El tamaño y crecimiento de la población mundial
POPULATION THEORY Alberto Veira Ramos alberto.veira@uc3m.es (I) ANCIENT THEORIES POPULATION AND THE ENLIGHTMENT THE MARXIST PERSPECTIVE MODERN THEORIES THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION POPULATION STRUCTURE (II) CONTEMPORARY THEORIES CURRENT CONTROVERSIES AND DEBATES HANDBOOK A great deal of the materials presented in this course are from the book of Professor Jesús Javier Sánchez Barricarte “El Crecimiento de la Población Mundial” POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT What is the effect of population growth on economic development? (pessimistic perspectives) Kingsley Davis, A. Coale & Hoover, The World Bank POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT At the World conference on population at Bucharest in 1974 two schools of thought collided: Neoclassic economists In favor of slowing down population growth. Poverty is caused by Rapid Population Growth (RPG) Marxist perspective Demographic growth is independent from economic development The causes of poverty are economic exploitation and political domination Such debate takes place under the context of the Cold War and an unprecedented demographic growth in third world countries Kingsley Davis (1908-1997) Reputed sociologist Helped to establish the department of demography of the University of California at Berkeley. President of the PAA Represented the USA before the UNPC Kingsley Davis (1908-1997) K. Davis popularized the terms: “population explosion” “zero population growth” Stood against sending food to poor countries because it would only make poor populations larger in size and entirely dependent on charity for their subsistence Argued that “excessive reproduction” (more than four children per woman) should be consider “a crime” Kingsley Davis (1908-1997) Argued that rapid population growth (RPG) makes economic development more difficult: High dependency ratios cause by a large infant population deters societies from investing its resources elsewhere High fertility makes difficult for women to enter and stay in the labor market Parents of large families cannot provide their children with adequate clothing, health care and proper education RPG contributes to increase dramatically the number of young people looking for a job, which leads to high youth unemployment and ultimately to political unrest Urbanization will be affected by massive migration from rural areas of high fertility, creating a negative environment for social stability and economic development Kingsley Davis (1908-1997) Proposed several drastic measures to avoid RPG in developing countries: Increase the legal age of marriage Establish a tax for marriage and child bearing Mandatory sterilization after the 5th birth Pay money to those who sterilize voluntarily Governments should pay for abortions Reduce maternity aid Ansley Coale (1917-2002) and Edgar M. Hoover Ansley Coale and Edgar M. Hoover were co-authors of the book: Population Growth and Economic Development in Low-Income Countries (1958) Used data from India and Mexico Provided the theoretical foundations for birth control policies in developing countries financed by the U.S. Government and the United Nations Ansley Coale (1917-2002) and Edgar M. Hoover Economic development requires investment of capital. Capital is the wealth and the goods… …used to produce more goods and increase the existing wealth Not the wealth and goods used for immediate consumption! To escape poverty, growth rate of capital must be higher than demographic growth rate Ansley Coale (1917-2002) and Edgar M. Hoover Populations with high dependency ratios can devote smaller amounts of capital to investment, which is negative for economic development The extraordinary increase of the number of children makes saving more difficult for families and governments Families must spend on food, clothing and school books Governments must spend resources on basics like health care and education for larger number of children Governments have fewer resources to spend on infrastructures such as irrigation systems, roads, energy plants, etc. Otherwise, inadequate nourishment and health care would cause the number and frequency of diseases Ansley Coale (1917-2002) and Edgar M. Hoover Rapid Population Growth (RPG)… Makes unemployment to raise and salaries to go down Contributes to increase the prices of certain goods and services Makes Governments of developing nations more dependent on foreign aid, which leads to increases on national debts, thus widening the gap between developed and developing societies Worsens the economic situation of poor people Increases the probability of social unrest and revolts Ansley Coale (1917-2002) and Edgar M. Hoover When populations grow faster than capital accumulation (investment) they will find themselves trapped inside a Malthusian vicious circle of poverty: Economic growth will make possible to feed more mouths, but not suffice to escape from poverty and misery To escape poverty, capital accumulation must grow faster than population The World Bank The World Bank published in 1984 a study in which it is argued that RPG slows down economic growth: Diverts resources into consumption rather than into more productive investment It complicates making the necessary investments to improve “the quality of the population” Threatens the precarious equilibrium between population and natural resources Makes more difficult the adjustments and transformations that must accompany social and economic changes https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/ 5967/WDR%201984%20-%20English.pdf?sequence=1 The World Bank Link to the full report: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/109 86/5967/WDR%201984%20-%20English.pdf?sequence=1 Page 106 of the report states that: “Experience has shown that as development progresses fertility falls. Yet, because current rates of population growth are so much greater in the developing world than they were at comparable income levels in today's developed countries, many developing countries cannot afford to wait for fertility to decline spontaneously.” The World Bank The world Bank also acknowledges that under certain circumstances a moderate population growth can indeed be beneficial for development It stimulates demand, technological innovation and reduces investment risks A moderate increase on the size of working population along with adequate investments on education can improve the productivity of the working population In countries where population is very sparsely distributed, demographic growth (higher population density) may be beneficial because it makes infrastructure investment more feasible and less risky The World Bank The world Bank study acknowledges that Demographic growth is not the major cause of poverty in Third World countries Many countries have managed to increase their income per capita even under RPG However, The World Bank recommends that Governments in developing countries should indeed implement policies for population control to slow down demographic growth POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT Link to the website of University of Princeton on Population Control https://www.princeton.edu/~achaney/tmve/wiki100k/docs/Populat ion_control.html “Human population control is the practice of artificially altering the rate of growth of a human population” Video Disney 1968 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2DkiceqmzU Population control on media nowadays http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-24303537 Population in the world nowadays http://www.educaplus.org/geografia/mun_piramides.html POPULATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT What is the effect of population growth on the environment? (pessimistic perspectives) Paul y Anne Ehrlich, Lester Brown, Paul Lovelock, Eric Pianka, Garret Harding POPULATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT Human population growth represents a danger for the environment, the planet and humans themselves: Paul and Anne Ehrlich Zero demographic growth The Eco-economy Lester Brown James Lovelock “Gaia” Eric Pianka Eco-economy and Natural Capital The Book of life Garret Hardin The tragedy of the commons The lifeboat theory Paul and Anne Ehrlich Paul Ehrlich (1932-) American entomologist and Professor at Stanford University Funded the organization “Zero Population Growth” (1968) The Population Bomb (1968) Anne H. Ehrlich (1933-), American biologist and Professor at Stanford University The Population Explosion (1990) Paul y Anne Ehrlich In the book “The Population Bomb” (1968), Paul R. Ehrlich affirmed that: The battle to feed all humans is lost: During the 80’s and 90’s hundreds of thousands will starve to death Aid programs will be useful only to delay the catastrophe Human population is spreading all over the planet like a cancer Technological improvements may increase food production for some time but at the price of spoiling the environment The problem can only be solved by decisive policies of population control Changing values to ensure voluntary self-control Tax all products related to child rearing Reward those who agree to sterilize before having a second child Coercive measures are also legitimate Paul y Anne Ehrlich In the book “The demographic explosion” (1990) , Anne Ehrlich considers that the most important challenges humanity faces are: The rapid depletion of the nonrenewable resources of the planet The global deterioration of the environment, which will provoke shortages on drinking water supplies Risk of wars for the access to increasingly scarce resources There is a need to convince reluctant politicians that classic economy must be replaced by “eco-economy” Lester Russell Brown (1934-) American, MS in Agricultural economy Developed the concepts Eco-economy Natural Capital In 1974, along with the Rockefeller Foundation he created the World Watch Institute http://www.worldwatch.org/ Lester Russell Brown (1934-) Free market economy is more efficient than centrally planned economy but it does not account fully for all the costs of producing the goods we want because the consequences of environmental degradation are not contemplated The eco-economy considers fertile lands, forest, fishing banks, etc., as if they were Natural Capital Therefore, degradation for the environment should be regarded as a decapitalization problem, thus, impoverishment Lester Russell Brown (1934-) Lester R. Brown considers that population growth represents a serious problem because it provokes Deforestation of the planet Depletion of fishing banks Rising levels of carbon dioxide Erosion of the soil Scarcity of drinking water Raise of temperatures Extinction of species He supports the diffusion of population control programs Sterilization Family planning He supports the one-child policy of the Chinese government Eric R. Pianka (1939-) American biologist Professor of Zoology at Texas University The American Academy of Sciences named him “Scientist of the year” in 2006 The Book of Life Evolutionary Ecology (1983) Eric R. Pianka (1939-) Humans are destroying “The Book of Life” Humans are destroying the ecological niches and environments even before we had the chance to study them fully Denounces our economic model as anthropocentric and proclaims the value of biodiversity Affirmed that population growth is disastrous for life on Earth because of the pollution we cause “Every time you breath, take a shower or pull the flush, every time you drive your car or buy anything, you are contributing to spoil and contaminate the planet” He supports policies for population control and estimates that up to 90% of human population should be reduced to reach tolerable figures for the planet James E. Lovelock (1919-) English scientist Works for NASA Earth, Gaia, is a living organism All living creatures and also nonliving things are part of that organism “On aggregate, human beings have grown enough in numbers to be regarded as a serious planetary disease” “Gaia suffers Primatemia diseminada, a plague of people” Garrett J. Hardin (1915-2003) American biologist Professor of Human Ecology at California University (Santa Bárbara) Author of The tragedy of the commons (1968) Living within limits (1993) lifeboat theory Garrett J. Hardin (1915-2003) In economics, Adam Smith, developed the concept of the “invisible hand”, the idea that when individuals seek their own self-interest, the general interest is also attained In “The tragedy of the commons” (1968), Hardin explains how a village of cattle owners would function if property of the cattle is private but pastures are of common property and its grass is shared by all the community Free access to resources brings about the ruin for everybody Garrett J. Hardin (1915-2003) In “The tragedy of the commons” (1968), Hardin supports the idea that humans live in a finite world which can give support only to a limited number of people Is it correct to let people decide freely about the number of children they may have? Regarding human reproduction, the “invisible hand” does not work in favor of the common good Garrett J. Hardin (1915-2003) Exploring new ethics for survival: living in a lifeboat (1974) lifeboat ethics (1974) Hardin critisizes sending food and medicines to the third world countries It makes their populations continue growing and therefore violating what he considers the first commandment of modern Ecology: “one shall not exceed the carrying capacity”. Each country should bear the burdens of their own reproductive behavior Hardin estimated the optimal size for human populations on 100 million people Garrett J. Hardin (1915-2003) In “Living within the limits” (1993), Hardin advocates again in favor of his “lifeboat theory”: Planet Earth is like a spaceship or a lifeboat which carries a limited amount of supplies Inside this boat, humans are to be regarded as a burden who are exhausting the supplies Harding does not pay consideration to the fact that humans, thanks to our technology, may indeed be capable of generating new resources or “expand” the size of the boat Garrett J. Hardin (1915-2003) Hardin considers people should not be free to decide how many children to have… … if parents were the only responsible for the consequences… However, nowadays, many societies are engaged on attaining goals like a proper Welfare State, where many costs of having children are transferred from families to the State Garrett J. Hardin (1915-2003) Hardin supported drastic measures to reduce population growth: Limit the number of children a couple may have Sponsor abortion Euthanasia to newborns with severe physical problems Justifies infanticide within its proper historical context He even developed ideas close to Eugenics and Social Darwinism: People who go to university is more intelligent. It would be better to have them having children and not the less clever ones Garrett J. Hardin (1915-2003) Hardin didn’t realize that what was happening was something quite different than what he was fearing: Close to half the population hardly reaches generational replacement. Couples have fewer children because most of the costs will have to be born by themselves with little help from governments However, the future benefits of a child, after becoming an adult, will be profited by the whole society An inconvenient truth (2006) Authors: Davis Guggenheim(1963-) Al Gore (1938-) Vice President of the United States (1993-2001) Main ideas Create awareness of the consequences of climate change Argue climate change is caused by human activity Albert Gore awards Prize Prince of Asturias for International cooperation (2007) Nobel Prize (2007), shared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of United Nations http://www.ipcc.ch/ An inconvenient truth (2006) One study from the Nielsen Company Oxford University about the impact of the documentary conducted in 47 countries in 2007 revealed that: 66% of viewers admitted their view on climate warming had changed 89% declared to be more concerned about the importance of the problem 74% declared have changed some of their habits after having watched the documentary POPULATION CONTROL AND POLITICS Many institutions have been in favor of the implementation of population control policies United Nations The World Bank Private Foundations National governments (USA, China, amongst others) POPULATION CONTROL AND POLITICS UNFPA http://www.unfpa.org/public/home Funded in 1969, a year after “The Population Bomb” was published Amongst its tasks there was the coordination of efforts to slow down population growth It backed China’s one child policy and sponsored Vietnam’s 2 child only policy Gets funding from various private foundations which are in favor of slowing down demographic growth UNICEF http://www.unicef.org/ On 1966 there was a big conflict between members of the directive board who disagreed on weather this organization should sponsor or not policies for population control UNESCO http://en.unesco.org/ Its first director was Julian Sorell Huxley, a member of the British Eugenics Society, who favored policies for population control POPULATION CONTROL AND POLITICS Julian Sorell Huxley: "…unless [civilised societies] invent and enforce adequate measures for regulating human reproduction, for controlling the quantity of population, and at least preventing the deterioration of quality of racial stock, they are doomed to decay…“ (Huxley, Julian. 1926. Essays in Popular Science. London: Chatto & Windus, ix.) Opposed Catholic and Communist views on population control In “The Crowded World” he predicted 6 billion people for 2.000 and warned consequences could be catastrophic POPULATION CONTROL AND POLITICS The World Bank On numerous occasions the help provided by this institution was given under the condition that receiving governments should implement policies of population control Several of its presidents had quite strong views on this matter Robert McNamara: Rapid population growth is a major obstacle for economic growth and for wellbeing amongst members […] Demographic control is an area where The World Bank must take initiatives Alden Clausen: Some countries will not be able to develop if they do not stop soon their demographic growth Baber Conable: It is imperative that developing countries renew their efforts to stop demographic growth POPULATION CONTROL AND POLITICS The U.S. Government President Eisenhower appointed an expert group chaired by David Rockefeller to evaluate the prospects for the expansion of American Industry (1952): RPG could be a threat for American interests because deprives America from the access to necessary resources and increases the chances of revolutions President Nixon appointed Henry Kissinger, chair of the NSA, to create a report on how population growth could affect American interests (1970): The “Kissinger Report” alerted about massive migration to cities and developed countries and increasing social unrest which may turn into support of revolutionary movements A more populated third world may limit the access of America to its resources Favored the implementation of policies for population control (“family planning”) International Aid Act (1978) International aid should go to nations that agree on implementing policies for population control President Ronald Reagan Influenced by the work of Julian Simon, he changed the American policy on population control POPULATION CONTROL AND POLITICS Numerous foundations and private organizations active in favor of population control are funded by very rich and influential people Ford, Rockefeller, Airlie, Kellog, General Service, Andrew Mellon, Sunnen, Tinker, John D. y Catherine T. MacArthur, Public Welfare, William y Flora Hewlett, David y Lucile Packard, Bergstrom, Bill y Melinda Gates… The Rockefeller foundation finances the department of Demography of Princeton University where Kingsley Davis, Frank Notestein and Ansley J. Coale carried out their academic activity Rockefeller III finances The Population Council, which publishes The Ford Foundation financed the publication of “Studies in Family Planning” “Population and Development Review” “Demography” The USAID financed the journal “International Family Planning Perspectives” POPULATION CONTROL AND POLITICS The demographer Susan C. Watkins pointed out that many scientific articles published on the journal “Demography” during the second half of the 1960’s are “obsessively” oriented to assert the idea that is was imperative to slow population growth in the third world EUGENICS Francis Galton (1822-1911) founding father of eugenics Eugenic selection vs natural selection What mother nature does blindly, humans can do consciously Positive eugenics Preserve genetic legacy of superior individuals Ban mixed marriages Stimulate their reproduction Negative eugenics Prevent inferior individuals from reproducing Prevent migration Sterilization EUGENICS Eugenics became very popular among elites of American Society James J. Hill (Railroad magnate) John D. Rockefeller (Oil magnate) Andrew Carnegie (Steel magnate) Margaret Sanger (Founder of IPPF, International Planned Parenthood Foundation) American Weekly Magazine (1934) Couples should need maternity permit from governments Permits will be granted if couples have adequate economic resources and had no hereditary diseases No permits should be issued to have more than one child The retarded, criminals and those having had hereditary diseases should be sterilized Eugenics in Europe Germany: during the 1930’s about 320.000 people were sterilized Between 1934 and 1975 up to 63.000 and 48.000 people were sterilized in Sweden and Norway (mostly women) POLICIES ON BIRTH CONTROL India Since 1959 compensations are offered to those who agree to be sterilized In 1975, the Indira Gandhi Government decreed a temporary “emergency” suspension of certain civil rights to force more sterilizations including measures such as: Obligatory sterilization of couples with at least 4 children A certificate of sterilization is required for certain government permits, credits or subsides to buy fertilizers for the land Schooling for children whose parents have more than 3 children is denied Housing provisions were approved for those who accept being sterilized Illiterate people were sterilized without knowing about it after visiting the local HMO Because of these aggressive policies, increasing numbers of Indians stopped going to clinics and health care centers. Finally, due to numerous revolts against birth control policies, the government fell in 1977 POLICIES ON BIRTH CONTROL India The new government continued sponsoring birth control policies but restricting them to women who voluntarily accept it Individual incentives for doctors who convince people to be sterilized Collective incentives to convince communities (villages) to accept sterilization in exchange for some public works Extensive use of not entirely safe methods of sterilization (mainly on women) such as: Net-En, Norplant (58% of women suffered severe secondary effects: thrombosis, hepatitis, arthritis and in some regions implanted only on Muslim women) Quinacrine, declared illegal by WHO All these policies had the support of international institutions The World Bank financed the Norplant campaign The IFFH (International Federation of Family Health) financed the Quinacrine The IPPF (International Planned Parenthood Federation) Western Governments required as a condition for sending food aid the implementation of birth control policies POLICIES ON BIRTH CONTROL Bangladesh: Norplant implanted on women in exchange for cereals and a dress Vietnam: The Two Child Policy Parents who have more than 2 children: Are obliged to pay for health care and education of the 3rd child Are expulsed from the Communist Party May have their land confiscated or obliged to abort Philippines: The 1995 (Bh-GC) hormone scandal The Supreme Court, declared proved that this vaccine against tetanus contained one hormone that caused abortions and sterilization The campaign was sponsored by UNICEF and denounced by the Philippine League of Catholic Women Further investigation proved that the vaccination campaign had already reached 3 million women in the Philippines and had also been administrated in at least other 4 countries POLICIES ON BIRTH CONTROL Peru In 1995 the Fujimmori Government developed a campaign for sterilization partly funded by USAID and UNFPA In 2002, after leaving power, it was known that 90% of people sterilized were not told about the irreversibility of the operation Puerto Rico Sterilization of one third of fertile women thanks to the support of the IPPF. Most women did not know the operation was irreversible Colombia Sterilization of women thanks to the support of the IPPF. Most women did not know the operation was irreversible Mexico Indigenous communities accept sterilization in exchange for public works, housing, clothing, or health care centers Promised were not always kept POLICIES ON BIRTH CONTROL China: The One Child Policy After the 1949 revolution Mao Zhedong opposed population control policies: “Of all things of this world, people are the most valuable […] Under the leadership of the Communist Party, any miracle can become real” In 1953, Party officials were alarmed because of the difficulties to feed all the population In 1956, a year of bad crops, Mao urged officials from highly dense populated areas to develop policies for birth control The idea that fertility is not to be regarded as something that should be kept on the private domain but rather as a matter of concern for the State began to take shape In 1979 the “one child policy” was adopted POLICIES ON BIRTH CONTROL POLICIES ON BIRTH CONTROL China: legal reforms favoring birth control Chinese Constitution: All married couples are obliged to abide to birth control policies It is illegal to have children if the woman is not married Legal age of marriage is established at 22 for men and 20 for women Obligatory sterilization for couples who at the moment had had already two or more children Women who had already one child should implant a IUD Couples with a record of any hereditary disease are forbidden to have children Civil servants are to conduct regular pregnancy tests on all married women POLICIES ON BIRTH CONTROL China: sanctions against those not abiding the laws on birth control Lose the job or possibility of promotion Expulsion from the Communist Party Administrative sanctions, fines Single mothers must pay fines up to ten times the salary of one year Those who can’t pay the fines will have their properties confiscated (land, cattle, flat…) Forced abortions and sterilizations POLICIES ON BIRTH CONTROL Some international organizations have denounced such practices Human Rights Watch International Amnesty Freedom House The Chinese Government has always stick firmly to the idea that: “Only coercive measures can be effective to alleviate the problems caused by the demographic explosion” Economic Daily January 24th 1989, quoting a senior government official from the Ministry of Agriculture UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF BIRTH CONTROL POLICIES Patriarchal values… Traditional preference for a male son, particularly in Asia In India it is the son the responsible for lighting the funerary pile of the parents and pray for their souls In societies were women are discriminated, sons are more likely to reach a position (income level, land property) from which they can help their parents during old age The dowry can be a burden for low-income families In certain cultures, the daughter is considered as member of the husband’s family after marriage …and aggressive birth control policies may lead to female infanticide and feticide UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF BIRTH CONTROL POLICIES A biologically normal sex ratio is one of 105 to 107 men per 100 women at birth Higher values indicate a bias against women UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF BIRTH CONTROL POLICIES UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF BIRTH CONTROL POLICIES Sex Ratio at birth in India 1981-83 1984-86 1987-89 1990-92 1993-95 1996-98 108,9 109,6 109,9 111,1 113,8 111,0 Fuente: Hudson y Boer, 2004: 108-109 UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF BIRTH CONTROL POLICIES Number of missing women in the world: Amartya Sen estimated about 100 millions The United Nations have calculated 200 millions The 3 main methods provoking this imbalance: Active infanticide: killing the newborn Passive infanticide: neglecting proper care to the new born (clothing, food, etc.) Female feticide: selective abortions of fetuses of female sex A small equipment and blood sample from a pregnant mother allow doctors to know the sex of the baby after six months of pregnancy This “service” is being widely used as a mean to prevent a baby girl from being born in many countries One study conducted in Bombay in 1984 showed that out of 8.000 abortions, 7.999 were of baby girls UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF BIRTH CONTROL POLICIES Number of “missing women” in various Asian countries País Año Afganistán Bangladés China India Pakistán Corea del Sur Taiwán Total 2000 2001 2000 2001 1998 2000 2000 Fuente: Hundson y Boer, 2004: 62 Mujeres que faltan números absolutos 1.108.266 2.700.028 40.617.103 39.284.065 5.983.526 151.073 448.512 90.292.573 % sobre el total de mujeres desaparecidas 1,2 3,0 45,0 43,5 6,6 0,2 0,5 % sobre el total de mujeres estimadas de cada país 9,5 4,1 6,2 7,3 8,6 0,7 3,9 UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF BIRTH CONTROL POLICIES Consequences of the sex ration unbalance In patriarchal societies, when women are scarce, men tend to control them even more Illegal market of women and girls Between 1991 and 1996 the Chinese Police freed up to 88.000 women and girls who had been kidnaped Increase on suicide rates among women (number of suicides per 100.000 people) Spain 3,9 for women and 12,6 for men India 9,1 for women and 12,2 for men China 14,8 for women and 13 for men Countries with a high sex ration unbalance in favor of men tend to have higher levels of prostitution Female infanticide and feticide become a widespread practice The Dying Rooms (1995) Documentary on Chinese Orphan houses Author: Channel 4 (UK) http://www.youtube.co m/watch?v=zd_nptd2q0 M POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT What is the effect of population growth on economic development? (optimistic perspectives) Simon Kuznets, Ester Boserup, The French School of Demography, The Chicago School of Economics, F. von Hayek Simon Kuznets (1901-1985) Born in Pinsk (Belarus) Studied in Kharkiv (Ukraine) In 1922 migrated to the US and got a PhD at Columbia University in 1926 Nobel Prize in Economics in 1971 Simon Kuznets (1901-1985) Kuznets analyzed statistical data from second half of the 18th century until the turn of the 20th century He reached the conclusion that there was not a single case where an increase on population growth had led to a decrease on income per capita Kuznets found demographic growth to be associated with economic development Simon Kuznets (1901-1985) I) Demographic growth is caused by sustained drop of mortality (notably infant mortality) This reduces the efforts and resources wasted on rearing children who will not make it to adulthood It freed women from childbearing and rearing tasks, allowing them to participate more actively on the labor market Morbidity rates also decreased and life expectancy increased, which contributed to make individuals more productive over their lifetime Simon Kuznets (1901-1985) II) Income per capita is higher in growing populations Growing populations can spread over formerly inhabited areas and exploit its resources (Russia, America) Growing populations are more mobile than stationary populations, which makes the economy more dynamic Growing populations develop a more intense division of labor Young people tend to be more receptive to the consumption of new products and services Young people have a stronger tendency to search for jobs in newly developed occupational niches The larger the proportion of young people in the society, the faster those new economic niches and sectors will develop Younger cohorts of workers tend to be more productive Internal markets/demand develop faster allowing business to benefit from “economies of scale” Simon Kuznets (1901-1985) III) The most important factor for increasing production (income) per capita is knowledge, applied knowledge, useful practical knowledge which is developed by scientists, inventors, engineers and entrepreneurs Everything else equal, in growing populations there will be more geniuses and scientists and other talented people Creativity flourishes in intellectually dense atmospheres Simon Kuznets (1901-1985) IV) Demographic growth stimulates savings and capital accumulation (contrary to Coale and Hoover’s belief!) a) Children are an incentive for hard work and saving Savings accumulated by a household with many children do NOT need to be smaller than those generated by a small household. A couple with fewer children may simply spend more on other commodities b) Aggregate savings tend to be higher in growing populations A growing working population will generate larger amounts of aggregate savings and the ratio of working people to pensioners will be higher Simon Kuznets (1901-1985) Societies open to immigration often… …have faith on future …trust they can integrate migrants into the labor market Having children is also a sign of confidence and optimism A society with a stagnant population reveals lack of optimism and faith on a prosperous future There is no reason to believe that a larger population will not be capable of attaining what smaller populations achieved in the past Populations may grow and increase production (income) not only to satisfy the needs of population surpluses but also may increase production (income) per capita Uwaga!: Populations may grow even if birth rates decrease! Ester Boserup (1910-1999) Born in Copenhagen Expert on agricultural economy Studies the varieties of agricultural production in developing societies Refutes Malthus thesis Ester Boserup (1910-1999) Author of 3 fundamental works: The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure (1965) Women's Role in Economic Development (1970, 1997) Population and Technological Change: A Study of Long-Term Trends (1981) Ester Boserup (1910-1999) The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure (1965): Agricultural production does NOT set the limits for population growth Agricultural production is the result of innovations triggered by population pressure Demographic growth forces farmers to: Abandon traditional forms of agriculture (extensive and low productive) Adopt new more intensive and productive techniques Ancient Rome 10.000m2 of farm land per person-year Nowadays 1.000m2 Ester Boserup (1910-1999) The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure (1965): Higher population density favors deeper division of labor and allow financing collective works and investments that otherwise would be unprofitable (irrigation, transport) Better infrastructure (thanks to larger population) makes the use of newer technologies more feasible Historically, a major factor against population growth in developing nations had been the colonial agricultural system imposed by the Europeans to native populations Java: 4 million people in 1.800 30 million people in 1.900; 132 million people in 2.010 Ejemplos de cultivo coloniales http://users.skynet.be/network.indonesia/ni4001c9 a.htm http://www.mongabay.com/history/indonesia/indo nesia-the_java_war_and_cultivation_system.html Ester Boserup (1910-1999) Population and Technological Change: A Study of Long-Term Trends (1981) Some technological improvements were found by chance but most are due to years (if not centuries) of research and experience Demographic pressure had a major impact on discovery and transmission of technological improvements “Necessity is the mother of innovation” Many societies did not develop because of lack of motivation Regulated population growth instead of developing innovations Population density remained low Continued using primitive techniques Ester Boserup (1910-1999) Women's Role in Economic Development (1970) Population growth is more problematic when half of the society is marginalized to a subordinate position Societies were women’s talent is exploited are more likely to produce more technological advances and innovations Participation of women on decision making processes have extremely positive effects on agricultural production Micro-credits policy in India Grameen Bank, Nobel Prize 2006 http://www.grameen-info.org/ http://infochangeindia.org/livelihoods/microfinance/microcredit-background-a-perspective.html http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11669393 The French School of Demography Alfred Sauvy (1898-1990): First Deputy Director of the Institut national d’ études démographiques of Paris: www.ined.fr Author of “Croissance zéro?” (1973) The French School of Demography Alfred Sauvy (1898-1990): Author of a study on the budget of the French Government in 1939 which supported Landry’s thesis regarding the financing of basic infrastructures: Only 20% of expenditures vary according to population The remaining 80% were fixed expenditures More population means more taxpayers to share the burdens derived from the maintenance of basic infrastructures (fixed costs) Delegate of the French Government at the first UN sponsored World Conference on Population (Rome 1954) France pioneered the demographic transition (lowering of mortality and fertility rates) but its industrialization was slower than that of other nations like Britain and Germany The cause may have been the lack of demographic pressure Reduction of fertility and population growth are NOT the key elements to economic and industrial development! The French School of Demography Alfred Sauvy (1898-1990): Author of “Croissance zéro?” (1973) It is imperative not to confuse overpopulation with underdevelopment: the existence of many poor does not mean there is too many people A growing population has better chances of development than a stagnant population (thanks to generational replacement process) An abrupt reduction on fertility may have negative consequences: Fast demographic ageing Larger fractions of old people may lead to “decadent conservatism” The ideal context is that of a moderate growth Historically, periods of major social an economic development have coincide with remarkable increases on population Demographic downsizing has never brought positive rewards The French School of Demography Alfred Sauvy (1898-1990): Mathematical models emphasize the relative advantages of population decrease but do not take into consideration the “human factor”, the human reaction in face of adversity The contribution of a person during the adult life to the general wealth is much greater that what is consumed during childhood or old age It is a mistake to think that reducing the number of people contributes to reduce poverty Fewer births today means fewer researchers and entrepreneurs tomorrow Fewer births today mean smaller young cohorts tomorrow The French School of Demography Jean-Claude Chesnais (1948-) Disciple of Alfred Sauvy Senior researcher at the Institut national d’ études démographiques of Paris: www.ined.fr The French School of Demography Jean-Claude Chesnais (1948-): Between 1950 and 1980 the exceptional demographic growth in the third world has come along by an even stronger economic growth Population growth rate: 2.5 yearly Economic growth rate: 5% yearly Cases where and when poverty increased are not caused by population growth but by wars corruption and blatant misuse of public funds Demographic growth stimulates investment on infrastructures, sustainable only under a certain population density and expands internal markets Increased life expectancy increases propensity to save money Economic and demographic growth are consequences of the same modernization process (technical and institutional) The French School of Demography Gérard-François Dumont (1948-) Professor at the Sorbonne University of Paris Demographer and disciple of Alfred Sauvy Developer of the concept “Demographic Winter” The French School of Demography Gérard-François Dumont (1948-) Famines and poverty are not caused by overpopulation but by wars, corruption and misguided policies Demographic winter is the persistent reduction of fertility levels below replacement rates which is taking place in many OECD countries Migratory flows are not sufficient to compensate the loss of the “unborn population” Websites on the topic http://www.demographicbomb.com/ http://www.theneweconomicreality.com/ The Chicago School of Economics Theodore William Schultz Gary Stanley Becker The Chicago School of Economics One of the most reputed school of economics in the United States Up to nine Nobel Prize laureates have develop their careers at its Department Theodore W. Schultz (1902-1998) Nobel Prize in 1979 Gary S. Becker (1930-) Nobel Prize in 1992 The Chicago School of Economics The Chicago School of Economics pioneered the development of the concept of human capital Resources devoted to health care and education should not be regarded as expenditures but as investments Investment on human capital is indeed more crucial for economic development than mere accumulation of physical capital because… Helps technological innovation Increases worker’s productivity Prevents from falling into the traps of “diminishing returns” and the “dissolution of physical capital” The Chicago School of Economics However, Becker warns that human capital development is not enough. It is equally important to develop adequate institutional arrangements: Free market, flexible price system Freedom to choose one’s education and occupation The best instrument the UN has to offer to developing economies are wise economic advise (not expensive and useless birth control policies) The “population bomb” will be effectively defused by promoting free market and investment on education Economic development and female access to education and the labor market are, indeed, the most effective contraceptives Friedrich August von Hayek (1899-1992) Born in Wien Nobel Prize on Economics in 1974 Most notorious representative of the Austrian School of Economics Author of The Road to Serfdom (1944) The fatal conceit: The errors of socialism (1988) Friedrich August von Hayek (1899-1992) In The fatal conceit: The errors of socialism (1988) Hayek devoted one chapter to demographic growth Malthusianism is obsolete Demographic growth favors diversification and specialization of human activities A larger population is also a more diverse society Demographic growth is a condition for progress The survival of our civilization depends on capitalism and demographic growth If population was reduced to …. It would be impossible to sustain our current technological development even if knowledge was available in libraries (lack of human resources to implement them) Only the capitalist system can attain the production levels that are required to satisfy the demands of the world’s current population Hans Rosling “The Overpopulation Myth” by professor Hans Rosling https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eA5BM7CE5-8 Other videos made by professor Hans Rosling https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTznEIZRkLg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm5xF-UYgdg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUwS1uAdUcI Amartya K. Sen (1933-) Born in India Professor on Population and Development at Harvard University Nobel Prize on Economics in 1998 Collaborated on the design of the Human Development Index for the UN Author of Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation (1981) Amartya K. Sen (1933-) The demographic transition that lasted two centuries in Europe may be shorter in developing nations if the adequate policies are implemented Favors investments on health care and education Economic development (and reduction of mortality) will slow down “naturally” the population growth With few resources major achievements can be accomplished: like improving female education Not necessary to reach the same level of income per capita as in Europe to start lowering fertility rates There was big variation within Europe itself on income per capita when birth rates declined Opposes birth control policies Limits individual freedom and leads to infanticide and feticide More Than 100 Million Women Are Missing Developing populations need more freedom, not less Amartya K. Sen (1933-) Favors slowing down rapid population growth (RPG) in developing countries Limit growth of overcrowded cities in developing countries Reduce pressure on the environment Free women to get higher education and participation in the labor market Disagrees with Neo-Malthusian perspective Food production has increased at higher rates than population growth, most particularly in the more populated countries Famines are caused by reasons other than population growth Dictatorships, Corruption, Wars and Colonial occupation The best instrument against famines is democracy and free press Protect the right of the poor to access the food market Avoid political instability (panic buying) and overpricing of food (urban development may harm rural communities) Major famines of the 20th century Rusia (1920) Régimen de comunismo de guerra impuesto a la población de la región del Volga-Urales: 5 millones de muertos China (1928-30) Sequía en las provincias del norte: 3 millones de muertos U.R.S.S. (1930-33) Jósef Stalin: entre 8 y 10 millones de muertos Bengala (1943) Colonia británica: entre 2 y 7 millones de muertos Vietnam (1945) Ocupación japonesa: 2 millones de muertos China (1959-62) Mao-Tsé-Tung: 30 millones de muertos Camboya (1975-79) Pol Pot: 2 millones de muertos Etiopía (1983-85) Haile Mengistu: 1 millón de muertos Corea del Norte (1996) Kim il Jong: De 600.000 a 3 millones de muertos Prices of wheat, maize and rice Prices of agricultural goods Food consumption per capita Undernourishment Tabla 5.2 Incidencia de la desnutrición en diversas regiones del mundo. Número de personas desnutridas (millones) Grupos de países Regiones en desarrollo África del norte África subsahariana América Latina y Caribe Asia oriental Asia del sur Asia sudoriental Asia occidental Oceanía 1969-1971 1979-1981 963,7 19,3 95 55,3 392,7 277,2 111,6 11,6 0,9 1990-1992 927 7,4 129,5 46,2 309,1 336,4 91,6 6,1 0,8 Prevalencia de la desnutrición en la población mundial total (%) Grupos de países 1969-1971 1979-1981 Regiones en desarrollo África del norte África subsahariana América Latina y Caribe Asia oriental Asia del sur Asia sudoriental Asia occidental Oceanía 37 27 33 20 45 37 39 16 24 1995-1997 826,6 5,4 171,9 59,5 198,7 301,4 80,1 8,7 0,9 1990-1992 28 8 34 13 29 36 26 6 16 2002-2004 801,3 5,7 200,2 54,7 154,8 302,6 68,1 14,3 0,9 1995-1997 20 4 33 13 16 25 18 6 15 834 5,9 216,4 52,2 162,9 314,3 64 17,3 1 2002-2004 18 4 34 11 12 23 14 9 14 17 4 31 10 12 21 12 9 12 Fuente: "Estadísticas sobre Seguridad Alimentaria", FAO, última actualización 30/06/2006, en http://www.fao.org/es/es POPULATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT What is the effect of population growth on the environment? (optimistic perspectives) Julian Simon, Singer, Bjorn Lomborg Julian L. Simon (1932-1998) Professor of Economics at Maryland University Author of: The ultimate resource (1981) The State of Humanity (1995) At the World Population Conference in 1984 the US Government adopted positions derived from Simon’s views Julian L. Simon (1932-1998) I) Population growth increases the reserves of capital II) Population growth increases returns from capital III) Population growth increases productivity and increases wealth IV) Population growth, education and technological development V) The supply of natural resources is unlimited VI) Population and economic growth reduce pollution Julian L. Simon (1932-1998) V) The supply of natural resources is unlimited We must think about the services they provide and the returns we are able to obtain from them New techniques to find them in formerly inaccessible areas Recycling Find and develop new substitutes Resources should not be saved for future generations Price evolution is a way to assess how scarce a given resource has become Salaries have increased more than resources’ prices Humans are the only scarce element: “The Ultimate Resource” Prices of aluminum and lead Prices of iron and primary commodities Evolution of real prices of natural resources, 1900-2008 (not energy) Julian L. Simon (1932-1998) VI) Population and economic growth reduces pollution Pollution creates unrest and triggers social demand for a better environment Higher salaries and GDP allow for expenditures on cleaning the environment “Kuznets curve” applied to economic development and pollution Wealthier and technologically advanced societies have better means and more resources to care for the environment Adequate institutional settings must be arranged Democracy and individual freedom (individual incentives instead of collective incentives) Free market Freedom of the press Population growth and pollution become major problems mainly under non-democratic regimes Economic development causes more or less pollution? Environmental Performance Index Developed by Yale University http://epi.yale.edu/ Environmental Performance Index Environmental Performance Index Environmental Performance Index J.O. Kaplan et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews 28 (2009) 3016–3034 Deforestation in preindustrial Europe Humans have transformed Europe’s landscapes since the establishment of the first agricultural societies in the mid-Holocene. The most important anthropogenic alteration of the natural environment was the clearing of forests to establish cropland and pasture, and the exploitation of forests for fuel wood and construction materials Recent forest surface evolution 1200 1000 800 600 1990 400 2000 2010 200 0 Africa Asia Europe North Oceania South and America Central America Siegfried Frederick Singer (1924-) Austrian expert on the atmosphere Founding Deputy Director of the national Service of Meteorological Satellites in the US Author of: Hot talk, cold science (1999) Unstoppable global warming every 1.500 years (2007) Siegfried Frederick Singer (1924-) “Human activities do not influence global climate significantly” There are other major factors: Volcanic eruptions Impact of asteroids Complex interactions between oceans and the atmosphere Most CO2 found in the atmosphere comes from water evaporation from oceans Changes in the Sun Fluctuations in solar radiation Variations of “solar wind” Bjørn Lomborg (1965-) Director of the Environmental Assessment Institute at Copenhagen Author of: The skeptical environmentalist (2001) Cool it (2007) Bjørn Lomborg (1965-) Accepts the idea that humans are causing Global Warming but believe that Global Warming is NOT the most important environmental threat Considers that a serious cost-benefit analysis is needed: There are better ways to fight Global Warming than implementing the Kioto protocol Lomborg discards that temperatures will rise as much as forecasted by models based on man-made global warming theories over the next century He suggests to invest resources on technological development for the long term rather than spending money trying to fix in a decade what is already unavoidable but not so dramatic (man-made global warming) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H79-s2fOLh4 The Global Warming Swindle (2007) Authors: Martin Durkin (1962-) Channel 4 (United Kingdom) Main ideas Global Warming is not caused by human activity (CO2 emissions) but by the Sun and other factors Historically CO2 levels have risen after temperatures did so, not other way around PRACTICAL EXERCISE What are the main arguments in favor of the Man- Made Global Warming theory? Cite some of the criticisms this theory has received? What is the role of population on the Global Warming Controversy? Comment based on the materials discussed in class or using other sources of information you may find by yourself Other videos related to climate change IGBP video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_EWOrZQ3L-c NASA video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ab6jV4VBWZE MOHC video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a7kZhMe0RCY Dr. Don Easterbrook before the American Senate Committee on Energy & Environment https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LkMweOVOOI http://myweb.wwu.edu/dbunny/climate/publicationsclimate.html
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