Regional Daily, 21 November 2014 5 Regional Daily Ideas Troika Top Stories Kossan Rubber Industries (KRI MK) Consumer Non-cyclical - Rubber Products BUY MYR4.54 TP: MYR5.12 Mkt Cap : USD862m Greatview Aseptic Packaging Neutral Non-cyclical - Packaging Consumer NEUTRAL HKD3.71 TP: HKD3.89 Mkt Cap : USD645m (468 Pg2 We keep our BUY recommendation and TP of MYR5.12. 9M14 earnings came in weaker than expected due to lower contributions from all divisions, but we see a bright outlook for FY15 when its new lines commence operations. Analyst: Jerry Lee (jerry.lee@rhbgroup.com) HK) Pg3 We are concerned after 3Q14 operating results reflected a sharp deterioration. Downgrade to NEUTRAL, with a lower TP. We believe sales and GPM could deteriorate further amid lower demand and ASP. However, negatives looked priced in and there is attractive yield of 5.4%. Analyst: Robin Yuen CFA (robin.yuen@rhbgroup.com) Pg4 October auto sales rebounded +13.4% MoM to 54,187 units as deliveries of the Perodua Axia gathered pace. Cumulative 10M14 TIV sales was flat with some buyers awaiting more attractive discounts and clarity on pricing postGST. Non-national passenger car sales remain robust. NEUTRAL Analyst: Alexander Chia (alexander.chia@rhbgroup.com) Pg5 Spectacular October Rebound From a Low Base Malaysia Auto Sector NEUTRAL Other Key Stories Hong Kong Sunny Optical (2382 HK) Technology - Handset Components BUY HKD13.40 TP: HKD13.50 Malaysia AEON (AEON MK) Consumer Cyclical - Retail NEUTRAL MYR3.51 TP: MYR3.67 Genting Plantations (GENP MK) Agriculture - Plantation BUY MYR10.46 TP: MYR11.60 Analyst: Kong Yong Ng (ng.kong.yong@rhbgroup.com) Pg6 Affected By Higher Operating Costs Analyst: Alexander Chia (alexander.chia@rhbgroup.com) Pg7 Indonesia The Growth Catalyst Analyst: Hoe Lee Leng (hoe.lee.leng@rhbgroup.com) QL Resources (QLG MK) Pg8 Consumer Non-cyclical - Food & Beverage Products BUY MYR3.46 TP: MYR3.90 All On Track Mah Sing (MSGB MK) Property- Real Estate NEUTRAL MYR2.31 TP: MYR2.41 Pg9 Rights Issue To Pay Off Landbank CB Industrial Product Holding (CBP MK) Agriculture – Plantation NEUTRAL MYR2.18 TP: MYR2.10 Pg10 See important disclosures at the end of this report Analyst: Alexander Chia (alexander.chia@rhbgroup.com) Analyst: Loong Kok Wen CFA (loong.kok.wen@rhbgroup.com) Upgrade To NEUTRAL Analyst: Hoe Lee Leng (hoe.lee.leng@rhbgroup.com) Powered by EFATM Platform 1 Results Review, 21 November 2014 Kossan Rubber Industries (KRI MK) Buy (Maintained) Consumer Non-cyclical - Rubber Products Market Cap: USD862m Target Price: Price: MYR5.12 MYR4.54 Macro Risks Outlook Remains Bright Growth Value Kossan Rubber Industries (KRI MK) Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 4.90 144 4.70 138 4.50 133 4.30 127 4.10 122 3.90 116 3.70 111 3.50 105 3.30 100 3.10 7 94 5 4 3 Oct-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 1 Nov-13 Vol m 2 Source: Bloomberg 3.41m/1.05m 9.5 12.8 3.26 - 4.69 32 639 51.1 7.4 5.6 Share Performance (%) Slower growth. Kossan Rubber Industries’ (Kossan) 9M14 net profit of MYR105.8m (+3.7% YoY) came in weaker than our and consensus expectations, at 63% and 65% of the respective full-year forecasts. This was attributed to lower-than-expected sales (-2% YoY) from the technical rubber division due to lower exports of industrial and automotive parts, although the sales of infrastructure products together with marine and dock fenders remained strong. Lower average selling prices (ASPs) in the gloves division due to lower raw material prices offset higher sales volume (+5.5% YoY for 3Q14). As for its clean-room division, higher operating expenses incurred from the expansion of its clean-room facilities in China coupled with higher staff costs led to a decline in earnings contribution. Outlook. We learnt that Kossan is currently ramping up its production volume – Plant 1 is currently running at full capacity, while Plants 2 and 3 are expected to commence commercial production in Nov 2014 and Jan 2015 respectively. Coupled with its cost-control measures to improve production efficiency, we remain positive on the company’s future earnings prospects. The technical rubber products division is expected to pick up when supply to the mass rapid transit (MRT) projects starts, while the clean-room division is set to improve since the expansion investment has been completed. Maintain BUY. We trim our FY14 earnings forecast by 6% as full contribution from its new plants has yet to come in, and keep our FY15 forecast unchanged. Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of MYR5.12, based on a 17x FY15F P/E, at a discount to Hartalega Holdings’ (HART MK, BUY, TP: MYR7.50) 21x. However, we think this is justifiable noting that Hartalega fetches a better net profit margin of 20% vs Kossan’s 1112%, given the former’s superior operating efficiency and greater emphasis on nitrile glove production. YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 5.1 0.4 14.4 14.6 36.7 Forecasts and Valuations Relative 7.4 (0.8) 17.3 17.6 35.3 Total turnover (MYRm) Shariah compliant Jerry Lee +603 9207 7622 jerry.lee@rhbgroup.com Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F 1,234 1,307 1,467 1,697 2,046 Reported net profit (MYRm) 102 136 157 193 236 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 100 142 157 193 236 Recurring net profit growth (%) 9.6 42.0 10.8 22.3 22.6 Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.16 0.22 0.25 0.30 0.37 DPS (MYR) 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.12 Recurring P/E (x) 29.0 20.4 18.4 15.1 12.3 P/B (x) 4.80 4.12 3.56 3.06 2.60 P/CF (x) 23.9 13.9 15.9 14.9 15.9 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 16.4 12.5 10.9 9.1 7.6 Return on average equity (%) 18.0 20.8 20.7 21.8 22.9 Net debt to equity (%) 16.1 9.5 Dividend Yield (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 . 2 0 . 3 0 0 . 2 0 0 We keep our BUY recommendation and TP of MYR5.12 (12.8% upside, . 0 17x FY15F P/E). 9M14 earnings came in weaker than expected due to 0 lower contributions from all divisions, but we see a bright outlook for 0 FY15 when its new lines commence operations. Kossan declared a dividend of 3.5 sen in the quarter under review. We remain positive on the company’s future growth prospects. 6 Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) Kossan Holdings Invesco Ltd KWAP Source: Company data, RHB 8.7 4.1 2.9 (5.3) (5.9) (0.2) Powered by EFATM Platform 2 Company Update, 21 November 2014 Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) Consumer Non-cyclical - Packaging Market Cap: USD645m Neutral (from Buy) Target Price: Price: HKD3.89 HKD3.71 Macro Risks Mounting Concerns – But Appear To Be Priced In Growth Value Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) Relative to Hang Seng Index (RHS) 115 5.20 105 4.70 95 4.20 85 3.70 75 3.20 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 65 May-14 Oct-14 5.70 Jul-14 125 Mar-14 6.20 Jan-14 135 Nov-13 Vol m Price Close 6.70 Avg Turnover (HKD/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (HKD) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) 14.6m/1.64m 34.0 4.8 3.49 - 6.15 73 1,348 Wellington management Matthews International Foxing Development Ltd. 0 0 . 2 0 0 We are concerned with the negative factors affecting Greatview, after . 0 3Q14 operating results reflected a sharp deterioration. Downgrade to 0 NEUTRAL, with a lower TP of HKD3.89 (4.8% upside). We believe its 0 sales and GPM could deteriorate further amid reduced demand and lower prices from Mengniu and Yili. However, we believe these negatives are priced in. The stock offers an attractive yield of 5.4%. Source: Bloomberg 13.0 9.9 9.6 Share Performance (%) Profit warning recap. Greatview Aseptic Packaging’s (Greatview) 9M14 net profit dropped 16% YoY and sales grew only 10% YoY. While FX losses accounted for 75% of the net profit (NP) decline of CNY35m, 3Q14 results deteriorated sharply as sales fell 7% YoY vs a growth of 20% in 1H14. Greatview surprised investors when guided its sales in 4Q to be similar to 3Q, thus implying a c.7% decline. We estimate its reported EPS to drop c. 16% YoY, or by 8%, excluding FX losses. Twin industry headwinds in dairy. Domestic milk price hikes after channel restocking in 1Q14 by dairy processors such as Mengniu (2319 HK, NR) have led to waning demand. Additionally, the global milk glut has encouraged retailers to import foreign ultra-high temperature processing (UHT) milk products into China. These two factors put a short- to medium-term dampener on UHT milk production, which in turn affected demand for packaging. Competitive pressure. Greatview’s top rival, ie Tetra Pak, defended its market share by giving discounts, which led to a price war. To date, the State Administration for Industry and Commerce’s (SAIC) anticompetitive investigation into Tetra Pak has made little progress, with bundling of filling machines, servicing and packaging believed to be still in practice. Moreover, recent price promotions by its major customers like Mengniu and Yili (600887 CH, NR) to maintain their own margins may pressure Greatview’s ASP, in our view. All these factors suggest that Greatview’s gross profit margins (GPM) are vulnerable. Downgrade to NEUTRAL (from Buy). We cut our recurring NP forecasts by 22%, 31% and 35% for FY14-16 respectively. Our new TP of HKD3.89 (from HKD7.05) is now based on a 13x FY15F P/E, about 0.5SD below the historical average forward P/E of 15x from its Dec 2010 IPO. We believe its lower P/E (from 16x previously) is justified by a slower growth profile and a more competitive operating environment. This marks the transfer of coverage to Robin Yuen. YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute (19.0) (29.3) (37.6) (21.6) (25.8) Forecasts and Valuations Relative (20.0) (31.3) (31.1) (24.6) (25.1) Total turnover (CNYm) Shariah compliant Robin Yuen, CFA +852 2103 9202 robin.yuen@rhbgroup.com Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F 1,744 2,160 2,278 2,618 3,029 Reported net profit (CNYm) 315 317 268 318 359 Recurring net profit (CNYm) 310 310 284 318 359 Recurring net profit growth (%) 14.2 (0.0) (8.4) 11.9 12.8 Recurring EPS (CNY) 0.23 0.23 0.21 0.24 0.27 DPS (CNY) 0.08 0.08 0.16 0.16 0.16 Recurring P/E (x) 12.6 12.6 13.9 12.4 11.0 P/B (x) 2.10 1.87 1.57 1.41 1.26 P/CF (x) 9.6 16.8 15.5 18.3 13.1 Dividend Yield (%) 2.7 2.7 5.4 5.4 5.4 8.22 7.38 8.87 7.53 6.51 18.0 16.0 11.6 12.0 12.1 EV/EBITDA (x) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 . 2 0 . 2 Source: Company data, RHB net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash (4.8) (15.6) Powered by EFATM Platform (19.2) 3 Sector Update, 21 November 2014 Auto & Autoparts NEUTRAL (Maintained) Macro Risks Auto Sales Rebound Growth Value 3 2 1 2 2013 market share October auto sales rebounded +13.4% MoM to 54,187 units from a 6.6% MoM contraction in September as deliveries of the Perodua Axia gathered pace. However, cumulative 10M14 TIV sales continued to slow to +0.6% YoY from a higher base, in addition to consumers’ anticipation of year-end discounts and some choosing to defer their purchases until the GST impact on car prices becomes clearer. Maintain NEUTRAL. Source: MAA YTD Oct 2014 market share Source: MAA Auto sales rebound. According to data from the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA), auto sales rebounded 13.4% MoM to 54,187 units, against a 6.6% MoM contraction last month. The jump in auto sales was expected as deliveries of the Perodua Axia, which was launched on 15 Sep gathered pace. Despite the MoM gain, auto sales for the month declined 1.6% YoY, while cumulative 10M14 total industry volume (TIV) remained flattish at +0.6% YoY with YTD sales of 546,492 units. We believe the sluggish sales could be due to consumers taking a wait-andsee approach ahead of the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) next April, where a 6% GST will replace a 10% sales tax. In addition, consumers could be putting off purchases to avail themselves of year-end discounts as automakers seek to clear inventories. Perodua steals the show while Proton lags. Perodua and Proton sales rose 46% and 1% MoM respectively. We believe the higher Perodua sales were due to ramped-up deliveries of the new Axia model after its launch. Perodua looks to be on track to meet its sales target of 193,000 units this year. We understand that Proton has been slow in ramping up production of the new Iriz in a concerted effort to avoid quality issues of the past. We expect Proton sales to edge up further in the coming months, though its increasingly dated model line-up could continue to weigh on sales. Nissan boosted by the new complete-knock-down (CKD) Serena. Honda, Toyota and Nissan all posted sales gains during the month, though Nissan sales rose 15.7% MoM, boosted by sales of the new Nissan Serena S-Hybrid. Mazda sales remained flat, down 1.9% MoM although cumulative Mazda sales were up 20.8% YoY. We expect Mazda sales to improve next year following the launch of the highly-anticipated Mazda 2 and Mazda 3 CKD in Jan 2015. Cumulative Toyota sales rose 14.4% YoY and Toyota is on track to meet its 2014 sales target. Outlook. The MAA expects November sales volume to be sustained at October’s level, ahead of the GST implementation while an elevated financing rejection rate continues to crimp vehicle sales. However, aggressive discounting and sales promotions in the run-up to the yearend could boost sales. Our current 2014 TIV forecast of 675,000 units can still be met if the industry has a strong close for the year. Alexander Chia +603 9207 7621 alexander.chia@rhbgroup.com See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 4 Sector Update, 21 November 2014 See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 5 Corporate News Flash, 21 November 2014 Sunny Optical (2382 HK) Neutral (Maintained) Technology - Handset Components Market Cap: USD1,898m Target Price: Price: HKD13.50 HKD13.40 Macro Risks Spectacular October Rebound From a Low Base Growth Value Sunny Optical (2382 HK) Price Close Relative to Hang Seng Index (RHS) 15.3 14.3 212 13.3 198 12.3 184 11.3 170 10.3 156 9.3 142 8.3 128 7.3 114 6.3 100 5.3 35 86 30 Our view: 20 15 Oct-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 5 Nov-13 Vol m 10 Avg Turnover (HKD/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (HKD) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) 70.9m/9.08m 0.0 0.8 6.12 - 13.9 56 1,097 Management JP Morgan Chase & Co. The impressive YoY shipment growth in Oct 2014 was due to Oct 2013’s flooding of Sunny’s headquarters (HQ) as well as continued strong demand from its key customers. We believe the YoY growth rates for the rest of the year should ease as production normalised in Nov 2013. In 10M14, HCM shipments reached 155m (+40% YoY), ahead of our +35% YoY forecast. Total HLS shipments reached 88m units (+97% YoY), catching up to our forecast of +107% YoY. VLS shipments reached 9m (+61% YoY), also above our +50% YoY forecast. However, as we expect November and December growth rates to slow down, we remain comfortable with our current forecasts. Maintain NEUTRAL with an unchanged TP of HKD13.50, based on a 13x FY15F P/E (+1SD above 3-year forward P/E). At the current 13x FY15F P/E valuation, we believe Sunny is fairly valued as its HK-listed peers are trading at 10x FY15. We note our FY14/FY15 recurring EPS forecasts are still substantially above consensus by 18%/19%. 38.5 5.0 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Forecasts and Valuations Absolute 78.0 1.1 23.8 46.7 96.2 Total turnover (CNYm) Relative 77.0 (0.9) 30.3 43.7 96.9 Dec-12 Dec-13 3,984 5,813 8,577 11,252 13,274 Reported net profit (CNYm) 346 440 668 882 1,085 Recurring net profit (CNYm) 350 440 668 882 1,085 Recurring net profit growth (%) 44.8 25.7 51.7 32.1 23.0 Recurring EPS (CNY) 0.36 0.44 0.63 0.83 1.02 Kong Yong Ng +852 2103 5844 DPS (CNY) 0.11 0.12 0.18 0.24 0.30 ng.kong.yong@rhbgroup.com Recurring P/E (x) 29.1 23.9 16.8 12.7 10.3 P/B (x) 5.52 4.07 3.50 2.95 2.48 P/CF (x) 25.4 17.0 23.1 14.1 9.9 1.0 1.1 1.7 2.3 2.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 26.8 20.3 14.9 10.9 8.6 Return on average equity (%) 19.4 18.5 21.6 24.3 25.1 Shariah compliant Christopher Tse +852 2103 9415 christopher.tse@rhbgroup.com Dividend Yield (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash 18.0 18.9 23.3 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 . 2 0 . 3 0 0 . 2 0 0 What’s new? . 0 0 Sunny Optical (Sunny) released its October shipment numbers: 0 i) handset camera modules (HCM) surged 99% YoY and rose 5% MoM (Sep 2014: +36% YoY), ii) total handset lens sets (HLS) jumped 308% YoY but slowed 4% MoM (Sep 2014: +167% YoY), and iii) vehicle lens sets (VLS) rose 80% YoY and 9% MoM (Sep 2014: +13% YoY). 25 Source: Bloomberg Powered by EFATM Platform 6 Results Review, 21 November 2014 AEON (AEON MK) Neutral (Maintained) Consumer Cyclical - Retail Market Cap: USD1,464m Target Price: Price: MYR3.67 MYR3.51 Macro Risks Affected By Higher Operating Costs Growth Value AEON (AEON MK) Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 4.20 106 4.00 101 3.80 97 3.60 93 3.40 88 3.20 84 3.00 79 2.80 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 75 0 0 . 1 0 0 AEON’s 9M14 core earnings of MYR137.4m missed expectations, at . 0 54.3%/57.5% of our/consensus full-year estimates. We attribute this to 0 higher utilities and promotional expenses, as well as initial start-up 0 costs for new stores. Maintain NEUTRAL with a revised DCF-based TP of MYR3.67 (4.6% upside). We cut our FY14/FY15 earnings forecasts by 20.5%/19.2% respectively. Oct-14 Jul-14 Mar-14 May-14 110 Jan-14 4.40 Nov-13 Vol m Price Close Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) 1.14m/0.35m 2.3 4.6 2.97 - 4.21 10 1,404 AEON Co Aberdeen Asset Mngt EPF 51.0 19.8 8.6 1 . 1 0 . 2 Better sales. AEON’s 9M14 revenue grew 5.9% YoY, mainly driven by: i) better turnover from the retail segment (+5.5% YoY) given improved performance from its existing stores and contribution from its new stores, and ii) higher revenue from the property management segment (+8.2% YoY) due to contribution from its new shopping centres, higher rental rates and sales commissions from tenant revamp in some of its existing malls. However, 9M14 core earnings fell 11.6% YoY, largely due to higher utilities and promotional expenses, coupled with initial costs incurred from new store openings. To date, AEON has opened two new malls in Bukit Mertajam and Taiping, as well as a new store in Quill City Mall, Kuala Lumpur. Compared to 2Q14, 3Q14 revenue improved 8.5% but earnings declined 7.1%. Lower margins. 9M14 EBIT margin decreased to 7.3% from 8.5% a year ago, mainly attributed to weaker margin from the retail business (-200bps YoY). Property management’s margin, on other hand, trended higher to 43.1% from 38.5% a year ago. Earnings revision and risks. We believe the retail industry may continue to face challenges from weak consumer sentiment. Hence, we cut our FY14 and FY15 earnings forecasts by 20.5% and 19.2% respectively. We also introduce our FY16 figures. Key risks include weaker consumer sentiment and the emergence of new competitors within the retail landscape. Maintain NEUTRAL. We adjust our DCF-based TP to MYR3.67 (from MYR15.60), after factoring in the enlarged share base of 1,404m shares, post-bonus issue and share split exercise (completed in May 2014). Our TP is based on a lower WACC of 8.3% (from 8.7%), in line with RHB’s revised valuation assumptions. Maintain NEUTRAL. Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Forecasts and Valuations Absolute 0.3 (4.6) (12.3) (6.5) (8.2) Total turnover (MYRm) Relative 2.6 (5.8) (9.4) (3.5) (9.6) Shariah compliant Alexander Chia +603 9207 7621 alexander.chia@rhbgroup.com Malaysia Research +603 9207 7660 research2@rhbgroup.com Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F 3,256 3,514 3,769 3,997 4,314 Reported net profit (MYRm) 212 231 201 220 297 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 212 231 201 220 297 Recurring net profit growth (%) 21.3 8.8 (13.0) 9.2 35.1 Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.15 0.16 0.14 0.16 0.21 DPS (MYR) 0.23 0.22 0.05 0.06 0.08 Recurring P/E (x) 23.2 21.3 24.5 22.4 16.6 P/B (x) 3.35 3.00 2.79 2.59 2.36 P/CF (x) 12.3 11.0 13.8 10.3 8.1 6.6 6.3 1.6 1.7 2.3 9.86 9.21 8.62 8.05 6.06 15.4 14.9 11.8 12.0 14.9 Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash (13.1) (12.6) 0.7 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 7 Results Review, 21 November 2014 Genting Plantations (GENP MK) Buy (Maintained) Agriculture - Plantation Market Cap: USD2,396m Target Price: Price: MYR11.60 MYR10.46 Macro Risks Indonesia The Growth Catalyst Growth Value Genting Plantation (GENP MK) Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 12.0 103 11.5 99 11.0 96 10.5 92 10.0 89 9.5 4 85 0 0 . 2 0 0 GP’s 9M14 earnings were in line, with continued strength seen from its . 0 Indonesian plantations. Maintain BUY and SOP-based TP of MYR11.60 0 (11% upside), as we believe GP’s strong FFB production growth would 0 help offset the lower CPO prices somewhat. We also highlight that stripping out the RNAV of the company’s property landbank from its current market capitalisation would bring its P/E down by 5-6x. In line. Genting Plantations’ (GP) 9M14 core net profit was within our and consensus estimates, ie 73-76% of FY14 forecasts. GP’s 9M14 core net profit grew 18% YoY, while its turnover rose 9%. The net profit increase was due to a 6% YoY rise in CPO average price, a 46% rise in palm kernel (PK) average price and a 12% rise in fresh fruit bunches (FFB) production, as well as an estimated 4% YoY fall in production cost. In addition, GP recorded some industrial and commercial property land sales during the period, which resulted in a 3% YoY increase in property contributions. 3 3 2 2 Oct-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 1 Nov-13 Vol m 1 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) 4.26m/1.32m 4.8 10.9 9.70 - 11.6 30 758.85 Genting Berhad EPFund Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) 53.6 14.9 3.1 Share Performance (%) Briefing highlights: i) GP maintains its FY14 FFB projection growth of 10-12% YoY, which is in line with our projected 12% for FY14. For FY15, GP expects FFB production to grow about 13%, in line with our 13.7% projection, ii) its 9M14 production cost was down 4% YoY to MYR1,370/tonne. GP expects costs to rise in FY15 due to lower PK credit and higher fertiliser prices, iii) GP continues to target new planting of 3,500ha in FY14 and 6,000ha in FY15, in line with our expectations, and iv) its unbilled property sales currently total MYR62m, while it expects to record some MYR142m worth of industrial lot land sales in 4Q14. No changes to our forecasts. We highlight that every MYR100/tonne change in CPO price could impact the company’s net profit by 5-7% per annum. Maintain BUY. We maintain our SOP-based TP of MYR11.60 based on an unchanged 18x CY15 target P/E for the plantation division and RNAV of property development landbank. Maintain BUY, as we believe GP’s strong FFB production growth would help offset the lower CPO prices somewhat. We also highlight that stripping out the RNAV of the company’s property landbank from its current market capitalisation would bring its P/E down by 5-6x. YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Forecasts and Valuations Absolute (5.3) 4.2 4.4 (5.8) (4.7) Total turnover (MYRm) Relative (3.0) 3.0 7.3 (2.8) (6.1) Shariah compliant Hoe Lee Leng +603 9207 7605 hoe.lee.leng@rhbgroup.com Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F 1,233 1,384 1,555 1,753 1,906 Reported net profit (MYRm) 361 228 306 390 448 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 355 299 306 390 448 (18.8) (15.9) 2.5 27.3 15.0 Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.47 0.39 0.40 0.51 0.59 DPS (MYR) 0.09 0.36 0.09 0.10 0.12 Recurring P/E (x) 22.3 26.6 25.9 20.4 17.7 P/B (x) 2.32 2.32 2.17 2.02 2.06 P/CF (x) 35.4 23.9 65.1 18.6 15.8 0.9 3.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 17.6 18.8 17.9 14.3 12.9 10.9 6.7 8.6 10.3 11.5 1.0 9.9 11.6 22.3 (8.3) (3.1) (7.7) Recurring net profit growth (%) Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 . 2 0 . 2 Source: Company data, RHB net cash Powered by EFATM Platform 8 Results Review, 20 November 2014 Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK MK) Neutral (Maintained) Agriculture - Plantation Market Cap: USD7,290m Target Price: Price: MYR20.70 MYR23.00 Macro Risks Weaker Manufacturing Contributions Growth Value Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK MK) Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 26.0 106 25.0 102 24.0 99 23.0 95 22.0 92 21.0 88 20.0 85 19.0 3 81 0 0 . 2 0 0 KLK’s FY14 (Sep) results were within our expectations but below . 0 consensus. Stronger profits from the plantation division offset weaker 0 contributions from the manufacturing and property divisions. While we 0 like the company’s strong management and steady growth strategy, we keep our NEUTRAL call with a revised SOP-based TP of MYR20.70 from MYR21.30 (10% downside), as valuations remain fair at current levels. 2 2 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 1 Nov-13 Vol m 1 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) 11.5m/3.57m -0.9 -10.0 20.0 - 25.0 40 1,065 Batu Kawan Bhd Employees Provident Fund 46.6 13.6 In line. Kuala Lumpur Kepong’s (KLK) FY14 profit was in line with our expectations, but below consensus expectations, coming in at 82% of FY14 forecasts. KLK declared a final net DPS of 40 sen, bringing FY14 net DPS to 55 sen (FY13: 50 sen), translating into a net payout of 59% and a net yield of 2.4%. Plantation unit the saviour. KLK’s FY14 core net profit grew 10.1% YoY on the back of a 21.7% YoY rise in revenue. This was mainly due to improved profitability at the plantation unit, which saw EBIT surging 28.3% YoY, buoyed by higher CPO (+5.3%) and palm kernel (PK) (+43%) prices and higher FFB production (+3.5%), offset by weaker contributions from its manufacturing division, due to negative margins at the refineries and kernel crushing plants. Forecasts. After updating our forecasts for FY14 results, we lower our FY15-16 earnings forecasts by a slight 1.5-3% and introduce our FY17 forecasts. Maintain NEUTRAL. With the seasonal peak season almost over, we believe CPO prices have a window of opportunity to strengthen between now and 1Q15, which would bode well for companies like KLK, as we estimate every MYR100/tonne change in CPO price could affect its earnings by 4-6% per annum. After updating for KLK’s latest net debt, we lower our TP to MYR20.70 (from MYR21.30) and maintain our NEUTRAL call. Forecasts and Valuations Share Performance (%) 2 . 2 0 . 2 Total turnover (MYRm) Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15F Sep-16F Sep-17F 9,147 11,130 13,244 13,821 13,898 YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Reported net profit (MYRm) 918 986 1,183 1,398 1,478 Absolute (7.6) 13.7 (0.5) (7.7) (7.0) Recurring net profit (MYRm) 918 990 1,183 1,398 1,478 Relative (5.0) 12.0 2.4 (4.0) (7.6) Recurring net profit growth (%) (16.7) 7.9 19.5 18.1 5.8 Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.86 0.93 1.11 1.31 1.38 DPS (MYR) 0.50 0.55 0.65 0.70 0.65 Recurring P/E (x) 26.7 24.8 20.7 17.6 16.6 P/B (x) 3.26 3.17 2.98 2.76 2.54 P/CF (x) 19.0 32.2 20.6 15.4 12.7 2.2 2.4 2.8 3.0 2.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.9 13.9 12.1 10.4 9.9 Return on average equity (%) 12.5 12.9 14.8 16.3 15.9 7.3 19.7 22.2 20.1 14.3 (8.4) (0.0) 0.0 Shariah compliant Hoe Lee Leng +603 9207 7605 hoe.lee.leng@rhbgroup.com Dividend Yield (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 9 Results Review, 21 November 2014 Mah Sing (MSGB MK) Neutral (Maintained) Property- Real Estate Market Cap: USD1,015m Target Price: Price: MYR2.41 MYR2.31 Macro Risks Rights Issue To Pay Off Landbank Growth Value Mah Sing (MSGB MK) Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 2.70 120 2.60 116 2.50 113 2.40 109 2.30 105 2.20 101 2.10 98 2.00 94 1.90 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 90 Oct-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) 3.09m/0.95m 32.5 4.3 2.02 - 2.59 49 1,476 Tan Sri Leong Hoy Kum EPF Felda 35.0 9.2 6.4 Share Performance (%) Within expectations. Mah Sing’s 3Q14 results came in within our and market expectations. EBIT margin was stable from last quarter, but lower compared to last year’s levels. MYR900m new sales in 3Q14. New sales in 3Q achieved MYR900m, from MYR780m in 2Q, bringing 9M total to MYR2.45bn, about 68% of Mah Sing’s full-year target of MYR3.6bn 9M sales were mainly contributed by Meridin @ Meidni (MYR314m), Southville Bangi (MYR580m), Icon City (MYR225m), D’sara Sentral (MYR235m) and Lakeville Residence (MYR260m). Equity call. Mah Sing has called for rights issue together with free warrants to raise up to MYR630m. The deal is sweetened by a 1-for-4 bonus issue post-rights and warrants. More than 80% of the proceeds will be used to pay off new acquisitions of land, including the Rantau land and Puchong land, with combined land cost of over MYR1bn. The amount to be raised is roughly 18% of Mah Sing’s current market cap. The entitlement basis for the rights shares and warrants has not been fixed, but according to the announcement, it could either be 1-for-5 for the rights and 1-for-3 for the warrants, or 3-for-10 for the rights and 3-for10 for the warrants. The issue price is expected to be at a discount of at least 20% to the theoretical ex-rights price. Forecasts. Based on our assumption of a 3-for-10 entitlement basis for the rights, our FY15-16 earnings are diluted by 4% and 18%. Meanwhile, unbilled sales increased to MYR5.1bn (vs MYR4.79bn in 2Q14). Maintain NEUTRAL. After factoring our assumption of 3-for-10 rights into our RNAV estimate, our TP is lowered to MYR2.41 (from MYR2.71), based on an unchanged 15% discount to RNAV. Note that we have not imputed the impact of warrants and bonus issue in our valuations. YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m 2.2 (2.1) (4.6) 2.2 6.0 Forecasts and Valuations 4.6 Total turnover (MYRm) Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F 1,775 2,006 2,398 3,010 3,233 Reported net profit (MYRm) 231 281 334 409 430 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 231 281 334 409 430 Recurring net profit growth (%) 36.8 21.7 19.2 22.3 5.2 Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.28 0.20 0.23 0.22 0.22 Loong Kok Wen, CFA +603 9207 7614 DPS (MYR) 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.10 loong.kok.wen@rhbgroup.com Recurring P/E (x) 8.3 11.4 10.1 10.4 10.4 1.54 1.64 1.54 1.76 1.68 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.2 19.9 17.6 16.1 17.7 16.9 Absolute Relative 4.5 (3.3) (1.7) 5.2 Shariah compliant P/B (x) Dividend Yield (%) Return on average equity (%) Return on average assets (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) 7.2 6.9 6.9 7.5 7.1 25.3 15.4 13.2 15.4 16.7 1.8 (15.9) (17.6) Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 . 3 0 . 3 0 0 . 2 0 0 Mah Sing’s 3Q14 results met expectations. 3Q new sales hit MYR900m, . 0 up from MYR780m in 2Q, on track to hit its MYR3.6bn sales target. In 0 conjunction with the results, the company has called for a rights issue 0 exercise to raise about MYR630m. The proceeds will largely be utilised for landbanking. Assuming a 3-for-10 entitlement basis for the rights, our TP is lowered to MYR2.41 (4.3% upside). Maintain NEUTRAL. Nov-13 Vol m Price Close Powered by EFATM Platform 10 Results Review, 21 November 2014 CB Industrial Product Holding (CBP MK) Agriculture - Plantation Market Cap: USD344m Neutral (from Take Profit) Target Price: Price: MYR2.10 MYR2.18 Macro Risks Upgrade To NEUTRAL Growth Value CB Industrial Product Holding (CBP MK) Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 2.60 169 2.40 156 2.20 142 2.00 129 1.80 116 1.60 102 1.40 6 89 0 0 . 2 0 0 CBIP’s 9M14 results were within expectations, with no major surprises. . 0 Given the relatively smaller downside risk to our TP now, we upgrade 0 the stock to NEUTRAL. We adjust our SOP-based TP to MYR2.10 (from 0 MYR4.10), 3.7% downside, after taking into account the bonus issue and CBIP’s latest net cash. We await the next earnings catalyst, ie the patent approval and commercialisation of its zero-discharge mill. 5 4 3 Oct-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 1 Nov-13 Vol m 2 Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Share outstanding (m) Shareholders (%) 1.39m/0.43m 103.2 -3.7 1.54 - 2.54 60 530 Lim Chai Beng & family 40.0 2 . 1 0 . 1 In line. CB Industrial Product’s (CBIP) 9M14 core net profit was in line with our and consensus estimates, at 68-69% of FY14 forecasts. 9M14 core net profit up 12.6% YoY, revenue down 8.1% YoY. The decline in its topline was mainly due to a 47.4% drop in revenue from the vehicle retrofitting division due to lower project completion during the period. This, however, was offset by a 22.6% rise in the oil mill engineering division driven by higher project billing. Despite lower topline numbers, the company’s core net profit rose, bolstered by higher margins at the vehicle retrofitting division of 10.2% (vs 9.3% in 9M13) and lower start-up losses at the plantation division of -MYR6.5m (from -MYR7.4m in 9M13), offset by lower margins of 22.9% (from 24.1% in 9M13) at the oil mill engineering division. Forecasts. We keep our earnings forecasts unchanged. However, we update our share base and our TP following CBIP’s newly-completed 1for-1 bonus issue. Upgrade to NEUTRAL. Although we continue to like CBIP’s business prospects, we think the potential tax impact from the expiry of its pioneer tax status in Feb 2015 could dampen its earnings growth. Since August, the share price has fallen approximately 10-11%. Given the relatively smaller downside risk now, we upgrade the stock to NEUTRAL (from Take Profit). We adjust our SOP-based TP to MYR2.10 (from MYR4.10), after taking into account the bonus issue and CBIP’s latest net cash. We continue to watch out for the next earnings catalyst, which would be the patent approval and commercialisation of its zero-discharge mill. Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 35.8 (7.2) (10.3) (4.2) 38.4 Relative 38.1 (8.4) (7.4) (1.2) 37.0 Shariah compliant Forecasts and Valuations Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Dec-16F Total turnover (MYRm) 540 590 611 548 577 Reported net profit (MYRm) 240 98 96 84 87 Recurring net profit (MYRm) 97.7 98.4 96.0 84.4 86.9 Recurring net profit growth (%) (6.6) 0.7 (2.4) (12.1) 2.9 Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.47 0.36 0.23 0.15 0.16 DPS (MYR) 0.15 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.08 4.6 6.1 9.4 14.2 13.8 1.20 1.03 1.89 1.78 1.67 7.1 9.7 13.2 12.5 6.9 4.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 2.33 3.37 7.09 9.42 9.52 54.6 18.2 15.8 12.9 12.5 Hoe Lee Leng +603 9207 7605 Recurring P/E (x) hoe.lee.leng@rhbgroup.com P/B (x) P/CF (x) Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) na net cash net cash net cash 29.3 5.8 14.4 (9.7) (16.9) Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM Platform 11 RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. 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