Carbon Report 17/11/2014 Market prices

Weekly Carbon Report
17/11/2014
Market prices
EUA Prices (€)
Date
Spot
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
14 Nov
6.61
6.62
6.73
6.86
7.01
07 Nov
6.75
6.76
6.87
7.01
7.18
Date
Spot
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
14 Nov
0.09
0.09
0.49
0.49
07 Nov
0.08
0.09
0.47
0.47


CER Prices (€)


SWAP Spread (€)
Date
Spot
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
14 Nov
6.52
6.53
6.24
6.37
07 Nov
6.67
6.67
6.40
6.54
Volatile week for carbon.
EU Commission supporting the MSR
Proposal.
US China climate deal.
Market Stability Reserve Talks.
Futures Daily Market Report for ICE-ECX European Emissions
Market news
Volatile week for carbon. After reaching 8 months high earlier in the week
following policy news and speculative buying, prices have softened and
dropped on Thursday and Friday as the market corrected itself with some
traders reported to have sold EUAs to take profit. This price dropped was
expected by analysts as prices rose earlier in the week primarily on positive
political sentiment while energy fundamentals remained bearish. Some
Analysts have suggested that the price increase earlier in last week was
exaggerated and had predicted a downward correction for the last trading
sessions of the week. Today, the EU Parliament Industrial Committee will
discuss the Market Stability Reserve with analysts not expecting strong
support by the committee for the measure. The Dec14 closed Friday’s
session at €6.62.
EU Commission supporting the MSR Proposal. In his first address to the
EU parliament, the new EU Climate and Energy Commissioner Miguel
Canete detailed the EU ETS reform timeline and reiterated the importance
of the reform to boost clean energy investments in Europe. Canete wants
the reform proposal to be agreed in the first quarter of 2015 and has
confirmed that the Commission will not oppose an early implementation of
the MSR or the permanent removal of the EUAs Surplus. The
Commissioner also wants the EUAs to be given freely to companies after
2020 to help them remain competitive.
US China climate deal. US and China have agreed last week long term
carbon emission reduction objectives ahead of the 2015 Paris Climate
conference where nations are expected to agree on a global post 2020
climate deal. The US has announced that it will cut its emission by 26-28%
by 2025 compared to 2005 levels and increase the use of clean energy
sources in its energy mix to 20%. China on the other hand has agreed for
the first time to cap its emissions and announced it will reduce the use of
coal. Having the Chinese and the Americans announcing their positions has
been positively received by analysts; some of them are now predicting that
nations will potentially agree on a global deal at the Paris meeting in
December 2015.
Market Stability Reserve Talks. The Market Stability Reserve, which is the
proposed mechanism by the EU Commission to regulate the market, has
entered formal law-making procedures and has become a central point in
the discussions on the future of the EU ETS. In the next few months many
meetings will take place to discuss the reform and agree a final text to be
presented to the parliament plenary for voting. Some analysts are
expecting volatility especially around the period when these meetings will
take place and market participants are closely watching the outcome of
these meeting from price direction.
€8
EUA
CER
Spread
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
22 Nov 09 Dec
26 Dec
12 Jan
29 Jan
15 Feb 04 Mar 21 Mar 07 Apr
24 Apr 11 May 28 May 14 Jun
01 Jul
18 Jul
04 Aug 21 Aug
07 Sep
24 Sep
11 Oct
28 Oct
14 Nov
For more information please call Simon Watson on +44 (0) 161 829 01 01 or email simon.watson@gazprom-energy.com
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