Daily commentary Danske Bank Markets in Northern Ireland 1
Danske Bank Markets in Northern Ireland o Daily commentary Tuesday, 28 October 2014 Key news German IFO lowest in two years UK CBI distributive trades better than forecast Sterling edges up as Fed policy expectations peg back USD Market movers today: Markets overview USD : Durable goods USD : Consumer confidence Good morning, In a fairly quiet session in terms of macro-economic data yesterday the main highlight came in the form of the latest German business confidence figures. These revealed another drop from the previous period and showed that confidence has fallen to its lowest level in almost two years. This latest indicator has added to the growing pile of negative data for Europe’s largest economy and compounds fears about wider issues outside of Germany. Issues such as geo politics, euro zone weakness, German economic policy and of course deflation concerns have led to downward revisions of economic growth. Elsewhere, a report from the Confederation of British Industry showed that its October retail sales balance held steady at +31, beating economists’ forecasts of a fall to +25.. Market rates CCY pair Market rate at opening GBP/USD 1.6114 GBP/EUR 1.2678 Looking at the currencies, sterling rose against the dollar as it struggled after US pending home sales numbers grew less than expected along with a slowdown in the services sector. This along with expectations that the Fed will emphasize this week that US interest rates are likely to stay lower for longer may continue to support cable for the time being. Against the euro, the pound traded flat despite the positive retail sales figures as the single currency was generally supported following the stress testing of EU banks that found smaller than feared capital requirements among the regions banks. EUR/USD 1.2707 EUR/GBP 0.7888 GBP/AUD 1.8244 GBP/CAD 1.8088 GBP/CHF 1.5292 GBP/DKK 9.4381 Staying with the currencies, the pound is starting the day trading at just over $1.61 and just under €1.27 GBP/HKD 12.5003 GBP/JPY GBP/NOK Focus today 173.8700 10.6429 GBP/NZD 2.0404 No specific economic data out of the UK this morning so the pounds direction is likely to be guided by events elsewhere. The main data focus is likely to be on the US for the latest durable goods order data with the consensus is for an increase of 0.5% m/m in September. Staying in the US , consumer confidence is also released with analysts expecting a increase in October following a slight decline in September. The decline in September followed a period of increases and the trend is still up, although there was a clear setback in September. GBP/SEK 11.8506 USD/CNY 6.1133 Have a good day - Andrew Commodities and Stock Markets LIBOR (last business day setting) GBP 1 month 0.506 GBP 3 month 0.55713 GBP 6 month 0.69075 Crude oil ($/barrel) 85.57 Gold ($/oz) 1230 FTSE 100 Today's Major Data Releases Time Region Event 13.30 USD Durable goods 15.00 USD Consumer confidence Period Expectation mm Sept 0.4% Index Oct 87.2 6363.46 Dow Jones 16817.94 Nikkei 225 15329.91 Hang Sang 23520.36 German DAX 9033.2 Source : Reuters Danske Bank Markets in Northern Ireland P a g e |1 www.danskebank.co.uk Danske Bank Markets in Northern Ireland Contact List Markets Team Maureen Brown George McMaster Heather Harman Andrew Lam Aran Shawcross Caroline Kine Head of Markets Brian Telford +44 (0) 28 90891111 +44 (0) 28 90891100 +44 (0) 28 90891111 +44 (0) 28 90891111 +44 (0) 28 90891111 +44 (0) 28 90891111 mau@danskebank.co.uk gem@danskebank.co.uk hhar@danskebank.co.uk anlam@danskebank.co.uk psha@danskebank.co.uk caki@danskebank.co.uk +44 (0) 28 90891111 brte@danskebank.co.uk Telephone calls with Danske Bank may be recorded Danske Bank Markets PO Box 183 1st Floor Donegall Square West Belfast BT1 6JS Markets E Mail: markets@danskebank.co.uk Markets Fax Number : +44 (0) 28 9004 9701 web-site: www.danskebank.co.uk SWIFT address: DABAGB2B Business hours: Monday – Friday 8.00 : 17.00 Issued by Northern Bank Limited trading as Danske Bank (the “Bank” or “We”). 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