1. business and industrial
2. energy
3. coal

Monday 6 April 2015
COAL SECTOR/COMPANY UPDATE
BUY
Bukit Asam
Target Price, IDR
13,500
Upside
23.8%
PTBA IJ/PTBA.JK
Last Price, IDR
No. of shares (mn)
10,900
2,304
Market Cap, IDR bn
25,115
1,814
2.1
(US$ mn)
3M T/O, US$mn
PTBA relative to JCI Index
PTBA (LHS)
Relative to JCI Index (RHS)
%
IDR
14,000
Despite unfavorable coal prices which will encourage coal miners to either maintain
or reduce coal production, we still believe that Bukit Asam (PTBA) will be able to
maintain double-digit coal production of 3-year CAGR of 11% in 2014 – 2017
supported by: a) the expansion of infrastructure projects in 2015 such as Tarahan
port (for which port capacity will be almost doubled to 25mn tons in 2Q15) and
greater railway capacity as well as: b) the commercial operation of new power plants.
As such, PTBA remains our Top Pick in the Indonesian coal sector. Maintain BUY with
a lower Target Price of Rp13,500 based on DCF valuation (WACC: 13.2% and long-term
growth of 3%) as we incorporate a lower coal price assumption. Our Target Price
implies 16.8x 2015F PE.
45
35
12,750
25
11,500
15
10,250
5
4 /2 /1 5
3 /5 /1 5
2 /5 /1 5
1 /8 /1 5
1 2 /1 1 /1 4
1 1 /1 3 /1 4
9 /1 8 /1 4
1 0 /1 6 /1 4
8 /2 1 /1 4
7 /2 4 /1 4
6 /2 6 /1 4
5 /1 /1 4
5 /2 9 /1 4
-5
4 /3 /1 4
9,000
Consensus
Our
Target price, IDR 13,500
EPS 2015F, IDR
803
PE 2015F, x
13.6
Cons
12,184
809
13.5
% Diff
10.8
-0.7
0.7
Market Recommendation
BUY
12
HOLD
SELL
Standing out from the crowd
9
4
Stefanus Darmagiri
(62-21) 2955 5777 ext.3530
stefanus.darmagiri@danareksa.com
Danareksa research reports are also
available at Reuters Multex and First Call
Direct and Bloomberg.
www.danareksa.com
2015: expect better coal production despite challenging outlook
Higher PTBA’s total coal production supported by rising coal production at its mining area at
Tanjung Enim, South Sumatra, where coal production improved by 11% yoy to 15.5mn tons. For
2015, the management still aims to increase production by 27% yoy to 20.9mn tons supported by:
a) the expansion of infrastructure projects, namely: further improvements in railway capacity by
28% yoy in 2015 following the arrival of five new locomotives and 600 new wagons in 2Q14 and
completion of double-track railway from Tanjung Enim to Prabumulih, and completion of the
Tarahan port expansion in 2Q15 as well as b) commercial operation of the2 x 110 MW Banjarsari
power plant. In our estimate, however, we conservatively assume coal production growth of only
9.1% yoy to 17.9 mn tons in 2015.
Maintaining its long-term stripping ratio target below 5.0x
We foresee a minimal impact from the recent slump in crude oil prices on PTBA’s production costs
since fuel costs (including the fuel cost component in mining services) only account for around
6 – 7% of total production costs. However, we still expect the company to maintain its long-term
stripping ratio target below 5.0x at the Tanjung Enim mining area. This, we believe, will avert further
declines in margins despite the bleak outlook for coal prices. In 2014, although the company
reported a slight increase in the stripping ratio to 4.6x from 4.4x in 2013, the stripping ratio was
nonetheless among the lowest compared to those of the peers under our coverage.
Lower dividend payout ratio of 35% on the 2014 net profits
The company will distribute dividends of Rp706bn from the 2014 net profits of Rp2.02tr. The
dividend payout ratio is about 35%, or lower than 2013’s payout ratio of about 55%. The lower
payout ratio is in-line with the government’s initiative to stimulate economic growth by reducing
the dividend payments from SOEs so that they can pursue more business opportunities. In
particular, this will provide PTBA with stronger financial foundations from which it can diversify
its business into power plants. Nevertheless, PTBA’s payout ratio still remains above the minimum
payout ratio of 30%. With dividends per share reaching Rp324.6, the dividend yield is around 3.0%
based on yesterday’s closing price.
Revenue, Rp bn
EBITDA, Rp bn
EBITDA Growth, %
Net profit, Rp bn
EPS, Rp
EPS growth, %
BVPS, Rp
DPS, Rp
Net Gearing, %
PER, x
PBV, x
EV/EBITDA, x
Yield, %
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
2017F
11,209
2,285
-38.1
1,826
840
-37.0
3,421
692
-43.9
13.0
3.2
9.6
6.4
13,078
2,597
13.7
2,016
927
10.4
3,934
436
-32.1
11.8
2.8
8.6
4.0
13,851
2,367
-8.9
1,746
803
-13.4
4,227
481
-17.3
13.6
2.6
9.9
4.4
15,278
2,797
18.2
1,939
892
11.1
4,678
417
-10.7
12.2
2.3
8.6
3.8
17,099
3,286
17.5
2,215
1,019
14.2
5,206
463
-7.1
10.7
2.1
7.4
4.2
See important disclosure on the back of this report
6 April 2015
Bukit Asam
Favorable exchange rate and higher coal production sustained net profits in 2014
Despite the depressed coal prices in 2014, Bukit Asam (PTBA) reported 10% yoy higher net
profits of Rp2.0tr in 2014. This was supported by: a) 15% yoy higher weighted ASP of
Rp723,635/ton despite a lower export price of about US$69/ton (-7% yoy) thanks to
weakening of the rupiah relative to the US dollar and b) a slight improvement in coal sales
volume at 18.0mn tons in 2014 from 17.8mn tons in 2013 with total coal production up by
8% yoy to 16.4mn tons. On a quarterly basis, although ASP went down by 3% qoq in 4Q14,
the revenues still rose 6% qoq thanks to 15% qoq higher sales volume to the domestic
market which resulted in 7% qoq higher sales volume overall. At the bottom line, net profits
rose slightly by 2% qoq to Rp434bn.
Stable gross margins, but lower operating margin
Despite better ASP, the company’s gross margin was stable at around 30.8% in 2014.
However, because the company’s operating expenses rose 31% yoy (due to other expenses
of Rp23bn in 2014 vs. income of Rp295bn in 2013), its operating margin declined to 17.7%
in 2014 from 19.2% in 2013. This was also behind the decline in the net margin to 15.4% in
2014 from 16.3% in 2013.
Exhibit 1. 2014 net profits – Saved by higher coal production and favorable exchange rate
Operational performance
Sales volume, mn tons
Domestic, mn tons
Export, mn tons
Production & purchases, mn tons
Own production, mn tons
Coal purchases, mn tons
ASP, Rp ‘000/ton
Strip ratio, bcm/ton
Financial performance
Net sales, IDR bn
COGS, IDR bn
Gross profit, IDR bn
Opex, IDR bn
Operating profit, IDR bn
Pretax profit
Net profit, IDR bn
Gross margin, %
Operating margin, %
Net margin, %
3Q14
4Q14
qoq, %
2013
2014
yoy, %
4.4
2.3
2.1
5.1
4.8
0.3
730.7
5.2
4.7
2.6
2.1
4.3
3.9
0.4
711.2
4.9
7
15
(1)
(16)
(18)
18
(3)
(5)
17.8
8.2
9.6
17.8
15.1
2.7
629.7
4.4
18.0
9.3
8.7
18.2
16.4
1.8
723.6
4.6
1
14
(10)
2
9
(34)
15
5
3,229
(2,282)
947
(489)
458
556
426
3,422
(2,467)
955
(496)
459
530
434
6
8
1
2
0
(5)
2
11,209
(7,746)
3,464
(1,311)
2,153
2,461
1,826
13,078
(9,056)
4,022
(1,712)
2,310
2,675
2,016
17
17
16
31
7
9
10
29.3
14.2
13.2
27.9
13.4
12.7
(1)
(1)
(1)
30.9
19.2
16.3
30.8
17.7
15.4
(0)
(2)
(1)
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
2015: expect better coal production despite challenging outlook
PTBA’s total coal production went up by 8% yoy to 16.4mn tons in 2014, supported by rising
coal production at its mining area at Tanjung Enim, South Sumatra, where coal production
improved by 11% yoy to 15.5mn tons. For 2015, the management still aims to increase
production by 27% yoy to 20.9mn tons underpinned by the expansion of infrastructure
projects, namely: a) further improvements in railway capacity by 28% yoy in 2015 and b)
completion of the Tarahan port expansion in 2Q15. In our estimate, however, we conservatively
assume coal production growth of only 9.1% yoy to 17.9 mn tons in 2015.
2
6 April 2015
Bukit Asam
Rising production will be supported by greater railway capacity and…
In the past, transporting coal from PTBA’s mining area to ports either in Kertapati, South
Sumatra or in Tarahan, Lampung, posed the main obstacle to company efforts to boost coal
production. This difficulty is reflected in PTBA’s anemic five-year CAGR coal production
growth of only 7% in 2008 – 2013 vs. the industry average figure of 12% CAGR growth.
Following the arrival of 5 new locomotives and 600 new wagons in 2Q14, coal transported
by railway showed a 16% yoy improvement to 14.8mn tons in 2014. Hence, with Kereta Api
Indonesia (KAI) currently operating about 106 locomotives and 2,944 wagons and, furthermore,
supported by completion of double-track railway from Tanjung Enim to Prabumulih, the
management indicates that railway capacity is expected to increase further by 28% yoy to
18.9mn tons in 2015.
…completion of the Tarahan port expansion and operation of power plants
With total investment of US$173mn, PTBA is expected to commence the operation of Tarahan
port expansion in 2Q15. With the operation of new jetty #2, which will be able to
accommodate giant vessels up to 210,000 DWT as well as additional stockpiles of 300,000
tons, port capacity will consequently be increased to 25mn tons from 13mn tons currently.
Moreover, higher coal production will be driven by the commercial operation of the 2x110
MW Banjarsari power plant in 2Q15, which will require additional coal from PTBA, as it will
consume about 1.4mn tons of coal annually sourced from PTBA.
Exhibit 3. Coal transported by railway
Exhibit 2. Coal production and sales volume
Production
mn tons
Sales
mn tons
20.0
30.0
18.0
25.0
20.0
16.0
15.0
14.0
10.0
12.0
5.0
10.0
0.0
8.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015F
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
More sales contribution from export market for 2015
In 2014, coal sales volume from domestic market jumped by 14% yoy, while coal sales for
export market declined by 10% yoy. Hence, total coal sales volume inched up by only 1%
yoy to 18.0mn tons. Strong domestic sales volume reflected to higher contribution to 51.8%
of total sales for domestic market, while remaining 48.2% for export market with Taiwan and
Malaysia was the largest buyers for PTBA’s total coal sales with 19.7% and 8.6% respectively.
In 2015, the management indicated to increase sales contribution from the export market
to around 54 – 57% as the company plans to increase the sales from high calorific value in
order to fulfill market, such as Taiwan, Japan, China, Malaysia, Vietnam and new potential
market, such as Korea.
3
6 April 2015
Bukit Asam
Expecting a lower coal selling price to PLN
At the beginning of the year, the company always adjusts its coal selling price to PLN, the
country’s state-owned electricity company. The adjustment is based on the average threemonth coal price in the fourth quarter and the agreed selling price is fixed for one year. As
the average coal price declined by about 15% yoy in 4Q14, albeit cushioned by the rupiah’s
6% yoy depreciation relative to the US Dollar, we expect about a 9 – 10% yoy lower coal
selling price to PLN in 2015. However, the management indicated flat growth or a slight
increase in coal selling price as the determination of price will also depends on the distance.
Minimal impact from lower crude oil prices
While most of mining companies production costs are linked to the energy prices, we
foresee a minimal impact from the recent slump in the crude oil prices for PTBA’s production
cost since fuel costs (including the fuel cost component in the mining services) only
accounted for about 6 – 7% of total production costs. Since the company relied on the usage
of railway for transporting the coal, hence, mining services and railway services are the
largest and second-largest contributors to total costs.
Exhibit 4. Coal sales breakdown by country (2014)
India
8.1%
China
4.3%
Srilanka
0.4%
Others
0.5%
Fuel and Oil
1%
Royalties
7%
Japan
4.3%
Rental of heavy
equipment
5%
Malaysia
8.6%
Vietnam
2.4%
Taiwan
19.7%
Source: Company
Exhibit 5. Cost breakdown (2014)
Domestic
51.8%
Salaries &
wages
11%
Coal trading
3%
Others
15%
Third party
mining
services
32%
Railway
expenses
26%
Source: Company
However, despite lower crude oil prices environment, the management indicated that
railway tariff is expected to increase of around 4% yoy for 2015. The railway tariff for Tanjung
Enim – Tarahan jumped by 5.5% for 2014 compared to the 2H13, while for Tanjung Enim
– Kertapati went up by 6.1%. We have undertaken a sensitivity analysis which shows that
a 10% decline in crude oil prices from our crude oil price assumption of US$80/bbl for 2015
– 2016 will improve PTBA’s earnings by 2.8 – 3.0% in 2015 and 2016.
Maintaining long-term stripping ratio of below 5x
The company experienced a higher stripping ratio to 4.6x in 2014 from 4.4x during the same
period last year. Hence, this resulted on higher total cash cost at Tanjung Enim System (Ex
royalty) by 14% yoy to Rp585,075/ton in 2014. However, the stripping ratio was still below
PTBA’s long-term stripping ratio target of below 5.0x and is the lowest compared to its peers
under our coverage. Hence, the company plans to maintain its stripping ratio of about 4.4
– 4.5x in 2015.
4
6 April 2015
Bukit Asam
Exhibit 7. Lowest stripping ratio vs. its peers
Exhibit 6. Quarterly stripping ratio and production
mn tons
Production (LHS)
Stripping Ratio (RHS)
5.0
5.5
4.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1Q09 4Q09 3Q10 2Q11 1Q12 4Q12 3Q13 2Q14
Source: Company
2011
x
x
2012
2013
2014
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
3.5
6.0
3.0
4.0
2.5
2.0
2.0
0.0
ADRO
HRUM
ITMG
PTBA
Source: Respective companies
Indication of higher royalties for IUP holders
The government has indicated it would hike the royalty rate for IUP holders from 3 – 7%
currently for open pit mining companies to a maximum 13.5% in order to increase the
country’s tax revenues. Since all of PTBA’s mining concessions are under IUP, higher royalty
rates would be unavoidable and they would negatively impact the company’s earnings. The
management indicated that an average increase in the royalty rate to 9% from currently
around 6% would increase the company’s total cash cost of production by US$2/ton from
the total cash costs (at Tanjung Enim System) of around US$53/ton, and as indicated in our
sensitivity analysis, this would lower our net profit estimates by 18.9% for 2015 and by 19.5%
for 2016.
Fine tuning our coal assumption estimates
We fine tune our coal assumption to US$65/ton from US$70/ton for 2015 to reflect the current
Newcastle coal prices, which have declined further to the current level of US$62/ton. We
believe that global oversupply in the coal market shall persist as a result of abundant coal
supply in China and greater supply from other producing countries, such as Indonesia and
Australia. Coupled with the Chinese government’s policy to increase imports tax as well as
its policy toward reducing the usage of coal in the energy mix going forward in an effort
to reduce pollution, China’s coal imports have consequently declined. However, we do
expect a slight improvement in coal prices to US$68/ton in 2016 and then to US$70/ton in
2017 supported by: a) the likelihood that the bleak coal outlook leads to a slowdown in
investment in the coal industry with several coal producers reducing their production rates
and b) the expectation that India imports more coal in order to meet higher electricity
demand.
5
6 April 2015
Bukit Asam
Exhibit 8. Coal prices
US$/ton
150
130
110
90
70
50
30
Jan-10 Jul-10
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14
Jul-14 Jan-15
Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas
Over the longer term, however, we are more sanguine on the coal outlook, especially since
coal prices will be supported bygrowing domestic demand. This will be driven by
government efforts to increase power plants’ capacity by 35 GW by 2019. Based on PLN’s
latest 2015 – 2024 roadmap, there will be additional power capacity of about 70 GW, of which
42GW of the additional capacity will be coal-fired power plants. As such, coal requirements
are expected to increase by 10-year CAGR of around 9%.
Exhibit 9. Additional capacity from new power plant (2015 – 2024, including IPP)
Coal
Geothermal
Gas
Combined Cycles
Hydropower
Others
GW
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
2021F
2022F
2023F
2024F
Source: PLN
6
6 April 2015
Bukit Asam
Exhibit 10. Coal requirement for power plant (2015 – 2024)
mn tons
180
148
160
157
168
171
2023F
2024F
133
140
119
120
98
100
80
106
86
74
60
40
20
0
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
2021F
2022F
Source: PLN
Maintain BUY recommendation
We maintain Neutral recommendation on the Indonesian coal sector given that global coal
oversupply to persist while China’s coal imports is expected to slow down due to tightening
policy in importing coal in that country. However, we continue to like Bukit Asam (PTBA) with
the expectation that the company to post double digit coal production growth going
forward as well as commercial operational of Banjarsari power plant with capacity of 2 x 110
MW, which will diversify into power business. Valuation wise, the stock is currently trading
at -1SD deviation to its five-year average PE. Hence, we maintain BUY recommendation with
lower target price of Rp13,500 (based on DCF valuation with WACC of 13.2% and long-term
growth of 3%) to reflect new coal price assumption. Our Target Price implies 16.8x 2015F PE.
Exhibit 11.PE Bands – Trading at -1SD deviation
x
25
2sd
20
1sd
mean
15
-1sd
-2sd
10
5
Jan 10
Sep 10
Mei 11
Jan 12
Sep 12
Mei 13
Jan 14
Sep 14
Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Sekuritas
7
6 April 2015
Bukit Asam
Exhibit 12.Changes in our forecast
Coal sales volume, mn tons
Coal production volume, mn tons
Coal Price, USD/ton
Blended Coal ASP, IDR/ton
USD/IDR Assumption
Revenue (IDR bn)
EBITDA (IDR bn)
Net Profit (IDR bn)
2015F
New
2016F
Previous
2015F
2016F
Change (%)
2015F
2016F
19.9
16.9
65
694,209
12,500
21.5
18.5
68
708,185
12,000
20.4
17.4
70
691,676
11,752
23.0
20.0
73
679,258
11,000
(2.4)
(2.8)
(7.1)
0.4
6.4
(6.4)
(7.4)
(6.8)
4.3
9.1
13,851
2,367
1,746
15,278
2,797
1,939
14,138
2,839
2,031
15,659
3,161
2,170
(2.0)
(16.6)
(14.0)
(2.4)
(11.5)
(10.6)
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
8
6 April 2015
Bukit Asam
Exhibit 13. Profit and Loss (IDR bn)
Turnover
COGS
Gross profit
Operating expenses
Operating profit
Other income/expenses
Net interest
Pre-tax profit
Taxes
Minority interest
Net profit
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
2017F
11,209
(7,746)
3,464
(1,311)
2,153
75
558
2,785
(607)
(28)
1,826
13,078
(9,056)
4,022
(1,712)
2,310
146
453
2,908
(656)
(3)
2,016
13,851
(9,996)
3,855
(1,726)
2,129
146
318
2,593
(594)
(35)
1,746
15,278
(10,949)
4,330
(1,865)
2,464
146
126
2,736
(659)
(38)
1,939
17,099
(12,150)
4,949
(2,086)
2,863
146
29
3,038
(753)
(43)
2,215
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
2017F
3,344
1,428
902
806
6,480
2,803
2,394
11,677
4,039
1,439
1,033
905
7,417
3,988
3,408
14,812
2,587
1,764
1,164
814
6,330
5,663
3,503
15,496
2,092
1,946
1,275
733
6,046
7,168
3,604
16,819
1,808
2,178
1,415
733
6,133
8,507
3,711
18,352
472
78
1,711
2,261
0
1,865
1,865
546
1,294
1,735
3,574
962
1,605
2,567
609
1,000
1,817
3,426
962
1,766
2,728
667
1,000
1,904
3,571
962
1,926
2,888
740
1,000
1,995
3,735
962
2,103
3,064
114
1,152
30
8,094
7,437
11,677
117
1,152
30
9,205
8,554
14,812
152
1,152
30
9,842
9,191
15,496
190
1,152
30
10,821
10,170
16,819
233
1,152
30
11,970
11,318
18,352
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 14. Balance sheet (IDR bn)
Cash
Account Receivables
Inventories
Other current assets
Total current assets
Fixed assets
Other noncurrent assets
Total assets
Account payable
Short term debt
Other current liabilities
Total current liabilities
Long term debt
Other noncurrent liabilities
Total noncurrent liabilities
Minority interest
Share capital
Excess paid in
Retained earnings & others
Total equity
Total equity & liabilities
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
9
6 April 2015
Bukit Asam
Exhibit 15. Cash flow (IDR bn)
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
2017F
1,826
132
156
(62)
2,051
2,016
287
1,072
(1,398)
1,976
1,746
237
(513)
(115)
1,355
1,939
332
(67)
(120)
2,084
2,215
423
(207)
(126)
2,305
Capex
Net acquisitions
Others
Investing cash flow
(1,242)
48
(130)
(1,324)
(1,620)
(130)
(285)
(2,035)
(1,894)
0
0
(1,894)
(1,818)
0
0
(1,818)
(1,742)
0
0
(1,742)
Dividends
Net change in debt
Others
Financing cash flow
(1,595)
0
(1,708)
(3,304)
(1,004)
1,749
(8)
737
(1,109)
0
195
(914)
(960)
0
199
(761)
(1,067)
0
219
(847)
Net change in cash
Net cash (debt) at beg.
Net cash (debt) at end.
(2,576)
5,917
3,344
678
3,344
4,039
(1,452)
4,039
2,587
(495)
2,587
2,092
(284)
2,092
1,808
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
2017F
30.9
19.2
20.4
16.3
15.0
23.0
-43.9
30.8
17.7
19.9
15.4
15.2
25.2
-32.1
27.8
15.4
17.1
12.6
11.5
19.7
-17.3
28.3
16.1
18.3
12.7
12.0
20.0
-10.7
28.9
16.7
19.2
13.0
12.6
20.6
-7.1
Net income
Depreciation and amortisation
Change in working capital
Others
Operating cash flow
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 16. Selected ratios
Gross margin, %
Operating margin, %
EBITDA margin, %
Net margin, %
ROA, %
ROE, %
Net gearing, %
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
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6 April 2015
Bukit Asam
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