State of the Automotive Finance Market First Quarter 2012
State of the Automotive Finance Market First Quarter 2012 Melinda Zabritski, Director of Automotive Credit © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Today’s presentation Questions- please enter questions in the Webinar tool and include slide number if possible Presentation- an email will be sent out later today with a link to download the presentation Melinda Zabritski Director of Automotive Credit © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 2 Session overview Market overview First quarter originations Overall automotive finance market Credit distributions Loan Balances Consumer delinquency VantageScore® Changes in new and used financing Originations by lender type and risk segmentation Loan and lease penetration Loan characteristics NADA values and LTV Scorex PLUSSM Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Visit: marketintelligencereports.com Score ranges Scorex Category PLUSSM Vantage Score® Super prime 801–990 Prime 740+ 680–739 701–800 Nonprime 620–679 641–700 Subprime 550–619 601–640 Deep subprime <550 501–600 Source: Experian Automotive North American Vehicle Database sourced from DMV title registrations and NADA Used Car Guides Visit: autocount.com © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 3 Overall Automotive Finance Market Automotive market overview with a look at consumer delinquency © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 4 Automotive finance market How has the market been changing? Risk distribution of open loans 100% YOY change in risk distribution 4% 90% 80% 39.4% 39.7% 1.97% 2% 1.22% 0.95% 70% 0% 60% 50% 25.1% 25.4% 15.6% 15.7% -4% 8.7% 11.1% 8.5% 10.7% -6% Q1 2011 Q1 2012 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Deep Subprime Nonprime subprime -0.94% -2% Prime Super prime -8% Deep subprime Subprime Prime Super prime Nonprime -8.70% -10% Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 5 Total automotive balance Who holds the open loans? Total outstanding loan balance YOY change in balance $700 $600 $500 $77 $142 $81 $144 $14 $13 $12 $10 $8 $400 $300 Billions Billions $26.8B $193 $200 $7 $6 $4 $200 $100 $4 $225 $2 $238 $2 $- Bank Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Captive Credit Union Finance $- YOY Change Bank Captive Credit Union Finance Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 6 Recent automotive delinquency: 30 day delinquency How are delinquency rates changing? 6% 5% 4.33% Overall 19 bps improvement 4% 4.83% 4.62% 6.42% 7.58% 9.80% 3% 2.25% 2.67% 2.50% 2.03% 2% 2.52% 13.03% 1.42% 2.33% 1.24% 1% 0% Bank Captive Credit Union Q1 2011 Finance Total Q1 2012 YOY Change Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 7 Recent automotive delinquency: 30 day delinquency What’s at risk? $16,000 $1.2B $14,000 $12,000 Captive Credit Union Finance $3,465 $(146) $(200) $1,773 $(204) $1,463 $8,000 $(300) $4,156 $(311) $3,951 $4,000 $2,000 $- Bank $(100) $3,612 $10,000 $6,000 YOY change in 30-day balance Millions Millions Balance of 30-day delinquent loans $(400) $3,960 $3,331 $(500) Q1 2011 Q1 2012 $(600) $- Bank Captive Credit Union YOY Change Finance $(700) $(629) Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 8 Recent automotive delinquency: 60 day delinquency How are delinquency rates changing? 7.94% 1.8% 1.6% 1.58% Overall 8 bps improvement 1.46% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 12.17% 11.73% 20.27% 0.8% 0.6% 0.60% 0.65% 14.33% 0.53% 0.50% 0.4% 0.40% 0.57% 0.35% 0.30% 0.2% 0.0% Bank Captive Credit Union Q1 2011 Finance Total Q1 2012 YOY Change Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 9 Recent automotive delinquency: 60 day delinquency What’s at risk? $3,500 $476M $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 YOY change in 60-day balance Millions Millions Balance of 60-day delinquent loans $- Bank Captive Credit Union Finance $(20) $1,047 $(40) $972 $396 $1,500 $734 $1,000 $(60) $314 $(80) $556 $(100) $(82) $(75) $(120) $500 $934 $793 $- $(160) Q1 2011 Bank $(140) Captive Q1 2012 Credit Union YOY Change $(180) Finance $(141) $(178) $(200) Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 10 Recent automotive delinquency: quarterly repossession How are repo rates changing? 3.0% 2.5% Overall 25 bps improvement 2.57% 54.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 37.1% 1.17% 20.1% 14.0% 11.1% 0.35% 0.30% 0.52% 0.68% 0.43% 0.41% 0.20% 0.18% 0.0% Bank Captive Credit Union Q1 2011 Finance Total Q1 2012 YOY Change Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 11 Average charge-off amount How have charge-offs changed? $206 $7,400 $7,232 $7,223 $7,200 $7,082 $7,017 $7,000 $6,800 $6,600 $6,400 $6,200 $184 $649 $320 $7,059 $6,898 $6,739 $6,729 $6,583 $527 $6,202 $6,000 $5,800 $5,600 Bank Captive Credit Union Q1 2011 Finance Total Q1 2012 YOY Change Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 12 New & Used Originations Automotive financing in the first quarter 2012 © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 13 Automotive market by transaction type How are consumers purchasing vehicles? No lender on title 51.2% 60% 40% Overall financing 49.1% 23.6% 23.0% 20% 0% New Q1 2011 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Used Q1 2012 3.49% 3.78% 30% 25% 96.51% 10.56% 88.94% 89.44% Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Total Loan Leasing by type 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 11.06% 96.22% 20% Total Lease New lease share of new financing 26.74% 24.05% 25.20% 24.44% 19.56% 15% 10% Q1 2011 Q1 2012 5% 0% New lease Used lease Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Source: Experian Automotive © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 14 Top new lease providers Who’s dominating in leasing? 18% 90% 16.5% 76.21% 16% 80% 14% 70% 11.4% 12% 10% 11.4% 43.03% 8% 10.8% 46.19% 56.92% 52.95% 52.41% 50% 9.0% 7.5% 31.05% 31.23% 7.3% 40% 6.0% 6% 60% 5.6% 30% 21.61% 4% 3.0% 20% 2% 11.54% 10% 0% AMERICAN HONDA FINANCE TOYOTA FINANCIAL SERVICES FORD MOTOR CREDIT NISSAN INFINITI FINANCIAL SERVICES ALLY Share of new lease market HYUNDAI CAPITAL AMERICA VW CREDIT MERCEDES BMW BANK INC BENZ OF NORTH FINANCIAL AMERICA CHASE AUTO FINANCE 0% % of new financing as lease Source: Experian Automotive © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 15 Market snapshot on vehicle loan financing What and where are consumers financing? Loans by vehicle type Current + 5 model years 60% New 35.12% 55.23% 50% Used 64.88% -17.2% 45.74% 40% 30% Used financing by dealer type 20% Independent Franchise 10% 49.1% 50.9% 0% Q1 2011 Q1 2012 YOY Change Source: Experian Automotive © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 16 Market snapshot on vehicle financing How has financing on vehicles changed? Average loan scores by vehicle type 800 780 760 773 776 766 753 Risk distribution of auto loans 100% -6 760 70% 53.78% 57.63% 59.28% 58.11% 55.62% 60% 720 700 660 -4.3% 80% 740 680 90% -4 661 653 665 663 659 50% 40% 5.9% 30% 640 20% 620 600 10% 580 0% Q1 2008 Q1 2009 New Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 46.22% 42.37% 40.72% 41.89% 44.38% Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Used Subprime Prime YOY Change Source: Experian Automotive © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 17 Quarterly financing for new vehicles How has credit changed for new financing? Risk distribution of new loans YOY change in new financing 100% 14% 90% 10% 65.55% 62.59% -3.0% 60% 8% 50% 6% 4.3% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% YOY Change 11.5% 10.2% 80% 70% 11.5% 12% 4% 13.66% 14.25% 11.26% 12.56% 7.53% 2.00% 8.40% 2.20% Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Deep subprime Nonprime Super prime 2% Subprime Prime 11.4% 0% -2% Deep Subprime Nonprime subprime Prime Super prime -4% -6% -4.5% Source: Experian Automotive © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 18 Quarterly financing for used vehicles How has credit changed for used financing? Risk distribution of used loans YOY change in used financing 100% 15% 90% 80% 32.97% 30.45% -4.85% 11.0% 10% 70% 60% 12.47% 12.78% 50% 14.35% 15.92% 8.1% 5% 2.5% 40% 30% 17.41% 18.82% 0% 20% 10% 22.81% 22.03% 0% -5% Q1 2011 YOY Change 4.04% Deep subprime Nonprime Super prime Deep Subprime Nonprime subprime Prime Super prime -3.4% Q1 2012 Subprime Prime -7.6% -10% Source: Experian Automotive © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 19 Automotive finance by lender type What lenders are gaining share? New loan market share Automotive loan market share 45% 15% 40.21% 10.5% 40% 35% 10% 7.5% 30% 5% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 30.4% 47.85% Bank 25% 16.68%16.89% 14.78% -5% 11.44% -3.8% 15% 10% -12.7% 5% -11.5% -10% -15% Bank BHPH Captive Credit Finance Union Market share YOY change in share -8.7% BHPH Captive 11.54% Credit Union -29.9% 4.47% Finance YOY change in share Used loan market share 40% 36.07% 30% 8.5% 5.0% 17.56% 20% 0% -68.7% 0.13% Market share 0% 20% 36.01% 6.6% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 10% -12.8% 6.21% BHPH -16.4% Captive 0% Bank Market share 19.79% 20.37% 0.2% Credit Union Finance 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% YOY change in share Source: Experian Automotive © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 20 Risk distribution by lender type How have the lenders shifted? Risk distribution of market share 100% 5.74% 3.39% 11.45% 6.14% 3.89% 7.70% 90% 80% 70% 52.09% 16.69% 58.65% 35.28% 0% 14.27% 15% 18.30% 15.55% 65.59% 14.96% 30% 10% 21.22% 20% 50% 20% 25% 47.76% 60% 40% YOY change in subprime financing 18.35% 44.13% 14.84% 9.28% 11.29% 2.27% 4.30% 15.59% 12.77% 4.00% Bank BHPH Captive Deep subprime Subprime Prime Super prime Credit Union 10% 6.76% 5% 3.52% 2.09% Finance Nonprime 0% © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Bank BHPH Captive Credit Finance Union 21 Top 20 lenders by market share Who gained or lost share? 261% 7% 6.39% 5.71% 6% 100% 48.43% of All Financing 4.85% 5% 80% 4.27% 4.09% 46.0% 4% 60% 3.41% 40% 2.92% 3% 4.1% 1.98% 1.78% -0.7% -6.4% -18.4% -26.5% 17.7% 14.0% 13.1% 2% 1% 120% 101.5% 17.4% 15.0% 6.0% 1.67% 1.64% -22.9% 1.43% 1.27% -8.6% -8.2% 1.21% 1.09% 1.06% -6.5% 2.9% 0.96% 0.94% 0.88% 0.87% -21.8% 0% 20% 0% -20% -40% Q1 2012 Share YOY change in share Source: Experian Automotive © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 22 Top 20 new lenders by market share Who gained or lost new loan share? 499% 75.25% of New Financing 12% 10.52% 10% 200% 149.9% 141.1% 150% 8.17% 8.09% 7.36% 7.06% 8% 86.2% 100% 6% 4.44% 21.7% 4% -0.6% 2% -18.8% 50% 2.60% 2.35% -8.0% -13.6% -39.7% 45.9% 4.06% 4.00% 31.2% 2.15% 2.13% 2.10% -2.0% -32.1% Q1 2012 Share 6.4% 1.61% 1.56% 1.55% 1.41% 1.38% -17.5% 1.37% 1.31% -3.4% -12.3% 0% 31.1% -18.5% -50% YOY change in share Source: Experian Automotive © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 0% 23 Top 20 used lenders by market share Who gained or lost used loan share? 160% 7% 37.78% of Used Financing 6.63% 28.7% 6% 4.16% 4% 3% 8.3% 3.91% 5.5% 11.6% 20% 6.7% 16.6% 5.1% 10% 3.50% -8.1% 2% 30% 19.1% 25.4% 5% 40% 0% -0.2% 2.33% 2.17% -25.3% -6.4% -4.2% 1.67% 1.64% -13.0% 1.36% 1.31% 1.29% 1.15% 1.12% 1% -11.9% -12.1% -25.2% 0.89% 0.89% 0.86% 0.82% 0.74% 0.68% -10% -20% 0.65% -35.9% 0% -30% -40% Q1 2012 Share YOY change in share Source: Experian Automotive © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 24 Vehicle financing How has financing changed? Average new amount financed Average amount financed $589 $30,000 $25,000 $30,000 $20,000 $25,406 $25,995 $21,861 $24,120 $27,399 $26,801 $25,143 $23,118 $26,140 $26,845 $25,721 $25,217 $15,000 $25,000 $411 $10,000 $5,000 $ $20,000 Deep subprime $16,639 $17,050 Subprime Nonprime Q1 2011 $15,000 Prime Super prime Q1 2012 Average used amount financed $10,000 $20,000 $15,000 $5,000 $10,000 $13,177 $12,829 $14,824 $18,128 $16,793 $15,331 $16,136 $17,529 $18,878 $18,296 $5,000 $ New Q1 2011 Used Q1 2012 $ Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Q1 2011 Prime Super prime Q1 2012 YOY Change Source: Experian Automotive © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 25 Loan-to-Value by lender type How do the lenders compare? Average LTV by lender 160% 600 147.92% 140% 122.50% 121.17% 129.40% 120% 100% YOY change in LTV (bps) 128.41% 108.49% 111.97% 467 400 120.70% 108.20% 500 109.26% 300 208 80% 200 60% 100 40% 1 - 20% Bank (13) (100) 0% Bank Captive Average LTV new Credit Union Finance Market Totals Average LTV used (200) (300) Captive (36) (78) Credit Union Finance (1) Market Totals (16) (171) (239) Source: Experian Automotive and NADA Used Car Guides © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 26 Loan-to-Value by risk segment How do the risk segments compare? Average LTV by risk segment 160% 400 145.52% 137.18% 140% 120% 122.34% YOY change in LTV (bps) 133.18% 124.08% 122.99% 128.73% 344 300 249 116.76% 117.85% 200 100% 148 101.96% 80% 126 123 100 60% 6 - 40% 20% Deep Subprime Nonprime subprime (90) 0% Average LTV new Super prime Average LTV used Super prime (55) (100) Deep Subprime Nonprime Prime subprime Prime (152) (200) (223) (300) © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 27 Average loan payments How have payments changed? Average new payment Average monthly payment $1 $500 $460 $461 $3 $450 $400 $343 $350 $346 $475 $470 $465 $460 $455 $450 $445 $440 $435 $471 $467 $464 $459 Subprime Nonprime $461 $460 $461 $450 Deep subprime $300 $458 $462 Q1 2011 $250 $200 Prime Super prime Q1 2012 Average used payment $150 $100 $50 $ New Q1 2011 Used Q1 2012 $360 $355 $350 $345 $340 $335 $330 $325 $320 $356 $351 $357 $333 Deep subprime Subprime $345 $339 $350 Nonprime Q1 2011 $336 $345 $335 Prime Super prime Q1 2012 YOY Change Source: Experian Automotive © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 28 Average loan terms How have terms changed? Average new term Average loan term 72 72 69.89 69.29 64 60 69.01 68.61 67.90 67.19 66.44 60 1 mo 63 69.60 1 mo 60.80 48 Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Q1 2011 59 58 61.41 Prime Super prime Q1 2012 Average used term 72 60 New Q1 2011 Used Q1 2012 61.03 59.83 52.06 57.90 51.23 48 61.88 60.82 58.61 60.42 59.56 48 Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Q1 2011 Prime Super prime Q1 2012 YOY Change Source: Experian Automotive © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 29 Distribution of loan term How have loan terms changed? New financing by term 42.59% 45% Used financing by term 20% 40% 15% 35% 15.4% 40% 35.03% 35% 10% 29.56% 30% 29.89% 30% 0.2% 15.12% 0% 25-36 37-48 49-60 61-72 73-84 14.77% -0.1% 15% 10% 8.21% -10% 5% -3.4% -15% 0% -9.5% 4.77% 5% 0% -5% 6.60% 10% 20% -4.0% 15% 15% 5.3% 5% 20% 5% 20% 25% 2.6% 25% 10% 21.9% 25% 0% -8.8% 9.13% -5% -10% -15% 25-36 37-48 49-60 61-72 73-84 % of new financing by term % of new financing by term YOY change in term YOY change in term © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 30 Average loan rate How have rates changed? Average loan rate 10% 9.08% 9.02% 9% 8% 7% Average new rate 6 bps 27 bps 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 4.83% 4.56% 9.90% 13.57% 6.46% 10.38% 4.52% 6.76% Deep subprime 6% 5% 12.89% Subprime 4.95% Nonprime Q1 2011 Prime 3.21% 3.64% Super prime Q1 2012 4% Average used rate 3% 20% 2% 15% 1% 17.90% 9.53% 14.64% 10% 0% 14.42% 17.85% 5% New Q1 2011 Used Q1 2012 6.44% 9.88% 7.04% 4.40% 5.06% 0% Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Q1 2011 Prime Super prime Q1 2012 YOY Change Source: Experian Automotive © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 31 In summary Overall, open portfolios continue to be strong with increasing total balances (up nearly $27 billion) Historic lows for delinquencies Credit continues to loosen on originations ► Subprime share financing has increased (11% on New; 4% on Used) ► Average scores continue to decrease Finance amounts increased for both new and used ► Terms increasing among all risk segments ● Long term loans growing ► Rates decreasing for both new and used However, despite loosening credit and extended terms, LTVs are down from previous year © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 32 Reminder Don’t forget to fill out survey! An email with a link to the presentation will be sent to all attendees later today. Thank you for attending the presentation. © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 33 © 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 34
© Copyright 2024