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Why invest in gas? Benefits of natural gas infrastructure for the North West
WDC Policy Briefing no. 5
This file contains the source data and calculations for the estimates and figures in the Policy Briefing
If you have any queries please contact helenmchenry@wdc.ie
Contents
Formulae Carbon Charge (2)
Carbon Charge (3)
Fuel Cost Save Formulae (4)
Fuel Cost Save (5)
Tables Emissions Bth (6)
I&C Carbon Emission Saving (7)
Domestic (8)
Est Demand I&C Dom (9)
Domestic Carbon Emission (10)
note to file (1)
L
A
B
C
D
E
To calculate the amount of Carbon Charge paid in 11 North Western Towns compared to that which would be paid if using natural gas (Policy Briefing page
1 10)
2 Calcuations for both I/C and Domestic
3
4 Data on fuel use by I/C users is taken from Work sheet on fuel cost savings estimate.
This combined data for all I/C users (large with medium and small) to estimate percentage rate of change from different fuel types (see fuel cost worksheet for full
5 explanation).
6
7
MFO
Gas oil
Electricity
check
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
All I/C (proportions of estimated load and
proportions of fuel types combined.
0.69260124940537
0.242584554123585
0.064814196471045
1
To calculate carbon charge payable total estimated load for 11 North West Towns from Gaslink New Towns Analysis Phase III is used.
Conversion of carbon charges as given in Finance Act into carbon charge in € per MWh
Rates used in this calculation are from Schedule 2A Finance Act 2010.
The Act does not provide specify rates for all different forms of fuel oil so it is assumed that Gas oil is the same rates as 'other fuel oil'
16
17 (as is indicated in table below which provided details for carbon charge returns to revenue) and that MFO is the rate for 'fuel oil (as also in table from revenue.ie)
18 Natural gas
Rate
19
20
21
22
23
24
Rate €3.07 as stated in Finance Act **para 67
3.07
MFO
Charge is €45.95 per 1,000 litres (Finance Act 2010 Schedule 2A) which is 4595c per 1,000
NCV^ (Net Calorific Value (i.e. how many kWh of energy from a litre) of HFO^^ is 10.786 kWh per litre or 10,786 kWh per 1,000 litres
25 Therefore carbon charge (c/kWh) is 4595/10786 =4595/10786
26
27
28
29
30
€/MWh
Converting to € per MWh
=B25*1000/100
c/kWh
€/MWh
Gas Oil
Charge is €41.30 per 1,000 litres (Finance Act 2010 Schedule 2A) which is 4130c per 1,000
NCV^ (Net Calorific Value (i.e. how many kWh of energy from a litre) of Gas Oil is 10.169 kWh per litre or 10,169 kWh per 1,000 litres
31 Therefore carbon charge (c/kWh) is 4130/10169 =4130/10169
c/kWh
32 Converting to € per MWh
33
€/MWh
=B31*1000/100
Formulae carbon charge (2)
F
A
B
C
34 Kerosene
35 Charge is €38.02 per 1,000 litres (Finance Act 2010 Schedule 2A) which is 3802c per 1,000
36 NCV^ (Net Calorific Value (i.e. how many kWh of energy from a litre) of Kerosene 9.821 kWh per litre or 9,821 kWh per 1,000 litres
37 Therefore carbon charge is 3802/9821
38
39
40
41
42
Converting to € per MWh
=3802/9821
c/kWh
=B37*1000/100
€/MWh
D
E
LPG
Charge is €24.64 per 1,000 litres Finance Act 2010 which is 2464c per 1,000 litres
NCV^ (Net Calorific Value (i.e. how many kWh of energy from a litre) of LPG is 6.84 kWh per litre or 6840 kWh per 1,000 litres
43 Therefore carbon charge is 2464/6840
=2464/6840
c/kWh
44 Converting to € per MWh
45
=B43*1000/100
€/MWh
46 ^ NCV from SEAI See below (end of worksheet)
47 ^^NCV not given for MFO. HFO rate assumed.
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
Carbon charge rates (€ per MWh)
Natural gas
MFO
Gas oil
Electricity*
Distillate (Kerosene)
Peat**
Coal**
LPG
€ per MWh
=B19
=B26
=B32
0
=B38
0
0
3.6
* No carbon charge
60 **carbon charge not yet introduced. Currently no carbon charge
61
Town
Estimated
Industrial and
Commercial
Annual
Consumption in
Carbon tax payable if fuels used in proportions
above €
Carbon tax payable if Difference €
natural gas were used for one year
€
62
63 TOTAL
570601
=(B63*$B$8*$B$26)+(B63*$C$8*$B$32)+(B63*$D$8*$B$53)
=B63*$B$50
64
65 If I/C users were able to switch to natural gas then the overall carbon charge payable by I/C users would be €494,032 less than currently
66
Formulae carbon charge (2)
=C63-D63
F
A
B
C
D
E
67
68 DOMESTIC/RESIDENTIAL
69 Residental users expected to switch to natural gas from fuels in percentages below
70
Distillates
Coal
71 Residential
0.7
0.1
72
73
Town
New Housing Load Carbon tax payable if fuels used in proportions above
(Forecast Summary, €
year 10) (MWh)
Electricity
0.1
Peat
0.1
Carbon tax payable if
Difference €
natural gas were used € for one year
74
75 TOTAL
139447
=(B75*B71*B54)+(B75*C71*B56)+(B75*D71*B53)+(B75*E71*B55) 428102.29
=C75-D75
76
If Domestic users were able to switch to natural gas then the overall carbon charge payable bynew domestic connections users would be €50,214 less than currently
paid (as carbon charges not on coal, peat or electricity)
77
78
79
80 Overall in the 11 NW towns if both I/C users and Domestic users could switch to natural gas the amount of carbon tax payable would be less
81
=E63+E75
82 Notes
83
84 What net calorific values do you use?
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
Kerosene
Crude Oil
Gasoline(Petrol)
Diesel /Gasoil
Heavy Fuel Oil
LPG
Biodiesel
Bioethanol
Pure Plant Oil
toe/tonne
1.0556
1.0226
1.065
1.0344
0.9849
1.1263
0.8901
0.6304
0.8907
kWh/litre
9.821
11.146
9.348
10.169
10.786
6.84
9.113
5.865
9.53
Source: http://www.seai.ie/Publications/Statistics_Publications/Statistics_FAQ/data_and_data_manipulation_FAQ/#What_net_calorific
96
97
98 Rates used in this calculation are from Schedule 2A Finance Act 2010.
The Act does not provide specify rates for all different forms of fuel oil so it is assumed that Gas oil is the same rates as 'other fuel oil' (as is indicated in table below
99 which provided details for carbon charge returns to revenue) and that MFO is the rate for 'fuel oil (as also in table from revenue.ie).
Formulae carbon charge (2)
F
A
B
C
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
Source:
www.revenue.ie/en/tax/excise/forms/refund113 mineral-oil-tax-carbon-charge.pdf
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
Formulae carbon charge (2)
D
E
F
A
B
C
D
E
To calculate the amount of Carbon Charge paid in 11 North Western Towns compared to that which would be paid if using natural
1 gas (Policy Briefing page 10)
2 Calcuations for both I/C and Domestic
3
4 Data on fuel use by I/C users is taken from Work sheet on fuel cost savings estimate.
This combined data for all I/C users (large with medium and small) to estimate percentage rate of change from different fuel types (see fuel
5 cost worksheet for full explanation).
6
7
MFO
Gas oil
Electricity
check
All I/C (proportions of estimated load and
8 proportions of fuel types combined
69.3%
24.3%
6.5%
100.0%
9
10 To calculate carbon charge payable total estimated load for 11 North West Towns from Gaslink New Towns Analysis Phase III is used
11
12 Conversion of carbon charges as given in Finance Act into carbon charge in € per MWh.
13
14 Rates used in this calculation are from Schedule 2A Finance Act 2010.
15 The Act does not provide specify rates for all different forms of fuel oil so it is assumed that Gas oil is the same rates as 'other fuel oil'
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
(as is indicated in table below which provided details for carbon charge returns to revenue) and that MFO is the rate for 'fuel oil (as also in
table from revenue.ie)
Natural gas
Rate
Rate €3.07 as stated in Finance Act **para 67
3.07 €/MWh
MFO
Charge is €45.95 per 1,000 litres (Finance Act 2010 Schedule 2A) which is 4595c per 1,000
NCV^ (Net Calorific Value (i.e. how many kWh of energy from a litre) of HFO^^ is 10.786 kWh per litre or 10,786 kWh per 1,000 litres
Therefore carbon charge (c/kWh) is 4595/10786
0.426 c/kWh
Converting to € per MWh
4.26 €/MWh
Gas Oil
Charge is €41.30 per 1,000 litres (Finance Act 2010 Schedule 2A) which is 4130c per 1,000
NCV^ (Net Calorific Value (i.e. how many kWh of energy from a litre) of Gas Oil is 10.169 kWh per litre or 10,169 kWh per 1,000 litres
Therefore carbon charge (c/kWh) is 4130/10169
0.406 c/kWh
Converting to € per MWh
4.06 €/MWh
Kerosene
Charge is €38.02 per 1,000 litres (Finance Act 2010 Schedule 2A) which is 3802c per 1,000
NCV^ (Net Calorific Value (i.e. how many kWh of energy from a litre) of Kerosene 9.821 kWh per litre or 9,821 kWh per 1,000 litres
Therefore carbon charge is 3802/9821
Converting to € per MWh
0.387 c/kWh
3.87 €/MWh
Carbon Charge (3)
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
A
B
C
D
LPG
Charge is €24.64 per 1,000 litres Finance Act 2010 which is 2464c per 1,000 litres
NCV^ (Net Calorific Value (i.e. how many kWh of energy from a litre) of LPG is 6.84 kWh per litre or 6840 kWh per 1,000 litres
Therefore carbon charge is 2464/6840
Converting to € per MWh
0.360 c/kWh
3.60 €/MWh
^ NCV from SEAI See below (end of worksheet)
^^NCV not given for MFO. HFO rate assumed.
Carbon charge rates (€ per MWh)
€ per MWh
Natural gas
3.07
MFO
4.26
Gas oil
4.06
Electricity*
0
Distillate (Kerosene)
3.87
Peat**
0
Coal**
0
LPG
3.6
* No carbon charge
**carbon charge not yet introduced. Currently no carbon charge
Town
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
E
TOTAL
Estimated Industrial and
Carbon tax payable if Carbon tax
Difference € for one
Commercial Annual
fuels used in
payable if natural year
Consumption in year 7(MWh) proportions above €
gas were used €
570,601
€2,245,777
€1,751,745
€494,032
If I/C users were able to switch to natural gas then the overall carbon charge payable by I/C users would be €494,032 less than currently
DOMESTIC/RESIDENTIAL
Residental users expected to switch to natural gas from fuels in percentages below
Distillates
Coal
Residential
70%
Town
10%
Electricity
10%
Peat
10%
New Housing Load (Forecast Carbon tax payable if Carbon tax
Difference € for one
Summary, year 10) (MWh)
fuels used in
payable if natural year
proportions above €
gas were used €
139,447
€377,888
€428,102
-€50,214
73
74 TOTAL
75
If Domestic users were able to switch to natural gas then the overall carbon charge payable bynew domestic connections users would be
76 €50,214 less than currently paid (as carbon charges not on coal, peat or electricity)
(though as noted elsewhere actual fuel savings are higher)
77
78
Carbon Charge (3)
A
B
C
D
E
Overall in the 11 NW towns if both I/C users and Domestic users could switch to natural gas the amount of carbon tax
79 payable would be less
€443,819
80
81 Notes
82
83
84
85 What net calorific values do you use?
86
toe/tonne
kWh/litre
87 Kerosene
1.0556
9.821
88 Crude Oil
1.0226
11.146
89 Gasoline(Petrol)
1.065
9.348
90 Diesel /Gasoil
1.0344
10.169
0.9849
10.786
91 Heavy Fuel Oil
92 LPG
1.1263
6.84
93 Biodiesel
0.8901
9.113
94 Bioethanol
0.6304
5.865
95 Pure Plant Oil
0.8907
9.53
96
Source: http://www.seai.ie/Publications/Statistics_Publications/Statistics_FAQ/data_and_data_manipulation_FAQ/#What_net_calorific
97
98 Rates used in this calculation are from Schedule 2A Finance Act 2010.
The Act does not provide specify rates for all different forms of fuel oil so it is assumed that Gas oil is the same rates as 'other fuel oil' (as is
indicated in table below which provided details for carbon charge returns to revenue) and that MFO is the rate for 'fuel oil (as also in table
99 from revenue.ie).
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115 Source: www.revenue.ie/en/tax/excise/forms/refund-mineral-oil-tax-carbon-charge.pdf
Carbon Charge (3)
A
B
C
1 Fuel cost savings for I/C users in 11 towns, *Large and Small and medium users
D
E
F
G
2 (Policy Briefing page 7)
3
4 To estimate fuel to be switched from Gas to the North West* study used. Percentage estimates given in report Appendix G
5 *Fingleton White et al., 2007, Gas to the Northwest Feasibility Study commissioned by DCMNR.
6
Assumptions that 'fuel oil' is Medium Fuel Oil (MFO), that Distillates are Gas oil; that the electricity rate payable is SEAI medium band (for 500-2000 MWh
7 per annum). Natural gas rate Band I2 >=1000<10,000 GJ per annum
8 Prices for MFO and Gas oil and Electricity from SEAI Fuel cost comparison Commercial/ Industrial Fuels Comparison of Energy Costs 01 July 2011
9
10 To estimate fuel to be switched from (from Gas to the NW study). Percentage estimates given in report Appendix G
11
12 Users expected to switch to natural gas from fuels in percentages below
13
MFO
Gas oil
Electricity
14 Large I/C users
0.9
0.05
0.05
15 Medium & Small users
0.2
0.7
0.1
16
17
18 Then to Estimate proportion of Large and Small and Medium users.
19
Gaslink New towns analysis gives total estimated load for each town. However while it lists the number of large users it does not give information of size of
large loads. It was therefore necessary to use the figures from the Gas to the NW study to estiamte proportion of load which could be categorised as large
(and small and medium). The report gave potential loads estimated for Large, Medium and Small I/C for two different route options. Route A included
Castlebar, Route C included Ballyhaunis, Claremorris and Ballaghaderreen. An average of the two routes was taken to give an estimate of the proportion
20 of the load which can be considered Large I/C and that which can be considered Small and Medium I/C.
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Large I/C
Medium I/C
Small I/C
Total
Route A (k therms)
3967
880
1412
=SUM(B23:B25)
%
=B23/$B$26
=B24/$B$26
=B25/$B$26
=B26/$B$26
Route C (k therms)
7679
846
1401
=SUM(D23:D25)
%
=D23/$D$26
=D24/$D$26
=D25/$D$26
=D26/$D$26
Average%
=(C23+E23)/2
=(C24+E24)/2
=(C25+E25)/2
=(C26+E26)/2
29 Then combine data for all I/C users (large with medium and small) to estimate percentage rate of change from different fuel types.
30
31
MFO
Gas oil
Electricity
check
All I/C (proportions of estimated
load and proportions of fuel
32 types combined..
=(B14*$G$23)+(B15*$G$24) =(C14*$G$23)+(C15*$G$24) =(D14*$G$23)+(D15*$G$24) =B32+C32+D32
Fuel cost save formulae (4)
Combining
M&S I/C
=F23
=F24+F25
H
A
B
C
D
E
F
33
34 To Calculate Fuel Cost savings total estimated load for 11 North West Towns from Gaslink New Towns Analysis Phase III is used.
Town
Estimated Industrial
and Commercial
Annual Consumption
35
in year 7 (MWh)
36 Ballyshannon
9588
37 Bundoran
10349
38 Donegal
43934
39 Lifford
4650
40 Letterkenny
50969
41 Sligo
70379
42 Boyle
6310
43 Carrick on Shannon
248744
44 Roscommon
32820
45 Strokestown
4407
Ballaghaderreen
46
88451
47 TOTAL
=SUM(B36:B46)
G
48
49
MFO
Price c/kWh (SEAI I/C fuel
50 comparison July 2011)
8.09
Gas Oil
9.16
Electricity*
12.75
Natural gas^
4.25
51
52
To Estimate fuel cost savings if switch to natural gas
Fuel Cost Savings
Proportion of load for each fuel
54 MWh
Price c/kWh (SEAI I/C fuel
55 comparison July 2011) less
53
MFO
Gas Oil
Electricity*
Total for 3
fuels
Natural gas*
=B47*B32
=B47*C32
=B47*D32
=B54+C54+D54
=B50*0.8
=C50*0.8
=D50
=E50
=C55*1000/100
=D55*1000/100
=F55*1000/100
=C54*C56
=D54*D56
56 Price €/MWh
=B55*1000/100
57
Cost of estimated load for mix of
58 3 fuels
=B54*B56
59
=B58+C58+D58 =F54*F56
Diff between
cost of natl gas
& alternative
fuels
=E58-F58
60 * Band IC .=500<2000 MWh per annum
**20% rebate assumed, SEAI Fuel cost comparison Note 2:'Rebate may reduce the fuel cost in the region of 20-25% depending on various market
61 conditions
62 ^Natural gas rate Band I2 >=1000<10,000 GJ per annum
63 The estimated annual saving for users in the 11 towns if they could switch to natural gas would be €16,185,416
Fuel cost save formulae (4)
H
1
2
3
4
5
6
A
B
C
D
Fuel cost savings for I/C users in 11 towns, *Large and Small and medium users
(Policy Briefing page 7)
E
F
G
H
To estimate fuel to be switched from Gas to the North West* study used. Percentage estimates given in report Appendix G
*Fingleton White et al., 2007, Gas to the Northwest Feasibility Study commissioned by DCMNR.
Assumptions that 'fuel oil' is Medium Fuel Oil (MFO), that Distillates are Gas oil; that the electricity rate payable is SEAI medium band (for 500-2000 MWh per
7 annum). Natural gas rate Band I2 >=1000<10,000 GJ per annum
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Prices for MFO and Gas oil and Electricity from SEAI Fuel cost comparison Commercial/ Industrial Fuels Comparison of Energy Costs 01 July 2011
To estimate fuel to be switched from (from Gas to the NW study). Percentage estimates given in report Appendix G
Users expected to switch to natural gas from fuels in percentages below
MFO
Gas oil
Large I/C users
90%
5%
Medium & Small users
20%
70%
Electricity
5%
10%
Then to Estimate proportion of Large and Small and Medium users.
Gaslink New towns analysis gives total estimated load for each town. However while it lists the number of large users it does not give information of size of
large loads. It was therefore necessary to use the figures from the Gas to the NW study to estimate proportion of load which could be categorised as large
(and small and medium). The report gave potential loads estimated for Large, Medium and Small I/C for two different route options. Route A included
Castlebar, Route C included Ballyhaunis, Claremorris and Ballaghaderreen. An average of the two routes was taken to give an estimate of the proportion of
20 the load which can be considered Large I/C and that which can be considered Small and Medium I/C.
21
Route C (k
Combining M&S
therms)
I/C
22
Route A (k therms)
%
%
Average%
23 Large I/C
3,967
63%
7,679
77%
70%
70.4%
24 Medium I/C
880
14%
846
9%
11%
25 Small I/C
1,412
23%
1,401
14%
18%
29.6%
26 Total
6,259
100%
9,926
100%
100%
27
28
29 Then combine data for all I/C users (large with medium and small) to estimate percentage rate of change from different fuel types.
30
MFO
Gas oil
Electricity
check
All I/C (proportions of estimated load and
31 proportions of fuel types combined.
69.3%
24.3%
Fuel cost save (5)
6.5%
100.0%
A
B
C
D
E
F
32
33 To Calculate Fuel Cost savings total estimated load for 11 North West Towns from Gaslink New Towns Analysis Phase III is used.
34
Town
Estimated Industrial
and Commercial
Annual Consumption
35
in year 7 (MWh)
36 Ballyshannon
9,588
37 Bundoran
10,349
38 Donegal
43,934
39 Lifford
4,650
40 Letterkenny
50,969
41 Sligo
70,379
42 Boyle
6,310
43 Carrick on Shannon
248,744
44 Roscommon
32,820
45 Strokestown
4,407
46 Ballaghaderreen
88,451
47 TOTAL
570,601
G
H
48
49
MFO
Gas Oil
Electricity*
Natural gas^
Price c/kWh (SEAI I/C fuel
50 comparison July 2011)
51
8.09
9.16
12.75
4.25
52
To Estimate fuel cost savings if switch to natural gas.
53 Fuel Cost Savings
54 Proportion of load for each fuel MWh
55
56
57
58
59
60
Price c/kWh (SEAI I/C fuel comparison
July 2011) less 20%**
Price €/MWh
Cost of estimated load for mix of 3 fuels
MFO
395,199
Gas Oil
138,419
Electricity*
36,983
6.47
€64.72
7.33
€73.28
12.75
€127.50
€25,577,277 €10,143,344
Total for 3
fuels
Difference between cost of
natural gas and alternative
Natural gas*
fuels
570,601
4.25
€42.50
€4,715,338 €40,435,959 €24,250,543
€16,185,416
* Band IC .=500<2000 MWh per annum
**20% rebate assumed, SEAI Fuel cost comparison Note 2:'Rebate may reduce the fuel cost in the region of 20-25% depending on various market
61 conditions.
62 ^Natural gas rate Band I2 >=1000<10,000 GJ per annum
63 The estimated annual saving for users in the 11 towns if they could switch to natural gas would be €16,185,416
Fuel cost save (5)
A
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
Fuel
Medium Fuel Oil (MFO)
Gas Oil
Electricity
Total
Natural gas
Annual Saving
B
C
Estimated load (MWh)
395,199
138,419
36,983
570,601
570,601
D
Price €/MWh*
€64.72
€73.28
€127.50
€42.50
Cost
€25,577,277
€10,143,344
€4,715,338
€40,435,959
€24,250,543
€16,185,416
Fuel cost save (5)
E
F
G
H
A
1 Policy Briefing Page 10
2
3
4
5
B
C
D
E
F
G
Estimate of carbon emission savings if switch to natural gas.
Fuel Cost Savings
6 Proportion of load for each fuel MWh
7 Emissions Factors^ (g CO2/kWh)
8 EF tonnes CO2/MWh
9 Emissions for fuel (t CO2)
MFO
Total for 3 fuels
570,601
Natural gas
138,419
36,983
273.6
263.9
533.0
205.6
0.2736
0.2639
0.5330
0.2056
108,126
36,529
19,712
164,367
Tonnes CO2 saved
annually
Kerosene
Coal
570,601
117,316
47,052
Value (annually) if CO2
€15/t
11
12
13
15 Proportion of load for each fuel MWh
Electricity
395,199
10
14
Gas Oil
Electricity
€705,774
Total for 4
fuels
Peat
97,613
13,945
13,945
13,945
257.0
340.6
533.0
374.4
205.6
17 EF tonnes CO2/MWh
0.2570
0.3406
0.5330
0.3744
0.2056
18 Emissions for fuel (t CO2)
25,087
4,750
7,433
5,221
16 Emissions Factors^ (g CO2/kWh)
139,447
Natural gas
42,490
19
Tonnes CO2 saved annually
13,819
20
21
22
23
Value (annually) if CO2 €15/t
€207,288
Tables emsissions bth (6)
139,447
28,670
A
B
C
D
E
1 Fuel cost savings for I/C users in 11 towns, *Large and Small and medium users
2 (Policy Briefing page 10)
3
4 To estimate fuel to be switched from (from Gas to the NW study). Percentage estimates given in report Appendix G
F
G
Assumptions that 'fuel oil' is Medium Fuel Oil (MFO), that Distillates are Gas oil; that the electricity rate payable is SEAI medium band (for 500-2000
5 MWh per annum). Natural gas rate Band I2 >=1000<10,000 GJ per annum
Prices for MFO and Gas oil and Electricity from SEAI Fuel cost comparison Commercial/ Industrial Fuels Comparison of Energy Costs 01 April 2011
6
7
8 To estimate fuel to be switched from (from Gas to the NW study). Percentage estimates given in report Appendix G
9
10 Users expected to switch to natural gas from fuels in percentages below
11
MFO
Gas oil
Electricity
12 Large I/C users
90%
5%
5%
13 Medium & Small users
20%
70%
10%
14
15 Then to Estimate proportion of Large and Small and Medium users
16
Gaslink New towns analysis gives total estimated load for each town. However while it lists the number of large users it does not give information of
size of large loads. It was therefore necessary to use the figures from the Gas to the NW study to estiamte proportion of load which could be
categorised as large (and small and medium). The report gave potential loads estimated for Large, Medium and Small I/C for two different route
options. Route A included Castlebar, Route C included Ballyhaunis, Claremorris and Ballaghaderreen. An average of the two routes was taken to
17 give an estimate of the proportion of the load which can be considered Large I/C and that which can be considered Small and Medium I/C.
18
Combining M&S
I/C
19
Route A
%
Route C
%
Average%
20 Large I/C
3,967
63%
7,679
77%
70%
70.4%
21 Medium I/C
880
14%
846
9%
11%
29.6%
22 Small I/C
1,412
23%
1,401
14%
18%
23 Total
6,259
100%
9,926
100%
100%
24
25 Then combine data for all I/C users (large with medium and small) to estimate percentage rate of change from different fuel types.
26
MFO
Gas oil
Electricity
check
All I/C (proportions of estimated
load and proportions of fuel types
27 combined.
69.3%
24.3%
6.5%
100.0%
28
I&C carbon emission saving (7)
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
29 To Calculate Fuel Cost savings total estimated load for 11 North West Towns from Gaslink New Towns Analysis Phase III is used.
30
Estimated
Industrial and
Commercial
Annual
Consumption in
year 7 (MWh)
31 Town
32 Ballyshannon
9,588
33 Bundoran
10,349
34 Donegal
43,934
35 Lifford
4,650
36 Letterkenny
50,969
37 Sligo
70,379
38 Boyle
6,310
39 Carrick on Shannon
248,744
40 Roscommon
32,820
41 Strokestown
4,407
42 Ballaghaderreen
88,451
43 TOTAL
570,601
44
45 Estimate of carbon emission savings if switch to natural gas
46
Fuel Cost Savings
Proportion of load for each fuel
47 MWh
MFO*
Gas Oil**
Electricity***
Total for 3 fuels Natural gas*
395,199
138,419
36,983
48 Emissions Factors^ (g CO2/kWh)
273.6
263.9
533.0
205.6
49 EF tonnes CO2/MWh
0.2736
0.2639
0.5330
0.2056
50 Emissions for fuel (t CO2)
108,126
36,529
19,712
570,601
164,367
51
Tonnes CO2 saved annually
47,052
52
53
54
55
56
57
Value (annually) if CO2 €15/t
€705,774
^ Source: SEAI http://www.seai.ie/Publications/Statistics_Publications/Emission_Factors/
* Residual oil EF
**Gas/Diesel oil EF
*** 2009 factor
I&C carbon emission saving (7)
570,601
117,316
A
B
C
D
E
1 Fuel cost savings for Domestic users in 11 towns
2 (Policy Briefing page 9)
3
4 To estimate fuel to be switched from (from Gas to the NW study). Percentage estimates given in report Appendix G
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Prices for fuels from SEAI Fuel cost comparison Comparison of Energy Costs 01 July 2011
To estimate fuel to be switched from (from Gas to the NW study). Percentage estimates given in report Appendix G
Residental users expected to switch to natural gas from fuels in percentages below
Distillates
Coal
Electricity
Residential
70%
10%
10%
Distillates are assumed to be kerosene
Rates used (SEAI July 2011):
Distillates (Kerosene)
Coal (Standard coal)
Electricity (Band DC>=2500<5000kWh
18 per annum
19 Peat (Briquettes, Baled)
Natural Gas (Band D>=20<200GJ per
20 annum)
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
Peat
10%
Town
Ballyshannon
Bundoran
Donegal
Lifford
Letterkenny
Sligo
Boyle
Carrick on Shannon
Roscommon
Strokestown*
Ballaghaderreen
TOTAL
7.93c/kWh
4.43c/kWh
18.75c/kWh
5.82c/kWh
5.27c/kWh
New Housing Load (Forecast Summary, year 10) (MWh)
4,420 29 new connections each year
29
3,048 20 new connections each year
20
3,658 24 new connections each year
24
2,134 14 new connections each year
14
39,929 262 new connections each year
262
64,008 420 new connections each year
420
4,572 30 new connections each year
30
5,486 36 new connections each year
36
7,925 52 new connections each year
52
1,219 8 new connections each year
8
3,048 20 new connections each year
20
139,447
915
Domestic (8)
F
G
H
I
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
35 * estimated as original as Figure in Report incorrect (estimate based on forecast of 8 new houses per year and demand per house as in New Towns Analysis)
H
I
36
37
38
To Estimate fuel cost savings if switch to natural gas.
Fuel Cost Savings
39 Proportion of load for each fuel MWh
Price c/kWh (SEAI Domestic fuel
40 comparison July 2011)
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
Price €/MWh
Cost of estimated load for mix of 3 fuels
Kerosene
Coal
Electricity
Peat
Total for 4
fuels
Natural gas*
97,613
13,945
13,945
13,945
139,447
7.93
4.43
18.75
5.82
5.27
€79.30
€44.30
€187.50
€58.20
€52.70
€7,740,703
€617,750
€2,614,631
€811,582 €11,784,666
139,447
€7,348,857
* see above for rate used.
The estimated annual saving for new domestic users in the 11 towns if they were connected to natural gas would be €4,435,809
Fuel
Kerosene
Coal
Electricity
Peat
Total
Natural gas
Annual Saving
Estimated load (MWh)
97,613
13,945
13,945
13,945
139,447
139,447
Price €/MWh*
€79.30
€44.30
€187.50
€58.20
€52.70
Cost
€7,740,703
€617,750
€2,614,631
€811,582
€11,784,666
€7,348,857
€4,435,809
New housing connections each year (as estimated
58 for year 10)
59 Total after 10 years
60
61 Saving per house per year
915
9150
€484.79
Domestic (8)
Difference between
cost of natural gas
and alternative fuels
€4,435,809
A
1 (Policy Briefing page 5)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Town
Ballyshannon
Bundoran
Donegal
Lifford
Letterkenny
Sligo
Boyle
Carrick on Shannon
Roscommon
Strokestown*
Ballaghaderreen
TOTAL
B
C
D
E
F
I&C load forecast
New Housing Load (Forecast Summary,
year 7 (MWh)
year 10) (MWh)
9,588
4,420 29 new connections each year
10,349
3,048 20 new connections each year
43,934
3,658 24 new connections each year
4,650
2,134 14 new connections each year
50,969
39,929 262 new connections each year
70,379
64,008 420 new connections each year
6,310
4,572 30 new connections each year
248,744
5,486 36 new connections each year
32,820
7,925 52 new connections each year
4,407
1,219 8 new connections each year
88,451
3,048 20 new connections each year
570,601 139,447
G
Total
14,008
13,397
47,592
6,784
90,898
134,387
10,882
254,230
40,745
5,626
91,499
710,048
* estimated as original as Figure in Report incorrect (estimate based on forecast of 8 new houses per year and demand per house as in New Towns Analysis)
Est demand I&C Dom (9)
H
I
1
2
3
4
5
6
A
B
C
Carbon emissions savings for Domestic users in 11 towns
(Policy Briefing page 10)
D
E
F
To estimate fuel to be switched from (from Gas to the NW study*). Percentage estimates given in report Appendix G
*Fingleton White et al., 2007, Gas to the Northwest Feasibility Study commissioned by DCMNR.
7 Prices for fuels from SEAI Fuel cost comparison Comparison of Energy Costs 01 April 2011
8
9
10
11 Residental users expected to switch to natural gas from fuels in percentages below
12
Distillates
Coal
Electricity
Peat
13 Residential
70%
10%
10%
10%
14
15 Distillates are assumed to be kerosene
16
17
Town
New Housing Load (Forecast Summary, year 10) (MWh)
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Ballyshannon
Bundoran
Donegal
Lifford
Letterkenny
Sligo
Boyle
Carrick on Shannon
Roscommon
Strokestown*
Ballaghaderreen
TOTAL
4,420 29 new connections each year
3,048 20 new connections each year
3,658 24 new connections each year
2,134 14 new connections each year
39,929 262 new connections each year
64,008 420 new connections each year
4,572 30 new connections each year
5,486 36 new connections each year
7,925 52 new connections each year
1,219 8 new connections each year
3,048 20 new connections each year
139,447
31
* estimated as original as Figure in Report incorrect (estimate based on forecast of 8 new houses per year and demand per house as in New Towns Analysis)
32
Domestic carbon emission (10)
G
A
33
B
C
D
E
F
G
Peat*
Total for 4
fuels
Natural gas*
Estimate of carbon emissions savings if switch to natural gas
34
Fuel Cost Savings
Proportion of load for each
35 fuel MWh
Emissions Factors^ (g
36 CO2/kWh)
37 EF tonnes CO2/MWh
38 Emissions for fuel (t CO2)
39
40
Kerosene
97,613
Coal
13,945
Electricity
13,945
13,945
139,447
139,447
257.0
340.6
533.0
374.4
205.6
0.2570
0.3406
0.5330
0.3744
0.2056
25,087
4,750
7,433
5,221
Tonnes CO2 saved annually
Value (annually) if CO2 €15/t
42,490
28,670
13,819
€207,288
41
42 *sod peat
43 * see above for rate used.
The estimated annual saving of emissions for new domestic users in the 11 towns if they were connected to natural
44 gas would be €207,288
45
Domestic carbon emission (10)