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Market Report
21 January 2015
2014 November
2014
Important events for next week:
Friday: Last trading day for January contracts
INDEX TABLE
CBOT March Corn
CBOT March Wheat
CBOT March Soya
R/$
Brent Crude Spot
Previous day
12pm
3.8350
5.3125
9.8425
11.6312
48.69
Present
day
3.9200
5.4300
9.8825
11.5782
48.37
Change
8.50
11.75
4.00
-0.053
-0.32
CBOT
$/mt
154.32
199.51
363.11
SA $/mt
177.23
342.19
458.79
Implied Parity
Move
R 30.74
R 39.64
-R 2.15
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
CORN/MAIZE
CBOT – March ▲3.25c/bu @ 390.25c
Overnights – March ▲1.00c/bu @ 391.25c
 Corn found support from higher ethanol prices despite weakness in crude oil
 There was also support from technicals as well as good US export inspections
 Funds bought around 8k contracts
WHEAT
CBOT– March ▲4.25c/bu @ 537.00c
Overnights – March ▲5.75c/bu @ 542.75c
 CBOT wheat prices closed higher for the first time in 9 sessions
 There are hopes that US exports will pick up soon as prices become more competitive in world
markets
 The market also found support from renewed signs of unrest between Russia and Ukraine
 Technically wheat prices are oversold adding support
SOYA COMPLEX
Soya Beans – March ▼9.75c/bu @ 982.00c
Overnights – March ▲5.00c/bu @ 987.00c
Soya Meal - March ▲2.30@ $329.00/short ton; Soya Oil - March ▼5c@ 32.94c/lb.
 Bean prices drifted lower last night as US exports are poised to slow down as world importers
focus their attention on South America
 The USDA announced another cancellation of 170kmt of US beans previously sold to China.
Last week China cancelled 459kmt. Traders feel the cancellations could reach 1.5 – 2mmt but
this could be higher as China has 6mmt of orders which still have to be shipped and US
exporters are battling to get LC’s opened
 Brazil’s weather however is still a concern with key growing areas remaining dry
SAFEX PREVIOUS DAY MTM
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
Yellow
Maize
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
White Maize
M-T-M
Jan WM
R 1 999
-16
226
-218
Jan YM
R 2 014
-1
106
-2
Feb WM
R 2 012
7
79
4
Feb YM
R 2 026
1
38
1
Mar WM
R 2 033
16
13 538
-274
Mar YM
R 2 052
-4
6 272
-315
May WM
R 2 040
3
360
3
May YM
R 2 059
-3
399
-3
Jul WM
R 2 035
-14
6 634
58
Jul YM
R 2 052
-26
7 489
255
Sep WM
R 2 071
17
287
-3
Sep YM
R 2 091
-7
122
0
Dec WM
R 2 130
-5
48
0
Dec YM
R 2 144
-19
51
6
Corn in
Rands
M-T-M
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
Change
Mar Corn
R 1 771
-19
1 645
42
Jan Wht
R 3 905
0
86
-14
Jul Corn
R 1 869
3
2 963
88
Feb Wht
R 3 912
0
4
0
Dec Corn
R 1 977
20
86
0
Mar Wht
R 3 962
-3
19 718
-416
May Wht
R 4 008
0
1 723
-62
Jul Wht
R 4 037
0
1 565
15
Sep Wht
R 3 900
81
885
5
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
Change
Change
Wheat
Change
M-T-M
M-T-M
Change
Change
(R)
Open
Interest
R 5 020
-10
84
-12
Jan Soya
R 5 733
-12
202
-75
Feb Suns
R 4 950
0
1
0
Feb Soya
R 5 628
-2
250
0
Mar Suns
R 4 880
-45
1 465
-28
Mar Soya
R 5 312
-37
2 888
-98
May Suns
R 4 590
20
976
53
May Soya
R 4 791
-38
3 740
-105
Jul Suns
R 4 640
21
73
36
Jul Soya
R 4 871
-32
154
0
R0
0
-
0
Sep Soya
R 4 946
-14
115
0
Sunflower
M-T-M
Jan Suns
Sep Suns
Soya
Change
M-T-M
Maize prices closed mixed yesterday with little direction from the CBOT/ Rand parity indication
and ideas that Monday’s limit up move was a bit overdone. There are also slightly better chances
for rain over the western regions.
COMMENTARY
SA Weekly Exports:
Exports for week ending 16 January '15
Countries
WM
YM
Exports
Botswana
5 481
562
Japan
0
Rep. of Korea
0
Lesotho
2 393
Mozambique
2 013
302
Namibia
4 080
569
Swaziland
1 037
820
Taiwan
Zimbabwe
Total
15 004
2 253
Total
6 043
2 393
2 315
4 649
1 857
17 257
Total Exports and Imports from 26 Apr'14 to 16 Jan '15
WM
YM
Total
1 746
384 873
1 361 711
584
Exports
Imports
Maize Exports per Country - 26 Apr'14 to 16 Jan'15
To
Angola
WM
YM
TOTAL
0
1 011
1 011
Botswana
117 870
20 835
138 705
Cameroon
0
3 540
3 540
Italy
0
50 078
50 078
Japan
0
198 197
198 197
Korea
2 188
214 474
216 662
Lesotho
82 324
7 714
90 038
Mozambique
64 384
18 472
82 856
Namibia
43 811
24 258
68 069
Portugal
0
52 499
52 499
Saudi Arabia
0
55 959
55 959
16 866
31 972
48 838
0
679 185
679 185
57 430
3 517
60 947
384 873
1 361 711
1 746 584
Swaziland
Taiwan
Zimbabwe
Total
Rand: The rand was mostly flat against the dollar yesterday, clawing back most of its earlier
losses, although it is likely to stay under pressure in a market now seeing some chance of an
interest rate cut this month.
The rand is likely to lose ground, with weak domestic growth, coupled with receding inflation
pressures due to a sharp drop in oil prices, leaving the door open for the South African Reserve
Bank to loosen monetary policy this year.
The bank will hold its first 2015 policy meeting ending on Jan. 29.
"The rand faces headwinds this year with the United States likely to start lifting interest rates while
domestically economic growth will be constrained by electricity supply limitations," Investec analyst
Annabel Bishop said.
P
WEATHER
SA: 2- week forecast:
Sakkie Nigrini – Netfor: Die groen omkringde gebied is waar daar enkele buie en of donderbuie
voorkom vanoggend maar dit is nie baie nie. Chedza is nou so te sê ‘n koue front en mens kan
nou net hoop dat daar ten minste weer enkele los hittestorms sal begin voorkom oor die sentrale
en noordelike binneland. Die oppervlakte toestande is puik maar die bolug is nie so goed nie, so
dit is mog het troffe storms wat kan voorkom in die geel strook soos aangetoon. Die blou oor die
Laeveld en dele van KZN is bewolk vanoggend met mis op plekke wat beteken die sig is beperk
en sal veral geldig wees teen die oostelike platorand. Met die oppervlakte hoog oos van die land is
die vloei weer aflandig oor die westelike en suid-westelike dele en dit gaan weer bloedig warm
word oor die streke, die enigste strook waar dit dalk houbaar sal wees is as jy by die see of liewer
amper op die see bly!! Niks dramaties nie, uitgesluit die bloedige warm toestande maar dit is
normaal vir die tyd van die jaar, die druiwe hou van erge hitte, as ek reg onthou word die druiwe
erg soet met hitte, so hopelik kry ons hier in die noorde ook van daai lekker soet druiwe!!
International:
US: Southern Plains areas will receive very light precipitation as rain and snow during the next
couple days. Overall conditions are favourable for wheat; however, due to above-normal
temperatures and no winterkill threat.
South America: In central Brazil, dry and very warm to hot conditions are in store the next three
days. Showers are forecast by the end of the week with moderate precipitation. This will be an
important rain event should it verify. Early harvest yields are showing some average to aboveaverage performance.
Across southern Brazil, generally favourable trends for developing crops, including several
occurrences of rain showers, are forecast through the balance of the week.
Argentina's crop areas will receive light to locally moderate rain during the next three days.
Conditions are mostly favourable for crops. Pollination is beginning on corn.
Black Sea: Most winter wheat in Ukraine and Russia has a significant snowpack, and is not
threatened by any cold weather. There is some minor winterkill potential in northern Ukraine where
snow cover is patchier.
PIVOT POINTS
Intraday Pivot Points
Second Resistance
First Resistance
Pivot
First Support
Second Support
Mar WM
2074
2052
2035
2014
1997
Mar YM
2110
2080
2061
2031
2012
Mar
Corn
1782
1776
1772
1767
1762
Mar
Wheat
4013
3987
3973
3947
3933
Mar
Suns
5013
4937
4898
4822
4783
Mar Soya
5371
5343
5321
5293
5271
CONTACT DETAILS
POINTS
Pretoria
274 Emus Erasmus Ave
Erasmusrand
Pretoria
012 940 8347
John
012 940 8349
cell: 082 456 7434
john@agcomsa.co.za
Juanita
Tel: 012 940 8348
cell: 084 824 0902
juanita@agcomsa.co.za
P.O. Box 25082
Monument Park, 0105
The information contained in this report has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources which we believe are reliable. Agcom
(Pty) Ltd does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect
judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading. Any reproduction or
retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Agcom (Pty) Ltd is strictly prohibited.
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