1. society
2. work
3. unemployment

February 27, 2015
Global Markets Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Macroeconomics
•
Weekly Performance
Macro
US
EU
UK
Japan
Malaysia
China
Hong Kong
Singapore
Currency
↔
↔
↔
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↓
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Equity
out extension took center stage this week, overshadowing economic releases
↓
↓
↓
↓
↓
of the January meeting saying that ”many” expects rates to stay lower for longer
↑
↑
↑
↑
↑
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↓
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↑
Fed President Yellen semi-annual testimony to the Congress and Greek’s bail-
10-y Govt Bond
Yields
↓
↓
↓
↓
unitl the release of US CPI yesterday. Echoing the rather dovish FOMC minutes
amid soft inflation, Fed Yellen reiterated this week that the Fed could be patient
and will not be raising rates in the “next couple of meetings”. This further pushed
back expectations of timing of the first Fed rate hike to later part of the year.
•
On the data front, releases were largely mixed and neutral this week pointing to
an overall still soft growth backdrop while inflation saw deeper declines, all
taking the hit from lower energy and food prices. Should oil prices continue to
stabilize or recover, March/April could see a renewed uptick in inflation numbers.
•
The calendar is busy next week. Topping the radar will be a number of policy
meetings most notably ECB for details on its asset purchase programme, as well
as BOE and BNM on the same day (5-March). Next week also sees the release
of a number of first tier economic indicators – 4Q GDP from the Eurozone and
Australia; the highly watched nonfarm payroll and other job data, PMI
manufacturing and services prints across the globe.
Forex
•
Weekly MYR Performance
MYR rallied strongly for 2 consecutive sessions ended yesterday to strengthen
1.1% WOW against USD at 3.5840 while closing higher against all G10s. USD
softness was predominantly the main cause of MYR’s rebound though firmer
MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW)
crude oil prices did add to the recovery momentum. We expect only a slim chance
-2.57
for MYR to extend its recovery to circa 3.5660 next week, with firm reliance on a
EUR
-1.47
softer USD and higher oil prices. Apart from these, there will unlikely be positive
JPY
-1.42
catalysts to spark a recovery given that markets will be eyeing BNM decision on
OPR (no change in our view) and Malaysian exports data toward the end of next
CHF
MYR
Appreciated
-1.15
CNY
-1.14
GBP
-1.10
USD
-1.08
SGD
-1.05
-0.99
week to gauge the sentiment surrounding MYR.
•
USD overturned early losses to beat 7 G10s while the Dollar Index surged to
95.29, highest in a 11.5y, after slipping to lowest in a week following a noncommmitttal tone by Fed Chair Yellen on monetary policy. Instead, she signaled
HKD
that policy movement would unlikely come in 1H, dampening prospects of an
earlier than expected hike. With that, we expect US data to take centre stage
AUD
going forward given that rate hike prospect hinges on economic performance
afterall. Tonight’s US GDP and PCE will start the ball rolling followed by a slew of
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
vital US indicators including employment, income, spending and manufacturing
data that would make or break USD next week. Currently, we expect USD to
trade on a softer bias leading up to various data, particularly ADP and NFP, with
scope for strong rallies on the back of encouraging figures.
Indicative Yields
Fixed Income
• The UST curve flattened circa 11bps WOW wth the 2/10 spread narrowing to
Indicative Yields @ 26 February 2015
138bps as a combo of Greek bailout concerns and Fed Yellen’s dovish address to
the Congress spurred demand for UST. 10-year note yields fell below the 2.00%
5.50
level to a low of 1.97% before climbing back up to 2.03% as at yesterday’s close
5.00
as a rise in core inflation gauge reignited expectation for an earlier Fed rate hike.
With Greek concerns and Yellen’s testimony out of the way, we expect markets to
4.50
keep their eyes on economic releases for further clues on the timing of the Fed
rate normalization. We continue to expect UST to be well supported by widening
4.00
yield differential as other major central banks embark on fresh round of easing or
3.50
refrained from tightening.
• At the local front, MYR govvies traded on a biddish note this week, as improving
3.00
1
2
MGS
3
Cagamas (Old)
4
5
6
Cagamas (new)
7
8
IRS
9
AAA
10
AA
risk sentiments and stronger performance in the MYR increased the appeal of
local govvies. Demand for local govvies also saw a lift from dovish comments
from Fed Yellen, amplifying the search for higher yielding assets. WOW,
benchmark 10-year MGS yields fell 3bps to 3.86% while the 3s settled 6bps lower
at 3.42%. Amid expectation that BNM will keep OPR steady at 3.25% this year,
Please see important disclosure at the end of the report
vis-à-vis many other central banks and regional peers who have opted/ signaled
to ease, demand for this week’s RM4.0bn GII 08/20 attracted good demand with a
bid-cover of 3.01x. We maintain that the search for higher yields will keep demand
for local govvies supported, more so if MYR bulls make a return.
1
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Contents
2
Macroeconomics
Page 3
Forex
Page 4
Trading Idea
Page 5
FX Technicals
Page 6
Fixed Income
Page 7
Economic Calendar
Page 8
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review
•
Macroeconomics
By the end of Yellen’s testimony before the Congress, stocks market
continue to rally to record high following her statement of no interest rate
hike in the next few FOMC meetings. Yellen reiterated that the next rate
hike will be data dependent, hence no scheduled time table for the hike.
6-month Macro Outlook
Economy
US
EU
UK
Japan
Australia
China
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Singapore
↔
↓
↓
↓
↔
↓
↓
↔
↔
↔
Inflation
↔
↔
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Interest
Rate
Currency
↔
↓
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↔
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↓
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Our stand is still on an interest rate hike in 2H2015, supported by evidence
of recovery in the job market which would fuel domestic demand. Data
wise, inflation in the US fell by 0.7% in Jan as oil prices turned south of
USD 50 per barrel. The market interpreted cheap oil as catalyst for growth
in household spending as consumers now have more savings in their
pockets from the lower cost in fuel, sending dollar index to decade high.
Other less optimistic data have less bearing relatively.
•
After prolonged negotiation between Greece and euro zone’s authority, an
agreement has finally materialized for a four- month bailout extension for
cash crunch Greece. Prior to this week, development in Greece took
precedent as risk of Grexit loomed. In the coming week, all eyes will be on
ECB’s very first QE implementation in March as details of the program will
likely make headlines in the weeks ahead. Inflation continue to trend south
in Jan, tumbling by 1.6% MOM in Jan (-0.1% in Dec) while services and
manufacturing PMI outperformed previous prints.
•
In Japan, national CPI sustained a 2.4% YOY increase in Jan for the third
consecutive month. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, inflation
stood at 2.1% in the same month. Unemployment soared to 3.6% in Jan, a
0.2%-point increase from the print in Dec. Industrial production jumped
more than expected by 4.0% MOM in Jan while decline in retail sales
deepened to 1.3% (Dec: -0.4%).
•
In other parts of Asia, particularly Hong Kong and China, data was broadly
upbeat due to spike in demand brought about by the festive season. Hong
Kong shipments soared by 2.8% in Jan (+0.6% in Dec) while China’s Feb
Manufacturing PMI expanded to 50.1 from 49.7 in Jan. On the other side
of the coin, Hong Kong grew at a slower pace of 2.2% in 4Q (+2.7% in
3Q), underscoring weak external demand. Hong Kong government took a
cue amid modest global outlook by increasing tax cuts and boosting proSME measures in budget 2015/16.
The Week Ahead…
•
The calendar is busy next week. Topping the radar will be a number of
policy meetings most notably ECB for details on its asset purchase
programme, as well as BOE and BNM on the same day (5-March). We
expect no change in rates and little change in the policy stance of BOE
and BNM although there are growing noises for the latter to ease. RBA
meeting will also be an interesting watch.
•
Next week also sees the release of a number of first tier economic
indicators – 4Q GDP from the Eurozone and Australia; the highly watched
nonfarm payroll and other job data, PMI manufacturing and services prints
across the globe. Other crucial releases out of the US include Fed Beige
Book to have better clues on regional performances, trade balance, and
ADP employment while Eurozone ‘s releases include CPI, unemployment
rate and retail sales. There are also a number of Australian data worth
watching next week: new home sales, retail sales and trade balance. Back
home, January exports are due and we are expecting a flat YOY print.
3
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review and Outlook
Forex
• MYR: MYR rallied strongly for 2 consecutive sessions ended yesterday to
strengthen 1.1% WOW against USD at 3.5840 while closing higher against all
G10s. USD softness was predominantly the main cause of MYR’s rebound
MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW)
-2.57
EUR
-1.47
JPY
reliance on a softer USD and higher oil prices. Apart from these, there will
unlikely be positive catalysts to spark a recovery given that markets will be
-1.15
CNY
eyeing BNM decision on OPR (no change in our view) and Malaysian exports
-1.14
GBP
-2.50
-2.00
data toward the end of next week to gauge the sentiment surrounding MYR.
-1.10
USD
• USD: USD overturned early losses to beat 7 G10s while the Dollar Index surged
-1.08
SGD
to 95.29, highest in a 11.5y, after slipping to lowest in a week following a noncommmitttal tone by Fed Chair Yellen on monetary policy. Instead, she signaled
HKD
-1.05
-0.99
-3.00
a slim chance for MYR to extend its recovery to circa 3.5660 next week, with firm
CHF
-1.42
MYR
Appreciated
though firmer crude oil prices did add to the recovery momentum. We expect only
-1.50
AUD
that policy movement would unlikely come in 1H, dampening prospects of an
earlier than expected hike. With that, we expect US data to take centre stage
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
going forward given that rate hike prospect hinges on economic performance
afterall. Tonight’s US GDP and PCE will start the ball rolling followed by a slew of
vital US indicators including employment, income, spending and manufacturing
data that would make or break USD next week. Currently, we expect USD to
Source: Bloomberg
trade on a softer bias leading up to various data, particularly ADP and NFP, with
scope for strong rallies on the back of encouraging figures.
USD vs the G10s (% WOW)
• EUR: EUR tumbled against 9 G10s and weakened 1.50% WOW to 1.1198
DKK
-1.72
-1.50
against a surging USD. Gains from optimism over Greek government funding
EUR
USD
NOK Depreciated
-0.94
-0.39
USD
Appreciated
various hurdles that Greece would have to face in the coming months.
CHF
-0.34
-0.16 CAD
-0.05 GBP
Performance in Eurozone data next week would have little bearing on a slightly
bearish EURUSD direction, and any gains would likely be dictated by USD
weakness. There is scope for a rebound to 1.1260 on excessive losses but we
0.10
0.21
0.22
NZD
SEK
-1.50
-1.00
prevail net week ahead of ECB announcement on details of its QE coupled with
JPY
AUD
-2.00
extension lifted EUR in early week but we believe that volatily would continue to
-0.50
0.00
0.50
expect a slip to circa 1.1120 to be more likely.
• GBP: GBP climbed on the back of rather hawkish comments from BOE official
Martin Weale only to slip 0.05% WOW lower to 1.5407 against a surging USD.
GBP advanced against 6 G10s. We are currently neutral on GBPUSD that could
go either way next week. The pair will be guided by performance of UK and US
data but we opine that USD strength/ weakness will likely be the ultimate
Source: Bloomberg
determinant in overall direction, unless jitters over Greece decided to rear its
head again. Technically, upsides will likely stall approaching 1.55 mark while the
pair looks well supported at 1.5340.
USD vs Asian Curencies (% WOW)
• JPY: JPY remained on a weaker footing against its peers, sliding against 7 G10s
-0.06 CNY
IDR
0.01
SGD
0.01
HKD
PHP
USD
Appreciated THB
and weakened 0.39% WOW against a surging USD to 119.41. Risk appetite
USD
Depreciated
0.05
driven as fundamentals continue to impact the currency to the downside in the
longer timeframe. We maintain the view of a rangebound trade 118.60 – 119.65.
0.53
0.87
• AUD: AUD gains were erased by a surging USD, closing 0.1% WOW lower at
0.95
INR
0.7800 though bids remained firm on rebound in commodities and equities as it
1.01
KRW
beat 8 G10s. We currently expect AUDUSD to remain on a downside bias next
1.10
MYR
0.00
We remain neutral on USDJPY for next week, depending on which way US data
goes. We caution that JPY rally, if any, would likely be short-term and sentiment-
0.26
TWD
-0.50
showed slight revival in mid-week and that dampened JPY’s demand somewhat.
0.50
1.00
week as markets await vital US data and more so leading up to a deluge of
1.50
Australian data, including the important RBA cash rate decision. Tying in with
technicals, AUDUSD appears overall bid with scope to retest 0.7882 above the
crucial 0.7784 mark, below which 0.7700 could possibly be lost.
Source: Bloomberg
• SGD: SGD was mostly leading USD through the week before slumping yesterday
to slip into a 0.01% WOW loss at 1.3581. Against its peers, SGD was up against
8 G10s. We expect SGD to stay soft next week in line with markets’ refrain from
heavy positioning awaiting direction from US data. Firmer Singapore PMI would
give SGD an early boost but in the event that USD extends its surge, we reckon
that gains may not be be enough to cushion the downsides.
4
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Technical Analysis:
Currency
Current price
14-day RSI
Support - Resistance
EURUSD
1.1210
35
1.1220
GBPUSD
1.5424
56
1.5095
USDJPY
119.24
54
USDCNY
6.2587
USDSGD
1.3565
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
Moving Averages
Call
30 Days
100 Days
200 Days
1.1490
1.1220
1.1490
1.1365
Negative
1.5573
1.5095
1.5573
1.5254
Positive
117.26
120.26
117.26
120.26
118.52
Neutral
63
6.2393
6.2640
6.2393
6.2640
6.2439
Positive
57
1.3464
1.3633
1.3464
1.3633
1.3511
Positive
0.7814
45
0.7722
0.7868
0.7722
0.7868
0.7853
Negative
0.7549
55
0.7300
0.7613
0.7300
0.7613
0.7459
Negative
USDMYR
3.6015
51
3.5428
3.6551
3.5428
3.6551
3.6024
Positive
EURMYR
4.0350
35
4.0258
4.1497
4.0258
4.1497
4.0984
Positive
GBPMYR
5.5519
56
5.3742
5.6502
5.3742
5.6502
5.4922
Positive
JPYMYR
3.0183
48
2.9711
3.0897
2.9711
3.0897
3.0396
Positive
CHFMYR
3.7751
41
3.7840
3.9129
3.7840
3.9129
3.9222
Positive
SGDMYR
2.6523
46
2.6252
2.6853
2.6252
2.6853
2.6669
Positive
AUDMYR
2.8125
47
2.7493
2.8576
2.7493
2.8576
2.8328
Negative
NZDMYR
2.7172
54
2.5963
2.7649
2.5963
2.7649
2.6908
Negative
Trader’s Comment:
It was a yo-yo session for the US during the week. USD started off better bid as markets awaited key testimony from
Fed Chair Janet Yellen but took a turn in the opposite direction as the Fed is in no rush to raise rates according to
Yellen’s semi annual testimony. But they will change their forward guidance by dropping the word ‘patient’ in the
monetary statement paving the way for a rate hike.
The EUR remain range bound since the beginning of the week but traded higher in midweek due to Yellen’s speech but
the currency also benefitted from the European Commission’s acceptance of Greek reform proposals. After missing
their deadline on Monday, the Greek government sent a detailed list of reforms that they plan to enact by June which
the Eurogroup and the ECB approved the reform plan, locking in a 4 month bailout extension for Greece. Just when
market thought will see some short squeeze in the EURUSD – the pair was traded below 1.1200 (from 1.1380) thanks
to US data and Fed's Bullard noted on CNBC the FOMC should remove 'patient' from its March policy statement and
clear the way for a rate hike.
The AUD was performing very well and supported by the recovery in commodity prices during the early trading week
but the influence of accommodating monetary policy continues to dominate financial markets. Market is pricing in
another 25 bps cut from the RBA in next meeting which sent the AUDUSD lower as signs of slowing growth has
increased.
USDMYR returned from Chinese New Year break and gapped higher to 3.6465 on back of 1MDB worries and took a
plunge to 3.5830 covering the gap on strong profit taking interests and funds taking out long USD positions. Range
going forward will likely be wide and volatile. Suggest 3.55-3.65 near term as it continues to whipsaw amidst poor
liquidity.
5
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
FX Technical Charts
USDMYR
EURMYR
Resistance: 3.6551
Support: 3.5428
Resistance: 4.1497
Support: 4.0258
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
GBPMYR
JPYMYR
Resistance: 5.6502
Resistance: 3.0897
Support: 5.3742
Support: 2.9711
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
AUDMYR
SGDMYR
Resistance: 2.6853
Support: 2.6252
Resistance: 2.8576
Support: 2.7493
Source: Bloomberg
6
Source: Bloomberg
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Review & Outlook
Fixed Income
• The UST curve flattened circa 11bps WOW wth the 2/10 spread
%
Benchmark MGS Yields
3Y MGS
5Y MGS
10Y MGS
5.2
4.7
4.2
3.7
3.2
2.7
bps
MGS Yield Spread
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jan-08
2.2
3/10Y
200
3/5Y
150
fresh round of easing or refrained from tightening.
100
• At the local front, MYR govvies traded on a biddish note this week, as
improving risk sentiments and stronger performance in the MYR
50
%
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
0
-50
narrowing to 138bps as a combo of Greek bailout concerns and Fed
Yellen’s dovish address to the Congress spurred demand for UST. In
line with a dovish FOMC minutes released just last week, Fed Yellen
reiterated that the Fed could be patient in raising interest rates and
that guidance provided by the Fed is not a rate timetable, reinforcing
believes that interst rates will be increase in 2H15. This supplied a bid
to UST, pushing 10-year note yields below the 2.00% level to a low of
1.97% before climbing back up to 2.03% as at yesterday’s close as a
rise in core inflation gauge reignited expectation for an earlier Fed rate
hike. The front end 2-year note yields meanwhile added 3bps WOW to
0.65%. This week’s debt auctions were also well-received, with the
$35bn 5-year notes attracted a bid-cover of 2.54x and the US$29bn 7year notes received a bid-cover of 2.37x. With Greek concerns and
Yellen’s testimony out of the way, we expect markets to keep their
eyes on economic releases for further clues on the timing of the Fed
rate normalization. We continue to expect UST to be well supported
by widening yield differential as other major central banks embark on
increased the appeal of local govvies. Trading activities also gained
traction as daily transaction volume picked up from below RM1.0bn
done to above RM4.0bn as more investors returned to the market after
the Lunar New Year holiday. Demand for local govvies also saw a lift
from dovish comments from Fed Yellen, amplifying the search for
higher yielding assets as the Fed signaled rates will remain as it is in
the “next couple of meetings”. WOW, benchmark 10-year MGS yields
fell 3bps to 3.86% while the 3s settled 6bps lower at 3.42%. Amid
expectation that BNM will keep OPR steady at 3.25% this year, vis-à-
MYR IRS Curve
6.0
3Y IRS
5.5
5Y IRS
5.0
7Y IRS
vis many other central banks and regional peers who have opted/
signaled to ease, demand for this week’s RM4.0bn GII 08/20 attracted
3.5
good demand with a bid-cover of 3.01x with a high, average and low
yields of 3.805%, 3.799%, and 3.787% respectively. We maintain that
the search for higher yields will keep demand for local govvies
3.0
supported, more so if MYR bulls make a return.
4.5
4.0
2.5
Jan-15
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
2.0
• On the PDS front, we continue to see notable interests in GG and
AAA-rated papers including GovCo, DanaInfra, PTPTN, PLUS, ADCB,
and Aman Sukuk. Expect bargain hunting to continue following fresh
leads seen in MYR govvies, amid more appealing credit spreads.
Rating Actions
Issuer
PDS Description
Nil
Source: MARC, RAM
7
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Rating/Outlook
Action
Weekly Market Highlights
Economic Calendar Release Date
Date
Country
03/05/15
MA
Reporting
Period
5-Mar
Survey
Prior
Revised
3.25%
3.25%
--
Jan
--
2.70%
--
27-Feb
--
$110.5B
--
Industrial Production YoY
Jan
--
7.40%
--
Manufacturing Sales Value YoY
Jan
--
2.10%
--
Personal Income
Jan
0.40%
0.30%
--
Personal Spending
Jan
-0.10%
-0.30%
--
PCE Core MoM
Jan
0.10%
0.00%
--
Feb F
--
54.3
--
ISM Manufacturing
Feb
53.3
53.5
--
03/03/15
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
Mar
--
47.5
--
03/04/15
MBA Mortgage Applications
27-Feb
--
-3.50%
--
Feb
210K
213K
--
Feb F
54.5
57
--
Feb
56.5
56.7
--
03/06/15
Event
BNM Overnight Policy Rate
Exports YoY
Foreign Reserves
03/12/15
03/02/15
US
Markit US Manufacturing PMI
ADP Employment Change
Markit US Services PMI
ISM Non-Manf. Composite
03/05/15
U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
Initial Jobless Claims
28-Feb
--
--
--
Factory Orders
Jan
-0.10%
-3.40%
--
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Feb
245K
257K
--
Unemployment Rate
Feb
5.60%
5.70%
--
Trade Balance
Jan
-$42.5B
-$46.6B
--
03/07/15
Consumer Credit
Jan
$15.000B
$14.755B
--
03/10/15
NFIB Small Business Optimism
Feb
--
97.9
--
Wholesale Inventories MoM
Jan
--
0.10%
--
03/11/15
MBA Mortgage Applications
6-Mar
--
--
--
03/12/15
Retail Sales Advance MoM
Feb
--
-0.80%
--
7-Mar
--
--
--
03/06/15
Initial Jobless Claims
Business Inventories
Jan
--
0.10%
--
PPI Final Demand MoM
Feb
--
-0.80%
--
U. of Mich. Sentiment
Mar P
--
--
--
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Feb F
--
51.1
--
Unemployment Rate
Jan
--
11.40%
--
CPI Estimate YoY
Feb
--
--
--
Feb A
--
0.60%
--
Jan
--
-1.00%
--
Feb F
--
53.9
--
Retail Sales MoM
Jan
--
0.30%
--
Markit Eurozone Retail PMI
Feb
--
46.6
--
ECB Main Refinancing Rate
5-Mar
--
0.05%
--
03/06/15
GDP SA QoQ
4Q P
--
0.30%
--
03/09/15
Sentix Investor Confidence
Mar
--
12.4
--
03/13/15
03/02/15
EC
CPI Core YoY
03/03/15
PPI MoM
03/04/15
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
03/05/15
03/12/15
Industrial Production SA MoM
Jan
--
0.00%
--
Nationwide House Px NSA YoY
Feb
6.20%
6.80%
--
Net Consumer Credit
Jan
--
0.6B
--
Mortgage Approvals
Jan
--
60.3K
--
Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA
Feb
--
53
--
03/03/15
Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI
Feb
--
59.1
--
03/04/15
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI
Feb
--
57.2
--
03/05/15
BOE Asset Purchase Target
Mar
--
375B
--
Bank of England Bank Rate
5-Mar
0.50%
0.50%
--
Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year
Feb
--
8.50%
--
Industrial Production MoM
Jan
--
-0.20%
--
NIESR GDP Estimate
Feb
--
0.70%
--
RICS House Price Balance
Feb
--
7%
--
03/02/15
03/05/15-03/10/15
03/11/15
03/12/15
8
UK
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn
03/02/15
JN
Jan
--
-£10154
--
Feb F
--
51.5
--
Feb
--
51.3
--
Jan P
--
105.6
--
Jan
--
Â¥187.2B
--
GDP SA QoQ
4Q F
--
0.60%
--
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
Feb
--
50
--
Feb P
--
20.40%
--
Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI
03/04/15
Markit Japan Services PMI
03/06/15
Leading Index CI
03/09/15
BoP Current Account Balance
03/10/15
Machine Tool Orders YoY
03/11/15
PPI YoY
Feb
--
0.30%
--
Machine Orders MoM
Jan
--
8.30%
--
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
Jan
--
-0.30%
--
BSI Large All Industry QoQ
1Q
--
5
--
03/12/15
03/13/15
03/02/15
CH
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
1Q
--
8.1
--
Consumer Confidence Index
Feb
--
39.1
--
Industrial Production MoM
Jan F
--
--
--
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI
Feb F
50.1
50.1
---
03/04/15
HSBC China Services PMI
Feb
--
51.8
03/08/15
Exports YoY
Feb
--
-3.30%
--
03/10/15
CPI YoY
Feb
--
0.80%
--
PPI YoY
Feb
--
-4.30%
--
Retail Sales YTD YoY
Feb
--
--
--
Industrial Production YTD YoY
Feb
--
--
--
Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY
Feb
--
--
--
Retail Sales Value YoY
Jan
--
-3.90%
--
03/04/15
HSBC Hong Kong PMI
Feb
--
49.4
--
03/13/15
Industrial Production YoY
4Q
--
-1.80%
--
PPI YoY
4Q
--
1.30%
---
03/11/15
03/03/15
HK
03/02/15
VN
HSBC Vietnam Manufacturing PMI
Feb
--
51.5
03/03/15
SG
Purchasing Managers Index
Feb
--
49.9
--
Unemployment rate SA
4Q F
--
1.90%
--
Retail Sales YoY
Jan
--
2.60%
--
AiG Perf of Mfg Index
Feb
--
49
--
HIA New Home Sales MoM
Jan
--
-1.90%
--
BoP Current Account Balance
4Q
--
-12.5B
--
Building Approvals MoM
Jan
--
-3.30%
--
3-Mar
2.25%
2.25%
--
AiG Perf of Services Index
Feb
--
49.9
--
GDP SA QoQ
4Q
--
0.30%
--
Retail Sales MoM
Jan
--
0.20%
--
Trade Balance
Jan
--
-436M
--
03/06/15
AiG Perf of Construction Index
Feb
--
45.9
--
03/10/15
NAB Business Conditions
Feb
--
2
--
NAB Business Confidence
Feb
--
3
--
Westpac Consumer Conf Index
Mar
--
100.7
--
Home Loans MoM
Jan
--
2.70%
--
03/13/15
03/02/15
AU
03/03/15
RBA Cash Rate Target
03/04/15
03/05/15
03/11/15
03/12/15
03/10/15-03/13/15
NZ
Consumer Inflation Expectation
Mar
--
4.00%
--
Employment Change
Feb
--
-12.2K
--
Unemployment Rate
Feb
--
6.40%
--
REINZ House Price Index MoM
Feb
--
-1.00%
--
12-Mar
3.50%
3.50%
--
Feb
--
50.9
--
03/12/15
RBNZ Official Cash Rate
03/13/15
BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI
Source: Bloomberg
9
Fixed Income & Economic Research
Weekly Market Highlights
Hong Leong Bank Berhad
Fixed Income & Economic Research, Global Markets
Level 6, Wisma Hong Leong
18, Jalan Perak
50450 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: 603-2773 0469
Fax: 603-2164 9305
Email: HLMarkets@hlbb.hongleong.com.my
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10
Fixed Income & Economic Research