Weekly Market Highlights
January 9, 2015 Global Markets Research Weekly Market Highlights Macroeconomics • Weekly Performance Macro Currency ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ US EU UK Japan Equity ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↓ ↔ ↓ Hong Kong ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Singapore ↓ ↓ ↓ Malaysia China ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ FOMC minutes clearly took center stage as it revealed that a Fed rate hike will unlikely take place before April. The minutes from the Fed’s previous 10-y Govt Bond Yields meeting showed that the FOMC “was unlikely to begin the normalization process for at least the next couple of meetings”. Meanwhile, BOE expectedly stayed the course at yesterday’s policy meeting, amid recent downticks in data as well as on concerns that inflation could slip lower following weakness in oil prices. • Data wise, this has not been the best of weeks as both PMI manufacturing and services indices largely pointed to slower growth traction. • Markets may again keep their eyes on oil development and ECB’s bond buying programme as ECB meeting (22-Jan) approaches. Scheduled economic releases are less crowded but nevertheless no less important. Top of the list will be the Fed Beige Book, US retail sales, industrial production, Uni Michigan consumer confidence, Philly Fed, Empire manufacturing, and CPI. • Back in Asia, China exports will take center stage, and setting the stage for 4Q GDP and other first tier data scheduled for the following week. We believe China is on track to register a 7.3-7.4% economic growth for 2014 as a whole. Weekly MYR Performance Forex • MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW) -1.24 GBP -0.45 on continued signs of improvement in the US labour market. We caution however, that disappointment in US data tonight could spur MYR on weaker footing next week, barring any further drop in oil prices, which seem to be 1.25 AUD USD 2.00 HKD 2.01 0.00 stabilizing circa $47-$50 level. 1.90 • 1.00 2.00 USD advanced agaisnt 8 G10s after pushing higher for 5 consecutive days to lift the Dollar Index to its 11y high at 92.36 amid hawkish Fed outlook, general weakness the markets coupled with jitters from Greek elections. At 2.07 JPY -1.00 bearish view on MYR against USD, premising on the greenback holding firm 0.99 CNY -2.00 conditions, leading it lower against 5 G10s. We currently maintain a slightly CHF SGD MYR Appreciated straight days before pulling back. MYR weakness continue to prevail on the back of falling oil prices and concerns over its impact on Malaysian fiscal MYR Depreciated EUR -0.62 MYR weakened 2.0% WOW to 3.5665 against USD after slipping for 4 this juncture, we stay bullish on USD as it remains the only major currency to be suppoted by a tigther policy outlook and an improving economy. However, 3.00 we caution that latest ADP report has increased markets expectation for a solid NFP tonight, amongst other data, and a shortfall from that expectations is likely to trigger a moderate / strong sell-off in USD that we suspect could be prone to downsides after reaching fresh highs. Indicative Yields Fixed Income • UST started the year on more biddish tone, with 10-year yields seen trading lower below the psychological 2.00%. Prospects of ECB embarking on QE and somewhat dovish FOMC minutes of December meeting provided more clarity reinforcing Fed’s patience in raising interest rates, which is unlikely to take place before late April. Market saw a relief rally, with regional government bond yields easing lower. A few policymakers expressed concerns over subdued inflation, whilst cautioning the risk of global growth concerns may pose a threat to the US recovery. Expect UST to remain on range-bound with renewed support following a tad more dovish FOMC minutes. • On the local front, trading sentiment started on a more cautious tone tracking weak Ringgit and declining oil prices. However sentiment turned to a more upbeat following a healthier BTC print of 2.368x registered for the 15-year MGS 4/30 reopening, suggesting that recent upwardly movement in bond yields appears excessive paving the way for bargain hunting interest. Expect Please see important disclosure at the end of the report trading volume to garner traction as we progress along, with investors reopening their investor books for a new fiscal/calendar year. Although bond yields could potentially mirror some gyration on the back Ringgit performance and oil price movement, we opine trading sentiment to turn tactical with pocket of opportunities for buying on dips. 1 Fixed Income & Economic Research Weekly Market Highlights Contents 2 Macroeconomics Page 3 Forex Page 4 Trading Idea Page 5 FX Technicals Page 6 Fixed Income Page 7 Economic Calendar Page 9 Fixed Income & Economic Research Weekly Market Highlights Review Macroeconomics • 6-month Macro Outlook US EU UK Japan Australia China Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Singapore Economy Inflation Interest Rate Currency ↔ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ FOMC minutes clearly took center stage as it revealed that a Fed rate hike will unlikely take place before April. The minutes from the Fed’s previous meeting showed that the FOMC “was unlikely to begin the normalization process for at least the next couple of meetings”. Policy makers also discussed downside risks to growth, and concluded that these are likely to be offset by an economy that “may end up showing more momentum than expected”, spurred by a boost to spending from lower fuel prices that “could turn out to be quite large”. On inflation, the committee expects it to inch towards its target with improvement in the labour market and as the impact of lower fuel prices diminishes. • Meanwhile, BOE expectedly stayed the course at yesterday’s policy meeting, amid recent downticks in data as well as on concerns that inflation could slip lower following weakness in oil prices. • Data wise, this has not been the best of weeks as both PMI manufacturing and services indices largely pointed to slower growth traction. While readings from the West turned out largely softer than expected, those around Asia appear to be less downbeat. The string of other data releases turned out mixed, but overall pointing to a less sanguine global landscape that have reignited global growth concern. Mounting growth risks in the Eurozone have intensified talks of ECB bond buying programme in their upcoming policy meeting later in the month. • Back home, November statistics turned out not as bad as feared. Exports rebounded to increase 2.1% YOY in November, led by a rebound in E&E exports. Trade surplus widened to a 11-month high, but due mainly to sharply lower imports that offered some temporary reprieve to concerns over a deficit in lieu of the sharp drop in global oil prices. This, coupled with moderatring but still expanionsary IPI gain of 4.7% YOY in November, signaled Malaysia is on track to achieve its 5.8% growth in 2014. We would however like to caution that 2015 growth forecast could be at risk of dipping closer to 4.0% should oil prices linger at its low. The Week Ahead… • Markets may again keep their eyes on oil development and ECB’s bond buying programme as ECB meeting (22-Jan) approaches. Scheduled economic releases are less crowded but nevertheless no less important. Top of the list will be the Fed Beige Book, US retail sales, industrial production, Uni Michigan consumer confidence, Philly Fed, Empire manufacturing, and CPI. 3 Fixed Income & Economic Research • Other CPI readings due from the Eurozone, Germany, France and the UK are expected to reflect continuous softening price trend that will reinforce deflationary/ disinflationary risks, providing ample room for monetary policies to stay accommodative. • Back in Asia, China exports will take center stage, and setting the stage for 4Q GDP and other first tier data scheduled for the following week. We believe China is on track to register a 7.3-7.4% economic growth for 2014 as a whole. Weekly Market Highlights Review and Outlook Forex • MYR: MYR weakened 2.0% WOW to 3.5665 against USD after slipping for 4 straight days before pulling back. MYR weakness continue to prevail on the MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW) -1.24 MYR Depreciated EUR -0.62 -0.45 back of falling oil prices and concerns over its impact on Malaysian fiscal conditions, leading it lower against 5 G10s. We currently maintain a slightly GBP bearish view on MYR against USD, premising on the greenback holding firm on continued signs of improvement in the US labour market. We caution however, CHF MYR Appreciated SGD 0.99 AUD 1.25 that disappointment in US data tonight could spur MYR on weaker footing next week, barring any further drop in oil prices, which seem to be stabilizing circa $47-$50 level. 1.90 CNY • USD: USD advanced agaisnt 8 G10s after pushing higher for 5 consecutive USD 2.00 days to lift the Dollar Index to its 11y high at 92.36 amid hawkish Fed outlook, HKD 2.01 general weakness the markets coupled with jitters from Greek elections. At this juncture, we stay bullish on USD as it remains the only major currency to be 2.07 JPY suppoted by a tigther policy outlook and an improving economy. However, we -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 caution that latest ADP report has increased markets expectation for a solid NFP tonight, amongst other data, and a shortfall from that expectations is likely to trigger a moderate / strong sell-off in USD that we suspect could be prone to Source: Bloomberg downsides after reaching fresh highs. • USD vs the G10s (% WOW) G10s on further pressure from rising deflationary concerns that firmed up QE bets, on top of jitters approaching the Greek snap polls on 25 Jan. EURUSD GBP -3.18 -2.82 -2.57 -2.46 SEK EUR Eurozone reports next week. EUR-negativity from firm QE expectations and Greek jitters would likely to lead EUR lower ahead of ECB meeting in the week after. Even if EURUSD rebounds, we reckon that it would likely remain capped below 1.2010. NOK CAD -0.73 AUD NZD -3.00 The pair can forget about much upsides coming from data amid a lack of major CHF JPY -4.00 remains anything but bullish, with slim chance of a rebound on USD weakness. USD Depreciated DKK -2.41 -2.29 -1.86 USD Appreciated -2.00 EUR: EUR slumped 2.57% WOW to 1.1793 against USD and fell against 8 -1.00 0.07 0.33 0.00 • GBP: GBP fell for 5 consecutive days to close lower against all G10s and plunged 3.18% WOW to 1.5090 against USD, impacted by successvie downticks in UK data ahead of BOE policy decision. Markets’ hawkish 1.00 expectations on BOE has slipped into a grey area and the resulting downside impact on GBP is rather pronounced, evident in an absence of bids even as other European majors were sold. We maintain a slight bearish view on Source: Bloomberg GBPUSD, with UK CPI downsides to likely provide further tinge of weakness but note a slim chance of rebound only on USD weakness. We expect rebounds to be curbed by 1.5250 level, below which we would remain bearish. USD vs Asian Curencies (% WOW) -2.26 -2.00 MYR -1.12 TWD -0.99 -0.77 USD Appreciated advanced a slight 0.07% WOW against USD at 119.33 after returning much USD Depreciated gains yesterday. We expect markets to be cheered to a certain extent by signs of stall in oil price decline and anticipation of speculated ECB announcement PHP on QE in the week after, leading to a softer refuge demand. Unless USD weakens significantly, we would expect JPY underperforming the greenback -0.27 KRW -0.10 CNY HKD next week. 0.01 -1.00 0.00 • 0.24 AUD: AUD rallied on the rebound in equities and commodities to close higher against 7 G10s and narrow early losses against USD to 0.73% WOW at 1.09 INR -2.00 JPY: JPY maintained a bullish tone, strengthening against 9 G10s on the back of heightened risk aversion from declines in equities and commodities. JPY SGD THB -3.00 • IDR 1.00 0.8123. In response to recent protracted weakness in AUDUSD, we reckon that bidders would continue to take opportunity of rebound in equities and 2.00 commodities to lift the pair higher. We expect extended rebound, if any, to likely stall circa 0.8238. Despite our slight bullish view, we note that AUDUSD remains prone to downsides if USD rallies on solid US data tonight, or if Source: Bloomberg Chinese exports and Australian employment reports disappoints. • SGD: SGD advanced against 7 G10s once fund inflow started moving again in tandem with rebound in equities, but prevailing USD strength continue to cap SGD to decline 1.0% WOW to 1.3368. We expect SGD to remain slightly bid with inflow likely to strengthen following firmer risk appetite in the market, but caution that downsides in Singapore data next week could overturn early gains. 4 Fixed Income & Economic Research Weekly Market Highlights Technical Analysis: Currency Current price 14-day RSI Support - Resistance EURUSD 1.1802 22 1.1737 GBPUSD 1.5092 24 1.5054 USDJPY 119.62 53 USDCNY 6.2107 58 USDSGD 1.3369 AUDUSD 0.8134 NZDUSD Moving Averages Call 30 Days 100 Days 200 Days 1.2521 1.1737 1.2521 1.2214 Negative 1.5877 1.5054 1.5877 1.5537 Negative 117.43 121.54 117.4300 121.5400 119.4600 Positive 6.1912 6.2304 6.1912 6.2304 6.1962 Positive 68 1.3047 1.3429 1.3047 1.3429 1.3205 Positive 39 0.8054 0.8216 0.8054 0.8216 0.8206 Negative 0.7828 55 0.7676 0.7847 0.7676 0.7847 0.7763 Negative USDMYR 3.5573 72 3.4459 3.5721 3.4459 3.5721 3.4949 Positive EURMYR 4.1984 37 4.1827 4.3490 4.1827 4.3490 4.2744 Neutral GBPMYR 5.3687 41 5.3723 5.4990 5.3723 5.4990 5.4343 Neutral JPYMYR 2.9739 59 2.8645 3.0103 2.8645 3.0103 2.9258 Positive CHFMYR 3.4954 39 3.4782 3.6177 3.4782 3.6177 3.5549 Positive SGDMYR 2.6608 59 2.6275 2.6809 2.6275 2.6809 2.6469 Positive AUDMYR 2.8936 59 2.8176 2.9019 2.8176 2.9019 2.8722 Neutral NZDMYR 2.7848 69 2.6652 2.7837 2.6652 2.7837 2.7130 Neutral Trader’s Comment: A one way ticket start for the New Year. USD made gains against almost all asset classes as hot and fast money accounts boarded on the USD bull train which was left off towards Christmas holidays last year. With that being said, USD in general will start to consolidate ahead of NFP data due later. USDJPY hit high of 119.97 and is consolidating around 119.50. EURUSD hit lows of 1.1754 and is consolidating around 1.1800. Oil hit 47.00 now slightly higher. The story is the same in most pairs as USD index touched 92.57 a high unseen since for a few years. All eyes on NFP as market expects at least a mid 200k print which in point would signal that the US recovery is ongoing strongly and that the FED might accelerate their plans to raise rates sooner rather than later probably around Q2. That being said, if we do get a disappointing print, USD might give up gains gained for the past 5 trading sessions. Although ultimately we should see a grind higher for USD as the inevitability of rising rates amidst this USD strength environment will prevail eventually. Locally, the MYR hit multi year lows of 3.5820 before strengthening back to 3.5550 levels at time of writing in the consolidating phase while waiting for NFP and slight recovery from crude oil. November trade balance pushed the MYR higher from the low and ultimately giving breathing space for MYR to trade mildly stronger. The start of year search for higher yields also help MYR regain some strength as fund managers reallocate safe haven assets into higher beta pairs like the MYR. Given the fast pace of MYR weakening the past 2 months, trader feels we should be trading in a broad range of 3.4900-3.5900 in the upcoming weeks with NFP results and yield hungry flows to dictate movement amidst low liquidity environment. 5 Fixed Income & Economic Research Weekly Market Highlights FX Technical Charts USDMYR EURMYR Resistance: 3.5721 Resistance: 4.3490 Support: 3.4459 Support: 4.1827 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg GBPMYR JPYMYR Resistance: 5.4990 Support: 5.3723 Resistance: 3.0103 Support: 2.8645 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg AUDMYR SGDMYR Resistance: 2.6809 Support: 2.6275 Resistance: 2.9019 Support: 2.8176 Source: Bloomberg 6 Source: Bloomberg Fixed Income & Economic Research Weekly Market Highlights Review & Outlook Fixed Income % • Benchmark MGS Yields trading lower below the psychological 2.00%. Prospects of ECB embarking on QE and somewhat dovish FOMC minutes of December meeting provided more clarity reinforcing Fed’s patience in raising interest rates, which is unlikely to take place before late April. Market saw a relief rally, with regional government bond yields easing lower. 3Y MGS 5Y MGS 10Y MGS 5.2 UST started the year on more biddish tone, with 10-year yields seen 4.7 4.2 A few policymakers expressed concerns over subdued inflation, 3.7 whilst cautioning the risk of global growth concerns may pose a threat to the US recovery. Expect UST to remain on range-bound with renewed support following a tad more dovish FOMC minutes. 3.2 2.7 bps MGS Yield Spread Jan-15 Jul-14 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jan-08 2.2 • 3/10Y 200 3/5Y 150 excessive paving the way for bargain hunting interest. Tender results saw a low, average and high of 4.660%, 4.697% and 4.714% respectively. Post tender, we saw the newly reopened MGS 4/30 rallying to 4.51-4.52% at time of writing, a significant yield compression of circa 19-20 bps from previous traded levels. Expect trading volume to garner traction as we progress along, with investors reopening their investor books for a new fiscal/calendar year. 100 50 Jan-15 Jul-14 Jan-14 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 0 -50 On the local front, trading sentiment started on a more cautious tone tracking weak Ringgit and declining oil prices. However sentiment turned more upbeat following a healthier BTC print registered for the 15-year MGS 4/30 reopening. The government bond auction which marks the 1st bond tender for 2015, printed a healthy BTC of 2.368x suggesting that recent upwardly movement in bond yields appears Although bond yields could potentially mirror some gyration on the back of Ringgit performance and oil price movement, we opine trading sentiment to turn tactical with pocket of opportunities for buying on dips. % • MYR IRS Curve 6.0 3Y IRS 5Y IRS 7Y IRS 5.5 5.0 4.5 Capital ‘15 saw good amount of RM50m done, with levels ended tighter from previous close. Celcom ’19 meanwhile saw RM30m worth of trades done, with level inching higher to close at 4.50%. Other notable trades include a slew of Konsortium ProHawk bonds maturing 2019-2026 with combined volume of RM75m crossed. Meanwhile longer-dated DRB Hicom perpetuals seen 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Jan-15 Jul-14 Jan-14 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 2.0 Jan-08 On the PDS front, trading volume was somewhat thinner but buying interest seen emerging across selective credits. As of Thursday’s close, some notable trades seen emerging. Danga traded at 7.49% with RM15m changing hands. Rating Actions Issuer PDS Description United Growth Berhad’s Islamic MTN Programme Islamic MTN Programme up to RM2.2 billion (2012/2042). Pengurusan Air SPV Berhad’s (PASB) RM20 billion Sukuk, comprising an Islamic MTN Programme (2009/2039) and an Islamic CP Programme (2009/2016). RM2.0 billion Islamic Medium-Term Notes Sukuk Musharakah (2014/2029) Bumitama Agri Ltd Rating/Outlook Action AA2/Stable Affirmed AAA/P1 (Stable) Affirmed AA3 (Stable) Affirmed Source: MARC, RAM Economic Calendar Release Date Date 7 Country Fixed Income & Economic Research Event Reporting Survey Prior Revised Weekly Market Highlights Period 01/21 MY CPI YOY US NFIB small business optimism IDB/TIPP economic optimism 01/22 01/13 -- 3.0% -- Jan 15 -- $116.0b -- Dec 97.8 98.1 -- Jan 48.3 48.4 -- MBA mortgage applications Jan 9 -- 11.1% -- Advance retail sales MOM Dec 0.1% 0.7% -- Import price index MOM Dec -2.9% -1.5% -- Business inventories Nov 0.2% 0.2% -- Foreign reserves 01/14 01/15 Fed Beige Book Empire manufacturing Jan 5.00 -3.58 -- PPI final demand MOM Dec -0.4% -0.2% -- Jan 10 -- 294K -- Initial jobless claims 01/16 Philly Fed biz outlook Jan 20.0 24.5 -- CPI MOM Dec -0.4% -0.3% -- Industrial production MOM Dec 0.0% 1.3% -- Jan P 94.1 93.6 -- University of Michigan consumer confidence 01/20 NAHB housing market index Jan -- 57 -- 01/21 MBA mortgage applications Jan 16 -- -- -- 01/22 01/23 Housing starts MOM Dec -- -1.6% -- Initial jobless claims Jan 17 -- -- -- Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity Jan -- 8 -- Chicago Fed national activity index Dec -- 0.73 -- Jan P -- 53.9 -- Existing home sales MOM Dec -- -6.1% -- Leading index Dec -- 0.6% -- Industrial production MOM Nov 0.3% 0.1% -- 01/15 Trade balance Nov -- 19.4b -- 01/16 CPI MOM Dec -0.2% -0.2% -- 01/19 Current account SA Nov -- 20.5b -- Construction outpuit MOM Nov -- 1.3% -- 01/20 ZEW survey expectations Jan -- 31.8 -- 01/22 Consumer confidence Jan A -- -- -- ECB main refinancing rate Jan 22 -- 0.050% -- 01/23 Markit Eurozone manufacturing PMI Jan P -- 50.6 -- Markit Eurozone services PMI Jan P -- 51.6 -- GDP YOY 2014 1.5% 0.1% -- 01/16 CPI MOM Dec F 0.0% 0.0% -- 01/20 ZEW survey expectations Jan -- 34.9 -- Markit US manufacturing PMI 01/14 01/15 EU Germany 01/23 01/14 Markit services PMI France 01/23 01/13 Italy 01/22 01/12 01/13 8 Dec UK CPI MOM Jan P -- 52.1 -- Dec 0.1% -0.2% -- Markit manufacturing PMI Jan P -- 47.5 -- Markit services PMI Jan P -- 50.6 -- Industrial production MOM Nov 0.1% -0.1% -- Retail sales MOM Nov -- 0.0% -- Lloyds employment confidence Dec -- 1 -- BRC sales like-for-like YOY Dec -- 0.9% -- CPI MOM Dec 0.2% -0.3% -- RPI MOM Dec 0.2% -0.2% -- PPI output MOM Dec -0.2% 0.2% -- Fixed Income & Economic Research Weekly Market Highlights 01/15 RICS house price balance Dec 10% 13% 01/19 Rightmove houseprices YOY Jan -- 7.0% -- CBI total orders Jan Jan -- 5 -- Jobless claism change Dec -- -26.9k -- ILO unemployment rate 3months Nov -- 6.0% -- 01/21 -- BOE minutes 01/22 PSNCR Dec -- 6.7b -- 01/23 Retail sales incl. auto MOM Dec -- 1.6% -- CBI reported sales Jan -- 61 -- BOP current account balance Nov ¥136.4b ¥833.4b ¥833.4b Eco Watchers Survey Current Dec -- 41.5 -- Eco Watchers Survey Outlook Dec -- 44.0 -- Dec P -- 36.6% -- Dec -0.3% -0.2% -- 01/13 Japan 01/14 Machine tool orders YOY 01/15 PPI MOM Machine orders YOY Nov -6.3% -4.9% -- 01/16 Tertiary industry index MOM Nov 0.2% -0.2% -- 01/19 Industrial production YOY Nov F -- -3.8% -- Dec -- 37.7 -- Consumer confidence index Nationwide dept sales YOY Dec -- -1.0% -- 01/20 Convenience store sales YOY Dec -- -1.7% -- 01/21 All industry activity index MOM Nov -- -0.1% -- Supermarket sales YOY Dec -- -0.7% -- Leading index Nov F -- -- -- Machine tool orders YOY Dec F -- -- -- Machine tool orders YOY Dec F -- -- -- BOJ monetary base target Jan 21 -- ¥80T -- BOJ monetary policy statement 01/24 01/13 Markit / JMMA manufacturing PMI China 01/20 01/23 01/19 Jan P -- 52.0 -- Exports YOY Dec 6.0% 4.7% -- Fixed asset ex rural YTD YOY Dec 15.7% 15.8% -- Retail sales YOY Dec 11.8% 11.7% -- Industrial production YOY Dec 7.4% 7.2% -- GDP YOY 4Q 7.2% 7.3% -- Jan P -- 49.6 -- HSBC manufacturing PMI Unemployment rate Dec -- 3.3% -- CPI YOY Dec -- 5.1% -- Retail sales YOY Nov -- 8.1% -- 01/16 Non-oil domestic exports YOY Dec -2.2% 1.6% -- 01/23 CPI YOY Dec -- -0.3% -- CPI YOY Jan -- 1.84% -- Employment change Dec 5.0k 42.7k -- Unemployment rate Dec 6.3% 6.3% --- 01/15 HK Singapore 01/24 Vietnam 01/15 Australia 01/21 Westpac consumer confidence Jan -- -5.7% 01/22 HIA new home sales MOM Nov -- 3.0% -- CPI YOY 4Q -- 1.0% -- BusinessNZ manufacturing PMI Dec -- 55.2 -- ANZ consumer confidence MOM Dec -- 3.9% -- 01/21 01/22 NZ Source: Bloomberg 9 Fixed Income & Economic Research Weekly Market Highlights Hong Leong Bank Berhad Fixed Income & Economic Research, Global Markets Level 6, Wisma Hong Leong 18, Jalan Perak 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel: 603-2773 0469 Fax: 603-2164 9305 Email: HLMarkets@hlbb.hongleong.com.my DISCLAIMER This report is for information purposes only and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. The information contained herein does not constitute the provision of investment advice and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any of the financial instruments mentioned in this report and will not form the basis or a part of any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information contained in this publication is derived from data obtained from sources believed by Hong Leong Bank Berhad (“HLBB”) to be reliable and in good faith, but no warranties or guarantees, representations are made by HLBB with regard to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the data. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the authors of the report and do not necessarily represent the opinion of HLBB or any of the companies within the Hong Leong Bank Group (“HLB Group”). The opinions reflected herein may change without notice and the opinions do not necessarily correspond to the opinions of HLBB. HLBB does not have an obligation to amend, modify or update this report or to otherwise notify a reader or recipient thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. HLB Group, their directors, employees and representatives do not have any responsibility or liability to any person or recipient (whether by reason of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) arising from any statement, opinion or information, expressed or implied, arising out of, contained in or derived from or omission from the reports or matter. HLBB may, to the extent permitted by law, buy, sell or hold significantly long or short positions; act as investment and/or commercial bankers; be represented on the board of the issuers; and/or engage in ‘market making’ of securities mentioned herein. The past performance of financial instruments is not indicative of future results. Whilst every effort is made to ensure that statements of facts made in this report are accurate, all estimates, projections, forecasts, expressions of opinion and other subjective judgments contained in this report are based on assumptions considered to be reasonable as of the date of the document in which they are contained and must not be construed as a representation that the matters referred to therein will occur. Any projections or forecasts mentioned in this report may not be achieved due to multiple risk factors including without limitation market volatility, sector volatility, corporate actions, the unavailability of complete and accurate information. No assurance can be given that any opinion described herein would yield favorable investment results. Recipients who are not market professional or institutional investor customer of HLBB should seek the advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on the recommendations in this report. HLBB may provide hyperlinks to websites of entities mentioned in this report, however the inclusion of a link does not imply that HLBB endorses, recommends or approves any material on the linked page or accessible from it. Such linked websites are accessed entirely at your own risk. HLBB does not accept responsibility whatsoever for any such material, nor for consequences of its use. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for the use of the addressees only and may not be redistributed, reproduced or passed on to any other person or published, in part or in whole, for any purpose, without the prior, written consent of HLBB. The manner of distributing this report may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries. Persons into whose possession this report may come are required to inform themselves about and to observe such restrictions. By accepting this report, a recipient hereof agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations. 10 Fixed Income & Economic Research
© Copyright 2024