Redistributive Land Reform and Productivity∗ ˙ scan† Talan B. I¸ May 7, 2015 Abstract In landlord systems with sharecropping arrangements, cultivators are often owners and tenants at the same time, which leads to inefficient allocation of effort on owned and leased land. Using a general equilibrium model, I examine the impact of redistributive land reform on farm productivity and reallocation of labor out of agriculture in such settings. At the individual level, cultivators respond to land reform by reallocating their effort over owned and formerly-leased land, and, at the aggregate level, labor responds by reallocating from farm to nonfarm employment due to low income elasticity of demand for farm goods and complementarity in consumption between farm and nonfarm goods. The strength of these responses depend on the initial degree of land inequality and initial income. I provide a quantitative analysis of these responses using Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan as historical cases. JEL classification: O41, O11, N1. Keywords: redistributive land reform; labor reallocation; productivity; structural change; land inequality; East Asia ∗ I thank Francisco Alvarez-Cuadrado, Ben Dennis, Andrea Giusto, Dozie Okoye, and the participants of the MED study group for comments, and Universidad Carlos III de Madrid for its hospitality during the early stages of this research. My understanding of the land reforms in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan owes a great deal to Qi Chen. This research was not externally funded. The author declares no competing financial interests. † Dalhousie University. E-mail : tiscan@dal.ca. 1 Introduction Recent research has emphasized the significance of historical differences in wealth inequality, in particular, land inequality, in understanding contemporary differences in economic outcomes across countries and regions (Engerman and Sokoloff, 1997; Banerjee and Iyer, 2005; Frankema, 2010). In many poor, agrarian societies where land constitutes the biggest component of non-human wealth, many economic decisions surrounding investment, labor supply, occupational choice, and migration cannot be thought in isolation of distributional issues—especially when inequality deprives some segments of the society of full utilization of their productive capacity. One well-studied implication of land inequality is resource allocation, especially in those societies where landlords have claims on economic surplus generated by tenant, cultivator farmers. When credit market imperfections are acute, wealth poor but otherwise perfectly capable tenants cannot purchase the land they cultivate because they cannot borrow against their future earnings. With landlords as claimant on their effort, tenants provide suboptimal effort on leased land and landlords respond by suboptimal investment in land (Shaban, 1987; Laffont and Matoussi, 1995). While, such findings have long been used as an economic argument for land redistribution, the empirical literature found mixed results concerning the impact of land redistribution on productivity in agriculture (Binswanger, Deininger, and Feder, 1995). Thus, there appears to be a disconnect between the evidence emerging from direct estimates of efficiency in sharecropping environments and land reform episodes that reduce or eliminate sharecropping. In this paper, I reconcile these seemingly inconsistent findings using a general equilibrium model, and I identify a number of mechanisms that have hitherto been overlooked in the literature. The basic economic reasoning builds on the fact that in landlord systems with sharecropping arrangements, cultivators are often owners and tenants at the same time. In the model, this combination of owned and leased land presents itself to the cultivators as an effort allocation problem, whose solution delivers exerting inefficiently higher effort on owned land. In other words, the initial distribution of land and the resulting sharecropping arrangements can be seen as an economic distortion, whereby allocation of effort across different plots of land is inefficient. Consequently, following a redistribution of ownership rights from landlords to tenants, the cultivators reallocate their effort: they reduce effort on owned land and increase it on formerly leased land. Elementary economic reasoning then suggests that such an improvement in allocative efficiency alone improves farm productivity. And, higher the degree of initial land inequality, the stronger the effects of this channel on labor productivity. As such, the model generates intersectoral productivity differences across plots of land, and points to endogenous gains in farm productivity through the elimination of inefficiencies arising from sharecropping. At the same time, this effort reallocation channel has mixed consequences for labor versus 1 land productivity, particularly once one takes into consideration the general equilibrium effects. First, as a result of more efficient allocation of effort on different plots of land, labor productivity increases, but, all else equal, less intensive use of owned land reduces its productivity. Moreover, as long as effort has an opportunity cost, a redistribution not only frees cultivators from claimants on their effort, which, at the margin, tends to increase effort, but also by reallocating effort more efficiently, it increases income, which tends to reduce effort. This is particularly the case if additional productivity does not generate proportionate demand for farm goods and instead simply reduces their relative price—as would be the case when the income elasticity of demand for food is less than one or farm and nonfarm goods are complements in consumption. If this reallocation effect by cultivators is sufficiently strong, total effort may end up declining. This in turn may lead to a weak association between land redistribution and productivity growth in agriculture at the aggregate level. In addition, the general equilibrium ramifications of land redistribution extend beyond the farm sector. By increasing the share of income going to cultivators, land redistribution stimulates their demand for domestic nonfarm goods. The combination of rising efficiency in the farm sector, falling farm prices, and rising demand for nonfarm goods leads to rural to urban migration. Consequently, a redistribution of land ownership rights accelerates structural transformation, and acts like a labor saving and land using productivity growth in agriculture. Finally, the magnitude of land and labor productivity growth in agriculture, as well as the pace of labor reallocation out of agriculture in the aftermath of a redistributive land reform depend both on the initial distribution of land between landlords and tenants and initial income. For instance, relative to countries with low initial inequality and high income, those with high initial inequality and low income tend to exhibit a faster pace of structural change following a redistributive land reform. As such, differences in initial conditions can also weaken the association between land redistribution and productivity growth in agriculture. In the empirical part of the paper, I use this general equilibrium framework to account for the possible impact of land reforms on farm productivity and reallocation of labor out of agriculture in postwar Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.1 All three countries undertook extensive redistributive land reforms in the late 1940s and early 1950s, when their economies were still highly reliant on agriculture and farms employed a large share of their labor force. These reforms had dramatic impacts on the distribution of land among farm households: after the reforms, land distribution became highly equal and tenancy almost disappeared in all three countries. What is critical 1 I refer to the Korean peninsula occupied by Japan before World War II as Korea, the territory of the contemporary Republic of Korea as South Korea, and the island of Taiwan, Province of China, as Taiwan. At the end of the World War II (WWII) in 1945, the Korean peninsula south of the 38th parallel was occupied by the United States, and the north was occupied by the Soviet Union. In 1948, the south declared independence by founding the Republic of Korea, and the north founded Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. In 1950 North Korea triggered a war devastating for both sides and that ended in 1953 with an armistice, which remains fragile even today. 2 about these cases is that their land reforms were largely exogenous, with no explicit or implicit objective to improve efficiency in the farm sector. Yet, most studies have found that redistributive land reforms have uniformly improved agricultural productivity in these countries, but there does not appear to be an explanation in the literature for why their responses to reforms were also significantly different.2 Their subsequent rates of reallocation of labor from farm to nonfarm sectors, capital accumulation, and economic growth were also remarkably high (Young, 1995), and many commentators have alluded to land reforms and low land inequality as factors contributing to these outcomes as well (e.g., Rodrik, 1995).3 Yet, there has been limited attempts to quantify the contribution of redistributive land reform to rapid resource reallocation across sectors in these countries, a gap I also fill with this paper. Related literature. This paper contributes to the literature on the impact of initial wealth distribution on subsequent economic performance. I study the consequences of (exogenous) redistributive land reforms that reset the initial conditions in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. A different methodology employed in the historical literature studies those cases in which initial wealth inequality is determined by geography. For instance, Engerman and Sokoloff (1997, 2006) argue that, during colonization, wealth inequality in the Americas was primarily determined by geographic factors: plantation agriculture in sub-tropical regions and mining resulted in highly concentrated wealth distributions that gave way to a coercive social and economic structure ruled by elites, whereas family-farming in temperate regions resulted in highly equal land distributions that gave way to a participatory social and economic structure. According Engerman and Sokoloff, these exogenous variations across regions in inequality had echoes in educational attainment, health, and emergence of democracy even centuries later. However, such geography-based explanations encompass both markets and institutions as intermediating determinants of inequality. The reason is that regions in the Americas with sub-tropical climates and rich mineral resources specialized in plantation agriculture and mining and were almost exclusively oriented toward export markets. This blunted the necessity to develop local markets and to increase domestic income and demand, cementing initial inequality. Northern regions of the Americas, by contrast, faced a fiercely competitive export market for the crops and products they produced, and hence responded to these market conditions by encouraging the development of their local economies. See Binswanger et al. (1995).4 2 See, for instance, Kaneda (1980) on Japan, Jeon and Kim (2000) on South Korea, and Koo (1968) on Taiwan. This is consistent with the view that land inequality retards economic growth because it creates a political arms-race between those for and against redistribution (Alesina and Rodrik, 1994; Galor, Moav, and Vollrath, 2009; Falkinger and Grossmann, 2013). 4 See Easterly (2007) for a cross-country examination of the link between inequality as caused by geographic factors and economic development. Frankema (2010) emphasizes the influence of pre-colonial land tenure systems and social conditions in shaping colonial origins of inequality. 3 3 In pre-reform Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, land equality had different determinants. Before WWII, land inequality in Japan was primarily the legacy of the Land Tax Revision in 1873, which granted ownership rights to landowners (who were responsible for the feudal land tax), and not to the traditional tenants (Kawagoe, 1999). In South Korea and Taiwan, land inequality was largely due to coercive colonial practices. Moreover, none of these countries had plantation agriculture based on hired, indentured or slave labor. While as temperate-zone countries Japan and South Korea are not suitable for growing plantation crops, Taiwan with its tropical climate is suitable for sugar cane and banana farming. However, plantation agriculture never took foothold in Taiwan. Monsoon rice farming by family labor was the predominant form of traditional agriculture in all three cases (Oshima, 1986). Both South Korea and Taiwan became large exporters of rice to Japan during the colonial period, but this was the result of extractive Japanese colonial policies and high tariffs in Japan on agricultural imports outside her colonies.5 As a result, the histories of these three countries contain episodes of both high and low land inequality, and their determinants are distinct from those observed in the Americas.6 Outside the Americas, there is a growing literature on the nexus between land inequality and economic performance in India. In particular, Banerjee and Iyer (2005) argue that, while, during their colonial rule in India, British granted tax collection powers to landlords in some regions, they directly taxed individual cultivators (independent farmers or village collectives) in others, and that these regional variations were based on historical accidents rather than economic reasons— thus creating a landlord class in certain places where it previously had not existed. According to Banerjee and Iyer (2005), more than a century later non-landlord regions had superior education and health outcomes than landlord districts.7 There is also an empirical literature which studies the impact of tenancy and redistributive land reforms on agricultural productivity. Ghatak and Roy (2007) survey this literature on India and conclude that while many Indian states have legislated land redistribution and tenancy laws after independence, the timing and implementation of these laws varied considerably across states. They find that West Bengal, with the best record in implementing a serious land reform, had a superior productivity growth in agriculture.8 Overall, the literature on India suggests that, after controlling for the intensity and effectiveness of the land reform legislation, there is a positive 5 Before the Korean peninsula was politically divided, North was the industrial base, and South was largely rural. Also, as a qualifier, I should add that cotton (a plantation crop) can grow in some islands of Japan, but its production disappeared under international competition in the early twentieth century (Honma and Hayami, 2009). 6 Of course, all three countries, later in the second half of the twentieth century developed highly export-oriented manufacturing sectors, but this was largely due to their rapid industrialization rather than the cause of it (Rodrik, 1995). 7 Banerjee and Iyer (2005) argue that, in their data, initial regional variation in land inequality is exogenous and is correlated with the tax collection system instituted by the British. 8 See Besley and Burgess (2000) for a chronology of land reform legislation by state in India, and (Banerjee, Gertler, and Ghatak, 2002) for a discussion of the reforms in West Bengal, as well as their consequences for agricultural productivity. 4 causal link between land reform and subsequent productivity growth in agriculture. There is also a substantial theoretical literature that links distribution of wealth to economic performance. Some of the causal channels studied in this literature include those related to demand for and supply of education (Engerman and Sokoloff, 2006; Galor et al., 2009), agricultural investment (Ghatak and Roy, 2007), occupational choice (Falkinger and Grossmann, 2013; Banerjee and Newman, 1993), and endogenous technological change through scale economies or learning by doing (Greenwood and Jovanovic, 1990; Matsuyama, 1992). In this paper, I focus on a productivity channel driven by endogenous effort, and link redistributive land reform specifically to reallocation of labor out of agriculture. Finally, a recent literature has pointed to misallocation of resources both within and across sectors as a source of underdevelopment (Hsieh and Klenow, 2009; McMillan and Rodrik, 2011). Here, equilibrium allocation of effort by cultivators across leased and owned parcels of land constitutes an example of such misallocation. Otherwise, there are no distortions that directly affect the allocation of labor across sectors. The organization of the rest of the papers is as follows. Section 2 provides background information on redistributive land reforms on Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Section 3 presents a two-sector macroeconomic model, in which farmers cultivate multiple plots of land, either leased or owned. Section 4.2 discusses the principal economic mechanisms included in the model and that are responsible for farm productivity growth and structural change in the aftermath of a redistributive land reform. Section 5 compares the actual outcomes observed in the three countries with those predicted by the model. Section 6 concludes. 2 Land reforms in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan Since the model and the economic analysis below relies on the concrete cases of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, I start with a description of their land tenure systems at the time of their land reforms. Historically, these have been land-scarce countries with labor-intensive paddy rice farming: in 1955 arable land per farm household was merely one hectare in Japan, .9 hectare in South Korea, and 1.19 hectare in Taiwan—some of the lowest in the contemporary world. Until recently, land was the single most important asset for the majority of their households.9 Land tenure and agriculture not only shaped their traditional economies, but also shaped the relations among these three countries. In early twentieth century Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, ownership rights over land were 9 Japan’s arable land has been about twice as big as that of South Korea, which in turn has had slightly more than twice the arable land in Taiwan (Honma and Hayami, 2009). In 1959, land in South Korea was about 75 percent of total wealth (land, structures, and producer durables), and between 1961–1981 on average land accounted for 87 percent of tangible fixed assets in agriculture, and 16 percent of such assets in non-agriculture (Young, 1995). 5 held by a small landlord class, which leased the land to a large peasant class. In return for the use rights, landlords typically received about 50 percent of the annual crop yield as rent—an arrangement that is quite common in many agricultural societies. While in isolated cases landlords provided inputs and were responsible for substantial investments in land, high rents were essentially a manifestation of land scarcity and ownership rights bestowed on landlords—through either feudal or colonial coercion. By the turn of the twentieth century, Japan already had a land registration system in the service of a broad-based, advanced land tax, had established agricultural research and extension services, and invested in major irrigation and drainage infrastructure. Japan also colonized Korea and Taiwan during its imperialist expansion from 1895 lasting until the end of WWII. Taiwan was acquired at the end of the Sino-Japanese war in 1895, and Korea was first declared as a protectorate in 1905, and then fully annexed in 1910. In Korea and Taiwan, Japanese colonial governments invested in irrigation projects and extension services for new seed varieties and fertilizers with the aim of converting them into suppliers of cheap rice (Ban, Mun, and Perkins, 1980; Honma and Hayami, 2009).10 Even before such major investments in agriculture, the Japanese colonial governments had conducted extensive land surveys and registered land holdings for better tax administration and collection; in Taiwan from 1898 to 1905 and in Korea from 1911 to 1918 (Yoo and Steckel, 2010). In a way, by lowering administrative costs and reducing the incidence of contested claims on land, this pre-existing legal infrastructure facilitated post WWII land redistribution. At the time of their redistributive land reforms, all three countries had largely rural-based economies with considerable land and income inequality.11 Even in 1955, the share of agricultural workers in economically active population was 34 percent in Japan, 54 percent in Taiwan, and 80 percent in South Korea (Honma and Hayami, 2009, Table 2.1).12 Land and rural income distributions were highly skewed: In Japan (1935), 3.2 percent of the farm households owned 30 percent of the cultivated land (Kawagoe, 1999, Table 4-9); in Taiwan (1930), about 6 percent of the farm households owned half of the cultivated land (Ryoo, 1978, Table 10); and in Korea (1945), about 3 percent of the farm households owned two-thirds of the cultivated land, and 4 percent of the rural population received about a quarter of total farm income (Ban et al., 1980). Although a small percentage of peasants was landless,13 most scholars point to the lack of wage labour and 10 This colonial policy was supplemented by tax-free rice imports to Japan from its colonies in the aftermath of 1918 Rice Riots. For instance, in pre-war (1938) Korea, rice and barley constituted about 70 percent of agricultural output (Ban et al., 1980, Table 47). Rice continued to be the single most important crop in all three countries after the war. 11 Chen (1961), Ban et al. (1980), and Dore (1959) are excellent individual accounts of land reforms in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. See Dorner and Thiesenhusen (1990) for a review. 12 For these countries, the only pre-war estimate of the share of employment in agriculture I came across is for Japan at 43 percent in 1938/40 (Hayami and Ruttan, 1971, Table C3). 13 For estimates of hired farm labor in pre-reform Taiwan see footnote 23 below, and in pre-reform South Korea see Table 1. 6 socio-economic differentiation among non-landlord cultivators in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan in the pre-reform period (e.g., Honma and Hayami, 2009). The trigger for redistributive land reforms in all three countries was the historically contingent events during and following the end of WWII. During the war, price controls and compulsory deliveries to secure food supplies had already undermined the economic and political powers of landlords. After the war, the political turmoil in the region contributed greatly to the implementation of land reforms. In Japan, the land reform (1947–1949) was implemented under the directive of the American Occupation Forces, fitting in with the broader objectives of the allied forces after the war to keep Germany and Japan pastoral–rural societies in which a non-militarist democracy would flourish.14 In Taiwan, the land reform (1949–1953) was initiated in order to solidify the local political support for the breakaway Chinese Nationalist government Kuomingtang on the island. The Sino-American Joint Commission on Rural Reconstruction, which administered the U.S. foreign aid in Taiwan was highly instrumental and provided technical assistance. In South Korea, the land reform moved in two phases. The first phase (1945–1946) involved the expropriation of land from the Japanese landlords by U.S. occupation forces. The second phase (1949–1952) was in part prompted by Kuomingtang’s failure to implement a thorough land reform in mainland China and its subsequent failure to hold on to political power. It was also an attempt to counterbalance the sympathy for the regime in the North, which had earlier completed a wholesale land redistribution to peasants (Ban et al., 1980; Dorner and Thiesenhusen, 1990; Kawagoe, 1999; Jeon and Kim, 2000).15 In all three cases, land reforms were essentially confiscatory from the viewpoint of former landlords, involved sales of public land to smallholders, and resulted in a highly equal distribution of farmland. In all cases, reforms set a ceiling on the farmland size. At the same time, prices paid to compensate former landlords and for public land bought by farmers were highly advantageous to farmers, set at below market rates. In Japan, the purchase price was based on 1938 nominal rental values, which had been eroded in value substantially through wartime inflation, and even that amount was to be paid over 30 years at a fixed interest rate of 3.6 percent (Dore, 1959; Kawagoe, 1999). In South Korea, the compensation of non-Japanese landlords was 1.5 times the annual yield paid over five years with no interest (and in many cases, these payments were extended to 8 years). This effectively amounted to the confiscation of land (Ban et al., 1980). In Taiwan, starting with the farm rent reduction program in 1949, the government first limited the rents to 37.5 percent of the total main crop (usually rice) yield, and then instituted a land-to-the-tiller program in 1953. 14 Japan had a smaller scale land-to-the-tiller reform program from 1926 to 1937, which provided tenants with credit to purchase the land they leased. So, there already was an administrative system in place (Kawagoe, 1999). 15 The U.S. occupation was favorable to and even instrumental in these three land reforms because of political expediency. In the Philippines, where it had similar political influence and where land inequality was possibly even higher, the United States exerted no such political pressure. 7 The public lands and land above the set ceiling that were sold to the incumbent cultivators at a price of 2.5 times the average annual yield paid over 10 years (Chen, 1961).16 The consequences of these land reforms were striking. After the reforms, tenancy almost disappeared and all three countries had relatively low and similar inequality in land, as measured by their low Gini coefficients for land holdings (Table 1).17 Overall, there is no disagreement about the equalizing consequences of the land redistributions in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. In all the three cases, the stated objectives of redistributive land reforms were consistently framed along political dimensions. To my knowledge, there was no attempt to estimate the expected economic impact of these policy changes. The interest in the topic surged after the implementation of the reforms and acceleration in agricultural productivity. 3 A two-sector model To examine the consequences of the types of redistributive land reforms discussed above for productivity and structural change, I develop a general equilibrium model, which captures the broad features of the pre-reform agrarian structure with characteristics seen in post-war Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Consistent with the empirical findings from the literature on the inefficiency of sharecropping (e.g., Shaban, 1987), in equilibrium, tenants exert less effort on leased land relative to owned land (Section 3.1). I embed this agrarian structure within a two-sector economy (Section 3.2), and then describe its general equilibrium connections (Section 3.3). Preliminaries. Consider a small open economy with no labor and capital mobility across bor- ders; only final goods are exchanged and balance on trade is zero in each time period. Time is discrete t = 0, 1, 2, . . .. There are two distinct goods f (“food”) and n (“non-food”). Food is produced in the farm sector using land and labor effort (as defined below), and non-food is produced in the nonfarm sector using capital and labor services. There are no land markets. There are four classes of individuals defined by their “occupations”: capitalists, workers, cultivators, and absentee landlords. Capitalists own the (domestic) physical capital stock. They do not own land. Workers, indexed by h = 1, 2, . . . , H, work in the non-food sector. They do not own assets. Cultivators indexed by i = 1, 2, . . . , I work in the farm sector. They own and operate distinct plots of land. Absentee landlords indexed by j = 1, 2, . . . , J own and lease plots of land and provide no other input into production. Denote total population by N . Total labor force is 16 In pre-war Korea, land prices were four to five times the normal annual crop yield (Jeon and Kim, 2000). As a point of international comparison, Besley and Burgess (2000) report that in several Indian states which implemented land reforms, the purchase price of land from the landlords was 15 to 20 times the normal annual yield. 17 Income inequality in the overall population also decreased. In Japan, income Gini index declined from 46.7 in 1940 to 32.2 in 1956. In South Korea, income Gini index was 34.0 in 1953 and in Taiwan it was 44.5 in 1959 (WIDER, 2008). 8 Table 1: Land tenancy and inequality of land holdings in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan— selected pre- and post-reform years Country/ Year Tenancy status of farm households, % Tenancy status of cultivated land, % Ownera Tenantb Year Owner Tenant Year Gini coefficient 52 56 85 91 48 44 15 9 1941 1947 1949 1955 54 60 87 91 46 40 13 9 1937c 0.50 1960 0.40 44 48 93 56 49 7 1945 1965 36 82 64 18 1970 0.37 61 83 89 40 17 11 1948 1956 56 85 44 15 1960 0.39 Japan 1941 1947 1949 1955 South Korea 1938 1945d 1965 Taiwan 1946 1955 1970 a Owner farmers include owner-farmers, who own 90% or more of the land they cultivate, and owner-tenants, who own 50% to 90% of the land they cultivate. b Tenant farmers include tenant-owners, who own 10%–50% of the land they cultivate, and tenants, who own less than 10% of the land they cultivated. c Refers to Gini for rural income distribution, and the midpoint of the range 0.45–0.55 given in the original source. The postwar Gini for rural income distribution is about 0.35. d Remaining 2.7% of farm households is classified as “farm laborer and burnt field farmers.” Sources: Tenancy status for Japan are from Kawagoe (1999, Tables 6-1, 6-2); South Korea from Ban et al. (1980), and for Taiwan tenancy status of farm households is from Ryoo (1978, Table 66) and that of cultivated land is from Chen (1961, Table 10). Gini coefficients are from Kawagoe (1999, pp. 1–2) for Japan in 1937, Frankema (2010) for Japan and Taiwan in 1960, and from (FAO, 2013, Table 2) for South Korea in 1970. 9 L = I + H, with lf = I/L denoting the share of labor in the farm sector (similarly for ln for the nonfarm sector). The number of capitalists is N − L − J. Below, the relative sizes of cultivators and workers, will change over time, but I keep the sizes of landlords and capitalists fixed. 3.1 The farm sector Production. Landlords own plots and rent them to cultivators, who are both tenants and own- ers of land. Cultivators use their owned and leased plot for fodder (for livestock) and cereal (for humans) production. Fodder production could be either a by-product of cereal production or product of fallow land. Cereal production requires management time, effort, and land t. Each cultivator has one unit of “management time”. “Quality” of management is identical across cultivators. Each cultivator also has one unit of “work-time” which can be used with varying intensity, called “effort.”18 Total farmland T in the economy is fixed. Each landlord can have multiple tenants, but each tenant has at most one landlord. Let tij ≥ 0 represent a plot leased by cultivator i from landlord j. Similarly, let tii ≥ 0 denote a plot of land owned and operated by farm a operator i. Together, tii and tij completely characterize the distribution of land.19 Below, in the numerical solution of the model, I ensure that, in equilibrium, it is optimal for a cultivator to lease land. In general, I write xij for a generic input x used by tenant i on a plot leased from landlord j, and xii for the same input on a plot owned by the farmer. I also refer to those cultivators who do not rent from landlords as tenants with the understanding that xij = 0. Finally, I denote the vector of input choices by cultivator i by xi = {xii , xij }. Farm output by tenant i renting from landlord j a plot of land size tij is ( f yij = βtij , if eij = 0, β ∗ tij + zf g(f f (eij , tij )), if eij > 0, (1) where the parameters β > 0 and β ∗ > 0 determine land productivity relevant for fodder in units of cereal and corresponding to zero and non-zero effort levels, eij , respectively; zf > 0 is farm total factor productivity (TPF); f f (e, t) is a constant returns to scale production function, which combines the two inputs effort and land; and g(f f ) is a diminishing returns to scale production 18 In principle, landlords may own more land than they lease. Here, the analysis takes the amount of land to be leased as given. Thus, throughout I work under the assumption that the participation constraint for absentee landlords is always satisfied: they have no alternative use for the leased land and surplus extraction. Resident landlords would have alternative uses to leasing, including farming with hired labor. However, hired work-time requires costly monitoring to extract effort. I leave those complications surrounding monitoring of hired labor in the background, and simply assume that monitoring hired work-time in the farm sector is prohibitively costly. 19 In non-coercive environments with proper land markets, the distribution of land leased by cultivators from landlords has elements of choice driven by a surplus optimization problem solved by each landlord combined with an optimization problem solved by each tenant. Yet, in the cases I study, this distribution is historically determined, with landlords seizing (often with force) property rights from resident farmers (see also Binswanger et al., 1995). 10 function, which combines the managerial input with combined effort and land—managerial input is non-rival across plots.20 Only tenants can transform fodder into cereal equivalents. There is a similar expression for output from the cultivator-owned plot (with eii > 0): yiif = β ∗ tii + zf g(f f (eii , tii )). (2) Notice that each cultivator faces an effort allocation problem, so the effort level on owned plot and thus yiif depends on whether the cultivator as a tenant shirks or not. Contracts and enforcement. Rent contracts specify a 0 < λ < 1 fraction of cereal that is kept by the tenant, and the remaining 1 − λ fraction of cereal is handed to the landlord (sharecropping). Effort is unobservable and thus cannot be specified in a contract. For the landlord, zero effort e = 0 amounts to “shirking”: fodder has no use value for the landlord.21 Thus landlords monitor tenants to prevent from shirking. Monitoring has a probabilistic rate of success in catching those who shirk, but otherwise is not costly; this structure simplifies the landlord’s problem. If a tenant shirks and is caught, which occurs with probability 0 < π < 1, the landlord evicts the tenant, confiscates the fodder as punishment and collects a fixed rent τ ≥ 0. If a tenant shirks but is not caught, the tenant blames the weather or other exogenous factors for crop failure and gets away with fodder equivalent to βtij units of cereal. The landlord receives nothing. Farm output yi received by tenant i renting from landlord j depends on contract share λij , effort, land input, and the outcome of monitoring by the landlord. There are three cases: farm income when the tenant shirks (eij = 0) and is caught; income when the tenant shirks and is not caught; and income when the tenant does not shirk (eij > 0). These income levels depend on output:22 f yii − τ yif = yiif + βtij yf + λ yf ii ij ij if eij = 0, and caught (prob. π), if eij = 0, and not caught (prob. 1 − π), (3) if eij > 0. It follows that the farm output yij received by landlord j leasing to tenant i also depends on 20 This formulation is in the spirit of “span of control” approach to production (Lucas, 1978). Koo (1968, p. 31) notes that in pre-reform Taiwan farm by-products were also subject to rent, and Johnston and Kilby (1975, p.253) stress the significance of livestock feed in Taiwanese agriculture. Shaban (1987, p. 898) reports that under sharecropping contracts, crop by-products, mostly fodder, were left to tenants in at least one semi-arid village (Dokar) in India. 22 I express the share contract over the entire output when eij > 0, despite the fact that fodder has no use value for the landlord. Doing so is reasonable because landlords anticipate the value of fodder to their tenants, and set the contract share based on composite output. If, for some reason, this were not possible, it would be straightforward to adjust the β ∗ by the share parameter. So, the precise formulation pursued here is not restrictive for the analysis that follows. 21 11 whether the landlord detects a shirking tenant if eij = 0, and detect (prob. π), τ ` yij = 0 (1 − λ )y f ij ij if eij = 0, and not detect (prob. 1 − π), (4) if eij > 0. Finally, total output received by landlord j is yj` = ` i yij . P Preferences. Cultivators have identical preferences, which are represented by an additively separable lifetime utility function. Their instantaneous utility depends on consumption of food cf and non-food cn , and effort e ∈ [0, emax ]: u(cf , cn ) − v(e), (5) where u and v are both strictly concave functions defined over positive values of cf , cn , and positive and feasible values of e. (I specify the functional forms used in the quantitative analysis below in n o Section 4.1.) Let ci = cif , cin denote the consumption vector of tenant i with the two elements representing food and non-food consumption, respectively. Landlords, on the other hand, have preferences for a luxury good c∗ only produced abroad, represented by a utility function U increasing in c∗ : U (cj∗ ) is the utility by landlord j consuming c∗ ≥ 0. This formulation is consistent with the view that absentee landlords’ income typically represented a “leakage” for the local economy, and were not recycled back into the local market. The relative price of this good q in terms of the nonfarm good is exogenous. Resource constraints. Two features of the model, identical managerial quality across cultiva- tors and costly monitoring of hired labor on the farm ensure that only own time and effort is used in production by each cultivator.23 Thus, the following budget constraint of a cultivator describes their feasible consumption allocations: p cif + cin ≤ p yif ≡ wi (λij ), (6) where p is the relative price of the farm good in terms of the nonfarm good. Cultivators and landlords take this price as given, though in a general equilibrium setting (described below), it is endogenous. Solving for contract share and effort. To characterize the fraction of output that remains with the tenant λ (“share”), focus on those contractual arrangements that, conditional on leasing 23 Hired hands were a small share of agricultural population. In Taiwan, before the land reform, hired farm labor was only about 6 percent of total agricultural population, and after the reform, it declined to below 5 percent of the total (Chen, 1961, Table 11; Ryoo, 1978, pp. 427–428). For South Korea, see table 1. 12 a plot, induce positive effort on owned land eii and on leased land eij . While contracts cannot stipulate effort, landlords can still extract surplus and effort from their tenants by taking the tenant’s incentive compatibility constraint (ICC) into account. This ICC is: j=0 j=0 j=0 π u(cf (p yiif (eii ), p), cn (p yiif (eii ), p) − v(eii ) j=0 j=0 j=0 + (1 − π) u(cf (p(yiif (eii ) + βtij ), p), cn (p(yiif (eii ) + βtij ), p) − v(eii ) j>0 j>0 j>0 f f ≤ u(cf (p(yiif (eii ) + λij yij (eij )), p), cn (p(yiif (eii ) + λij yij (eij )), p)) − v(eii + eij ), (7) where cf (wi , p) is the consumption function for cf (similarly for cn (wi , p)), which is feasible—as j=0 defined in equation (6), eii j>0 is the effort level on owned land when eij = 0, and eii is the effort level when eij > 0. The terms on the left-hand side of the inequality constitute the expected utility when the tenant shirks, and the term on the right-hand side is the utility when not-shirking. The above ICC, when satisfied with equality, describes a share–effort “surface” above which the tenant’s participation constraint is automatically satisfied. For a given λij ∈ (0, 1), the allocation of tenant i’s effort between the leased and owned land obtains from the solution to the following utility maximization problem: max cif ,cin ,eii ,eij u(cif , cin ) − v(eii + eij ) (8) s.t. p cif + cin ≤ wi (λij ), cif ≥ 0, cin ≥ 0, eii ≥ 0, eij ≥ 0, and eii + eij ≤ emax . Denote (ˆ eii (λij ), eˆij (λij )) as the optimal effort on owned and leased land, respectively, given the output share offered by the landlord. In extracting the maximum surplus from the tenant, the landlord incorporates the share delineated by the ICC (7) and the corresponding effort on owned and leased land consistent with the tenant’s utility maximization problem (8). This maximum surplus corresponds to the optimal effort on leased land induced by the contract share, and is found as a solution to the following problem: h i ˆ ij = arg max (1 − λij )y ` (ˆ λ e (λ )) ij ij ij (9) s.t. eˆij (λij ) > 0 satisfies the ICC (7). bij = λ of about 50%, which I take as an Notice that, historically tenants faced a uniform λ equilibrium outcome in the rest of the paper. Redistributive land reform. Consider a stylized (confiscatory) land reform, whereby the tenant becomes the owner of the land it leases, and the landlord looses all coercive powers and legal claims (π = 0 and λ = 0). In this case, the consumption bundle and effort level on each parcel of 13 land is determined through the following utility maximization problem by the owner-operator: max cif ,cin ,eii ,eij u(cif , cin ) − v(eii + eij ) (10) s.t. p cif + cin ≤ wi (λ), cif ≥ 0, cin ≥ 0, eii ≥ 0, eij ≥ 0, and eii + eij ≤ emax , with wi redefined accordingly. Allocation of effort across plots. One of the decisions made by the cultivators is the allocation of effort between owned and leased land. Then, conditional on leasing, an interior solution (ˆ eii , eˆij ) > 0 to problem (8) is characterized by the equality of marginal value product of effort between leased and own land, which is the familiar condition for production efficiency: ∂g(ˆ eij , tˆij ) ∂g(ˆ eii , tˆii ) =λ . ∂eii ∂eij (11) This condition shows that λ effectively distorts the effort allocation between owned and leased land: it not only reduces the effort on leased land, but also leads to an (inefficient) over-supply of effort on owned land. With an eye toward the quantitative analysis, let f f (e, t) = zf eαf t1−αf , g(f (e, t)) = f µ , (12) where 0 < αf < 1 determines the elasticity of composite input with respect to effort in farm production; and 0 < µ ≤ 1 determines the elasticity of output with respect to the composite effort and land input on plot t. Consequently, the production efficiency condition (11) can be stated analytically as 1 eii = λ µαf −1 eij tii tij µ(1−αf ) 1−µαf . (13) The ratio of effort on owned to effort on leased land is thus a function of both contract share λ and the ratio of owned land to leased land tii /tij . Even in the absence of sharecropping, a cultivator with multiple plots would allocate different levels of effort on plots tii and tij , as long as they are of difference size. Sharecropping distorts this allocation, and, for a given tii /tij , biases effort toward owned land, with smaller values of λ corresponding to higher degrees of distortion. Finally, for a given value of λ, higher values of tii /tij would correspond to higher effort levels on the owned land, but at a decreasing rate as long as µ < 1. Thus, the model incorporates two features of sharecropping when there are owner-tenant cultivators: (1) sharecropping distorts effort allocation by cultivators, and (2) owned land gives ownertenants considerable bargaining power over the share contract through their ability to withdraw 14 effort on leased land. (I present a discussion of the “optimal contract” in such settings below.) This implicit bargaining power becomes most visible in a comparison of pure and mixed tenancy. I thus pose briefly and demonstrate, using a self-contained numerical example, the partial-equilibrium implications of sharecropping for agricultural output and productivity under both pure and mixed tenancy. 3.1.1 Pure tenancy I envision pure tenancy as a case in which the tenant owns land (a “garden plot”) that is too small for commercial agriculture (tii = 0) and leases land from the landlord tij > 0.24 The garden plot yields γ > 0 units of cereals, and requires no costly effort (eii = 0). Thus, the effort allocation problem involving owned and leased land (problem (8) above) simplifies to a surplus extraction problem faced by the landlord involving only optimal share λ and effort on leased land eij . This situation can be thought of as the limiting case of mixed tenancy in which tenant’s bargaining power through withholding effort is severely curtailed due to a lack of outside alternatives. In particular, the tenant’s incentive compatibility constraint delivers a frontier in the (λ, eij ) space. Any λ outside the frontier would lead to shirking by the pure tenant, and would yield zero surplus to the landlord. Any λ inside the frontier would induce effort by the tenant. Given any effort-inducing λ, the pure tenant picks an optimal effort by solving a utility maximization problem. The landlord takes this optimal effort (in response to a given λ) into account in optimizing its surplus. The tangency of the landlord’s isoprofit curves to the pure tenant’s utility maximizing share and effort frontier determines the optimal surplus extracted by the landlord from the pure tenant. Such an outcome is demonstrated in Figure 1 using a numerical example. The upper envelope of the curve labelled as “ICC frontier” in Figure 1A satisfies the incentive compatibility constraint (7).25 The share–effort frontier that maximizes pure tenant’s utility within that frontier is shown by the dashed line. The tangency of the landlord’s isoprofit curves to this utility maximizing frontier corresponds to the share-effort pair that optimizes the surplus extracted by the landlord. The same figure shows how this surplus compares to the limiting case in which the landlord can also contract effort (denoted by “max. effort” and “max. share”). If the tenant were to become the owner, it would exert more effort on the plot formerly owned by the landlord. This efficiency loss due to tenancy is shown in figure 1B. 24 Such subsistence-sized garden plots are common in many land-tenure regimes, and are actively encouraged by large landlords (Barraclough, 1970). 25 The frontier and the participation constraint are consistent with the following two λ and eij combinations: (i) low effort and high share of output by the tenant, and when the tenant is close to subsistence and participates for survival; and (ii) high effort and high share of output when any additional effort at the margin is extremely costly in utility terms. 15 Figure 1: Effort and contract share in sharecropping: A numerical example µ Note: The numerical examples are based on the following functional forms and parameter values: g(f f ) = eα t1−α ; u = ln(cf − γf ); v = − ln(emax − e); = .5; probability of being caught shirking, π = .5; garden-plot productivity γ = .1; subsistence food requirement, γf = γ/5; share of labor in agricultural production, α = .7; elasticity of farm output with respect to combined effort and labor input, µ = .9; plot size owned land of owner-tenant, i tii = .5; plot size of land leased from landlord j by tenant i, tij = 1; productivity of leased plot when eij = 0, β = .10; productivity of leased plot when eij > 0, β ∗ = .01; fixed rent when tenant shirks and caught, τ = 0; maximum allowable effort level by the tenant, emax = 1. 3.1.2 Owner tenancy In the case of owner-tenancy, plots owned and leased by the tenant compete for the scarce resource—cultivator’s effort. Owner-tenants allocate their effort according to the relative return on each plot. If the size of owned land is sufficiently large, the tenant would have a better bargaining power in settling the terms of the share contract. Of course, depending on the size of owned plots, mixed tenancy covers a broad spectrum of land tenure systems ranging from owner-operators to pure tenants. Figure 1C demonstrates a tenancy contract for an owner-tenant and effort that is comparable to the pure tenancy example considered above. In this example, the owner-tenant spends about 14% of maximum available effort on leased land, and the remaining 41% on own land, for a total 16 of 55%. If, as a result of redistribute land reform, the ownership of the land leased by the ownertenant were transferred from the landlord to the tenant, the effort would increase to about 68% of maximum allowable effort. So, in this numerical example, land redistribution increases agricultural output and efficiency of land use. The numerical examples provide some intuition about the consequences of land redistribution to tenants. However, this analysis leaves many imported mechanisms out: land redistribution and the subsequent increase in supply of farm goods would in general lead to a change in relative prices, the number of cultivators, and nonfarm employment. In the next two sections, I introduce the remaining pieces of the general equilibrium model. 3.2 The nonfarm sector The nonfarm sector of this economy has workers, capitalists, and a representative firm, which is solely owned by the capitalists. Preferences. Capitalists save a constant fraction 0 < θ < 1 of their gross income. They spend their remaining income on luxury goods from abroad: U (c∗ ).26 Workers in the nonfarm sector supply one unit of indivisible labor. Nonfarm labor is equivalent to effort intensity eh on farms at a utility cost of v(eh ) with 0 ≤ eh . The component of the workers’ instantaneous utility function defined over cf and cn , u(chf , chn ) is identical to that of farmers. Specifically, h iν/(ν−1) (ν−1)/ν 1/ν u(cf , cn ) = η 1/ν c(ν−1)/ν + (1 − η) (c − γ ) , f f n (14) v(e) = − ln(emax − e). (15) In equation (14), γf ≥ 0 represents the “subsistence” level of food consumption, η is the weight on nonfarm goods, and ν > 0 is the elasticity of substitution between consumption farm goods (net of subsistence) and nonfarm goods. Non-homotheticity allows differential demand elasticity of income between farm and nonfarm goods. When γf > 0, the income elasticity of demand for food is less than one. When ν < 1, food and non-food are gross complements, and when ν > 1, they are gross substitutes. In equation (15), emax > 0 is the maximum feasible effort level per agent. Production. The nonfarm sector permits a representative firm, whose output is determined by a constant returns to scale production function zn F n (Kn , Ln ) = zn Kn1−αn Lαnn , 26 (16) The latter simplification is done to maintain symmetry between absentee landlords and capitalists, but is not essential. It is easy to maintain tractability as long as capitalists’ commodity demands exhibit linear Engel curves. 17 where 0 < αn < 1 is the elasticity of output with respect to labor in nonfarm production; zn is nonfarm TFP; Kn is the capital stock, and Ln is labor services. Factor payments. Workers earn a wage rate which is the value of marginal product of their labour w = w(k) = αn zn k 1−αn , where k = Kn /Ln (recall that nonfarm sector produces the numeraire good). Similarly, capitalists earn the rental rate of capital which is the value of marginal product of capital r = r(k) = (1 − αn )zn k −αn . Aggregate capital stock. Initial capital stock is given and denoted by K0 > 0. Changes in the capital stock between two consecutive time periods depends on gross investment θrK minus depreciation; K 0 = (1 − δ)K + θrK, where 0 < δ < 1 is the depreciation rate. Consumption allocations by workers. Given effort eh , workers maximize utility to determine their optimal allocations of expenditures across food and non-food consumption goods. That is, in each period, each worker h solves max u(chf , chn ) − v(eh ) h ch f ,cn (17) s.t. p chf + chn ≤ w, chf ≥ 0, chn ≥ 0. 3.3 General equilibrium To integrate the farm and nonfarm sectors of this economy, I use two additional conditions that describe the allocation of resources: (1) a no arbitrage condition for labor allocation across sectors so that at the margin there is no economic incentive for labor to switch between sectors; and (2) a condition that describes changes in land holdings. Allocation of labor across sectors. Tenants and workers are perfectly mobile across sectors. This implies that each member of the labor force is indifferent (in utility terms) between working on a farm or in a factory: u cf (wi , p), cn (wi , p) − v(eii + eij ) = u cf (w, p), cn (w, p) − v(eh ). (18) Here effort equivalents of labor supply could vary between the farm and nonfarm sectors, so that eh is not necessarily equal to eii + eij in equilibrium. This is a flexible formulation to capture an economically significant farm–nonfarm wage gap, when one exits.27 In such cases, I specify v(eh ) = v(eii + eij + κ), where κ is the effort-equivalent urban penalty (κ > 0) or bonus (κ < 0). 27 Any farm–nonfarm income gap, either positive or negative, would thus be due to compensating utility differences in working on a farm versus in a factory. Many factors like psychic costs, including moving away from a familiar 18 Allocation of land across tenants. I specialize the analysis so that T i and T j are uniform across tenants and landlords: tii and tij are identical for i = 1, 2, . . . , I. (19) Assumption (19) redistributes the plot of land vacated by a former cultivator equally among those who remain in the farm sector. Land formerly leased by a tenant from a landlord is also equally leased among the remaining cultivators. I think of this as capturing the tendency for outmigrants from the farm sector to transfer their claims on land to non-migrating family members in return for the option value of return migration. Overall, then, each occupational class consists of identical agents.28 Representativeness of agents focuses the analysis on the implications of distribution of land between cultivator farmers and absentee landlords. Sequential equilibrium. A consumption plan of a cultivator i = 1, 2, . . . , It is a sequence of consumption vectors cit for time subscript t = 0, 1, 2, . . . , ∞. A consumption plan of a worker is defined similarly. A sequential equilibrium in this economy is an initial capital stock K0 , a sequence of consumption n o i h h ˆ ˆ and effort vectors for cultivators and workers cˆt , cˆt , eˆii,t , eˆij,t , eˆ , sectoral employment It , Ht , n o n o ˆ t , capital stocks K ˆ t+1 , owned and leased land distributions tˆii,t , tˆij,t , contract shares λ factor payments {w ˆt , rˆt }, and prices {ˆ pt }, such that, in each period t = 0, 1, 2, . . ., ˆt; 1. for each cultivator i = 1, 2, . . . , Iˆt , (ˆ cit , eˆit ) solves (8) given tˆiit , tˆijt , pˆt , and λ ˆ t solves (9); 2. for each landlord j = 1, 2, . . . , J, λ ˆ t , cˆh solves (17) given pˆt and w 3. for each worker h = 1, 2, . . . , H ˆt ; t 4. investment in physical capital is equal to saving by capitalists: ˆ t+1 − K ˆ t (1 − δ) = θ rˆt K ˆ t, K (20) 5. factors of production in nonfarm production are paid their value marginal products, so that !1−αn ˆt K w ˆt = αn znt , (21) ˆt H !−αn ˆt K rˆt = (1 − α)znt ; (22) ˆt H rural setting to a city with impersonal relations, urban congestion and pollution, a lack of social diversity in rural areas (“bright city lights”), and lack of control over one’s own effort in a factory, are often suggested as potential sources of these income gaps, but are kept in the background. 28 This is equivalent to four occupational classes each permitting a representative member. This is routinely assumed in the literature, even when wealth is unequally distributed within an occupation (e.g., Banerjee and Newman, 1993). 19 6. effort by workers eˆh satisfies (18); 7. the distribution of cultivated plots across cultivators satisfies (19); ˆ t ≤ Lt , 8. the sum of employment in each sector cannot exceed the aggregate labor supply, Iˆt + H P P P and the demand for land cannot exceed the supply of land, i tˆii + i j tˆij = T ; 9. market clearing conditions for food and non-food goods hold: Iˆt X cˆif t i=1 Iˆt X cˆint + i=1 ˆt H X + ˆt H X h=1 cˆhft ≤ Iˆt X yi,t , (23) i=1 ˆ t, K ˆ t ) − rˆt K ˆ t; cˆhnt ≤ znt F n (H (24) h=1 10. domestic savings equal domestic investment: ˆ t+1 − (1 − δ)K ˆ t ≤ θˆ ˆ t; K rt K (25) 11. landlords and capitalists spend their income on the foreign good (balance on international trade): J X j=1 ` pˆt yij,t = qt J X ˆ t = qt (Nt − Lt − J)ˆ cˆj∗ rt K c∗t . t , and (1 − θ)ˆ (26) j=1 Finally, I represent a confiscatory redistributive land reform by simply setting λ = 1 in the model economy, giving a post-reform economy consisting of land-owning cultivators with multiple plots. 3.4 Discussion of the assumptions I modelled rents as sharecropping contracts. This was the predominant form of contract on paddy land in South Korea (Ban et al., 1980, p. 292). In Japan and Taiwan, while formal sharecropping contracts were a small fraction of all tenancy rental contracts, realized rents amounted to sharecropping. Ryoo (1978, pp. 108–110) discusses the pre-reform rent contracts and notes that even rent-in-kind and rent-in-cash contracts led to final payments that were adjusted based on realized yields. Koo (1968, p. 31) mentions “ironclad” clauses (fixed rents) in rent contracts in pre-reform Taiwan, but these simply set a minimum rent payments, with the rest determined by sharecropping, which here are captured by the fixed rent parameter τ .29 29 As noted by, among others, Banerjee et al. (2002, pp. 247–248), a combination of fixed rent and share contract would balance the trade-off landlords typically face: either to provide incentives for effort or to extract surplus from the tenant. However, simple share contracts have been widespread. In a fixed-rent contract, the landlord would not receive additional payment in bumper crop years, so it would not yield the optimal surplus for the landlord. Besides, a fixed-rent requires wealth that can be transferred to the landlord when output falls short of the rent. When tenants are wealth poor and crop failure is highly possible, fixed-rent contracts would not be observed. 20 The land tenure systems in pre-land reform Japan, S. Korea, and Taiwan were characterized by absentee landlords. Thus, in the model, landlords are detached from farming, have no particular farming skills, and face an effort monitoring problem. Eswaran and Kotwal (1985), by contrast, model a land tenure system with resident landlords, who are the sole suppliers of farm management skills, and peasants, who are the sole suppliers of farm labor. In the model, land leased by tenant i from landlord j is given. Although not explicitly modelled as landlord decision, this can be rationalized as an equilibrium outcome when own-land is (roughly) equally distributed across tenant cultivators, and there are decreasing returns to scale (due to fixed managerial input). The reason is that there is no direct cost to each landlord in leasing land to multiple tenants, and small cultivators have a cost advantage over their larger counterparts, because of decreasing returns to scale. Moreover, as long as there are monitoring costs, there would be no hired hands, even if one allowed for a market for hired work-time. Given that each cultivator has roughly similar returns to own effort, each would find hired work-time prohibitively costly. In fact, as mentioned above, in none of the three cases, rural proletariat represented a significant social class, both before and after the reform. Condition (19) is motivated by the observations made by many scholars on the pre-war agriculture of these countries (e.g., Honma and Hayami, 2009), as well as their relatively low post-war Gini coefficients for land holdings. It also simplifies the analysis on two fronts. First, there is no need to keep track of a changing land distribution among cultivators each time migration takes place from farm to nonfarm.30 Second, it keeps the issues surrounding the markets for farmland in the background. Complex zoning regulations make it difficult to model the market for farmland, and doing so in a satisfactory fashion would take this paper too far afield. The pre-reform land tenure system modelled here is effectively a one-tenant and one-landlord setup. This is standard in the literature (e.g., Eswaran and Kotwal, 1985). However, if absentee landlords have an information set that includes the output of their other tenants, and the tenants of other landlords, they may use such information to infer whether their individual tenants are shirking, and if so, to evict them. And, eviction may have dynamic costs to tenants. In the current set-up, all such calculus would be subsumed in the probability of being caught. The model abstains from investment in land quality. For instance, if irrigation, drainage, and mulching can improve the quality of land but costs effort by the tenant, then there would be underinvestment on leased land when the landlord is a claimant on effort. Naturally, in such cases, the impact of land reform on agricultural productivity would be even higher, and the magnitudes I report below would be conservative.31 30 Only at the later stages of development, rural family size tends to shrink or migration of an entire family becomes an option. Boyer and Ahn (1991) present some evidence suggesting that, in South Korea, within-family land transfers were common until the 1980s. 31 Ban et al. (1980, pp. 291–292) mention that, in the 1930s Korea, landlords were responsible for investment that 21 Finally, although part of the domestic output is used to pay for the imported luxury good consumed by capitalists and land owners, the relative price of farm and nonfarm goods is endogenously determined. This framework is suitable for the pre- and post-land reform Japan, S. Korea, and Taiwan, as this period predates their export booms. An attempt to model the external demand for their nonfarm goods would take the analysis (and the period under study) too far afield. 4 Quantitative analysis In this section, I first calibrate and solve for equilibrium allocations that are broadly consistent with the pre-reform characteristics of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. I rely on available estimates on a number of variables (called “calibration targets”) that, in my judgement, best summarize their basic economic structure in the pre-reform era. The targets include the share of employment in the nonfarm sector, tenant share of farm output λ; the ratio of leased to owned land by cultivators, tij /tii ; the rate of return to capital, r; the share of consumption expenditures on food; and the gross saving rate. While there were many similarities in their land tenure systems, these economies also had considerable differences in terms of their level of economic development. Table 2 shows the range of estimates across countries available for these targeted variables (see Appendix A for sources). For instance, the estimates of pre-reform share of employment in the nonfarm sector ranges from a high of 65 percent in Japan to 20 percent in South Korea—a reflection of their differences in the level of economic development. At the same time, there are different estimates of these parameters for individual countries: the share of employment in the nonfarm sector in pre-reform Taiwan ranges from 37 percent to 45 percent, depending on the source, in part because of slight differences in the time periods that these estimates refer to. Given these differences in the pre-reform conditions across countries, together with the uncertainties surrounding the exact value of some of the parameters, I start with a set of baseline parameter values and then present an extensive sensitivity analysis. In all cases, I numerically solve for the equilibrium of the model, both before and after a redistributive land reform. With the preand post-reform solution in hand, I measure the impact of such a reform on effort allocation by cultivators, sectoral allocation of labor, and capital accumulation in the model. I postpone a more detailed examination of individual country data to Section 5, and here focus on the main economic mechanisms that are responsible for the impact of redistributive land reform on farm productivity and labor reallocation from farm to nonfarm. required credit or more than 5 days of labor, and, in many cases, provided seed, commercial fertilizer and farm implements. 22 Table 2: Pre-reform characteristics by country Description Mnemonic Japan South Korea Taiwan Share of employment in nonfarm Tenant share of farm output Leased-to-owned land ratio Farm–nonfarm income ratio Gross rate of return to capital, % Share of expenditures on food, % Gross saving rate, % ln λ tij /tii wi /w r .65 [.51] .50 1.13 0.70 [.40] 13 60 14 .20 [.23] .40 [.50] 1.77 1.00 13 ... 10.0 [3.2] .45 [.37] .40 [.50] 0.64 ... 13 ... 10.5 [5.1] Notes: This table shows the range of estimates available from the literature. Alternative estimates for individual countries, if available, are shown in brackets. See Appendix A for sources. . . . indicates estimates are not available. 4.1 Baseline calibration and solution Numerical solution of the equilibrium allocations uses a number of exogenously set preference and production function parameters. Table 3 panel A presents the parameter values used in the baseline specification, panel B shows the pre-reform calibration targets, which help pin down the remaining parameters in the model (panel C). (The sources for baseline parameters are contained in Appendix A.) I then numerically solve for the pre-reform equilibrium of the model, and report the equilibrium values of effort on owned and leased land, the relative price, nonfarm TFP, capital stock, farm and nonfarm output, income earned by cultivators, wage income, and capital income. (The details of the numerical solution algorithm are contained in Appendix S.1.) Table 3 panel D reports the numerical solution of the baseline model. In the pre-reform equilibrium, cultivators spend roughly five times more effort on their owned plot relative to the leased plot despite leased plot size being slightly larger than the owned plot size (by a factor of 1.13). In other dimensions, the model matches the gross saving rate of 10 percent by attributing a large saving rate (θ = 0.84) to capitalists, and implies a nonfarm TFP that exceeds farm TFP by a factor of 2.11. In addition, the results indicate that physical capital to income ratio in the nonfarm sector is about 2.3. Table 3 panel D also shows the post-reform equilibrium outcomes using a simple decomposition. The column labelled as “K variable” presents the equilibrium outcome, in the aftermath of reallocation of effort across plots, reallocation of labor across sectors, and the endogenous change in total savings by capitalists induced by the reform. The column labelled as “K fixed” by contrast keeps the capital stock at its pre-reform level. A comparison of pre- and post-reform equilibrium outcomes in this model economy shows that the land reform leads to a substantial change in the sectoral composition of employment: the share of nonfarm employment increases from 35 percent in the pre-reform equilibrium to about 46 23 Table 3: Baseline parameter values and equilibrium of the calibrated model Description Mnemonic Value A. Exogenously set parameters Elasticity of substitution in consumption Weight of non-food consumption Subsistence food requirement Weight of effort in farm production Weight of labor in nonfarm production Returns to scale in farm production Farm TFP (excluding effort) Plot size, leased (normalized) Maximum effort level ν η γf αf αn µ zf tij emax 0.1 0.80 0.30 0.654 0.70 0.90 1.00 1.00 1 ln λ tij /tii wi /w r .35 .50 1.13 1.0 13 60 10 zn θ eh 2.11 0.84 0.63 B. Calibration targets Share of employment in nonfarm Tenant share of farm output Leased-to-owned land ratio Farm–nonfarm income ratio Gross rate of return to capital, % Share of expenditures on food, % Gross saving rate, % C. Calibrated parameters Nonfarm TFP Saving rate by capitalists Total effort, workers D. Equilibrium outcomes Pre-reform Post-reform K fixed Share of employment in nonfarm Effort on owned land (% total) Effort on leased land (% total) Relative price farm/nonfarm Share of expenditures on food, % Gross saving rate, % Gross rate of return to capital, % Nonfarm capital-output ratio ln eii eij p K variable 0.350 0.460 0.459 0.523 (83%) 0.301 (48%) 0.301 (48%) 0.107 (17%) 0.330 (52%) 0.330 (52%) 3.607 2.486 2.506 57.2 52.3 52.5 10.0 13.9 13.8 13.0 15.7 15.5 2.31 1.91 1.94 r Notes: A. This panel reports the baseline parameter values used in the numerical solution of the model. See Appendix A for details and sources. B. This panel reports the pre-reform calibration targets used in the numerical solution of the model to pin down the remaining (calibrated) parameters of the model. See Appendix A for details and sources, as well as those parameter values needed to verify the incentive compatibility constraints. C. This panel reports the parameters implied by the baseline calibration of the model and that match the calibration targets. D. This panel reports the equilibrium solution of the baseline model before and after a land redistribution. In the post-reform calibration λ is set equal to one. The column “K fixed” shows the equilibrium outcomes when the capital stock remains at its pre-reform level. The column “K variable” shows the equilibrium outcomes after taking into consideration additional savings by capitalists induced by the reform. 24 percent after redistribution. It is interesting to note that much of this is driven by a “push” factor out of agriculture: the reallocation of effort across owned and formerly leased plots, the subsequent increase in the farm goods that become available for market sale, and the declining relative price of farm goods all lead to a reallocation of labor from farm to nonfarm. The reason is that farm goods have a low income elasticity of demand (γf > 0). So, farm prices fall disproportionately more than the increase in farm output, which tends to reduce the cultivators’ income. Cultivators respond to this tendency by switching to factory work, in the absence of which the relative price of farm goods would have fallen even further. The model also has a “pull” factor: as incomes rise, for a given saving rate, total savings and hence aggregate capital increase. This increases the marginal value product of workers, and some cultivators. Yet, a comparison of the results with fixed and variable capital stock shows that, at the margin, the contribution of this channel to farm outmigration is economically small. Hence, in the model, the results are overwhelmingly driven by the reallocation of effort across plots and reallocation of labor across sectors: whereas pre-reform cultivators spend 83 percent of their total effort on their owned plots, post-reform cultivators spend only 48 percent of it. Redistribution of ownership rights thus can have an economically significant effect on the efficient allocation of resources. The consequences of a land reform for several other aggregate variables are also striking. Reforms lead to a reduction in the share of expenditures on food (about 5 percentage points): while the relative price of farm goods declines, the share of expenditures on food decreases because farm goods have a low income elasticity of demand. The rate of return to capital rises, because of a relatively small endogenous accumulation of capital (at the margin) and large farm outmigration, which keeps the wage rate in check. These channels also account for the decline in nonfarm capital-to-output ratio. This is due to the fact that while the gross saving rate rises, the increase in capital income is proportionately less than the increase in aggregate income. Despite these relatively large resource reallocations across plots and between sectors, according to the model, the aggregate implications of land redistribution are not necessarily large (Table 4). Relative to the pre-reform outcomes, aggregate income increases by 5.5 percent, and land productivity declines by about 5 percent. The biggest response is in labor productivity in the farm sector, which increases by 14 percent. The change in land productivity is due to two opposing effects. First, there is a decrease in farm employment following farm outmigration, which reduces yield per land. There is also an increase in the efficiency of effort allocation across plots, which increases yield per land. In the baseline calibration, the first effect dominates the second effect and, as a result, land productivity in the post-reform equilibrium is lower than that of pre-reform equilibrium. A similar reasoning explains the rising labor productivity in the farm sector following land 25 Table 4: Impact of land redistribution on aggregate variables, change relative to pre-reform Model Baseline Tenant share of output, λ = 0.4 Leased-to-owned land ratio tij /tii = 1.77 (high) tij /tii = 0.64 (low) Share of employment in nonfarm pre-reform ln = 0.20 (low) pre-reform ln = 0.65 (high) Elasticity of substitution, ν = 0.5 Returns to scale, µ = 0.8 Pre-reform farm–nonfarm wage ratio = .7 (variable effort) Compensation of landlords Income per capita Labor productivity (yield/employment) Land productivity (yield/land) Share of employment in nonfarm 5.4 7.8 13.9 19.6 − 5.2 − 3.6 11 13 5.6 4.7 17.4 10.3 − 9.0 − 3.3 15 12 6.5 3.0 5.2 4.2 10.9 19.6 11.2 11.6 0.2 −14.2 − 0.3 − 6.9 8 10 7 11 18.0 5.3 42.5 11.8 − 0.7 − 1.3 19 8 Notes: This table shows the implications of the numerical solution of the model for aggregate income and farm productivity. It compares the model-based change in an aggregate variable after a redistributive land reform relative to its pre-reform value. All variables are in percent, expect the share of employment in nonfarm, which is in percentage points. See Table 3 for the baseline parameters and the text for a description of the models. Labels “low” or “high” indicate magnitudes relative to the baseline values. Returns to scale is the elasticity of farm output with respect to the composite effort and land inputs. 26 redistribution. As different from the sources of land productivity, in this case, a decrease in farm employment following land redistribution increases average yield per cultivator, bolstering the efficiency gains due to reallocation of effort across plots. The combined effect of these two channels increases labor productivity in the farm sector, and, in the baseline model, this effect is substantial. 4.2 Mechanisms In this section, I consider the influence of several mechanisms inherent in the model on agricultural productivity and labor reallocation across sectors. These include pre-reform land inequality and income, income elasticity of demand for farm products, compensation of landlords in the aftermath of the reform, and variable effort by cultivators. Pre-reform land tenure. The ultimate impact of land redistribution depends on a number of initial conditions prevailing before the reforms. The extent of sharecropping arrangements, as well as their specifics, while exhibiting many common elements, have not been uniform across countries. The main differences can be characterized by two concrete dimensions of the land tenure system: the tenant share of output λ and share of land leased from landlords tij /tii . For instance, the extent of sharecropping depends on the distribution of land across cultivators and landlords, and the pre-reform tij /tii ratio, which is an indicator of land distribution, was significantly higher in South Korea than in Taiwan (Table 2). To see the sensitivity of the results to changes in these two parameters that characterize the pre-reform land tenure conditions, I consider parameter ranges that were actually observed in the pre-reform Japan, S. Korea, and Taiwan. Consider, first, the stand-alone influence of share of output received by a tenant prior to the land redistribution on post-reform outcomes. In Table 4, I consider a lower share (λ = 0.4) relative to the baseline (λ = 0.5). Not surprisingly, relative to the baseline, a confiscatory land redistribution increases income per capita, and labor productivity even more: with lower λ, misallocation of effort across owned and leased land is higher in the model, and as a result, the land reform has a considerably larger impact on income and labor productivity in agriculture (about 40 percent increase in the case of labor productivity relative to the baseline). The productivity of land still declines after the reform, but this decline is smaller in magnitude compared to the baseline. In terms of the ratio of the leased-to-owned land, I consider two alternative parameter values: a “high” (tji /tii = 1.77) and a “low” (tji /tii = 0.64) ratio, with the baseline value (tji /tii = 1.13) straddling the two. As one moves from the low toward the high leased-to-owned land ratios, there is a monotonic increase in the change in income capita and labor productivity in agriculture, and a monotonic decrease in the change in land productivity. Overall, according to the model, the 27 worse the initial distribution of land, the higher the impact of a land reform on income per capita. However, the responses are not linear—post-reform income per capita increases at a decreasing rate as the initial land distribution worsens.32 Finally, for the range of parameter values considered, the results suggest that, when the initial land tenure conditions are less favourable to tenants, the economy tends to exhibit a faster reallocation of labor out of agriculture. In particular, compared to the baseline results, in the cases of both low λ and high tji /tii , the increase in the share of employment in nonfarm is relatively higher. Note, however, that in the case of low tji /tii the pace of post-reform labor reallocation is also slightly higher than that of the baseline, suggesting that the pace of structural change is only a partial indicator of the impact of land reform on income. Pre-reform income. Historically, there has been a close association between income per capita and the share of employment in nonfarm, ln . In the baseline calibration, this share is 35 percent; a low but commonly observed value in historical data from currently industrialized countries and contemporary developing countries. Here, I check the sensitivity of the results to a lower level of initial nonfarm share of employment ln = .20, as well as a higher level ln = .65. There are several striking results that emerge from the solution of the model with different initial income levels (Table 4). First, while the response of aggregate income per capita to a land reform is considerably larger in the case of low initial ln relative to both the baseline and high ln cases, the response of labor productivity is considerably smaller. Note that in all the cases considered, the level of agricultural TFP that is not accounted for by effort is fixed. Thus, in an economy with relatively lower nonfarm productivity, nonfarm employs relatively more workers yielding high ln . This results in a relatively more severe misallocation of labor within agriculture. The reason is that in order to afford the relatively more expensive nonfarm goods, at the margin, tenant farmers exert (inefficiently) more effort on owned land. Thus, for a given farm productivity, as productivity in the nonfarm sector increases, ln declines, the relative price of nonfarm goods falls, and the severity of inefficient allocation of labor diminishes. Consequently, in those cases where the nonfarm sector is initially less productive, a land reform has a proportionately larger impact on labor productivity in agriculture. This allocation of effort under alternative nonfarm productivity scenarios has ramifications for land productivity as well. In the case of initially low ln , land reform increases land productivity (although marginally), whereas in the case of high ln , it reduces land productivity. Note that the interaction between the relative productivity of the nonfarm sector and the land reform is strongly 32 In the case of low tij /tii (a 65 percent increase in the pre-reform tij /tii ratio relative to the baseline), post-reform land productivity increases by about 35 percent relative to the baseline case. By contrast, in the case of high tij /tii (a 56 percent increase in the pre-reform tij /tii ratio), post-reform land productivity increases by 25 percent relative to the baseline case. 28 intermediated through the gross complementarity between farm and nonfarm goods. If, for some reason, the two goods were substitutes, the relative price effect described above would have led to opposite resource flows, and would reverse the direction of the results. In other words, much of the reasoning behind this result emanates from the fact that a relatively faster productivity growth in the nonfarm sector reduces nonfarm employment, and here this is uniquely a function of the gross complementarity between the two goods. Demand elasticity and technology. As the above discussion suggests, gross complementarity and effort allocation between the leased and owned land are critical for the quantitative and qualitative results. Therefore, I examine the sensitivity of the results to alternative parameters that have immediate bearings on these two issues. In the model, ν determines the degree of complementarity and µ returns to the combined inputs of land and effort, and both have an influence on the allocation of effort across different plots (equation 11). In the baseline, consistent with the empirical estimates and economic intuition, I considered a relatively low elasticity of substitution between food and nonfood consumption categories (ν = 0.1). Increasing this elasticity to ν = 0.5 makes no substantial difference to the main findings, and economically most significant impact of this parameter appears to be on the reallocation of labor across sectors (Table 4). With a lower degree of complementarity, the land reform releases less labor from agriculture. The reason is that, as farm output increases, the relative price of the farm good declines. When ν is relatively high, this leads to a relatively smaller increase in the demand for nonfarm goods, and thus a relatively smaller degree of structural change. As for the elasticity parameter µ, in the baseline I set it at 0.90, and reducing it to µ = 0.80 appears to make little qualitative difference for the results. The main quantitative point to emphasize is the response of income per capita. In this case, as the elasticity of farm output with respect to effort decreases, the aggregate benefits of a land reform, in terms of income per capita, also decrease in relative terms. Variable effort by cultivators. One feature of the above analysis is that redistributive land reform does not affect the total effort exerted by each cultivator. As a result, practically all the productivity and income benefits associated with a land reform arise from efficiency enhancing reallocation of resources. The model, however, has considerable flexibility in accounting for situations in which total effort by each cultivator also changes after a redistributive land reform. This can be captured in the model when the pre-reform equilibrium exhibits farm–nonfarm wage gaps, say due to an internal passport system which restricts labor mobility or psychic relocation costs, and a redistributive land reform may also eliminate such barriers to mobility. To see this, suppose that the wage rate in the nonfarm sector was initially higher relative to 29 that of in the farm sector, because of restrictions on intersectoral labor mobility. I model this as an equivalent non-pecuniary “penalty” of moving from farm to nonfarm. In the pre-reform solution this can be treated, from the cultivators’ perspective, as corresponding to an additional effort associated with nonfarm work. After the reform, once the mobility costs are removed, cultivators re-optimize, exert additional effort up to the point that this shadow price (or the marginal value) of effort is equalized across sectors, so that farm and nonfarm wages equalize. Table 4 shows the impact of such variable effort when initial farm–nonfarm wage ratio is 0.70. In this case effort by cultivators increases by 33 percent, and not surprisingly, this further stimulates farm outmigration—the share of nonfarm employment rises by 19 percentage points; from an initial 35 percent of employment to about 55 percent. The aggregate impact of the combination of variable effort and within and across sector reallocation of labor on productivity in the farm sector is dramatic, corresponding to a 42 percent increase in labor productivity following a land redistribution. Nevertheless, variable effort and reallocation of this additional effort have a negligible impact (a small decline) on land productivity. Compensation of landlords. The results so far are based on a confiscatory land redistribution in which absentee landlords receive no compensation in return. While land reform was highly advantageous for the cultivators, former landlords were nevertheless compensated to some degree (see Section 2). To explore the impact of such compensation on economic outcomes, I use a fixed (annual) transfer from cultivators to former landlords equivalent to 25 percent of pre-reform yield on formerly leased plot—a number that is consistent with the actual compensation schedules. Table 4, last column, shows the results for this case. The compensation scheme considered here is effectively a transfer to former landlords, and does not distort incentives faced by farmers. Relative to the baseline in which land reform is confiscatory, compensation of landlords reduces the agricultural output (surplus) available for workers in the nonfarm sector. This increases the relative price of farm goods, and translates into slower reallocation of labor out of agriculture, a smaller increase in labor productivity in the farm sector, and a more moderate decline in land productivity. Since the levies on farmers do not distort allocation of effort across plots, compensation of landlords has a relatively small quantitative effect on income per capita. 5 Some comparative evidence I now turn to a more detailed examination of individual country data, and ask whether the mechanisms identified by the model could also account for the observed responses of Japan, S. Korea, and Taiwan to their redistributive land reforms. Table 5 reports the numerical solution results that match the individual country characteristics in the pre-reform period as reported in Table 2. 30 Consistent with the discussion above, according to the model, land redistribution increases labor productivity significantly in each of the three countries. By contrast, according to the model, land redistribution has a mixed effect on land productivity: it decreases substantially in Japan, only mildly in Taiwan, and it increases in South Korea. In all the cases, land reform triggers substantial structural change, with about 10 percent of the labor force reallocating from farm to the nonfarm sectors. I map the model’s quantitative predictions into qualitative statements in Table 6, which also indicates the two initial conditions that vary considerably across the three countries: leased-toowned land ratio (tij /tii ) as an indicator of land inequality, and share of employment in nonfarm (ln ) as an indicator of income per person. According to these indicators, pre-reform S. Korea exhibits relatively high inequality and low income, and Taiwan exhibits low inequality and low income, whereas pre-reform Japan is characterized by medium inequality and high income.33 The model predictions are ranked according to the expected magnitude of the response of a particular outcome variable to a land reform. I consider three outcome variables: yield per farm worker, yield per hectare of land, and the share of employment in the nonfarm sector. In each of these cases, I report the ranking of each country in terms of their model-based responses to a confiscatory land reform. I use qualitative rankings because the model abstracts from any land-saving technological progress that is known to have increased land productivity in these countries considerably over this period (Hayami and Ruttan, 1971; Johnston and Kilby, 1975). Unfortunately, there are limited empirical estimates of the impact of land redistribution on farm productivity in these countries that can be directly compared with the model-based estimates presented in Table 5. There is scant data on pre-reform agricultural output and inputs (Appendix A.3). Ryoo (1978, p. 431) cites the Taiwanese Provincial Food Bureau for an estimate of about a 40 percent increase in paddy rice per hectare after the combined implementation of land-rent reduction and land-transfer programs, with about 88 percent of this increase occurring after the land-rent reduction program.34 In the case of S. Korea, Jeon and Kim (2000) find that tenancy rate had a negative impact on agricultural output—although they do not quantify the impact of agricultural land reform on land or labor productivity. However, using their published data, it is possible to infer that there was about a 40 percent increase in land productivity from the 1955/59 period relative to the 1940/44 period. In Japan, the growth of rice yield over the same period was about 13%. S. Korea has data on labor input in rice production, which points to about 2% increase in 33 In the available data, the mapping from the share of employment in nonfarm to income per capita is not perfect: while Taiwan had a higher share of employment in nonfarm, in 1955 its per capita income was slightly lower than that of S. Korea (Honma and Hayami, 2009, Table 2.1). Given the margins of error involved in these calculations, it might be best to view S. Korea and Taiwan as similar in terms of their market-based income per capita. 34 Unfortunately, there is no information about the methodology underlying these estimates. 31 Table 5: Solution of the model for Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan, change relative to pre-reform Model Income per capita Labor productivity (yield/employment) Land productivity (yield/land) Share of employment in nonfarm 4.9 10.4 5.6 20.4 19.6 15.9 −14.4 1.1 − 3.5 10 12 9 Japan S. Korea Taiwan Notes: This table shows the implications of the numerical solution of the model for income and productivity using the target parameters shown in Table 2 for individual countries. For S. Korea and Taiwan there are no pre-reform estimates of share of expenditures on food, and the solution uses 0.6 (based on available estimates for Japan). For Taiwan, there is no estimate of farm–nonfarm income ratio, and the solution uses 1. For the remaining parameters, each model uses the baseline parameters in Table 3. The table reports the model-based change in an aggregate variable after a redistributive land reform relative to its pre-reform value. All variables are in percent, expect the share of employment in nonfarm, which is in percentage points. Table 6: Relative impact of land redistribution on the farm sector productivity Model predictions for Country Initial conditions Relative outcomes Yield per Yield Structural Yield per Yield Structural farm worker per hectare change farm worker per hectare change Japan Medium inequality; high income high low medium ... low medium S. Korea High inequality; low income high high high “low” high high Taiwan Low inequality; low income low medium low ... high low Notes: Initial conditions are based on the comparison of the following variables in Table 3: leased-to-owned land ratio as an indicator of land inequality, and share of employment in nonfarm as an indicator of income. Yield is based on rice output. Structural change is measured by the increase in the share of employment in nonfarm. Model predictions are based on the quantitative results reported in Table 4. See Appendix A.3 for the data underlying “relative outcomes.” . . . indicates estimates surrounding the reform period are not available. 32 output per employment from 1940s to 1950s.35 Since there are no comparable estimates for Japan and Taiwan, it is impossible to judge how “low” these estimates actually are. Several sources report data on the share of employment in agriculture. According to this indicator, in the immediate aftermath of their respective land reforms, S. Korea had the highest rate of structural change, followed by Japan, and then Taiwan. Overall, then, although the available data are sketchy and incomplete, the evidence points to heterogeneous responses to land reform by the three countries. These actual responses are also ranked and summarized in Table 6. A comparison of the model predictions and the actual outcomes reveals that the observed heterogeneity in responses are broadly consistent with the predictions of the model. This suggests that the mechanisms identified by the model could account for the diverse responses observed in these countries. 6 Conclusion I developed a two-sector model in which landlords use share contracts to extract a surplus from their tenants, but this blunts effort on leased land, and results in a misallocation of effort on owned and leased plots of land. A redistributive land reform realigns incentives, and increases labor productivity in the farm sector, leading to an accelerated reallocation of labor out of agriculture. However, land reform has a relatively minor impact on land productivity. I find that qualitative implications of the model are broadly consistent with the economic performance of Japan, S. Korea, and Taiwan in the aftermath of their redistributive land reforms. While these cases provide concrete historical episodes in which the link between initial conditions (here land distribution) and future economic growth can be examined, there are several reasons to think that the same topic might deserve a different treatment in other contexts, with implications for empirical cross-country studies. It is thus appropriate to conclude the paper by briefly discussing some of these reasons. My analysis relies on economic and political histories of Japan, S. Korea, and Taiwan to identify as exogenous the redistributive land reforms that gave way to an egalitarian initial distribution of land. In these cases, there was no noticeable political backlash in response to redistributive land reforms by former landlords whose political and economic powers were severely curtailed after World War II. Historically, however, redistributive land reforms have not always been peaceful and have always faced severe political opposition. In particular, in those countries where plantation agriculture dominates the agrarian structure, and land distribution is extremely skewed and correlated with political power, both the modelling of pre-reform agriculture and the responses of agents to a land reform require an approach that is significantly different from the one presented 35 Labor employed in S. Korean rice farming is reported by Jeon and Kim (2000) in units of “men equivalents.” 33 here (Binswanger et al., 1995). Along similar lines, in countries where ethnic/racial and class boundaries overlap significantly, the possible implications of land reform for agrarian development is possibly more complex to study (Barraclough, 1970). It is also worth mentioning that the analysis has made no attempt to formally link initial land distribution to economic policies toward agriculture—a topic that has also received surprisingly little attention. Appendix A Data sources and parameter choices In this appendix, I discuss the choice of the baseline and alternative parameter values, as well as the calibration targets in the pre-reform equilibrium. Unless there is strong evidence to the contrary, I set identical utility and production function parameters for each country. A.1 Exogenously set parameters ˙ scan, Elasticity of substitution in consumption, ν: Most of the earlier work (e.g., Dennis and I¸ 2009; Herrendorf, Rogerson, and Valentinyi, 2013) finds gross complementarity between food and non-food consumption goods. I set ν = 0.1 as the benchmark, and use ν = 0.5 to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to changes in this parameter. Weight of non-food in composite consumption, η: This parameter is the share of consumption expenditures on non-food in the asymptotic steady-state of the model. Consistent with a value of γf > 0, this share has increased over time in industrialized countries. For instance, in the United States, at the turn turn of the twentieth century it was 42.5 percent and increased to 87.9 percent at the turn of the twenty-first century (U.S. Department of Labor, 2006, p 3, and Table 29). I use 80 percent as the baseline parameter. Subsistence food requirement, γf : I set this parameter equal to .3 (30 percent of initial farm TFP). For this parameter I do not use a calibration target, such as share of expenditures on food, because, in this class of models, it is difficult to independently match the share of expenditures on different consumption goods and the share of employment by sector. For the purposes of completeness, I report in the text the share of expenditures on food by the cultivators and workers. For the purposes of comparison, I note that Honma and Hayami (2009) report that in Japan this share (“Engel coefficient”) was “higher than 60 percent” in the early twentieth century and was 52 percent in 1955. Cha and Kim (2012) report that in Korea food consumption-to-income (GDP) ratio was about 65 percent in 1938/40, and suggest a lower ratio for Taiwan; consistent with this estimate, for Taiwan, Oshima 34 (1986, p. 795) recommends a five percentage point adjustment to the Engel coefficient in South Korea. Weight of effort in farm production, αf : There are no direct estimates of this elasticity parameter for the early periods. Given the Cobb-Douglas specification of farm production, and competitive factor markets (except land), this parameter is closely related to share of labor in farm output (which includes return to effort and managerial time). For the pre-reform Japan (1936), Ryoo (1978, Table 27) reports the following factor shares: labor income 61 percent, capital income 6 percent and rents 33 percent. In their study of growth accounting for Korea in the first half of the twentieth century, Cha and Kim (2012) use the following factor shares: labor 0.51, capital 0.26, and land 0.23. Given that about 80 percent of the labor force at that time was in agriculture, and land was primarily used in agriculture, I imputed the share of labor in agriculture as αf = (.8 × .51)/(.8 × .51 + .23) = .64. This is the baseline parameter in all three cases. Weight of effective labor in nonfarm production, αn : Following the methodology for αf , I compute the share of labor in nonfarm by (.2 × .51)/(.2 × .51 + .23) = .69. I use this as the baseline parameter. For the non-agricultural sector (1966–1990), Young (1995) reports αn = 0.70 for South Korea and 0.74 for Taiwan. Elasticity of farm output with respect to effort and land, µ: I set µ = .9 as the benchmark, and use ν = .8 to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to a change in this elasticity parameter. Farm total factor productivity, zf : Normalized to 1. Note that this productivity factor excludes changes in effort. Initial capital stock, K0 : Since estimates of capital stock are notoriously noisy, I normalize the initial capital stock in the model, by setting the initial period capital-labor ratio equal to land-labor ratio: ˜0 K = tii,0 + tij,0 . H0 (A.1) I report the capital–output ratio implied by the solution of the model in table 3. Parameters related to incentive compatibility constraints: The following parameters are only needed to check and verify that (1) leasing a plot is optimal for a cultivator in the prereform period; and (2) the incentive compatibility condition (7) is satisfied in equilibrium: fixed land rent when the tenant shirks and is caught by the landlord, τ = 0.3, set equivalent to subsistence consumption requirement; land productivity for fodder when the tenant exerts no effort on leased land (eij = 0), β = 0.10; land productivity for fodder when the tenant 35 exerts effort on leased land (eij > 0), β ∗ = 0.01; fixed rent when tenant shirks and is caught, τ ; and probability of being caught after shirking, π = 0.5. Since livestock agriculture has been relatively unimportant in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, I have set the productivity terms β and β ∗ “low” relative to the farm TFP. A.2 Calibration targets Share of employment in nonfarm, ln : The closest empirical counterpart of this variable is one minus the share of employment in agriculture (including fishing and forestry). However, several sources report significantly different shares, especially for Japan and Taiwan. In Table 2, I report the share of employment in nonfarm for 1955 from Honma and Hayami (2009): 65 percent in Japan, 20 percent in South Korea, and 45 percent in Taiwan (data are rounded slightly). The alternative estimates are for 1950 from Larson and Mundlak (1997, Table B2): 51 percent in Japan, 33 percent in South Korea, and 37 percent in Taiwan. Tenant share of farm output, λ: I set the pre-reform contract share (of tenants) based on historical accounts of share contracts. For Japan, Kawagoe (1999) suggests a rental rate of 50 percent of annual crop yield, λ = 0.50. For South Korea, Dorner and Thiesenhusen (1990) suggest a rental rate of 60 percent, whereas Ban et al. (1980) suggest 50 percent. In Taiwan, according to Chen (1961), the rental rate was 50 percent to 70 percent of the total annual main crop yield. In the baseline model, I use λ = 0.40 (and also for South Korea and Taiwan), and λ = .50 for sensitivity analysis. Ratio of leased-to-owned land by tenants, tij /tii : In pre-reform (1941) Japan, 53 percent of the cultivated land was under tenancy. This gives the ratio between own and leased land before the land reform as tii /tij = 47/53 = .89, or tij /tii = 1.13. In pre-reform (1945) South Korea, 64 percent of the cultivated land was under tenancy. This gives the ratio between owned and leased land before the land reform as tii /tij = 36/64 = .56, or tij /tii = 1.778. In pre-reform (1949) Taiwan, 39 percent of the cultivated land was under tenancy. This gives the ratio between own and leased land before the land reform as tii /tij = 61/39 = 1.56, or tij /tii = 0.64. (See table 1.) In the case of South Korea, it is possible to confirm the plausibility of these values using data on redistributed land, which took three forms: (1) redistributed land through the reform act by the Korean government (302,000 jungbo)36 ; (2) land owned by the Japanese and sold to tenants by the U.S. occupation (273,000 jungbo); and (3) land sold by landlords in the market before the reform act was implemented (714,000 jungbo, which was about 37 percent of the 36 One jungbo is equivalent to about .992 hectare (ha). 36 arable land). This direct and indirect redistribution thus amounted to about 67 percent of the arable land in South Korea (Jeon and Kim, 2000, Table 1, p. 258). Although what matters for the analysis here is the ratio of leased to owned land, it is important to mention that not all leased land was owned by “landlords” as the term is commonly used. For instance, according to a 1924 survey in Japan, absentee and village landlords, who were nonfarming and owned more than 5 hectares of land, owned about 13 percent (810 ha/5, 983 ha) × 100 of the cultivated land—though apparently the landlord class grew and became more “parasitic” over time until the war (Kawagoe, 1999, Tables 4.1 4.8, p. 19). Farm–nonfarm wage gap, wi /w: I use the pre-reform value of this ratio to calibrate the nonfarm urban premium or penalty κ. Unfortunately, the data counterparts of model variables for farm–nonfarm wage ratio are difficult to come by. The closest empirical variable available is the ratio of per capita income in a farm household divided by per capita income in a nonfarm household, which does not account for off-farm income by farm households, does not use an equivalence scale, and does not adjust for differences in human capital. Whereas off-farm income by farm households tend to overstate farm income per capita in a farm household, relatively larger farm-household sizes overstate differences in farm–nonfarm incomes. Unfortunately, there is limited data on off-farm income to gauge the precise direction of a possible bias in this empirical variable. In the pre-reform Japan, off-farm income was usually less than 25 percent of total farm household income, and as low as 10 percent (Kaneda, 1980). In the post-reform Japan and Taiwan, nonfarm employment was a significant component of rural development strategy. As a result, off-farm income as a percent of total income of a farm family with average farm size, which was 25 percent in 1957 Japan, and 24 percent in 1958 Taiwan, increased gradually over time. However, in South Korea, even by 1968 off-farm income was only 19 percent of total farm income (Oshima, 1986). To my knowledge, there is virtually no pre-reform data on household sizes. For the post-reform era, Honma and Hayami (2009) report that in 1955 the number of persons per farm household was 6 in Japan and South Korea and 6.3 in Taiwan, and United Nations (1997, Table 27) reports for Japan that in 1985 the household size was 3.6 in rural areas and 3.0 in urban areas. Overall then, there is evidence for opposing effects, but it is impossible to state with any certainty whether these effects have offset each other during the period under study. Turning to available data, for Japan, Honma and Hayami (2009, Table 2.7) report farm– nonfarm income ratio of .38 in 1935 and .77 in 1955. Thus, I use .40 in the baseline model and .70 in the sensitivity analysis. For South Korea, many accounts point to significantly higher pre-reform rural poverty, but not necessarily to significantly higher urban incomes. Boyer and Ahn (1991, Chapter 2) report a rural–urban household mean income ratio of 1.03 37 in the early 1960s, which I use as the baseline. For sensitivity analysis, I use .70 as in Japan. Unfortunately, there is no comparable estimate for Taiwan, so I use the same value as in South Korea. Gross saving rate: This calibration target is used to pin down θ, the saving rate for capitalists. There are two distinct and possible measures in this context; (1) the investment-to-GDP ratio, and (2) household saving-to-GDP ratio (since the model does not have a government and external sector). For the earliest (non-war) year available, Heston, Summers, and Aten (2012) report the following investment-to-GDP ratios at current prices (ci): 14 percent for Japan in 1950, 10 percent for South Korea in 1955, and 10.5 percent for Taiwan in 1951. For the household saving rate, Oshima (1986, Table A1) report personal and corporate savings as a percent of GDP, the sums of these savings rates for the 1950s are 3.2 percent for South Korea and 5.1 percent for Taiwan. Gross rate of return to capital: I use 5 per cent as the net annualized rate of return to capital. For Korea in the first half of the twentieth century, Cha and Kim (2012) compute a depreciation rate δ of 7.9 percent. Combining these two figures gives a target of about 13 percent. A.3 Data sources for Table 6 Table 6 reports qualitative indicators of realized “relative outcomes” for Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan. These are based on the following observations: Output per farm worker: The data are for rice production and labor used in rice production (measured in units of “1,000 men equivalent”), and are reported in Jeon and Kim (2000). The production data are in units of suk converted into metric units (1 suk = 0.101269 metric tons). According to these data, over the period 1940–1944, average rice output per farm worker was 1,100 kg, and over the period 1955–1959, it was 1,122 kg, representing a “low” labor productivity growth of 2%. Yield: Yield is measured as kilos per hectare. For Japan, data are from Statistics Japan (2014, Table 07-14), with an average yield of 2,966 kg/ha in the 1940s, and 3,345 kg/ha in the 1950s (a 12.78% increase). For S. Korea, data are from Jeon and Kim (2000), with an average yield of 1,351 kg/ha from 1940 to 1944, and 1,122 kg/ha from 1955 to 1959 (a 40% increase). For Taiwan, Ryoo (1978, p. 431) notes, somewhat confusingly, that “According to statistics compiled by Provincial Food Bureau, an increase of farm returns as a result of land reform was about 487kg. (= 1,947 kg. - 1,460 kg.) of paddy rice per hectare after land-rent reduction program and additional 63 kg (=1,460 kg. - 229 kg - 1,168 kg.) of paddy rice per hectare 38 after implementation of land-transfer program.” I take these numbers as suggesting that the total estimated change in yield during the Taiwanese of land reform was 550kg., with the initial yield being 1,397kg/ha. This gives a 40% increase in rice yield during the Taiwanese land reform. Note that, the relative rankings of farm labor and land productivity growth in post-reform Japan and Taiwan in table 6 are consistent those reported by Johnston and Kilby (1975, Table 4.1). Share of employment in nonfarm (structural change): For Japan, according to Statistics Japan (2014, Table 19-07), in 1952, this share was 56.1%, and by 1960 it increased to 71.3% (a rate of change of 27%). For S. Korea, (Honma and Hayami, 2009, Table 2.1) report a share of 20% in 1955, rising to 40% in 1960 (a rate of change of 100%). For Taiwan, (Taiwan, Republic of China, 2006, Table 2-9b) reports the share of employment in primary industry as 56.1% in 1952, and 50.2% in 1960. Based on these data, the rate of change in the share of employment in the rest of the industries is 13%. 39 References Alesina, Alberto, and Dani Rodrik, 1994. Distributive politics and economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 109 (2), 465–490, URL http://www.jstor.org/stable/2118470. 3 Ban, Sung Hwan, Pal Yong Mun, and Dwight H. Perkins, 1980. Studies in the Modernization of the Republic of Korea, 1945–1975: Rural Development. Harvard East Asian Monographs 89, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA. 6, 7, 9, 20, 21, 36 Banerjee, Abhijit, and Lakshmi Iyer, 2005. History, institutions, and economic performance: The legacy of colonial land tenure systems in India. American Economic Review 95 (4), 1190– 1213, URL http://www.jstor.org/stable/4132711. 1, 4 Banerjee, Abhijit V., Paul J. Gertler, and Maitreesh Ghatak, 2002. Empowerment and efficiency: Tenancy reform in West Bengal. Journal of Political Economy 110 (2), 239–280, URL http: //www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/338744. 4, 20 Banerjee, Abhijit V., and Andrew F. Newman, 1993. Occupational choice and the process of development. Journal of Political Economy 101 (2), 274–298. 5, 19 Barraclough, Solon L., 1970. Agricultural policy and land reform. Journal of Political Economy 78 (4), 906–947, URL http://www.jstor.org/stable/1829816. 15, 34 Besley, Timothy, and Robin Burgess, 2000. Land reform, poverty reduction, and growth: Evidence from India. Quarterly Journal of Economics 115 (2), 389–430, URL http://www.jstor. org/stable/2586998. 4, 8 Binswanger, Hans P., Klaus Deininger, and Gershon Feder, 1995. Power, distortions, revolt, and reform in agricultural land relations. Elsevier, Amsterdam, Handbook of Development Economics, vol. 3, Part B, pp. 2659–2772. 1, 3, 10, 34 Boyer, William W., and Byong Man Ahn, 1991. Rural Development in South Korea: A Sociopolitical Analysis. Associated University Presses, Cranbery, N.J., London, U.K. 21, 37 Cha, Myung Soo, and Nak Nyeon Kim, 2012. Korea’s first industrial revolution, 1911–1940. Explorations in Economic History 49 (1), 60–74, doi:10.1016/j.eeh.2011.09.003. 34, 35, 38 Chen, Cheng, 1961. Land Reform in Taiwan. China Publishing Co., Taipei. 6, 8, 9, 12, 36 ˙ scan, 2009. Engel versus Baumol: accounting for U.S. strucDennis, Benjamin N., and Talan B. I¸ tural change using two centuries of data. Explorations in Economic History 46, 186–202. 34 Dore, Ronald P., 1959. Land reform in Japan. Oxford University Press, London and New York. 6, 7 Dorner, Peter, and William C. Thiesenhusen, 1990. Selected land reforms in east and southeast asia: Their origins and impacts. Asian-Pacific Economic Literature 4 (1), URL http://dx. doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8411.1990.tb00025.x. 6, 7, 36 Easterly, William, 2007. Inequality does cause underdevelopment: Insights from a new instrument. Journal of Development Economics 84 (2), 755–776, URL http://www.sciencedirect. com/science/article/pii/S0304387806001830. 3 Engerman, Stanley L., and Kenneth L. Sokoloff, 1997. Factor endowments, institutions, and differential paths of growth in New World economies. In: Haber, Stephen (Ed.), How Latin America Fell Behind: Essays on the Economic Histories of Brazil and Mexico, 1800–1914, Stanford University Press, Stanford, CA, pp. 260–304. 1, 3 Engerman, Stanley L., and Kenneth L. Sokoloff, 2006. Colonialism, inequality, and long-run 40 paths of development. In: Banerjee, Abhijit Vinayak, Roland B´enabou, and Dilip Mookherjee (Eds.), Understanding Poverty, Oxford Scholarship Online, doi:10.1093/0195305191.003. 0003. Accessed 30 March 2012. 3, 5 Eswaran, Mukesh, and Ashok Kotwal, 1985. A theory of contractual structure in agriculture. American Economic Review 75 (3), 352–367, URL http://www.jstor.org/stable/1814805. 21 Falkinger, Josef, and Volker Grossmann, 2013. Oligarchic land ownership, entrepreneurship, and economic development. Journal of Development Economics 101, 206–215, doi:10.1016/j. jdeveco.2012.11.003. 3, 5 FAO, 2013. World census of agriculture. URL http://www.fao.org. 9 Frankema, Ewout, 2010. The colonial roots of land inequality: Geography, factor endowments, or institutions? Economic History Review 63 (2), 418–451, URL http://dx.doi.org/10. 1111/j.1468-0289.2009.00479.x. 1, 3, 9 Galor, Oded, Omer Moav, and Dietrich Vollrath, 2009. Inequality in landownership, the emergence of human-capital promoting institutions, and the great divergence. Review of Economic Studies 76 (1), 143–179, doi:10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00506.x. 3, 5 Ghatak, Maitreesh, and Sanchari Roy, 2007. Land reform and agricultural productivity in India: A review of the evidence. Oxford Review of Economic Policy 23 (2), 251–269. 4, 5 Greenwood, Jeremy, and Boyan Jovanovic, 1990. Financial development, growth, and the distribution of income. Journal of Political Economy 98 (5), 1076–1107. 5 Hayami, Yujiro, and Vernon W. Ruttan, 1971. Agricultural Development: An International Perspective. Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore and London. 6, 31 ´ Herrendorf, Berthold, Richard Rogerson, and Akos Valentinyi, 2013. Growth and structural transformation. NBER Working Paper No. 18996. 34 Heston, Alan, Robert Summers, and Bettina Aten, 2012. Penn World Table Version 7.1. Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, July. 38 Honma, Masayoshi, and Yujiro Hayami, 2009. Japan, Republic of Korea, and Taiwan, China. In: Anderson, Kym (Ed.), Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: A Global Perspective, 1955– 2007, World Bank, Washington, DC, pp. 67–114. 4, 5, 6, 7, 21, 31, 34, 36, 37, 39 Hsieh, Chang-Tai, and Peter J. Klenow, 2009. Misallocation and manufacturing TFP in China and India. Quarterly Journal of Economics 124 (4), 1403–1448. 5 Jeon, Yoong-Deok, and Young-Yong Kim, 2000. Land reform, income redistribution, and agricultural production in Korea. Economic Development and Cultural Change 48 (2), 253–268. 3, 7, 8, 31, 33, 37, 38 Johnston, Bruce F., and Peter Kilby, 1975. Agriculture and Structural Transformation: Economic Strategies in Late Developing Countries. Oxford University Press, New York. 11, 31, 39 Kaneda, Hiromitsu, 1980. Structural change and policy response in Japanese agriculture after the land reform. Economic Development and Cultural Change 28 (3), 469–486, URL http: //www.jstor.org/stable/1153683. 3, 37 Kawagoe, Toshihiko, 1999. Agricultural land reform in postwar Japan: Experiences and issues. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2111, Washington, D.C. 4, 6, 7, 9, 36, 37 Koo, Anthony Y. C., 1968. The role of land reform in economic development: A case study of Taiwan. Frederick A. Praeger, New York. 3, 11, 20 Laffont, Jean-Jacques, and Mohamed Salah Matoussi, 1995. Moral hazard, financial constraints 41 and sharecropping in el oulja. Review of Economic Studies 62 (3), 381–399, URL http: //www.jstor.org/stable/2298034. 1 Larson, Donald F., and Yair Mundlak, 1997. On the intersectoral migration of agricultural labor. Economic Development and Cultural Change 45 (2), 295–319. 36 Lucas, Robert E., Jr., 1978. On the size distribution of business firms. Bell Journal of Economics 9 (2), 508–523. 11 Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth. Journal of Economic Theory 58, 317–334. 5 McMillan, Margaret S., and Dani Rodrik, 2011. Globalization, structural change and productivity growth. NBER Working Paper No. 17143. 5 Oshima, Harry T., 1986. The transition from an agricultural to an industrial economy in East Asia. Economic Development and Cultural Change 34 (4), 783–809, URL http://www.jstor.org/ stable/1153732. 4, 34, 37, 38 Rodrik, Dani, 1995. Getting interventions right: How South Korea and Taiwan grew rich. Economic Policy 10 (20), 53–107. 3, 4 Ryoo, Jae-Kap, 1978. Land reform and its effects on social equality in Japan and Taiwan: A comparative study. University Microfilms International, Ann Arbor, Mich. 6, 9, 12, 20, 31, 35, 38 Shaban, Radwan Ali, 1987. Testing between competing models of sharecropping. Journal of Political Economy 95 (5), 893–920, URL http://www.jstor.org/stable/1833122. 1, 8, 11 Statistics Japan, 2014. Historical statistics of japan. URL http://www.stat.go.jp/english/ data/chouki/07.htm. 38, 39 Taiwan, Republic of China, 2006. Taiwan statistical data book. Council for Economic Planning and Development, URL http://www.cepd/gov.tw/upload.OVERALL/PubStat/DataBook/. 39 United Nations, 1997. Demographic Yearbook. New York, URL http://unstats.un.org/unsd/ demographic/products/dyb/dybsets/1995%20DYB.pdf. 37 U.S. Department of Labor, 2006. 100 years of U.S. consumer spending: Data for the nation, New York City, and Boston. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, D.C., URL http: //www.bls.gov/opub/uscs/. 34 WIDER, 2008. UNU–WIDER World Income Inequality Database. Version 2.0c, May, URL http: //www.wider.unu.edu/research/Database/en_GB/database/. 8 Yoo, Dongwoo, and Richard H. Steckel, 2010. Property rights and financial development: The legacy of Japanese colonial institutions. NBER Working Paper No. 16551. 6 Young, Alwyn, 1995. The tyranny of numbers: Confronting the statistical realities of East Asia. Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (3), 641–680. 3, 5, 35 42 S Online Supplementary Material S.1 Numerical solution algorithm I solve the equilibrium of the model numerically for two cases: before and after the implementation of land reforms and for each country separately. Consistent with the model and its focus on the stand-alone effect of a redistributive land reform on economic outcomes, I interpret these as the steady-state solutions. To parametrize the model, I use data on pre-reform outcomes. Exogenously set parameters: The exogenously set parameters are: 1. The elasticity of substitution between food and non-food items in consumption, ν; 2. Weight of non-food consumption in composite consumption, η; 3. The subsistence food requirement, γf ; 4. Weight of effort in farm production, αf ; 5. Weight of effective labor in nonfarm production, αn ; 6. The return to span of control by farmers, µ; 7. The depreciation rate, δ; 8. Farm total factor productivity, zf ; 9. Plot size of leased land, tij ; Pre-reform targets. The remaining parameters are pinned down by matching the following calibration target values from the pre-reform period: 1. Share of employment in nonfarm, H/L ≡ ln ; 2. Tenant share of farm output as stipulated by norms and sharecropping contracts, λ; 3. Ratio of leased to owned land by tenants, tij /tii ; 4. Wage (or income) gap between farm and nonfarm households, wi /w; and 5. Gross rate of return to capital, r; 6. Share of consumption expenditures on food; 7. Gross saving rate. S.1 Pre-reform equilibrium solution: The numerical solution of the model uses the exogenously set parameters, calibration targets, equations for factor payments in the nonfarm sector (21) and (22), the market clearing conditions for the goods produced by the farm and nonfarm sectors (23) and (24), the allocative efficiency condition for tenant effort (13). The solution to the pre-reform equilibrium proceeds as follows: Step 1 : Set the parameters γf and the weight on the utility of leisure . Step 2 : Given the farm–nonfarm relative wage, share of employment in nonfarm ln , ratio of leased to owned land by tenants tij /tii , and tenant share of farm output λ, solve for the triplet, the relative price of farm–nonfarm goods p, tenant effort levels on owned and leased land eii and eij , which (i) clears the market for food [equation (23)] and (ii) maximizes tenant utility (assuming eij > 0). Step 3 : Solve for, using the labor mobility condition (18), eh and the implied urban penalty (or bonus) κ measured in units of effort. Step 4 : Solve for the nonfarm TFP zn and initial capital stock K0 by targeting the gross rate of return to capital r, and nonfarm income. Step 5 : Solve for the share of consumption expenditures on food. If this is substantially different from the calibration target, revise γf and , and repeat. Step 6 : Solve for the average propensity to save by capitalists θ by targeting the gross saving rate. Step 7 : Check and verify that renting a plot from a landlord is optimal for a cultivator. Step 8 : Check to verify that incentive compatibility condition (7) is satisfied. Notice that the economy features both market and non-market allocation mechanisms; while labor and goods are entirely allocated through markets, capital markets exhibit limited participation (by capitalists only) and there is no market for land. The model also features Walrasian (competitive) and non-Walrasian markets: whereas labor and goods markets are Walrasian, landlords set the terms of share contracts. The dynamics of the economy are highly stylized as well: while there is savings and capital accumulation, economic decisions underlying such considerations are independent of the state of the economy. S.2 S.2 Characterization of equilibrium allocations In sequential equilibrium, sectoral employment shares are endogenous. Given our monotonicity assumption on the utility functions, in equilibrium, the market clearing conditions stated in per employment L terms must be satisfied: (1 − ˆlnt )ˆ cf (ˆ yi,t , pˆt ) + ˆlnt cˆf (w ˆt , pˆt ) = (1 − ˆlnt )ˆ yi,t , (1 − ˆlnt )ˆ cn (ˆ yi,t , pˆt ) + ˆlnt cˆn (w ˆt , pˆt ) + rˆt kˆt ˆlnt = ˆlnt zn f n (kˆt ), (S.1) (S.2) where lnt is the share of employment in nonfarm sector at time t. Solutions to (8) and (17) involve equating marginal rate of substitution in consumption between food and non-food: csf t , cˆsnt ) ucf (ˆ ucn (ˆ csf t , cˆsnt ) = pˆt , (S.3) where s = {i, h}. Also, in the case of cultivators, at the margin, disutility from additional effort either on leased or owned land equals the utility gain from additional income due to additional effort: ! f (w i , p) n (w i , p) ∂c ∂g(eii , tii ) ∂c p zf ucf (cif , cin ) = ve (eii + eij ), (S.4) + ucn (cif , cin ) f f ∂eii ∂yi ∂yi ! f (w i , p) n (w i , p) ∂g(eij , tij ) ∂c ∂c λij p zf ucf (cif , cin ) + ucn (cif , cin ) = ve (eii + eij ). (S.5) f f ∂eij ∂yi ∂yi For an interior solution (ˆ eii , eˆij ) > 0, taking the ratio of the above expressions gives the production efficiency condition given in equation (11). Note that the tenant has an option to shirk. To ensure that the set of allocations computed by the algorithm are optimal (i.e., incentive compatible) we need to compare the utility of the tenant when effort on leased land is positive with that of zero effort eij = 0. Of course, when the tenant has an option to exert no effort on the leased land, the optimal effort on the owned land would also be different. So, we calculate the expected utility when the tenant shirks. h i max π u(cf (wi (eij = 0, 1), p), cn (wi (eij = 0, 1), p)) eii h i + (1 − π) u(cf (wi (eij = 0, 0), p), cn (wi (eij = 0, 0), p)) − v(eii ), (S.6) wi (eij = 0, 1) is tenant’s income when the effort on leased land is zero, and the tenant is caught, and wi (eij = 0, 0) is income when effort on leased land is zero but the tenant is not caught. In this case, the optimal effort level is characterized by the following first-order condition ! ∂wi (eij = 0, 1) ∂u ∂cf (wi , p) ∂u ∂cn (wi , p) π + ∂eii ∂cif ∂wi (eij = 0, 1) ∂cin ∂wi (eij = 0, 1) ! ∂wi (eij = 0, 0) ∂u ∂cf (wi , p) ∂u ∂cn (wi , p) ∂v +(1 − π) + − = 0. (S.7) i i i i ∂eii ∂eii ∂cf ∂w (eij = 0, 0) ∂cn ∂w (eij = 0, 0) Note that, conditional on shirking on leased land, the marginal product of effort on owned land does not depend on whether the tenant is caught or not. S.3 Therefore, for s = {i, h}, the equality of the marginal rates of substitution in consumption between food and non-food (S.3) is csn η ν =p . (S.8) csf − γf 1−η We can use the above condition and the budget constraints to solve for individual demand functions: cf (w, ˜ p) = w ˜ + γf pν η/(1 − η) , p + pν η/(1 − η) cn (w, ˜ p) = pν η/(1 − η) (w ˜ − γf p) , ν p + p η/(1 − η) (S.9) where w ˜ = p yi ≡ wi for cultivators and w ˜ = w for workers. Income of a cultivator depends on effort, which is a choice variable. S.4
© Copyright 2025