1. business and industrial
2. energy
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WEEKLY
shipping.fearnleys.no
Published by Fearnresearch
VLCCs fixed all areas last week:
VLCCs avail. in MEG next 30 days:
TANKERS
CHARTERING
Crude
The general activity in the Vlcc market remains rather slow. The Meg
volumes for April still remain very sluggish and the first decade may end as
low as we saw in March. The previous month however had a rather active
third decade which is keeping some hope up among owners for a repeat. In
the meantime rates remain under pressure whilst owners doing their best to
hold on the conquered ground. Charterers remain patient while they steadily
play their cards close to their chests. Tonnage is also building up, despite
delays in the east which is weighing on the sentiment both in the Meg and also
in West Africa. Activity expected to increase whilst the tug-of-war
continues. In the Atlantic rates have softened as well, even in the Caribbean
where ships open in the area are looking towards West Africa for
employment. We have experienced a strange week for the Suezmaxes,
particularly from West Africa. The week started on a slow note and rates
quickly dropped down to ws82,5 basis td20. This brought several charterers
to the market at the same time and with a somewhat tight tonnage list for
laycan upto 10 April, rates quickly rebounded to w90 on td20. We expect the
activity to slow down and with a more balanced position list for 2nd decade
load dates in West Africa we expect rates to stabilize. In Med/Bsea area
rates are still holding due to an active and firm Aframax market and in
addition a steady and big demand for vessels going for eastern destinations
both with fuel oil and crude. Aframaxes trading in the Nsea/Baltic
experienced another week with rates moving sideways. Ice restrictions for
all load ports in the Baltic were officially lifted on Monday 23rd March.
Charterers immediate reactions they now would have a greater choice of
tonnage to pick from, but despite this, rates have been maintained. Reason is
because there is less available tonnage in the north, and a undersupply
scenario seems to have emerged which might create an upward market
potential. The Med and Bsea Afras have seen the effect of ships ballasting
out of the area, leaving fewer ships that have returned back into fixing
position. As cargo activity increased towards end month owners managed to
push rates towards ws150 level. This was due to a shortage of tonnage for
certain dates in play and replacements that have occurred due to bad
weather and closed ports. At time of writing the tonnage list is still tight but
going forward we expect the current pressure to ease and rates to come off.
Product
Not too many changes in the CPP spot market this week as both the West
and East remains steady at firm levels. EAST OF SUEZ It has been a good
few weeks now with steady rates and activity in the LR2 market where
ws105 for MEG/JPN has been the conference rate. Now at least two ships
have been put on subs at ws103.5, and even though this is only a slight
reduction to the aforementioned conference it may also be a sign that the
market is under pressure. For the LR1´s, the going rate the last weeks have
remained solid this week as well and as opposed to the LR1 market there
has not been any signs so far of any softening tendencies. Overall the MR
market has kept its momentum, and rates remain firm. WEST OF SUEZ
The LR2 market in the West have not seen too many changes over the past
week, but now available tonnage is getting scarce and rates could see an
increase over the next few days as at least one ship within the fixing
window are considering the Dirty market instead possibly leaving the list
even tighter. For the LR1´s we have not registered much change since last
week, and rates are still firm. MR´s trading Cont/TA has had a week of ups
and downs, but now the momentum seems to be in the owners favor and
rates are heading up once more. The USG market has improved since last
week, and on the this side of the weekend rates have jumped some 10
points on the back of increased activity. For the Handies the Baltic market has
been stable, but is now looking softer. In the Mediterranean the market has
lost out some 20 points week-on-week.
ACTIVITY LEVEL
VLCC
Slow
Suezmax
Stable
Aframax
Firm
P. E. of Suez
Stable
P. W. of Suez
Mixed
RATES
DIRTY (Spot WS)
MEG / West
MEG / Japan
MEG / Singapore
WAF / USG
WAF / USAC
Sidi Kerir / W Me
N. Afr / Euromed
UK / Cont
Caribs / USG
This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015
VLCC
VLCC
VLCC
260,000
130,000
135,000
80,000
80,000
70,000
26.0
50.0
51
62.5
90.0
97.5
150.0
95.0
175.0
27.0
49.0
50
62.5
92.5
100.0
125.0
95.0
147.5
26.0
49.0
50
62.5
75.0
77.5
85.0
92.5
100.0
39.0
70.0
70
80.0
100.0
125.0
200.0
127.0
190.0
CLEAN (Spot WS)
MEG / Japan
MEG / Japan
MEG / Japan
Singapore / Japan
Baltic T/A
UKC-Med / States
USG / UKC-Med
75,000
55,000
30,000
30,000
60,000
37,000
38,000
102.5
130.0
120.0
150.0
142.5
155.0
135.0
105.0
130.0
120.0
150.0
145.0
185.0
130.0
85.0
100.0
107.5
115.0
110.0
100.0
50.0
110.0
130.0
122.5
150.0
145.0
185.0
160.0
43,000.0
33,000.0
23,000.0
23,750.0
20,000.0
15,500.0
43,000.0
33,000.0
23,000.0
23,750.0
19,250.0
15,500.0
38,000.0
28,000.0
22,250.0
22,000.0
17,750.0
14,000.0
45,000.0
33,000.0
23,000.0
23,750.0
20,000.0
15,500.0
1 YEAR T/C (usd/day) (theoretical)
VLCC
(modern)
Suezmax
(modern)
Aframax
(modern)
LR2
105,000
LR1
80,000
MR
47,000
25. March 2015
47
109
previous week:
last week:
44
101
SALE AND PURCHASE
Vessel
Takasuzu
Seaglory
Eships Sama
Trans Trader
Size
279 989
47 149
45 663
8 801
Built Buyer
2000 New Shipping
2003 Middle Eastern
2005 Winson Oil
2005 European
Price Comm.
26,50 SS/DD due
15,00
15,00
10,30 StSt
DRY BULK
CHARTERING
Handy
There has been more activity in both hemispheres this week. Especially the
USG market has picked up with more cargoes for prompter dates entering
the market. Some chrts has been covering their forward cgos on COA´s and
it seems we have been at the bottom for now. The grain season is picking
up in South America and giving suport to the increasing freight level. TA´s
are now being fixed at ard Usd 7200 while trips from USG to Continent are
being fixed in excess of Usd 10k while same trip to East Med are being
fixed at ard Usd 12k. In the Pacific we also see increased activity with coal
cgos direction India is paying up and the NoPac rv cgos are being fixed in
the 6/7k area. Supported by the improved spot market the period market is
gaining strength. Smax´s with good specs are being fixed in the high 8´s for
short period whereas 1 year periods are being covered in the mid/upper 8´s
as well.
Panamax
This week started with some more activity in Atlantic, few more coal and
iron ore orders gave small hope to a generally flat and uninspired panamax
market. However the rates remained flat from last week. Rates still
hoovering around Usd 4000 for atlantic biz. With the upcoming European
easter we expect Atlantic to slow down. We see the grain from ECSA
paying still in the usd 12000 + 200k bb. The period activity remain slow
and only a few medium periods 4 to 7 months delivery feast reported in the
usd 7700-7750 range. Aussie/China rounds beeing fixed in the usd 4500
-5000 range, while the grains from Aussie to China paying usd 6500. China
iron ore import for the first 2 months declined by 1.2 % compared with
2014. Continius oversupply of prompt tonnage keeping the rates under
pressure. As for now only increased grain volumes can boost the rates on
short term.
Capesize
Still no sign of light for the big ships, and as prompt units pile up in Far
Eastern hubs it is getting hard to distinguish between temporary idling and
"warm" layup. Although official average daily earnings stand at an already
poor usd 4300 for 180000-tonners, actual figures for the trading capesize
fleet are substantially lower when waiting time and unemployment are
factored in. Coal trading is moderate but not in complete limbo, iron ore
flows are below industry capacity but in line with predictions - the problem
is and remains a grotesque oversupply of tonnage. Period activity is low and
almost without exemption with an index-linked component to allow for
potential foward upside, recently exemplified by 180000 dwt/built 2009 done
for 12-15 months at BCI AVE4TC +5%.
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Capesize
Moderate
Panamax
Slower
RATES
CAPESIZE (usd/day, usd/tonne)
TCT Cont/Far East (172´ dwt)
Tubarao / R.dam (Iron ore)
Richards Bay/R.dam
Handysize
Stronger
This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015
10,000.00 11,375.00 10,000.00 18,700.00
4.40
4.20
4.00 16,000.00
4.00
3.80
3.00
5.00
PANAMAX (usd/day, usd/tonne)
Transatlantic RV
TCT Cont / F. East
TCT F. East / Cont
TCT F. East RV
Murmansk b.13-ARA 15/25,000 sc
Murmansk b.13-L.pool 15/25,000 sc
4,100.00
9,850.00
380.00
5,000.00
4.70
5.25
4,200.00
9,750.00
450.00
5,400.00
4.60
5.15
3,000.00 6,900.00
8,000.00 12,400.00
100.00
575.00
2,700.00 6,000.00
4.40
5.45
4.95
6.00
HANDYSIZE (usd/day)
Atlantic RV
Pacific RV
TCT Cont / F. East
7,200.00
6,200.00
9,400.00
6,990.00
5,700.00
9,600.00
8,530.00
9,000.00
11,100.00
1 YEAR T/C (usd/day)
Capesize
Capesize
Panamax
Handysize
Baltic Dry Index (BDI):
180,000 dwt
170,000 dwt
75,000 dwt
53,000 dwt
9,000.00 9,000.00 9,000.00 13,000.00
8,000.00 8,000.00 8,000.00 12,000.00
7,250.00 7,250.00 7,000.00 7,500.00
8,600.00 8,600.00
9,000.00
This Week: 598
Last week: 571
Fearnleys Weekly Report
25. March 2015
Published by Fearnresearch
SALE AND PURCHASE
Vessel
Abyo Four
C.S. Rainbow
Ramada Queen
Africa Sun
Hellenic Horizon
Bay Ranger
AEC Faith
Ziemia Lodzka
Size
172 639
55 725
46 412
45 208
44 809
43 125
37 700
26 264
NEWBUILDING
Built Buyer
1999 Kardeniz
2006 Greek
2005 New Trade
1994 Greek
1995 Greek
1995 Undisclosed
2015 Greek
1992 Undisclosed
Price
11,00
11,50
8,60
3,80
3,70
4,60
21,00
1,90
Comm.
For conversion
Bank deal
SS/DD passed
CHARTERING
It has been an uneventful week in the VLGC market, the Indian charterers
were the most visible when they sub-fixed a handful vessels to load towards
the end of April. Spot rates have come under modest pressure in an
environment where rather few available vessels seemingly outnumber
prospective cargoes over the next few weeks. There were a few fixtures
already signalling a benchmark level in the mid/low USD 90´s for April, but
for now most players believe the setback is going to be modest and
temporary. The most recent spot fixtures return some USD 80,000 per day
which still a solid number taking the minimal idle time lately into account.
A brief vessel count for April tells us we have a "normal" month ahead as
far as VLGC availability is concerned, therefore we should not see too big
changes in rates ahead provided crude prices remain reasonably stable.
ACTIVITY LEVEL
15-23,000 cbm
Firm
RATES
SPOT MARKET (usd/month)*
82.000 cbm / FR
57.000 cbm / FR
35.600 cbm / FR
20.000 cbm / SR
10.000 cbm ETH
6.500 cbm / SR
COASTER Europe
COASTER Asia
* Excl. waiting time, if any
LPG/FOB prices (usd/tonne)
FOB North Sea / ANSI
Saudi Arabia / CP
MT Belvieu (US Gulf)
Sonatrach : Bethioua
2,760,000 1,430,000 2,760,000
1,750,000 1,500,000 1,750,000
1,050,000 1,000,000 1,050,000
1,000,000
950,000 1,025,000
520,000
500,000
560,000
440,000
435,000
440,000
170,000
135,000
170,000
140,000
135,000
140,000
Propane
407.00
500.00
269.62
405.00
LNG
SPOT MARKET (usd/day)
East of Suez 155-165´cbm
West of Suez 155-165´cbm
1 yr TC 155-165´cbm
Butane
438.50
460.00
276.33
470.00
ISO
284.94
This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015
35,000
35,000
43,000
40,000
40,000
46,000
35,000
35,000
37,400
ACTIVITY LEVEL
65,000
70,000
61,500
Dry Bulkers
Slow
Average Far Eastern Prices
PRICES (mill usd)
VLCC
300´dwt
Suezmax
150´dwt
Aframax
110´dwt
Product
50´dwt
Capesize
180´dwt
Panamax
82´dwt
Handymax
64´dwt
LNGC
160´cbm DFDE
LNGC
170´cbm DFDE
Others
Slow
This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015
97.0
97.0
97.0
97.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.0
53.0
53.0
53.0
53.5
36.0
36.0
36.0
37.0
52.0
52.0
52.0
54.0
28.0
28.0
28.0
29.5
26.0
26.0
26.0
27.5
198.0
198.0
198.0
200.0
208.0
208.0
208.0
PC
MPP
H-L
No
Size Yard
2 320000 dwt Hyundai
1
2
Buyer
Del Price Comm.
Pantheon Tankers 2016/
17
50088 dwt Hyundai Vinashin Top Ships
2017
28000 dwt Shanghai SY
Cosco
2018
40
MARKET BRIEF
Rate of exchange
JPY/USD
KRW/USD
NOK/USD
USD/EUR
Interest rate
LIBOR USD 6 mnths
NIBOR NOK 6 mnths
Commodity prices
Brent spot (USD)
Bunker prices
Singapore
380 CST
180 CST
Gasoil
Rotterdam
380 LSFO
380 HSFO
180 CST
Diesel
This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015
119.35
121.17
116.30
121.45
1,099.40 1,129.90 1,082.19 1,129.90
7.83
8.34
7.52
8.34
1.10
1.06
1.06
1.18
0.40
1.50
0.41
1.21
0.36
1.16
0.41
1.50
55.61
53.10
47.16
61.15
310.00
324.00
554.00
0.00
292.00
333.00
516.00
312.00
320.00
548.00
0.00
277.00
318.00
495.00
269.00
274.00
485.00
0.00
232.00
279.00
447.00
380.00
391.00
608.00
0.00
325.00
367.00
570.00
SALE AND PURCHASE
Vessel
Cbm Type
No reportable sales this week
Built
Buyers
Price Misc
DEMOLITION
Vessels sold for demolition
VLCC/VLOO
Year to date 2015:
Year to date 2014:
4
2014 total:
9
SUEZMAX
CAPE/OBO
0
1
4
9
SOLD FOR DEMOLITION
Vessel name
Size
Ldt Built Buyer
MV Aquahope
167 105 22 093 1997 Pakistani
MV Anangel Solidarity 161 643 19 436 1993 Bangladeshi
MV Silver Merchant
151 066 17 970 1995 Bangladeshi
CONT Livorno Express 43 714 13 186 1991 Turkish
MT Zaizoom
4 350 2 171 1979 Pakistani
MT Green Line
3 389 1 050 1985 Pakistani
MT Byar Ali
1 165
548 1981 Pakistani
FEARNLEYS AS
P.O BOX 1158 SENTRUM
0107 OSLO
PHONE: + 47 22 93 60 00
fearnleys.no
208.0
NEWBUILDING CONTRACTS
Type
MT
82,000 cbm
Slow
This Week Last Week Low 2015 High 2015
2,425,000
1,750,000
1,050,000
1,025,000
500,000
440,000
170,000
140,000
Not much excitement out there. In spite of the current strong tanker market,
only one VLCC order surfaced over the last week. Not surprisingly the
bulker side remained quiet. Most yards offer slots for first half 2017. With
prices under pressure, timing could be right for industrial shipping
companies with specialized tonnage to consider renewals.
Tankers
Slow
As-is
Casablanca
GAS
COASTER
Moderate
GENERAL COMMENT
Price
400
380
413
250
325
325
310
FEARNRESEARCH
fearnresearch@fearnleys.no
Telefax: 22 93 61 10
FEARNBULK
fearnbulk@fearnleys.no
Telefax: 22 93 62 50
FEARNSALE
fearnsale@fearnleys.no
Telefax: 22 93 61 50
FEARNTANK
fearntank@fearnleys.no
Telefax: 22 93 62 48
FEARNGAS
fearngas@fearnleys.no
Telefax: 22 93 61 30
ADMINISTRATION
Telefax: 22 93 61 20