Canadian Independent Petroleum Marketers Association Supplying Canadian businesses & families with fuel from coast-to-coast-to-coast Newsletter April 2015 When CIPMA Speaks, Your Voice is Heard In this issue... Conference Summary Advocacy Updates Member Updates News Updates Upcoming Events Table of Contents Conference Summary ...........................................1 Advocacy Updates ................................................4 Member Updates ................................................5 Message from the President News Updates .....................................................6 Upcoming Event s ................................................9 It was a great pleasure to see so many CIPMA Members, Associate Members and friends earlier this month in Toronto at the 2015 Canadian Fuel Marketing Conference, presented by CIPMA. Our attendance was impressive at 200 registered delegates, setting an all-time record for the conference. Throughout the three days, we heard from a number of speakers, on topics ranging from cap-and-trade regimes, to loyalty programs for your businesses. We have confirmed that next year’s conference will take place in Montreal, a seemingly favourite city of our Members and delegates. You can expect to hear details about the conference in the fall, however, please do not hesitate to contact me directly with speaker or panel suggestions in the interim. As we move into warmer weather, the CIPMA team is busy finalizing an economic study with a well-known economist from the University of Waterloo, which examines the challenges faced by the sector in relation to fuel supply. We will also be engaging in a number of other projects that will continue to bring significant awareness to the sector. Our goal is to continue to elevate the brand of CIPMA to bring the necessary government and public attention to our sector and work to address a number of challenges our sector faces. As always, please don’t hesitate to bring forward issues that you feel are affecting your business, and we will see where these can be incorporated into our advocacy efforts. Sincerely, Tricia Anderson President and CEO CIPMA MISSION CIPMA’s mission is to ensure the sustainability and growth of a healthy and viable independent fuel marketing and distribution sector at both the wholesale and retail levels in Canada. Our specific goals include: Ensuring that independent fuel marketers thrive and have the opportunity to earn a fair and reasonable return that is proportionate to their business risk and capital investment, and ensuring that Canadian consumers and independent fuel marketers have access to a competitively priced and readily available supply of fuel products in all regions of the country. Conference Summary The 2015 Canadian Fuel Marketing Conference was a big success, with more than 200 delegates joining us in Toronto from across Canada. We are pleased to note that this year’s conference grew by 12% from last year in terms of attendance. We have no doubt that next year’s conference in Montreal will only surpass this record. Our sector is one that is constantly evolving, and needs to be adaptive and nimble to change. We need our finger on the pulse of regulatory advances and economic developments that affect how our sector does business today, and into the future. • Ken Green, Senior Director, Natural Resource Studies, Fraser Institute • Mathieu Lefebvre, Supply Manager, Fuel Procurement, CN Rail • Steve Allmen, Principal Consultant at Steve Allmen Consulting • John Wright, SVP and Managing Director for Ipsos Public Affairs • Bill Peters, Energy and Environment Journalist for Argus Media • James Spencer, Founder and CEO, Portland Fuel The CIPMA team puts great emphasis on bringing together speakers that would engage, inform and inspire. Our speakers covered various topics from their respective areas of expertise, as follows: Our esteemed guests speakers and workshop leaders this year included: The Future of Transportation Fuels (John Eichberger, Executive Director, The Fuels Institute and Vice-President Government Relations, NACS) • John Eichberger, Executive Director, The Fuels Institute and Vice-President Government Relations, NACS • Peter Tertzakian, Chief Energy Economist at ARC Financial • Glen Hodgson, SVP and Chief Economist at the Conference Board of Canada • Peter Boag, President, Canadian Fuels Association • David Bradley, President, Ontario Trucking Association and CEO, Canadian Trucking Alliance Eichberger engaged the audience with a thoughtprovoking talk on the future of the transportation industry and how it affects fuel demand. Eichberger’s talk highlighted some important trends for Members, including evidence that young people are increasingly embracing a new way of living and not driving as much as their parents did. He also reviewed various transportation fuels trends and forecasted that petroleum-based fuels will be a core element of the fuel mix for a number of decades. 1 | CIPMA Newsletter Canada’s Changing Energy Outlook (Peter Tertzakian, Chief Energy Economist at ARC Financial) Tertzakian led attendees through a historical review on changing technologies and advancements in the oil drilling and manufacturing industry that feeds our Members’ supply. He said that new global price wars will affect demand and fuel supply into the future. With industry cash flow down 72% this year, Tertzakian warned that destabilizing trends are going to continue to increase the volatility of the industry. sector. However, Boag said there is a global trend towards fewer, larger refineries. “Refinery location dynamics are now more complex; being close to market is no longer the dominant location criterion,” said Boag. Logistics of Petroleum Products in Canada – Challenges and Opportunities (Panel discussion with David Bradley, President, Ontario Trucking Association and CEO, Canadian Trucking Alliance; Ken Green, Senior Director, Natural Resource Studies, Fraser Institute; and Mathieu Lefebvre, Supply Manager, Fuel Procurement, CN Rail) Making Sense of Carbon Regimes in Today’s Economic Environment (Glen Hodgson, SVP and Chief Economist at the Conference Board of Canada) Hodgson led an engaging discussion on the economics of the world oil industry and how current developments can be expected to affect our Members into the future. He forecasted that world oil will end up at about $80/barrel, but warned that there will be a journey before the dust settles and the market stabilizes. Hodgson also introduced his work on Canada’s Ecofiscal Commission, reviewed actions taken by various governments worldwide on carbon pricing, and reflected on the recently announced carbon regimes in Canada. Peter Boag, President, Canadian Fuels Association Canada’s Refining Reality (Peter Boag, President, Canadian Fuels Association) Boag led an informative discussion on the importance and current state of our refining Green’s discussion focused on the economics of the industry and problems Canada is currently experiencing in getting crude exports to market. Bradley and Lefebvre informed attendees on the challenges facing the railway and trucking industries and how this affects the process of getting fuel products to the consumer – a supply issue affecting many of our Members. Bradley provided a stern warning about truck transportation: “It’s estimated that by 2020, the shortage of truck drivers in our industry will be at upwards of 33,000.” Loyalty: It’s Not Dead, It’s Just Changing (Steve Allmen, Principal Consultant at Steve Allmen Consulting) Allmen took attendees through a detailed discussion of the dynamics of loyalty programs and the advantages they pose for fuel marketers with retail operations. Allmen said that over 70% of people belong to five or more loyalty programs. 2 | CIPMA Newsletter credits and allowances, and the dynamics of cross-border agreements (ie. California-Quebec, Quebec-Ontario). Peters also suggested that the floor price of carbon credits will progressively rise over the years to ensure that emissions do decline, but projected that there would be an eventual price ceiling. Fuel Hedging 101 (James Spencer, Founder and CEO, Portland Fuel) Peter Tertzakian, Chief Energy Economist at ARC Financial “Loyalty programs are about the gathered data, but they are also heavily dependent on proper execution and communication with consumers,” explains Allmen. No matter the program, he said that providing truly good value to consumers has proven the most important factor in programs’ success. Demand Shift: Leading Canadian Business in the 21st Century (John Wright, SVP and Managing Director for Ipsos Public Affairs) Wright engaged the audience with his keynote, discussing the impact of the world’s changing population on fuel demand into the future. Wright said that 1993-94 saw the beginning of changes towards the society of today – changes in thought processes around societal security and challenging the status quo. He said that Canada is an interesting case, as it is one of the countries in the world with the most growth, helped along heavily through new immigration. He said that every area of Canada is facing a different demographic trend into the future, and planning for this will be an important factor for the success of the independent fuel marketing sector, especially those operating retail stores. Spencer led an engaging workshop on fuel hedging and fuel industry mechanics. Hedging, a financial instrument originally invented for the farming community, allows you to fix the published index prices for oil / refined grades, from one week to 12 months out, Spencer explained. He outlined that this strategy provides several benefits, including more financial certainty, especially important with oil and gas prices becoming more and more unpredictable, and it allows one to treat variable fuel costs like normal fixed overheads. For those who attended the conference and would like to see the full presentations, please complete and return the feedback survey that was circulated to Rita Molinari, rmolinari@cipma.org and we will be happy to send you a link to the full package. We look forward to seeing you all at next year’s Canadian Fuel Marketing Conference, April 1113, 2016, in Montreal, Quebec. We will be sharing more details with you later this year. However, never hesitate to reach out to suggest topic ideas, or speakers. Until next time! The CIPMA team Carbon Pricing Mechanisms and Standards in the Fuel Sector (Bill Peters, Energy and Environment Journalist for Argus Media) Peters led an informative workshop around low carbon fuel standards and the differences between carbon tax regimes and cap-and-trade. He weaved through the differences between Gala Cocktail Event, co-sponsored by National Energy Equipment Inc., ZCL Composites Inc., and Franklin Fueling Systems 3 | CIPMA Newsletter THANK YOU TO OUR SPONSORS p r e m i u m c l a s s i c b a s i c s p o n s o r s s p o n s o r s s p o n s o r s e x h i b i t o r s o t h e r c o n t r i b u t o r s Advocacy Updates supply. It will also examine pricing differentials between comparable Canadian and U.S. markets, and the impact of lower prices in the U.S. on our sector, the Canadian consumer, and Canadian tax revenues. CIPMA works hard on behalf of its Membership to bring a voice to issues and challenges faced by our sector. Through our efforts, we help educate decision makers at all levels of government, and generate more awareness of our sector in an effort to drive change. Below is an overview of issues we have been working on recently: Cap-and-trade CIPMA has been vocal to governments and stakeholders on its position related to capand-trade. Specifically, we submitted a proposal to the Ontario Government outlining our recommendation for a carbon reduction strategy in the form of a carbon tax. Our proposal can be viewed on the Members Only section of the website. We are currently reviewing our position moving forward on the issue, as it relates to outreach with the Ontario Government and plan to be part of what we hope will be a robust consultation process as the plan is further fleshed out. CIPMA President and CEO, Tricia Anderson, and CIPMA Board of Directors Past Chair and President of MacEwen Petroleum, Allan MacEwen,were recently quoted in the Globe and Mail on the topic, in an article titled, ‘Ontario’s petroleum marketers prefer carbon tax to cap-and-trade.’ To read the article, click here. Economic Study As noted in the president’s message, CIPMA is finalizing an economic study with Professor Anindya Sen, Associate Chair of Graduate Studies from the University of Waterloo. Sen has published several peer reviewed studies, including work on behalf of the Ontario Convenience Stores Association: ‘The Beer Store, Monopoly Profits and the Potential for Government Revenue: An Economic Analysis.’ The study will provide a holistic view of the impact of industry rationalization on reliable fuel We are currently creating a strategy for distribution of the study on a national scale to raise awareness and influence decision makers and regulatory bodies regarding the challenges of the independent petroleum sector related to fuel supply and the broader impacts on Canadian consumers. Payment Costs CIPMA Members are hit hard by costs of processing credit card payments and we have long been advocating for government action to reduce interchange fees. CIPMA was a founding member of Small Business Matters, a coalition of industry associations representing small and medium-sized businesses working together for reduced payment costs and other common issues. As a result of combined efforts,Visa and MasterCard committed to reduce credit card fees to an average effective rate of 1.50% for the next five years. An overall reduction of 10% was promised – all merchants were to receive a reduction in credit card fees, with reductions to commence no later than April 2015. 4 | CIPMA Newsletter As a result of the voluntary proposals, the government advised that that they do not believe they need to regulate interchange fees set by the credit card networks–even though rates in Canada are among the highest in the world. There is considerable skepticism within the merchant community regarding this voluntary commitment. CIPMA would like to hear from you regarding what, if anything, you are hearing on the subject of credit card fees. A quick survey will be sent to our Members at the beginning of May. Provincial Renewable Fuel Mandates CIPMA is in contact with provincial governments regarding their current or potential renewable fuel mandates. We continue to advocate for streamlined regulations between the provinces to promote crossprovincial border transport of fuel, in addition to small importer flexibilities. Provincial and Territorial Monitoring CIPMA carefully monitors relevant regulatory bodies of every province and territory to identify issues of potential concern or interest to CIPMA Members. While we stay abreast of industry initiatives and regulatory changes, we do appreciate Members bringing forth issues to our attention. Member Updates Accesibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act The government enacted the Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act (AODA) in 2005, with the goal of making Ontario accessible by 2025. In addition to obligations as employers, Members with retail operations have an obligation to ensure they are offering suitable options for customers with disabilities. This is a good time to assess your operations, particularly retail fuelling sites where you are serving the broader public, to ensure that you do have flexibility and mechanisms to serve customers with disabilities. This is increasingly important as full-serve sites diminish in numbers and disabled customers migrate to self-serve facilities. Some factors to review include, for example, the positioning of the “Call For Assistance” button on the pump island and establishing and training staff on a protocol to help disabled customers fuel their cars. Proactively considering options to ensure accessibility of all customers will protect your business from any potential government action, which could lead to an increase in operating costs. For more information on the Act, click here. New Associate Member Chevron Canada Ltd. We are pleased to welcome Chevron Canada Ltd. as a CIPMA Associate Member effective April 2015. Chevron Canada Ltd. (Products Division) is the subsidiary responsible for managing the Burnaby Refinery as well as the Chevron retail and commercial fuelling operations in British Columbia and Alberta. Initially owned and operated by Standard Oil Company of British Columbia Limited starting in 1935, the refining and marketing business has been owned and operated by Chevron Canada Ltd. since 1976. For more information on Chevron Canada Ltd., click here. 5 | CIPMA Newsletter News Updates Please note that all orange text in the following sections is hyperlinked. If viewing electronically, you may click to read full articles. GLOBAL Brent crude at nearly five-month high; U.S. crude up for sixth week • Brent crude settled up 43 cents at $65.28 per barrel after hitting a high of $65.80. U.S. crude closed down 59 cents at $57.15 per barrel, retreating from its 2015 high this month of $58.41. World’s biggest oil trader sees $50 floor for crude prices • Vitol Group, the world’s biggest independent oil trader, said crude prices won’t drop below $50 a barrel for sustained periods because that’s the level some producers need in order to invest in new supply. Saudi Arabia leads OPEC oil boom as U.S. shale oil growth slows • Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest member, raised output 390,000 barrels a day, to 10.1 million a day in March, the highest since September 2013 and close to record levels, according to the International Energy Agency. U.S. EIA releases new Annual Energy Outlook with projections out to 2040 • The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) presents updated projections for U.S. energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource), reflecting updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. U.S. gives Shell go-ahead to drill for oil in Alaskan Arctic • Royal Dutch Shell has received the goahead from the U.S. government to restart a controversial oil exploration campaign in the Chukchi Sea within the Arctic Circle despite fears over the risk to the environment. NATIONAL Canadian regular gasoline price hits twomonth high • At April month-end, the Canadian regular gasoline price had increased by 1.7 cents to 111.4 cents, a two-month high, while the Canadian retail diesel price rose by 0.2 cents to 111.0 cents. For more information, click here. UNITED STATES At nearly $1B, cap-and-trade revenues last year blew past predictions • Revenues generated from California’s signature climate-change program reached approximately $969 million by the end of last year – considerably higher than original estimates. 6 | CIPMA Newsletter Ottawa unveils new rules on credit card fees, but more action urged • Finance Minister Joe Oliver announced an update to the Code of Conduct for the credit and debit card industry that expands the voluntary code to include mobile payments involving smart phones. The code also requires premium credit cards to be clearly branded and for consumers to be informed of the fees that cards impose on business owners. CIPMA will be providing comments on the changes to the Code of Conduct. • Despite these updates, the Small Business Matters Coalition, of which CIPMA is a founding Member, responded that the fees charged by Visa and MasterCard are still too high, which is the major challenge facing businesses that accept credit card payments. Ottawa says most provinces falling short on greenhouse gas cuts • The federal environment minister, Leona Aglukkaq, has sent a letter to the provinces outlining how most of them are falling short of their targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. British Columbia and Alberta are the furthest behind. Ontario and Saskatchewan follow, with Quebec rounding out the top five. Canadian LNG projects at risk, new report suggests • A report released by Moody’s Investors Services cited that the drop in oil prices was “causing LNG suppliers to curtail their budgets and will result in the cancellation of the vast majority of the almost 30 proposals in the U.S., 18 in Western Canada and four in Eastern Canada.” Canada aims to boost investment with 40year gas licenses • Canada will extend natural gas export licenses to 40 years. The extension of natural gas export licenses from 25 years comes amid a global race for liquefied natural gas projects. Canadian pipeline regulator planning deep budget cuts • The National Energy Board is making plans to cut its annual spending by 24% and workforce by 15% over the next two years as a pool of temporary funding runs dry, according to a new report. January Canadian crude oil exports up by 12%, new record high • The National Energy Board released its crude oil export data for January 2015, which showed that Canadian exports in January 2015 were 12% higher than in January 2014,despite the plunge in oil prices, rising 100,000 b/d to a new record high of 3.125 million b/d. WESTERN REGION Alberta budget raises taxes on fuel • Effective March 27, 2015, taxes on both gasoline and diesel increased by 4 cents per litre – from 9 cents to 13 cents for both fuels. Propane taxes also increased by 2.9 cents per litre, to 9.4 cents per litre. This is the first change to the fuel tax since 1991. Spring oilfield slump expected to last all summer long • With world oil prices stubbornly stuck at around $50 USD per barrel, Western Canada’s weather-related spring drilling slowdown could easily last until next fall or longer, experts say. Western Canadian crude leads North American rally • Canada has benefited the most from the crude oil rally of the past month, with Western Canadian Select the leader among eight major North American grades, with a 48% gain. 7 | CIPMA Newsletter ONTARIO / QUEBEC REGION Kathleen Wynne signs cap-and-trade deal with Quebec • Wynne’s announcement lacked details on the cost of introducing the system or how much greenhouse gas would be reduced, however early estimates show that Ontario’s cap-and-trade program could raise as much as $2 billion annually. To date there has been no disclosure regarding where and how these funds would be used. Wynne did acknowledge that motorists can expect to pay 2.5 to three cents per litre more at the pumps under the proposed plan. For more details, click here. Ontario’s petroleum marketers prefer carbon tax to cap-and-trade • CIPMA President, Tricia Anderson, and Allan MacEwen, CIPMA Board of Directors Past Chair, and President of MacEwen Petroleum, shared their disappointment with Ontario’s capand-trade decision with the Globe and Mail. To read the full article, click here. Ontario government called on to support 10-year private-public sector energy plan • Proponents of a proposed $10-billion bitumen upgrader refinery expect to know shortly whether the Ontario government will throw its support behind the Sarnia-Lambton project. Quebec reduces gas tax near Ontario, N.B. border • The Quebec government has reduced the gas tax by up to $0.08 at stations close to Ontario and New Brunswick in an effort to help businesses that have been struggling to compete with lower prices across the border. CN slows down oil trains through northern Ontario • CN put speed restrictions on trains carrying more than 20 cars of flammable liquids and increased track inspections. The change applies only to the tracks between Capreol and the Manitoba border and lasts for 60 days. Energy East plan for oil port in Quebec dropped: report • TransCanada Corp. has cancelled plans to build an oil port in Quebec as part of its Energy East project, after objections that the plans could affect a beluga habitat. The pipeline will now reportedly go directly to N.B., with the new completion date pushed back to 2020. For more information, click here. ATLANTIC REGION New Brunswick deficit budget hikes taxes on fuel • In the new budget, fuel taxes on gasoline will increase by 1.9 cents per litre and the cost of diesel will rise by 2.3 cents per litre, bringing the province in line with neighbouring Nova Scotia. New Brunswick bans fracking, plans ‘prudent’ impact study • Lawmakers in New Brunswick voted to prohibit fracking in the province and committing to study the controversial method of extracting oil and gas for one year before reconsidering the ban in 2016. Irving Oil receives approval to reopen storage terminal in Nova Scotia • Irving Oil has received approval to reopen its petroleum storage terminal in Nova Scotia. The facility was shut down over a decade ago, but it was speculated that the 2013 closing of Imperial Oil’s refinery in the same area spurred Irving to form new plans for its terminal. 8 | CIPMA Newsletter Upcoming Events Western Members Meeting Mark your calendars – the CIPMA Western Members Meeting will take place on Tuesday, June 23, 2015 in Vancouver, British Columbia at Sutton Place Hotel. CIPMA Golf Challenge The 2015 CIPMA Golf Challenge will be held at a new location this year. Please join us on Thursday, September 17, 2015 at RattleSnake Point Golf Club in Milton, Ontario. CIPMA AGM and Eastern Members Meeting CIPMA’s AGM and Eastern Members Meeting will take place on Tuesday, October 6, 2015 in Moncton, New Brunswick. CIPMA 2016 Canadian Fuel Marketing Conference The 2016 Canadian Fuel Marketing Conference will take place April 11-13, 2016, in Montreal, Quebec. More details to come. 9 | CIPMA Newsletter FUELLING CANADA’S FUTURE Supplying Canadian businesses & families with fuel from coast-to-coast-to-coast www.cipma.org
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