Rehabilitation: The 3R’s Glen J. Bertini and Richard K. Brinton Novinium, Inc. Abstract: There are over 2 billion feet of aging underground power cable in North America. This large quantity of cable must be rehabilitated for the circuits to continue to provide a reliable electric supply. This paper provides a strategic paradigm for optimal use of capital to tackle this problem. Re-evaluate, Rejuvenate, and Replace are the 3R’s of an advanced tactical rehabilitation program, which provides the optimum benefit-tocost ratio. An improved set of materials and processes are introduced to rejuvenate cables with unsustained pressure for the few cases where the more advanced sustained pressure rejuvenation method is difficult to implement. Re-evalulate Replace INTRODUCTION Circuit owners recognize in [1] the daunting task of aging circuit rehabilitation which requires attention and massive financial resources over the next several decades: Rejuvenate “Engineering experts now believe the nation is entering a period that could be marked by a dramatic increase in local power outages unless considerably more is spent on addressing old and deteriorated lines. Many utilities feel a pressing need to spend more money on their power-distribution systems. In a survey of 39 top utility executives … distribution-system spending ranked as the No. 1 priority, ahead of generation and environmental compliance, according to Jone-Lin Wang, senior director … Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Black & Veatch estimates the industry needs to spend an additional $8 billion to $10 billion a year to tackle the problem of obsolete … equipment.” The reliability expectations of the electrical consumer and electrical regulators continue to rise as more and more homebased businesses and telecommuters require uninterrupted power. The imminent arrival of plug-in vehicles driven by the rising cost of oil will provide another large increase in electrical consumption and still higher reliability expectations. Wholesale replacement of these two billion feet would likely exceed 80 billion U.S. dollars or about 4 billion dollars per year for the next two decades. Wholesale replacement is the second worst option. The least favourable course is to allow the cables to fail, since the total cost of failure will rise much faster than inflation. This paper provides a road map for the most capital efficient approach to this rehabilitation challenge. 3R’S Most people think that the 3R’s are “Reading, ‘Righting, and ‘Rithmitic.” The 3R’s of the distribution rehabilitation business are Re-evaluate, Rejuvenate, and Replace. Figure 1 shows the relationship of these three R’s. glen.bertini@novinium.com; rich.brinton@novinium.com ICC SubA, October 28, 2008 Figure 1. The 3R's of rehabilitation: Rejuvenate, and Replace. Re-evaluate, Continual re-evaluation of the population of at-risk cables surrounds the process. Those cables, which are most likely to fail and which have the greatest impact on reliability, are identified and segregated from the entire population. As shown in [2] for almost all conceivable circumstances, stateof-the-art rejuvenation requires less than half of the capital required to replace cables. Modern rejuvenation extends reliable cable life to a par with the anticipated life of new replacement cable as documented in [3,4]. Because of its inherent capital efficiency, rejuvenation is applied to the majority of the identified population of at risk cables. However, some portion of those cables may not be practically treatable and hence some of the identified population must be replaced. Because replacement is so much less capital efficient than rejuvenation, a tactical plan is required to minimize the added cost of the replacement portion of the rehabilitation plan. RE-EVALUATE AND THE 3D’S Figure 2, shows the three kinds of inputs that need to be considered in the process to re-evaluate the population of atrisk cables. The 3 inputs, or 3D’s are: 1. Database of failure statistics and cable “demographics” 2. Distribution hierarch of needs or the 5P’s 3. Diagnostics Failure Statistics Preventati ve Proacti ve tic D is t. 5P s ia gn os Proble matic Postfailure (reacti ve) s Preemp tive D t os gn ia ics D Distribution Hierarchy of Needs Re-evaluate No Identify splices & corrosion Figure 2. The 3D's (Database, Distribution hierarchy of needs, and Diagnostics are input tools to perform rehabilitation’s re-evaluation requirement. As shown in [5] the database of failure statistics and the “demographics” of the cable, while requiring some effort to collect and verify, are an inexpensive and reliable diagnostic. These statistics empower the circuit owner to thoughtfully assess the probability that a subset of cables is likely to fail, at what rate they are likely to fail, and most importantly, how fast that rate changes with time. The concept of the 5P’s of the distribution hierarchy of needs was introduced in [2]. The 5P’s focus attention and resources on the sub-population of cables, which have the largest impact on circuit-owner-defined reliability requirements. As of this writing the third “D”, diagnostics, has only limited applicability. In [5] it was shown that currently available diagnostics generally fall outside either or both the economic test criterion and/or the thermodynamic test criterion. Advancements in diagnostics are likely to continue, and future tests may become integral parts of the reevaluation process. The balance of this paper will focus on the integration of the two proven rehabilitation options once the re-evaluation has been completed. >0 splices & corrosion ? Yes Rehab? Yes Pinpoint splices and/or corrosion Yes Excavate criteria met? No Sustained Pressure Rejuvenation (SPR) Unsustained Pressure Rejuvenation (UPR) Replace No Air test Flowable ? Yes No Figure 3. Integrated rehabilitation method maximizes capital efficiency and reliability. INTEGRATED REHABILITATION Those that will be rehabilitated move on to the “Identify splices and corrosion” process. This process involves visual inspection of the cable and its components and high resolution time-domain reflectometry to locate splices and neutral corrosion issues. In about half of the cables tested, there will be no splices or significant neutral corrosion. The next decision diamond divides the population of cables to be rehabilitated into two approximately equal sub-populations: Those with no splices or corrosion and those with 1 or more splice or corrosion issues. Figure 3 provides an overview of the tactical implementation of the 3R’s processes. For the first time the benefits of all available rehabilitation methods are integrated into a unified strategy. This fully integrated approach is only available from the authors’ firm, because critical aspects of the process enjoy patent protection as listed in [6]. The patent protection includes both granted and pending patent applications. The top portion of Figure 3 down to the “Rehab?” diamond, recaps the re-evaluation process. Cable’s that will not be rehabilitated in the current planning cycle are recycled back into the at-risk-population to be re-evaluated in the next cycle. Cables that fall in the first category are immediately treated with sustained pressure rejuvenation (SPR), which yields a cable likely to provide reliable service for 40 more years. Cables in the second group advance to a more complete 2 analysis. The analysis identifies and pinpoints all buried splices or corrosion issues and is labeled, “Pinpoint splices or corrosion” on Figure 3. Using a multi-antenna radio frequency (RF) locator, a signal is impressed upon the conductor and perturbations in the RF field near splices and neutral corrosion sites allow the pinpointing of splices or corrosion. On average, the population of pre-1985 vintage, North American bare-concentric neutral cables have less than a 2% incidence of significant neutral corrosion as shown in [7]. A typical splice distribution is shown in Figure 4 for the same population. 100% 90% Failure Distribution 80% 2. 3. 30% 8 5 18 12 9 22 3 17 6 10 20 1 2 11 24 19 15 7 13 23 4 14 16 Utility # Figure 5. Surveyed failure experience of NEETRAC member companies. On average 55% of the failures in the population are perceived as cable failures, 39% are perceived as accessory failures, and 6% are unknown. Some circuit owners are reluctant to excavate splices in almost any circumstance. For some insight on why this may be, Figure 5 from [13] shows a wide disparity in perceived failure experience among prominent circuit owners. The overall cause of URD circuit failure, where the failure was caused by the cable failing, ranges from 5% to 97%. For accessories including splices, the range is from 3% to 80%. It will come as little surprise that circuit owners that experience 97% of their faults in cables and only 3% in splices are reluctant to remove a splice, which is perceived to be “perfectly good.” Such sentiment is understandable, but a careful analysis of the economics and risks should be considered before ruling out aggressive splice replacement. In addition to the three aforementioned problems and the costs associated with flowing through legacy splices, the circuit owner should consider carefully the lament of the stockbroker, “Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.” Just because splices have not been a reliability issue, they none-the-less are approaching, or have already passed, their design lives and will likely experience accelerating wear-out failures. 1 2 3 Historically the application rate of the unsustained pressure rejuvenation (UPR) paradigm ranges from 50% to 90% and averages about 75%. Thus about 25% of the cables in which unsustained pressure rejuvenation is attempted are not treated. About half of the cables to be rejuvenated are splice-free and consequently, easy to treat. While actual results vary significantly between circuit owners, on average about half of the splices on which injection is attempted will support flow. As a consequence non-aggressive splice replacement and the unsustained pressure approach leave about one-quarter of the cables untreated. This 25% must be replaced for reliable service. In fact, as demonstrated in [2], the cables with the most splices are likely the least reliable. 4 12.5% 40% 21 0 6.3% 50% 0% Accordingly, for typical circuit owners about 40% of the atrisk cable population will fulfill the “Excavate criteria met?” test. The splices are excavated, the cables injected with the sustained pressure paradigm, and the aged splices are replaced with new state-of-art components. 1.6% 60% 10% The splice may be many decades old and its ability to provide reliable service for additional decades is less than certain. The process of flowing through splices sometimes causes them to fail as discussed in [8]. The unsustained pressure paradigm utilized to flow through splices is inherently less robust than the sustained pressure injection approach as shown in [3], [4], [9], [10], [11], and [12]. The supplier-guaranteed lifetime on the former is 20 years and 40 years on the later. 3% 70% 20% The pinpointing of splice and corrosion sites allows the economics of excavation to be estimated. When it is economical to excavate, it is generally prudent to do so. While attempting to flow through a legacy splice is seductively attractive from a short-term perspective, there are 3 reasons to minimize this approach as the long-term costs and reliability will be compromised. 1. Cable Unknown Accessories Failure sources 5 Splices 51.6% 25.0% Figure 4. Typical distribution of splices in pre-1985 vintage North American URD cable. 3 Rejuvenate (sustained) 50-90% Rehabilitate Rejuvenate (unsustained) Figure 7. Incremental fluid supplied during typical soak cycles for cables with No.2 and 1/0 conductors and 175 mils of XLPE insulation. Fluid is 95% phenylmethyldimethoxysilane, 4.8% acetophenone, and 0.2% titanium(IV) isopropoxide catalyst. 5-35% Replace 2-8% Figure 7 shows the results of an experiment to measure the additional fluid delivered with a 60-day soak period. The experiment included No.2 and 1/0 cables with 175 mils of polyethylene (XLPE) insulation. Over the course of the 60day soak period 30% to 45% of the supplied fluid is delivered to the strands. As shown by [11], one of the major causes for the undersupply of fluid with the chemistry utilized in this experiment is a mismatch of the diffusion rate of the condensation catalyst and the monomers. The monomers require the catalyst to form larger oligomers, which will not exude quickly from the cable. Figure 6. The tactic with greatest benefit-to-cost ratio (sustained pressure rejuvenation) is executed as often as possible. The second best tactic (unsustained pressure rejuvenation) is applied as often as possible to the leftovers. The residual is replaced as a last resort at the highest capital intensity. In addition to long-term reliability and life-cycle costs, there are non-economic reasons to maximize the use of the sustained pressure rejuvenation method together with aggressive splice replacement and to minimize the use of the unsustained pressure method. These reasons are described in detail in [14] and include the risks associated with multimonth injection periods on energized cables. The next section of this paper introduces an improvement in the unsustained pressure injection paradigm. This improved approach is used in the “Unsustained pressure rejuvenation” process of Figure 3. It is applied to spliced cables that support flow, but that do not meet the economic criteria required to apply the more robust sustained pressure rejuvenation method. Depending upon the propensity of the circuit owner to support aggressive splice replacement, this approach is typically executed in 535% of the rehabilitation population. This leaves the least capital efficient process, replacement, for the residual 2-8% of typical rehabilitation populations. Figure 6 illustrates the typical distribution of the two rejuvenation paradigms and replacement. In [11], a new second generation catalyst system was introduced. The new catalyst system reduces the 39% exudation inefficiency suffered by the titanium catalyzed approach about 20-fold to only a 2% exudation inefficiency. This single improvement increases the amount of fluid available for long term rejuvenation by about 37% – roughly the same as the amount of fluid supplied in a typical soak period. This catalyst improvement, along with other advancements detailed in [10], now provide 20-year life extension without the need for a soak period. When utilized, the soak period involves numerous safety and reliability compromises, as detailed in [14]. Of particular importance is the presence of potentially energized unshielded components in otherwise dead-front devices. Figure 8, excerpted from [16], shows a typical arrangement of soak bottles left connected to elbows for 60 or more days. Tags warn the circuit operating personnel that all of the equipment must be treated as live-front and that the equipment may be energized when the permanent shielded cap is not in place. IMPROVED UNSUSTAINED PRESSURE For over two decades the unsustained pressure injection process has been executed with few changes. In [9] and [15] it was demonstrated that the unsustained pressure method does not allow a sufficient quantity of first generation rejuvenation fluid to be injected in most URD cables. A soak period has generally been employed to partially address the undersupply of fluid. A second safety issue associated with the unsustained injection approach is described in [17] and [18]. In short, the direct access injection port, shown in cross section in Figure 9, provides for direct access from the conductor to the outside and ground potential. 4 Second generation unsustained pressure injection can be applied to cables with splices that support flow at low pressure and can be utilized in the following cases: 1. In all live-front systems whether or not the cable is energized. 2. On all dead-front systems that accept Cooper Power Systems 15-35kV injection elbows or components. The cable may be energized during injection and does not need to be deenergized to disconnect the fluid supply or vacuum components. 3. On all dead-front systems that accept Elastimold 15-35kV injection components. The cable may be energized during injection and does not need to be deenergized to disconnect the fluid supply or vacuum components. Figure 11 presents an application overview showing how low pressure dry gas is used to pressurize a fluid delivery bottle. The bottle in turn, typically pressurized to between 10 and 30 psig, delivers fluid to the access interface, into an injection elbow, and into the strand interstices. Figure 12 demonstrates how fluid flows around the compression connector in typical molded splices. On the other end of the cable a vacuum draws the fluid into a receiving vessel. Figure 8. Typical arrangement of soak tanks and injection caps in direct access elbows from [16] creates multi-month hazards in the unsustained pressure injection approach when utilizing first generation fluid injection technology. This direct access must be exposed to swap permanent, shielded caps or plugs and non-permanent injection caps or plugs. Figure 9 shows a cut-away of a typical direct access elbow. The proprietary reticular flash preventer (RFP) is a recent innovation. The flash-over problem is so acute when an RFP is not present on 35 kV systems that the caps or plugs may not be removed when the system is energized. While deenergizing the cable eliminates the potential for electrical flashover, there is a cost and customer service penalty that must be borne by the circuit owner for this time consuming approach. The RFP device is designed to hold dielectric fluid in place against the pull of gravity using capillary action, while at the same time not impeding the flow of fluid into or out of the cable when an access port interface is attached to facilitate unsustained pressure injection. Figure 10 is a photograph of an access interface (AI) used to safely deliver fluid to and from the cable strands with conventional direct access elbows for unsustained pressure injection. RFP Figure 10. Access Interface (AI) used on dead-front elbows allows unsustained pressure injection on URD systems. Figure 9. Direct access injection elbow used for unsustained pressure injection. The reticular flash preventer (RFP) is absent from older injection methods. 5 Figure 12. Fluid flows from the strand interstices around a compression connector and back into the strand interstices at a typical molded splice at pressures between 10 and 30 psig. REFERENCES 1. Smith, “Aged Equipment Sends Jolt through Strained Power Industry”, Wall Street Journal, August 18, 2006, p.A1. 2. Brinton, “Underground Distribution Reliability: The 5•Ps”, Electric Energy, Issue 1, 2007. 3. Bertini, “Accelerated Aging of Rejuvenated Cables – Part I”, ICC, Sub. A, April 19, 2005. 4. Bertini, “Accelerated Aging of Rejuvenated Cables – Part II”, ICC, Sub. A, November 1, 2005. 5. Bertini, “Diagnostic Testing of Stochastic Circuits”, ICC, Sub. C, November 6, 2007. 6. See www.novinium.com/patents. 7. Gurniak, “Neutral Corrosion Problem Overstated Recent study suggests problem may not be as serious as once thought”, Transmission & Distribution World, Aug 1, 1996. 8. Bertini, “Improving Post-treatment Reliability: Eliminating Fluid-Component compatibility Issues”, ICC DG C26D, Nov. 1, 2005. 9. Bertini, “New Developments in Solid Dielectric Life Extension Technology”, IEEE ISEI, Sept. 2004. 10. Bertini & Vincent, “Cable Rejuvenation Mechanisms”, ICC, Sub. A, March 14, 2006. 11. Bertini & Vincent, “Rejuvenation Reformulated”, ICC SubA, May 8, 2007. 12. Bertini & Vincent, “Advances in Chemical Rejuvenation: Extending medium voltage cable life 40 years”, Jicable 2007 – International Conference on Insulated Power Cables, 2007. 13. Begovic, Perkel, Hampton, Hartlein, “Validating cable “diagnostic tests”, B.6.6 presentation (CD), Jicable 2007 – International Conference on Insulated Power Cables, 2007. 14. Bertini, “Injection Hazard Analysis”, updated August 13, 2001. Downloaded from www.utilx.com on December 30, 2002. 15. Bertini, "Injection Supersaturation in Underground Electrical Cables", U.S. Patent 6,162,491. 16. Riley & Sheil, "Solid Dielectric Cable Rejuvenation Technology", EDIST Conference, Jan 22, 2003. 17. Bertini & Stagi, “Method and Apparatus of Blocking Pathways Between a Power Cable and the Environment”, U.S. Patent 6,517,366. 18. Bertini & Stagi, “Method and Apparatus of Blocking Pathways Between a Power Cable and the Environment”, U.S. Patent 6,929,492. Figure 11. Gas is supplied from the cylinder in the foreground at 10-30 psig of pressure to push fluid from the feed tank to the access interface (AI) on the elbow in the transformer. The cable is typically energized during this process and fluid generally flows overnight along a 100 meter (328 foot) length to a vacuum receiver on the other cable end. SUMMARY A complete integrated package of strategic decision support and tactical implementation tools is provided for the first time. The toolset provides the highest possible system reliability at the lowest possible capital cost. This integrated program includes 3●R’s: Continual Re-evaluation, two flavors of Rejuvenation, and Replacement. The program utilizes all of the available tools, each playing to their individual strength. Rejuvenation technology is almost always the most capital effective rehabilitation tactic. Each tool is applied in order of its benefit-to-capital ratio whittling away at the population of at risk cables. Sustained pressure rejuvenation (SPR) has the highest benefit-to-capital ratio and is applied at the greatest possible rate to minimize the use of the tools with lower benefit-to-capital ratios. The circuit owner should choose an aggressive splice replacement regime to minimize capital cost and provide the highest level of reliability. An improved version of unsustained pressure rejuvenation (UPR) is applied to that small population of cables, which cannot be injected with the more robust (40 years of reliable life extension), sustained pressure approach. The improved unsustained pressure rejuvenation process eliminates the soak period, eliminates the risk of injection port flashover, and provides life extension of 20 years. While 20 years is half of the more robust injection approach, the benefit-to-cost ratio is still superior to replacement. The number of cables rejuvenated is maximized, so that the most capital intensive rehabilitation option, replacement, can be minimized. Together, these elements provide the maximum reliability benefit with the lowest capital and lowest capital overhead expenditures. 6 AUTHORS Glen J. Bertini is the President, CEO, and Chairman of Novinium, Inc. He has spent the last two decades working with cable rejuvenation technology beginning with its development at Dow Corning in 1985 and continuing through its commercialization and growth to over 80 million feet of cable rejuvenated so far. Mr. Bertini was employed by Dow Corning, a silicon chemical manufacturer, where he was part of a small team that developed and commercialized the first cable rejuvenation products. Mr. Bertini has over 35 articles published and holds a total of 17 patents on cable rejuvenation and related technologies and has 7 more pending. In 1992, he was co-recipient of the prestigious R&D 100 award for cable rejuvenation. Mr. Bertini holds a B.S. in Chemical Engineering from Michigan Technological University, is a Senior Member of the IEEE, a voting member of the ICC, and is a licensed professional engineer. Richard K. Brinton is the Vice President of Business Development of Novinium. He has been responsible for introducing cable rejuvenation to utilities around the world. Brinton has over 30 years experience in business development in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Australia. He has focused his career on the worldwide introduction of new technologies and has gained worldwide experience in industrial processes, machine tools, robotics, and construction. Mr. Brinton holds a B.S. in Industrial Engineering and a B.A. Liberal Arts from the Pennsylvania State University, is a Senior Member of the IEEE, a voting member of the ICC, and is a licensed professional engineer. 7
© Copyright 2024