INTERMEDIATE MACROECONOMICS Semester SPRING 2015 Class code ECON-UA 9012-001 Instructor Details Stephen Hannah stephen.hannah@nyu.edu Office hours: By appointment (https://stephenhannah.youcanbook.me/) on class days between 5-6pm either in our teaching room (if available) or room 302. Class Details Intermediate Macroeconomics Class meeting time Tuesdays 14.00-17.00 hrs Location: Room 202 Prerequisites ECON-UA 1, ECON-UA 2, and either MATH-UA 17 or MATH-UA 121 During the course, students will be expected to download and examine data sets (primarily from official websites) and be familiar with elementary features of Excel. Advanced econometric or statistical knowledge is not required. Class Description Why did the global economy find itself on the edge of a precipice in 2008, why did free markets fail so spectacularly, how well did governments and central banks cope, are we out of the woods? This course seeks to equip students with the basic analytical and practical skills necessary to begin answering such fundamental questions. As an academic discipline, Macroeconomics has been heavily criticised in recent years: for not predicting the 2007-onwards credit crunch; for using simplistic, out-of-date models; for ignoring data that challenged stylised theories; and for failing to acknowledge that economic theory has little to offer without a clear, socio-political and historical context. Our principal objective is to counter some of these criticisms, not by reinventing the wheel but rather by introducing key contemporary issues and seeing what insights we can gain by applying relevant and appropriate macro analysis. A core objective of this course is to show that Macroeconomics, carefully and intelligently deployed, can offer helpful insights for addressing society’s key challenges in the 21st century. The weekly classes will last three hours and include a short break. The teaching method will primarily involve lectures, general discussion, problem solving and, occasionally, student presentations and reviews of homework/assessments. The session-by-session guide provides an overview of the topics that are likely to be covered although there may be minor additions/exclusions depending on the available time and other circumstances. Lecture notes, exercises, spreadsheets and additional material will be made available either in the relevant classes or, more usually, via NYU Classes. Students are expected to ask questions, provide feedback and participate fully in general discussion. The lectures can only identify the main points to focus on and are not designed to provide a comprehensive, self-contained coverage of everything the student needs to know in order to fulfil course requirements. Partly, this reflects time constraints. More importantly, it is intended to underline that a substantial part of students’ learning will come through their own efforts: * reading outside the class; applying ideas to contemporary issues, whether or not they have been identified within the formal syllabus; * careful, systematic and thorough note-taking; active discussion and participation with class members; * timely and assiduous completion of assessment requirements and any other (non-graded) exercises Page 1 of 5 Desired Outcomes Assessment Components • A sound, thorough understanding of key macroeconomic models and techniques, embracing both global and historical perspectives. • An ability to apply theoretical models to contemporary macroeconomic policy problems and debates, recognising the roles of global interdependency and expectations. • Acquire insights into key policy options: the use of fiscal and monetary instruments, alternative exchange rate regimes and supply-side management. An ability to present macroeconomic models and associated policy options concisely, clearly and methodically using equations and diagrams as appropriate • Assess competing models and policy options in a critical fashion, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of the underlying theories (including the key assumptions made) and their empirical relevance. Mid-term assessment 1 (25%): In-class 1hr test; taken in session 5 covering material in sessions 1-4. Typically a mixture of numerical problems, definitions and comments in a 6 page booklet. Mid-term assessment 2 (25%): In-class 1hr test; taken in session 11 covering material in sessions 5-10. Typically a mixture of numerical problems, definitions and comments in a 6 page booklet. Final examination (35%): 2hrs duration. Short questions and essays grouped into three sections, primarily covering material in sessions 11-14. Combined Q&A material typically fills 10-12 pages. Miscellaneous exercises (15%): This component Includes the submission of written homework assignments, group presentations and class participation. Failure to submit or fulfil any required course component results in failure of the class. The structure of assessments and expectations regarding student work are fully articulated in NYU Classes. Assessment Expectations Required Text Supplemental Texts(s) (not required to purchase as copies are in NYU-L Library) Page 2 of 5 Grade A: Consistently rigorous and cogent analysis that clearly and directly answers the questions assigned. The student shows evidence of comprehensive knowledge of course material and an ability to apply theory to a critical analysis of policy options and contemporary issues. Reading is shown to have extended beyond requirements and the student displays historical and global perspective, independent thought and originality of expression. Grade B: Consistently accurate and clear reproduction of key theories and ideas, employing, where appropriate, correct diagrammatic techniques and mathematical analysis. Answers to questions show some evidence of maturity and depth of thought in several areas. The answers are generally direct, relevant, well-structured and clear. Knowledge and technical competence appear broadly-based. Grade C: Students show a reasonable, if patchy, grasp of key theories and their application. The answers are competent but sketchy in parts suggesting a broad-brush rather than in-depth understanding in significant areas. References to academic and other sources are limited and there are signs that the student has failed to understand the subtleties of more advanced topics. Grade D: Students exhibit limited analytical capabilities. Several significant gaps in understanding are evident although reasonable efforts appear to have been made in keeping up with the required reading and exercises. Grade F: Work is consistently poor and shows a lack of understanding of key concepts. Students display a broadly-based failure to express arguments logically and clearly. There is little evidence that the student has made appropriate efforts to keep up with reading and exercises nd Jones, C. (2011) Macroeconomics, (2 ed, ISE), WW Norton, ISBN 978-0-393-11828-5 (this is not the latest edition but much cheaper and more than adequate for our purposes; web links to more recent material will be provided via the course website). nd Blanchard, Amighini, and Giavazzi, D. (2013) Macroeconomics: A European Perspective (2 ed), Pearson, ISBN 978-0-273- 77168-5 th Burda and Wyplosz (2012) Macroeconomics, (6 ed), OUP, ISBN 978-0-19-960864-5 th Mankiw, N. Gregory (2012) Macroeconomics (8 ed), Worth Publishers, ISBN 978-1-464-12167-8 rd Miles, Scott and Breedon (2012) Macroeconomics: Understanding the Global Economy (3 ed), John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 978-1-119-99571-5 Internet Research Guidelines Additional Required Equipment Additional reading, sources and external websites will be indicated via the course website, NYU Classes & lecture notes Direct access to course website (password = nyuls2015) http://nyul.stephenhannah.com/home/intermediate-macro/ NB do not use “www” Scientific calculator, spreadsheet software (eg Excel) Suggested readings (including hyperlinks) for each session are provided on the course website Session 1 Tue 3 Feb Income & Wealth Accounting Course overview, accounting principles, interpreting GDP data, key problem areas, main identities, net lending and wealth Session 2 Tue 10 Feb Capital Accumulation Compound growth, maths and models, production basics, Cobb-Douglas function, basic Solow model and diagrams, transitions versus steady states, Golden Rule Session 3 Tue 17 Feb Productivity & Innovation TFP and growth accounting, modelling technological progress, productivity puzzles, secular stagnation and robots, governments and supply-side policy; Submit HWK#1 Session 4 Tue 24 Feb Distribution & Growth Inequality and poverty, fragile middles, international GDP comparisons, development and convergence, institutions and governance, factor flexibility and wage/profit shares; RCC BoE on Friday 27th Session 5 Tue 3 Mar Mid-term assessment 1 st 21 Century Capital Revival of Classical political economy, historical tendencies and databases, “laws” of capitalism, key Piketty themes, policy issues Session 6 Tue 10 Mar Cycles & Shocks Defining & measuring cycles, output gaps & Okun’s law , introducing stabilisation policy, shocks & propagation Session 7 Tue 17 Mar Money & Finance Money demand & supply, interest rates & IS curve, financial ratios & balance sheets, financial cycles & stability, the Great Recession Session 8 Tue 24 Mar Price & Wage Setting Wages, prices and markets, Phillips & AS curves, inflation expectations, inflation performance; Submit HWK#2 Session 9 Tue 31 Mar Monetary & Financial Policy Money & the economy, central bank strategy, tactics & operations, unconventional policy, reform & regulation Session 10 Tue 14 Apr Fiscal Policy Crowding out analysis, assessing the fiscal stance, estimating multipliers, austerity versus growth, fiscal sustainability Session 11 Tue 21 Apr Mid-term assessment 2 The FRB/US Model Overview & context, model access, sectors & structure, sample simulations Session 12 Tue 28 Apr Macro Scenarios I Model perspective, IS and TR curves, AD-AS curves, policy & credibility, closed economy model; Group presentations Page 3 of 5 Session 13 Tue 5 May Currencies & Capital Flows Accounting revisited, currencies & competitiveness, exchange rate regimes, global capital & interest rate parity Session 14 Tue 12 May Macro Scenarios II Mundell-Fleming model, interpreting IRP, exploring inflation pressures, open economy scenarios, course review Session 15 Tue 19 May Final examination Classroom Etiquette Toilet breaks should be taken before or after class or during class breaks. Food & drink, including gum, are not to be consumed in class. Mobile phones should be set on silent and should not be used in class except for emergencies. Please kindly dispose of rubbish in the bins provided. Required CoVisit to Bank of England, Threadneedle Street, London EC2R 8AH. curricular Activities Friday 27 February 2015, 3-5pm Estimated Travel Costs No significant cost British Museum Room 68 (The Citi Money Gallery) Suggested CoScience Museum Phillip’s Economic Computer 1949 curricular Activities Your Instructor http://www.stephenhannah.com/about/ NYU LONDON ACADEMIC POLICIES Plagiarism Policy Students must submit an electronic copy of each piece of their written work to www.turnitin.com. Further information about this will be provided to you separately. Late Submission of Work Written work due in class must be submitted during the class time to the professor. Late work should be submitted in person to a member of NYU London staff in the Academic Office (Room 308, 6 Bedford Square) during office hours (Mon – Fri, 10:30 – 17:30). Please also send an electronic copy to academics@nyu.ac.uk for submission to Turnitin. Work submitted within 5 weekdays after the submission time without an agreed extension receives a penalty of 10 points on the 100 point scale. Written work submitted more than 5 weekdays after the submission date without an agreed extension fails and is given a zero. Please note end of semester essays must be submitted on time. Attendance Policy Study abroad at Global Academic Centres is an academically intensive and immersive experience. Learning in such an environment depends on the active participation of all students. As classes typically meet once a week, even a single absence can cause a student to miss a significant portion of a course. To ensure the integrity of this academic experience, class attendance is mandatory and unexcused absences will be penalized with a two percent deduction from the student’s final course grade. Students are responsible for Page 4 of 5 making up any work missed due to absence. Repeated absences in a course may result in failure. How to report an absence Absences from class must be reported to NYU London administrative staff using the online Absence Form: http://tinyurl.com/nyulabsence Absences can ONLY be excused if they are reported using this form. Students should NOT approach their class instructor for an excused absence. However, students should contact their class instructor to catch up on missed work. Medical absences If you are unable to attend a class due to ill-health, you must provide details of your illness and class(es) missed to NYUL staff using the online Absence Form WITHIN SEVEN DAYS of your return to class. Please do not use the form to report a medical emergency or to request urgent assistance. In a medical emergency call 999 and ask for an ambulance. NYU London staff are available to offer support, whatever time of day. If you would like to speak to a member of staff urgently to request support with a medical problem, please call 0800 316 0469, selecting option 2. Non-medical absences If you have to miss class for an unavoidable, non-medical reason you must provide details to NYUL staff using the online Absence Form at least SEVEN DAYS PRIOR to the date(s) in question. Examples of valid non-medical reasons are as follows: religious holiday; family wedding; scholarship competition; family emergency. If in doubt please speak to a member of Academics staff or email academics@nyu.ac.uk. Further information regarding absences NYU London staff carefully monitor student attendance and absence records. In most cases full completion of the online Absence Form will be sufficient to excuse your absence. However, in certain circumstances, you will be asked to provide additional information/verification before it can be excused. If we notice that you have multiple absences you will be contacted to arrange a meeting with a member of staff. Unexcused absences from exams are not permitted and will result in failure of the exam. Students may not take an exam before or after other students in the class, and may not leave the programme before all course work has been submitted. Please refer to the NYU Wikis Page for the full absence policy: https://wikis.nyu.edu/x/awRgAw Grade conversion NYU in London uses the following scale of numerical equivalents to letter grades: A=94-100 A-=90-93 B+=87-89 B=84-86 B-=80-83 C+=77-79 C=74-76 C-=70-73 D+=67-69 D=65-66 F=below 65 Where no specific numerical equivalent is assigned to a letter grade by the class teacher, the midpoint of the range will be used in calculating the final class grade (except in the A range, where 95.5 will be used). Grading Policy Page 5 of 5 NYU in London aims to have grading standards and results in all its courses similar to those that prevail at Washington Square.
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