,868 $6.45 $1.38 Southern AB & SK Asset Acquisition 17-Jul-13 $13.3 850 2.4 $15,588 $5.62 $1.00 Monogram Unit WI Acquisition 27-May-13 $33.7 1,600 7.7 $21,063 $4.39 $0.81 Skope Energy Inc. Acquisition 20-Nov-12 $28.0 3,500 9.4 $8,000 $2.98 $0.69 Carrot Creek Asset Acquisition 10-Feb-12 $23.5 950 3.1 $24,737 $7.58 $0.40 $17,593 $5.51 -6- OCT. 1 SHALLOW GAS ACQUISITION STRATEGIC FIT WITHIN CURRENT CORE AREA OF SOUTHERN AB AND SK • Purchase price of $100 million, prior to adjustments • Closed October 1, 2014 with an effective date of July 1, 2014 • Materially accretive to Pine Cliff on cash flow per share, production per share and reserves per share • Undrilled, recompletion and reactivation locations to add to Pine Cliff’s inventory • The assets are 85% operated and high working interest (averaging 93%) • The majority of the assets are in Southern AB and SK with minor assets in Central AB Long Valley Many Islands Hatton Hatton East -7- HIGHLIGHTS OF ACQUISITION (1) ACCRETIVE ACQUISITION WITH STRONG LEVERAGE TO NATURAL GAS PRICES Production (May 2014 average) 2) 5,300 boe/d Natural gas weighting 100% Operating costs $8.54 per boe Royalty rate 8% of revenue Low decline rate 14% Proved Reserves(4) 10.7 Mboe Proved and Probable Reserves(4) 15.5 Mboe ATTRACTIVE PURCHASE PRICE METRICS Production $18,870 per flowing boe Proved Reserves(3) $9.38 per boe Proved and Probable Reserves(3) $6.45 per boe (1) Certain information contained herein is based on information and internal estimates provided to Pine Cliff by the vendor of the Shallow Gas Assets. Although Pine Cliff believes such information is accurate and reliable, at this time such information has not been verified by any independent sources and Pine Cliff does not make any representations as to the accuracy of such estimates. (2) Provided by the vendor. (3) Based on the vendor’s internal reserve evaluations with an effective date of December 31, 2013. -8- Q3 UPDATE: INCREASED PER SHARE VALUE Mid-point of 2014 Guidance Sales Volumes (boe/d) 7,700 8,000 7,000 6,443 6,276 6,371 5% 6,810 5,784 6,000 5,000 increase in daily production per share(1) 4,335 4,000 2,536 3,000 2,000 972 1,000 88 401 895 832 - 100% increase in funds flow from operations per share(1) Funds Flow From Operations (000s) $12,000 $10,089 $9,180 $10,000 $8,104 $8,000 $5,564 $6,000 $3,721 $4,000 $2,401 $2,000 $55 $3,014 $775 $(35) $520 $442 121% increase in proved plus probable reserves per share(2) $-$2,000 (1) (2) For the quarter ended September 30, 2014 as compared to September 30, 2013 As at December 31, 2013 as compared to December 31, 2012, excluding 2014 acquisitions -9- TWO MAJOR OPERATED CORE AREAS WHAT WE HAVE BUILT • • • Corporate decline rate on our base production of < 15% Base production of >12,000 boe/d Liquids rich drilling upside in the Carrot Creek/Edson area -10- SOUTHERN ASSETS SHALLOW GAS CORE AREA • Strong Cash Flow Leverage to Natural Gas Prices • Low Cost Production • Low Decline Rate • Multi-Zone Area Production from Cretaceous Milk River, Medicine Hat and Second White Specks • High Working Interest INSERT NEW MAP 86% of land and infrastructure; production is approximately 93% operated • Extensive Land 903,036 gross acres (777,690 net acres) • Significant Undrilled or Recompletion Locations Internally estimated at ~300 gross locations -11- CARROT CREEK/EDSON MULTI-ZONE CORE AREA • Multi-Zone Area Targeting Fernie Sand, Gething/Ellerslie, Lower Mannville, Notikewin, Ostracod, Rock Creek, Viking and Wilrich • Average Working Interest ~60%; Production is ~70% operated • Land 58,322 gross acres (34,232 net acres) • High Quality Liquids Production Approximately 23% oil and liquids • Strategic Partners Pine Cliff has active partners (Velvet Energy and Bonterra Energy) in the area providing access to infrastructure and operational synergies (treated as an owner up to 30% in the 12-15 Velvet gas plant) • Minimal Capital Development to Date Drilled two gross (0.55 net) wells in Q3 2014 • Significant Undrilled Locations Internally estimated at over 60 gross locations -12- BUILDING A STRONG PLATFORM ASSEMBLING A PORTFOLIO OF HIGH-QUALITY PROPERTIES FOR LONG-TERM VALUE • Continues to look like a “buyer’s market” for natural gas assets • • Markets are rewarding companies for focused asset portfolios, so sale of “non-core properties” will continue Shortage of buyers with access to capital focused on dry natural gas assets • We have a strong emphasis on minimizing overhead and decreasing operating expenses • • • Q3-2014 operating costs of $9.98 per boe Q3-2014 general and administrative expense of $2.14 per boe, before transaction costs Q3-2014 operating netback of $15.08 per boe with an average AECO price of $4.08 per mcf • Current focus is on assets and companies that will maximize our leverage for any increases in natural gas pricing • Low operating cost, low decline production and drilling inventories are priorities Pine Cliff is well-positioned to capitalize on its growth strategy and is poised to provide shareholders with increased value and returns -13- SIGNIFICANT FREE FUNDS FLOW 2015 Free Funds Flow as a % of Enterprise Value Including Dividend Obligations BNP RRX MQL PGF CPG MQL PRY PRY HME HME TVE TVE PGF CEX CEX CR CR PPY PPY QEC QEC LXE LXE MEI MEI DCK -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% FCF/EV (%) 10.0% 20.0% 1.5x 1.0x 0.5x 0.0x FCF(incl. div)/EV (%) DCK -30.0% Source: September 23, 2014 Canaccord Genuity -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% -0.5x CR PEY PEY DEE BXE 2.0x TET ARX NVA LRE POU BIR SGY ARX RTK BNP 2.5x AAV RRX PEY TOG KEL PXX CPG SRX BXE WCP ARX LRE TOG 2015 Estimated Net Debt / Funds Flow PPY POU CQE TBE WCP TOU PXX DCK SGY RMP LXE PNE RMP CKE TBE PNE PNE Excluding Dividend Obligations A combination of low decline assets and low capital spend and overhead costs (debt, operating and general and administrative expenses) result in one of the strongest free funds flow companies in the industry 20.0% Source: September 25, 2014 National Bank Financial -14- SUSTAINABILITY FLAT PRODUCTION LEVELS AND FREE FUNDS FLOW AT ~$3.00/MCF GAS PRICE(1) $100,000 $75,000 $50,000 $25,000 $$1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $5.50 Sustaining Capex Funds Flow from Operations Source: Pine Cliff (1) Assumes 12,000 BOE/d production levels , 15% decline , historical expense levels and historical acquisition capital efficiency levels -15- HIGHLY LEVERAGED TO NAT GAS PRICING • Pine Cliff is one of the highest leveraged companies to increases in natural gas pricing as a result of low operating expenses and overhead, low decline, no hedging and minimal capital spending • Excluding the Q4-2014 acquisition, based on annualized Q3-2014 sales volumes and royalty rates, a $0.10 per mcf increase in AECO would add $1.5 million of funds flow or $0.007 per share 2015 Free Funds Flow Sensitivity 2015 Free Funds Flow Per Share Sensitivity +C$1.00/mcf PPY LXE CR POU ARX 2015 FFPS BNP MQL D/CF $45 $30 2.0x $15 1.0x $0 0.0x -1.0x -$15 $2.00 -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 3.0x 10.0% Source: September 23, 2014 Canaccord Genuity 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 2015E D/CF BXE 2015 Free cash flow ($mm) Free cash flow PEY -C$1.00/mcf 4.0x $60 PNE $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $3.78 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 AECO ($/mcf) Source: November 19, 2014 GMP Securities L.P. -16- A CONTRADICTORY RELATIONSHIP PINE CLIFF’S SHARE PRICE HAS HISTORICALLY INCREASED IN PERIODS OF DEPRESSED NATURAL GAS PRICING DUE TO ACQUISITIONS PNE Nymex Southern AB/SK Acquisition and Carrot Creek /Edson Acquisition Southern AB/SK Acquisition and Operatorship Monogram Acquisition Skope Debt Purchase Source: TSX Infosuite -17- NATURAL GAS OUTLOOK – DEMAND U.S. Gross LNG Exports U.S. Natural Gas Demand Growth in Electric Power Sector bcf/d bcf/d 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.1 4.5 Forecast 4.0 4.0 3.0 Forecast 3.5 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.3 3.0 1.0 2.5 2.2 - 2.0 -0.4 (1.0) 1.5 1.1 (2.0) 1.0 0.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (4.0) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year over Year Natural Gas Demand Growth U.S. Net Exports of Natural Gas to Mexico 6.0 5.3 4.8 5.0 4.3 3.7 4.0 3.0 2.3 1.8 Forecast YoY Nat Gas Demand Growth (bcf/d) bcf/d 1.7 2009 Source: September 24, 2014 First Energy; EIA Source: September 24, 2014 First Energy; EIA 2.0 2008 4.0 14 12 3.0 10 8 2.0 6 4 1.0 2 1.0 0.0 0 2011 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: September 24, 2014 First Energy; EIA 2015 2016 2017 2018 Cum Nat Gas Demand Growth (bcf/d) 0.0 (2.6) (3.0) 0.1 0.0 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E Cum (right axis) Industrial Mexico Exports Industrial (Upside) Electric Power (Upside) LNG Exports Source: Raymond James, EIA, Kootenay 2016E 2017E Electric Power -18- NATURAL GAS OUTLOOK – SUPPLY U.S. End of October Storage Levels Est. Daily Western Canada Storage Levels bcf bcf 4,000 3,929 3,900 3,866 3,820 3,816 3,787 3,800 3,700 3,571 3,600 Forecast 3,500 3,400 3,300 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: September 24, 2014 FirstEnergy; US DOE/EIA Source: FirstEnergy U.S. Natural Gas Supply Growth U.S. Natural Gas Rig Count bcf/d 6.0 1,000 5.0 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.0 3.6 4.0 4.3 3.0 800 600 2.0 1.0 3.8 Forecast 400 0.8 200 Apr Dec 1Jan 3 5 Feb 7 9 Mar 11 13 15 17 19May 21 23Jun 25 27Jul 29 31Aug 33 35Sep 37 39Oct 41 43 Nov 45 47 49 51 0.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: September 24, 2014 FirstEnergy; EIA 2014 2013 2012 2011 Source: Baker Hughes -19- 2014 PLANS AND GUIDANCE CAPITAL BUDGET IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN PROJECTED CASH FLOW • Capital Budget of $13.6 million • December 31, 2014 exit rate production of 11,900 to 12,100 boe per day • Use monthly funds flow to repay debt drawn for the October 1, 2014 Shallow Gas Transaction • Continue to seek acquisitions to expand our portfolio -20- WHY INVEST IN PINE CLIFF • Balance sheet strength allowing flexibility for future transactions • Proven track record of delivering superior long-term results for shareholders • High-quality assets with low operating costs and one of the lowest decline rates in the industry • Highly leveraged to increases in natural gas prices • Proven access to capital to take advantage of opportunities in an active A&D market • Management team and the board are highly aligned with shareholder interests • Continues to be a “buyers market” for natural gas assets -21- APPENDIX – ANALYST COVERAGE The following analysts provide research report coverage on Pine Cliff: COMPANY ANALYST AltaCorp Capital Patrick O’Rourque Canaccord Genuity Anthony Petrucci Clarus Securities Inc. Robert Paré FirstEnergy Capital Katrina Karkkainen GMP Securities Aaron Swanson Haywood Securities Inc. Dan Tsubouchi Jennings Capital Inc. Mark Heim National Bank Financial Inc. Dan Payne Paradigm Capital Ken Lin By posting this list, Pine Cliff does not imply endorsement of or agreement with the information, conclusions or recommendations provided in the reports. Pine Cliff does not distribute electronic copies of analyst reports. -22- CORPORATE INFORMATION BOARD OF DIRECTORS Gary J. Drummond George F. Fink Philip B. Hodge Randy M. Jarock Carl R. Jonsson OFFICERS George F. Fink HEAD OFFICE 850, 1015 – 4th Street SW Calgary, Alberta T2R 1J4 Phone: (403) 269-2289 Fax: (403) 265-7488 REGISTRAR AND TRANSFER AGENT Computershare Trust Company of Canada STOCK EXCHANGE LISTING TSX Venture Exchange Trading Symbol: PNE WEBSITE www.pinecliffenergy.com Investor Contact info@pinecliffenergy.com Executive Chairman of the Board Philip B. Hodge President and Chief Executive Officer Robb D. Thompson Chief Financial Officer and Secretary Kristi L. Barr Vice President Finance AUDITORS Deloitte LLP BANKERS Alberta Treasury Branch Terry L. McNeill Vice President Operations -23-
© Copyright 2024