1. society
2. work
3. unemployment

February 13, 2015
Global Markets Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Macroeconomics
•
Weekly Performance
and the ECB on Greek’s debt payments, which appears to have been making
stage this week, as Sweden central bank became the next central bank to
Macro
Currency
Equity
US
↔
↑
↑
EU
↑
↓
↑
↑
UK
↓
↑
↓
Japan
↑
↑
↓
↓
↑
↓
↑
↑
↑
↑
↑
↓
↓
↓
↓
↑
↑
Malaysia
↓
↔
↔
China
Hong Kong
Singapore
All eyes have been on the Eurozone this week on negotiations between Greece
10-y Govt Bond
Yields
some progress at time of writing. Easing monetary policies also took center
ease, slashing its repo rate by 10bps to -0.1% and introducing10bn krona bond-
↓
↑
purchase program. On the other hand, BOE signaled a hike in interest rate and
joining the US to be among the few to potentially tighten as output remains
solid and domestic growth robust amid declining oil prices.
•
On the data front, it was a mixed bag, surprisingly better in the Eurozone and
Japan, and to a certain extent, Malaysia. Meanwhile, US releases were a tad
softer but yet no harm done on the Fed normalization path. Disappointment in
China data meanwhile reaffirmed that rate cut is in the pipeline.
•
Next week, FOMC and BOE minutes will top investors’ radar especially the latter
where BOE has signaled the bias is still for a hike in its latest quarterly inflation
report even though the vote for a pause has turned unanimous in the previous
meeting vs 2 votes for a hike before. BOJ will most likely stay pat at next week’s
MPC meeting, especially Governor Kuroda’s comment on counter productive
stimulus meausres.
•
On the data front, the US will release housing starts and industrial production
prints. UK releases include CPI, unemployment rate and public finances.
Weekly MYR Performance
Zooming back to Asia, Japan’s exports data, China’s foreign investments,
Singapore’s GDP and Malaysia’s CPI are up next.
Forex
•
MYR rallied strongly yesterday on rebound in oil prices to overturn losses from
early week and advanced against 6 G10s. Against USD, MYR strengthened
0.22% WOW to close at 3.5587, its best closing in 7 days. Continued soft outlook
as well as extended decline in oil prices would take precedence in leading MYR
weaker, though we expect some rebounds on the back of USD consolidation, if
any. At this juncture, we do not se any positive catalyst for MYR, therefore we stay
bearish on MYR, with scope for a retest of 3.6040 level.
•
USD ended higher against 5 G10s on firmer demand for safer assets. The Dollar
Index was heading for a bigger weekly loss until the SNB’s unexpected decision to
remove EURCHF floor triggered massive inflow into the swiss safe haven as well
as supporting the greenback to a 92.35 close, just slightly off the 92.36 last
Thursday. We expect USD to remain firm, but note that upside strength has been
a suspect this week, and we are doubtful that it could sustain significant gains
given at already above 11y highs. There are no market moving data next week,
coupled with a rest day for the US on Monday, both of which could potentially shift
attention away from an improving US economy and soften bets on a hawkish Fed.
Indicative Yields
Fixed Income
•
Indicative Yields @ 12 February 2015
UST traded lower this week in the wake of three debt sales that brought an
additional $64bn into the market. Heightened concerns of a Greek exit from the
5.50
Eurozone spurred demand for this week’s debt auction especially from indirect
bidders which include foreign central banks. Yields were seen pushing higher
5.00
across the curve WOW with the 10s gaining 16bps to 1.98% (from 1.825%) while
4.50
2s gained 13bps to 0.63% (from 0.52%) as at yesterday’s close, We continue to
believe that UST will remain supported by additional stimulus and easing moves
4.00
by other central banks, which will only amplify its favourable yield premium as well
as safety appeal.
3.50
•
3.00
At the local front, MYR govvies rangetraded earlier in the week before the big
move lower seen Wednesday. Local govvies were sold off mid-week amid a
1
2
MGS
3
Cagamas (Old)
4
5
6
Cagamas (new)
7
8
IRS
9
AAA
10
AA
retreat in risk appetite after concerns over a Grexit heightened. WOW, benchmark
10-year MGS yields rose 12bps to 3.87% while the 3s seen settling 3.47%.
Weaker MYR performance also dampened demand for local govvies while better
than expected domestic data i.e. IPI and GDP did not change the underlying
Please see important disclosure at the end of the report
dynamics of the local bond space. We maintain that the search for higher yields
stemming from global policy easing could keep demand for local govvies
supported, although prospectrs of moderating growth outlook and OPR pause
could dampen MYR performance and demand for MGS.
1
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Contents
2
Macroeconomics
Page 3
Forex
Page 4
Trading Idea
Page 5
FX Technicals
Page 6
Fixed Income
Page 7
Economic Calendar
Page 8
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review
•
Macroeconomics
most debt stricken economy. Sentiments, however, improved today as
Greece and Germany were more willing to compromise on each side in a
6-month Macro Outlook
Economy
US
EU
UK
Japan
Australia
China
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Singapore
↔
↓
↓
↓
↔
↓
↓
↔
↔
↔
All eyes have been on the Eurozone this week as Greece and ECB have
yet to come up with an agreement on the debt payments of Eurozone’s
behind-the-scene negotiations in Brussels.
Inflation
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
Interest
Rate
Currency
↔
↓
↔
↔
↓
↓
↔
↓
↔
↔
↑
↓
↓
↓
↓
↔
↔
↔
↔
↔
•
Easing monetary policies also took center stage this week, as Sweden
central bank became the next central bank to cut, slashing its repo rate by
10bps to -0.1% and expand current bond-purchase program following a
five consecutive months of annual price declines. Joining ECB, PBOC
and other central banks in efforts to fuel up the economy amid
deflationary price levels, Riksbank will buy kronor 10B in government
bonds for up to 5 years and indicated room for more purchases should
inflation rate remain weak.
•
On the other hand, BOE signaled a hike in interest rate and joining the US
to be among the few to potentially tighten as output remains solid and
domestic growth robust amid declining oil prices. Timeline for the first
rate increase in seven years is forecasted to be in the third quarter of
2016, supported by tightened labor market, wage growth and pick up in
unit labor costs. According to the quarterly inflation report, price level will
breach the BOE’s 2.0% target in three years, with rate expected to hit
1.8% next year and 2.1% in 2017 (from a revised 0.5% in 2015) whilst
economic growth is expected at 2.9% this and next year before
moderating to 2.7% in 2017.
•
•
On the data front, it was a mixed bag, surprisingly better in the Eurozone
and Japan, and to a certain extent, Malaysia. Meanwhile, US releases
were a tad softer but yet no harm done on the Fed normalization path.
Bad weather in the US took a toll on the economy, as initial jobless claims
and retail sales underperformed. However, nonfarm payroll report was
robust, reaffirming solid recovery in the US job market, as wage and labor
participation increased.
Closer to home, China’s trade data reinforced the view of a slowing pace
in the world’s second largest economy as both imports and exports
slumped. We expect PBOC to cut interest rate again in the near term to
fuel growth.
•
Back home, GDP unexpectedly reaccelerated to 5.8% YOY in 4Q from a
5.6% increase in 3Q, as a result of quicker expansion in private sector
activities that offset the drag from net exports. We expect the Malaysian
economy to grow a tad modestly in the next two quarters and the well
spread-out BR1M payouts scheduled in Jan, May and Sept is expected to
smoothen the swing in our view. We forecast growth to be at 4.5% in
2015 while BNM will likely keep interest rate unchanged at 3.25% for the
entire year.
The Week Ahead…
•
Next week, FOMC and BOE minutes will top investors’ radar especially the
latter where BOE has signaled the bias is still for a hike in its latest
quarterly inflation report even though the vote for a pause has turned
unanimous in the previous meeting vs 2 votes for a hike before. BOJ will
most likely stay pat at next week’s MPC meeting, especially Governor
Kuroda’s comment on counter productive stimulus meausres.
•
On the data front, the US will release housing starts and industrial
production prints. UK releases include CPI, unemployment rate and public
finances. Zooming back to Asia, Japan’s exports data, China’s foreign
investments, Singapore’s GDP and Malaysia’s CPI are up next.
3
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review and Outlook
Forex
•
3.6285 on Thursday. Among neightbouring countries, MYR dropped
approximately 6.8% against INR, 4.7% against THB, 2.83% against CNY,
2.67% against IDR and 1.23% against SGD since the beginning of this
year. On the flipside, MYR strengthened against AUD (1.56%), NZD
(3.32%) and EUR (2.95%) in the same period due to low commodity
prices and looming uncertainties in the euro zone. Though BNM and
FOMC maintain interest rates as widely expected, divergence in
economic conditions, with US relatively optimistic will continue to weigh
down on the performance of MYR.
MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW)
-4.98
CHF
-2.57
MYR
Depreciated
AUD
SGD
-0.33
MYR
Appreciated
0.14
CNY
0.34
EUR
USD
0.74
HKD
0.76
0.91
JPY
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
•
1.13
GBP
0.00
MYR MYR continue to weakened against the USD this week, closing at
USD: We see another week of bullish USD as the greenback
outperformed 8G10. Dollar index continue its bullish momentum, already
at high seen since 2003. Market is increasingly expecting an interest rates
2.00
hike in the US as the US seems to stay resilient amid slower growth
observed across the globe. In line with IMF and World Bank outlook that
US will be the catalyst for growth in 2015, US recovering job market,
improved sentiments and stable housing market will give the Fed less
reasons to postpone interest rates hike. US outperformed its peers by
Source: Bloomberg
many metrics, further validating the strength of USD among G10. We
maintain bullish outlook for USD.
USD vs the G10s (% WOW)
CHF
-5.68
-3.29
-3.16
NZD
-2.21
CAD
Germany. CPI was -0.3% in Jan compared to 0.2% last month. Following
last week’s ECB assets buying program, left wing Syriza’s party victory in
-0.57 SEK
-0.40 EUR
-0.38 DKK
-2.00
Greece rocked the boat amid mounting concern that Greece will exit euro
zone. Annoucement by Tsipras that Greece will renegotiate debts
payment with no intention to abandone the euro calmed the market,
sending euro higher against USD. For now, EUR will likely trade sidelines.
0.17
0.38
GBP
-4.00
0.00
2.00
•
GBP: Sterling outperformed the USD this week, overshadowing some
losses yesterday. Against the greenback, GBP gained 0.38%. Following
modest GDP growth led by lackluster manufacturing sector and
contraction in mining and contruction sector, support came from outflow of
European and commodity majors.
•
JPY: JPY is the only other G10 besides GBP forerunning USD this week.
Source: Bloomberg
USD vs Asian Curencies (% WOW)
-1.06
SGD
-0.82
KRW
-0.76
USD
Appreciated -0.74
-0.60
IDR
-0.27
-0.13
political tension. Investors ‘risk-off mode’ was further escalated by victory
of anti-austerity left wing Syriza party. Gains due to its safe haven status
THB
will likely be offset by the challenging economic condition in Japan.
INR
-0.50
•
TWD
PHP
-1.00
JPY jumped 0.17% WOW higher against USD, boosted by inflow amid
uncertainties in euro zone and concern over Ukraine-Russia ongoing
CNY
HKD
-1.50
USD
Depreciated
MYR
-0.54
EUR: EUR weakened 0.4% WOW against USD but have rebounced
against its 11 year low of 1.1204 last week. EUR closed at 1.1320
yesterday, weakening 0.83% against USD led by weak price levels in
JPY
-6.00
•
NOK
-1.87
USD
Appreciated
USD
Depreciated
AUD
0.00
AUD:
AUD
declined 3.29%
0.30
0.50
Source: Bloomberg
•
Fixed Income & Economic Research
week
amid falling
commodity
SGD: MAS surprised the world two weeks ago with an unexpected
announcement to ease monetary policy. MAS will maintain slow and
gradual appreciation of SGD amid dovish inflation outlook. Hence we
expect SGD to remain bearish.
4
this
prices.Slowdown in China hurts Australia’s economy as Australia counts
China as one of its biggest trade partners. China grew at the slowest pace
in 24 years, as government is steering away from export oriented to a
consumption based economy. With the highest unemployment rate
observed in 12 years, RBA will likely keep interest rates accommodative,
further dampening the outlook for AUD.
0.01
Weekly Market Highlights
Technical Analysis:
Currency
Current price
14-day RSI
Support - Resistance
EURUSD
1.1396
43
1.1161
GBPUSD
1.5388
59
1.4945
USDJPY
118.95
53
USDCNY
6.2409
55
USDSGD
1.3572
AUDUSD
0.7743
NZDUSD
Moving Averages
Call
30 Days
100 Days
200 Days
1.1599
1.1161
1.1599
1.1516
POSITIVE
1.5393
1.4945
1.5393
1.5168
POSITIVE
116.67
119.92
116.67
119.92
118.2900
NEGATIVE
6.2106
6.2703
6.2106
6.2703
6.2292
NEUTRAL
63
1.3324
1.3638
1.3324
1.3638
1.3432
NEGATIVE
30
0.7581
0.8159
0.7581
0.8159
0.7963
POSITIVE
0.7430
44
0.7182
0.7665
0.7182
0.7665
0.7541
POSITIVE
USDMYR
3.5930
55
3.5496
3.6464
3.5496
3.6464
3.5878
NEUTRAL
EURMYR
4.0992
46
4.0134
4.1815
4.0134
4.1815
4.1368
POSITIVE
GBPMYR
5.5329
63
5.3842
5.5239
5.3842
5.5239
5.4395
POSITIVE
JPYMYR
3.0229
51
2.9788
3.1046
2.9788
3.1046
3.0332
NEUTRAL
CHFMYR
3.8736
53
3.7336
4.2081
3.7336
4.2081
3.8393
NEUTRAL
SGDMYR
2.6492
44
2.6244
2.7163
2.6244
2.7163
2.6718
POSITIVE
AUDMYR
2.7841
39
2.7118
2.9658
2.7118
2.9658
2.8611
POSITIVE
NZDMYR
2.6713
48
2.5754
2.7792
2.5754
2.7792
2.7084
POSITIVE
Trader’s Comment:
We started the week with the strength of US non-farm payrolls (+257,000) on last Friday night and the upward revision
to the previous month’s data show that, for the moment at least, the US economy has been able to resist the economic
weakness in other parts of the globe. We saw USD/JPY broke past 120 handle till Bank of Japan said to see consumer
sentiment hurt by any further YEN drop and as of writing, USDJPY made new intraday low of 118.50
The Eurogroup was unable to issue a joint statement yesterday, much less come to any sort of agreement, but Greece
was able to secure some short-term financing from the ECB’s Emergency Liquidity Assistance program, which bought
Greece enough time to pay its bills until at least the next Eurogroup meeting on Monday. Elsewhere, the Bank of
England issued a generally sanguine inflation report, suggesting that the BOE still plans to raise interest rates in 2016.
And Ukraine a Russia reached a cease-fire pact starting 15 Feb and sent Euro higher, at writing it made new intraday
high of 1.1440.
On the local currency MYR, with news on Ananda Krishnan’s has made the 2bio payment to 1MDB’s creditors ahead of
it’s 18 Feb dateline, players were upbeat and bought the MYR as sentiments turned positive. At time of writing it is at
3.5750, it has strengthen 1.5% from yesterday’s low.
Have a great weekend and we would like to wish all our readers a very happy and prosperous Chinese New Year!
5
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
FX Technical Charts
USDMYR
EURMYR
Resistance: 3.6464
Support: 3.5496
Resistance: 4.1815
Support: 4.0134
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
GBPMYR
JPYMYR
Resistance: 5.5239
Resistance: 3.1046
Support: 5.3842
Support: 2.9788
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
AUDMYR
SGDMYR
Resistance: 2.7163
Resistance: 2.9658
Support: 2.6244
Support: 2.7118
Source: Bloomberg
6
Source: Bloomberg
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review & Outlook
Fixed Income
• UST traded lower this week in the wake of three debt sales that
%
Benchmark MGS Yields
brought an additional $64bn into the market. Heightened concerns of a
Greek exit from the Eurozone as finance ministers in the region failed
to come to an agreement on Greece’s funding needs with no
extensions given to the end-Feb deadline spurred demand for this
week’s debt auction especially from indirect bidders which include
foreign central banks .
3Y MGS
5Y MGS
10Y MGS
5.2
4.7
4.2
3.7
3.2
• Yields were seen pushing higher across the curve WOW with the 10s
gaining 16bps to 1.98% (from 1.825%) while the 2s gained 13bps to
0.63% (from 0.52%) as at yesterday’s close, steepening the curve to
135bps, which nevertheless remaining close to the flattest levels in
about two years amid prospects of Fed rate normalization,which was
reiterated by solid job data last Friday. We continue to believe that
UST will remain supported by additional stimulus and easing moves by
other central banks, which will only amplify its favourable yield
premium as well as safety appeal.
2.7
bps
MGS Yield Spread
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jan-08
2.2
3/10Y
200
3/5Y
150
• At the local front, MYR govvies rangetraded earlier in the week before
the big move lower seen Wednesday. Local govvies saw profit taking
following earlier gains. WOW, benchmark 10-year MGS yields rose
12bps to 3.87% while the 3s settled at 3.47%. Weaker MYR
performance also dampened demand for local govvies while better
than expected domestic data i.e. IPI and GDP did not change the
100
50
%
underlying dynamics of the local bond space. With regional central
banks on policy rate easing mode with the latest coming from
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jul-08
-50
Jan-08
0
Sweden’s Riskbank, search for higher yields could be amplified further
lending some support for prospective buying on dips. Meanwhile
reopening of RM2.0b 7-year SPK saw a BTC of 2.4 times with tender
results of low, average and high of 4.08%, 4.103% and 4.115%.
Demand was supported by mainly local onshore demand. A separate
MYR IRS Curve
6.0
3Y IRS
5.5
private placement was conducted for the above mentioned sukuk with
size of RM2.0b worth.
5Y IRS
5.0
7Y IRS
4.5
• We maintain that the search for higher yields stemming from global
policy easing could keep demand for local govvies supported,
although prospectrs of moderating growth outlook and OPR pause
could dampen MYR performance. Hence, we opine trading sentiments
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
to shift towards a more tactical approach. On the PDS front, notable
interests were observed in GG and AAA-rated papers including
PTPTN, DanaInfra, PLUS, Cagamas, and Rantau. Power names were
also back on the radar namely SEB, Jimah, and Malakoff.
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
2.0
Rating Actions
Issuer
PDS Description
TTM Sukuk Berhad
RM600.0 million Sukuk Murabahah
Tenaga Nasional Berhad
Issuer rating
RM2.0 billion Al-Bai’ Bithaman Ajil Bonds
Financial institution ratings
Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank PJSC
Rating/Outlook
Action
AAAIS /Stable
Affirmed
AAA/ Stable
AAAID/Stable
AAA/ PI Stable
Affirmed
Reaffirmed
Golden Assets International
Finance Ltd
IMTN Programme of up to RM5.0bn (2012/2027)
AA3(s)/ Negative
Downgraded
Kuveyt Turk Katilim Bankasi AS
Financial institution ratings
Proposed Islamic MTN Programme of RM2.0bn
AA3/P1/ Stable
AA3 (s)/ Stable
Assigned
Assigned
Mudajaya Corporation Berhad
Islamic Debt Programmes
AA3 Negative
Revised outlook to
Negative
Source: MARC, RAM
7
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Economic Calendar Release Date
Date
Country
02/18
MA
02/24
CPI
Foreign Reserves
02/27
02/17
Event
US
02/18
13-Feb
Survey
Prior
Revised
--
2.70%
--
--
$110.6B
--
Money Supply M3 YoY
Jan
--
7.00%
--
Empire Manufacturing
Feb
8.5
9.95
--
NAHB Housing Market Index
Feb
58
57
--
MBA Mortgage Applications
13-Feb
--
-9.00%
--
Housing Starts MoM
Jan
-1.50%
4.40%
--
PPI MoM
Jan
-0.40%
-0.30%
--
Jan
0.30%
-0.10%
--
14-Feb
--
--
--
Industrial Production MoM
02/19
Reporting
Period
Jan
Initial Jobless Claims
FOMC minutes
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
Feb
9
6.3
--
Leading Index
Jan
0.30%
0.50%
--
53.9
--
02/20
Markit US Manufacturing PMI
Feb P
54
02/23
Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
Jan
--
-0.05
-0.05
Existing Home Sales MoM
Jan
--
2.40%
--
Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
Feb
--
-4.4
--
S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
Dec
--
4.31%
--
Feb P
--
54.2
--
02/24
Markit US Services PMI
02/25
Consumer Confidence Index
Feb
--
102.9
--
Richmond Fed Manufact. Index
Feb
--
6
---
MBA Mortgage Applications
02/26
20-Feb
--
--
New Home Sales MoM
Jan
--
11.60%
--
CPI MoM
Jan
--
-0.40%
--
Durable Goods Orders
Jan
--
-3.40%
-3.30%
Initial Jobless Claims
02/27
21-Feb
--
--
--
Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
Feb
--
3
--
GDP Annualized QoQ
4Q S
--
2.60%
--
Core PCE QoQ
4Q S
--
1.10%
--
Jan
--
-3.70%
--
Pending Home Sales MoM
U. of Mich. Sentiment
02/17
EU
02/19
02/20
Feb F
--
--
--
ZEW Survey Expectations
Feb
--
45.2
--
Construction Output MoM
Dec
--
-0.10%
--
ECB Current Account SA
Dec
--
18.1B
--
Consumer Confidence
Feb A
--
-8.5
--
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Feb P
--
51
--
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
Feb P
--
52.7
--
Jan
--
-0.10%
--
02/24
CPI MoM
02/26
Business Climate Indicator
Consumer Confidence
02/16
02/17
02/18
8
UK
Feb
--
0.16
--
Feb F
--
--
--
Economic Confidence
Feb
--
101.2
--
Rightmove House Prices YoY
Feb
--
8.20%
--
CPI MoM
Jan
--
0.00%
--
RPI MoM
Jan
--
0.20%
--
PPI Output NSA MoM
Jan
--
-0.30%
--
Jobless Claims Change
Jan
--
-29.7K
--
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths
Dec
--
5.80%
--
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Bank of England Minutes
02/19
CBI Trends Total Orders
Feb
--
4
--
02/20
Public Finances (PSNCR)
Jan
--
21.4B
--
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
Jan
--
0.20%
--
02/25
BBA Loans for House Purchase
Jan
--
35667
--
02/27
GfK Consumer Confidence
Feb
--
1
--
GDP QoQ
4Q P
--
0.50%
--
02/16
JP
02/17-02/20
02/18
Index of Services MoM
Dec
--
0.10%
--
GDP SA QoQ
4Q P
0.90%
-0.50%
--
Industrial Production MoM
Dec F
--
1.00%
--
Nationwide Dept Sales YoY
Jan
--
-1.70%
--
Jan F
--
20.40%
--
18-Feb
--
Â¥80T
--
Exports YoY
Jan
13.5
12.9
12.8
All Industry Activity Index MoM
Dec
--
0.10%
--
BOJ Monthly Economic Report
Feb
--
105.2
--
--
52.2
--
Machine Tool Orders YoY
BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement
02/19
Leading Index CI
Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report
Feb
02/20
Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI
02/23
Supermarket Sales YoY
Jan
--
-1.80%
--
02/24
Small Business Confidence
Feb
--
46.3
--
02/27
Jobless Rate
Jan
--
3.40%
--
Overall Household Spending YoY
Jan
--
-3.40%
--
Natl CPI YoY
Jan
--
2.40%
--
Industrial Production MoM
02/14
CH
02/25
02/17
HK
Feb P
Jan P
--
--
--
Retail Sales MoM
Jan
--
-0.30%
--
Housing Starts YoY
Jan
--
-14.70%
--
Construction Orders YoY
Jan
--
7.50%
--
Foreign Direct Investment YoY
Jan
--
10.30%
--
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI
Feb P
--
49.7
--
Unemployment Rate SA
Jan
--
3.30%
--
02/23
CPI Composite YoY
Jan
--
4.90%
--
02/25
GDP YoY
4Q
--
2.70%
--
02/26
Exports YoY
Jan
--
0.60%
--
GDP YoY
4Q F
1.70%
1.50%
--
Non-oil Domestic Exports YoY
Jan
1.70%
2.30%
--
02/17
SG
02/23
CPI YoY
Jan
--
-0.20%
--
02/26
Industrial Production YoY
Jan
--
-1.90%
--
02/24
VN
02/25-02/28
02/24
VN
02/25
02/25-02/28
CPI YoY
Feb
--
0.94%
--
Exports YTD YoY
Feb
--
9.70%
--
Industrial Production YoY
Feb
--
17.50%
--
Retail Sales YTD YoY
Feb
--
13.00%
--
CPI YoY
Feb
--
0.94%
--
Exports YTD YoY
Feb
--
9.70%
--
Industrial Production YoY
Feb
--
17.50%
--
Retail Sales YTD YoY
Feb
--
13.00%
--
0.00%
--
02/18
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
Jan
--
02/16
NZ
Performance Services Index
Jan
--
56.5
--
PPI Output QoQ
4Q
--
-1.10%
--
02/19
9
Dec F
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
ANZ Consumer Confidence Index
Feb
--
128.9
--
02/26
Exports
Jan
--
4.42B
--
02/27
Building Permits MoM
Jan
--
-2.10%
--
ANZ Activity Outlook
Feb
--
37.3
--
ANZ Business Confidence
Feb
--
30.4
--
Source: Bloomberg
10
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Hong Leong Bank Berhad
Fixed Income & Economic Research, Global Markets
Level 6, Wisma Hong Leong
18, Jalan Perak
50450 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: 603-2773 0469
Fax: 603-2164 9305
Email: HLMarkets@hlbb.hongleong.com.my
DISCLAIMER
This report is for information purposes only and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs
of any particular recipient. The information contained herein does not constitute the provision of investment advice and is not intended as
an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any of the financial instruments mentioned in this report and will not form the
basis or a part of any contract or commitment whatsoever.
The information contained in this publication is derived from data obtained from sources believed by Hong Leong Bank Berhad (“HLBB”) to
be reliable and in good faith, but no warranties or guarantees, representations are made by HLBB with regard to the accuracy,
completeness or suitability of the data. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the authors of the report and do not
necessarily represent the opinion of HLBB or any of the companies within the Hong Leong Bank Group (“HLB Group”). The opinions
reflected herein may change without notice and the opinions do not necessarily correspond to the opinions of HLBB. HLBB does not have
an obligation to amend, modify or update this report or to otherwise notify a reader or recipient thereof in the event that any matter stated
herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate.
HLB Group, their directors, employees and representatives do not have any responsibility or liability to any person or recipient (whether by
reason of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) arising from any statement, opinion or information, expressed or implied, arising
out of, contained in or derived from or omission from the reports or matter. HLBB may, to the extent permitted by law, buy, sell or hold
significantly long or short positions; act as investment and/or commercial bankers; be represented on the board of the issuers; and/or
engage in ‘market making’ of securities mentioned herein. The past performance of financial instruments is not indicative of future results.
Whilst every effort is made to ensure that statements of facts made in this report are accurate, all estimates, projections, forecasts,
expressions of opinion and other subjective judgments contained in this report are based on assumptions considered to be reasonable as
of the date of the document in which they are contained and must not be construed as a representation that the matters referred to therein
will occur. Any projections or forecasts mentioned in this report may not be achieved due to multiple risk factors including without limitation
market volatility, sector volatility, corporate actions, the unavailability of complete and accurate information. No assurance can be given that
any opinion described herein would yield favorable investment results. Recipients who are not market professional or institutional investor
customer of HLBB should seek the advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on the
recommendations in this report.
HLBB may provide hyperlinks to websites of entities mentioned in this report, however the inclusion of a link does not imply that HLBB
endorses, recommends or approves any material on the linked page or accessible from it. Such linked websites are accessed entirely at
your own risk. HLBB does not accept responsibility whatsoever for any such material, nor for consequences of its use.
This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any
state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report
is for the use of the addressees only and may not be redistributed, reproduced or passed on to any other person or published, in part or in
whole, for any purpose, without the prior, written consent of HLBB. The manner of distributing this report may be restricted by law or
regulation in certain countries. Persons into whose possession this report may come are required to inform themselves about and to
observe such restrictions. By accepting this report, a recipient hereof agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
11
Fixed Income & Economic Research