1. business and industrial

2QFY2015 Result Update | Pharmaceutical
November 10, 2014
Cadila Healthcare
NEUTRAL
Performance Highlights
CMP
Target Price
Y/E March (` cr)
2QFY2015
2QFY2015
% chg (qoq)
2QFY2014
% chg (yoy)
Net sales
Other income
Gross profit
Operating profit
Adj. Net profit
2,064
59
1242
377
278
2020
40
1206
346
241
2.1
47.1
3.0
8.9
15.2
1698
61
296
212
183
21.5
(2.8)
319.5
77.6
51.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
Cadila Healthcare (Cadila) announced a decent set of numbers for 2QFY2015.
Its revenue for the quarter grew by an impressive 21.5% yoy to `2,064cr, almost
in line with our expectation of `2,020cr. The sales growth during the period was
aided by exports, which grew by 33.5% yoy, while domestic sales grew by 10.5%
yoy. On the operating front, the gross margin was stagnant at 60.2%. However,
owing to a lower rise in employee , R&D and other expenses, which rose by 5.2%,
(8.5%) and 12.6% respectively, the operating margin improved by 576bp yoy to
18.2%, above our estimate of 17.6%. The tax expenses during the period rose by
465.1% yoy, which lead the Adj. net profit to come in at `278cr, a yoy growth of
51.6%, and higher than our estimate of `264cr. We remain Neutral on the stock.
OPM better than expectation: The revenue for the quarter grew by an impressive
21.5% yoy to `2,064cr, almost in line with our expectation of `2,020cr. The sales
growth during the period was aided by exports, which grew by 33.5% yoy, while
domestic sales grew by 10.5% yoy. On the operating front, the gross margin was
stagnant at 60.2%. However, owing to a lower rise in employee, R&D and other
expenses, which rose by 5.2%, (8.5%) and 12.6% respectively, the operating
margin improved by 576bp on a yoy basis to 18.2%, above our estimate of
17.6%. The tax expenses during the period rose by 465.1% yoy, which lead the
Adj. net profit to come in at `278cr, a yoy growth of 51.6% yoy, and higher than
our estimate of `264cr.
`1,490
-
Investment Period
-
Stock Info
Pharmaceutical
Sector
Market Cap (` cr)
30,506
Net debt (` cr)
1,716
Beta
0.1
52 Week High / Low
1,508 / 705
Avg. Daily Volume
22,768
Face Value (`)
5
BSE Sensex
27,869
Nifty
8,337
Reuters Code
CADI.BO
Bloomberg Code
CDH@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters
74.8
MF / Banks / Indian Fls
12.8
FII / NRIs / OCBs
6.6
Indian Public / Others
5.8
Abs.(%)
Sensex
Cadila
3m
1yr
3yr
8.9
33.8
58.6
35.6 107.2
94.1
Outlook and valuation: We expect Cadila’s net sales to post a 20.1% CAGR to
`10,176cr and EPS to report a 24.3% CAGR to `61.9 over FY2014–16E. We
maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Key financials (Consolidated)
Y E March (` cr)
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015E
FY2016E
6,155
7,060
8,505
10,176
% chg
20.9
14.7
20.5
19.7
Net profit
655
819
1,019
1,266
Net sales
0.8
25.0
24.4
24.3
EPS
32.0
40.0
49.8
61.9
EBITDA margin (%)
15.0
14.7
16.7
17.2
% chg
P/E (x)
46.6
37.2
29.9
24.1
RoE (%)
23.3
25.3
26.5
26.5
RoCE (%)
13.2
13.8
18.2
19.9
P/BV (x)
10.0
8.9
7.2
5.8
5.2
4.5
3.7
3.0
34.9
30.7
22.2
17.7
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of November 7, 2014
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Sarabjit Kour Nangra
+91 22 39357600 Ext: 6806
sarabjit@angelbroking.com
1
Cadila Healthcare | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2015 performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
2QFY2015
1QFY2015
2,064
59
Total Income
Gross profit
Net Sales
Other Income
Gross margin (%)
% chg (qoq)
2QFY2014
% chg (yoy)
1HFY2015
1HF2014
2,020
2.1
40
47.1
2,123
2,061
1242
1206
60.2
59.7
1,698
21.5
4,084
3,306
23.5
61
(2.8)
99
103
(3.7)
3.0
1,759
20.7
4,183
3,409
22.7
3.0
1022
21.5
2449
2090
17.2
60.0
63.2
60.2
377
346
18.2
17.1
Financial Cost
17
18
(4.5)
19
(10.7)
35
Depreciation
73
68
8.3
52
41.6
141
98
43.9
345
300
15.0
202
71.1
645
426
51.4
Operating profit
Operating Margin (%)
PBT
Tax
Adj. PAT before Extra-ordinary item
8.9
212
77.6
12.5
722
468
17.7
14.2
% chg
54.3
47 (24.8)
57
52
8.9
10
465.1
110
30
265.2
288
248
16.3
192
50.3
536
395
35.6
0
1
0
1
0
10
7
45.6
8
17
16
Reported PAT
278
240
15.7
183
51.6
518
378
37.0
Adj. PAT
278
241
15.2
183
51.6
519
378
37.2
EPS (`)
13.6
11.8
25.3
18.5
Exceptional loss/(gain)
Minority
8.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2QFY2015 – Actual vs. Angel estimates
(` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variance
Net Sales
2,064
2,020
2.2
377
355
6.0
Operating profit
Tax
Net profit
57
52
9.0
278
264
5.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
Revenue up 21.5% yoy; almost in line with our expectation
For, the quarter, the company posted sales of `2,064cr (V/s an expected
`2,020cr), a yoy growth of 21.5%.
The growth was led by exports (52.7% of sales), which grew by 33.5% yoy, mainly
driven by USA (`802.0cr) which grew by 67.6% yoy. Emerging markets (`88.5cr)
de-grew by 4.3% yoy, while Europe (`77.7cr) de-grew by 17.5% yoy.
The growth in the domestic market (41.9% of sales) by 10.5% yoy was mainly led
by formulations (`680.8cr) which grew by 8.7% yoy. API (`25.7cr) on the other
hand grew by 115.6% yoy, while Wellness (`110.1cr) grew by 5.9% yoy. Animal
Health and others (`66.9cr) grew by 16.2% yoy.
On the regulatory front, the company filed 1 ANDA during the quarter. There have
been 250 ANDAs filed cumulatively till date, of which, 97 are approved and 68
are being marketed actively.
November 10, 2014
2
Cadila Healthcare | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Sales trend in the US and Europe
880
802
800
720
640
(` cr)
560
480
717
678
632
473
400
320
240
160
119
94
101
85
80
78
0
2QFY2014
3QFY2014
4QFY2014
US
1QFY2015
2QFY2015
Europe
Source: Company, Angel Research
Domestic sales (`883.5cr) grew by 10.5% yoy, with formulations posting a growth
of 8.7% yoy during the period. Other segments in the domestic markets i.e API,
Wellness and Animal health posted sales growth of 115.6%, 5.9% and 16.2%
respectively.
Exhibit 4: Sales trend in Domestic Formulation and Wellness Divisions
800
700
626
588
600
681
675
625
(` cr)
500
400
300
200
100
104
107
103
108
110
0
2QFY2014
3QFY2014
4QFY2014
Domestic Formulation
1QFY2015
2QFY2015
Consumer division
Source: Company, Angel Research
On the CRAMS front, the company generated sales of `113.6cr (vs `106.8cr in
2QFY2014), reporting a growth of 6.4% yoy.
OPM expands by 576bps yoy
The OPM for the quarter came in at 18.2% (V/s an expected 17.6%), an expansion
of 576bp yoy. This came inspite of the flat gross margin (60.2% in 2QFY2015),
and was aided by lower rise in employee, R&D and other expenses, which rose by
5.2%, (8.5%) and 12.6% respectively.
November 10, 2014
3
Cadila Healthcare | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Exhibit 5: OPM trend
18.5
18.2
17.5
16.5
17.1
16.0
(%)
15.5
14.5
14.2
13.5
12.5
11.5
12.5
10.5
2QFY2014
3QFY2014
4QFY2014
1QFY2015
2QFY2015
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net profit up 51.6% yoy: The tax expenses during the period rose by 465.1% yoy,
which lead the Adj. net profit to come in at `278cr, a yoy growth of 51.6% yoy,
higher than our estimate of `264cr. Tax as a % of PBT in 2QFY2015 came in at
16.6% V/s 5.0% during the corresponding period of last year.
Exhibit 6: Adjusted Net profit trend
300
278
251
250
(` cr)
200
183
189
2QFY2014
3QFY2014
241
150
100
50
0
4QFY2014
1QFY2015
2QFY2015
Source: Company, Angel Research
Concall takeaways
November 10, 2014

Growth excluding the impact of DPCO 2013 and discontinuation of the
Boehringer Ingelheim contract was 14.0% in the domestic formulation market.

The Management is confident of increasing the current EBITDA margins to
21% in FY2016, aided by growth in US sales.

The company launched 16 products during the quarter in India.

The tax rate is guided at 17-18% for FY2016.

R&D expenses as % of sales are expected to be around 7-8%.

Capex is expected to be around `550cr in FY2015 and `600cr in FY2016.
4
Cadila Healthcare | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Recommendation rationale
Strong domestic portfolio: Cadila is the fifth largest player in the domestic market,
with sales of about `2,464cr in FY2014; the domestic market contributes ~44% to
its top-line. The company enjoys a leadership position in the CVS, GI, women
healthcare and respiratory segments, and has a sales force of 4,500 executives.
The company, on an aggressive front, launched more than 75 new products in
FY2014. During FY2009-14, the company reported a ~15% CAGR in its top-line
in the domestic formulation business.
Further, the company has a strong consumer division through its stake in Zydus
Wellness, which has premium brands such as Sugarfree, Everyuth and Nutralite,
under its umbrella. This segment which contributes ~5.9% of sales, registered a
growth of 4.8% yoy during FY2014.
Going forward, the company expects the segment to grow at an above-industry
rate on the back of new product launches and field force expansion. In FY2014,
sales were lower; however, FY2015 should witness strong sales growth. During
FY2014-16E, we expect the domestic segment to grow at a CAGR of 15.9%.
Exports on a strong footing: Cadila has a two-fold focus on exports, wherein it is
targeting developed as well as emerging markets, which contributed around 50%
to its FY2014 top-line. The company has established a formidable presence in the
developed markets of US, Europe (France and Spain) and Japan. In the US, the
company achieved critical scale of `2,170cr on the sales front in FY2014. The
growth in exports to the US along with other regions like Europe would be driven
by new product launches, going forward. Overall, exports are expected to post a
CAGR of 22.1% over FY2014-16E.
Outlook and valuation
We expect Cadila’s net sales to post a 21.9% CAGR to `10,176cr and EPS to
report a 24.3% CAGR to `61.9 over FY2014–16E. We maintain our Neutral
rating on the stock.
November 10, 2014
5
Cadila Healthcare | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Exhibit 7: Key Assumptions
Key assumptions
FY2015E
FY2016E
Domestic growth (%)
15.0
17.0
Exports growth (%)
22.0
21.6
Growth in employee expenses (%)
15.1
18.7
Operating margins (excl tech. know-how fees) (%)
16.7
17.2
Capex (` cr)
650
650
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: One-year forward PE band
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Oct-14
28x
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-13
Apr-12
21x
Oct-12
14x
Oct-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
7x
Apr-10
Oct-09
Price
Apr-09
Oct-08
Apr-08
Oct-07
Apr-07
Oct-06
-
Source: Company, Angel Research
Company background: Cadila Healthcare‘s operations range across API,
formulations, animal health products and cosmeceuticals. The group has global
operations spread across USA, Europe, Japan, Brazil, South Africa and 25 other
emerging markets. Having already achieved the US$1bn sales mark in 2011, the
company is estimated to achieve a sales mark of over US$3bn by 2015 and be a
research-driven pharmaceutical company by 2020.
November 10, 2014
6
Cadila Healthcare | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Exhibit 9: Recommendation Summary
Company
Reco
CMP
Tgt. price
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
Aurobindo Pharma Neutral
Cadila Healthcare
Cipla
Dr Reddy's
Accumulate
Dishman Pharma
Buy
GSK Pharma*
Upside
FY2016E
(`)
(`)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
CAGR in EPS (%)
RoCE (%)
RoE (%)
405
-
-
22.0
3.0
15.6
21.2
31.7
32.6
1,031
-
-
19.3
2.6
13.1
8.1
18.2
27.0
Neutral
1,490
-
-
24.1
3.1
18.0
24.3
19.9
26.5
Neutral
651
-
-
25.8
3.8
19.2
20.6
15.8
16.3
3,397
3,723
9.6
18.3
3.1
12.7
21.2
21.8
25.0
161
221
37.4
7.3
1.0
4.2
27.7
12.9
12.7
Neutral
2,793
-
-
47.0
7.6
37.3
0.4
25.9
25.7
Indoco Remedies
Neutral
311
-
-
21.9
2.7
14.7
50.0
19.8
21.8
Ipca labs
Buy
661
843
27.5
13.3
2.1
9.2
12.4
22.1
23.2
Lupin
Neutral
1,420
-
-
23.4
4.0
14.7
19.3
33.0
25.4
Ranbaxy
Neutral
668
-
-
50.2
2.8
31.7
(5.9)
5.3
10.8
Sanofi India*
Neutral
3,470
-
-
28.4
3.3
18.0
6.6
19.0
20.6
Sun Pharma
Neutral
892
-
-
27.8
4.6
15.6
5.3
25.5
26.1
% PE (x)
FY14-16E
FY2016E
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year ending
November 10, 2014
7
Cadila Healthcare | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Profit & Loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
Gross sales
FY2012
FY2013
4,521
5,181
6,285
FY2014 FY2015E FY2016E
7,208
8,591
10,279
56
91
129
148
86
103
4,465
5,090
6,155
7,060
8,505
10,176
166
173
203
164
164
164
4,630
5,263
6,358
7,224
8,669
10,340
25.6
13.7
20.8
13.6
20.0
19.3
Total expenditure
3,604
4,179
5,232
6,024
7,085
8,427
Net raw materials
1,475
1,679
2,320
2,714
3,104
3,663
162
320
387
443
534
639
Less: Excise duty
Net sales
Other operating income
Total operating income
% chg
Other mfg costs
549
751
903
1,071
1,248
1,493
1,417
1,429
1,622
1,796
2,199
2,631
EBITDA
861
911
923
1,036
1,420
1,749
% chg
24.1
5.8
1.4
12.3
37.0
23.2
(% of Net Sales)
19.3
17.9
15.0
14.7
16.7
17.2
Personnel
Other
Depreciation& amortisation
127
158
183
201
245
284
EBIT
734
753
740
835
1,175
1,465
% chg
31.1
2.6
(1.7)
12.8
40.7
24.8
(% of Net Sales)
16.4
14.8
12.0
11.8
13.8
14.4
Interest & other charges
70
185
169
90
152
152
Other income
13
53
37
51
51
51
2
7
5
5
4
3
(% of PBT)
Recurring PBT
842
794
811
959
1,238
1,528
% chg
39.0
(5.7)
2.1
18.3
29.0
23.5
-
3
-
17
-
-
Extraordinary expense/(Inc.)
842
794
811
942
1,238
1,528
106.4
113.0
119.5
106.0
185.6
229.3
(% of PBT)
12.6
14.2
14.7
11.3
15.0
15.0
PAT (reported)
736
681
692
836
1,052
1,299
25.1
28.6
36.4
32.6
32.6
32.6
PAT after MI (reported)
711
653
655
804
1,019
1,266
ADJ. PAT
711
650
655
819
1,019
1,266
% chg
39.6
(8.6)
0.8
25.0
24.4
24.3
(% of Net Sales)
15.9
12.8
10.6
11.4
12.0
12.4
Adj.Basic EPS (`)
34.7
31.7
32.0
40.0
49.8
61.9
Adj. Fully Diluted EPS (`)
34.7
31.7
32.0
40.0
49.8
61.9
% chg
39.6
(8.6)
0.8
25.0
24.4
24.3
PBT (reported)
Tax
Less: Minority interest (MI)
November 10, 2014
FY2011
8
Cadila Healthcare | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015E
FY2016E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital
102
102
102
102
102
102
Reserves & Surplus
2,069
2,471
2,938
3,337
4,140
5,191
Shareholders funds
2,171
2,574
3,041
3,441
4,245
5,297
Minority interest
67
90
119
144
177
210
1,092
2,289
2,681
2,265
2,265
2,265
Other Long Term Liabilities
19
43
47
55
43
44
Long Term Provisions
62
79
64
76
76
77
Deferred tax liability
113
119
100
96
119
120
3,523
5,193
6,054
6,077
6,805
7,891
2,317
3,008
4,105
3,756
4,406
5,056
969
1,175
1,358
1,540
1,785
2,069
1,348
1,833
2,747
2,216
2,621
2,987
Total loans
Total liabilities
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block
Less: Acc. depreciation
Net block
Capital Work-in-Progress
431
484
248
892
892
892
Goodwill
484
1,015
862
908
908
908
21
24
21
87
87
87
Investments
Long Term Loans and Adv.
201
263
411
495
494
595
2,125
2,760
3,191
3,391
4,106
5,177
Cash
295
467
582
549
759
1,237
Loans & advances
411
275
279
341
334
335
Other
1,420
2,019
2,330
2,501
3,013
3,605
Current liabilities
1,087
1,186
1,426
1,912
2,303
2,755
Net Current assets
1,038
1,574
1,765
1,480
1,804
2,422
-
-
-
-
-
-
3,523
5,193
6,054
6,077
6,805
7,891
Current assets
Mis. Exp. not written off
Total assets
November 10, 2014
9
Cadila Healthcare | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr)
Profit before tax
Depreciation
842
794
811
942
1,238
1,528
127
158
183
201
245
284
(286)
(427)
(223)
168
(113)
(242)
13
53
37
51
51
51
Direct taxes paid
106
113
119
106
186
229
Cash Flow from Operations
564
359
614
1,154
1,133
1,291
(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets
(291)
(743)
(861)
(295)
(650)
(650)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments
(0)
(4)
3
(65)
-
-
Other income
13
53
37
51
51
51
(278)
(694)
(821)
(309)
(599)
(599)
-
-
-
-
-
-
(Inc)/Dec in Working Capital
Less: Other income
Cash Flow from Investing
Issue of Equity
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
7
1,238
382
(397)
(13)
2
(176)
(175)
(175)
(216)
(216)
(216)
(72)
(557)
115
(74)
(96)
(0)
(242)
506
322
(686)
(324)
(214)
45
171
115
158
210
477
Opening Cash balances
251
295
467
582
549
759
Closing Cash balances
295
467
582
549
759
1,237
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
Others
Cash Flow from Financing
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash
November 10, 2014
FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015E FY2016E
10
Cadila Healthcare | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Key Ratios
Y/E March
FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015E FY2016E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS)
42.9
46.9
46.6
37.2
29.9
24.1
P/CEPS
36.3
37.7
36.3
29.8
24.1
19.6
P/BV
14.0
11.9
10.0
8.9
7.2
5.8
Dividend yield (%)
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
EV/Sales
7.0
6.3
5.2
4.5
3.7
3.0
36.2
35.3
34.9
30.7
22.2
17.7
8.8
6.2
5.3
5.2
4.6
3.9
EPS (Basic)
34.7
31.7
32.0
40.0
49.1
60.4
EPS (fully diluted)
34.7
31.7
32.0
40.0
49.1
60.4
Cash EPS
41.0
39.5
41.0
49.9
61.2
74.5
6.3
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
106.1
125.7
148.5
168.1
206.6
256.6
EBIT margin
16.4
14.8
12.0
11.8
13.8
14.3
Tax retention ratio
87.4
85.8
85.3
88.7
85.0
85.0
Asset turnover (x)
1.6
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.6
22.7
16.8
12.8
13.8
17.4
19.5
Cost of Debt (Post Tax)
5.6
9.4
5.8
3.2
5.7
5.7
Leverage (x)
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.3
30.3
20.8
17.7
20.1
22.3
23.4
ROCE (Pre-tax)
22.9
17.3
13.2
13.8
18.0
19.6
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)
34.9
27.2
19.5
20.6
29.1
31.6
ROE
37.4
27.4
23.3
25.3
26.2
26.1
Asset Turnover (Gross Block)
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.8
2.1
2.1
Inventory / Sales (days)
62
66
66
69
62
66
Receivables (days)
49
57
54
57
50
53
Payables (days)
80
49
42
55
50
50
WC (ex-cash) (days)
55
64
66
53
42
40
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.9
2.0
2.3
1.7
1.1
0.6
10.5
4.1
4.4
9.3
7.6
9.4
EV/EBITDA
EV / Total Assets
Per Share Data (`)
DPS
Book Value
Dupont Analysis
ROIC (Post-tax)
Operating ROE
Returns (%)
Turnover ratios (x)
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity
Net debt to EBITDA
Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
November 10, 2014
11
Cadila Healthcare | 2QFY2015 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
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investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
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Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals.
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responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
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nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
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latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have
investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
1. Analyst ownership of the stock
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock
4. Broking relationship with company covered
Cadila
No
No
No
No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
November 10, 2014
Buy (> 15%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Sell (< -15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
12