Tata Motors
12 June 2015
Update | Sector: Automobiles
Tata Motors
BSE Sensex
26,425
S&P CNX
7,983
CMP: INR422
TP: INR626 (+48%)
Buy
JLR May-15 wholesale vol. flat YoY (below estimate)
Stock Info
Bloomberg
TTMT IN
Equity Shares (m)
3,395.9
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,432/22.3
Land Rover volumes de-grew ~2%, while Jaguar’s volumes grew ~7%
606 / 418
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
-16/-12/-9
Avg Val(INRm)/Vol‘000
2854/5654
Free float (%)
65.7
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E March
2015 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
2,628 3,112 3,678
EBITDA
421
514
596
NP
140
205
245
Adj. EPS (INR)
43.6
60.5
72.3
-1.1
38.6
19.5
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
174.8 245.8 316.0
RoE (%)
23.1
29.4
25.7
RoCE (%)
24.2
25.6
24.7
0.0
4.0
5.0
P/E (x)
9.7
7.0
5.8
P/BV (x)
2.4
1.7
1.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
3.7
2.9
2.2
Div. Yield (%)
0.0
0.5
0.7
Payout (%)
Valuations
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on
Mar-15 Dec-14 Mar-14
Promoter
34.3
34.3
34.3
DII
11.0
11.0
9.4
FII
47.5
47.4
48.8
Others
7.2
7.3
7.5
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Tata Motors
Sensex - Rebased
600
550
500
JLR May-15 wholesale volumes were flat YoY (-4% MoM) and stood at
38,879 units (v/s est. of 45,533 units), impacted by slower ramp-up at Chery
JV in China. We estimate ~19% volume growth in FY16, implying a residual
monthly rate of 47,473 units or 22.6% growth for FY16.
Land Rover de-grew by ~2% YoY to 31,532 units (v/s est. of 36,973 units),
while Jaguar grew by ~7% YoY to 7,347 units (est. of 8,560 units).
Recently launched Discovery Sport’s order book stands at over 50,000 units.
Jaguar XE has an order book of 25,000 units—with deliveries starting this
month in the UK, to be followed by Europe and then the Overseas markets.
In terms of regional retail sales performance, China volumes declined 32%
YoY (due to slower ramp-up of locally made Evoque), US volumes grew 13%
YoY, UK Volumes were up 16.5% YoY and Europe volumes grew 20.6% YoY.
Jaguar’s retail volumes continued to decline (~13% YoY), led by de-growth
across models.
Land Rover’s retail volumes were flat YoY, with Discovery growing 8.3% YoY,
Range Rover (incl. new) 7.4% YoY and Discovery Sport ~13% YoY. Range
Rover Evoque de-grew by 17.7% YoY (the China impact).
Commenting on the retail performance, Andy Goss—JLR Group Sales
Operations Director—said: “I am personally delighted to see that three of
our key regions, the UK, Europe and North America have delivered their best
ever May sales this month. Following our fifth successive year of growth in
sales, we anticipate retailing over half a million vehicles this year for the
first time in the company's history. As expected, initially there will be some
short term change in our sales as we gear up for our new product launches,
during what will be a landmark year for Jaguar Land Rover.”
With most transitory events behind, JLR volumes should start normalizing
with XE launch and ramp-up in China JV production. However, we believe
that phase-out of Jaguar XF for September 2015 launch of the all-new XF
(on XE platform) would partly dilute the benefit of the above-mentioned
ramp-up.
The stock trades at 7x/5.8x FY16/FY17 consolidated EPS. Maintain Buy with
a TP of INR626 (FY17 SOTP-based) for ordinary shares and INR437 for DVR
(~30% discount to TP for ordinary shares).
450
Jun-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
400
Jinesh Gandhi (Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Jay Shah (Jay.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3078 4701
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Tata Motors
Exhibit 1: TATA MOTORS : JLR (Wholesale)
YoY
Company
Sales
JLR
Jaguar
Land
rover
MoM
Apr-15
Apr-14
38,879
7,347
38,998
6,848
YoY
(%)
chg
-0.3
7.3
31,532
32,150
-1.9
YTD
MoM
(%)
Mar-15 (%) FY16-YTD FY15-YTD
chg
chg
40,665 -4.4 79,544
79,135
0.5
6,768
8.6
14,115
12,552
12.5
33,897
-7.0
65,429
66,583
-1.7
FY16
estimate
Residual Residual
Growth Monthly
Gr. (%)
(%)
Run rate
FY16 YTD
Monthly
Run rate
554,277
117,496
18.8
53.6
22.6
61.7
47,473
10,338
39,772
7,058
436,781
12.0
14.8
37,135
32,715
Exhibit 2: TATA MOTORS : JLR (Retails)
YoY
MoM
YTD
May-15
May-14
YoY (%) chg
Apr-15
MoM (%)
chg
JLR
Jaguar
Land rover
38,017
5,605
32,412
38,831
6,450
32,381
-2.1
-13.1
0.1
37,286
5,348
31,938
2.0
4.8
1.5
75,303
10,953
64,350
76,002
11,961
64,041
-0.9
-8.4
0.5
Region-wise Retail Sales
Region
UK
US
Europe
China
RoW
Total JLR
May-15
7,418
7,335
9,306
7,389
6,569
38,017
May-14
6,366
6,490
7,718
10,880
7,377
38,831
YoY %
16.5
13.0
20.6
-32.1
-11.0
-2.1
Apr-15
7,254
6,938
8,665
8,289
6,140
37,286
MoM %
2.3
5.7
7.4
-10.9
7.0
2.0
FY16YTD
14,672
14,273
17,971
15,678
12,709
75,303
FY15YTD
12,431
12,567
15,187
21,358
14,459
76,002
YoY %
18.0
13.6
18.3
-26.6
-12.1
-0.9
Brand-wise Retail Sales
Brands
XF
XJ
XK
XE
Others (incl. F-type)
Total Jaguar
Defender
Discovery
Freelander/ Dis.Sport
Range Rover (incl. new)
RR Evoque
RR Sport (incl. new model)
Total Land Rover
May-15
2,893
1,032
50
624
1,006
5,605
1,729
3,577
5,689
4,972
9,130
7,315
32,412
May-14
3,466
1,429
306
YoY %
-16.5
-27.8
-83.7
Apr-15
3,141
1,111
61
MoM %
-7.9
-7.1
-18.0
-19.5
-13.1
39.4
8.3
12.9
7.4
-17.7
3.4
0.1
1,015
5,328
1,604
3,906
5,646
5,117
8,101
7,564
31,938
-0.9
5.2
7.8
-8.4
0.8
-2.8
12.7
-3.3
1.5
FY15YTD
6,501
2,883
595
1,982
11,961
2,545
6,624
9,946
8,975
21,666
14,285
64,041
YoY %
-7.2
-25.7
-81.3
1,249
6,450
1,240
3,302
5,037
4,628
11,099
7,075
32,381
FY16YTD
6,034
2,143
111
644
2,021
10,953
3,333
7,483
11,335
10,089
17,231
14,879
64,350
Company Sales
12 June 2015
FY16YTD
FY15YTD
(%) chg
2.0
-8.4
31.0
13.0
14.0
12.4
-20.5
4.2
0.5
2
Tata Motors
Financials and valuations
Income Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Total Income
Change (%)
Expenditure
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
EBIT
Product Dev. Exp.
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Effective Rate (%)
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2010
925,193
30.5
839,051
86,142
9.3
38,871
47,270
4,982
22,397
416
35,226
28.6
15,654
-162.5
2011
1,221,279
32.0
1,043,129
178,150
14.6
46,555
131,595
9,976
23,853
4,295
104,372
11.7
92,736
492.4
2012
1,656,545
35.6
1,419,540
237,005
14.3
56,254
180,751
13,892
29,822
6,618
135,339
-0.3
119,008
28.3
2013
1,888,176
14.0
1,622,487
265,689
14.1
75,693
189,996
20,216
35,533
8,115
136,335
27.7
99,560
-16.3
2014
2,328,337
23.3
1,954,308
374,029
16.1
110,782
263,248
25,652
47,338
8,286
188,690
25.3
141,986
42.6
2015
2,627,963
12.9
2,206,825
421,138
16.0
133,886
287,252
28,752
48,615
8,987
217,026
35.2
140,465
-1.1
2016E
3,112,361
18.4
2,597,867
514,493
16.5
170,039
344,455
31,350
32,005
8,437
279,686
26.4
205,338
46.2
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
5,706
76,359
82,065
351,924
6,377
185,338
191,715
303,622
6,348
320,638
326,985
471,490
6,381
369,992
376,373
557,223
6,438
649,597
656,035
549,545
6,438
556,181
562,619
692,115
6,792
827,882
834,674
689,031
6,792
1,066,337
1,073,129
685,947
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Goodwill
Investments
Curr.Assets
Inventory
Sundry Debtors
Cash & Bank Bal.
Loans & Advances
Current Liab. & Prov.
Sundry Creditors
Other Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
11,536
447,660
648,518
344,135
304,383
80,680
34,229
22,191
425,296
113,120
71,912
87,433
152,807
417,208
221,875
118,898
8,088
447,660
14,638
512,440
715,231
396,987
318,245
117,289
35,848
25,443
506,995
140,705
65,257
114,096
178,422
491,378
279,031
112,776
15,616
512,440
-23,743
777,803
897,791
495,125
402,667
159,458
40,937
89,177
711,679
182,160
82,368
182,381
249,952
626,116
366,863
130,835
85,564
777,803
-24,094
913,206
1,205,654
570,818
634,836
60,000
41,024
90,577
829,538
209,690
109,427
211,127
280,739
742,769
447,801
134,250
86,769
913,206
-7,748
1,202,038
1,585,353
681,599
903,754
70,000
49,788
106,867
1,046,103
272,709
105,742
297,118
273,241
974,474
573,157
199,707
71,629
1,202,038
-13,900
1,245,167
1,869,712
815,486
1,054,226
70,000
46,970
153,367
1,034,685
292,723
125,792
321,158
256,948
1,114,081
574,073
328,305
-79,396
1,245,167
-13,900
1,515,235
2,241,766
985,525
1,256,242
70,000
46,970
154,030
1,241,464
315,500
144,959
479,494
261,948
1,253,471
724,796
272,864
-12,007
1,515,235
-13,900
1,751,889
2,627,319
1,187,826
1,439,493
70,000
46,970
154,767
1,521,843
372,815
171,293
669,723
266,948
1,481,185
856,467
322,435
40,659
1,751,889
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March
12 June 2015
2017E
3,677,772
18.2
3,082,059
595,713
16.2
202,302
393,411
34,579
27,365
10,406
331,873
25.9
245,387
19.5
(INR Million)
3
Tata Motors
Financials and valuations
Ratios (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
EPS Fully Diluted
Normalized EPS ^
EPS Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value (Rs/Share)
DPS
Payout (Incl. Div. Tax) %
Valuation (x)
Consolidated P/E
Normalized P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price to Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
5.5
4.9
-4.2
-162.5
19.1
28.8
1.2
63.4
29.1
28.8
16.5
492.4
43.7
60.1
4.0
15.8
37.5
37.0
20.9
28.3
55.2
103.0
4.0
12.4
31.2
30.9
11.3
-16.3
54.9
118.0
2.0
7.4
44.1
44.1
17.8
42.6
78.5
203.8
2.0
5.3
43.6
43.6
14.1
-1.1
85.2
174.8
0.0
0.0
60.5
60.5
25.0
38.6
110.5
245.8
2.0
4.0
72.3
72.3
35.2
19.5
131.8
316.0
3.0
5.0
86.7
-99.8
16.8
1.6
14.7
0.3
14.6
25.6
8.5
1.2
7.0
0.9
11.4
20.2
6.5
0.9
4.1
0.9
13.6
37.3
6.0
0.8
3.6
0.5
9.6
23.7
4.0
0.6
2.1
0.5
9.7
30.0
3.7
0.6
2.4
0.0
7.0
16.9
2.9
0.5
1.7
0.5
5.8
12.0
2.2
0.4
1.3
0.7
19.1
10.7
48.4
26.5
45.9
29.0
28.3
23.4
27.5
25.7
23.1
24.2
29.4
25.6
25.7
24.7
28
45
88
2.1
20
42
83
2.4
18
40
81
2.1
21
41
87
2.1
17
43
90
1.9
17
41
80
2.1
17
37
85
2.1
17
37
85
2.1
4.3
1.6
1.4
1.5
0.8
1.2
0.8
0.6
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Int/Div. Received
Depreciation
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
Other Items
CF from Op Activity
Extra-ordinary Items
CF after EO Items
(Inc)/Dec in FA+CWIP
(Pur)/Sale of Invest.
CF from Inv Activity
2010
25,711
2,786
38,826
-12,292
26,009
17,647
98,686
-2,631
96,055
-84,532
6,416
-78,116
2011
92,736
4,115
46,510
-13,912
-40,484
29,639
118,604
-7,773
110,830
-81,128
4,158
-76,970
2012
135,165
5,376
56,209
-17,679
-22,801
24,401
180,670
8,549
189,219
-137,829
-72,976
-210,804
2013
98,926
8,115
75,693
-38,062
27,540
547
172,760
-876
171,884
-208,404
-1,400
-209,804
2014
139,910
8,286
110,782
-31,301
101,131
-8,263
320,545
-2,777
317,768
-389,700
-16,290
-405,989
2015
139,863
8,987
133,886
-82,582
175,065
2,945
378,165
-930
377,235
-284,358
-46,501
-330,859
2016E
205,338
8,437
170,039
-73,915
90,947
1,096
401,943
0
401,943
-372,055
-663
-372,718
2017E
245,387
10,406
202,302
-85,940
137,564
1,283
511,001
0
511,001
-385,553
-737
-386,290
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividends Paid
CF from Fin Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Beginning Bal.
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
15,889
41,279
-28,553
-3,496
25,119
43,058
22,241
65,300
32,550
-11,677
-24,691
-10,195
-14,013
19,848
67,920
87,768
1,386
113,054
-33,737
-15,031
65,672
44,087
104,244
148,330
-42,124
85,733
-35,533
-7,414
662
-37,259
148,330
111,071
147,284
-7,678
-47,338
-7,532
84,735
-3,485
111,071
107,586
-233,278
142,570
-48,615
0
-139,323
-92,947
107,586
14,639
74,901
-3,084
-32,005
-8,184
31,628
60,853
14,639
75,492
5,344
-3,084
-27,365
-12,276
-37,381
87,330
75,492
162,822
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
12 June 2015
(INR Million)
4
Tata Motors
NOTES
12 June 2015
5
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Tata Motors
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