PFL Weekly RIN Recap Desk: 239-390-2885 Nov 13, 2014 to Nov 19, 2014 Last Friday the EPA released the October EMTS data and while the data was in lined and seemed to be taken in stride, the RIN values have increased just about 20% over the last week. Market players seems to be jockeying their positions around new rumors that the EPA announcement is soon to come. The sediment is that people do not want to be caught short in the event of a major change in the RVO levels. We are currently approaching a 10 day streak of gains across the 2014 vintages. The 2015 vintage D4 and D6 RINs continuing to see their trading activity increase. The D4s are currently trading at 2.5cts over the 2014 while the 2015 D6 are trading right at 50pts lower their 2014 counterpart. With next week bringing the holiday shortened week, the market could remain volatile as the uncertainty continues to swirl. Trading volumes continue to remain high averaging 20M per day. D6 - 2013 57.50 47.50 57.00 High Low Close CBOT ETHANOL Month Settle Dec 14 1.8750 Jan 15 1.7010 Feb 15 1.6300 Mar 15 1.6060 Etoh - RBOB Diff Month Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Settle (0.17) (0.32) (0.40) (0.44) D6 - 2014 60.00 47.75 57.50 D5 - 2013 56.75 47.50 56.75 D5 - 2014 59.00 50.00 59.00 D4 - 2013 57.25 48.00 57.25 D4 - 2014 61.00 51.50 59.25 RBOB Month Settle Dec 14 2.0438 Jan 15 2.0225 Feb 15 2.0259 Mar 15 2.0410 Implied E85 Price Month Calc Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 1.4116 1.2605 1.2006 1.1825 BO Futures ULSD Futures Dec 14 32.51 Dec 14 2.3590 Jan 15 32.64 Jan 15 2.3412 Mar 15 32.86 Feb 15 2.3291 May 15 33.08 Mar 15 2.3169 ULSD + RIN Value Dec 14 3.248 Jan 15 3.230 Feb 15 3.218 Mar 15 3.206 Spot Arb Snapshot (cpg) 2.7 RBOB Etoh 2.2 E85 1.7 1.2 9/25/2014 10/10/2014 10/25/2014 11/9/2014 D4 '14 59 D5 '14 54 D6 '14 49 44 9/25/2014 10/10/2014 10/25/2014 11/9/2014 275 D5 - D6 Diff 1.50 250 FOB Santos 200.63 225 Implied NYH Anhydrous 221.13 200 Chicago 244.50 NYH 222.00 LA Ethanol 260.50 Argo NYH Santos LA 175 150 125 9/25/2014 10/10/2014 10/25/2014 11/9/2014 This report has been prepared by Progressive Fuels Limited (PFL) personnel for your information only and the views expressed are intended to provide market commentary and are not recommendations. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security. The information contained herein has been compiled by PFL from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Progressive Fuels Limited, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Copyright 2014 Progressive Fuels Limited. All Rights Reserved. PFL 2013-14 D6 Outlook all values in millions (unless stated otherwise) 2012 Recap E12s Produced E12 Surplus 12,978 per EMTS 2,039 per EMTS 2013 Data 2013 RVO Useable E12s E13s Required 2013 D6 production Est. Shortfall / (Surplus) 13,800 2,039 2012 carryout 11,761 13,324 Dec EMTS (1,563) 2013 US Ethanol Export (Denatured) estimate Est. Shortfall / (Surplus) 415.5 (1,147) using estimated full year exports Summary of 2013 D6 EMTS Data EIA weekly production avg D6 RINs from Renewable Diesel D6 RINs from Biodiesel 854.8 2013 EIA data 196.4 (115.5 gal) 55.2 (36.8 gal) 2014 Projections (Nov STEO) EIA Projected Gasoline Consumption (STEO est.) Fuel Ethanol Blended into Gasoline (STEO est.) Fuel Ethanol production (STEO est) Ethanol demand at 10% (calc) 8,850 870 930 885 mb/d mb/d mb/d mb/d Chg from Oct 30 10 flat flat 2014 D6 RINs 2014 D6 proposed mandate Less Projected 2013 Carry Required daily production rate RIN generation needed per month 13,000 11,853 773.2 mb/d 987.7 million RINs / month Weekly average Ethanol production Most recent 4 week average YTD avg D6 RINs from ethanol based on ytd avg. 970.0 week ended 945.5 4 wks ended 917.2 through 14,061 million RINs Jan-Oct EMTS D6 RIN data Annualized D6 Production based on EMTS Prepared by Jason Sawicki Progressive Fuels Limited T: 239.390.2885 jason@progressivefuelslimited.com 11,850.2 million RINs 14,228 million RINs 11/14/2014 11/14/2014 11/14/2014 Nov '13 8,840 860 870 870