3QFY2015 Result Update | Banking January 21, 2015 Federal Bank NEUTRAL Performance Highlights CMP Target Price Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT 3QFY15 587 397 265 2QFY15 606 410 240 % chg (qoq) (3.1) (3.0) 10.1 3QFY14 546 356 230 % chg (yoy) 7.6 11.6 15.0 Source: Company, Angel Research Federal Bank reported a moderate set of numbers for 3QFY2015, with NII growth at 7.6% yoy and pre-provisioning profit growth at 11.6% yoy. A provisioning write back of `0.8cr aided the bank to report an earnings growth of 15%. `145 - Investment Period - Stock Info Banking Sector Market Cap (` cr) 12,409 Beta 1.4 52 Week High / Low 153.6/72.45 Avg. Daily Volume Advances growth remains healthy; NIM fell qoq During 3QFY2015, the bank witnessed a healthy loan growth of 15.3% yoy, while deposits grew by 13.5% yoy. Growth in advances was led by the Agri and SME books, which grew by 26.8% and 17.7% yoy, respectively. The Management has guided at a loan growth of around 18% for FY2015 with traction in Retail and SME segments. CASA deposits increased by 14% yoy with CASA ratio improving by 13bp yoy to 30.5%. The Reported NIM fell by 15bp qoq to 3.2%. However, had interest on income tax refund of `27cr in 2QFY2015 been adjusted, the NIM would have been stable on a qoq basis. During the quarter, the bank registered a moderate growth of 3.0% yoy on the non-interest income (excluding treasury) front. Trading gains during the quarter came in at `77.5cr as against `18cr in 3QFY2014. Cost to income increased by 148bp yoy to 50% for the quarter. Employee expenses increased by 33% yoy, mainly due to higher provision for retirement related expenses. On the asset quality front, the annualized slippage ratio was higher at 2.2% as compared to 1.6% in 2QFY2015 and 1.3% in 3QFY2014. During the quarter, the bank witnessed slippages of `234cr, out of which slippages from the retail segment amounted to `30cr, SME segment slippage came in at `63cr and slippage from the corporate account stood at `125cr. Recoveries and upgrades were lower at `198cr during the quarter resulting in increase in absolute Gross NPA levels by 3.5% qoq to `1,067cr. Higher slippages led to a marginal increase in the Gross NPA ratio by 9bp qoq to 2.19%. Net NPA was flat qoq at 0.7%. The bank has restructured advances worth `40.7cr as against `68cr in 2QFY2015, with the outstanding restructured book at `2,427cr. 4,06,457 Face Value (`) 2 BSE Sensex 28,785 Nifty 8,695 Reuters Code FED.BO FB@IN Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 0.0 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 28.2 FII / NRIs / OCBs 38.9 Indian Public / Others 32.9 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex 8.9 35.7 69.8 FB 4.7 75.4 89.9 Outlook and valuation: After having witnessed severe pressure in the last few years, the bank’s asset quality has been showing improvement over the past few quarters (on lower slippages and better recoveries/upgrades). While we remain watchful of the bank’s near term performance on the asset quality front, the stock’s current valuation at 1.5x its FY2016E P/ABV offers limited scope of upside from here on. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Key financials Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%) FY2013 1,953 11.8 777 32.3 3.6 9.1 14.8 2.0 1.4 14.4 FY2014 2,229 12.9 839 0.1 3.2 9.8 14.8 1.8 1.2 12.6 FY2015E 2,384 7.0 999 19.1 3.2 11.7 12.4 1.6 1.3 13.6 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of January 20, 2015 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report FY2016E 2,714 13.8 1,045 4.6 3.2 12.2 11.9 1.5 1.2 12.9 Vaibhav Agrawal 022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com Umesh Matkar 022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6839 umesh.matkar@angelbroking.com 1 Federal Bank | 3QFY2015 Result Update Exhibit 1: 3QFY2015 performance Particulars (` cr) 3QFY15 2QFY15 % chg (qoq) 3QFY14 % chg (yoy) FY2014 FY2013 % chg Interest earned 1,870 1,870 0.0 1,740 7.5 6,946 6,168 12.6 - on Advances / Bills 1,399 1,363 2.6 1,266 10.5 5,011 4,636 8.1 449 453 (0.8) 461 (2.6) 1,777 1,465 21.3 21 23 (11.5) 11 95.4 52 56 (7.1) - on investments - on balance with RBI & others - on others 1 31 (95.2) 2 (14.6) 106 11 12.5 1,283 1,264 1.5 1,194 7.4 4,717 4,193 12.5 Net Interest Income 587 606 (3.1) 546 7.6 2,229 1,975 12.9 Other income 220 196 12.3 156 40.7 694 664 4.4 - Other income excl. treasury 142 154 (7.4) 138 3.0 540 459 17.7 Interest Expended - Treasury Income 77 42 84.4 18 330.3 154 206 (25.2) Operating income 807 802 0.7 702 15.0 2,922 2,639 10.7 Operating expenses 410 392 4.5 346 18.4 1,392 1,185 17.5 - Employee expenses 235 204 15.3 177 33.0 722 631 14.3 - Other Opex 175 188 (7.2) 169 3.2 671 553 21.2 Pre-provision Profit 397 410 (3.0) 356 11.6 1,530 1,455 5.2 (1) 46 (101.8) 7 (111.2) 318 261 22.1 Provisions & Contingencies - Provisions for NPAs 56 66 (15.8) 11 428.9 228 224 1.8 (59) 8 (860.9) 50 (217.2) 112 (37) (403.8) 2 (28) (107.8) (53) (104.1) (35) 78 (144.9) PBT 398 364 9.4 349 14.2 1,212 1,194 1.5 Provision for Tax 133 124 7.9 118 12.7 373 356 4.9 - Provisions for Investments - Other Provisions PAT 265 240 10.1 230 15.0 839 838 0.1 Effective Tax Rate (%) 33.5 34.0 (47)bp 34.0 (46)bp 30.8 29.8 100bp Source: Company, Angel Research January 21, 2015 2 Federal Bank | 3QFY2015 Result Update Exhibit 2: 3QFY2015 performance Particulars 3QFY15 2QFY15 % chg (qoq) 3QFY14 % chg (yoy) Advances (`cr) 48,026 48,466 (0.9) 41,640 15.3 Deposits (` cr) 65,550 64,564 1.5 57,737 13.5 73.3 75.1 (180)bp 72.1 115bp Balance sheet Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%) Current deposits (` cr) 3,194 3,304 (3.3) 2,886 10.7 Saving deposits (` cr) 16,791 16,428 2.2 14,640 14.7 CASA deposits (` cr) 19,985 19,732 1.3 17,526 14.0 CASA ratio (%) 30.5 30.6 (7)bp 30.35 13bp CAR (%) 14.5 14.5 6bp 14.8 (29)bp 3.2 3.4 (15)bp 3.2 (4)bp 50.8 48.9 188bp 49.3 148bp 1,067 1,031 3.5 1,201 (11.2) Profitability Ratios (%) Reported NIM Cost-to-income ratio Asset quality Gross NPAs (` cr) Gross NPAs (%) 2.19 2.1 9bp 2.8 (64)bp Net NPAs (` cr) 333 319 4.5 356 (6.5) Net NPAs (%) Provision Coverage Ratio (%) Slippage ratio (%) 0.7 0.7 3bp 0.9 (17)bp 85.0 85.1 (17)bp 83.3 167bp 2.2 1.6 53bp 1.3 84bp Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: *Basel III Balance sheet growth moderate; NIM fell qoq During 3QFY2015, the bank witnessed a moderate growth in balance sheet of 8% yoy, as its advances grew by 15.3% yoy, while deposits grew by 13.5% yoy. Growth in advance was led by the Agri and SME books, which grew by 26.8% and 17.7% yoy, respectively, while the corporate book growth was moderate at 8.4% yoy. Gold loans were up 18.5% yoy but were down 3.2% qoq, as the Management has turned cautious towards lending in this segment, given the drop in gold prices. As of 3QFY2015, the bank’s total gold loan portfolio stands at `6,634cr (13.8% of total loans). Going forward, the Management has guided at an overall advances growth of 18% for FY2015 with traction in retail and SME segments. Within deposits, the bank witnessed steady growth in CASA deposits at 14% yoy, as savings deposits grew by 14.7% yoy, while current deposits reported an increase of 10.7% yoy. Consequently, the CASA ratio remained steady at 30.5% (as compared to 30.6% in 2QFY2015). January 21, 2015 3 Federal Bank | 3QFY2015 Result Update Exhibit 3: Business growth steady in 3QFY2015 Dep. yoy chg (%) 75.1 15.0 73.3 72.8 74.0 14.8 13.7 (1.5) (5.0) 76.0 (%) 32.0 30.4 30.8 30.8 30.6 30.5 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 30.0 28.0 26.0 9.1 8.5 72.1 3.7 5.0 72.7 5.4 11.9 10.0 CDR (%, RHS) 78.0 15.3 13.5 Adv. yoy chg (% ) 20.0 Exhibit 4: CASA ratio steady yoy 3QFY14 4QFY2014 1QFY15 2QFY15 72.0 24.0 70.0 22.0 68.0 20.0 3QFY15 Source: Company, Angel Research 3QFY14 Source: Company, Angel Research During the quarter, the NIM fell by 15bp to 3.2%. Yield on advances fell by 17bp qoq to 11.61%. However, had interest on income tax refund of `27cr in 2QFY2015 been adjusted, the NIM would have remained stable qoq at 3.2%. The Management expects NIM to be around 3.2-3.3% in FY2015. Exhibit 5: NIM fell by 15bp qoq (%) 3.8 3.59 3.6 3.35 3.4 3.25 3.24 3.2 3.2 3 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 Source: Company, Angel Research Moderate performance in Non-interest income (excluding treasury) During the quarter, the bank’s performance on the non-interest income (excluding treasury) front was moderate, posting a growth of 3%. Trading gains during the quarter came in at `77.5cr as against `18cr in 3QFY2014. On the back of robust treasury income performance, the overall other income for the bank grew by 40.7% yoy. January 21, 2015 4 Federal Bank | 3QFY2015 Result Update Marginal increase in Gross NPA ratio qoq due to higher slippages The Gross NPA ratio for the bank increased by 9bp qoq to 2.19%, mainly on account of slippage of `125cr related to one corporate account. Apart from this account the Management remains watchful on a further `125cr of advances, going ahead. The bank witnessed slippages of `234cr during the quarter, out of which slippages from the retail segment amounted to `30cr and SME segment slippages amounted to `63cr. Recoveries and upgrades, with no sale to ARC, of `198cr in the quarter were lower than slippages. This led to a marginal increase in the Gross NPA ratio by 9bp qoq to 2.19%, while the Net NPA ratio was flat qoq at 0.7%. The bank has restructured advances worth `40.7cr as against `68cr in 2QFY2015, with the outstanding restructured book at `2,427cr. Exhibit 6: Trends in Gross and Net NPA levels Gross NPAs (` cr) Net NPAs (` cr) PCR (%, RHS) 95.0 1,500 1,200 83.3 84.9 84.1 85.1 85.0 90.0 85.0 900 80.0 75.0 1,031 319 1,067 333 1,016 304 1,087 322 1,201 356 600 300 Exhibit 7: Slippages at 2.15% during 3QFY2015 2QFY15 3QFY15 3QFY14 4QFY2014 1QFY15 (%) 2.15 2.20 2.00 1.76 1.80 1.69 70.0 1.40 65.0 1.20 60.0 1.00 1.32 3QFY14 4QFY2014 1QFY15 Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 8: Opex trends Exhibit 9: Opex-to-avg. assets trend Other opex (` cr) 188 165 183 300 51.2 49.3 169 400 48.9 CIR (%, RHS) 50.8 175 Staff exps (` cr) 500 49.0 204 235 47.0 204 201 177 47.7 2QFY15 3QFY15 - 2.03 2.00 Source: Company, Angel Research January 21, 2015 1.90 1.96 1.90 46.0 45.0 3QFY14 4QFY2014 1QFY15 3QFY15 2.08 2.06 51.0 50.0 2QFY15 (%) 2.10 48.0 200 100 52.0 1.62 1.60 1.80 3QFY14 4QFY2014 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 Source: Company, Angel Research 5 Federal Bank | 3QFY2015 Result Update Outlook and valuation Over the last three years, the bank has grown its branch network at a healthy CAGR of 15%, which has not only aided the bank to increase its low cost deposit profile (CASA ratio has reached 30.5% as of 3QFY2015 from 28.2% as of 3QFY2012), but has also laid a platform for building a sustainable retail asset book. After witnessing severe asset quality pressures for the last few years, the bank’s asset quality has shown improvement over the past few quarters (on lower slippages and better recoveries/upgrades). While we remain watchful of the bank’s near term performance on the asset quality front, the stock’s current valuation at 1.5x its FY2016E P/ABV offers limited scope of upside from here on. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Exhibit 10: Recommendation summary CMP (`) Tgt. price (`) Upside (%) FY2016E P/ABV (x) FY2016E Tgt. P/ABV (x) FY2016E P/E (x) FY2014-16E EPS CAGR (%) FY2016E RoA (%) FY2016E RoE (%) 1,022 367 1,077 5.3 4.0 4.3 19.7 21.3 2.0 22.2 429 17.1 2.4 2.9 15.2 19.3 1.7 16.4 Buy 858 998 16.3 2.6 3.0 14.1 16.3 1.7 19.7 AxisBk SBI* Buy 552 643 16.6 2.6 3.0 14.9 18.4 1.9 18.4 Accumulate 318 355 11.6 1.8 1.7 13.3 28.2 0.8 13.8 FedBk Neutral 145 - - 1.5 - 11.9 11.6 1.2 12.9 SIB Accumulate 29 34 14.5 1.0 1.2 8.4 (4.1) 0.7 12.6 BOB Buy 1,087 1,267 16.6 1.1 1.3 8.0 13.8 0.8 13.8 PNB Buy 209 267 27.6 1.0 1.3 6.7 29.6 0.9 14.1 BOI Buy 297 373 25.5 0.7 0.9 4.9 19.7 0.6 13.0 IndBk Buy 211 255 20.7 0.7 0.8 5.7 23.4 0.8 11.2 Vijaya Bank Buy 50 58 16.4 0.7 0.8 5.4 38.9 0.5 12.4 UnionBk Accumulate 240 265 10.2 0.9 1.0 5.9 23.4 0.6 13.2 CanBk Buy 469 548 16.9 0.8 1.0 6.2 19.4 0.6 12.5 IDBI# Accumulate 76 81 7.2 0.5 0.6 5.1 45.7 0.6 10.1 DenaBk Buy 60 77 29.2 0.5 0.7 4.8 10.0 0.5 9.8 Company Reco. HDFCBk Accumulate ICICIBk* Buy YesBk Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP target price/ABV (including subsidiaries); Without adjusting for SASF # January 21, 2015 6 Federal Bank | 3QFY2015 Result Update Income statement Y/E March (` cr) NII - YoY growth (%) Other income - YoY growth (%) Operating income - YoY growth (%) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E 1,411 1,747 1,953 1,975 2,229 2,384 2,714 7.3 23.8 11.8 1.1 12.9 7.0 13.8 531 517 532 664 694 798 791 2.9 (2.7) 3.0 24.8 4.4 15.0 (0.8) 1,942 2,263 2,486 2,639 2,922 3,182 3,506 6.0 16.6 9.8 6.2 10.7 8.9 10.2 Operating expenses 677 836 979 1,180 1,442 1,591 1,790 - YoY growth (%) 18.5 23.5 17.1 20.5 22.3 10.4 12.5 1,265 1,427 1,506 1,460 1,480 1,591 1,715 0.4 12.8 5.6 (3.1) 1.4 7.5 7.8 Pre-prov. profit - YoY growth (%) Prov. & cont. - YoY growth (%) PBT 405 525 337 266 268 100 155 (13.2) 29.6 (35.9) (21.1) 1.0 (62.8) 55.4 860 902 1,170 1,194 1,212 1,491 1,560 - YoY growth (%) 8.4 4.9 29.7 2.1 1.5 23.0 4.6 Prov. for taxation 395 315 393 356 373 492 515 - as a % of PBT 46.0 34.9 33.6 29.8 30.8 33.0 33.0 PAT 465 587 777 838 839 999 1,045 (7.2) 26.4 32.3 7.9 0.1 19.1 4.6 - YoY growth (%) January 21, 2015 FY10 7 Federal Bank | 3QFY2015 Result Update Balance sheet Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E 171 171 171 171 171 171 171 4,519 4,938 5,535 6,194 6,780 7,560 8,367 36,058 43,015 48,937 57,615 59,731 66,899 76,265 12.0 19.3 13.8 17.7 3.7 12.0 14.0 1,227 1,582 3,935 4,957 5,458 4,064 4,617 320 306 306 230 230 224 219 1,380 1,445 1,742 1,883 2,224 2,368 2,693 Total Liabilities 43,676 51,456 60,627 71,050 74,594 81,287 92,330 Cash Balances 2,319 2,935 2,424 2,743 3,104 3,345 3,813 Bank Balances 405 813 1,108 977 1,425 1,626 1,847 Investments 13,055 14,538 17,402 21,155 24,118 24,077 25,659 Advances Other Liab. & Prov. 26,950 31,953 37,756 44,097 43,436 49,517 57,935 - Growth (%) 20.4 18.6 18.2 16.8 -1.5 14.0 17.0 Fixed Assets 290 290 326 397 425 449 495 Other Assets 658 927 1,610 1,681 2,086 2,273 2,582 43,676 51,456 60,627 71,050 74,594 81,287 92,330 12.4 17.8 17.8 17.2 5.0 9.0 13.6 Total Assets - Growth (%) January 21, 2015 FY10 8 Federal Bank | 3QFY2015 Result Update Ratio analysis Y/E March FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 34.9 36.9 39.4 44.7 49.3 50.0 51.1 Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 RoE 10.3 12.0 14.4 13.9 12.6 13.6 12.9 CASA Ratio 26.2 26.9 27.5 27.2 31.2 32.1 32.4 Credit/Deposit Ratio 74.7 74.3 77.2 76.5 72.7 74.0 76.0 CAR 18.4 16.8 16.6 14.7 15.3 15.8 15.5 - Tier I 16.9 15.6 15.9 14.1 14.6 15.1 14.9 Gross NPAs 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.5 1.8 1.5 Net NPAs 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.3 Slippages 3.3 3.2 2.1 2.1 1.2 1.3 1.1 Loan Loss Prov./Avg. Assets 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 84.3 83.4 84.7 72.2 70.4 81.1 79.1 5.4 6.9 9.1 9.8 9.8 11.7 12.2 54.8 59.7 66.7 73.8 80.6 90.3 99.8 5.0 8.5 9.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 26.7 21.1 16.0 14.8 14.8 12.4 11.9 P/ABVPS (x) 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 Dividend Yield 3.4 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.9 7.6 8.3 NII 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 (-) Prov. Exp. 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 Adj. NII 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 Treasury 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 Int. Sens. Inc. 2.7 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.1 Other Inc. 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 Op. Inc. 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.9 Opex 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 PBT 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8 Taxes 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 RoA 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 Leverage (x) 9.2 9.7 10.4 10.9 10.9 10.6 10.7 10.3 12.0 14.4 13.9 12.6 13.6 12.9 B/S ratios (%) Asset Quality (%) Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) DuPont Analysis (%) RoE January 21, 2015 9 Federal Bank | 3QFY2015 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. 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Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement Federal Bank 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors Ratings (Returns): January 21, 2015 Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to -15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) 10
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