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MALAYSIAeBiz
Market Outlook
LIST OF MARKET REPORTS :
March 7, 2015
BURSA MALAYSIA
moving average near 1,800 support level. “The
next areas of resistance are pegged at 1,830
and 1,850 while support should come at 1,780
and 1,760 levels. “Chart-wise, the FBM KLCI
has formed a bullish daily ‘Doji Star’ candlestick,
which indicates a mild reversal at 1,800 support
level,” he said. Weekly turnover increased to
11.34 billion units worth RM11 billion from 10.45
billion units worth RM10.62 billion last week.
Main market volume rose to 6.29 billion shares
valued at RM10.15 billion from 5.91 billion
shares valued at RM9.80 billion previously.
BURSA: KL Shares Likely To Rebound
...........................................................................
1. Bursa Malaysia
2. Forex
3. Money Market
4. FBM KLCI Futures
5. Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Futures
6. Rubber Futures
7. KLIBOR Futures
8. Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM)
9. Gold Futures
By Azlee Nor Mahmud
KUALA LUMPUR -- Bursa Malaysia’s key
benchmark index, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI
(FBM KLCI), is likely to rebound next week,
driven by Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM)
accommodative policy decision and bullish
external outlook. Head of retail research at
Affin Hwang Investment Bank, Datuk Dr Nazri
Khan, said despite the false starts last week,
the FBM KLCI should find support at 1,800 and
trend higher, tracking upswings on Wall Street
and Europe as well as Asian regional indices.
“On the domestic front, Bursa Malaysia lagged
the regional market but the Malaysian economic
policy picture should attract more foreign funds
inflow. “This is true following BNM’s decision
to leave the Overnight Policy Rate unchanged
at 3.25 per cent for the fifth time,” he told
Bernama. Nazri said despite heavy profit-taking
near its 200-day moving average, the short-term
uptrend, however, remained intact with the FBM
KLCI still holding above the 20- and 50-day
FOREX: Ringgit To Consolidate
Against US Dollar
By Sharifah Pirdaus Syed Ali
KUALA LUMPUR -- The ringgit is expected to
consolidate and trade between 3.55 and 3.66
against the US dollar next week, dealers said. A
dealer said the direction of crude oil prices and
the US dollar’s performance would continue to
dictate the trend of the ringgit trading next week.
She said the US non-farm payroll data released
on Friday would further set the direction on the
dollar movements next week as it would provide
indications of whether the Federal Reserve
would increase interest. “The strong jobs data
will lift the dollar higher and put further pressure
on the ringgit while any disappointment would
help the currency consolidate and rebound,” she
told Bernama. Meanwhile, Malaysia registered
a trade surplus of RM9.01 billion in January this
year for the 207th consecutive month. In a note
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MALAYSIAeBiz : Market Outlook
Friday, RHB Research said the current account
surplus, though smaller, would likely provide an
underlying support to the fundamental values of
the ringgit, which was susceptible to fluctuations
in the short term due to volatile capital flow. For
the week just-ended, the ringgit went down
to 3.6515/6545 against the US dollar from
last Friday’s 3.6030/5050. It was also traded
lower against other major currencies except
for the euro. The ringgit depreciated against
the yen to 3.0401/0436 from 3.0204/0223 last
Friday, weakened against the Singapore dollar
to 2.6655/6681 compared with 2.6532/6562
last week and fell against the British pound
to 5.5550/5603 from 5.5436/5481 previously.
The local unit strengthened against the euro to
4.0148/0192 from last Friday’s 4.0418/0448.
benchmark three-month KLIBOR inched down
to 3.78 per cent. On Friday, the total liquidity
surplus in the conventional system was reduced
to RM22.49 billion from an earlier estimate of
RM31.83 billion. In the Islamic system, the
liquidity surplus was reduced to RM5.52 billion
from an earlier forecast of RM8.39 billion.
Following this, the central bank issued a late
conventional tender for RM22.5 billion and a
late Al-Wadiah tender for RM5 billion, both for
three-day money.
..........................................................................
KLCI Futures To Trade Higher Next
Week
By Zarul Effendi Razali
........................................................................... KUALA LUMPUR -- The FTSE Bursa Malaysia
KLCI (FBM KLCI) futures contracts (FKLI) on
Money Market: Short-Term Rates Bursa Malaysia Derivatives are expected to be
higher next week, tracking the bullish outlook
Expected To Remain Stable
KUALA LUMPUR -- Short-term rates are on the cash market. Head of retail research at
expected to remain stable next week on Bank Affin Hwang Investment Bank, Datuk Dr Nazri
Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) intervention in the Khan, said the key benchmark index was
money market to absorb surplus liquidity, dealers expected to trade higher next week on Bank
said. A dealer said the central bank was expected Negara Malaysia’s move on the Overnight
to continue to call for money market tenders on Policy Rate, coupled with bullish external
a daily basis. For the week just-ended, BNM outlook. “US Federal Reserve chairman Janet
intervened daily by conducting conventional, Yellen’s accommodative stance on interest rate
Al-Wadiah, repo, reverse repo, range maturity is one of the key movers that should provide a
auction and commodity murabahah programme positive backdrop for stocks and government
tenders to reduce excess liquidity in the system. bonds across the world. “We also note that
The tenders were conducted for between five European Central Bank’s president €60 billion
days and 33 days. The overnight rate for the a month bond-buying plan, which would
week stood at 3.21 per cent, while the one-, two- begin immediately and continue until at least
and three-week rates stood at 3.28 per cent, 3.32 September 2016, is huge enough to sustain a
per cent and 3.36 per cent, respectively. The good rally in the near term,” he told Bernama.
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On a Friday-to-Friday basis, contract month
March 2015 declined 26 points to 1,800, June
2015 slipped 23 points to 1,797 and September
2015 lost 18 points to 1,792. Turnover for the
week fell to 30,552 lots from 86,848 lots last
week while open interest narrowed to 42,865
contracts from 44,689 contracts previously. For
the week just-ended, the benchmark FBM KLCI
shed 14.25 points to 1,806.96 from 1,821.21
last Friday
...........................................................................
CPO Futures To Trade Between RM2,200
& RM2,220 A Tonne
By Azlee Nor Mahmud
Rubber Market Likely To Be
Slightly Higher
By Azlee Nor Mahmud
KUALA LUMPUR -- The Malaysian rubber
market is likely to be slightly higher next week
on improved demand, a dealer said. He told
Bernama the commitment by the six-member
International Tripartite Rubber Council (ITRC) at
a meeting in Bandung last week to collaborate
and cooperate to limit exports and stabilise
prices had provided some support for the local
rubber market. Meanwhile, International Rubber
Conference Organisation, chief executive
officer, Yium Tavarolit, said prices may improve
as wintering season set in. Tavarolit advised
rubber-producing countries to increase domestic
consumption to reduce inventory. “As usual, the
commodity is expected to track the futures prices
of regional markets for fresh direction,” he said.
He said the market would continue to monitor
the ringgit’s movements, the performance of the
regional futures market and the crude oil prices.
For the week just-ended, the rubber market
was traded mostly higher amid weaker ringgit
and increase in the prices of other commodities
such as crude oil and copper. On a Friday-toFriday basis, the Malaysian Rubber Board’s
official physical price for tyre-grade SMR20 was
three sen higher at 512 sen a kg, while latex-inbulk added 2.5 sen to 410. The unofficial closing
price for tyre-grade SMR20 declined 2.5 sen to
508.50 sen a kg, while latex-in-bulk rose 13 sen
to 411 sen a kg.
KUALA LUMPUR -- Crude palm oil (CPO)
futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives
are expected to trade between RM2,200 and
RM2,220 a tonne next week, said Interband
Group of Companies senior palm oil trader,
Jim Teh. He told Bernama trading would be
cautious ahead of the release of the highlyanticipated palm oil stock figures for February
by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Teh said the
market would also likely see profit-taking amid
speculative play as it would be compared to
crude oil and soybean oil prices. On a Fridayto-Friday basis, March 2015 eased RM9 to
RM2,312 per tonne, April 2015 and May 2015
both decreased RM17 to RM2,291 per tonne
and RM2,288 per tonne, respectively while
June 2015 declined RM25 to RM2,269 per
tonne. Weekly turnover fell to 211,813 lots from
230,307 lots last week, while open interest
increased to 240,441 contracts from 240,195 ...........................................................................
contracts previously. On the physical market,
March South inched up RM10 to RM2,330 per
tonne from last week’s RM2,320 per tonne.
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MALAYSIAeBiz : Market Outlook
KLIBOR Futures Likely To See
Little Change
between the KLTM and the LME on Friday
narrowed to US$250 a tonne from US$290 a
KUALA LUMPUR -- The three-month Kuala tonne previously.
Lumpur Interbank Offered Rate (KLIBOR) ...........................................................................
futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives
are expected to see little change next week Gold Futures Likely To Trade Lower
amid stable interest rate, a dealer said. For the KUALA LUMPUR -- Gold futures contracts on
week just-ended, the KLIBOR futures market Bursa Malaysia Derivatives are likely to trade
was untraded. Open interest was unchanged lower next week on weak buying sentiment
from last week at 1,450 contracts. On a Friday- following a strong US job data released on
to-Friday basis, March 2015, April 2015, May Friday, dealers said. A dealer said analysts were
2015 were all pegged at 96.24 while June 2015 expecting US to add 235,000 jobs in February
remained at 96.23. The underlying three-month while jobless rate to decline to 5.6 per cent from
KLIBOR inched down 0.01 per cent to 3.78 per 5.7 per cent in the previous month. “Strong
cent.
job data may send gold falling sharply and
........................................................................... swiftly as the market believed a strong report
could prompt the US Federal Reserve to soon
KLTM To Trade Around US$18,000 A increase interest rate, a move that would further
boost the dollar but in turn hurting demand for
Tonne
KUALA LUMPUR -- The Kuala Lumpur Tin non-interest-bearing assets such as gold,” he
Market (KLTM) is expected to trade around said. However, he said, the precious metal
US$18,000 a tonne level next week on buying could see a rally if the job creation figure came
interest boosted by economic stimulus package in below 230,000. For the week just-ended, the
from China, a dealer said. He said China’s local market was traded mostly lower, weighed
US$260 billion worth of infrastructure projects, by US economic recovery and concerns over
including railway construction to spur growth, the US increasing its interest rate. On Fridaywould lift demand for the metal and have spillover to-Friday basis, March 2015 added 18 ticks to
effect on tin. “Furthermore, the fundamentals RM140.50 a gramme, April 2015 gained nine
are still intact with tin stock globally stood at an ticks to RM140.85 a gramme and June 2015
average of 10,000 tonnes and has remained chalked up 24 ticks to RM141.70 a gramme.
stagnant for the past three months,” he said. May 2015 eased seven ticks to RM140.50 a
For the week just-ended, the KLTM moved gramme. Volume for the week rose to 1,543
between US$17,750 and US$18,050 a tonne, lots worth RM21.86 million from 635 lots worth
mostly driven by overseas demand and the RM8.72 million recorded last week. Open
performance on the London Metal Exchange interest on Friday was slightly higher at 3,430
(LME). European, Japanese and local traders contracts from 3,403 contracts registered last
accounted for last week’s turnover of 259 tonnes Friday.
against last week’s 243 tonnes. The premium
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