1. real estate

2011
2014
Quarter
QUARTER
Quarter
second
FOURTH
second
VIRGINIA
VIRGINIA
Home
HomeSAleS
SAleSRepoRt
RepoRt
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
® ®
Published
by by
Virginia
association
of reaLtors
, the
advocate
for for
Published
Virginia
association
of reaLtors
, the
advocate
realreal
estate
professionals
andand
property
owners
in Virginia.
estate
professionals
property
owners
in Virginia.
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q4
Fourth Quarter Market Summary
Sales increased substantially in December, a strong finish for the Virginia 2014
real estate market. Overall, Virginia experienced 2.3% more sales in 2014-Q4
compared to 2013-Q4. The number of sales increased year-over-year in every
region of Virginia except for Northern Virginia. The changes in number of sales
in Virginia has tracked the trajectory of sales in the United States as whole fairly
consistently throughout the year.
The median sales price in Virginia has increased since November, while the
median sales price for the United States as a whole has decreased steadily since
June. The 2014-Q4 median sales price in Virginia is 2.4% higher than in 2013Q4. Only the Central Valley and Southside Virginia experienced a year-over-year
decrease in median sales price.
Overall, the Virginia real estate market performed well in the fourth quarter,
with a 4.9% increase in volume over the fourth quarter of 2013. Even though
we cannot predict the trajectory of sales in the first quarter based on 2014Q4 performance and historic trends, the decreasing unemployment rate and
mortgage interest rates will encourage buyers. Rising prices may provide some
extra impetus for both buyers and sellers to enter the market.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 2
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q4
2011
2012
2013
2014
VIRGINIA
MONTH-TO-MONTH
SALES
TRENDS
Virginia
Month-to-Month
Sales
Trends
SINGLE FAMILY
HOMES,
TOWNHOMES,
CONDOS
Single
Family Homes,
Condos
12,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
12,000
Number of Single Family, Townhomes and Condo sales
10,000
10,000
8,000
8,000
6,000
6,000
4,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
0
JANUARY
0
FEBRUARY
Jan
MARCH
Feb
APRIL
Mar
MAY
Apr
JUNE
May
JULY
MONTH
Jun
AUGUST
Jul
SEPTEMBER
Aug
Sep
OCTOBER
Oct
NOVEMBER
Nov
DECEMBER
Dec
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Jan
2011
4,728
2013
5,528
2012
2014
5,068
5,377
Feb
5,116
5,775
5,911
5,654
Mar
7,145
7,213
7,456
7,086
Apr
7,311
7,698
8,660
8,446
May
8,391
9,064
Jun
9,223
9,740
Jul
7,970
8,664
Aug
8,136
9,026
10,454 10,763 10,344 10,104
9,629
10,544 10,091
9,389
Sep
6,916
7,213
8,138
8,252
Oct
6,263
7,261
7,887
8,370
Nov
6,070
7,400
6,882
6,553
Dec
6,758
6,838
7,356
8,045
Virginia experienced a high number of sales in December, after low sales in November. Although
December sales finished the year strong, they do not set a precedent for 2015-Q1. Sales are typically
lower in January than in December and in previous years, when sales increased in December there
were not significant increases in the following January. Nonetheless, the rebound in sales is a good
indicator that Virginia will start out the new year with a year-over-year increase in sales, and possibly
perform better than 2013.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 3
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q4
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
35,000
29,962
30,000
28,728
28,616
27,433
26,502
24,911
25,000
23,001
22,458
+2.3%
21,509
20,000
19,099
18,056
22,968
YOY
18,910
18,117
15,000
10,000
2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4
Quarter
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The pace of home sales was 2.3% higher in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to the fourth quarter
of 2013. Fourth quarter sales have increased each year since 2011. Although high fourth quarter sales
do not consistently lead to high first quarter sales, the real estate market’s performance in December is
a good indicator that sales may be relatively high through the remaining winter months. Further, high
fourth quarter sales may be evidence that decreasing unemployment and low mortgage interest rates
may be influencing market activity.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 4
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q4
Virginia Annualized Residential Sales
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
110,000
99,109
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
100,000
100,058
99,265
97,919
95,292
90,978
96,624
97,134
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
91,832
88,568
90,000
83,570
84,111
2011-Q3
2011-Q4
85,062
86,658
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
2012-Q1
2012-Q2
2012-Q3
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
Quarter
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Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter
shown. For example, the 2014-Q4 figure (97,134 sales) includes home sales from January 2014 through
December 2014. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term
trends in Virginia’s real estate market.
The annualized sales metric increased by 510 sales from 2014-Q3 to 2014-Q4, but decreased by 2,924
sales year-over-year. Nonetheless, fourth quarter sales reversed the trend of deceasing sales in the
previous three quarters. The first quarter is still the slow selling season, but barring a particularly bleak
start to the new year, we can expect this metric to remain fairly steady.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 5
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q4
Regional Changes in Sales
2013-Q4 vs. 2014-Q4 Units
Northern Virginia
-2.0%
Central Valley
+16.7%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
+0.6%
Southwest Virginia
+14.5%
Central Virginia
+6.2%
Hampton Roads /
Chesapeake Bay
+2.6%
Southside Virginia
+22.6%
Region
2013-Q4
2014-Q4
Change
Central Virginia
3,642
3,868
6.2%
Central Valley
1,173
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
5,248
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
1,804
Northern Virginia
Southside Virginia
Southwest Virginia
All of Virginia
9,736
341
310
22,254
1,369
5,382
16.7%
2.6%
9,545
-2.0%
418
22.6%
22,752
2.2%
1,815
355
0.6%
14.5%
Almost every region of the state experienced more sales in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to
the fourth quarter of 2013, with the exception of Northern Virginia, where sales decreased by 2%. The
overall increase in sales was moderate, but some regions undoubtably felt an unexpected increase
in pace: the Central Valley experienced a 16.7% increase, representing 196 sales; Southside Virginia
experienced a 22.6% increase, representing 77 sales; and Southwest Virginia experienced a 14.5%
increase, representing 45 sales.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 6
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q4
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$255,000
$259,000
$267,000
$235,000
$254,000
$249,900
$233,000
$241,000
$248,000
$249,500
$220,000
$215,000
Median Sales Price
$250,000
$235,000
$269,900
$300,000
+2.4%
$200,000
$150,000
+13.7%
$100,000
2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4
Quarter
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The median sales price in Virginia increased 2.4% over the past year to $255,000. Looking at the longer
term trend, the median sales price has increased by 13.7% over 2011-Q4. The median sales price
decreased marginally from the third to fourth quarter of 2014, exhibiting the typical seasonal trend.
We can expect prices to continue to decrease in January 2015, but if interest rates remain low and
unemployment continues to decrease, prices may remain fairly steady through the first quarter 2015.
Given the real estate market performance over the previous two quarters we may even experience an
increase in median price in the first quarter.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 7
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q4
Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices
2013-Q4 vs. 2014-Q4
Northern Virginia
+2.2%
Central Valley
-4.2%
Central Virginia
+4.5%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
+5.6%
Southwest Virginia
+0.9%
Region
Central Valley
Hampton Roads /
Chesapeake Bay
+4.0%
Southside Virginia
-2.5%
2013-Q4
$217,000
2014-Q4
Change
4.5%
$207,900
Central Virginia
$195,000
$203,707
Northern Virginia
$362,000
$370,000
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
Southside Virginia
Southwest Virginia
All of Virginia
$199,000
$151,000
$84,900
$110,000
$249,000
$206,925
$159,400
-4.2%
4.0%
2.2%
5.6%
$82,800
-2.5%
$255,000
2.4%
$111,000
0.9%
Moderate year-over-year changes in median sales price were experienced consistently throughout
most of the state. The Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg region experienced the most significant
increase in median price. The Central Valley experienced the largest decrease in median price. For both
regions, this change represents a reversal of the year-over-year change in median price experienced in
the third quarter.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 8
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q4
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($M)
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
11,000
9913 10,000
9436 9297 8896 Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales
9,000
8197 8,000
7684 7,266 7,000
6926 6789 6,000
5498 5275 5,000
+4.9% YOY
6446 5332 4866 4,000
3,000
2,000
2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4
Quarter
This graph illustrates the dollar value of real estate sold (in millions) during each quarter over the past
three years. The volume of real estate sold in the fourth quarter of 2014 ($7.2 Billion) increased 4.9%
(year-over-year) from the fourth quarter of 2013 ($6.9 Billion). This year-over-year increase is a product
of the marginal increases in the pace of sales and sale prices, nearly in equal measure.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 9
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q4
Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales
Single
FamilyHomes,
Homes, Townhomes,
Condos
Single
Family
Townhomes,
Condos
2013-Q4
2013-Q2
-25%
+25%
4253
56
$2M
$2M++
40
14%
+28%
5691
78
$1.5M --$2M
$1.5M
$2M
104
450
636
691
$750K --$1M
$750K
$1M
Price Range
Price
Range
3%
+6.8%
276 438
296
$1M -- $1.5M
$1M
$1.5M
2014-Q4
2014-Q2
1,017
+8%
1,030
1%
2,269
2,314
$500K --$750K
$500K
$750K
2,078
2,122
$400K --$500K
$400K
$500K
+2%
3,648
3,202
+2%3,041
-7%
2,823
3,370
3,547
$300K --$400K
$300K
$400K
-12%
+5.0%
4,733
4,441
-6%
5,091
5,276
$200K --$300K
$200K
$300K
+3.5%
5,856
5,962
$100K --$200K
$100K
$200K
6,708
6,551
+1.8%
6,791
-2%
7,224
-6%
2,7923,010
2,6262,816 -6.3%
-6%
00 --$100K
$100K
00
500
500
1,000
1,000
1,500
1,500
2,000
2,000
2,500
2,500
3,000
3,000
3,500
3,500
4,000
4,000
4,500
4,500
5,000
5,000
5,500
5,500
Number
of Single
Family,
and
Condo
Sales
Number
of Single
Family,Townhome
Townhome and
Condo
Sales
6,000
6,000
6,500
6,500
7,000
7,000
7,500
7,500
8,000
8,000
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There were more sales of homes in all price categories in the fourth quarter of 2014, except the $0$100K range, compared to the fourth quarter of 2013. The increase in year-over-year sales was most
substantial in the $1.5M-$2M price range (28%) and $2M+ price range (25%). Since this price range
always contains a very small number of sales, dramatic fluctuation in percent change measurements
are normal. Low sales in the $0-100K range may result from low levels of inventory in this category or
higher financial barriers for buyers in this market segment.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 10
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q4
Virginia Average Days On Market
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
120
100
100
103
93
85
88
92
91
84
Average Days On Market
81
80
80
71
73
71
73
+1.2%YOY
60
40
20
0
2011-Q3
2011-Q4
2012-Q1
2012-Q2
2012-Q3
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
Quarter
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Days on the market increased 1.2% year-over-year. The fourth and first quarters are normally the least
active quarters, so we can expect to see a continued increase of days on the market heading into the
first quarter of 2015.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 11
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q4
Regional Changes in Foreclosures
2014-Q3 vs. 2014-Q4
Northern Virginia
+16%
Central Valley
+26%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
-45%
Southwest Virginia
+50%
Central Virginia
-18%
Hampton Roads /
Chesapeake Bay
-5%
Southside Virginia
+44%
Region
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
Change
Central Virginia
207
170
-18%
295
343
16%
Central Valley
23
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
405
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
143
Northern Virginia
Southside Virginia
Southwest Virginia
All of Virginia
16
14
1,103
29
383
26%
-5%
79
-45%
21
50%
23
1,048
44%
-5%
Virginia experienced a 5% decrease in foreclosures in the fourth quarter of 2014, but more than
half of the regions experienced an increase in foreclosures. Both Southside and Southwest Virginia
experienced 7 more foreclosures and the Central Valley experienced 6 more foreclosures. The majority
of foreclosures (48) were in Northern Virginia. Nonetheless, foreclosures have steadily decreased over
the long term. The number of foreclosures this quarter is the lowest number Virginia has experienced
since the housing crisis.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 12
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q4
Monthly Residential Sales
VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)
16,000
600,000
14,000
500,000
12,000
10,000
332,000
314,000
300,000
8,000
6,000
6,882
4,000
6,553
200,000
100,000
2,000
0
400,000
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
(p)
Jul-14
(p)
Aug-14
(p)
Sep-14
(p)
Oct-14
(p)
Nov-14
(p)
0
The pace of Virginia home sales tracks the United States sales pace fairly closely and has continued to
do so throughout 2014. Sales in the United States as a whole and in Virginia decreased gradually since
October.
Monthly Residential Median Sales Price
VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)
$300,000
$250,000
$245,000
$250,000
$196,200
$206,200
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$100,000
$50,000
$300,000
Nov-13 Dec-13
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Apr-14 May-14
(p)
Jun-14
(p)
July-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
(p)
(p)
(p)
Oct-14
(p)
Nov-14
(p)
$50,000
Changes in median sales price in Virginia also consistently track changes in price in the United States
as a whole. Median sales price is consistently higher in Virginia and the difference between prices in
Virginia and the United States as a whole increased in November. Virginia’s median sales price has
increased since October, while the median sales price in the United States as a whole has decreased
steadily since June.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 13
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q4
Virginia Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics
7%
6%
6.2%
5.9%
6.0%
5.9%
6%
5.6%
5%
5.3%
5.5%
5.8%
5.5%
5.4%
4.9%
5.1%
5.0%
5%
4%
2011-Q4
2012-Q1
2012-Q2
2012-Q3
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2014-Q4 unemployment rate based on preliminary November 2014 data.
Unemployment rates by state,
seasonally adjusted, November 2014
(U.S. rate = 5.8 percent)
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14.0% and over
12.0% to 13.9%
10.0% to 11.9%
8.0% to 9.9%
6.0% to 7.9%
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Local Area Unemployment Statistics
4.0% to 5.9%
3.9% or below
Virginia’s unemployment rate decreased in the fourth quarter of 2014 to 5% in November. The United
States unemployment rate decreased in November to 5.8%, 0.3% lower than August. The United
States unemployment rate decreased further in December to 5.6%, so Virginia’s unemployment rate
may have dropped below 5% (Virginia’s December unemployment rate has not yet been released).
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 14
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q4
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates
Source: FreddieMac
4.6%
4.44%
4.4%
4.30%
4.2%
4.0%
4.01%
3.8%
3.92%
4.36%
4.23%
4.14%
3.97%
3.80%
3.6%
3.69%
3.54%
3.4%
3.50%
3.36%
3.2%
3.0%
2011-Q4
2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4
2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4
2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4
Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates
Source: FreddieMac
3.6%
3.4%
3.2%
3.5%
3.3%
3.4%
3.2%
3.4%
3.3%
3.3%
3.2%
3.0%
3.0%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.7%
2.9%
2.4%
2.2%
2.0%
2011-Q4
2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4
2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4
2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4
Both 30-year and 15-year mortgage interest rates have decreased since the 2014-Q1. This continual
decrease in rates, the expectation of increased rates in the spring, and increasing prices may be
encouraging sales. These trends are certainly reasons to believe that the spring selling season may
begin early.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 15
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q4
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in
Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS® active in all phases of real estate brokerage,
management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to
achieve business success.
All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to:
Marketing and Communications
Virginia Association of REALTORS®
10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059
(804) 264-5033 Marketing@VARealtor.com
www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales
Economic Regions
Central Valley:
Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland,
Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City
Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover,
Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan,
Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex
Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews,
Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City,
Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York
Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier,
Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page,
Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City
Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin,
Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City
Southside Virginia:
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City,
Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Southwest Virginia:
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc.
All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 16