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Week 40
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
Weekly Gas Report
HIGHLIGHTS
VLGC: Short-term softening
Ammonia: Prices firming
on continued supply issues
Handy: Lack of spot market activity
VLGC
NH3
HANDY
A decidedly lacklustre week both
east and west of Suez, with only
two Indian cargoes being fixed
out of the Middle East Gulf. A
rumour at the end of the week of
one more potential ship being
booked remains unconfirmed at
the time of writing. East of Suez
remains reasonably well supplied
in terms of available tonnage for
October and we do suspect that
the Baltic Index will continue to
soften a little more in the short
term,
however fundamentals
exist that could serve to stabilize
the Index towards the end of next
week or the week after.
The ammonia market is still
impacted by production issues at
a number of export plants. This
has again contributed to a more
bullish price outlook with rumors
of firmer prices with US$ 600–
605 pmt concluded both in the
Black Sea and in the Baltic.
Production
in
Trinidad
is
reportedly running 30% below
capacity due to dwindling gas
supplies
resulting
from
insufficient offshore drilling. Gas
shortages are also preventing the
restart of the OCI-EBIC plant that
has been closed since end June.
The main focus of the week has
been the USEC MarkWest
November cargo, which we
understand has been awarded
however to whom is yet to be
confirmed. One Navigator vessel
is currently open for spot
business in the Mediterranean
and an Eletson controlled vessel
will be open in Morocco early
second half October. Freight rates
continue to move sideways and
we do expect this tendency to be
maintained in the coming weeks.
Coaster: Slight increase in
East of Suez trade has slowed COASTER
activity
West of Suez one cargo remains with Middle East gulf producers
uncovered for early November already sold out for October and
while the October program Far east inventories sufficient for
should now be sorted. Typically the time being.
discharge destinations of the
early October loaders will be the
determinants for November
availability.
“There is no elevator to
success, you have to take
the stairs !”
VLGC Timecharter Equivalent (TCE)
US$/month
4,000,000
3,700,000
3,400,000
3,100,000
2,800,000
2,500,000
2,200,000
1,900,000
1,600,000
1,300,000
1,000,000
700,000
400,000
100,000
-200,000 1
-500,000
The European Coaster market
saw a slight increase in activity
this week; yet far from being able
absorb the amount of open
vessels being shown in both
North West Europe and the
Mediterranean. However, we do
not see any signs of the pressure
on freight rates to be decreasing
yet. On a longer term, some
market players expect that the
approaching winter months will
create more balance in the
market, but this remains to be
seen.
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5 YR LOW
1
5 YR HIGH
5 YR AVG
2014 Ytd
Week no
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
LPG
LPG prices declining
in NW Europe, increasing elsewhere
The North West European market saw both grades trading
lower on the back of even
sharper crude and naphtha falls.
Butane declined the most and
ended the week at parity to
both propane and naphtha.
Petchem producers were looking to resell LPG as naphtha has
become the most attractive
feedstock. Meanwhile mild
weather continues to undermine demand from the heating
sector.
remained lackluster even following the release of the October
CP. Fob cargoes were offered at
a discount to CP in the US$ 1015 range, the discount required
to cover the cost of freight to
Asia. November CP swaps ended the week at US$ 742.
The Asian LPG market saw price
moving higher in spite of weaker
crude and naphtha. Yet, further
prices gains are likely to kept in
check by ample stocks and high
volumes of incoming arbitrage
cargoes. Furthermore, petchem
sector demand is waning with
butane now at parity with naphIn the Middle Eastern Gulf, ac- tha instead of the typical 10%
tivity in the product market discount or more required to
FERC approval to construct and
operate the Chesapeake Bay
facility, which will ship cargoes
to India and Japan. The approval
came after more than two years
of analysis. Sumitomo Corp. and
GAIL of India have each contracted for half of the LNG capacity..
The project is scheduled to come
on stream in June 2017.
LNG
Mitsui is proceeding with the
procurement of eight LNG
carriers to be used for the
delivery of LNG, mainly to its
customers in Japan, from the
Cameron LNG export project in
the U.S. One week ago the
company signed time charter
parties
for
five
ships
Additionally, Mitsui is preparing
to conclude time charter parties Skangass, the Norwegian LNG
and natural gas company, has
for the remaining 3 ships.
decided to build Finland's first
LNG import terminal at the port
of Pori in the west of the counThe Cove Point LNG export pro- try to be completed in 2016. The
ject in Maryland, has received terminal will have a capacity of
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induce flexible ethylene crackers
to switch from naphtha to LPG.
The absence of petchem sector
demand is limiting Middle East
Gulf import of butane parcels.
US propane prices showed moderate price gains in spite of substantial crude falls. Market participants appeared to be more
concerned with the possibility of
a repeat of last year with a
sharp rundown of stocks during
the winter months. EIA propane
data showed a build in stocks of
443,000bl, which was less than
expected. Propane was priced at
48.7% of WTI.
30,000 cubic metres of LNG. The
facility would benefit from a US$
28 million investment from the
Finnish government
Ophir Energy, the UK company
developing the Tanzania LNG
project in East Africa with three
energy majors and a unit of
Singapore fund Temasek, said
latest drilling confirmed that one
block alone out of three will
support a liquefaction Train of 5
million tonnes per annum for an
aggregate 15 MTPA liquefaction
plant.
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
FIXTURES
SPOT
Vessel
PROVIDENCE
YAMABUKI
SIGAS MAUD
JOAN
EPIC CURACAO
B GAS ETTRICK
TROUT
Built Cbm Qty
2008 82423 44'
1993 80793 44'
2006 5018 2'
2009 3540 1'8
2014 3455 1'6
1991 3215 1'6
1990 2560 FC
Cargo
LPG
LPG
PROPANE
BUTANE
PROPANE
PROPANE
BUTANE
Load
MAA
RAS LAFFAN
TEES
BILBAO
PORT JEROME
TEES
GRANGEMOUTH
Disch
ECI
ECI
ARA/DUNKIRK
OPTS
GDANSK
OPTS
OPTS
Laycan
12-13 OCT
17-18 OCT
30-02 OCT
02-04 OCT
02-04 OCT
04-06 OCT
03-05 OCT
Rate US$
3.4 MILLION BSS 1:3
3.15 MILL BSS 1:2
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
RNR
Charterer
HPCL
IOC
ENI
REPSOL
EXXON
SHV
PETROINEOS
Period
12 MONTHS
12 MONTHS
Hire US$
1.5 MILLION
1.5 MILLION
Charterer
PETREDEC
PETREDEC
PERIOD
Vessel
BW HAVIS
BW HAVFROST
Built Cbm Trade Delivery
1993 57100 LPG
1991 57100 LPG
OCTOBER
20-25 SEPT
RATES
The Baltic Exchange LPG Index
44’LPG Ras Tanura/Chiba
Weekly Baltic average
Baltic TC Equivalent
(US$/pmt)
(US$/pcm)
(US$/pd)
Last Week
106.04
2,814,940
92,536
This Week
99.65
2,604,048
85,603
Trend
Softening
Softening
Softening
12 months Time Charter - Indicators
3.200 cbm S/R
3.500 cbm P/R - East
3.500 cbm P/R - West
5.000 cbm P/R
6.500 cbm S/R
10.000 cbm ETH
20.000 cbm S/R
35.000 cbm
60.000 cbm
82.000 cbm
Last Week
(US$/pd)
7,890
6,903
7,232
9,369
13,642
19,395
36,160
32,873
52,597
62,459
This Week
(US$/pd)
7,890
6,903
7,232
9,369
13,642
19,395
36,160
32,873
52,597
62,459
This Week
(US$/pcm)
240,000
210,000
220,000
285,000
415,000
590,000
1,100,000
1,000,000
1,600,000
1,900,000
Trend
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
VALUATIONS
We provide expertise valuations for a number of ship owning and banking clients worldwide, covering all types of gas carriers either on a
regular basis (quarterly, semi-annually) or on an ad hoc basis. Our experienced team is fully updated on the latest secondhand and newbuilding price trends and maintain a comprehensive database with historical prices. We strive to maintain an unbiased approach to valuations, which are carried out in due diligence and in accordance with established ISO procedures.
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-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
PRODUCTS & PRICES
LPG, Natgas, Crude, IFO380
NWE
CIF ARA Small
US Mt Belvieu
Non-LST
NWE Propane Swaps
Q1 forward
Q2 forward
MEG
Contract Price
Japan CFR
NG, Crude & IFO380
NG, NYMEX
WTI, Crude - Spot
IFO380, Fujairah
Propane
usd/pmt
Change from
last week
Butane
usd/pmt
Change from
last week
662.00
-0.15%
700.00
-9.29%
547.87
1.24%
555.27
-1.97%
695.00
683.00
-1.15%
-15.81%
735.00
822.00
-1.22%
0.67%
765.00
842.00
-2.55%
-1.48%
3.99
91.47
567.00
0.95%
-1.18%
-1.59%
usd/mmbtu
usd/bbl
usd/pmt
Various Sources
Name
Brokers
Anders Lalim
Martin Engelsen Hals
Katie Du
Sebastian Isaksen
Henrik Konow Verlo
Research
Knut Stangebye Olsen
Operation
Håvard Teigland
Spyros Bampetas
Office
Mobile
Yahoo Messenger
(+47) 2252 7707
(+47) 2252 7783
(+47) 2252 7736
(+47) 2252 7737
(+47) 2252 7755
(+47) 905 30 930
(+47) 909 39 949
(+47) 901 54 760
(+47) 958 00 214
(+47) 924 65 307
la_limno
martinengelsenhals
katiemin1209
sebastian.isaksen
hkverlo
(+47) 2252 7703
(+47) 952 48 490
knutstangebyeolsen
(+47) 2252 7733
(+30) 2108 9000 62
(+47) 980 43 763
(+30) 6973 38 2273
havardteigland
spyrosbampetas
Email:
Phone:
Fax:
lorgas@lorstem.no
(+47) 2252 77 00
(+47) 2252 78 64
Lorentzen & Stemoco AS
Munkedamsveien 45
8th floor, lift E
PO Box 2029 Vika,
N-0125 Oslo, Norway
www.lorstem.com
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