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3. natural gas

Week 4 - 2015
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
Weekly Gas Report
HIGHLIGHTS
VLGC: Triple digits anyone?
Ammonia: Prices dropping further, but could
soon stabilize
Handy: Activity picking
up, but pressure on rates
continuing
Coaster: Rates firming
“Trying to get everyone
to like you is a sign of
mediocrity ”
VLGC
A tight position list, increased
buying interest from the East,
Indian charterers in the market
and a substantial amount of
vessels ballasting West; all have
contributed to the significant hike
in the Baltic Index over the last
week. Freight for February
loading in the MEG is already
being talked in the 90s – we
would not be surprised if the
Index did not reach triple figures
very soon. The waters ahead are
murky in the medium term; it is
very difficult to predict where this
market is heading however we
see the potential for a volatile
year.
The Nederland terminal in the US
is loading its first cargo these
days and will ramp up production
quickly to up to 10 cargoes per
month. This is beginning to take
effect with time chartered
tonnage as well as contract
tonnage ballasting from the East.
As pricing for the moment does
not support West discharge,
speculations are for most of these
cargoes to go long-haul.
The first Chinese built VLGCs,
owned by Avance Gas, are now
sailing and will soon load their
first cargoes on charter to a
trader; typically for the times sides of the Atlantic and we
both are set to load in Western continue to see some downward
ports and discharge East.
pressure on rates.
In the midsize segment the fleet
continues to remain well
employed making it difficult for
NH3
charterers to find workable
The market continued to weaken vessels. The Gas Oriental has
although few new spot sales were been fixed by a trader for a
concluded. The Tampa contract voyage in the east with the
for February between Yara and option of a second voyage,
Mosaic was settled at US$ 495 potentially taking her out of the
Cfr, a decrease of 50 from Janu- ammonia spot market for some
ary. In the Black Sea spot deals time forwards.
were talked around US$ 405 basis
Fob. At a US$ 90 differential to
the US, this trade could see a COASTER
recovery as seasonal demand in
the US should boost demand. Activity
levels
are
still
One MGC is scheduled to sail for considerably higher than we saw
the US in January. Product availa- just some weeks ago. The sudden
bility is tighter in the Middle East tightening of the coaster markets
Gulf with outages both in Qatar witnessed in North West Europe
and Saudi Arabia. Hence, prices in last week, served to heighten
could be in the process of stabiliz- Owners confidence and freight
ing. As firmer demand from the rates have followed suit. With
phosphate sector is also evident. more bad weather expected to
approach the North Sea over the
weekend, together with alleged
HANDY
tight COA programs for some
This week has seen a slight Owners, spot rates could
increase in the spot market with strenghten further going into
at least two fixtures concluded next week.
and there is continued interest
from charterers looking at longer
term employment. Even with this
slight increase in activity there
remains
several
workable
February vessels open on both
VLGC Timecharter Equivalent (TCE)
US$/month
4,000,000
3,700,000
3,400,000
3,100,000
2,800,000
2,500,000
2,200,000
1,900,000
1,600,000
1,300,000
1,000,000
700,000
400,000
100,000
-200,000 1
-500,000
3
5
7
9
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
5 YR HIGH
1
5 YR LOW
5 YR AVG
2015ytd
Week no
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
In the Middle Eastern Gulf, spot
differentials to February CP widened to US$ 47 on the back of
Prices in North West Europe rising freight rates. February CP
recorded strong gains. Several swaps ended the week sharply
factors contributed to the firmer higher at US$ 485.
sentiments incl. colder weather,
reduced incoming US supply,
limited North Sea supplies and The Asian LPG market saw prichigher Asian prices. However, es ending the week sharply
overall demand was still rather higher. Sentiment was boosted
week, which prevented prices by demand for second half Febfrom going even higher. Butane ruary arrivals from Japanese
lost further value relative to importers in need to replenish
propane sue to ample supply inventories following a weather
and weak demand.
driven demand increase. Butane
demand remained subdued as
the grade was unattractive rela-
LPG
Propane prices rebounding in all region
LNG
Daewoo Shipbuilding has signed
contracts to build 4 LNG carriers
of 174,000cbm, a pair for
Hyundai LPG Shipping and Korea
Line Corp. The concracts were
placed based on a Kogas tender
in 2014, and the ships will carry
LNG from the Cheniere’s Sabine
Pass export facility in the US. The
contract price is US$ 200 million
per ship, including ME-GI
propulsion technology and a
reliquefaction unit.
Gazprom plans to build a 10
mtpa LNG terminal in the
Leningrad region near the sea
port of Ust-Luga. The planned
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capacity of the LNG plant could
be expanded to 15 mtpa. The
gas would be fed to the facility
through Russia’s Unified Gas
Supply System. Developing the
UGSS to transport gas to the
Baltic LNG facility was discussed
at recent company meeting and
instructions were given to
prepare the project’s transition
to the implementation of the
investment stage.
tive to naphtha in the petchem
market.
US propane prices moved higher, but again the upward momentum was less pronounced
than in overseas markets. Sentiments were boosted by the
release of inventory data for
propane. EIA reported a draw in
nationwide stocks of 3.6 ml bl to
71.23 ml bl, which was substantially higher than expected.
contract closed at $9.54/MMBtu
on 15 January, a $0.750MMBtu
fall since becoming the frontmonth contract on 16 December
2014. The fall was outpaced by
the March ’15 contract, which
dropped $1.17/MMBtu over the
same period to $9.33/MMBtu.
Despite the weakness of Asian
spot prices, the premium of
Asian LNG prices to those in
Europe widened slightly over the
period as northwest European
hub prices also softened in
The Asian spot LNG price for response to falling crude oil.
March delivery slipped below
the expiring February ’15
assessment
as
buyers
anticipated sharply lower rates
under their oil-indexed contracts
in March and April. The ICIS
February East Asia Index (EAX)
-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
FIXTURES
SPOT
Vessel
G PARAGON
DORSET
JAG VISHNU
BW OAK
MONSOON
MISTRAL
GAS ORIENTAL
LADY HILDE
GAS PASHA
NAVIGATOR TBN
NAVIGATOR TBN
ESHIPS SHAMAL
GAS GALAXY
Built
2013
2011
1994
2008
2015
2015
2003
1998
1995
2010
1997
Cbm
80793
82000
75300
80360
83000
83000
35533
3442
3244
2100
2100
6500
3312
Qty
44'
44'
44'
44'
44'
44'
FC
1'6
1'6
11'
11'
3'7
1'8
Cargo
LPG
LPG
LPG
LPG
LPG
LPG
NH3
PROPANE
PROPANE
PROPANE
PROPANE
BUTANE
BUTANE
Load
DAMPIER
RAS LAFFAN
RAS LAFFAN
SANHA
HOUSTON
BALBOA
DAMPIER
TEES
ANTWERP
MARCUS HOOK
MARCUS HOOK
G'MOUTH
ROTTERDAM
Disch
Laycan
FAR EAST
3-5 FEB
INDIA
7-8 FEB
INDIA
10-11 FEB
OPTS
20-22 FEB
EAST
MID MARCH
EAST
20-25 FEB
FAR EAST
END JAN
LISBON/LEIXOES 24-26 JAN
DUBLIN
25-27 JAN
OPTS
16-20 FEB
OPTS
ELY MAR
ARA/MOROCCO 29-31 JAN
OPTS
22-24 JAN
Hire US$
Charterer
MID 70S
BP
3.0 MILL BSS 1:2 HPCL
3.05MILL BSS 1:2 IOC
BALTIC EQUIVALENT
TOTAL
135
PETREDEC
70S
PETREDEC
RNR
YARA
RNR
ENI
RNR
SHV
RNR
STASCO
RNR
STASCO
RNR
ENI
RNR
STASCO
SALE & PURCHASE / NEWBUILDING
Vessel
HELLAS ARGOSY
Built
2003
Cbm
80530
Delivery place/Yard
Del date
PROMPT
Price MUS$
66 MILLION
Buyer
CHINESE BUYER
RATES
The Baltic Exchange LPG Index
44’LPG Ras Tanura/Chiba
Weekly Baltic average
Baltic TC Equivalent
(US$/pmt)
(US$/pcm)
(US$/pd)
Last Week
64.59
1,785,212
58,685
This Week
77.42
2,225,920
73,173
Trend
Firming
Firming
Firming
12 months Time Charter - Indicators
3.200 cbm S/R
3.500 cbm P/R - East
3.500 cbm P/R - West
5.000 cbm P/R
6.500 cbm S/R
10.000 cbm ETH
20.000 cbm S/R
35.000 cbm
60.000 cbm
82.000 cbm
Last Week
(US$/pd)
7,561
5,917
6,082
8,218
13,478
18,738
35,339
33,695
52,597
55,884
This Week
(US$/pd)
7,561
5,917
6,082
8,218
13,478
18,738
35,339
33,695
52,597
59,172
This Week
(US$/pcm)
230,000
180,000
185,000
250,000
410,000
570,000
1,075,000
1,025,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
Trend
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Steady
Firming
VALUATIONS
We provide expertise valuations for a number of ship owning and banking clients worldwide, covering all types of gas carriers either on a
regular basis (quarterly, semi-annually) or on an ad hoc basis. Our experienced team is fully updated on the latest secondhand and newbuilding price trends and maintain a comprehensive database with historical prices. We strive to maintain an unbiased approach to valuations, which are carried out in due diligence and in accordance with established ISO procedures.
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-Shipbrokers and consultants since 1919-
PRODUCTS & PRICES
LPG, Natgas, Crude, IFO380
NWE
CIF ARA Small
US Mt Belvieu
Non-LST
NWE Propane Swaps
Q1 forward
Q2 forward
MEG
Contract Price
Japan CFR
NG, Crude & IFO380
NG, NYMEX
WTI, Light Crude - NYMEX
IFO380, Fujairah
Propane
usd/pmt
Change from
last week
Butane
usd/pmt
Change from
last week
350.00
11.43%
350.00
12.86%
271.96
10.96%
331.29
-2.58%
352.00
341.00
6.82%
0.29%
425.00
547.50
0.00%
20.18%
470.00
583.50
0.00%
15.68%
2.90
46.74
291.00
-5.92%
-1.65%
2.23%
usd/mmbtu
usd/bbl
usd/pmt
Various Sources
Name
Brokers
Anders Lalim
Martin Engelsen Hals
Katie Du
Sebastian Isaksen
Henrik Konow Verlo
Research
Knut Stangebye Olsen
Operation
Håvard Teigland
Spyros Bampetas
Office
Mobile
Yahoo Messenger
(+47) 2252 7707
(+47) 2252 7783
(+47) 2252 7736
(+47) 2252 7737
(+47) 2252 7755
(+47) 905 30 930
(+47) 909 39 949
(+47) 901 54 760
(+47) 958 00 214
(+47) 924 65 307
la_limno
martinengelsenhals
katiemin1209
sebastian.isaksen
hkverlo
(+47) 2252 7703
(+47) 952 48 490
knutstangebyeolsen
(+47) 2252 7733
(+30) 2108 9000 62
(+47) 980 43 763
(+30) 6973 38 2273
havardteigland
spyrosbampetas
Email:
Phone:
Fax:
lorgas@lorstem.no
(+47) 2252 77 00
(+47) 2252 78 64
Lorentzen & Stemoco AS
Munkedamsveien 45
8th floor, lift E
PO Box 2029 Vika,
N-0125 Oslo, Norway
www.lorstem.com
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