1. No category

Weekly Credit Update
7 June 2016
Analysts
Brian Børsting
+45 45 12 85 19
brbr@danskebank.com
Katrine Jensen
+45 45 12 80 56
katri@danskebank.com
This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research
reports prepared for retail investors.
Investment Research
www.danskebank.com/CI
Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 34 of this report
Contents
- General credit market news and current themes
- Scandi high yield
- Scandi investment grade
- Credit indicators
- Coverage universe, credit ratings and recommendations
2
What's on our minds
- General credit market news
• New issuances were high on the agenda last week as many
issuers took advantage of the high demand. However, iTraxx Main
widened 6bp over the week, while iTraxx Crossover widened
25bp. We expect the coming period to become more volatile with
the UK referendum approaching along with the normal summer
slowdown.
• Moody’s has downgraded Finland from Aaa/S to Aa1/S due to ‘the
significant economic challenges facing the Finnish economy’. We
note that despite the downgrade this will, in our view, not lead to
any rating action on Fingrid, Fortum, OP Corporate Bank, Aktia or
Sampo plc despite these companies receiving one additional
notch due to government support.
• The Swedish FSA has commented on the Swedish MREL
proposal, stating that it generally believes the proposal could
cause a refinancing risk for Swedish banks. The FSA believes the
MREL level should be lower than the suggested double-the-totalcapital-requirement level (SREP), should skip the automatic link to
capital requirements and, finally, should consist less of debt and
more of own funds. We expect the National Debt Office to take
these comments into consideration. Along with the comments on
the MREL proposal, the FSA once again stated its concerns about
the Swedish government's proposed changes to tax deductibility
for interest expenses on certain sub-debt and the current
limitations for Swedish banks actually to start issuing
subordinated senior debt (Tier 3) due to the documentation.
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets (both charts)
3
Scandi high yield
4
Buy NOKIA 2019 USD, trading at a wide margin to Nokia 2019 EUR
Published on 23 May 2016
Key arguments for the trade
•
Large spread to the ‘BBB-’ industrial curve and EUR
bonds. The USD-denominated NOKIA 2019s are trading
at a good pickup relative to both the EUR-denominated
NOKIA 2019s and the ‘BBB-’ industrials curve.
•
The indicative spread between the USD- and EURdenominated NOKIA 2019s is c.20 basis points for a
three-month maturity extension when adjusting for both
bid-ask and cross currency (see chart below left).
•
History suggests the spread differential between the
two bonds will tighten over time (see chart below right).
Relative value (EUR), indicative mid spreads
•
Potential further upside from investment grade status.
Nokia is likely to be investment grade medium term. S&P
recently affirmed its positive outlook on Nokia’s ‘BB+’
rating, stating potential for an upgrade to ‘BBB-’ within six
to 12 months, given a successful integration with Alcatel
and performance in line with peers. So far, both criteria
have been met and Nokia recently upgraded its expectation
for synergies arising from the Alcatel-Lucent merger.
•
See Credit Update: Nokia – Decent margins but outlook
still soft, 11 May.
•
See Trade Idea: Buy Nokia USD 5.375% 2019 outright
or fund by selling Nokia EUR 6.75% 2019, 23 May.
Credit spread development
ASW Issue
Currency
Spread
(EUR)*
300
200
Industrials BBB180
250
160
200
NOKIA
(Ba2/BB+)
5.375% '19
(USD) (ask)
140
120
100
Industrials BBB
ERICB
(Baa1/BBB+)
4.125% '22
(USD) (mid)
150
Industrials
BBB+
NOKIA
(Ba2/BB+)
6.75% '19 (EUR)
(bid)
80
50
60
1
2
3
4
5
100
6
7
8
9
10
11
YTW
12 **
* Z-spreads. Discount margin for floaters. Swapped to indicated currency. ** Years-to-worst
Note: Fair value curve(s) based on Danske Bank Markets' (mid) peer group of European issuers
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
0
May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016
NOKIA USD 5.375% 2019
NOKIA EUR 6.75% 2019
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
Recent trade ideas (high yield)
Type
Outright
Trade
Buy Nokia USD 5.375% 2019
Switch
Idea
The USD-denominated NOKIA 2019s trade at a
good pickup relative to both the EUR-denominated
NOKIA 2019s and the ‘BBB-’ industrials curve.
Opened
23 May 2016
The USD-denominated NOKIA 2019s trade at a good
pickup relative to both the EUR-denominated NOKIA
2019s and the ‘BBB-’ industrials curve.
Opened
23 May 2016
Outright
Buy Nokia USD 5.375% 2019
outright and fund by selling Nokia
EUR 6.75% 2019
Sell Stena 6.125% 2017 (EUR)
Valuation no longer attractive after strong performance.
Opened
14 Mar 2016
Outright
Buy Nynas FRN 2018 (SEK)
Opened
7 Mar 2016
Outright
Buy Tallink NOK 2018 FRN
Current metrics position Nynas’s shadow rating closer to
‘BB-’ than ‘B+’, making the 18s look very cheap relative to
the ‘B+’ fair value curve.
Trading at an attractive spread following recent
Widening.
Opened
17 Feb 2016
Outright
Buy Stena EUR2017
Attractive valuation for the 2017 bond. We remain
underweight all other Stena bonds
Opened
14 Jan 2016
Outright
Buy SSAB EUR2019
The SSAB EUR2019 currently trades at very attractive
levels compared with other outstanding SSAB bonds and
with the current ‘BB-’ rating from S&P.
Opened
13 Jan 2016
Outright
Buy Norwegian Air Shuttle
EUR2019
The Norwegian Air Shuttle EUR2019 currently trades at
very attractive levels compared with other outstanding
NAS bonds and with our ‘B+/NO’ shadow rating.
Opened
07 Dec 2015
Source: Danske Bank Markets
See the end of this document for a list of our coverage including shadow ratings and recommendations.
6
Best and worst performers (Nordic coverage universe)
- High yield
1 month in local currencies
YTD in local currencies
-912
BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2017
-471 Fred Olsen Energy ASA NOK 2019
-769
Teekay Offshore Partners LP NOK 2019
-282 Teekay Offshore Partners LP/Teekay…
-577
Teekay Offshore Partners LP NOK 2018
-226 Odfjell SE NOK 2017
-539
Teekay Offshore Partners LP NOK 2017
-160 SSAB AB EUR 2019
-406
J Lauritzen A/S NOK 2017
-131 Hoist Kredit AB EUR 2017
-292
Seadrill Ltd USD 2017
-128 Color Group AS NOK 2017
-266
BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2018
-117 Outokumpu OYJ EUR 2019
-183
Seadrill Ltd USD 2020
-113 SSAB AB SEK 2019
-178
Seadrill Ltd SEK 2019
-92
Odfjell SE NOK 2018
-175
BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2019
-75
Color Group AS NOK 2019
600
Olympic Ship AS NOK 2019
2,526
Seadrill Ltd NOK 2018
940
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019
2,610
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018
1,198
Solstad Offshore ASA NOK 2019
2,807
Farstad Shipping ASA NOK 2018
1,417
Olympic Ship AS NOK 2017
3,112
Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd USD…
1,598
Farstad Shipping ASA NOK 2018
3,606
Olympic Ship AS NOK 2017
2,747
Prosafe SE NOK 2019
5,199
Prosafe SE NOK 2020
2,767
Prosafe SE NOK 2020
5,397
Prosafe SE NOK 2019
3,134
Farstad Shipping ASA NOK 2017
7,029
Prosafe SE NOK 2018
3,167
Prosafe SE NOK 2018
Prosafe SE NOK 2017
17,965
20000 15000 10000 5000
0
-5000
Change in local currencies (bp)
7,936
25000
Farstad Shipping ASA NOK 2017
Prosafe SE NOK 2017
28,257
15000
5000
-5000
Change in local currencies (bp)
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets (both charts)
7
Danske Bank Markets Nordic High-Yield Index
• We saw a significant widening in the iTraxx Crossover of
some 25bp last week. At the time of the deadline for this
publication, iTraxx Crossover traded around 330bp.
• The credit spread (ASW) on our Danske Bank Markets
High-Yield Index showed a moderate tightening of 3bp
over the week ending Friday 3 June. Year-to-date, we
have experienced a spread tightening of some 38bp.
• Last week saw a SEK1bn new transaction from Sodra
Skogsagarna, a Swedish forest and paper products
company. We expect more transactions on the Scandi
High Yield market before the summer break.
Danske Bank Markets Nordic High-Yield Index
106.0
625
600
575
550
525
500
475
450
425
400
375
350
325
300
104.0
102.0
100.0
98.0
96.0
94.0
Dec/2014
May/2015
Oct/2015
Mar/2016
DBM Hedged EUR Nordic HY Index Value
DBM Nordic HY Index, ASW-spread (bps). RHS
Key index statistics
Date
Yield
ASW spread, bps
# Bonds
AVG credit rating
Avg duration
TR since start
TR YTD
TR MTD
Index sector breakdown
Index start
Index end
Change
31/Dec/2014 20/May/2016
4.7%
430
478
47
107
BB
2.8
4.3%
2.9%
0.1%
Real
estate
13%
Technolog
y
2%
Basic
Materials
12%
Communi
cations
8%
Utilities
7%
Consumer
, non-cycli.
10%
Consumer
, Cyclical
9%
Industrial
20%
Energy
12%
Diversifie
d
5%
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets [all tables and charts]
8
Recent Nordic high-yield issuance
Selected new issues (High Yield)
Date
Issuer
Coupon
CCY Volume
Maturity
S&P / Mdy / Fitch
ASW/DM
30/05/2016
Sodra Skogsagarna
STIB3M +160bps
SEK
25/05/2016
Klovern Ab
STIB3M +415bps
SEK
1 000 m
Jun/21
/ /
160
750 m
Jun/20
/ /
415
25/05/2016
Hoist Kredit Ab
3.125%
EUR
250 m
Dec/19
/ Ba2 /*+ /
322
20/05/2016
Stromma Turism & Sjofart
STIB3M +590bps
SEK
300 m
May/21
/ /
590
19/05/2016
Sanoma Oyj
3.5%
EUR
200 m
Nov/19
/ /
399
19/05/2016
Opus Group Ab
STIB3M +475bps
SEK
500 m
May/21
/ /
475
17/05/2016
Aspo Oyj (Hybrid)
6.75%
EUR
25 m
PERP
/ /
500
11/05/2016
Corem Property Grp Ab
STIB3M +475bps
SEK
300 m
Nov/19
/ /
475
11/05/2016
Volvo Car Ab
3.25%
EUR
500 m
May/21
BB / (P)Ba3 /
363
10/05/2016
Sbab Bank Ab (AT1)
5.052%
SEK
775 m
PERP
BB+ / Ba2 /
475
10/05/2016
Sbab Bank Ab (AT1)
STIB3M +475bps
SEK
725 m
PERP
BB+ / Ba2 /
475
29/04/2016
Ssm Holding Ab
STIB3M +800bps
SEK
400 m
May/20
/ /
800
29/04/2016
Corral Petroleum Holding
12.25%
SEK
500 m
May/21
B/ / B
1256
29/04/2016
Corral Petroleum Holding
11.75%
EUR
570 m
May/21
B/ / B
1244
22/04/2016
Magnolia Bostad Ab
STIB3M +625bps
SEK
600 m
Apr/20
/ /
625
15/04/2016
Millicom Intl Cellular
STIB3M +330bps
SEK
2 000 m
Apr/19
/ Ba1 / BB+
330
14/04/2016
D Carnegie & Co Ab
STIB3M +400bps
SEK
1 000 m
Apr/19
/ /
400
17/03/2016
Outotec Oyj (Hybrid)
7.375%
EUR
150 m
PERP
/ /
1233
16/03/2016
Srv Yhtiot Oyj
6.875%
EUR
100 m
Mar/21
/ /
680
14/03/2016
Alm Equity Ab
STIB3M +675bps
SEK
325 m
Mar/20
/ /
675
09/03/2016
Srv Yhtiot Oyj (Hybrid)
8.75%
EUR
45 m
PERP
/ /
882
16/02/2016
Studsvik Ab
STIB3M +650bps
SEK
300 m
Feb/19
/ /
650
03/02/2016
Scandi Biogas Fuels
STIB3M +975bps
SEK
200 m
Feb/20
/ /
975
25/01/2016
Moberg Pharma
STIB3M +600bps
SEK
300 m
Jan/21
/ /
600
15/12/2015
Bulk Industrier As
NIBOR3M +700bps
NOK
200 m
Dec/18
/ /
700
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
9
Company news from the past week (high yield)
Name
News
Implication
Stora Enso
Stora Enso (UW): Has agreed to divest Suzhou Mill in China to the Chinese government for EUR240m.
The divestment will decrease annual sales by EUR125m with a minimal EBIT impact. The high sales
price is likely to be related to an increase in land values. Adjusted net debt to EBITDA should fall from
3.2x to 3.0x (LTM Q1 16). In our view, this is slightly credit positive overall.
Credit positive
Norwegian Air
Shuttle
Norwegian (B+/B) has released traffic figures for May. Passenger traffic rose 15% y/y, with capacity
up 11% y/y. In total, the load factor was 88% – up 3% y/y. This is solid and indicates that the new longhaul routes have been well received by customers. Another indicator of this is that average ticket
prices decreased by only 3% y/y despite growth in long haul, where ticket prices per kilometre flown
are lower. All in all, it was a solid performance by Norwegian in May. Bonds are trading between the 'B'
and 'B+' industrial curve, which is fair, in our view.
Credit positive
Klövern
Klövern showed good growth in rental income and operating earnings in Q1, due mainly to earlier
acquisitions but also to some positive effects from net moving in and somewhat lower operating costs.
Transaction activity was low in Q1, meaning that credit metrics strengthened somewhat. Klövern
reiterated that it has become increasingly selective when it comes to acquisitions and is currently
investigating potential divestments of certain fully developed properties. We maintain our view of
Klövern as a ‘BB+’ credit with stable outlook, with its unsecured bonds one notch lower at ‘BB’.
Credit positive
Stena
Following a credit neutral Q1 16, we continue to expect a significant fall in group free cash flow in
coming years due to the very harsh market conditions in the oil services business, softer conditions in
the Shipping division and our expectation of continued high capex levels. Without any mitigating asset
sales or capital injections (not budgeted or expected currently), the refinancing risk could increase and
leverage (adjusted net debt/adjusted EBITDA) could increase to a ‘distressed’ level around 10x in
2017. Therefore, we continue to see heightened credit risk in the name and reiterate our Underweight
recommendation on all Stena's issued bonds.
Credit neutral
Stora Enso
Stora Enso (UW): Divesting its fine paper mill in Kabel, Germany for EUR23m. Stora will book a loss of
EUR15m in its Q3 16 results. The deal is set to reduce Stora's graphic paper capacity by 485,000tpa
and annual sales by EUR300m. However, there will be no material impact on EBIT. The divestment is a
further step in reducing graphic paper exposure so this is slightly positive for the business risk profile.
Credit positive
Source: Danske Bank Markets
10
Company news from the past week (high yield)
Name
News
Borsen reports that SAS has sent a letter to the US transport ministry alleging that Norwegian Air
Shuttle (NAS) will take advantage of its Irish base to apply that country's more lenient labour
standards for US routes, citing excerpts from the letter. In response to Borsen, Norwegian Air has said
Norwegian Air
the allegations are untrue. In our view, all national flag carriers (US based and SAS) are trying to
Shuttle and SAS
prevent NAS from getting US permission, as this would increase competitive pressure. NAS already
has preliminary clearance and it is likely to be permanent within months. Overall, there is nothing new
in this.
Implication
Credit neutral
Source: Danske Bank Markets
11
Scandi investment grade
12
Trade idea – A. P. Moller - Maersk
Published on 3 June 2016
Key arguments for the trade
•
We recommend buying the EUR2021 outright, as it is
trading wider than the ‘BBB-’ industrial curve compared
with Maersk's current ‘BBB+/NO’ rating by S&P.
•
We would also recommend a switch between the EUR
2021 (buy) and the EUR 2019 (sell). The pickup is c.40bp
for around 1.5 years of maturity extension.
•
We believe Maersk is committed to keeping financial ratios
commensurate with a 'strong investment grade credit
rating' as defined in the company's financial policy. We
believe this will limit the size of potential acquisitions.
•
Historically, Maersk has kept reported net debt-to-EBITDA in
the 0.5-2.0x range. When the financial crisis hit in 2009,
Maersk sold treasury shares to keep the leverage within this
range. We believe this shows a prudent capital policy.
•
A reported net debt to EBITDA at the top end of the historical
leverage range (2.0x) corresponds to adjusted debt to
EBITDA of around 2.5x, which is the maximum level set out by
S&P for the current ‘BBB+’ rating.
•
We believe increased idling of container vessels will start to
support container freight rates and Maersk Line’s earnings in
H2 16 and going into 2017. We believe this will ease the
market's fear of significantly higher leverage.
•
See Trade Idea: A. P.Moller - Maersk EUR 2021, 3 June.
Relative value (EUR), indicative mid spreads
Credit spread development
Mid Spread
(EUR)*
• Currency
180
ASW Issue
160
160
140
Industrials BBB120
MAERSK
(Baa1/BBB+)
1.75% '21 (EUR)
100
MAERSK
(Baa1/BBB+) 1.5%
'22 (EUR)
120
Industrials BBB
100
Industrials BBB+
80
60
40
20
MAERSK
(Baa1/BBB+)
4.375% '17 (EUR)
20
0
1
2
3
4
80
60
MAERSK
(Baa1/BBB+)
3.375% '19 (EUR)
40
140
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
YTW**
* Z-spreads. Discount margin for floaters. Swapped to indicated currency. ** Years-to-worst
Note: Fair value curve(s) based on Danske Bank Markets' (mid) peer group of European
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
0
Mar-2016
Apr-2016
Apr-2016
MAERSK EUR 1.75% 2021
MAERSK EUR 1.5% 2022
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
May-2016
May-2016
May-2016
MAERSK EUR 3.375% 2019
MAERSK EUR 4.375% 2017
Recent trade ideas (investment grade)
Type
Switch
Outright
Trade
Buy Maersk EUR 2021 and fund
by selling Maersk EUR 2019
Buy Maersk EUR 2021
Idea
Outright
Buy Carlsberg EUR 2024
Carlsberg 2024 is trading significantly wider than the
consumer goods ‘BBB’ curve
Opened
27 May 2016
Switch
Buy Carlsberg EUR 2024 and
fund it by selling Carlsberg EUR
2019
Carlsberg 2024 is trading significantly wider than the
consumer goods ‘BBB’ curve, while Carlsberg 2019 is
priced within the consumer goods ‘BBB’ curve.
Opened
27 May 2016
Outright
Buy Kemira 2019s and 2022s
(EUR)
The Kemira (Danske Bank Markets: ‘BBB-’) 2019s and
2022s trade at a wide differential to rated peers.
Despite Kemira’s unrated status, we believe this
differential is too large.
Opened
2 May 2016
Outright
Buy Danfoss 1.375% 2022
(EUR)
The spread on the DNFSDC 22s trades wider than the
‘BBB’ fair value curve and is rated ‘BBB’ with stable
outlook by S&P.
Opened
18 Apr 2016
Outright
Buy DSV DKK 2020 and 2022s
The 2022s and the 2020 bonds are trading at 120bp
and 108bp spreads to the ‘BBB’ industrial curve,
respectively. Even taking into account the unrated status
of the bonds and a relatively low liquidity, we believe this
is very attractive.
Opened
29 Mar 2016
Outright
Buy INVSA EUR 4.875% 2021
The spread on the INVSA 2021 has widened recently and is
too wide compared with average spreads for industrials
with high (AA) ratings.
Opened
29 Feb 2016
Pickup is c. 40bp for around 1.5 years of maturity
extension.
Opened
3 Jun 2016
Maersk EUR 2021 is trading wider than the ‘BBB-’
industrial curve vs Maersk’s ‘BBB+/NO’ rating.
Opened
3 Jun 2016
Source: Danske Bank Markets
See the end of this document for a list of our coverage including shadow ratings and recommendations
14
Best and worst performers (Nordic coverage universe)
- Investment grade
1 week in local currencies
Scania CV AB EUR 2017
-17
-9
-7
-17
Fortum Varme Holding samagt med…
Atlas Copco AB EUR 2023
-15
SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA EUR 2021
-15
Scania CV AB SEK 2017
-6
Fortum Varme Holding samagt med…
SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA EUR 2021
-5
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson EUR…
-5
-5
SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA EUR 2018
Neste Oyj EUR 2022
-9
OP Corporate Bank plc EUR 2021
SBAB Bank AB EUR 2018
-9
Nordea Bank AB EUR 2025
-4
Carlsberg Breweries A/S EUR 2019
-9
Nordea Bank AB EUR 2025
-4
Nordea Bank AB EUR 2025
-9
SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA EUR 2019
6
Telia Co AB EUR 2025
6
12
Telia Co AB EUR 2024
Swedish Match AB SEK 2020
13
Svenska Cellulosa AB SCA EUR 2023
7
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj EUR 2025
13
Neste Oyj EUR 2016
7
Vestas Wind Systems A/S EUR 2022
7
Kemira OYJ EUR 2022
Telia Co AB EUR 2025
10
Neste Oyj EUR 2016
10
Telia Co AB EUR 2027
-10
-20
Change in local currencies (bp)
Vattenfall AB EUR 2021
17
Vestas Wind Systems A/S EUR 2022
Vattenfall AB EUR 2024
DONG Energy A/S EUR 2016
28
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj EUR 2019
38
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj EUR 2025
41
DONG Energy A/S EUR 2016
0
17
22
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj EUR 2021
24
10
Swedish Match AB SEK 2020
-14
-9
11
20
Scania CV AB EUR 2017
-19
Citycon Treasury BV EUR 2022
-5
9
30
1 month in local currencies
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj EUR 2021
44
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Change in local currencies (bp)
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets (both charts)
15
Selected new investment-grade issues
Date
Issuer
Coupon
CCY Volume
Maturity
S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM
02/06/2016
Bonum Pankki Oy
EUR006M +100bps
EUR
100 m
Jun/19
BBB / /
100
02/06/2016
Sparbanken Skane
STIB3M +130bps
SEK
600 m
Jun/21
BBB+ / /
130
02/06/2016
Volvo Treasury Ab
0.315%
SEK
750 m
Jun/18
/ Baa2 /
65
01/06/2016
Orlen Capital Ab
2.5%
EUR
750 m
Jun/23
/ (P)Baa3 / BBB-e
250
01/06/2016
American Intl Group
1.5%
EUR
750 m
Jun/23
A- / Baa1 / BBB+
127
01/06/2016
Sparebank 1 Smn
0.75%
EUR
500 m
Jun/21
/ A1e / A-
85
01/06/2016
Willhem Ab
1.375%
SEK
750 m
Jun/21
A- / /
111
31/05/2016
Icade
1.75%
EUR
750 m
Jun/26
BBB+ / /
123
31/05/2016
Credit Suisse Ag London
1%
EUR
1 250 m
Jun/23
A / A2 / A
88
31/05/2016
Assicurazioni Generali (Tier 2)
5%
EUR
850 m
Jun/48
/ Baa3 / BBB
535
31/05/2016
Rci Banque Sa
0.375%
EUR
750 m
Jul/19
BBB / Baa1e /
50
31/05/2016
Hsbc Holdings Plc (Tier 2)
3.125%
EUR
1 000 m
Jun/28
BBB+ / A2 / A+
240
31/05/2016
Esb Finance Limited
1.875%
EUR
600 m
Jun/31
/ Baa1 /
95
31/05/2016
La Banque Postale (Tier 2)
3%
EUR
500 m
Jun/28
BBB- / / A-
225
31/05/2016
Thales Sa
0.75%
EUR
600 m
Jun/23
BBB+ / A2 / BBB+e
53
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
16
Company news from the past week (investment grade)
Name
News
Implication
Jyske
Jyske Bank (OW) confirmed its capital targets of a CET1 ratio of 14% and a total capital ratio of
17.5% (15.9% and 16.7% at end-Q1 16, respectively.) The recent Tier-2 issuance in May improved
the total capital ratio by some 0.4pp resulting in total sub capital being 1.2% of REA. Jyske says it
expects to obtain the 3.5% of REA in subordinated capital (AT1 and T-2) by the end of 2017. It says
that it expects the new capital requirements (mainly 'Basel IV') to have a negative impact on the
capitalisation of Jyske by some 4pp, which it expects to comply with via retained earnings. Finally, due
to the solid reported CET1 ratio versus target, Jyske is set to initiate a new share buyback programme
of DKK500m as of 1 July 2016 (the previous programme of DKK750m ends on 31 June 2016 and
currently has a value of DKK623m). All in all, there was no material news in the statement, although
the new share buyback programme seems a bit more aggressive than the equity market currently
estimates. Although this could be viewed as negative by the credit market, we emphasise that Jyske is
keeping its capital targets and hence remains comfortable within its ‘A-’ rating by S&P, in our view.
Credit neutral
DNA
DNA (OW) is considering an IPO. Three years ago the idea was abandoned but the company has
become more mature as a carrier having increased both market share and network coverage and now
would be a good time to execute on the idea that was abandoned three years ago. A return to IPO plans
has been part of our thesis all along and one of the key reasons for our overweight recommendation on
the name. Needless to say, this would be positive for both the DNA 2018s and DNA 2021s.
Credit positive
Mining
Metso/Atlas Copco/Sandvik: US-based Joy Global has released Q2 numbers. Orders declined 9% y/y
in Q2 16 versus -21% y/y in Q1 16. Joy Global now sees FY revenue at the lower end of the guidance
range. Overall, the company confirmed that market conditions remain difficult but that comparisons
are becoming easier y/y and some stabilisation is taking place, albeit it at a low level. Joy states ‘while
there has been mounting evidence of supply curtailments, challenging market conditions are likely to
persist’. Overall, we find this credit neutral for Nordic mining-related companies.
Credit neutral
Source: Danske Bank Markets
17
Company news from the past week (investment grade)
Name
News
Implication
Telenor
Telenor (MW): Pakistani telecom authorities have announced that Telenor was the only applicant to
submit a pre-bid offer in a 850mz spectrum auction. The PTA has set a base price of USD395m for
the licence, which gives the holder the right to use the spectrum band for 15 years. The spectrum can
be used for both 3G and 4G mobile services. Given that Telenor is the only bidder so far, it is highly
likely that it will win the licence. The NOK3-4bn price tag will come on top of this year's capex guidance
of 15-17% (Telenor's capex guidance does not include spectrum auctions). Most estimates include
some licence spending, so this should be neutral for the credit. However, it is likely to limit further
scope for licence acquisitions without increasing consensus FY capex expectations.
Credit neutral
Vattenfall
Vattenfall (MW) has started the construction of Horns Rev 3, a 400MW Danish offshore windfarm.
The total capex will be slightly above EUR1bn. Vattenfall won this concession in early 2015 and
expects completion of the farm in 2018. We find it positive that Vattenfall is slowly diversifying away
from traditional unregulated power generation. This piece of news is credit neutral as this investment
has been well flagged previously.
Credit neutral
Atlas Copco
Atlas Copco has agreed to buy CSK, a South Korean-based abatement company, for SEK840m. CSK
has annual revenues corresponding to SEK870m, which is less than 1% of Atlas Copco's group
revenue. Hence, this is a minor acquisition with no credit spread impact.
Credit neutral
Telia
Telia (MW) has apparently ended talks with Zegona regarding the sale of Yoigo. Telia has received
interest from several parties on Yoigo and we suspect that the acquisition price became too steep for
Zegona to remain in the bidding process.
Credit neutral
Source: Danske Bank Markets
18
Credit indicators
Credit Indicators
19
Chart pack: euro spreads and returns
Euro IG ASW, iBoxx indices
IG total return, iBoxx indices, 2014-01=100
Euro HY ASW, Merrill Lynch indices
HY total return, Merrill Lynch indices, 2014-01=100
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
20
Chart pack: relative value
iTraxx vs iBoxx
Euro vs US CDS indices - IG (Markit)
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
Euro vs US HY bond indices (Merrill Lynch)
21
Chart pack: general market development
European swap and government yields
3M Libor, US and euro area
Euro swap curve spread
EUR/USD basis swaps
Source: Macrobond Financial , Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
22
Chart pack: high-yield funds flow
High-yield Europe ETF fund flow
High yield US ETF fund flow
Cumulative ETF-flow MEUR
Cumulative ETF-flow MEUR
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Dec-2014 Mar-2015 Jun-2015 Sep-2015 Dec-2015 Mar-2016
High Yield - Europe - Fixed Income
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
Dec-2014 Mar-2015 Jun-2015 Sep-2015 Dec-2015 Mar-2016
High Yield - North America - Fixed Income
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
23
Chart pack: fund flows
Europe, net sales
US, net sales
Sweden, net sales
Norway, net sales
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
24
Chart pack: macro
GDP y/y growth, calendar adjusted
Purchasing Manager Indices
Euro area y/y change in bank lending
Euro area lending standards
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
25
Coverage universe, credit ratings
and recommendations
26
Our coverage and shadow ratings 1 of 6
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Ahlstrom Oyj
Akelius Residential Property Ab
Aktia Bank Plc
Alandsbanken Abp
Ambu A/S
Ap Moeller - Maersk A/S
Arla Foods Amba
Atlas Copco Ab
Avinor As
Balder
Bank 1 Oslo Akershus As
Bank Norwegian As
Beerenberg Holdco Ii As
Billerudkorsnas Ab
Bonum Pankki Oyj
Brage Finans As
Bw Offshore
Carlsberg Breweries A/S
Castellum Ab
Citycon Oyj
Color Group As
Com Hem Holding Ab
Corem Property Group Ab
Danfoss A/S
Danske Bank A/S
Deep Sea Supply Plc
Destia Group Oy
Dfds A/S
Dlg Finance As
Dna Ltd
Dnb Bank Asa
Dof Asa
Danske Bank
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook
BBStable
BBB- Stable
ANeg
A3
Stable
BBB
Neg
BBB- Stable
BBB+
Neg
Baa1
Stable
BBB
Stable
A
Stable
A2
Stable
A
Stable
AAStable
A1
Stable
BBB- Stable
BBB+ Stable
BBB
Stable
B
Stable
B
BBBPos
BBB
Stable
BBB
Stable
BB
Baa2
Neg
BBB
Stable
BBB- Stable
BBB
Stable Baa1
Stable
BBStable
BBBB
Stable
BBStable
B+
BBB
Stable
A
Stable
A2
Stable
A
Stable
BNeg
BBStable
B+
BBB- Stable
BBStable
BBB- Stable
A+
Neg
Aa2
Neg
B+
Neg
Analyst(s)
Recomm.
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
L. Landeman / P. Ahmarinejad
OVERWEIGHT
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
J. Magnussen / M. Rosendal
B. Børsting/J. Magnussen
MARKETWEIGHT
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
UNDERWEIGHT
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
MARKETWEIGHT
L. Landeman / P. Ahmarinejad
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Ø. Mossige
M. Rosendal / L. Landeman
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Ø. Mossige
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
MARKETWEIGHT
L. Landeman / P. Ahmarinejad
L. Landeman / P. Ahmarinejad
OVERWEIGHT
N. Ripa / B. Børsting
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
L. Landeman / P. Ahmarinejad
J. Magnussen / B. Børsting
OVERWEIGHT
Ø. Mossige
L. Landeman / G. Bergin
N. Ripa / B. Børsting
M. Rosendal / B. Børsting
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Ø. Mossige
UNDERWEIGHT
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
27
Our coverage and shadow ratings 2 of 6
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Danske Bank
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
Analyst(s)
Company
Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook
Dof Subsea As
B+
Neg
Ø. Mossige
Dong Energy A/S
BBB+ Stable
Baa1
Neg
BBB+ Stable
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
Dsv A/S
BBB
Stable
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
Eg Holding
B
Stable
J. Magnussen / N. Ripa
Eidesvik Offshore Asa
B
Neg
Ø. Mossige
Eika Boligkreditt As
AStable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Eika Forsikring As
BBB+ Stable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Eika Gruppen As
BBB
Stable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Eksportfinans Asa
BBB
Pos
Ba3U Stable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Electrolux Ab
BBB+ Stable
Wr
WD
G. Bergin / B. Børsting
Elenia Oy
BBB
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
Elisa Oyj
BBB+ Stable
Baa2
Stable
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
Farstad Shipping Asa
B
Stable
BØ. Mossige
Fastpartner Ab
BB
Stable
BBL. Landeman / P. Ahmarinejad
Felleskjopet Agri Sa
BBBStable
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
Fingrid Oyj
A+
Pos
A1
Pos
A+
Stable
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
Finnair Oyj
BB+
Stable
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
Fortum Oyj
BBB+ Stable
Baa1
Stable BBB+ Stable
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
Fortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab
BBB+ Stable
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
Fred Olsen Energy Asa
B+
Neg
B
S. Stormyr / B.K. Røed
G4S Plc
BBBNeg
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
Getinge Ab
BB
Stable
L. Landeman / G. Bergin
Golar Lng Partners Lp
BB
Stable
BBB.K. Røed / J. Meyer
Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd
CCC
S. Stormyr / B.K. Røed
Havila Shipping Asa
D
Neg
Ø. Mossige
Heimstaden Ab
BB
Stable
BBL. Landeman / P. Ahmarinejad
Hemso Fastighets Ab
AStable
L. Landeman / P. Ahmarinejad
Hexagon Ab
BBBPos
L. Landeman / G. Bergin
Hkscan Oyj
BB
Stable
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
Hoegh Lng Holdings Ltd
BBStable
B+
B.K. Røed / J. Meyer
Hoist Kredit Ab
Ba2
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
Husqvarna Ab
BBBPos
L. Landeman / G. Bergin
Ica Gruppen Ab
BBB
Stable
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
Recomm.
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
28
Our coverage and shadow ratings 3 of 6
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Ikano Bank Ab
Investor Ab
Iss A/S
J Lauritzen A/S
Jefast Holding Ab
Jernhusen Ab
Jyske Bank A/S
Kemira Oyj
Kesko Oyj
Klaveness Ship Holding As
Klovern Ab
Kongsberg Gruppen
Lantmannen Ek For
Loomis Ab
Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab
Meda Ab
Metsa Board Oyj
Metso Oyj
Ncc Ab
Neste Oyj
Nibe Industrier Ab
Nokia Oyj
Nordax Bank Ab
Nordea Bank Ab
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd
Norwegian Air Shuttle Asa
Nykredit Bank A/S
Nynas Group
Obos Bbl
Ocean Rig Udw Inc
Ocean Yield Asa
Odfjell Se
Danske Bank
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
Analyst(s)
Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook
BBB
Stable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
AAStable
Aa3
Stable
G. Bergin / B. Børsting
BBB
Stable
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
B
Stable
BB.K. Røed / J. Meyer
B
Stable
L. Landeman / G. Bergin
AStable
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
AStable Baa1U Stable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
BBBStable
Wr
M. Rosendal / L. Landeman
BBB
Neg
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
BBStable
B+
B.K. Røed / J. Meyer
BB+
Stable
BB
L. Landeman / P. Ahmarinejad
BBB+ Stable
BBB+
Ø. Mossige
BBBStable
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
BBB
Stable
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
BBB
Stable
L. Landeman / G. Bergin
BBStable
L. Landeman / G. Bergin
BB+
Pos
Ba2
Stable
M. Rosendal / L. Landeman
BBB
Stable
Baa2
Stable
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
BBBStable
L. Landeman / G. Bergin
BBBStable
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
BBBStable
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
BB+
Pos
Ba2
Stable
BB+
Pos
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
BBBStable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
AANeg
Aa3
Stable
AAStable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
CCC+
Neg
CCC
S. Stormyr / B.K. Røed
B+
Stable
B
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
A
Neg
Baa3U Stable
A
Stable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
B+
Stable
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
BBB
Stable
H. Syed/ B. Engebretsen
CCC+
Neg
Ca
Neg
S. Stormyr / B.K. Røed
BB
BBØ. Mossige
B+
Stable
B
B.K. Røed / J. Meyer
Recomm.
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
29
Our coverage and shadow ratings 4 of 6
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Danske Bank
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
Company
Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook
Olympic Ship As
B
Stable
B
Op Corporate Bank Plc
AANeg
Aa3
Stable
WD
Orava Residential Reit Plc
B+
Stable
Orkla Asa
BBB+ Stable
BBB+
Outokumpu Oyj
B3
Pos
Pacific Drilling Sa
BNeg
Caa2
Neg
Petroleum Geo-Services Asa
CCC+
Neg
Caa1
Neg
Postnord Ab
BBB+ Stable
Prosafe Se
B+
Neg
B
Ramirent Oyj
BB+
Stable
Rem Offshore Asa
BSaab Ab
BBB+ Stable
Wr
Sandnes Sparebank
BBB+ Stable
Sandvik Ab
BBB
Neg
Sas Ab
BStable
Wr
Stable
Sbab Bank Ab
A
Neg
A2
Stable
Scania Ab
BBB+
Neg
Seadrill Ltd
B
Neg
BSecuritas Ab
BBB
Stable
Wr
Ship Finance International Ltd
BB
Stable
BBWr
Siem Offshore Inc
BNeg
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab
A+
Stable
Aa3
Stable
AAStable
Skanska Ab
BBB+ Stable
Skf Ab
BBB
Neg
Baa2
Stable
Sognekraft As
BBB
Stable
Solstad Offshore Asa
B+
Stable
B+
Spar Nord Bank A/S
BBB+ Stable
Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt As
AStable
Sparebank 1 Nord Norge
A1
Stable
A
Stable
Sparebank 1 Smn
A1
Stable
AStable
Sparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa
A1
Neg
AStable
Sparekassen Kronjylland
BBB
Stable
Analyst(s)
Ø. Mossige
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Landeman / G. Bergin
H. Syed/ B. Engebretsen
M. Rosendal / L. Landeman
S. Stormyr / B.K. Røed
S. Stormyr
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
S. Stormyr / B.K. Røed
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
Ø. Mossige
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
L. Holm / K. Jensen
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
L. Holm / K. Jensen
M. Rosendal / B. Børsting
S. Stormyr / B.K. Røed
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
B.K. Røed / J. Meyer
Ø. Mossige
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Landeman / G. Bergin
M. Rosendal / G. Bergin
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
Ø. Mossige
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Recomm.
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
30
Our coverage and shadow ratings 5 of 6
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Sponda Oyj
Srv Group Oyj
Ssab Ab
St1 Nordic Oy
Statkraft Sf
Statnett Sf
Statoil Asa
Stena Ab
Stockmann Oyj Abp
Stolt-Nielsen Ltd
Stora Enso Oyj
Storebrand Bank Asa
Storebrand Livsforsikring As
Sunnfjord Energi As
Suomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys
Svensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab
Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca
Svenska Handelsbanken Ab
Swedavia Ab
Swedbank Ab
Swedish Match Ab
Sydbank A/S
Tallink Grupp As
Tdc A/S
Technopolis Oyj
Teekay Lng Partners Lp
Teekay Offshore Partners Lp
Tele2 Ab
Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson
Telenor Asa
Telia Co Ab
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj
Danske Bank
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook
BBBStable
B
Stable
BB+
Stable
BB
Stable
ANeg
Aaa
Stable
A+
Stable
Wr
Stable
A+
Stable
Aa3
Stable
BB
Stable
B2
B+
Stable
BB+
Stable
BB
BB
Stable
Ba2
Stable
WD
BBB+ Stable
BBB+
Neg
Nr
Stable
BBB+ Stable
Baa1
Stable
BBBStable
BBB
Neg
BBB
Stable
AStable
Baa1
Stable
AANeg
Aa2
Stable
AA
Stable
AStable
AANeg
Aa3
Stable
AAStable
BBB
Stable
Baa2
Stable
Baa1
Stable
BB
Stable
BBBBBStable
Baa3
Stable
BBBStable
BB+
Stable
BB
BB
Stable
BBBB
Stable
BBBBB
Stable
BBB+ Stable
Baa1
Stable BBB+ Stable
A
Stable
A3
Stable
AStable
Baa1
Stable
AStable
BB+
Stable
Wr
BBB
Neg
Analyst(s)
L. Landeman / G. Bergin
Louis Landeman
M. Rosendal / L. Landeman
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
N. Ripa / B. Børsting
N. Ripa / G. Bergin
B.K. Røed / J. Meyer
M. Rosendal / L. Landeman
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Louis Landeman
M. Rosendal / B. Børsting
L. Holm / K. Jensen
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
L. Holm / K. Jensen
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
L. Holm / K. Jensen
N. Ripa / J. Magnussen
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
L. Landeman / G. Bergin
Ø. Mossige
Ø. Mossige
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
Recomm.
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
31
Our coverage and shadow ratings 6 of 6
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Topdanmark A/S
Tryg Forsikring A/S
Upm-Kymmene Oyj
Vasakronan Ab
Vattenfall Ab
Vestas Wind Systems A/S
Victoria Park Ab
Volvo Ab
Welltec A/S
Wihlborgs Fastigheter Ab
Wilh Wilhelmsen Asa
Yit Oyj
Danske Bank
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook
BBB+ Stable
ABBB
BB
BB+
BB+
B
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
BB+
Stable
Ba1
Pos
WD
BBB+
Neg
A3
Neg
BBB+
Stable
BBB
B
Stable
Neg
Baa2
B2
Stable
Neg
BBB
Stable
A-
BB-
BB
Analyst(s)
Recomm.
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
M. Rosendal / L. Landeman
MARKETWEIGHT
L. Landeman / P. Ahmarinejad
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHT
N. Ripa / J. Magnussen
OVERWEIGHT
L. Landeman / P. Ahmarinejad
M. Rosendal / B. Børsting
MARKETWEIGHT
S. Stormyr
L. Landeman / P. Ahmarinejad
B.K. Røed / J. Meyer
L. Landeman / G. Bergin
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
32
Fixed Income Credit Research team
Thomas Hovard
Head of Credit Research
+45 45 12 85 05
hova@danskebank.com
Henrik René Andresen
Credit Portfolios
+45 45 13 33 27
hena@danskebank.com
Pegah Ahmarinejad
Real Estate
+46 8 568 80593
pahm@danskebank.com
Knut-Ivar Bakken
Fish farming
+47 85 40 70 74
knb@danskebank.com
Haseeb Syed
Industrials
+47 85 40 54 19
hsy@danskebank.com
Gabriel Bergin
Strategy, Industrials
+46 8 568 80602
gabe@danskebank.com
Brian Børsting
Industrials
+45 45 12 85 19
brbr@danskebank.com
Bendik Engebretsen
Industrials
+47 85 40 69 14
bee@danskebank.com
Sondre Dale Stormyr
Offshore rigs
+47 85 40 70 70
sost@danskebank.com
Lars Holm
Financials
+45 45 12 80 41
laho@danskebank.com
Katrine Jensen
Financials
+45 45 12 80 56
katri@danskebank.com
Louis Landeman
Industrials, Real Estate
+46 8 568 80524
llan@danskebank.com
Jakob Magnussen
Utilities, Energy
+45 45 12 85 03
jakja@danskebank.com
Øyvind Mossige
Oil services
+47 85 40 54 91
omss@danskebank.com
Niklas Ripa
High Yield, Industrials
+45 45 12 80 47
niri@danskebank.com
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Shipping
+47 85 40 70 72
bred@danskebank.com
Mads Rosendal
Industrials, TMT
+45 45 14 88 79
madro@danskebank.com
Find the latest Credit Research: :
Danske Bank Markets: http://www.danskebank.com/danskemarketsresearch
Bloomberg: DNSK<GO>
33
Disclosures
This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ('Danske Bank'). The authors of this research report
are Brian Børsting, Senior Analyst, and Katrine Jensen, Analyst.
Analyst certification
Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the
research analyst's personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further
certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations
expressed in the research report.
Regulation
Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the
relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority
and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation
Authority are available from Danske Bank on request.
The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts' rules of ethics and the
recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association.
Conflicts of interest
Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high-quality research based on research
objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank's research policies. Employees within Danske Bank's Research
Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research
Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank's Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other
business areas within Danske Bank.
Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not
receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions.
Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries are engaged in commercial banking, securities underwriting, dealing, trading, brokerage, investment
management, investment banking, custody and other financial services activities, may be a lender to the companies mentioned in this publication and
have whatever rights are available to a creditor under applicable law and the applicable loan and credit agreements. At any time, Danske Bank, its
affiliates and subsidiaries may have credit or other information regarding the companies mentioned in this publication that is not available to or may not
be used by the personnel responsible for the preparation of this report, which might affect the analysis and opinions expressed in this research report.
See http://www-2.danskebank.com/Link/researchdisclaimer for further disclosures and information.
34
General disclaimer
This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or
form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e.
financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect
to any such financial instruments) ('Relevant Financial Instruments').
The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While
reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske
Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from
reliance on this research report.
The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These
opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes
related to the information provided in this research report.
This research report is not intended for, and may not be redistributed to, retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States.
This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any
recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank's prior written consent.
Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States
This research report was created by Danske Bank A/S and is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary
of Danske Bank A/S, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is
intended for distribution in the United States solely to 'U.S. institutional investors' as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this
research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to 'U.S. institutional investors'.
Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research
analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA but satisfy the
applicable requirements of a non-U.S. jurisdiction.
Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets
Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non-U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-U.S. issuers may not be
registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission.