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Iraq
Weekly Security Report
December 23, 2014
Security Analysis
December 16 - 22, 2014
Executive Summary
• Kurdish forces deliver a lightning assault across Nineveh to break the siege of Mount Sinjar as ISIS and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) units engage in a heated battle for control of Baiji town.
• ISIS re-direct armor for assault on Haditha, as coalition air strikes are repeatedly launched to prevent militants
from gaining ground.
• The security environment across the south improves with the passing of the pilgrimage season, with low-level
violence largely confined to the poorer suburbs of Basra, Karbala and remote tribal areas over the reporting
period.
National Overview
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)
hosted a series of diplomatic missions and
foreign conferences this week, as Peshmerga troops celebrated some of the most
decisive military victories since the start of
the ISIS counter-offensive in August 2014.
While heavy fighting continues to rage
across Anbar and the central territories,
aid convoys to the besieged inhabitants
of Mount Sinjar are now reported to have
resumed following the removal of ISIS units
from positions across disputed areas of
Nineveh province, with European Union
(EU) chiefs pledging increased humanitarian
and military support to the KRG authorities
over the coming year in a sign of growing
international recognition for the regional
authority. While officially unrelated to wider
political developments, the arrival of Prime
Minister Abadi in Erbil December 23 is also
likely to reflect the growing stature of Barzani’s government, amid a wider policy of
détente by the Baghdad administration.
Northern Region
Kurdish forces deliver a lightning
assault across Nineveh to break
the siege of Mount Sinjar as
ISIS-ISF units engage in a heated
battle for control of Baiji town.
Peshmerga units advance deep into north-western
areas of Nineveh province as ISIS forces contest ISF
control in Baiji and Anbar.
DAHUK
NINEVEH
ERBIL
KIRKUK
SULAIMANIYA
SALAHUDDIN
DIYALA
BAGHDAD
ANBAR
KARBALA BABIL
WASIT
QADISIYA
Over 20 Incidents
NAJAF
MAYSAN
DHI QAR
Over 10 Incidents
Over Five Incidents
BASRA
MUTHANNA
At Least One Incident
No Incidents
Reported Violent Incidents December 16 - 22, 2014
In a carefully planned advance, combining KRG
Peshmerga, coalition air support, Syrian Kurdistan
National Army (YPG), Yazidi tribal militias and allied
forces inflicted a series of dramatic defeats on ISIS
units this week, regaining control of districts west
of Mosul and bringing the front line all the way to
Security Analysis
December 16 - 22, 2014
the militant strongholds of Tal Afar and Sinjar town.
Starting December 17, villages and neighborhoods
were cleared west of Hardan close to the KRG border,
facilitating the advance of Peshmerga artillery and
elite troops to bombard ISIS infrastructure. Driving
the operation appears to have been the objective of
ending the ISIS encirclement of the remaining Yazidi
population on Mount Sinjar, achieved on December
19 with the opening of a direct road between the
refugee camps and the Kurdish hub of Dahuk. Aerial
cover provided by coalition forces once again played
a decisive role in maintaining the allied momentum,
also likely to have been aided by the diversion of large
numbers of ISIS units to the battlefields of Baiji and
Diyala this week. Should the Kurdish forces be able to
maintain these new acquisitions, supply routes to the
militant-held city of Mosul are expected to become
increasingly constrained over the coming month.
Central Region
ISIS redirect armor for assault on
Haditha, as coalition air strikes
are repeatedly launched to
prevent militants from gaining
ground. Security environment in
Baghdad remains unchanged. Signs of an impending offensive in western Anbar were first recorded on
December 18 when large groups of militant fighters
began to gather around the outlying suburbs of
Haditha, sparking concerns among local ISF units as
ISIS tanks and armored vehicles began to move from
Ramadi and across the Syrian border. While initial
forays into the town were halted on December 20
by the intervention of French air support, militants
continue to challenge ISF for control of Baghdad
and other outlying suburbs with further assaults
expected over the coming week. As the last major
outposts of government control between Hit and the
Syrian border, the loss of Haditha and the nearby Ain
al-Asad air base would prove disastrous to ISF’s Anbar
campaign and is likely to be resisted at all costs. To
the south-east, militant operations were primarily
directed in the capital’s southernmost district,
Mahmudiya, with fighters deploying a VBIED on
December 18 amid multiple armed raids on checkpoints in a bid to challenge ISF dominance for the
strategic “gateway of Baghdad.”
Southern Region
The security environment across
the south has improved with
the passing of the pilgrimage
season, with low-level violence
largely confined to the poorer
suburbs of Basra, Karbala and remote tribal
areas over the reporting period. ISF operations
in the southern Baghdad suburbs close to Jurf-al
Sakhar have now been resumed and are currently
proving effective in blocking ISIS incursions from
the group’s local headquarters in nearby Fallujah.
While major attacks, including VBIED strikes against
ISF checkpoints represent a potential threat in the
northern Babil area, a more pressing danger is the
risk of IEDs and other concealed explosives, which
continue to be reported by Iraqi Army sweeps in the
Mahawl and Misiab neighborhoods. By contrast, ISIS
activity south of Babil has all but ceased for the present. Where shooting incidents continue to occur, as
witnessed in the case of the attempted assassination
of a former education director in Abu al Khasaib on
December 18, local rather than ideological grievances remain the chief motivation.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
14 - 20 21 - 27 28 - 3 4 - 10 11 - 17 18 - 24 25 - 1
OCT
NOV
2-8
9 - 15 16 - 22
DEC
Fatalities Nationwide, by Week
Key Security Events
December 16 - 22, 2014
Nationwide Fatalities: 399
DAHUK
Dahuk
Rabia
Nineveh, December 16 - 22:
Peshmerga units supported by coalition air
cover and Yazidi fighters launch an offensive to
retake ground north-west of Mosul and Tel Afar,
advancing to the center of Sinjar and recapturing several neighborhoods inside the city.
Mosul Dam
Sinjar Tal Afar
Mosul
Erbil
ERBIL
NINEVEH
Sulaymaniyah
Kirkuk
Sharqat
SULAIMANIYA
Hawija
KIRKUK
Baiji
Tikrit
Tuz Khurma
Sulaiman Beg
SALAHUDDIN
Anbar, December 16:
US Special Forces engaged ISIS forces close to
the Asad base in western Anbar, acting in self
defense while deployed to assist the arming
of local Iraqi fighters. The US Department
of Defense has not yet commented on the
incident.
Al Qairm
Samarra
Dhuluiya
Haditha
Jalawla
Khanaqin
Sadia
Khalis
Muqdadiyah
DIYALA
Baqubah
Hit
Ramadi
BAGHDADBaghdad
Fallujah Abu Ghraib
ANBAR
Al Hillah
KARBALA
Karbala BABIL
LEGEND
NAJAF
ISIS Controlled City
Kurdish
Controlled City
Contested City
ISF Controlled City
Peshmerga
Controlled Areas
Salahuddin, December 18:
Unspecified aircraft carried out air
strikes in the Asri neighborhood of Baiji
town, killing a total of 14 ISIS fighters
and destroying six vehicles.
Taji
Al Kut
WASIT
Al Amarah
An Najaf Ad
QADISIYA
Diwaniyah
Kurdistan
Nineveh, December 20:
Members of the Counter Terrorism
Services airdropped into the rebel-held
Tal Afar airport, engaging ISIS fighters
while coalition forces carried out air
strikes.
Makhmour
MAYSAN
As Samawab An Nasiriyah
DHI QAR
Al Basrah
BASRA
MUTHANNA
Baghdad, December 20:
Two 107mm rockets landed in the
Baghdad Green Zone, injuring two ISF
and causing minor material damage
to an ISF parade ground. Sources in
the MoI confirmed the rounds were
launched from the Dora area in southern Baghdad.
News Summary
December 16 - 22, 2014
Politics and Security
• First ground clash between ISIS and US forces in
Iraq – Shafaq News. An American force has fought its
actual first battle against the Islamic State of Iraq and
Syria (ISIS) organization during a counter-attack that was
carried out by tribal forces and other forces of the Iraqi
army near Ein al-Asad base, west of Anbar, in an attempt
to remove them from the base which includes about
100 US advisers. A field commander of the Iraqi Army in
Anbar province said that “the US force equipped with
light and medium weapons, supported by F-18 fighters,
was able to inflict casualties against ISIS fighters, and
forced them to retreat from the al-Dolab area, which lies
10 kilometers from Ain al-Assad base. Full Article
• ISIS governor of Mosul wounded, not killed.–
Rudaw. The Islamic State (ISIS) governor of Mosul, Abu
Talut, was wounded in an American air strike, a source
inside the city told Rudaw, dismissing earlier reports that
he had been killed. The source said that Hassan Saeed
al-Bubouri, known as Abu Talut was seriously wounded
as his position was hit by a fighter jet and that he is being
treated at Mosul’s al-Jamhuri Hospital. Abu Talut was
appointed governor (Wali) earlier this month after his
predecessor Radhwan Hamdouni, known as Abu Laith,
was killed along with the group’s military commander in
an air strike near Mosul. The radical group changed the
name of Mosul to Wilayat Naynawa (Nineveh State) after
declaring the Islamic State in July. Full Article
• US to send more military advisors to Iraq, mainly
Anbar province – Rudaw. Outgoing US Secretary of
Defense Chuck Hagel authorized the deployment of up
to 1,300 American troops to Iraq early next year to assist
and advise Iraqi and Kurdish forces in the fight against
the ISIS, the Pentagon said on Friday. “Their mission will
be to train, advise and assist Iraqi security forces. This
deployment is part of the additional 1,500 troops that
the president authorized in November,” Press Secretary
John Kirby told reporters at a Pentagon briefing. The
announcement of the additional deployment will put the
number of US troops who will serve in Iraq and Kurdistan
Region at around 4,000. Full Article
Peshmerga Forces Heave ISIS
Away from Mount Sinjar
Kurdish peshmerga forces backed by US-led air
strikes pushed Islamic State militants out of a large
area around Mount Sinjar in northern Iraq, according
to Kurdish officials.“We have managed to free
3,000 square kilometers during the last 24 hours,”
Massoud Barzani, the president Iraqi Kurdistan, told
reporters on top of Mount Sinjar. “Most of Sinjar is
under our control now and with the help of God, we
will free all of it.”The Kurdistan regional government
mobilized close to 10,000 peshmerga fighters last
week in an ongoing operation to drive Isis from the
Sinjar area, which is near the Syrian border.
“Peshmerga forces continue to advance inside
Sinjar, engaging and suppressing ISIS positions,”
said a statement from Kurdistan’s national security
council. It added that between 250 and 300 jihadi
militants had been killed since the offensive began
on Wednesday, 50 of whom were killed overnight on
Saturday. ISIS has held the area since August, when
tens of thousands of people, mainly members of the
Yazidi religion, one of Iraq’s oldest minorities, were
forced to flee to Mount Sinjar or face slaughter at the
hands of the advancing militants
Source: The Guardian. Full Article
News Summary
December 16 - 22, 2014
Economics and Business
• Kurdish exports to rise despite falling oil prices –
Rudaw. Despite falling prices of oil, Kurdish oil exports
are expected to rise dramatically in 2015, oil producers
and government officials told a conference in London
on Wednesday. “We take a long term view on prices,”
Ian MacDonald, a Chevron executive overseeing the
region’s production told an industry audience of the
Kurdistan Oil and Gas Conference. Although benchmark
Brent oil prices have now fallen below $60 a barrel for
the first time since mid-2009, the oil giant executive said
that “prices haven’t affected our assets in the Kurdistan
Region.” Industry insiders credit the dramatic rise of
American shale gas and a drop in global demand with
the tumbling cost of crude. Cheap oil is good for consumers but can be catastrophic for oil producing nations
that depend on hydrocarbon revenues. Full Article
• BP plans to double Rumaila production. The
coming year will see British Petroleum (BP) expand
drilling work and upgrades to equipment at the vast
Rumaila oil field in southern Iraq, in which the company
has a 50 percent stake. BP operates the field with PetroChina, Iraq’s South Oil Company and State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO). This work is carried out under
the umbrella of the Rumaila Operating Organization,
which oversees activity at a field which is thought to
have some 20 billion barrels available for extraction.
Some observers have noted that BP has played a “long
game” in Iraq and that their patience with contractual
difficulties and initial security concerns is paying off. Full
Article
Key Upcoming Dates
December 30 Anniversary of the
Death of Saddam
Hussein
January 3
Milad un Nabi
(Prophet Muhammad’s
Birthday)
Iraq Says Jordan to Begin
Training Iraqi Troops Soon
Jordan will begin training the first group of army
troops from neighboring Iraq in the next few weeks
as part of the international effort to fight Islamic
State, the Iraqi defense minister said on Monday.
Speaking after meeting Jordanian King Abdullah,
Khaled al Obeidi said Amman would also supply the
Iraqi army with arms needed for its drawn-out fight
against the radical Islamists who have seized wide
swathes of the north and west of his country.
Obeidi aims to rebuild the Iraqi army, which fell
apart last summer in the face of Islamic State’s blitz
across northern Iraq during which at least four Iraqi
divisions crumbled. “I think in the next weeks the
first batch of Iraqi army will get training in Jordan,”
the defense minister told Reuters in Amman. “The
arms warehouses of Jordan from weapons and
ammunition will be open to the Iraqi army.” King
Abdullah, a US ally whose country has joined the
military campaign against Islamic State militants in
Syria, said on Sunday it was crucial to support both
Iraqi and Syrian tribes threatened by Islamic State
fighters.
Source: Reuters. Full Article
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