1. business and industrial

Deloitte CRG
Lunch and Learn:
How to Critically Assess a
13-week Cash Flow Forecast
Deloitte Transactions and Business Analytics LLP
How to Critically Assess a
13-week Cash Flow Forecast
Overview of The 13-week Cash Flow
• What is it?
Ø A tactical financial tool to help companies manage short-term liquidity
• When is a Company (typically) required to create one?
Ø As part of the forbearance agreement
• What purposes does it serve?
Ø Provides greater liquidity visibility and a timeframe/runway for restructuring
• What deliverables are submitted to the stakeholders?
Ø 13-week cash flow forecast (summary level)
Ø Borrowing base (if applicable)
Ø Weekly forecast vs. actual (i.e., Variance Report)
• How does the 13-week cash flow compare to an integrated business plan model?
Ø Tactical vs. strategic view of the situation
Ø Indirect in integrated model vs. direct method in 13-week cash flow
2
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13-week Cash Flow Forecast Example
Week Count
Days
Week Ending
Sales and Receipts
Operating Disbursements
Non-operating Disbursements
Revolver and Availability
0
18-Jan
7
25-Jan
Total
Projection Period
14
21
28 …. 77
1-Feb
8-Feb
15-Feb … 5-Apr
84
12-Apr
Total
Total Sales
2,000
6,500
-
2,950
…………..
-
30,450
Cash Receipt
Operating Receipt
Excess Inventory Receipt
3,500
5,000
500
5,000
…………..
…………..
1,750
36,200
1,500
Total Receipt
3,500
5,000
500
5,000
…………..
1,750
37,700
Disbursement
Vendor Payment
Gross Payroll
Rent and Utilities
Equipment Leases
Property Tax
General Insurance
Other
2,000
863
25
50
3,750
288
25
50
963
225
500
38
50
1,000
288
25
50
…………..
…………..
…………..
…………..
…………..
…………..
…………..
2,950
863
25
50
22,530
8,063
925
1,500
4,000
375
650
Total Op. Disbursements
2,938
4,113
1,775
1,363
…………..
3,888
38,043
Net Operating Cash Flow
563
888
(1,275)
3,638
…………..
(2,138)
(343)
Non-operating Disbursement
Interest Payment
Capital Expenditure
Professional Fee
125
125
376
125
100
125
…………..
…………..
…………..
125
1,349
4,500
300
Total Non-op. Disbursements
125
125
601
125
…………..
125
6,149
Net Cash Flow
438
763
(1,876)
3,513
…………..
(2,263)
(6,491)
Revolver roll-forward
Beginning revolver
Add: draw
Minus: Paydown
20,500
(438)
20,063
(763)
19,300
1,876
-
21,176
(3,513)
…………..
…………..
…………..
24,729
2,263
-
20,500
18,218
(11,727)
Ending revolver
20,063
19,300
21,176
17,663
…………..
26,991
26,991
Availability (**)
2,938
3,586
1,824
3,537
…………..
(5,308)
(*) Check outstanding is as of Jan 14, 2013
(**) Availability is the difference between revolver (after covering float) and the lower of borrowing base/facility limit of $25,000
3
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Borrowing Base Example
Week Count
Days
Week Ending
Accounts
Receivable
Inventory
Accounts Receivable
Ending A/R
Ineligible
7
25-Jan
Projection Period
14
21
1-Feb
8-Feb
28 …. 77
15-Feb … 5-Apr
84
12-Apr
13,500
(270)
15,000
(300)
14,500
(290)
12,450
(249)
…………..
…………..
9,250
(185)
13,230
14,700
14,210
12,201
…………..
9,065
Collateral A/R
85%
11,246
12,495
12,079
10,371
…………..
7,705
Inventory
Ending Inventory
Ineligible
5%
33,505
(670)
29,880
(598)
32,318
(646)
30,775
(616)
…………..
…………..
37,200
(744)
32,835
29,282
31,671
30,160
…………..
36,456
16,417
14,641
15,836
15,080
…………..
18,228
16,417
14,641
15,836
15,080
…………..
18,228
Total Collateral Value
Minus: Open L/C
Total Borrowing Base
27,663
(2,250)
25,413
27,136
(2,250)
24,886
27,914
(2,250)
25,664
25,451
(2,250)
23,201
…………..
…………..
…………..
25,933
(2,250)
23,683
Availability Calculation
Lower of Borrowing Base or Limit
25,000
24,886
25,000
23,201
…………..
23,683
Ending Revolver
Plus: check outstanding (float) (*)
20,063
2,000
19,300
2,000
21,176
2,000
17,663
2,000
…………..
…………..
26,991
2,000
Ending Revolver (after covering float)
22,063
21,300
23,176
19,663
…………..
28,991
Eligible Inventory
Collateral Inv - Applied
Revolver
and
Availability
2%
Eligible A/R
Collateral Inv
Limit at
Total Collateral
Value
0
18-Jan
$
50%
18,500
Availability (**)
2,938
3,586
1,824
3,537
…………..
(5,308)
(*) Check outstanding is as of Jan 14, 2013
(**) Availability is the difference between ending revolver (after covering float) and the lower of borrowing base or facility limit of $25,000
4
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Weekly Forecast vs. Actual Variance Analysis Example
Current Week
Notes
Cumulative
1-week w.e. Jan 18
4-wks w.e. Dec 28 to Jan 18
Forecast Actual Variance Forecast Actual Variance
Line Items
(same as 13-week
Cash Flow)
Variance Testing
(if applicable)
5
Total Sales
2,000
1,850
(150)
12,800
12,100
(700)
Cash Receipt
Operating Receipt
Excess Inventory Receipt
3,500
-
3,100
-
(400)
-
11,900
-
9,850
-
(2,050)
-
Total Receipt
3,500
3,100
(400)
11,900
9,850
(2,050)
Disbursement
Vendor Payment
Gross Payroll
Rent and Utilities
Equipment Leases
Property Tax
General Insurance
Other
2,000
863
25
50
1,800
830
10
50
35
200
33
15
(50)
15
7,500
2,450
300
500
38
200
6,600
2,510
325
510
41
575
900
(60)
(25)
(10)
(3)
(375)
Total Op. Disbursements
2,938
2,725
213
10,988
10,561
427
Net Operating Cash Flow
563
375
(188)
912
(711)
(1,623)
Non-operating Disbursement
Interest Payment
Capital Expenditure
Professional Fee
125
-
175
-
(50)
-
420
500
100
465
1,050
115
(45)
(550)
(15)
Total Non-op. Disbursements
125
175
(50)
1,020
1,630
(610)
Net Cash Flow
438
200
(238)
(108)
(2,341)
(2,233)
12,008
12,191
(183)
Variance Testing
Lower of 10% of Total 4-wk Cumulative Disbr
Variance Explanation
(for 1-week w.e. Jan 18)
Timing issue on ….
Paperwork mismatch ….
Certain disputed items not paid
Overtime was slightly lower
Lower-than-projected electricity
One item wasn't paid ….
One machine broke down …
-1.5% = Favorable variance
(% of forecasted disbursement)
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Component Breakdown of the 13-week Cash Flow Forecast
• Sales and collections:
Sales Recorded
in A/R (Majority)
Backlog Sales
Not in A/R
Current
Projected Sales
“Known” Future (end of backlog)
Ø Main components: A/R, backlog and projected sales
Ø Key A/R considerations:
q Net vs. gross amounts, including reserves and offsets
q Collection terms: how current assumptions compare to historical pattern
q Invoicing process: level of complexity
Ø Backlog and future sales considerations:
q Assumptions for seasonality patterns and new customers/contracts
q Customer composition (multiple small customers, few major customers, etc)
q Progress billing or percentage of completion
In general, companies have less control over sales and collections
than over disbursements
If there is a collection issue, what does the Company plan?
6
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Component Breakdown on the 13-week Cash Flow Forecast
• Disbursements – trade vendor:
Ø Understand the purchase lifecycle of the Company
q Long lead time or not
q International or domestic sourcing
Ø In cash flow forecasting, vendor payments are dependent on the
following:
q Purchase assumptions (typically driven by sales)
q Inventory roll-forward
q A/P roll-forward
Ø General vendor payment considerations:
q How much each vendor is owed
q Future orders the Company will need from each vendor
q What potential substitutes are available
q How much cash is available
q Contractual term
7
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Component Breakdown on the 13-week Cash Flow Forecast
• Disbursements – non trade vendor:
Ø Payroll:
q Whether trust fund payment is handled properly or not
q For projected headcount changes, consider severance/healthcare “tail” payments
Ø Other:
q Seasonal actual payments vs. weekly accruals, such as property tax
q Whether all insurance policies are paid up to current or not
q Other trust-fund type payments are administered properly, such as sales tax
• Working capital and borrowing base:
Ø Do the account movements make sense
q For example: A/R does not go to negative amount; AP does not double
Ø Does A/P Aging position improve or deteriorate
q If the Company does not provide A/P roll-forward, request one or do a quick backof-the-envelope calculation based on cost of materials as % of sales
Ø Borrowing base projection should mirror the actual (historical) certificate
Ø Availability / liquidity clearly displayed
8
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Understand the assumptions and corresponding results
• The cash flow forecast should provide a clear picture of liquidity:
Ø In case of a negative cash situation:
q How much is the weekly cash burn rate?
q How long is the cash “runway”?
Ø In case of a positive cash situation:
q Is it due to improving operations or to balance sheet liquidation?
Ø How are vendors being treated in the forecast?
q Is there any pay-down of A/P?
q How are communication with critical vendors being handled?
• If there are major assumptions that are contingent in nature
Ø Are the assumptions supportable/realistic?
Ø What is the sensitivity (downside scenario) of the contingent
assumptions?
9
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Understand the assumptions and corresponding results (continued)
• Have assumptions for major business changes been properly reflected?
Ø Cost and timing of closing a plant/business operation
Ø How borrowing base is impacted; such as inventory liquidation
• Use other financial data points to sanity-check the cash flow forecast:
Ø Backlog shipments should influence future collections
Ø Check collections projections against historical DSO, if possible
Ø If the Company provided a three-statement model, it should be close (or
directionally the same) with the 13 week cash flow
Ø Sanity-check (high-level) the relationship between EBITDA and cash flow
10
Three-Statement Model
(based on P&L)
13-week Cash Flow
EBITDA
± Working Capital Changes
- Capex
Cash Inflow (Operations)
- Cash Outflow (Operations)
Operating Cash Flow
- Capex
Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Understand the assumptions and corresponding results (continued)
Ø Use components of P&L expenses to sanity-check the cash flow
q Material vendor payment goes hand-in-hand with COS of material
q Certain accrual reflects total payment for the whole fiscal year
• Use the weekly variance analysis to analyze and probe deeper:
Ø Ask the Company to prepare weekly and cumulative variance analyses
Ø Compare results to Company data presented in prior weeks
Ø Monitor cumulative variance by line item and observe the trends
• Develop a discipline of scheduling a routine communication/call on cash flow
(such as every week)
• Reforecasting process:
Ø Frequency could be every 4 weeks (not every week)
Ø Incorporate revisions learned as a result of the weekly variance analysis
Cash flow assumptions and results have to go hand-in-hand
with the current business operation
11
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Leading practices in preparing a 13-week Cash Flow – Conceptual
• Verify that the Company documents financial assumptions
Ø The forecast should reflect current state, not “pretty rainbow” scenario
Ø If a major change is projected, verify that the Company has a reasonable
supporting business or operational reason
• The borrowing base is linked to the cash flow forecast
Ø Roll-forward of working capital accounts that is easy to follow
Ø Cash availability is displayed (with and without float calculation)
• Always perform analysis on a “book” basis, not a “bank” basis
Ø Disbursements on “book” basis: checks written that week
Ø Disbursements on “bank” basis: checks cleared that week
• Other considerations
Ø Reasonable conservatism assumption is normal
Ø Company should not play the “float” game – availability should cover float
12
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Leading practices in preparing a 13-week Cash Flow – Modeling
• Summary deliverables:
Ø 13-week cash flow forecast (summary level) in direct cash flow format
Ø Borrowing base (if applicable)
Ø Weekly forecast vs. actual (i.e., Variance Report)
• Disbursements section:
Ø Clear breakdown of major items (7-10 line items, not 1-2), see slide 3
Ø Payroll and periodic payments (rent/lease) are segregated from vendor
payments
Ø Seasonal (large) items such as property tax should be included
• General modeling errors:
Ø Certain categories go negative, such as accounts receivable
Ø Revolver draw does not have a limit
Ø Accounts payable increases significantly
Ø Mathematical errors, row and columns do not tick and tie
13
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Certain Items Applied Specifically to Chapter 11 Proceeding
Bankruptcy
Topics
Description
Impact on Cash Flow
§503(b)(9)
Claim
Goods received in the ordinary course within 20 days
before petition date
• Administrative priority claim
• Carve-out to availability
Adequate
Protection
Payments to pre-petition secured creditors
• Part of DIP negotiation
• Should be included (if agreed)
Personal
Property tax
Taxes on personal property such as equipment
60-day grace period on payment
Critical
Vendors
Payment of a prepetition debt to certain (critical) key vendors and
vendors providing items covered under PACA
Value received (post-petition term)
vs. amount paid
Utility
Deposits
§366 of the U.S. BK Code requires a cash deposit (usually 2-4
weeks)
Will be reimbursed at emergence
Post-petition
Vendors
Post-petition goods or services in the ordinary course
• Administrative priority claim
• Typically COD term
Professional
Fees
Subject to a holdback and fee application procedure
• More professionals
• Carve-out to availability
§364 DIP
Financing
Fund post-petition operations (super priority administrative lien)
• Subject to covenant testing
• Has to submit periodic budget
Rent/Lease
Rent or equipment lease payments
Cure amount to be paid at
emergence
It is a common strategy to develop a cash reserve prior to filing for Chapter 11 to
anticipate unforeseen circumstances
14
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Presenters’ Biographies
Team Biographies
Contact Information:
550 S. Tryon Street, Suite 2500
Charlotte, NC 28202
D: +1.704.227.7948
F: +1.877.327.0201
C: +1.312.401.6723
Email: ckuoni@deloitte.com
Industries:
●
●
●
●
●
Chemicals Manufacturing
●
●
●
●
●
●
Health Care
Construction
Distribution
Financial Services
Food Manufacturing and
Services
Charles F. Kuoni III
Director
Deloitte CRG
Chuck Kuoni specializes in maximizing value for distressed, high profile companies through operational and
financial improvement initiatives. With more than 25 years of experience, Mr. Kuoni provides strong leadership
to companies in complex situations. He has led more than 50 corporate restructurings, and he has served in
chief executive officer (CEO)/president, chief restructuring officer (CRO), and chief financial officer (CFO) roles,
as well as a consultant to management.
Mr. Kuoni has worked in a variety of turnaround and crisis management environments, providing credible advice and counsel to
companies and constituents. He assists clients to identify significant operational improvement initiatives and restructure their
balance sheets to achieve sustainable profitability and support long-term growth. Significant engagements include:
● President of a $100 million 40-location convenience store chain located in southern Illinois
● President of a subsidiary of a NYSE-listed company facing substantial environmental litigation and labor issues, where he
Manufacturing
managed the subsidiary through a Chapter 11 proceeding to resolve the environmental litigation; company successfully
emerged from Chapter 11 and continues to be number one in its market
Mining
Professional Services
● Advisor to an operator of six underground coal mines in refinancing its senior debt and reducing its operating costs;
company’s senior debt was successfully refinanced
Retail
● Advisor to a private equity company on acquisition due diligence and cost savings opportunities of a multi-national company.
Trucking
Developed a 100-day transition plan to monitor progress in achieving cost savings.
● Executive vice president and CFO for a $450 million health care company, where he filed SEC reports and negotiated the
refinancing process for the bank term and revolver debt
● Financial advisor for a $950 million textile manufacturer, where he helped lead the pre-negotiation process of the Chapter 11
Education:
B.A., Texas Christian University
M.B.A., Kellogg School of
Management at Northwestern
filing and provided assistance during the bankruptcy proceedings to rationalize the company’s business operations
● Developed cost improvement initiatives for a $4 billion company with multiple interests, where he was instrumental in the
negotiations with the secured lender group, including more than 40 financial institutions
Mr. Kuoni is also a Certified Turnaround Professional. In addition, he is a member of the AICPA, the Turnaround Management
Association, and the American Bankruptcy Institute.
This biography may refer to client engagements performed prior to joining Deloitte Transactions and Business Analytics (“DTBA ”) in the Deloitte Corporate Restructuring Group (“Deloitte CRG”).
22
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Team Biographies
Contact Information:
2200 Ross Avenue, Suite 1600
Dallas, TX 75201
D: +1.214.840.1669
F: +1.877.299.7388
C: +1.214.551.5742
Email: shadiwijaya@deloitte.com
Industries:
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Agribusiness
Soegiono Hadiwijaya
Senior Vice President
Deloitte CRG
Soegiono “Sugi” Hadiwijaya has more than 10 years of combined experience in financial services and
turnaround management. He has provided financial advisory and operational restructuring services both out of
court and during Chapter 11 proceedings, assisting companies with tasks such as cash management, securing
of financing, business plan assessment, M&A activities, and financial modeling.
Energy
Mr. Hadiwijaya is particularly skilled at helping companies better their value through profitability analyses, cash flow projections,
budgeting, and strategic planning. Mr. Hadiwijaya also authored and served as lead instructor for Cash is King, the Deloitte CRG
nationwide training program on 13-week cash flow forecast and liquidity management.
Health and Wellness
A few noteworthy engagements include:
Consumer Products
Manufacturing
● Assisted an $8.5 billion poultry processor during its Chapter 11 restructuring process, where he managed cash and liquidity
Retail
Telecommunications
Transportation
as part of the DIP arrangement, created the five-year business plan and financial projection, worked with management on
financial analyses regarding operational strategies and assisted in the negotiations of the restructuring plan, exit financing
and mediation proceeding on chicken plant closure
● Provided financial advisory services for a specialty custom-engineered steel enclosure manufacturer, where he managed
cash flow, developed business plan and assisted in operational turnaround efforts such as developing project dashboard and
assessing sales quote model
● Provided financial advisory services for a regional highway contractor, where he managed cash flow, led negotiations with
stakeholders on liquidity matters and assisted in lender negotiations
● Managed expert witness engagements in regards to post-confirmation cram-down interest rate for commercial real estate
portfolio, where he developed the expert report and created analyses on Till methodology application
● Designed a complex cash-collections model and conducted assessment on cash-acceleration initiatives during the
Education:
B.A., The University of Texas at
Austin
prepackaged bankruptcy filing of a $1 billion health club chain with more than 300 locations nationwide
● Performed a four-wall store profitability analysis for a $600 million Northeast-based arts and crafts retailer, where he analyzed
store profitability trends and presented recommendations to management on the store footprint and closing plan
Mr. Hadiwijaya also holds certifications as a Chartered Financial Analyst, a Certified Insolvency Restructuring Advisor (CIRA),
and a Certified Distressed Business Valuation (CDBV). In addition, he started and co-leads the Nextgen/Young Professional
initiative of Turnaround Management Association in the DFW area, and is involved in a joint education/mentoring program with
the University of Texas at Dallas on its restructuring/turnaround courses.
This biography may refer to client engagements performed prior to joining Deloitte Transactions and Business Analytics (“DTBA ”) in the Deloitte Corporate Restructuring Group (“Deloitte CRG”).
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About Deloitte CRG
Deloitte acquired substantially all of the assets of CRG Partners Group LLC to grow its financial restructuring, turnaround management and bankruptcy reorganization capabilities.
Deloitte’s Reorganization Services group now operates under the name Deloitte Corporate Restructuring Group (Deloitte CRG). Prior to the acquisition, CRG Partners Group LLC
was a New York-based, leading provider of operational and financial restructuring services. Collectively, the member firms of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited have more than
1,000 professionals providing restructuring services and are repeatedly ranked as one of the top global non-investment bank bankruptcy advisors by The Deal.
This presentation includes references to certain engagements provided by Deloitte Transactions and Business Analytics (DTBA) as well as matters in which Deloitte CRG
professionals provided services while employed at CRG Partners Group LLC (CRG Partners).
About Deloitte
As used in this document, “Deloitte” means Deloitte Transactions and Business Analytics LLP, an affiliate of Deloitte Financial Advisory Services LLP. Deloitte Transactions and
Business Analytics LLP is not a certified public accounting firm. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its
subsidiaries. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.
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Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited